Severe cold-water bleaching of a deep-water reef underscores future challenges for Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems.

Elevated sea surface temperatures are causing an increase in coral bleaching events worldwide, and represent an existential threat to coral reefs. Early studies of Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems (MCEs) highlighted their potential as thermal refuges for shallow-water coral species in the face of predicted 21st century warming. However, recent genetic evidence implies that limited ecological connectivity between shallow- and deep-water coral communities inhibits their effectiveness as refugia; instead MCEs host distinct endemic communities that are ecologically significant in and of themselves. In either scenario, understanding the response of MCEs to climate change is critical given their ecological significance and widespread global distribution. Such an understanding has so far eluded the community, however, because of the challenges associated with long-term field monitoring, the stochastic nature of climatic events that drive bleaching, and the paucity of deep-water observations. Here we document the first observed cold-water bleaching of a mesophotic coral reef at Clipperton Atoll, a remote Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) atoll with high coral cover and a well-developed MCE. The severe bleaching (>70 % partially or fully bleached coral cover at 32 m depth) was driven by an anomalously shallow thermocline, and highlights a significant and previously unreported challenge for MCEs. Prompted by these observations, we compiled published cold-water bleaching events for the ETP, and demonstrate that the timing of past cold-water bleaching events in the ETP coincides with decadal oscillations in mean zonal wind strength and thermocline depth. The latter observation suggests any future intensification of easterly winds in the Pacific could be a significant concern for its MCEs. Our observations, in combination with recent reports of warm-water bleaching of Red Sea and Indian Ocean MCEs, highlight that 21st century MCEs in the Eastern Pacific face a two-pronged challenge: warm-water bleaching from above, and cold-water bleaching from below.

Interannual and seasonal variability and future forecasting of pCO2(water) using the ARIMA model and CO2 fluxes in a tropical estuary.

The seasonal and interannual variation in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in water [pCO2(water)] and air-water CO2 exchange in the Mahanadi estuary situated on the east coast of India was studied between March 2013 and March 2021. The principal aim of the study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variability and future trend of pCO2 and air-water CO2 fluxes along with the related carbonate chemistry parameters like water temperature, pH, salinity, nutrients, and total alkalinity, over 9 years. The seasonal CO2 flux over nine years was also calculated using five worldwide accepted equations. The seasonal map of pCO2(water) followed a general trend of being high in monsoon (2628 ± 3484 µatm) associated with high river inflow and low during pre-monsoon (445.6 ± 270.0 µatm). High pCO2 in water compared to the atmosphere (average 407.6-409.4 µatm) was observed in the estuary throughout the sampling period. The CO2 efflux computed using different gas transfer velocity formulas was also consistent with pCO2 water acquiring the peak during monsoon in the Mahanadi estuary (6033 ± 9478 µmol m-2 h-1) and trough during pre-monsoon (21.66± 187.2 µmol m-2 h-1). The estuary acted as a net source of CO2 throughout the study period, with significant seasonality in the flux magnitudes. However, CO2 sequestration via photosynthesis by phytoplankton resulted in lower emission rates toward the atmosphere in summer. This study uses the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast pCO2(water) for the future. Using measured and predicted values, our work demonstrated that pCO2(water) has an upward trend in the Mahanadi estuary. Our results demonstrate that long-term observations from estuaries should be prioritized to upscale the global carbon budget.

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability.

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific-central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical-extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

Intra-Decadal (2012-2021) Dynamics of Spatial Ichthyoplankton Distribution in Sevastopol Bay (Black Sea) Affected by Hydrometeorological Factors.

High mortality of fish in the early stages of ontogenesis requires the detection of factors affecting it and is an extremely important problem. For this reason, we tried to consider the influence of some hydrometeorological factors on the intra-decadal dynamics and spatial distribution of ichthyoplankton abundance in Sevastopol Bay. To this end, we analyzed ichthyoplankton samples collected in 2012−2021 in Sevastopol Bay, and the four districts were identified. The ichthyoplankton distribution by areas was associated with the peculiarities of the pollution distribution. The maximum numbers in eggs (34.7 ± 7.5 ind. m−2) and larvae (10.0 ± 2.4 ind. m−2) were recorded in July−August. For the first time, a positive effect of temperature and repeatability of north and northeast winds on the ichthyoplankton number during the summer spawning in all identified areas of Sevastopol Bay using principal component analysis (PCA) was reported. In the southern region, positive influence of temperature and northerly winds on the ichthyoplankton abundance was confirmed by ANOVA (p = 0.02), and Pearson's correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between these parameters on inter-annual scale (r > 0.5). In the eastern area, the discharge of rivers is an additional factor affecting the abundance of ichthyoplankton, while in the western and central areas, these factors were the wind characteristics caused by the orography peculiarities. The pollution spread in Sevastopol Bay is also largely due to the wind regime. The importance of comprehensive monitoring studies using intra-decadal data on ichthyoplankton is emphasized.

Spatiotemporal propagating decadal signal of ocean heat content and thermocline depth identified in the tropical Pacific.

Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and its mechanisms are essential for understanding long-term variations in global climate. The spatiotemporal pattern of this decadal variation has yet to be clarified. Here, on the basis of observational data with the help of the adaptive data analysis method, we extracted and investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of the tropical Pacific decadal variability in upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and thermocline depth. The tropical decadal signal propagated eastward along the equator from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific after the 1970s, with a speed of 4-5 cm s-1 yielding a decadal oscillation of approximately 11-13 years. This decadal variability of the thermocline fluctuations (UOHC) was proven to be closely correlated with western wind anomalies since the 1970s and may have been induced by the regime shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation. These peaks of decadal signals corresponded well with the strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, reflecting nonlinear rectification of ENSOs on TPDV. Moreover, the TPDV showed a modulating signal on moderate and weak ENSO events.

Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability. During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes. Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV. We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence is mediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.

Influence of Arctic sea-ice variability on Pacific trade winds.

A conceptual model connecting seasonal loss of Arctic sea ice to midlatitude extreme weather events is applied to the 21st-century intensification of Central Pacific trade winds, emergence of Central Pacific El Nino events, and weakening of the North Pacific Aleutian Low Circulation. According to the model, Arctic Ocean warming following the summer sea-ice melt drives vertical convection that perturbs the upper troposphere. Static stability calculations show that upward convection occurs in annual 40- to 45-d episodes over the seasonally ice-free areas of the Beaufort-to-Kara Sea arc. The episodes generate planetary waves and higher-frequency wave trains that transport momentum and heat southward in the upper troposphere. Regression of upper tropospheric circulation data on September sea-ice area indicates that convection episodes produce wave-mediated teleconnections between the maximum ice-loss region north of the Siberian Arctic coast and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These teleconnections generate oppositely directed trade-wind anomalies in the Central and Eastern Pacific during boreal winter. The interaction of upper troposphere waves with the ITCZ air-sea column may also trigger Central Pacific El Nino events. Finally, waves reflected northward from the ITCZ air column and/or generated by triggered El Nino events may be responsible for the late winter weakening of the Aleutian Low Circulation in recent years.

Ecological correlates of blue whale movement behavior and its predictability in the California Current Ecosystem during the summer-fall feeding season.

BACKGROUND: Species distribution models have shown that blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) occur seasonally in high densities in the most biologically productive regions of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Satellite telemetry studies have additionally shown that blue whales in the CCE regularly switch between behavioral states consistent with area-restricted searching (ARS) and transiting, indicative of foraging in and moving among prey patches, respectively. However, the relationship between the environmental correlates that serve as a proxy of prey relative to blue whale movement behavior has not been quantitatively assessed. METHODS: We investigated the association between blue whale behavioral state and environmental predictors in the coastal environments of the CCE using a long-term satellite tracking data set (72 tagged whales; summer-fall months 1998-2008), and predicted the likelihood of ARS behavior at tracked locations using nonparametric multiplicative regression models. The models were built using data from years of cool, productive conditions and validated against years of warm, low-productivity conditions. RESULTS: The best model contained four predictors: chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and seafloor aspect and depth. This model estimated highest ARS likelihood (> 0.8) in areas with high chlorophyll-a levels (> 0.65 mg/m3), intermediate sea surface temperatures (11.6-17.5 °C), and shallow depths (< 850 m). Overall, the model correctly predicted behavioral state throughout the coastal environments of the CCE, while the validation indicated an ecosystem-wide reduction in ARS likelihood during warm years, especially in the southern portion. For comparison, a spatial coordinates model (longitude × latitude) performed slightly better than the environmental model during warm years, providing further evidence that blue whales exhibit strong foraging site fidelity, even when conditions are not conducive to successful foraging. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that blue whale behavioral state in the CCE was predictable from environmental correlates and that ARS behavior was most prevalent in regions of known high whale density, likely reflecting where large prey aggregations consistently develop in summer-fall. Our models of whale movement behavior enhanced our understanding of species distribution by further indicating where foraging was more likely, which could be of value in the identification of key regions of importance for endangered species in management considerations. The models also provided evidence that decadal-scale environmental fluctuations can drive shifts in the distribution and foraging success of this blue whale population.

The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink.

The CO2 uptake by the Southern Ocean (<35°S) varies substantially on all timescales and is a major determinant of the variations of the global ocean carbon sink. Particularly strong are the decadal changes characterized by a weakening period of the Southern Ocean carbon sink in the 1990s and a rebound after 2000. The weakening in the 1990s resulted primarily from a southward shift of the westerlies that enhanced the upwelling and outgassing of respired (i.e., natural) CO2. The concurrent reduction in the storage rate of anthropogenic CO2 in the mode and intermediate waters south of 35°S suggests that this shift also decreased the uptake of anthropogenic CO2. The rebound and the subsequent strong, decade-long reinvigoration of the carbon sink appear to have been driven by cooling in the Pacific Ocean, enhanced stratification in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors, and a reduced overturning. Current-generation ocean models generally do not reproduce these variations and are poorly skilled at making decadal predictions in this region.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability.

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Role of climate anomalies on decadal variation in the occurrence of wintertime haze in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

The wintertime haze day (HD) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China shows a significant upward trend during the past decades due to the rapid industrialization and urbanization. Besides the enhanced anthropogenic emission, climate change also plays the important role in the long term HD variations. In this study, the significant decadal variation of wintertime HD during the period 1960-2012 in YRD is examined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, featured as less HD occurrence before 1980 and more occurrence after 2000. The numerical simulations by the global transport and chemical model (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, MOZART) with the same emission inventory suggest 8.4% enhancement of wintertime PM2.5 (particulate matter with the equivalent diameter of air dynamics less than or equal to 2.5µm) mass concentration in YRD during 2001-2009 compared with that during 1971-1979 attributed to meteorological changes, indicating the significant effect of climate anomaly on the decadal variations of wintertime HD. Through the composite analysis on the atmospheric dynamical and thermal conditions based on the reanalysis data, the faster warming in the lower and middle troposphere over the continent in the recent decade is suggested to be important for the out-of-phase decadal HD variation in YRD. The thermal anomaly not only reverses the zonal thermal difference of land-sea to stimulate the anomalous southerlies over YRD leading to reduced prevailing north wind in winter, but also develops the deep inversion below the mid-troposphere to enhance the atmospheric stability. As a result, more frequent and persistent air stagnations in recent decade are expected for the reduction of atmospheric horizontal dispersion and vertical diffusion capacity leading to more occurrence of wintertime HD in YRD.

Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015.

Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. RECENT FINDINGS: The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. SUMMARY: Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.

Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land.

Global air temperature has become the primary metric for judging global climate change. The variability of global temperature on a decadal timescale is still poorly understood. This paper examines further one suggested hypothesis, that variations in solar radiation reaching the surface (Rs) have caused much of the observed decadal temperature variability. Because Rs only heats air during the day, its variability is plausibly related to the variability of diurnal temperature range (daily maximum temperature minus its minimum). We show that the variability of diurnal temperature range is consistent with the variability of Rs at timescales from monthly to decadal. This paper uses long comprehensive datasets for diurnal temperature range to establish what has been the contribution of Rs to decadal temperature variability. It shows that Rs over land globally peaked in the 1930s, substantially decreased from the 1940s to the 1970s, and changed little after that. Reduction of Rs caused a reduction of more than 0.2 °C in mean temperature during May to October from the 1940s through the 1970s, and a reduction of nearly 0.2 °C in mean air temperature during November to April from the 1960s through the 1970s. This cooling accounts in part for the near-constant temperature from the 1930s into the 1970s. Since then, neither the rapid increase in temperature from the 1970s through the 1990s nor the slowdown of warming in the early twenty-first century appear to be significantly related to changes of Rs.