Exploring the validity of routine individuated service data for antenatal HIV surveillance in the Western Cape.

Background: In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources through the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC). This enables the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal HIV seroprevalence. We evaluated the validity of these data compared to aggregated program data and population-wide sentinel antenatal HIV seroprevalence surveys for the Western Cape province. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies identified in the PHDC from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. HIV prevalence estimates were triangulated and compared with available survey estimates and aggregated programmatic data from registers as recorded in the District Health Information System. Provincial, district-level and age-group HIV prevalence estimates were compared between data systems using correlation coefficients, absolute differences and trend analysis. Results: Of the 977800 pregnancies ascertained, PHDC HIV prevalence estimates from 2011-2013 were widely disparate from aggregate and survey data (due to incomplete electronic data), whereas from 2014 onwards, estimates were within the 95% confidence interval of survey estimates, and closely correlated to aggregate data estimates (r = 0.8; p = 0.01), with an average prevalence difference of 0.4%. PHDC data show a slow but steady increase in provincial HIV prevalence from 16.7% in 2015 to 18.6% in 2020. The highest HIV prevalence was in the Cape Metro district (20.3%) Prevalence estimates by age group were comparable between sentinel surveys and PHDC from 2015 onwards, with prevalence estimates stable over time among younger age-groups (15-24 years) but increased among older age-groups (> 34 years). Conclusions: This study compares sentinel seroprevalence surveys with both register-based aggregate data and consolidated individuated administrative data. We show that in this setting linked individuated data may be reliably used for HIV surveillance and provide more granular estimates with greater efficiency than seroprevalence surveys and register-based aggregate data.

Provision of HIV testing services and its impact on the HIV positivity rate in the public health sector in KwaZulu-Natal: a ten-year review.

South Africa has been rated as having the most severe HIV epidemic in the world since it has one of the largest populations of people living with HIV (PLHIV). KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is the epicentre of the HIV epidemic. The HIV test and treat services in the public health sector are critical to managing the epidemic and responding to the increase in HIV infections. The KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health (DOH) commissioned a review of the provision of HIV testing services in the province and aimed to investigate its impact on the HIV positivity rate over a ten-year period. The study was an ecological study design using data extracted from the Department's District Health Information System (DHIS). Descriptive analysis was conducted in addition to ANOVA and multiple regression analysis. The results of this study have shown that the total number of HIV tests conducted over the ten-year period in the province has increased with the highest number of HIV tests being conducted in the 2018/2019 MTEF year. ANOVA analysis indicates that there was a statistically significant difference in the total number of HIV tests conducted and the number of HIV tests per 100 000 population across the province's 11 districts (p < 0.001). Statistically significant differences were observed in the HIV testing rate and in the HIV positivity rate over the period (p < 0.001). Results from multiple regression analysis showed that the HIV testing rate per 100 000 population was the strongest predictor of the HIV positivity rate. HIV positivity among clients correlated negatively with the number of HIV tests conducted per 100 000 population (r = -0.823; p < 0.001) and the HIV testing rate (r = -0.324; p < 0.01). This study has found that HIV testing could have an impact on reducing the positivity rate of HIV in the province and is therefore an effective strategy in curbing the HIV epidemic. The KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health should ensure that strategies for implementing and maintaining HIV testing and treating services should continue at an accelerated rate in order to achieve the first 95 of the UNAIDS 2025 SDG target.

The HIV epidemic in Haiti: is disability a factor?

People with disabilities (PWD) are thought to be low risk for HIV because of social norms regarding disability and sex. However, qualitative studies indicate they are at risk and are not being reached by HIV programs. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) conducted in Haiti in 2016 included HIV biomarker data and disability status. Crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated using a disability severity indicator as the independent variable and HIV infection as the dependent variable. Covariates were selected based on theory and previous studies. Individuals reporting milder disabilities had a higher odds of HIV infection in the crude model (OR:1.65; CI: 1.16-2.34) and those adjusted for demographics (OR:1.73; CI:1.19-2.51) and sexual activity (OR:1.60; CI:1.06-2.42). Those with moderate and more severe disabilities have the same odds of HIV infection as the general population. PWD are HIV-positive and at risk of HIV infection. Based on this, it is essential that HIV education, testing, and treatment programs are inclusive of PWD. Accessible HIV education materials need to be created. HIV testing programs should involve PWD in planning and implementation. Providers of HIV care must be trained regarding the needs of PWD for reproductive healthcare.

Magnitude and Determinants of Virological Failure Among Patients >15 Years on Anti-Retroviral Therapy in Rural Lesotho Between 2015 and 2019 - A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: Lesotho has the second-highest HIV prevalence globally at an estimated 23%, with approximately 87% of the population between 15 and 59 years of age reported to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. There is an urgent need to increase access to effective ART due to increasing rates of first- and second-line treatment failure. Sustaining successful treatment and limiting the development of virological failure is essential, hence the need for early detection of increased viral load indicating drug resistance or rapid progression of viral replication. Aim: The aim of the study was to determine the proportion of patients with HIV with virological failure and to identify factors associated with virological failure in two districts of Lesotho. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in two districts (Butha-Buthe and Mokhotlong) in Lesotho. Data for all patients (age ≥15 years) in the viral load (VL) monitoring database with at least two consecutive viral load results between December 2015 and December 2019 from 22 health facilities were extracted. Descriptive data were presented using tables and figures. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. A p-value < 0.05 was considered a statistically significant association. Results: Only 4% (n = 913) of the study participants had virological failure. Longer time on treatment >65 months (AOR: 1.85 CI: 1.59-2.15) and being on second-line ART regimen (AOR: 75.23 95% CI: 75.00-99.15) were significantly (p < 0.001) associated with virological failure. Conclusion: Virological failure among the study participants is lower compared to other settings. The study identified duration on treatment, treatment regimen as high risk for virological failure. Targeted interventions should be developed for these high-risk group individuals, with continuous monitoring of virological response and appropriate drug switching to clients to achieve improved outcomes.

How does HIV-related stigma correlate with HIV prevalence in African countries? Distinct perspectives from individuals living with and living without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Population-level research evaluating HIV-related stigma among countries with varied national HIV prevalence is scarce. To better understand HIV-related stigma and mitigate its potential negative effects, it is necessary to evaluate its relationship with HIV prevalence, as well as the mechanisms that influence it. This study aimed to analyze how HIV-related stigma correlates with subnational HIV prevalence in three African countries with varied HIV epidemics. METHODS: This paper used data from the nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys conducted from 2015-2017 in Malawi, Zambia, and Tanzania. Each country's sub-national geographic divisions were used to categorize them as low (0-5.4%), middle (5.5-11.2%), and high (11.3-17.1%) HIV prevalence regions in the main analysis. Questions from the survey stigma module were used to measure HIV-related stigma. Logistic regression and multilevel models were performed to assess the associations between the level of sub-national HIV prevalence and HIV-related stigma measures among persons living with, and without, HIV. RESULTS: The results show that the odds of people living without HIV expressing stigmatizing behavior towards PLWH was significantly lower in regions of middle (OR = 0.80, 90%CI = (0.68-0.96)) and high (OR = 0.65, 90%CI = (0.53-0.80)) HIV prevalence when compared to low prevalence regions. The odds of reporting discriminatory attitudes were also lower for those in middle (OR = 0.87, 90%CI = (0.78-0.98)) and high (OR = 0.64, 90%CI = (0.56-0.73)) HIV prevalence regions compared to others. Living in middle and high HIV prevalence regions was associated with lower odds of expressing prejudice toward PLWH (OR = 0.84, 90%CI = (0.71-0.99) and OR = 0.60, 90%CI = (0.45-0.80), respectively) among people living without HIV. Notably, PLWH living in high prevalence regions had higher odds of reporting internalized stigma (OR = 1.48, 90%CI = (1.02-2.14)) compared to those living in low prevalence regions. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that among people not living with HIV, subnational HIV prevalence was negatively associated with discriminatory attitudes and prejudice towards PLWH, but HIV prevalence was positively associated with self-reported internalized stigma among PLWH. These results provide insight on how resources could be invested to reduce HIV related stigma among both PLWH and those not living with HIV.

Estimation of HIV prevalence and burden in Nigeria: a Bayesian predictive modelling study.

Background: The cost of population-based surveys is high and obtaining funding for a national population-based survey may take several years, with follow-up surveys taking up to five years. Survey-based prevalence estimates are prone to bias owing to survey non-participation, as not all individuals eligible to participate in a survey may be reached, and some of those who are contacted do not consent to HIV testing. This study describes how Bayesian statistical modeling may be used to estimate HIV prevalence at the state level in a reliable and timely manner. Methods: We analysed national HIV testing services (HTS) data for Nigeria from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, to derive state-level HIV seropositivity rates. We used a Bayesian linear model with normal prior distribution and Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate HIV state-level prevalence for the 36 states +1 FCT in Nigeria. Our outcome variable was the HIV seropositivity rates and we adjusted for demographic, economic, biological, and societal covariates collected from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and 2016-17 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The estimated population of 15-49 years olds in each state was multiplied by estimates from the estimated prevalence to generate state-level HIV burden. Findings: Our estimated national HIV prevalence was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-2.7%) among adults aged 15-49 years in Nigeria, which corresponds to approximately 2 million people living with HIV, compared to previous national HIV prevalence estimates of 1.4% from the 2018 NAIIS and UNAIDS estimation and projection package PLHIV estimation of 1.8 million in 2022. Our modelled HIV prevalence in Nigeria varies by state, with Benue (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.0-6.3) having the highest prevalence, followed by Rivers (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.6-5.8%), Akwa Ibom (3.5%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.1%), Edo (3.4%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.0%) and Taraba (3.0%, 95% CI: 2.6-3.7%) placing fourth and fifth, respectively. Jigawa had the lowest HIV prevalence (0.3%), which was consistent with prior estimates. Interpretation: This model provides a comprehensive and flexible use of evidence to estimate state-level HIV seroprevalence for Nigeria using program data and adjusting for explanatory variables. Thus, investment in program data for HIV surveillance will provide reliable estimates for HIV sub-national monitoring and improve planning and interventions for epidemiologic control. Funding: This article was made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

Developing HIV risk prediction tools in four African settings.

OBJECTIVE: HIV risk prediction tools are a critical component of efforts to end the HIV pandemic. We aimed to create and validate tools for identifying individuals at highest risk of prevalent and incident HIV in an African setting. METHODS: We used Logistic regression and Poisson regression to determine risk factors for HIV prevalence and incidence in a multi-country HIV vaccine trial preparedness cohort study among individuals at high risk of HIV, and used the identified factors to create and validate tools that predict HIV risk. We also assessed the performance of the VOICE risk score in predicting HIV incidence among women in the cohort. RESULTS: The prevalent HIV prediction tool created had good predictive ability [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.70, 95% CI 0.66-0.74]. It included the following participant variables: age, sex, recreational drug use, unprotected male-to-male anal sex, a sexual partner who had other partners, transactional sex and having a partner who was a long-distance truck driver/miner. It was not possible to create a valid HIV incidence prediction tool. Participants with high VOICE risk scores (≥7) had slightly higher HIV incidence but this tool performed poorly within our study (AUC = 0.58, 95% CI 0.51-0.64: Harrell's concordance index = 0.59). CONCLUSION: We created a prevalent HIV prediction tool that could be used to increase efficiency in diagnosis of HIV and linkage to care in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing incident HIV prediction tools may need modification to include context-specific predictors such as calendar period, participant occupation, study site, before adoption in settings different from those in which they were developed.

Varied trends of tuberculosis and HIV dual epidemics among different countries during 2000-2020: lessons from an ecological time-trend study of 9 countries.

BACKGROUND: While Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection is a well-established risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), the effect of HIV infection on TB incidence varies across countries given differences in local epidemiological factors and disparate progress with respect to TB elimination goals. METHODS: In this descriptive epidemiological study, we explored the country-specific associations between HIV prevalence and TB incidence in nine countries representing four WHO regions using data between 2000 and 2020. For each of these countries, we (1) described the trends of TB incidence and HIV prevalence, and (2) examined country-level associations between TB incidence and HIV prevalence, using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: The trends of TB incidence and HIV prevalence, and the country-level associations, varied across the study countries. Angola, Thailand and Zimbabwe showed parallel TB incidence and HIV prevalence trends while the two trends diverged in Brazil, Liberia and Indonesia during the study period. Additionally, the strength of association between HIV prevalence and TB incidence varied widely between countries, with the risk ratio ranging from 0.42 (95% CI: 0.36, 0.49) in Indonesia to 2.78 (95% CI: 2.57, 3.02) in Thailand. CONCLUSIONS: The association of HIV infection with TB incidence varied across high burden settings, suggesting that HIV is not a ubiquitous driver of TB incidence. Without acknowledging the local drivers of TB epidemics across countries, the END TB Strategy cannot be adapted at the country level. The findings from this analysis can inform the design of future studies to identify country-specific drivers of TB using individual-level data.

Bayesian Spatial Modelling of HIV Prevalence in Jimma Zone, Ethiopia.

Background: Although the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is spatially heterogeneous in Ethiopia, current regional estimates of HIV prevalence hide the epidemic's heterogeneity. A thorough examination of the prevalence of HIV infection using district-level data could assist to develop HIV prevention strategies. The aims of this study were to examine the spatial clustering of HIV prevalence in Jimma Zone at district level and assess the effects of patient characteristics on the prevalence of HIV infection. Methods: The 8440 files of patients who underwent HIV testing in the 22 Districts of Jimma Zone between September 2018 and August 2019 were the source of data for this study. The global Moran's index, Getis-Ord Gi* local statistic, and Bayesian hierarchical spatial modelling approach were applied to address the research objectives. Results: Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in the districts and the local indicators of spatial analysis using the Getis-Ord statistic also identified three districts, namely Agaro, Gomma and Nono Benja, as hotspots, and two districts, namely Mancho and Omo Beyam, as coldspots with 95% and 90% confidence levels, respectively, for HIV prevalence. The results also showed eight patient-related characteristics that were considered in the study were associated with HIV prevalence in the study area. Furthermore, after accounting for these characteristics in the fitted model, there was no spatial clustering of HIV prevalence suggesting the patient characteristics had explained most of the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence in Jimma Zone for the study data. Conclusions: The identification of hotspot districts and the spatial dynamic of HIV infection in Jimma Zone at district level may allow health policymakers in the zone or Oromiya region or at national level to develop geographically specific strategies to prevent HIV transmission. Because clinic register data were used in the study, it is important to use caution when interpreting the results. The results are restricted to Jimma Zone districts and may not be generalizable to Ethiopia or the Oromiya region.

The declining trend in HIV prevalence from population-based surveys in Cameroon between 2004 and 2018: myth or reality in the universal test and treat era?

BACKGROUND: HIV remains an epidemic of major public health importance in Cameroon but a decline in HIV prevalence has been observed according to population-based surveys conducted in 2004, 2011 and 2018. We sought to review current evidence for declining HIV prevalence despite increasing survival owing to 'universal test and treat' and to explore the reason for the decrease, particularly the role of behavioural change. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis using HIV prevalence, behavioural and social determinants data of the Demographic and Health Survey Program databases. Trend lines were fitted to data that were available for a minimum of three points in time during the 1991-2018 period. Regression coefficients associated p-values and 95% confidence intervals were obtained using Microsoft Excel software. RESULTS: Overall adult HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 5.4% (95%CI: 4.8-6.0) in 2004 to 4.3% (95%CI: 3.8-4.8) in 2011 and further down to 2.7% (95%CI: 2.3-3.1) in 2018 at a rate of about 1.4% every septennium (ß = -1.4, R² = 0.98, p = 0.03). Yet, the number of persons surviving with HIV increased from about 0.05 million in 1991 to 0.5 million in 2018 corresponding to an increase in access to antiretroviral therapy from less than 10% to universal coverage of 80% respectively. Concurrent reductions in risky sexual behaviours were observed: a delayed sexual debut by one year, decreased sexual violence by 7%, decreased polygamous unions by 16%, decreased multiple sexual partners by 15.3% and increased condom use by 26.3%. CONCLUSION: The observed decline in HIV prevalence is statistically valid and reflects the observed decline in risky sexual behaviour that need to be sustained by the National HIV programme. Though universal access to ART has increased the number of persons surviving with HIV, this has not led to an increased prevalence of HIV in a setting with a rising population.

HIV prevalence and associated risk factors among young tertiary student men who have sex with men (MSM) in Nairobi, Kenya: a respondent-driven sampling survey.

BACKGROUND: Young men who have sex with men (MSM), are a key population at higher risk of HIV infection yet they are underrepresented in research. We conducted a bio-behavioral survey to estimate HIV prevalence and associated risk factors among tertiary student MSM (TSMSM) in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: Between February and March 2021, 248 TSMSM aged ≥ 18 years who reported sex with another man in the past year participated in a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) based cross-sectional survey. Participants completed an electronically self-administered behavioral survey and provided a blood sample for HIV antibody testing, alongside urine, anorectal and oropharyngeal swabs for pooled testing of sexually transmitted infections using a multiplex nucleic acid amplification test. RDS-Analyst v.0.72 and Stata v.15 software were used for data analysis. Differences in proportions were examined using chi-square (χ2) test, and unweighted multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with HIV infection. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among study participants was 8.3%, whereas the weighted prevalence was 3.6% (95% CI: 1.3-6.0%). Median ages of participants, and at self-reported first anal sex with a man were 21(interquartile range [IQR] 20-22) and 18 (IQR 17-19) years, respectively. A majority (89.3%) of TSMSM owned a smart phone, 46.5% had ever used a geosocial networking app for MSM such as Grindr ® to find a sex partner, and a third (33.6%) met their last sex partner online.  Almost three-quarters (71.3%) had > 1 male sex partner in the year before the survey. A third (34.3%) did not use condoms with their last sex partner, 21.2% received money from their last sex partner and 40.9% had taken alcohol/another drug during their last sexual encounter. HIV infection was associated with studying in private institutions (adjusted odds ratio[AOR] = 6.0; 95% confidence intervals [CI] : 1.2-30.0, p = 0.027), preferring a sex partner of any age-younger, same or older (AOR = 5.2; 95 CI: 1.1-25.2, p = 0.041), last sex partner being > 25 years (AOR = 6.4; 95% CI: 1.2-34.6, p = 0.030), meeting the last sex partner online (AOR = 4.2; 95% CI; 1.1-17.0, p = 0.043) and testing positive for Neisseria gonorrhea (AOR = 7.8; 95% CI: 2.0-29.9, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence among TSMSM in Nairobi is alarmingly high, demonstrating a need for tailored prevention and control interventions for this young key population.

HIV prevalence and associated factors among female sex workers in Iran: a bio-behavioral survey in 2020.

Despite the overall decline in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, it remains unacceptably high in key populations. This study aimed to estimate prevalence of HIV infection and high-risk behaviors among female sex workers (FSWs). This study was a cross-sectional survey of FSWs conducted between December 2019 and August 2020 in eight geographically diverse cities in Iran. After providing informed consent, participants completed a bio-behavioral questionnaire and after completion of the interview, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and dried blood spots (DBS) were collected to determine HIV and syphilis status as per national guidelines, if the women consented. All analyzes were based on RDS adjustment. Weighting was done according to Giles'SS estimator. Among the 1515 FSWs, the overall prevalence of HIV and syphilis were 1.6% (95% CI: 0.8-2.3) and zero, respectively. The highest HIV prevalence was observed in Shiraz (5.1%) and Khorramabad city (1.6%). In addition, HIV-positive FSWs had a higher mean age at first sexual contact than HIV-negative FSWs (21.4 ± 5.6 vs. 17.2 ± 4.2 years). Injection drug use and a history of arrest or incarceration were associated with an increased odds of HIV infection (OR = 6.25; 95% CI: 1.90-20.55 and OR = 4.57; 95% CI: 1.64-12.72, respectively). Based on the results, strategies to improve early HIV diagnosis, harm reduction, and use of testing and treatment strategies are needed to reduce and control HIV infections.

Changes in HIV care continuum indicators among community-based samples of HIV-infected people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men across 21 cities in India.

Monitoring key populations' progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets is essential to achieving HIV/AIDS epidemic control. Using serial cross-sectional data, we evaluated changes in HIV care continuum among people who inject drugs(PWID) and men who have sex with men(MSM) in India. Cross-sectional baseline (2012/2013) and follow-up (2016/2017) samples were recruited using respondent-driven sampling across 21 cities. All participants were tested for HIV and RNA measured in HIV-positive participants. Linear regression was used to model temporal site-level changes in continuum indicators in MSM versus PWID. At baseline, we recruited 2,544 HIV-infected PWID and 1,086 HIV-infected MSM. At follow-up, we recruited 2,517 HIV-infected PWID and 1,763 HIV-infected MSM. At baseline, there were no significant differences in continuum indicators between MSM and PWID. At follow-up, compared to PWID, the proportion of MSM reaching each care continuum indicator-awareness of status, receipt of care, ART use, viral suppression-increased by 15-33 percentage points: 78% of MSM versus 49% of PWID were aware of their status (p < 0.01); 56% of MSM versus 32% of PWID were virologically suppressed (p = 0.05). MSM showed marked improvements across the care continuum, whereas PWID lagged and may require additional intervention. Differential improvement in HIV engagement may necessitate population-specific interventions and routine surveillance to facilitate HIV elimination.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity and determinants of HIV prevalence in the Mano River Union countries.

BACKGROUND: Utilizing population-based survey data in epidemiological research with a spatial perspective can integrate valuable context into the dynamics of HIV prevalence in West Africa. However, the situation in the Mano River Union (MRU) countries is largely unknown. This research aims to perform an ecological study to determine the HIV prevalence patterns in MRU. METHODS: We analyzed Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS) data on HIV prevalence in MRU from 2005 to 2020. We examined the country-specific, regional-specific and sex-specific ratios of respondents to profile the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HIV prevalence and determine HIV hot spots. We employed Geodetector to measure the spatial stratified heterogeneity (SSH) of HIV prevalence for adult women and men. We assessed the comprehensive correct knowledge (CCK) about HIV/AIDS and HIV testing uptake by employing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression to predict which combinations of CCKs can scale up the ratio of HIV testing uptake with sex-specific needs. RESULTS: In our analysis, we leveraged data for 158,408 respondents from 11 surveys in the MRU. From 2005-2015, Cote d'Ivoire was the hot spot for HIV prevalence with a Gi_Bin score of 3, Z-Score 8.0-10.1 and P < 0.001. From 2016 to 2020, Guinea and Sierra Leone were hot spots for HIV prevalence with a Gi_Bin score of 2, Z-Score of 3.17 and P < 0.01. The SSH confirmed the significant differences in HIV prevalence at the national level strata, with a higher level for Cote d'Ivoire compared to other countries in both sexes with q-values of 0.61 and 0.40, respectively. Our LASSO model predicted different combinations of CCKs with sex-specific needs to improve HIV testing uptake. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial distribution of HIV prevalence in the MRU is skewed and the CCK about HIV/AIDS and HIV testing uptake are far below the threshold target set by UNAIDS for ending the epidemic in the sub-region. Geodetector detected statistically significant SSH within and between countries in the MRU. Our LASSO model predicted that different emphases should be implemented when popularizing the CCK about HIV/AIDS for adult women and men.

Spatial disparities of HIV prevalence in South Africa. Do sociodemographic, behavioral, and biological factors explain this spatial variability?

Background: In 2021, an estimated 38 million people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) globally, with over two-thirds living in African regions. In South Africa, ~20% of South African adults are living with HIV. Accurate estimation of the risk factors and spatial patterns of HIV risk using individual-level data from a nationally representative sample is invaluable for designing geographically targeted intervention and control programs. Methods: Data were obtained from the 2016 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey (SDHS16). The study involved all men and women aged 15 years and older, who responded to questions and tested for HIV in the SDHS. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted to our data with a nonparametric bivariate smooth term of spatial location parameters (X and Y coordinates). The GAMs were used to assess the spatial disparities and the potential contribution of sociodemographic, biological, and behavioral factors to the spatial patterns of HIV prevalence in South Africa. Results: A significantly highest risk of HIV was observed in east coast, central and north-eastern regions. South African men and women who are widowed and divorced had higher odds of HIV as compared to their counterparts. Additionally, men and women who are unemployed had higher odds of HIV as compared to the employed. Surprisingly, the odds of HIV infection among men residing in rural areas were 1.60 times higher (AOR 1.60, 95% CI 1.12, 2.29) as compared to those in urban areas. But men who were circumcised had lower odds of HIV (AOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.52, 0.98), while those who had STI in the last 12 months prior to the survey had higher odds of HIV (AOR 1.76, 95% CI 1.44, 3.68). Conclusion: Spatial heterogeneity in HIV risk persisted even after covariate adjustment but differed by sex, suggesting that there are plausible unobserved influencing factors contributing to HIV uneven variation. This study's findings could guide geographically targeted public health policy and effective HIV intervention in South Africa.

Differentiating the incidence and burden of HIV by age among women who sell sex: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Young women who sell sex (YWSS) are at heightened risk of HIV acquisition and transmission and are among the least engaged in HIV services. There is insufficient epidemiologic evidence characterizing the burden of HIV among YWSS, particularly as compared to older WSS. These data are needed to design and tailor effective HIV prevention and treatment programmes for this population. METHODS: We conducted two parallel systematic reviews and meta-analyses to define both the immediate and long-term HIV risks for YWSS, including among women engaged in sex work, survival sex and transactional sex. In the first review, we identified and synthesized published studies of HIV incidence comparing estimates for cisgender women ≤24 years of age versus >24. In the second review, we identified and synthesized studies of HIV prevalence, comparing estimates for cisgender women who initiated selling sex <18 versus ≥18 years. In both reviews, we completed a search of four databases for articles in any language and any geographic area published from 1 January 1980 until 12 February 2021. Included articles were assessed for quality and a random effects model was used to calculate pooled effect estimates for each review. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We identified 12 studies for the HIV incidence review and 18 studies for the HIV prevalence review. In a meta-analysis, HIV incidence was elevated in younger (5.3 per 100 person-years [PY]; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.5, 7.1) compared to older women (2.8 per 100 PY; 95% CI: 1.7, 3.9), although CIs overlapped. HIV prevalence among those who initiated selling sex <18 years of age (28.8; 95% CI: 18.9, 38.7) was higher than those who initiated later (20.5; 95% CI: 12.4, 28.6). CONCLUSIONS: These companion reviews offer an important perspective on the relative HIV risk of engaging in selling sex at a younger age. Our findings highlight the unique and intersectional challenges YWSS face, and the importance of ensuring that health services are tailored to meet their specific needs. Research and programming should routinely stratify data into meaningful age bands to differentiate and intervene within this population.

Differences in HIV, STI and Other Risk Factors Among Younger and Older Male Sex Workers Who Have Sex With Men in Nairobi, Kenya.

Introduction: Previous surveys of male sex workers (MSW) in sub-Saharan Africa have not fully documented the HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) rates and vulnerabilities by age category. Methods: The bio-behavioral survey of MSW in Nairobi, Kenya, utilized respondent-driven sampling to recruit MSW. Structured interviews captured MSW's behavioral aspects, and biological tests for HIV and other STIs. Results: Analysis of the two age categories, 18-24 years (younger MSW) and 25 years and above (older MSW), shows that of all participants, a significantly higher proportion of younger MSW (59.6% crude, 69.6% RDS-adjusted) were recruited compared to older MSW (40.4% crude, 30.4% RDS-adjusted, P < 0.001). Young male sex workers were more likely to report multiple sexual partnerships in the last 12 months and had multiple receptive anal intercourses (RAI) acts in the last 30 days than older MSW: 0-2 RAI acts (20.6 vs. 8.6%, P = 0.0300), 3-5 RAI acts (26.3 vs. 11.5, P < 0.001), and >5 RAI acts (26.3 vs. 11.5%, P < 0.01). Furthermore, younger MSW were significantly more likely to have 3-5 insertive anal intercourse (IAI) with a regular male sex partner in the last 30 days than older MSW (24.3 vs. 8.0%, P < 0.01). Younger MSW were also more likely to report other STIs [28.5% (95% CI: 19.1-40.4%)] than older MSW [19.0% (95% CI: 7.7-29.2%)]. However, older MSWs were more likely to be infected with HIV than younger MSW (32.3 vs. 9.9 %, P < 0.01). Conclusions: Owing to the high risk sexual behaviors, HIV and STIs risks among younger and older MSW, intensified and targeted efforts are needed on risk reduction campaigns and expanded access to services.

Injecting drug use & HIV prevalence among female sex workers: Evidence from the National Integrated Biological & Behavioural Surveillance, India.

Background & objectives: Female sex workers (FSWs) who inject drugs (FSW-IDs) have a higher risk of HIV infection and transmission. Understanding the socio-demographic characteristics and other risk behaviours among FSW-IDs will help in strengthening targeted interventions for HIV prevention and management. In the present study, the HIV prevalence, associated socio-demographic characteristics and risk behaviours among FSWs who injected drugs (FSW-IDs) and those who did not ID (FSW-NIDs) was determined in India. Methods: The national cross-sectional, community-based, integrated biological and behavioural surveillance was conducted in 2014-2015 at 73 randomly selected FSW domains across 28 States and Union Territories in India. The sample size was fixed at 400 for each domain, and a probability-based sampling method was followed. The data were analyzed by logistic regression methods. Results: Data from 27,007 FSWs were included in the analysis, of which 802 (3%) were FSW-IDs. HIV prevalence among FSW-IDs was significantly higher than that in FSW-NIDs (4.5 vs. 1.9%). Univariate analysis showed that factors significantly associated with higher HIV prevalence among FSW-IDs were older age, sex work as the only source of income, dissolved marriage, living with a sex worker, urban locality of sex work and consumption of alcohol or oral drugs. In multivariable analysis, factors such as older age of FSW-IDs (35 yr and above), having a dissolved marriage and sex work being the only source of income were observed to be independently and significantly associated with higher HIV prevalence. Interpretation & conclusions: Scaling up the HIV preventive interventions for FSW-IDs, such as facilitating awareness and improved access to needle and syringe exchange programme (NSEP) and opioid substitution therapy (OST), encouraging safe sex and injecting practices, educating on the harmful effects of alcohol and drugs and providing alternative vocation options to secure their financial needs are several strategies that may reduce HIV transmission among FSWs.

Correcting for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates: an application of sample selection models using data from population-based HIV surveys in seven sub-Saharan African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Population-based biomarker surveys are the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence but are susceptible to substantial non-participation (up to 30%). Analytical missing data methods, including inverse-probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation (MI), are biased when data are missing-not-at-random, for example when people living with HIV more frequently decline participation. Heckman-type selection models can, under certain assumptions, recover unbiased prevalence estimates in such scenarios. METHODS: We pooled data from 142,706 participants aged 15-49 years from nationally representative cross-sectional Population-based HIV Impact Assessments in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa, conducted between 2015 and 2018 in Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini. We compared sex-stratified HIV prevalence estimates from unadjusted, IPW, MI and selection models, controlling for household and individual-level predictors of non-participation, and assessed the sensitivity of selection models to the copula function specifying the correlation between study participation and HIV status. RESULTS: In total, 84.1% of participants provided a blood sample to determine HIV serostatus (range: 76% in Malawi to 95% in Uganda). HIV prevalence estimates from selection models diverged from IPW and MI models by up to 5% in Lesotho, without substantial precision loss. In Tanzania, the IPW model yielded lower HIV prevalence estimates among males than the best-fitting copula selection model (3.8% vs. 7.9%). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV prevalence estimates from selection models can differ from those obtained under missing-at-random assumptions. Further benefits include exploration of plausible relationships between participation and outcome. While selection models require additional assumptions and careful specification, they are an important tool for triangulating prevalence estimates in surveys with substantial missing data due to non-participation.