Assumptions, uncertainty, and catastrophic/existential risk: National risk assessments need improved methods and stakeholder engagement.

Two key shortcomings of national risk assessments (NRAs) are: (1) lack of justification and transparency around important foundational assumptions of the process, (2) omission of almost all the largest scale risks. Using a demonstration set of risks, we illustrate how NRA process assumptions around time horizon, discount rate, scenario choice, and decision rule impact on risk characterization and therefore any subsequent ranking. We then identify a neglected set of large-scale risks that are seldom included in NRAs, namely global catastrophic risks and existential threats to humanity. Under a highly conservative approach that considers only simple probability and impact metrics, the use of significant discount rates, and harms only to those currently alive at the time, we find these risks have likely salience far greater than their omission from national risk registers might suggest. We highlight the substantial uncertainty inherent in NRAs and argue that this is reason for more engagement with stakeholders and experts. Widespread engagement with an informed public and experts would legitimize key assumptions, encourage critique of knowledge, and ease shortcomings of NRAs. We advocate for a deliberative public tool that can support informed two-way communication between stakeholders and governments. We outline the first component of such a tool for communication and exploration of risks and assumptions. The most important factors for an "all hazards" approach to NRA are ensuring license for key assumptions and that all the salient risks are included before proceeding to ranking of risks and considering resource allocation and value.

Food production in space from CO2 using microbial electrosynthesis.

The current food method in space is launching prepackaged food which is costly and unsustainable. Alternatives include growing crops and microalgae single cell protein (SCP) using artificial light photosynthesis, which are energy inefficient. Prepackaged food and microalgae food were compared to microbial electrosynthesis of acetic acid (MES-AA). Since the dominant cost of a space mission is the cost of launching mass, components of a system were converted to an equivalent mass, including power, heat rejection, and volume. Three-year roundtrip crewed missions were evaluated for the International Space Station, the Moon, and Mars. The average Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of MES-AA is 1.38x and 2.84x lower than prepackaged food and microalgae SCP, respectively. The expected electricity-to-calorie conversion efficiency of MES-AA is 19.8 %, consuming 3.45 kW to fully feed five astronauts; diets would realistically include multiple foods. MES-AA has a higher energy efficiency than any currently investigated resilient food in space. MES-AA can provide diet diversity at a lower cost than customarily storing prepackaged food or growing crops in space. Producing food while contributing to closed loop life support in space can contribute to reducing global catastrophic risk and is relevant in off-grid communities, like in rural Alaska.

Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks.

Global catastrophes such as a supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact, or nuclear winter could cause global agricultural collapse due to reduced sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. The human civilization's food production system is unprepared to respond to such events, but methane single cell protein (SCP) could be a key part of the solution. Current preparedness centers around food stockpiling, an excessively expensive solution given that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS) could hamper conventional agriculture for 5-10 years. Instead, it is more cost-effective to consider resilient food production techniques requiring little to no sunlight. This study analyses the potential of SCP produced from methane (natural gas and biogas) as a resilient food source for global catastrophic food shocks from ASRS. The following are quantified: global production potential of methane SCP, capital costs, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates, and retail prices. In addition, potential bottlenecks for fast deployment are considered. While providing a more valuable, protein-rich product than its alternatives, the production capacity could be slower to ramp up. Based on 24/7 construction of facilities, 7%-11% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year. Despite significant remaining uncertainties, methane SCP shows significant potential to prevent global protein starvation during an ASRS at an affordable price-US$3-5/kg dry.

Nutrition in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios: Envisioning Feasible Balanced Diets on Resilient Foods.

Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) following catastrophic events, such as a nuclear war, a large volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike, could prompt global agricultural collapse. There are low-cost foods that could be made available in an ASRS: resilient foods. Nutritionally adequate combinations of these resilient foods are investigated for different stages of a scenario with an effective response, based on existing technology. While macro- and micronutrient requirements were overall met, some-potentially chronic-deficiencies were identified (e.g., vitamins D, E and K). Resilient sources of micronutrients for mitigating these and other potential deficiencies are presented. The results of this analysis suggest that no life-threatening micronutrient deficiencies or excesses would necessarily be present given preparation to deploy resilient foods and an effective response. Careful preparedness and planning-such as stock management and resilient food production ramp-up-is indispensable for an effective response that not only allows for fulfilling people's energy requirements, but also prevents severe malnutrition.

Ending nuclear weapons before they end us: current challenges and paths to avoiding a public health catastrophe.

The United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)-an important planetary health good-entered into legal force in January 2021. Evidence of the consequences of nuclear war, particularly the global climatic and nutritional effects of the abrupt ice age conditions from even a relatively small regional nuclear war, indicates that these are more severe than previously thought. None of the nine nuclear-armed states is disarming; instead, all invest enormously in new and more hazardous nuclear weapons. Nor has any of the 32 states claiming reliance on another state's nuclear weapons yet ended such reliance. These factors, abrogation of existing nuclear arms control agreements, policies of first nuclear use and war fighting, growing armed conflicts worldwide, and increasing use of information and cyberwarfare, exacerbate dangers of nuclear war. Evidence-based advocacy by health professionals on the planetary health imperative to eliminate nuclear weapons has never been more urgent.

Optimising peace through a Universal Global Peace Treaty to constrain the risk of war from a militarised artificial superintelligence.

This article argues that an artificial superintelligence (ASI) emerging in a world where war is still normalised constitutes a catastrophic existential risk, either because the ASI might be employed by a nation-state to war for global domination, i.e., ASI-enabled warfare, or because the ASI wars on behalf of itself to establish global domination, i.e., ASI-directed warfare. Presently, few states declare war or even war on each other, in part due to the 1945 UN Charter, which states Member States should "refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force", while allowing for UN Security Council-endorsed military measures and self-defense. As UN Member States no longer declare war on each other, instead, only 'international armed conflicts' occur. However, costly interstate conflicts, both hot and cold and tantamount to wars, still take place. Further, a New Cold War between AI superpowers looms. An ASI-directed/enabled future conflict could trigger total war, including nuclear conflict, and is therefore high risk. Via conforming instrumentalism, an international relations theory, we advocate risk reduction by optimising peace through a Universal Global Peace Treaty (UGPT), contributing towards the ending of existing wars and prevention of future wars, as well as a Cyberweapons and Artificial Intelligence Convention. This strategy could influence state actors, including those developing ASIs, or an agential ASI, particularly if it values conforming instrumentalism and peace. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00146-021-01382-y.

Open source software toolchain for automated non-targeted screening for toxins in alternative foods.

Previous published methods for non-targeted screening of toxins in alternative foods such as leaf concentrate, agricultural residues or plastic fed to biological consortia are time consuming and expensive and thus present accessibility, as well as, time-constraint issues for scientists from under resourced settings to identify safe alternative foods. The novel methodology presented here, utilizes a completely free and open source software toolchain for automatically screening unknown alternative foods for toxicity using experimental data from ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. The process uses three distinct tools (mass spectrometry analysis with MZmine 2, formula assignment with MFAssignR, and data filtering with ToxAssign) enabling it to be modular and easily upgradable in the future. MZmine 2 and MFAssignR have been previously described, while ToxAssign was developed here to match the formulas output by formula assignment to potentially toxic compounds in a local table, then look up toxic data on the Open Food Tox Database for the matched compounds. This process is designed to fill the gap between food safety analysis techniques and developing alternative food production techniques to allow for new methods of food production to be preliminarily tested before animal testing. The methodology was validated against a previous method using proprietary commercial software. The new process identifies all of the toxic elements the previous process identified with more detailed information than the previous process was able to provide automatically.•Efficient analysis to find potentially toxic compounds in alternative foods and resilient foods.•Identification of potentially unsafe products without the use of live animal testing.•Modular free and open source design to allow for upgrading or fitting of user needs.

Extrinsic and Existential Mortality Risk in Reproductive Decision-Making: Examining the Effects of COVID-19 Experience and Climate Change Beliefs.

While the COVID-19 pandemic has presented an immediate risk to human life around the world, climate change poses an arguably greater-although less immediate-threat to our species' survival. Within the framework of life-history theory (LHT), this pre-registered study investigated whether extrinsic risk (i.e., external factors that pose a risk to an individual's life, e.g., COVID-19) and existential risk (i.e., risks with outcomes that threaten the existence of humans as a species, e.g., climate change) had similar or different relationships with reproductive decision-making. A UK representative sample of 325 participants between 18 and 35 years of age was asked to indicate their ideal number of children, ideal age to start having children, and whether their desire for a child had recently changed. Participants were asked about their experiences of COVID-19 and given a series of scales with which to assess their beliefs about climate change. In support of LHT, the study found evidence that knowing people who had been hospitalized with or died of COVID-19 was associated with a greater ideal number of children. Conversely, there was no clear evidence of a relationship between climate change beliefs and reproductive decision-making. The repercussions for understanding how we interpret and respond to different forms of mortality risk are discussed.

Optimizing Island Refuges against global Catastrophic and Existential Biological Threats: Priorities and Preparations.

Human civilization is vulnerable to global catastrophic biological threats and existential threats. Policy to mitigate the impact of major biological threats should consider worst-case scenarios. We aimed to strengthen existing research on island refuges as a mitigating mechanism against such threats by considering five additional factors as well as recent literature on catastrophic risks and resilience. We also analyzed the performance of potential refuge islands during early phases the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a composite indicator (scored from 0-1) based on 14 global macroindices, we present analysis supporting Australia (0.71), New Zealand (0.64), and Iceland (0.58) as the leading candidate island nation refuges to safeguard the survival of humanity and a flourishing technological civilization from the threat of a catastrophic pandemic. Data from the COVID-19 pandemic supports this finding where islands have performed relatively well. We discuss the persisting weaknesses of even the best candidate refuges and the growing literature describing what preparations such a refuge should ensure to enhance resilience. Refuge preparations by Australia and New Zealand, in particular, may additionally provide some immunity against winter-inducing catastrophes such as global nuclear war. Existing disaster resilience frameworks such as the Sendai framework could be worded to mandate preventive measures against global catastrophic and existential threats. The issue of island refuges against certain global catastrophic risks should be raised at relevant international political summits.

Potential of microbial protein from hydrogen for preventing mass starvation in catastrophic scenarios.

Human civilization's food production system is currently unprepared for catastrophes that would reduce global food production by 10% or more, such as nuclear winter, supervolcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts. Alternative foods that do not require much or any sunlight have been proposed as a more cost-effective solution than increasing food stockpiles, given the long duration of many global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that could hamper conventional agriculture for 5 to 10 years. Microbial food from single cell protein (SCP) produced via hydrogen from both gasification and electrolysis is analyzed in this study as alternative food for the most severe food shock scenario: a sun-blocking catastrophe. Capital costs, resource requirements and ramp up rates are quantified to determine its viability. Potential bottlenecks to fast deployment of the technology are reviewed. The ramp up speed of food production for 24/7 construction of the facilities over 6 years is estimated to be lower than other alternatives (3-10% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at end of first year), but the nutritional quality of the microbial protein is higher than for most other alternative foods for catastrophes. Results suggest that investment in SCP ramp up should be limited to the production capacity that is needed to fulfill only the minimum recommended protein requirements of humanity during the catastrophe. Further research is needed into more uncertain concerns such as transferability of labor and equipment production. This could help reduce the negative impact of potential food-related GCRs.

Probability and consequences of living inside a computer simulation.

It is shown that under reasonable assumptions a Drake-style equation can be obtained for the probability that our universe is the result of a deliberate simulation. Evaluating loose bounds for certain terms in the equation shows that the probability is unlikely to be as high as previously reported in the literature, especially in a scenario where the simulations are recursive. Furthermore, we investigate the possibility of eavesdropping from the outside of such a simulation and introduce a general attack that can circumvent attempts at using quantum cryptography inside the simulation, even if the quantum properties of the simulation are genuine.

Lessons from the past, policies for the future: resilience and sustainability in past crises.

This article surveys some examples of the ways past societies have responded to environmental stressors such as famine, war, and pandemic. We show that people in the past did think about system recovery, but only on a sectoral scale. They did perceive challenges and respond appropriately, but within cultural constraints and resource limitations. Risk mitigation was generally limited in scope, localized, and again determined by cultural logic that may not necessarily have been aware of more than symptoms, rather than actual causes. We also show that risk-managing and risk-mitigating arrangements often favored the vested interests of elites rather than the population more widely, an issue policy makers today still face.

Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level.

In this perspective, we consider the possible role of the United Nations (UN) with respect to existential risks to human civilization and the survival of humanity. We illustrate how existential risks have been discussed at an international governance level, specifically in documents in the UN Digital Library. In this large corpus, discussions of nuclear war account for over two-thirds (69%, 67/97) of mentions of existential risks, while mention of other existential risks, or such risks as a category, appears scant. We take these observations to imply inadequate attention to these significant threats. These deficits, combined with the need for a global response to many risks, suggest that UN member nations should urgently advocate for appropriate action at the UN to address threats, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, geoengineering, and supervolcanic eruption, in analogous fashion to existing attempts to mitigate the threats from nuclear war or near-Earth objects.

The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics.

In this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long-term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization methodology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders). Results describe each nation in nine resilience-relevant domains covering location, population, resources, and society according to published data. The results indicate that the most suitable island nations for refuge status are Australia, followed closely by New Zealand, and then Iceland, with other nations all well behind (including the relatively high-income ones of Malta and Japan). Nevertheless, some key contextual factors remain relatively unexplored. These include the capacity of the jurisdiction to rapidly close its borders when the emerging threat was first detected elsewhere, and whether or not large subnational islands should be the preferred focus for refuge design (e.g., the Australian state of Tasmania, the island of Hokkaido in Japan, or the South Island of New Zealand). Overall, this work provides conceptual thinking with some initial example analysis. Further research could refine the selection of metrics, how best to weight the relevant domains, and how the populations of prioritized island nations view their nation's selection as a potential refuge for human survival.

Scaling of greenhouse crop production in low sunlight scenarios.

PURPOSE: During a global catastrophe such as a nuclear winter, in which sunlight and temperatures are reduced across every latitude, to maintain global agricultural output it is necessary to grow some crops under structures. This study designs a method for scaling up crop production in low-tech greenhouses to contribute to global food sustainability during global catastrophic conditions. Constructing low-tech greenhouses would obviate growing crops using more expensive and energy intensive artificial light. METHODS: A nuclear winter climate model is used to determine conditions for which greenhouses would need to compensate. The greenhouse structures are designed to utilize global markets of timber, polymer film, construction aggregates, and steel nails. RESULTS: The limiting market that determines the growth rate of the greenhouses is the rate at which polymer film and sheet are currently extruded. Conditions under low-tech greenhouses in the tropics would feasibly accommodate the production of nearly all crops. Some supplemental lighting would be required for long day crops. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis shows that the added cost of low-tech greenhouses is about two orders of magnitude lower than the added cost of artificial light growth. The retail cost of food from these low-tech greenhouses will be ~2.30 USD/kg dry food higher than current costs; for instance, a 160% retail cost increase for rice. According to the proposed scaling method, the greenhouses will provide 36% of food requirements for everyone by the end of the first year, and feed everyone after 30 months.

Preliminary Automated Determination of Edibility of Alternative Foods: Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Red Maple Leaf Concentrate.

Alternative food supplies could maintain humanity despite sun-blocking global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that eliminate conventional agriculture. A promising alternative food is making leaf concentrate. However, the edibility of tree leaves is largely uncertain. To overcome this challenge, this study provides the methods for obtaining rapid toxics screening of common leaf concentrates. The investigation begins with a non-targeted approach using an ultra-high-resolution hybrid ion trap orbitrap mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI) coupled to an ultra-high pressure two-dimensional liquid chromatograph system on the most common North American leaf: the red maple. Identified chemicals from this non-targeted approach are then cross-referenced with the OpenFoodTox database to identify toxic chemicals. Identified toxins are then screened for formula validation and evaluated for risk as a food. The results after screening show that red maple leaf concentrate contains at least eight toxic chemicals, which upon analysis do not present substantial risks unless consumed in abundance. This indicates that red maple leaf is still a potential alternative food. The results are discussed in the context of expanding the analysis with open science and using leaf extract from other plants that are not traditionally used as foods to offset current global hunger challenges, and move to a more sustainable food system while also preparing for GCRs.

The Unabomber's ethics.

In this paper, I present and criticize Ted Kaczynski's ("The Unabomber") theory that industrialization has been terrible for humanity, and that we should use any means necessary, including violent means, to induce a return to pre-industrial ways of living. Although Kaczynski's manifesto, Industrial society and its future, has become widely known, his ideas have never before been subject to careful philosophical criticism. In this paper I show how Kaczynski's arguments rely on a number of highly implausible philosophical premises. I further make the case that, although his theory as a whole should be rejected, Kaczynski raises a number of worries about technological development that ought to receive serious attention. Some of these worries have recently come to be shared by prominent defenders of human enhancement, including Nick Bostrom and Julian Savulescu. In the last section I indicate why I believe it is important that academic philosophers scrutinize ideas that motivate acts of violence.

Questioning Estimates of Natural Pandemic Risk.

The central argument in this article is that the probability of very large natural pandemics is more uncertain than either previous analyses or the historical record suggest. In public health and health security analyses, global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) have the potential to cause "sudden, extraordinary, widespread disaster," with "tens to hundreds of millions of fatalities." Recent analyses focusing on extreme events presume that the most extreme natural events are less likely than artificial sources of GCBRs and should receive proportionately less attention. These earlier analyses relied on an informal Bayesian analysis of naturally occurring GCBRs in the historical record and conclude that the near absence of such events demonstrates that they are rare. This ignores key uncertainties about both selection biases inherent in historical data and underlying causes of the nonstationary risk. The uncertainty is addressed here by first reconsidering the assumptions in earlier Bayesian analyses, then outlining a more complete analysis accounting for several previously omitted factors. Finally, relationships are suggested between available evidence and the uncertain question at hand, allowing more rigorous future estimates.

Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989⁻2013).

Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989⁻2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.

Rebooting Bioresilience: A Multi-OMICS Approach to Tackle Global Catastrophic Biological Risks and Next-Generation Biothreats.

Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs) refer to biological events-natural, deliberate, and accidental-of a global and lasting impact. This challenges the life scientists to raise their game on two hitherto neglected innovation frontiers: a veritable "futures" thinking to "think the unthinkable," and "systems thinking" so as to see both the trees and the forest when it comes to GCBRs. This innovation analysis article outlines the promise of Omics systems science biotechnologies, for example, to deploy rapid fire diagnostics for health security crises at GCBR level, possibly involving neopathogens and/or incurring epidemics (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS] and Ebola) that collectively threaten the lives of global society and interdependent biological ecosystems. Moreover, Omics encourages thinking beyond immediacy and in long-term strategies for biopreparedness and response innovation when the timelines are aggressive and compressed in response to crises such as GCBRs, but also to non-global but surging, multiple threats occurring as successive, overlapping, or distinct events, rather than as distinct entities-a prospect enforcing a reboot in Bioresilience. We define Next-Generation Bioresilience as "a systems approach against natural, accidental and perpetrated GCBRs using Omics technologies, and a shift in mentality, whereby the systems approach is expanded to include multiple plausible futures and expose unchecked assumptions attendant to risks, beyond technological determinism." In sum, it is time to think about the realistic potential of Omics biotechnologies beyond clinical practice and precision medicine so as to harness the opportunities and address the uncertainties associated not only with GCBRs but also with other emerging Omics applications in health and society.