Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Unraveling urban hydro-environmental response to climate change and MCDA-based area prioritization in a data-scarce developing city.

Climate change leads to more frequent and intense heavy rainfall events, posing significant challenges for urban stormwater management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing cities of developing countries with constrained infrastructure. However, the quantitative assessment of urban stormwater, encompassing both its volume and quality, in these regions is impeded due to the scarcity of observational data and resulting limited understanding of drainage system dynamics. This study aims to elucidate the present and projected states of urban flooding, with a specific emphasis on fecal and organic contamination caused by combined sewer overflow (CSO). Leveraging a hydrological model incorporating physical and biochemical processes validated against invaluable observational data, we undertake simulations to estimate discharge, flood volume, and concentrations of suspended solids (SS), Escherichia coli (E. coli), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) within the drainage channel network of Phnom Penh City, Cambodia. Alterations in flood volumes, and pollutant concentrations and loads in overflow under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for extreme rainfall events are projected. Furthermore, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to evaluate flood risk, incorporating diverse indicators encompassing physical, social, and ecological dimensions. Our results demonstrate the exacerbating effects of climate change on flood volumes, expansion of flooded areas, prolonged durations of inundation, elevated vulnerability index, and heightened susceptibility to pollutant contamination under both scenarios, underscoring increased risks of flooding and fecal contamination. Spatial analysis identifies specific zones exhibiting heightened vulnerability to flooding and climate change, suggesting priority zones for investment in flood mitigation measures. These findings provide crucial insights for urban planning and stormwater management in regions with limited drainage infrastructure, offering essential guidance for decision-making in locales facing similar challenges.

Water availability and extreme events under climate change scenarios in an experimental watershed of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Climate change has diversified negative implications on environmental sustainability and water availability. Assessing the impacts of climate change is crucial to enhance resilience and future preparedness particularly at a watershed scale. Therefore, the goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water balance components and extreme events in Piabanha watershed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In this study, extreme climate change scenarios were developed using a wide array of global climate models acquired from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6). Two extreme climate change scenarios, DryHot and WetCool, were integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model to evaluate their impacts on the hydrological dynamics in the watershed. The baseline SWAT model was first developed and evaluated using different model performance evaluation metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSC), and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE). The model results illustrated an excellent model performance with metric values reaching 0.89 and 0.64 for monthly and daily time steps respectively in the calibration (2008 to 2017) and validation (2018 to 2023) periods. The findings of future climate change impacts assessment underscored an increase in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. In terms of streamflow, high-flow events may experience a 47.3 % increase, while low-flows could see an 76.6 % reduction. In the DryHot scenario, annual precipitation declines from 1657 to 1420 mm, with evapotranspiration reaching 54 % of precipitation, marking a 9 % rise compared to the baseline. Such changes could induce water stress in plants and lead to modifications on structural attributes of the ecosystem recognized as the Atlantic rainforest. This study established boundaries concerning the effects of climate change and highlighted the need for proactive adaptation strategies and mitigation measures to minimize the potential adverse impacts in the study watershed.

The impact of increasing ambient temperature on allergic rhinitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

INTRODUCTION: Global warming appears to initiate and aggravate allergic respiratory conditions via interaction with numerous environmental factors. Temperature, commonly identified as a factor in climate change, is important in this process. Allergic rhinitis, a common respiratory allergy, is on the rise and affects approximately 500 million individuals worldwide. The increasing ambient temperature requires evaluation regarding its influence on allergic rhinitis, taking into account regional climate zones. METHODS: A detailed search of PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, MEDLINE, and CINAHL Plus databases, was conducted, encompassing observational studies published from 1991 to 2023. Original studies examining the relationship between increasing temperature and allergic rhinitis were assessed for eligibility followed by a risk of bias assessment. Random effects meta-analysis was utilized to measure the association between a 1 °C increase in temperature and allergic rhinitis-related outcomes. RESULTS: 20 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, with nine of them subsequently selected for the quantitative synthesis. 20 included studies were rated as Level 4 evidence according to the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, and the majority of these reported good-quality evidence based on the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Rating Scale. Using the Risk of Bias In Non-Randomized Studies of Exposure tool, the majority of studies exhibit a high risk of bias. Every 1 °C increase in temperature significantly raised the risk of allergic rhinitis-related outcomes by 29 % (RR = 1.26, 95 % CI: 1.11 to 1.50). Conversely, every 1 °C rise in temperature showed no significant increase in the odds of allergic rhinitis-related outcomes by 7 % (OR = 1.07, 95 % CI: 0.95 to 1.21). Subsequent subgroup analysis identified climate zone as an influential factor influencing this association. CONCLUSION: It is inconclusive to definitively suggest a harmful effect of increasing temperature exposure on allergic rhinitis, due overall very low certainty of evidence. Further original research with better methodological quality is required.

Global terrestrial drought and its projected socioeconomic implications under different warming targets.

Droughts are increasingly frequent as the Earth warms, presenting adaptation challenges for ecosystems and human communities worldwide. A strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the integration of adaptation strategies into policies, plans, and programs (PPP) are two important approaches for enhancing climate resilience and fostering sustainable development. This study developed an innovative approach to strengthen the SEA of droughts by quantifying the impacts of future temperature increases. A novel method for projecting drought events was integrated into the SEA process by leveraging multiple data sources, including atmospheric reanalysis, reconstructions, satellite-based observations, and model simulations. We identified drought conditions using terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies and applied a random forest (RF) model for disentangling the drivers behind drought events. We then set two global warming targets (2.0 °C and 2.5 °C) and analyzed drought changes under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585). In a 2.0 °C warming world, over 50 % of the global surface will face increased drought risk. With an additional 0.5 °C increase, >60 % of the land will be prone to further drought escalation. We utilized copulas to build the joint distribution for drought duration and severity, estimating the joint return periods (JRP) for bivariate drought hazard. In tropical and subtropical regions, JRP reductions exceeding half are projected for >33 % of the regional land surface under 2.0 °C warming and for >50 % under 2.5 °C warming. Finally, we projected the impacts of drought events on population and gross domestic product (GDP). Among the three SSPs, under SSP370, population exposure is highest and GDP exposure is minimal under 2.0 °C warming. Global GDP and population risks from drought are projected to increase by 37 % and 24 %, respectively, as warming continues. This study enhances the accuracy of SEA in addressing drought risks and vulnerabilities, supporting climate-resilient planning and adaptive strategies.

Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model.

Understanding the Amazon Rainforest's response to shifts in precipitation is paramount with regard to its sensitivity to climate change and deforestation. Studies using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically only explore a range of socio-economically plausible pathways. In this study, we applied the state-of-the-art DGVM LPJmL to simulate the Amazon forest's response under idealized scenarios where precipitation is linearly decreased and subsequently increased between current levels and zero. Our results indicate a nonlinear but reversible relationship between vegetation Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), suggesting a threshold at a critical MAP value, below which vegetation biomass decline accelerates with decreasing MAP. We find that approaching this critical threshold is accompanied by critical slowing down, which can hence be expected to warn of accelerating biomass decline with decreasing rainfall. The critical precipitation threshold is lowest in the northwestern Amazon, whereas the eastern and southern regions may already be below their critical MAP thresholds. Overall, we identify the seasonality of precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) as the most important parameters determining the threshold value. While vegetation fires show little effect on the critical threshold and the biomass pattern in general, the ability of trees to adapt to water stress by investing in deep roots leads to increased biomass and a lower critical threshold in some areas in the eastern and southern Amazon where seasonality and PET are high. Our findings underscore the risk of Amazon forest degradation due to changes in the water cycle, and imply that regions that are currently characterized by higher water availability may exhibit heightened vulnerability to future drying.

Chronic kidney disease, dialysis and climate change.

Chronic Kidney Disease is a serious public health problem and in clear relation to Climate Change and ecosystem maintenance. Renal health is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and dialysis therapy (hemodialysis and PD) has a significant environmental footprint, conditioned by energy consumption and greenhouse gas production. In the last 50 years, people have changed ecosystems faster and more extensively than in any other period in human history. It is a consequence of ever-increasing demand for food, fresh water, fuel, industry, etc. and the result has been a substantial and largely irreversible loss of the diversity of life on Earth. Since 1979, human activities have caused the extinction of 60% of mammals, birds, fish and reptiles. There is an urgent need to adopt "Green Nephrology" measures by developing sustainable environmental solutions for the prevention and treatment of kidney diseases.

Assessing the relationship between malaria incidence levels and meteorological factors using cluster-integrated regression.

This paper introduces a novel approach to modeling malaria incidence in Nigeria by integrating clustering strategies with regression modeling and leveraging meteorological data. By decomposing the datasets into multiple subsets using clustering techniques, we increase the number of explanatory variables and elucidate the role of weather in predicting different ranges of incidence data. Our clustering-integrated regression models, accompanied by optimal barriers, provide insights into the complex relationship between malaria incidence and well-established influencing weather factors such as rainfall and temperature.We explore two models. The first model incorporates lagged incidence and individual-specific effects. The second model focuses solely on weather components. Selection of a model depends on decision-makers priorities. The model one is recommended for higher predictive accuracy. Moreover, our findings reveal significant variability in malaria incidence, specific to certain geographic clusters and beyond what can be explained by observed weather variables alone.Notably, rainfall and temperature exhibit varying marginal effects across incidence clusters, indicating their differential impact on malaria transmission. High rainfall correlates with lower incidence, possibly due to its role in flushing mosquito breeding sites. On the other hand, temperature could not predict high-incidence cases, suggesting that other factors other than temperature contribute to high cases.Our study addresses the demand for comprehensive modeling of malaria incidence, particularly in regions like Nigeria where the disease remains prevalent. By integrating clustering techniques with regression analysis, we offer a nuanced understanding of how predetermined weather factors influence malaria transmission. This approach aids public health authorities in implementing targeted interventions. Our research underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors in malaria control efforts and highlights the potential of weather-based forecasting for proactive disease management.

Global trend and epidemiological profiles of climate-related disasters from 2000 to 2021.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to analyse the epidemiological profile of global climate-related disasters in terms of morbidity and mortality, as well as to examine their temporal trends. METHOD: This cross-sectional study analysed climate-related global disasters from 2000 to 2021, utilising definitions and criteria from the United Nations Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Data were sourced from the EM-DAT database. The study assessed trends over the entire period and compared them with previous years (1978-2000). RESULTS: A total of 7398 climate-related disasters were recorded, with hydrological disasters being the most frequent, followed by meteorological and climatological disasters. Statistically significant differences were noted in the average rates of affected individuals and injuries per million inhabitants. No significant trends were found in mortality rates, but the frequency trends for the entire period (1978-2021) and the subperiod (1978-2000) were increasing and statistically significant. However, the trend from 2000 onwards showed a non-significant decrease, potentially reflecting better disaster preparedness and response strategies under the Hyogo and Sendai Framework. CONCLUSION: The study highlights hydrological disasters as the most frequent and deadliest climate-related events, with climatological disasters affecting and injuring the most people. The lack of standardised criteria for disaster inclusion in databases presents a significant challenge in comparing results and analysing trends. Establishing uniform inclusion criteria is crucial for effective data analysis and disaster management.

Beyond School Climate: Conceptualizing the School as a Protective Factor Approach.

BACKGROUND: The school climate concept has been promising, but has long-standing critiques that have not been adequately addressed to date. The School as a Protective Factor approach represents one attempt to offer a new approach that builds on and extends beyond the concept of school climate while addressing previously identified limitations. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THEORY: The School as a Protective Factor approach offers a new framework for conceptualizing, measuring, and establishing protective school social and learning environments that co-promote academic achievement and student health in schools, especially student mental health and substance use/abuse prevention. This new framework includes clear definitions, explicit goals, firmly established constructs, validated measures, and an intentionally parsimonious approach that prioritizes the implementation of well-established, high-impact constructs. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL HEALTH POLICY, PRACTICE, AND EQUITY: The School as a Protective Factor approach presents a simple, easy-to-use means of ensuring a school social environment that meets the developmental, academic, and health needs of all children and adolescents while maximizing protection across a range of desired outcomes. Perhaps most importantly, it does so in a manner that is manageable and easily integrated into every aspect of schooling, resonates with the practical experience of school personnel, and includes brief, effective, and free measurement tools.

Genome-wide association study reveals marker-trait associations for major agronomic traits in proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.).

MAIN CONCLUSION: The pilot-scale genome-wide association study in the US proso millet identified twenty marker-trait associations for five morpho-agronomic traits identifying genomic regions for future studies (e.g. molecular breeding and map-based cloning). Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) is an ancient grain recognized for its excellent water-use efficiency and short growing season. It is an indispensable part of the winter wheat-based dryland cropping system in the High Plains of the USA. Its grains are endowed with high nutritional and health-promoting properties, making it increasingly popular in the global market for healthy grains. There is a dearth of genomic resources in proso millet for developing molecular tools to complement conventional breeding for developing high-yielding varieties. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is a widely used method to dissect the genetics of complex traits. In this pilot study of the first-ever GWAS in the US proso millet, 71 globally diverse genotypes of 109 the US proso millet core collection were evaluated for five major morpho-agronomic traits at two locations in western Nebraska, and GWAS was conducted to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with these traits. Analysis of variance showed that there was a significant difference among the genotypes, and all five traits were also found to be highly correlated with each other. Sequence reads from genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) were used to identify 11,147 high-quality bi-allelic SNPs. Population structure analysis with those SNPs showed stratification within the core collection. The GWAS identified twenty marker-trait associations (MTAs) for the five traits. Twenty-nine putative candidate genes associated with the five traits were also identified. These genomic regions can be used to develop genetic markers for marker-assisted selection in proso millet breeding.

Salinity-induced desertification in oasis ecosystems: challenges and future directions.

Salinity-induced desertification is a pressing environmental issue that poses a significant threat to the sustainability of oasis ecosystems worldwide. These ecosystems are vital to the livelihoods of millions of people living in hyper-arid, arid and semi-arid regions, providing essential resources such as food, water and other necessities. However, overexploitation of natural resources, changes in land use and climate change have led to the degradation of these ecosystems, resulting in soil salinisation, waterlogging and other adverse effects. Combating salinity-induced desertification requires a comprehensive approach that addresses both the underlying causes of ecosystem degradation and the direct consequences for local communities. The strategy may include measures for sustainable land use, reforestation and water conservation. It is also essential to involve local communities in these activities and to ensure that their perspectives are heard. The aim of this article is to examine the causes and processes of salinity-induced desertification in oasis ecosystems and the implications for their sustainability. It also examines strategies that are being used to prevent desertification and promote sustainable oasis management. This article aims to raise awareness of this critical issue and to promote action towards a more sustainable future.

Environmental impacts of shifts in surface urban heat island, emissions, and nighttime light during the Russia-Ukraine war in Ukrainian cities.

As recent geopolitical conflicts and climate change escalate, the effects of war on the atmosphere remain uncertain, in particular in the context of the recent large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. We use satellite remote sensing techniques to establish the effects that reduced human activities in urban centers of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Mariupol) have on Land Surface Temperatures (LST), Urban Heat Islands (UHI), emissions, and nighttime light. A variety of climate indicators, such as hot spots, changes in the intensity and area of the UHI, and changes in LST thresholds during 2022, are differentiated with pre-war conditions as a reference period (i.e., 2012-2022). Findings show that nighttime hot spots in 2022 for all three cities cover a smaller area than during the reference period, with a maximum decrease of 3.9% recorded for Donetsk. The largest areal decrease of nighttime UHI is recorded for Kharkiv (- 12.86%). Our results for air quality changes show a significant decrease in carbon monoxide (- 2.7%, based on the average for the three cities investigated) and an increase in Absorbing Aerosol Index (27.2%, based on the average for the three cities investigated) during the war (2022), compared to the years before the war (2019-2021). The 27.2% reduction in nighttime urban light during the first year of the war, compared to the years before the war, provides another measure of conflict-impact in the socio-economic urban environment. This study demonstrates the innovative application of satellite remote sensing to provide unique insights into the local-scale atmospheric consequences of human-related disasters, such as war. The use of high-resolution satellite data allows for the detection of subtle changes in urban climates and air quality, which are crucial for understanding the broader environmental impacts of geopolitical conflicts. Our approach not only enhances the understanding of war-related impacts on urban environments but also underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and assessment to inform policy and mitigation strategies.

An arctic breeding songbird overheats during intense activity even at low air temperatures.

Birds maintain some of the highest body temperatures among endothermic animals. Often deemed a selective advantage for heat tolerance, high body temperatures also limits birds' thermal safety margin before reaching lethal levels. Recent modelling suggests that sustained effort in Arctic birds might be restricted at mild air temperatures, which may require reductions in activity to avoid overheating, with expected negative impacts on reproductive performance. We measured within-individual changes in body temperature in calm birds and then in response to an experimental increase in activity in an outdoor captive population of Arctic, cold-specialised snow buntings (Plectrophenax nivalis), exposed to naturally varying air temperatures (- 15 to 36 °C). Calm buntings exhibited a modal body temperature range from 39.9 to 42.6 °C. However, we detected a significant increase in body temperature within minutes of shifting calm birds to active flight, with strong evidence for a positive effect of air temperature on body temperature (slope = 0.04 °C/ °C). Importantly, by an ambient temperature of 9 °C, flying buntings were already generating body temperatures ≥ 45 °C, approaching the upper thermal limits of organismal performance (45-47 °C). With known limited evaporative heat dissipation capacities in these birds, our results support the recent prediction that free-living buntings operating at maximal sustainable rates will increasingly need to rely on behavioural thermoregulatory strategies to regulate body temperature, to the detriment of nestling growth and survival.

Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential.

We investigated trends in temperature, stratification, and hypolimnetic oxygen concentration of German lakes under climate change using observational data and hydrodynamic modelling. Observations from 46 lakes revealed that annually averaged surface temperatures increased by + 0.5 °C between 1990 and 2020 while bottom temperatures remained almost constant. Modelling of 12 lakes predicted further increases in surface temperatures by 0.3 °C/decade until the year 2099 in the most pessimistic emission scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5: + 0.18 °C/decade; RCP 2.6: + 0.04 °C/decade). Again, bottom temperatures increased much less while summer stratification extended by up to 38 days. Using a simplified oxygen model, we showed that hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations decreased by 0.7-1.9 mg L-1 in response to the extended stratification period. However, model runs assuming lower productivity (e. g. through nutrient reduction) resulted in increased oxygen concentrations even in the most pessimistic emission scenario. Our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on the oxygen budget of lakes can be efficiently mitigated by nutrient control.

A new high spatial density temperature dataset in the Grenoble alpine valley (France) for urban heat island investigation and climate services dedicated to municipalities purposes.

Within the study of the urban heat island (UHI) in Echirolles and Grenoble (France, the eastern part of the alpine arc), two temperature measurement networks have been deployed. The aim is to measure the temperature gradients associated with the UHI in summer. A total of 62 measurement points has been installed in the various neighborhoods on 3-meter-high streetlights, starting in summer 2019. The preliminary classification of the different neighborhood typologies according to ``Local Climate Zone'' guided the choice of location for the temperature sensors. These urban observations respond to a dual challenge: firstly, to observe temperature located in complex topographical situations with valleys, and secondly, to observe the urban climate in neighborhoods where social considerations are important. Municipalities of Echirolles and Grenoble were involved in the investigation. The ADEME-funded (The French Agency for Ecological Transition) CASSANDRE research program analyzes and processes these observations to study the vulnerability of inhabitants to heat waves and more generally to summer heat stress.

Temporal patterns in multiple stressors shape the vulnerability of overwintering Arctic zooplankton.

The Arctic polar nights bring extreme environmental conditions characterised by cold and darkness, which challenge the survival of organisms in the Arctic. Additionally, multiple anthropogenic stressors can amplify the pressure on the fragile Arctic ecosystems during this period. Determining how multiple anthropogenic stressors may affect the survival of Arctic life is crucial for ecological risk assessments and management, but this topic is understudied. For the first time, our study investigates the complex interactions of multiple stressors, exploring stressor temporal dynamics and exposure duration on a key Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis during the polar nights. We conducted experiments with pulse (intermittent) and press (continuous) exposure scenarios, involving microplastics, pyrene and warming in a fully factorial design. We observed significant effects on copepod survival, with pronounced impacts during later stressor phases. We also detected two-way interactions between microplastics and pyrene, as well as pyrene and warming, further intensified with the presence of a third stressor. Continuous stressor exposure for 9 days (press-temporal scenario) led to greater reductions in copepod survival compared to the pulse-temporal scenario, characterised by two 3-day stressor exposure phases. Notably, the inclusion of recovery phases, free from stressor exposure, positively influenced copepod survival, highlighting the importance of temporal exposure dynamics. We did not find behaviour to be affected by the different treatments. Our findings underscore the intricate interactions amongst multiple stressors and their temporal patterns in shaping the vulnerability of overwintering Arctic copepods with crucial implications for managing Arctic aquatic ecosystems under the fastest rate of ongoing climate change on earth.

Gene networks governing the response of a calcareous sponge to future ocean conditions reveal lineage-specific XBP1 regulation of the unfolded protein response.

Marine sponges are predicted to be winners in the future ocean due to their exemplary adaptive capacity. However, while many sponge groups exhibit tolerance to a wide range of environmental insults, calcifying sponges may be more susceptible to thermo-acidic stress. To describe the gene regulatory networks that govern the stress response of the calcareous sponge, Leucetta chagosensis (class Calcarea, order Clathrinida), individuals were subjected to warming and acidification conditions based on the climate models for 2100. Transcriptome analysis and gene co-expression network reconstruction revealed that the unfolded protein response (UPR) was activated under thermo-acidic stress. Among the upregulated genes were two lineage-specific homologs of X-box binding protein 1 (XBP1), a transcription factor that activates the UPR. Alternative dimerization between these XBP1 gene products suggests a clathrinid-specific mechanism to reversibly sequester the transcription factor into an inactive form, enabling the rapid regulation of pathways linked to the UPR in clathrinid calcareous sponges. Our findings support the idea that transcription factor duplication events may refine evolutionarily conserved molecular pathways and contribute to ecological success.

Higher thermal plasticity in flowering phenology increases flowering output.

Ongoing climate change poses an increasing threat to biodiversity. To avoid decline or extinction, species need to either adjust or adapt to new environmental conditions or track their climatic niches across space. In sessile organisms such as plants, phenotypic plasticity can help maintain fitness in variable and even novel environmental conditions and is therefore likely to play an important role in allowing them to survive climate change, particularly in the short term. Understanding a species' response to rising temperature is crucial for planning well-targeted and cost-effective conservation measures. We sampled seeds of three Hypericum species (H. maculatum, H. montanum, and H. perforatum), from a total of 23 populations originating from different parts of their native distribution areas in Europe. We grew them under four different temperature regimes in a greenhouse to simulate current and predicted future climatic conditions in the distribution areas. We measured flowering start, flower count, and subsequent seed weight, allowing us to study variations in the thermal plasticity of flowering phenology and its relation to fitness. Our results show that individuals flowered earlier with increasing temperature, while the degree of phenological plasticity varied among species. More specifically, the plasticity of H. maculatum varied depending on population origin, with individuals from the leading range edge being less plastic. Importantly, we show a positive relationship between higher plasticity and increased flower production, indicating adaptive phenological plasticity. The observed connection between plasticity and fitness supports the idea that plasticity may be adaptive. This study underlines the need for information on plasticity for predicting species' potential to thrive under global change and the need for studies on whether higher phenotypic plasticity is currently being selected as natural populations experience a rapidly changing climate.

Global wheat planting suitability under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets.

The potential distribution of crops will be impacted by climate change, but there is limited research on potential wheat distributions under specific global warming targets. This study employed the Maxent model to predict the potential distribution of wheat under the 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets based on data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) multimodel ensemble, and the effect of global warming on wheat planting suitability was analyzed. Our results indicated global warming would significantly change wheat planting suitability. Over half of the areas experienced changes in wheat planting suitability under two warming targets, and the effect became more pronounced with increasing temperatures. Additionally, global warming might promote wheat planting in more regions. The area with an increase in wheat planting suitability was observed to be 9% higher than those experiencing a decrease on average. Moreover, global warming could exacerbate the disparity between global wheat supply and demand in countries/regions. Traditional wheat-producing countries/regions are poised to benefit from the warming effects of climate change, while less developed and wheat import-dependent countries/regions may face greater challenges in achieving wheat self-sufficiency. To address this potential challenge, the promotion and inter-regional exchange of agronomic technologies, and the development of more rational trade standards are urgently needed. Since socioeconomic factors have a significant impact on wheat cultivation, further investigation is required to determine how the wheat planting distribution may change in the future under the combined impact of climate change, supply-demand relationship, and policy.