Cost-effectiveness of probiotics and fluoride varnish in caries prevention in preschool children.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two preventive interventions aimed at increasing the proportion of caries-free preschool children of low socioeconomic status using a decision analytic model. METHODS: Two scenarios were tested, one with a school milk program (SMP) and one without (non-SMP). Fluoride varnish (FV) and a probiotic (PB) were compared to a do-nothing alternative among children in public nurseries/schools over a 4-year period. FV was applied biannually and a PB (Lactobacillus rhamnosus) added to milk powder prepared daily. A Markov decision tree model was utilized. Several sources of data were used to populate the model. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed, and a public provider perspective was used. RESULTS: In the SMP scenario, PB was more effective and less costly than FV and, compared with do-nothing, increased the proportion of caries-free children by 14.5%, with a cost of USD 12.5 per child (June 2018). PB presented an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) or cost per extra caries-free child of USD 86.2. In the non-SMP scenario, both interventions were cost-effective. FV (compared with do-nothing) increased the percentage of caries-free children by 8.3% with an ICER of USD 338.3 and PB (compared with FV) increased the effect by 6.2% with an ICER of USD 1400.2. CONCLUSIONS: The findings showed that PB was most effective and less costly than FV in the SMP scenario only. This type of analysis and its results provide essential information for decision-makers to improve the oral health of preschool children.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of switching from a trivalent to a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in the Peruvian immunisation programme.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza is an acute respiratory infection mostly caused by type A and B influenza viruses. The severe form of the infection can be life-threatening and lead to a significant burden. Vaccination is the most efficient way of preventing influenza infections and limit this burden. OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of switching from a trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) to a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) in the vaccination programme in Peru, and to evaluate the health and economic impact of reaching the vaccination coverage rate targeted by the Ministry of Health. METHODS: A decision-analytic static cost-effectiveness model, was adapted to the Peruvian setting under both payer and societal perspectives. RESULTS: A switch from TIV to QIV would prevent 29,126 additional cases (including 12,815 consultations), 54 hospitalisations, and 23 deaths related to influenza, mostly in the population <2 years-old and >60 years-old. This would lead to a saving of US $505,206 under the payer perspective, that would partially offset the investment necessary to introduce QIV into the immunisation programme. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is $16,649 per QALYs gained. The main drivers of the model results were vaccine efficacy against influenza B viruses, degree of match, vaccines prices and proportion of cases attributable to influenza B. The robustness of the results seems satisfactory as QIV has the probability of being a cost-effective strategy of 83.8% (considering a threshold of three GDP per capita). Reaching the coverage targeted by the Ministry of Health would result in health benefits and disease management savings, and lower ICERs. CONCLUSION: Introducing QIV instead of TIV in the Peruvian immunisation programme is expected to be a cost-effective strategy, especially in younger children and the elderly. The benefit of QIV would be even more important if the coverage targeted by the Ministry of Health would be reached in the most vulnerable groups.

Brazilian Analytical Decision Model for Cardiovascular Disease: An Adaptation of the Scottish Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the significant impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD), there is not yet an analytical decision tool for assessing efficiency of interventions to prevent primary CVD events in Brazil. Therefore, we sought to adapt a Scottish CVD Policy Model to be used in the proposed population. METHODS: Calibration consisted of identifying multiplicative factors for linear predictors of existing survival analysis models to produce predictions that closely match observed data (Life-table and Brazilian cohort study). Target data were life expectancy (LE) and cumulative incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), fatal CVD and fatal non-CVD. Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) was used to estimate differences between predictions and observations. Acceptance criteria were defined as a fit of less than one year for LE and 1% for cumulative incidence. Male and female models were built separately. RESULTS: The original model underestimated LE (RMSE=2.85 for men and 1.91 for women), CHD and CBVD for women (RMSE=0.044 and 0.041, respectively). The calibration process identified multiplicative factors to reach acceptance criteria for the four target data mentioned above (RMSE=0.61, 0.21, 0.016 and 0.017, respectively). Over prediction was identified only for CHD events in men (RMSE=0.031) being further calibrated (RMSE=0.008). All other target data met the acceptance criteria. Overall, the calibrated model predicts properly to individuals aging 35-80 years old, diabetics or not, smokers or not, with or without family history of CVD, and presenting at least one of the risk factors uncontrolled: Systolic Blood Pressure, Total Cholesterol or HDL-Cholesterol. DISCUSSION: This is the first decision analytic model capable of assessing efficiency of interventions that prevent primary CVD events in Brazil. In future research, independent external validation should be carried out to corroborate the reliability of the model outputs.