Data driven methodology for model selection in flow pattern prediction.

The determination of multiphase flow parameters such as flow pattern, pressure drop and liquid holdup, is a very challenging and valuable problem in chemical, oil and gas industries, especially during transportation. There are two main approaches to solve this problem in literature: data based algorithms and mechanistic models. Although data based methods may achieve better prediction accuracy, they fail to explain the two-phase characteristics (i.e. pressure gradient, holdup, gas and liquid local velocities, etc.). Recently, many approaches have been made for establishing a unified mechanistic model for steady-state two-phase flow to predict accurately the mentioned properties. This paper proposes a novel data-driven methodology for selecting closure relationships from the models included in the unified model. A decision tree based model is built based on a data driven methodology developed from a 27670 points data set and later tested for flow pattern prediction in a set made of 9224 observations. The closure relationship selection model achieved high accuracy in classifying flow regimes for a wide range of two-phase flow conditions. Intermittent flow registering the highest accuracy (86.32%) and annular flow the lowest (49.11%). The results show that less than 10% of global accuracy is lost compared to direct data based algorithms, which is explained by the worse performance presented for atypical values and zones close to boundaries between flow patterns.

How well can we simulate complex hydro-geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi-lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú).

Changing high-mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) general two-phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back-calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi-lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision-making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ancient remains and the first peopling of the Americas: Reassessing the Hoyo Negro skull.

OBJECTIVE: A noticeably well-preserved ∼12.500 years-old skeleton from the Hoyo Negro cave, Yucatán, México, was recently reported, along with its archaeological, genetic and skeletal characteristics. Based exclusively on an anatomical description of the skull (HN5/48), Chatters and colleagues stated that this specimen can be assigned to a set of ancient remains that differ from modern Native Americans, the so called "Paleoamericans". Here, we aim to further explore the morphological affinities of this specimen with a set of comparative cranial samples covering ancient and modern periods from Asia and the Americas. METHODS: Images published in the original article were analyzed using geometric morphometrics methods. Shape variables were used to perform Principal Component and Discriminant analysis against the reference samples. RESULTS: Even thought the Principal Component Analysis suggests that the Hoyo Negro skull falls in a subregion of the morphospace occupied by both "Paleoamericans" and some modern Native Americans, the Discriminant analyses suggest greater affinity with a modern Native American sample. DISCUSSION: These results reinforce the idea that the original population that first occupied the New World carried high levels of within-group variation, which we have suggested previously on a synthetic model for the settlement of the Americas. Our results also highlight the importance of developing formal classificatory test before deriving settlement hypothesis purely based on macroscopic descriptions.

Krypton-81 in groundwater of the Culebra Dolomite near the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, New Mexico.

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico is the first geologic repository for disposal of transuranic nuclear waste from defense-related programs of the US Department of Energy. It is constructed within halite beds of the Permian-age Salado Formation. The Culebra Dolomite, confined within Rustler Formation evaporites overlying the Salado Formation, is a potential pathway for radionuclide transport from the repository to the accessible environment in the human-disturbed repository scenario. Although extensive subsurface characterization and numerical flow modeling of groundwater has been done in the vicinity of the WIPP, few studies have used natural isotopic tracers to validate the flow models and to better understand solute transport at this site. The advent of Atom-Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA) has enabled routine measurement of cosmogenic (81)Kr (half-life 229,000 yr), a near-ideal tracer for long-term groundwater transport. We measured (81)Kr in saline groundwater sampled from two Culebra Dolomite monitoring wells near the WIPP site, and compared (81)Kr model ages with reverse particle-tracking results of well-calibrated flow models. The (81)Kr model ages are ~130,000 and ~330,000 yr for high-transmissivity and low-transmissivity portions of the formation, respectively. Compared with flow model results which indicate a relatively young mean hydraulic age (~32,000 yr), the (81)Kr model ages imply substantial physical attenuation of conservative solutes in the Culebra Dolomite and provide limits on the effective diffusivity of contaminants into the confining aquitards.