A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations.

Comparing COVID-19 response strategies across nations is a key step in preparing for future pandemics. Conventional comparisons, which rank individual non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects, are limited by: (i) a focus on epidemiological outcomes; (ii) NPIs typically being applied as packages of interventions; and (iii) different political, economic and social conditions among nations. Here, we develop a coupled epidemiological-behavioural-macroeconomic model that can transfer NPI effects from a reference nation to a focal nation. This approach quantifies epidemiological, behavioural and economic outcomes while accounting for both packaged NPIs and differing conditions among nations. As a first proof of concept, we take Germany as our focal nation during Spring 2020, and New Zealand and Switzerland as reference nations with contrasting NPI strategies. Our results suggest that, while New Zealand's more aggressive strategy would have yielded modest epidemiological gains in Germany, it would have resulted in substantially higher economic costs while dramatically reducing social contacts. In contrast, Switzerland's more lenient strategy would have prolonged the first wave in Germany, but would also have increased relative costs. More generally, these findings indicate that our approach can provide novel, multifaceted insights on the efficacy of pandemic response strategies, and therefore merits further exploration and development.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric emergency department use: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022.

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic is debated. Understanding the consequences these measures may have on vulnerable populations including children and adolescents is important. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study involving 12 hospitals of the North Italian Emilia-Romagna Region, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (SC) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase (MM) with milder restrictions. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was used to calculate PED Standardized Incidence Rate Ratios (SIRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest frequency and/or variation. Results: In the 60 months of the study there were 765,215 PED visits. Compared to the pre-pandemic rate, overall PED presentations dropped by 58 and 39% during SC and MM, respectively. "Symptoms, signs and Ill-defined conditions," "Injury and poisoning" and "Diseases of the Respiratory System" accounted for 74% of the reduction. A different pattern was instead seen for "Mental Disorders," which exhibited the smallest decrease during SC, and is the only category which rose already at the end of SC. ITS analysis confirmed the strong decrease during SC (level change, IRR 0.17, 95%CI 0.12-0.27) and a significant increase in MM (slope change, IRR 1.23, 95%CI 1.13-1.33), with the sharpest decline (-94%) and rise (+36%) observed in the "Diseases of the Respiratory System" category. Mental Disorders showed a significant increasing trend of 1% monthly over the whole study period exceeding pre-pandemic levels at the end of MM. Females and adolescents showed higher increasing rates both in SC and MM. Conclusion: NPIs appear to have influenced PED attendance in different ways according to diagnostic categories, mirroring different mechanisms of action. These effects are beneficial in some cases and harmful in others, and establishing a clear balance between pros and cons is a difficult task for public health decision makers. The role of NPIs on PED use appropriateness deserves investigation. The rise in pediatric mental disorders independent of the pandemic makes interventions addressing these issues urgent.

Worldwide SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection: Emerging sub-variants and future vaccination perspectives.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has sparked widespread concern globally, particularly with the Omicron variant and its sub-lineages emerging as the predominant cause of infection for nearly two years. Taiwan's successful containment of COVID-19, underscored by broad vaccine coverage, the utilization of anti-viral therapeutics, and timely response strategies, has resulted in reduced excess mortality. Moreover, there is a crucial need for a phased exit strategy, balancing efforts to curtail disease transmission with the mitigation of socioeconomic impacts from rigorous measures. In this review, we examined the evolution and the epidemiological landscape of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron sub-variants in Taiwan as well as other countries of the world. We also critically evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against various SARS-CoV-2 variants. Additionally, we addressed the advantages of heterologous immunization strategies, fluctuations in neutralizing antibody titers, and complexities in establishing protective correlates among swiftly mutating viral variants.

An outbreak of Mycoplasma pneumoniae in children after the COVID-19 pandemic, Shanghai, China, 2023.

Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the infection of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) decreased significantly. At the beginning of the summer of 2023, there was an increasing trend of MP infection in China and the MP pneumonia (MPP) is surging when it comes to the school season and lasts for several months which has attracted widespread attention. Objective: This study aims to investigate the prevalent characteristics of the MP and the difference between the COVID-19 pandemic and the post in Shanghai, China. Methods: The demographic information and the results of laboratory pathogen detection from July 2021 to May 2024 were collected and analyzed to find out the prevalent characteristics of MP. Two periods, during the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-pandemic, were divided and compared. The P1 genotyping and macrolide resistance-associated gene of 23 s rRNA were detected using the remaining MP-positive samples. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevalence of the MP has significantly decreased. Female children are more susceptible to MP infection than the male. The school-aged group (>6 years) had the highest infection rate. The rate of MP P1 genotype during post panel is higher than that during COVID-19 pandemic, which is dominant from July 2021 to May 2024, while the macrolide-resistant associated mutations (A2063G) keep high percentage during or post pandemic. Conclusion: After the COVID-19 pandemic, an outbreak of MP infection occurred from summer onwards in 2023 with children in Shanghai, China. Immunity debt and high rate of macrolide-resistance may take effects in this MP epidemic. Continuous surveillance of MP is necessary to help to alert the prevalence of MPP.

Erratum: Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1393677.].

An innovative fractional-order evolutionary game theoretical study of personal protection, quarantine, and isolation policies for combating epidemic diseases.

This study uses imposed control techniques and vaccination game theory to study disease dynamics with transitory or diminishing immunity. Our model uses the ABC fractional-order derivative mechanism to show the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as personal protection or awareness, quarantine, and isolation to simulate the essential control strategies against an infectious disease spread in an infinite and uniformly distributed population. A comprehensive evolutionary game theory study quantified the significant influence of people's vaccination choices, with government forces participating in vaccination programs to improve obligatory control measures to reduce epidemic spread. This model uses the intervention options described above as a control strategy to reduce disease prevalence in human societies. Again, our simulated results show that a combined control strategy works exquisitely when the disease spreads even faster. A sluggish dissemination rate slows an epidemic outbreak, but modest control techniques can reestablish a disease-free equilibrium. Preventive vaccination regulates the border between the three phases, while personal protection, quarantine, and isolation methods reduce disease transmission in existing places. Thus, successfully combining these three intervention measures reduces epidemic or pandemic size, as represented by line graphs and 3D surface diagrams. For the first time, we use a fractional-order derivate to display the phase-portrayed trajectory graph to show the model's dynamics if immunity wanes at a specific pace, considering various vaccination cost and effectiveness settings.

Understanding the associations between information sources, sociodemographics, and views on public health measures: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, it was a key priority for governments globally to ensure agreement with, and subsequently adherence to, imposed public health measures, specifically non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Prior research in this regard highlighted the role of COVID-19 information sources as well as sociodemographic and other personal characteristics, however, there is only limited evidence including both. To bridge this gap, this study investigated the associations of COVID-19 information sources such as social media and participant characteristics with agreement with and adherence to NPIs during the first lockdown in Austria. METHODS: An online survey was conducted in May 2020 among adult Austrian residents asking about their experiences during the first lockdown. Collected data included sociodemographic characteristics, main COVID-19-related information sources, agreement with/adherence to three NPIs (no physical contact to family members not living in the same household, leisurely walks restricted to members of the same household, mandatory face masks) and information about perceived social support using the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), anxiety/depression levels using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), whether participants felt well advised by the government, and whether participants perceived the pandemic to threaten their income. Ordered and multinomial logistic regression models were employed to achieve the research aims. RESULTS: The cross-sectional sample consisted of 559 Austrian residents. Using social media as main COVID-19 information source was consistently associated with lower agreement with NPIs. A positive association with agreement with measures was found for higher educational backgrounds and higher anxiety levels. By contrast, higher levels of depression, not feeling well advised by the government, and perceiving the pandemic as an economic threat were negatively associated with agreement with measures. Moreover, the use of social media as main COVID-19 information source and not feeling well advised by the government were associated with lower adherence to NPIs. By contrast, higher levels of education were associated with higher adherence. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive analysis emphasizes the associations of COVID-19 information sources as well as sociodemographic and other participant characteristics with agreement with and adherence to NPIs, bearing important implications for future public health crisis communication strategies.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

Background: The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. Methods: This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Results: Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Conclusion: Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

The Changing Detection Rate of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Adults in Western Australia between 2017 and 2023.

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in adults is inadequately defined and the impact of SARS-CoV-2-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is underexplored. Using laboratory data, we described the detection rate of RSV in adults ≥16 years in Western Australia (WA) between 2017 and 2023. With the exception of 2020, RSV detections rose annually between 2017 and 2023, reaching 50.7 per 100,000 in 2023 (95% confidence interval [CI], 47.9-53.8). RSV testing expanded considerably across the study period, with the testing in 2023 more than five times the 2017 total. The detection rate was highest in adults ≥60 years between 2017 and 2019, particularly those ≥75 years. Following 2020, the detections in all age groups increased, with the highest detection rate in 2023 in those ≥75-years (199.5 per 100,000; 95% CI, 180.5-220). NPIs significantly impacted RSV seasonality; the preceding winter pattern was disrupted, resulting in an absent 2020 winter season and two major summer seasons in 2020/21 and 2021/22. The RSV season began to realign in 2022, reverting to a winter seasonal pattern in 2023 and the largest season in the study period. Ongoing surveillance will be required to understand the stability of these increases and to delineate the impact of new immunisation strategies.

The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022).

BACKGROUND: When formulating and evaluating COVID-19 vaccination strategies, an emphasis has been placed on preventing severe disease that overburdens healthcare systems and leads to mortality. However, more conventional outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and inequality indicators are warranted as additional information for policymakers. METHODS: We adopted a mathematical transmission model to describe the infectious disease dynamics of SARS-COV-2, including disease mortality and morbidity, and to evaluate (non)pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, we considered temporal immunity levels, together with the distinct transmissibility of variants of concern (VOCs) and their corresponding vaccine effectiveness. We included both general and age-specific characteristics related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our scenario study is informed by data from Belgium, focusing on the period from August 2021 until February 2022, when vaccination for children aged 5-11 years was initially not yet licensed and first booster doses were administered to adults. More specifically, we investigated the potential impact of an earlier vaccination programme for children and increased or reduced historical adult booster dose uptake. RESULTS: Through simulations, we demonstrate that increasing vaccine uptake in children aged 5-11 years in August-September 2021 could have led to reduced disease incidence and ICU occupancy, which was an essential indicator for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions and maintaining healthcare system functionality. However, an enhanced booster dose regimen for adults from November 2021 onward could have resulted in more substantial cumulative QALY gains, particularly through the prevention of elevated levels of infection and disease incidence associated with the emergence of Omicron VOC. In both scenarios, the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions could have decreased, potentially boosting economic activity and mental well-being. CONCLUSIONS: When calculating the impact of measures to mitigate disease spread in terms of life years lost due to COVID-19 mortality, we highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life of survivors. Our study underscores that disease-related morbidity could constitute a significant part of the overall health burden. Our quantitative findings depend on the specific setup of the interventions under review, which is open to debate or should be contextualised within future situations.

Factors associated with compliance with barrier gestures and social distancing measures in France.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led many countries to drastically limit social activities. The objective of this study is to describe the factors associated with compliance with protective measures and social distancing in the general adult population in France, between March and December 2020 (first and second waves of the epidemic), before vaccination began at the end of December 2020. METHOD: The data come from the CoviPrev repeated cross-sectional descriptive survey, conducted between March 2020 and December 2022 in metropolitan France. The data collected from March to December 2020 (19 survey waves), from a panel representative of the general population, were used. Three periods were defined: the first epidemic wave (March-April), the inter-wave period (May-June) and the second epidemic wave (November-December). A compliance score was constructed to measure systematic compliance with the five main measures. The association between systematic compliance and different variables (sociodemographic, mental health, level of health literacy, perceived severity of COVID-19, confidence in government, perceived effectiveness of the measures) was described using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models, using the statistical software R. RESULTS: Systematic compliance with the preventive measures changed over time. Regardless of the period, being a woman, being over 50, perceiving COVID-19 as severe, having a high level of health literacy or anxiety were positively associated with compliance. Having a child under 16 years of age and perceiving the measures as effective were positively associated with compliance with the protective measures during the epidemic waves; conversely, having a high level of depression, living alone, not working were negatively associated in the first epidemic wave. Finally, during the inter-wave period, living in an area heavily affected during the first wave and having a high level of education were positively and negatively associated with systematic compliance with the preventive measures, respectively. CONCLUSION: The factors associated with compliance with the protective measures and social distancing evolved during the epidemic. Monitoring this evolution, in order to adapt communication and awareness strategies, is essential in the context of pandemic response.

Epidemiology of Escherichia coli bloodstream infection antimicrobial resistance trends across South West England during the first 2 years of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic response.

OBJECTIVES: Between 2016 and 2019, the proportion of Escherichia coli bloodstream infection (BSI) with resistance to at least one antibiotic increased nationally. Public health interventions implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic changed population contact patterns and healthcare systems, with consequent effects on epidemiological trends of numerous pathogens. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on epidemiological trends of E. coli BSI antimicrobial resistance (AMR) across South West England. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective ecological analysis utilizing routine surveillance data of E. coli BSI cases reported to the UK Health Security Agency between 2016 and 2021. We analysed AMR trends for antimicrobial agents including amoxicillin-clavulanate, ciprofloxacin, piperacillin-tazobactam, gentamicin, third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems before and after the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions (23 March 2020) using Bayesian segmented regression. RESULTS: We identified 19 055 cases. A total of 50.2% were male. Median age was 76 (interquartile range, 65-85 years). Piperacillin-tazobactam (-2.90% [95% highest density interval {HDI} -4.51%, -0.48%]) and ciprofloxacin (-2.40% [95% HDI -4.35%, 0.48%]) resistance demonstrated immediate step changes at the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions. Gentamicin (odds ratio [OR] 0.92 [95% HDI 0.76, 1.12]) and third-generation cephalosporins (OR 0.95 [95% HDI 0.80, 1.14]) exhibited decreasing annual resistance trends after the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions, with moderate evidence for a lower OR after restrictions as compared to the period before (gentamicin Bayes Factor = 5.10, third-generation cephalosporins Bayes Factor = 6.67). DISCUSSION: COVID-19 restrictions led to abrupt and longer term changes to E.coli BSI AMR. The immediate effects suggest altered transmission, whereas changes to resistant E. coli reservoirs may explain trend effects.

Unlocking the importance of perceived governance: The impact on COVID-19 in NUTS-2 European regions.

In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, governments implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Previous literature suggests that NPI effectiveness is influenced by governance quality. The acceptance and perceived necessity of these measures by the public are crucial to their success, as NPIs cannot be easily enforced without public support. Does regional governance also play a role? This study examines the correlation between the quality of governance in European NUTS-2 regions and the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that overall perceived governance, and its perceived quality and corruption pillars, significantly impact the effectiveness of these interventions. This effect was pronounced during the first wave and then diminished in importance, disappearing before vaccines were available, suggesting that regional governance matters especially in the immediate aftermath of an exogenous shock.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach.

Objectives: This paper aims to measure the impact of the implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) during the pandemic using simulation modeling. Methods: To measure the impact of NPI, a hybrid agent-based and system dynamics simulation model was built and validated. Data were collected prospectively on a weekly basis. The core epidemiological model is based on a complex Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered and Dead model of epidemic dynamics. Reverse engineering was performed on a weekly basis throughout the study period as a mean for model validation which reported on four outcomes: total cases, active cases, ICU cases, and deaths cases. To measure the impact of each NPI, the observed values of active and total cases were captured and compared to the projected values of active and total cases from the simulation. To measure the impact of each NPI, the study period was divided into rounds of incubation periods (cycles of 14 days each). The behavioral change of the spread of the disease was interpreted as the impact of NPIs that occurred at the beginning of the cycle. The behavioral change was measured by the change in the initial reproduction rate (R0). Results: After 18 weeks of the reverse engineering process, the model achieved a 0.4 % difference in total cases for prediction at the end of the study period. The results estimated that NPIs led to 64 % change in The R0. Our breakdown analysis of the impact of each NPI indicates that banning going to schools had the greatest impact on the infection reproduction rate (24 %). Conclusion: We used hybrid simulation modeling to measure the impact of NPIs taken by the KSA government. The finding further supports the notion that early NPIs adoption can effectively limit the spread of COVID-19. It also supports using simulation for building mathematical modeling for epidemiological scenarios.

Effectiveness of cloth face masks to prevent viral spread: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of cloth face masks to prevent viral spread has not yet been conclusively established. In this meta-analysis, we evaluate their effectiveness in comparison to standard medical/surgical and N95-typed masks against viral spread. METHODS: We identified literature through a systematic search in three databases and meta-analytically synthesized relevant studies by means of random-effects as well as multilevel modelling. RESULTS: Twelve studies comprising k = 28 effect sizes (N = 338) were included. Medical/surgical and N95-typed masks outperformed cloth masks, yielding a large effect (g = 1.40). This effect remained robust when data were grouped according to comparisons with medical/surgical masks (g = 1.25) and N95-typed masks (g = 1.29). However, effects were differentiated according to mask fit, indicating reversals of signs when cloth mask effects were compared with ill-fitting medical/surgical and N95-typed masks (gs = -12.50 and - 10.90, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Cloth face masks were found to have significantly poorer filtering performance than medical/surgical masks and N95 masks, but only if non-cloth masks were properly fitted. Our results illustrate the necessity of using well-fitting medical/surgical or N95-typed masks to prevent viral spread, although some allowance should be made in circumstances where higher compliance with cloth mask mandates are expected.

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US.

Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.

Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence and Treatment of Chronic Rhinosinusitis during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.

Many countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, the impacts of NPIs on the epidemiology and treatment of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) remain unclear. We analyzed 671,216 patients to investigate changes in the incidence rate and treatment frequency of CRS using Korean nationwide health insurance data between 2017 and 2021. The incidence rate (p < 0.001) and the number of outpatients (p < 0.001), patients hospitalized (p < 0.001), and patients prescribed antibiotics (p < 0.001) or steroids (p = 0.024) were significantly lower in the pandemic period than in the pre-pandemic period; however, the number of patients who underwent surgery was not different (p = 0.205). Additionally, the frequency of surgeries per patient was significantly lower in patients during the pandemic period (p < 0.001). In the interrupted time series analysis, the trends in the number of outpatients (p < 0.001), patients hospitalized (p < 0.001), patients who underwent surgery (p < 0.001), and patients prescribed antibiotics (p < 0.001) or steroids (p < 0.001) significantly changed after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In summary, NPI implementation during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a reduction in the incidence and treatment of CRS.

Analysis of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic by time-series forecasting.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in South Korea during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. The social distancing measures, as effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), adopted to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 might have influenced influenza activity. We evaluated IFV(influenza virus) activity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the effect of NPI intensity on influenza transmission. METHODS: IFV activity and epidemic duration during COVID-19 pandemic were predicted under a counterfactual scenario with no NPIs against COVID-19. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model was used to quantify the effects of NPIs on the transmission of influenza virus. Influenza-like illness/1000 outpatients and IFV positivity rate from the 2011-2012 to 2021-2022 seasons were used in this study. RESULTS: Comparison of the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasonal influenza activities with those in 2013-2019 showed that COVID-19 outbreaks and associated NPIs such as face mask use, school closures, and travel restrictions reduced the influenza incidence by 91%. Without NPIs against COVID-19, the rates of influenza-like illness and IFV positivity would have been high during the influenza epidemic season, as in previous seasons. NPI intensity decreased the transmission of influenza; the magnitude of the reduction increased as the intensity of social-distancing measures increased (weak social distancing; step-by-step daily recovery: 58.10%, strong social distancing; special quarantine measures: 95.12%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that NPIs and personal hygiene can be used to suppress influenza transmission. NPIs against COVID-19 may be useful strategies for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics.

Deep reinforcement learning framework for controlling infectious disease outbreaks in the context of multi-jurisdictions.

In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown have been key options for controlling new or reemerging respiratory infectious disease outbreaks. The timely implementation of these interventions is vital for effectively controlling and safeguarding the economy.Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we evaluated whether, when, and to what level lockdowns are necessary to minimize epidemic and economic burdens of new disease outbreaks. We formulated the question as a sequential decision-making Markov Decision Process and solved it using deep Q-network algorithm. We evaluated the question under two objective functions: a 2-objective function to minimize economic burden and hospital capacity violations, suitable for diseases with severe health risks but with minimal death, and a 3-objective function that additionally minimizes the number of deaths, suitable for diseases that have high risk of mortality.A key feature of the model is that we evaluated the above questions in the context of two-geographical jurisdictions that interact through travel but make autonomous and independent decisions, evaluating under cross-jurisdictional cooperation and non-cooperation. In the 2-objective function under cross-jurisdictional cooperation, the optimal policy was to aim for shutdowns at 50 and 25% per day. Though this policy avoided hospital capacity violations, the shutdowns extended until a large proportion of the population reached herd immunity. Delays in initiating this optimal policy or non-cooperation from an outside jurisdiction required shutdowns at a higher level of 75% per day, thus adding to economic burdens. In the 3-objective function, the optimal policy under cross-jurisdictional cooperation was to aim for shutdowns of up to 75% per day to prevent deaths by reducing infected cases. This optimal policy continued for the entire duration of the simulation, suggesting that, until pharmaceutical interventions such as treatment or vaccines become available, contact reductions through physical distancing would be necessary to minimize deaths. Deviating from this policy increased the number of shutdowns and led to several deaths.In summary, we present a decision-analytic methodology for identifying optimal lockdown strategy under the context of interactions between jurisdictions that make autonomous and independent decisions. The numerical analysis outcomes are intuitive and, as expected, serve as proof of the feasibility of such a model. Our sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the optimal policy exhibits robustness to minor alterations in the transmission rate, yet shows sensitivity to more substantial deviations. This finding underscores the dynamic nature of epidemic parameters, thereby emphasizing the necessity for models trained across a diverse range of values to ensure effective policy-making.

Wearing masks to prevent one epidemic may mask another.

Background: With attempts at lifting most COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions, other common respiratory viruses have caused more health concern than in earlier seasons in pediatric populations. Objective: To explore the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in a rebound in other respiratory viral pathogens, especially in light of general vaccination fatigue, COVID-19 boosters, and operational challenges in the healthcare system. Methods: A research-based commentary supported with recent literature review. Findings: Pandemic-related lockdowns in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand have created a significant population of susceptible young children without preexisting immunity due to lack of exposure during the colder months. Relying on NPIs for a prolonged period due to low vaccination rates may lead to increased respiratory infection susceptibility, especially among young children less than 5 years old. The key public health question is whether NPIs should be implemented in the long run and what are the long-term implications on the dynamics of endemic infections and population immunity. Discussion: Prevention cannot be the only cure for any infectious disease, and long-term impact of NPIs depends on the dynamics of population susceptibility. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has reinforced the importance of vaccination and the knowledge on vaccine use combined with NPIs will be of great value in controlling other known and unknown respiratory pathogens. Combining NPIs and vaccination is paramount in disease control, and the discussion on how to prevent collateral damage to sensitive populations while relaxing NPI-related measures should also merit attention.