Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and Pi*Z allele as important co-factors in the development of liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a codominant autosomal hereditary condition that predisposes patients to the development of lung and/or liver disease, and Pi*Z allele is the most clinically relevant mutation. AIM: To evaluate the impact of clinical parameters and AATD phenotypes, particularly the Pi*Z allele, in liver fibrosis. METHODS: Cross-sectional cohort study including consecutive patients with AATD followed in Pulmonology or Hepatology consultation. RESULTS: Included 69 patients, 49.3% had Pi*MZ phenotype and 10.1% Pi*ZZ. An age ≥ 55 years, age at diagnosis ≥ 41 years and AAT at diagnosis < 77 mg/dL predicted a nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) not excluding advanced fibrosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.840, P < 0.001; AUC = 0.836, P < 0.001; AUC = 0.681, P = 0.025]. An age ≥ 50 years and age at diagnosis ≥ 41 years predicted a fibrosis-4 index of moderate to advanced fibrosis (AUC = 0.831, P < 0.001; AUC = 0.795, P < 0.001). Patients with hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), dyslipidaemia, metabolic syndrome, and regular alcohol consumption were more likely to have a NFS not excluding advanced fibrosis (P < 0.001, P = 0.002, P = 0.008, P < 0.001, P = 0.033). Patients with at least one Pi*Z allele and type 2 DM were 8 times more likely to have liver stiffness measurement ≥ 7.1 kPa (P = 0.040). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for liver disease in AATD included an age ≥ 50 years, age at diagnosis ≥ 41 years, metabolic risk factors, regular alcohol consumption, at least one Pi*Z allele, and AAT value at diagnosis < 77 mg/dL. We created an algorithm for liver disease screening in AATD patients to use in primary care, selecting those to be referred to Hepatology consultation.

Is Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index a Better Noninvasive Score for Predicting Advanced Fibrosis in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients?

Background: In the 21st century, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most prevalent liver disorder. The prevalence of NAFLD within the general population in India ranges from 9 to 53%. The gold standard for assessing the severity of liver fibrosis is liver biopsy. However, due to various difficulties involved with liver biopsy, it is imperative to identify different non-invasive tools that can replace liver biopsy. Methodology: A prospective observational study of 130 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for NAFLD was done for a period of 18 months. We aimed to compare the performance characteristics of different noninvasive scores [fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI)] in predicting advanced fibrosis as assessed by FibroScan. Results: In the study, 76.9% of patients were male. Advanced fibrosis was seen in 12.3% of the patients. Majority of the patients with advanced fibrosis had metabolic syndrome. Based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), the new cut-off for ruling out advanced fibrosis for FIB-4, NFS, and APRI were 1.18, -0.9, and 0.65, respectively, and APRI had the best AUROC (0.768). Conclusion: Abnormal glycemic status and metabolic syndrome were risk factors for advanced fibrosis. The newly derived cut-offs for the FIB-4 score, NFS score, and APRI score had a better Negative predictive value compared to the original cut-offs. How to cite this article: Bhayani PD, Parameswaran SA, Palaniswamy KR, et al. Is Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index a Better Noninvasive Score for Predicting Advanced Fibrosis in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients? Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2024;14(1):35-39.

Diagnostic performances of Fibrosis-4 index and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in Asian primary care clinics.

AIMS: We aimed to explore the extent to which individuals previously diagnosed with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) meet the criteria fulfilled with the new nomenclature, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), within an Asian primary clinic cohort. Additionally, we assessed the reliability of the diagnostic performance of FIB-4 and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) for MASLD within the primary clinic cohort. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study included participants who underwent magnetic resonance elastography and abdominal ultrasonography during their health checkups at nationwide health promotion centers (n = 6740). RESULTS: The prevalence rates of NAFLD and MASLD diagnosed based on ultrasonography results were 36.7% and 38.0%, respectively. Notably, 96.8% of patients in the NAFLD cohort fulfilled the new criteria for MASLD. A small proportion of patients with NAFLD (n = 80, 3.2%) did not meet the MASLD criteria. Additionally, 168 patients (6.6%) were newly added to the MASLD group. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for diagnosing advanced hepatic fibrosis for FIB-4 (0.824 in NAFLD vs. 0.818 in MASLD, p = 0.891) and NFS (0.803 in NAFLD vs. 0.781 in MASLD, p = 0.618) were comparable between the MASLD and NAFLD groups. Furthermore, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of FIB-4 and NFS for advanced fibrosis in MASLD were also comparable to those in NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients (96.8%) previously diagnosed with NAFLD fulfilled the new criteria for MASLD in an Asian primary clinic cohort. Diagnostic performance of FIB-4 in the MASLD cohort demonstrated satisfactory results.

Predictability of noninvasive liver fibrosis score for cardiac events in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have a higher risk of cardiac events. However, although the severity of liver fibrosis is related to worsening prognosis in patients with NAFLD, it is unclear whether the noninvasive liver fibrosis score has a predictive value for cardiac events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated 4071 patients with NAFLD diagnosed using ultrasonography. Liver fibrosis was assessed and divided into three groups based on the Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). The primary outcome of this study was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization due to coronary artery disease. The median age of the evaluated patients was 61 (52-69) years, and 2201 (54.1%) were male. During the median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 179 (4.4%) patients experienced MACE. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that MACE increased progressively with the FIB4 index (log-rank, p < 0.001) and NFS (log-rank, p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that the higher the FIB4 index, the higher the risk for MACE (low group as reference vs. intermediate group, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.860 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.326-2.610; p < 0.001]; vs. high group, HR:3.325 [95% CI, 2.017-5.479; p < 0.001]), as well as NFS (low NFS group as reference vs. intermediate group, HR: 1.938 [95% CI, 1.391-2.699; p < 0.001]; vs. high group, HR: 3.492 [95% CI, 1.997-6.105; p < 0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: The FIB4 index and NFS are associated with the probability of MACE in patients with NAFLD. CLINICAL TRIALS: The study design was approved by the ethics review board of Ogaki Municipal Hospital (approval number: 20221124-12, registration date: November 28th, 2022). https://www.ogaki-mh.jp/chiken/kenkyu.html.

Liver injury indicators and subsequent cancer development among non-fatty liver population.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association between liver indicators (The FIB-4 index, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), and fatty liver index (FLI)) and cancer development in patients without preexisting liver disease. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with participants who underwent voluntary health checkups and without fatty liver between 2005 and 2018. Our primary outcome was the development of any type of cancer, and its association with each liver indicator was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 69,592 participants (mean age: 43.9 years, 29,984 (43.1%) were men) were included. During a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 3779 (5.4%) patients developed cancer. Compared to participants with a low NFS, those with a medium NFS had a higher risk of developing any type of cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.31), whereas those with a medium FIB-4 index had a decreased risk of developing any type of cancer compared to those with a low FIB-4 index (adjusted HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.83-0.99). Patients with higher scores tended to have a higher risk of digestive organ cancer, regardless of the indicator. A high FLI was also associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted HR: 2.42, 95% CI: 1.24-4.71); however, those with a medium FIB-4 index (adjusted HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.52-0.81) and NFS (adjusted HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.35-0.72) had decreased risks of developing breast cancer compared to those with a high FIB-4 index and NFS, respectively. CONCLUSION: Among patients without fatty liver, a higher liver indicator score was associated with an increased risk of cancer in the digestive organs, regardless of the indicator. Notably, those with a medium FIB-4 index or NFS had a lower risk of developing breast cancer, whereas those with a medium FLI had an increased risk.

Posttreatment nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis scores for predicting liver-related complications in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antiviral agents.

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) have a higher prevalence of hepatic steatosis and dyslipidaemia than healthy individuals. We analysed noninvasive fibrosis assessments, especially nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related noninvasive fibrosis tests, for predicting liver-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in patients with CHC. This retrospective study enrolled 590 consecutive patients with CHC having a sustained virologic response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral agent (DAA) therapy. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) exhibiting the highest value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was selected for comparison with the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). Of the 590 patients, 188 had metabolic syndrome. A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified total bilirubin at 3 or 6 months after DAA therapy (PW12), NFS at PW12 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.125, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.058-4.267, p = .034) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at PW12 (HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005-1.142, p = .034) as the independent predictors of liver-related complications in all patients. In patients with metabolic syndrome, NFS and AFP values at PW12 were independent predictors of liver-related complications and HCC occurrence. Time-dependent NFS AUROC values at PW12 for 1-, 2- and 3-year liver-related complications were higher than NFS values at baseline in patients with metabolic syndrome. NFS at baseline or PW12 is a more effective predictor of liver-related complications than FIB-4 values in all patients. NFS at PW12 may be a useful predictor of liver-related complications and HCC development in patients with CHC with an SVR to DAA therapy, especially in those with metabolic syndrome.

Validation model of fibrosis-8 index score to predict significant fibrosis among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Identifying hepatic fibrosis is crucial for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) management. The fibrosis-8 (FIB-8) score, recently developed by incorporating four additional variables into the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, showed better performance in predicting significant fibrosis in NAFLD. AIM: To validate the FIB-8 score in a biopsy-proven NAFLD cohort and compare the diagnostic performance of the FIB-8 and FIB-4 scores and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) for predicting significant fibrosis. METHODS: We collected the data of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from three Asian centers in three countries. All the patients with available variables for the FIB-4 score (age, platelet count, and aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels) and FIB-8 score (the FIB-4 variables plus 4 additional parameters: The body mass index (BMI), albumin to globulin ratio, gamma-glutamyl transferase level, and presence of diabetes mellitus) were included. The fibrosis stage was scored using nonalcoholic steatohepatitis CRN criteria, and significant fibrosis was defined as at least fibrosis stage 2. RESULTS: A total of 511 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and complete data were included for validation. Of these 511 patients, 271 (53.0%) were female, with a median age of 51 (interquartile range: 41, 58) years. The median BMI was 29 (26.3, 32.6) kg/m2, and 268 (52.4%) had diabetes. Among the 511 NAFLD patients, 157 (30.7%) had significant fibrosis (≥ F2). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the FIB-8 and FIB-4 scores and NFS for predicting significant fibrosis were 0.774, 0.743, and 0.680, respectively. The FIB-8 score demonstrated significantly better performance for predicting significant fibrosis than the NFS (P = 0.001) and was also clinically superior to FIB-4, although statistical significance was not reached (P = 0.073). The low cutoff point of the FIB-8 score for predicting significant fibrosis of 0.88 showed 92.36% sensitivity, and the high cutoff point of the FIB-8 score for predicting significant fibrosis of 1.77 showed 67.51% specificity. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that the FIB-8 score had significantly better performance for predicting significant fibrosis in NAFLD patients than the NFS, as well as clinically superior performance vs the FIB-4 score in an Asian population. A novel simple fibrosis score comprising commonly accessible basic laboratories may be beneficial to use for an initial assessment in primary care units, excluding patients with significant liver fibrosis and aiding in patient selection for further hepatologist referral.

Hepamet Fibrosis Score in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients in Mexico: Lower than Expected Positive Predictive Value.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been associated with different negative outcomes in the presence of advanced fibrosis. The Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS), a recently described noninvasive score, has shown excellent performance for the detection of advanced fibrosis. The aim of this study was to assess its performance in a Mexican population with NAFLD. METHODS: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study performed in 222 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, of whom 33(14%) had advanced fibrosis. We retrieved clinical data from each patient's medical record to compute the HFS, the NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), and the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and assess their performance. RESULTS: When considering the models as continuous variables, the area under the receiving operating characteristics curve of the HFS(0.758) was not different from that of the NFS(0.669, p = 0.09) or FIB-4(0.796, p = 0.1). The HFS had a sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 76.7% (95% CI 57.7-90.1), 90.1% (95% CI 85-93.9), 36.7% (95% CI 19.9-56.1), and 94.3% (95% CI 88.5-97.7), respectively. Indeterminate results (i.e., gray area) were more common with FIB-4 and HFS when compared with NFS [139(63%) and 122(55%) vs 80(36%), p < 0.001]. The variables that were associated with misclassification using the HFS were diabetes [OR 3.40 (95% CI 1.42-8.10), p = 0.006] and age [OR 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.11), p = 0.01]. CONCLUSION: The HFS showed sensitivity and specificity similar to that reported in the original publication; however, the positive predictive value was 36.7% at a pretest probability of 14%. The role of the HFS in prospective studies and in combination with other methods should be further explored.

The Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score Is Related to Epicardial Fat Thickness and Complexity of Coronary Artery Disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome and is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS) is an index used for the detection of liver fibrosis. We investigated the relationship between NFS and complexity of coronary artery disease (CAD). In this cross-sectional study, 109 patients with CAD and 50 patients without CAD were enrolled. Demographic data, laboratory parameters, epicardial fat thickness (EFT), NFS, and Synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and cardiac surgery (SYNTAX) score were recorded. Waist circumference, fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), EFT, and NFS were significantly higher in the CAD group (P < .05). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and ejection fraction were significantly lower in the CAD group (P < .05). The SYNTAX score was positively correlated with fasting glucose, LDL-C, EFT, and NFS and negatively correlated with HDL-C (P < .05). The NFS was positively correlated with EFT (P = .019). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that NFS (P = .012), EFT (P < .001), and LDL-C (P = .001) were independently associated with the SYNTAX score. In conclusion, NFS, as a marker of NAFLD, could identify patients at higher risk of CVD.

Testing the ability of the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score to predict 1-year all-cause hospital admission.

The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) has been shown to be a cost-effective screening strategy in the primary care setting to determine when gastroenterology referral is needed, but NFS as a predictor of hospitalization within 1 year is uncertain. This retrospective observational cohort study involved 1803 patients with a diagnosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. The NFS was categorized into the following: low (less than -1.455), moderate (between -1.455 and 0.676), and high (>0.676). The average NFS score by hospital admission was -0.760, the average number of admissions was 1.81, and the median number of days to hospital admission was 135.8 days (45.5-363, 25th to 75th percentile). A univariate logistic regression model showed that NFS significantly predicted hospital admission (P = 0.007); however, a multivariate logistic regression model, after adjusting for hypertension and tobacco use, indicated that NFS was not significantly associated with hospital admission. Using the logistic regression model, hypertension predicted admission at low (P < 0.0001) and moderate (P = 0.0005) NFS. Using this same model, tobacco use also predicted admission at low (P < 0.0001) and moderate (P = 0.0002) NFS. The NFS should not be used to determine which patients are at increased risk of hospitalization.

Diabetic Retinopathy as a Risk Factor Associated with the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are still unclear. The aim of the present study was to identify such risk factors in NAFLD patients who developed HCC. METHODS: Between April 2000 and -December 2016, a total of 182 patients with NAFLD were enrolled in this study; of these, only 22 patients had HCC. To identify risk factors, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. To identify risk factors other than the degree of fibrosis, propensity matched analysis adjusted by the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) was carried out on 44 patients. Multivariate and survival analyses were also performed in HCC patients. RESULTS: In 182 patients, multivariate analysis highlighted the NFS (OR 2.275; p < 0.001) and hypertension (OR 5.868; p = 0.037) as independent factors that were significantly associated with the development of HCC. After adjustment for the NFS, multivariate analysis identified diabetic retinopathy (OR 8.654; p = 0.017) as an independent factor that was significantly associated with the development of HCC. For predicting the development of HCC, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of diabetic retinopathy was significantly higher than that of diabetes (0.731 vs. 0.615; p < 0.001). In patients with HCC, multivariate analysis indicated that the NFS were significantly associated with diabetic retinopathy. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetic retinopathy as well as liver fibrosis is a risk factor that associates with the development of HCC in NAFLD patients. Therefore, NAFLD patients with diabetic retinopathy should undergo careful screening for HCC.

The utility of NAFLD fibrosis score for prediction of mortality among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common liver disorder worldwide. Several noninvasive diagnostic scoring systems have been developed to determine the severity of liver fibrosis and to predict long-term outcome of patients with NAFLD in lieu of liver biopsy. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) for prediction of mortality from NAFLD. METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched through October 2016 for studies that investigated the association between high NFS and mortality. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using a random-effects model, generic inverse variance method. The between-study heterogeneity of effect-size was quantified using the Q statistic and I2. RESULTS: A total of five cohort studies with 5033 NAFLD patients were identified. High NFS (score of greater than 0.675) was significantly associated with increased mortality with the pooled RR of 4.54 (95%CI: 1.85-11.17). The statistical heterogeneity was high with I2 of 88% (Pheterogeneity<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: High NFS is associated with increased risk of mortality among patients with NAFLD. This scoring system may be considered as an alternative to liver biopsy for prediction of mortality outcome.

Effect of Qianggan capsules on insulin resistance index and liver fibrosis score in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease / 临床肝胆病杂志

ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of Qianggan capsules on liver fibrosis score and insulin resistance index in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). MethodsA total of 85 NAFLD patients who were treated in the Eighth People′s Hospital of Shanghai from August 2014 to July 2015 were enrolled and randomly divided into treatment group (45 patients) and control group (40 patients). The patients in the treatment group were given Qianggan capsules, and those in the control group were given polyene phosphatidylcholine capsules. The course of treatment was 24 weeks for both groups. The changes in serum aminotransferases ［aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT)］, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NAFLDFS) after treatment were observed in both groups. The t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between groups, before-after comparison within each group was made by paired t-test; and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. ResultsBoth groups showed significant improvements in ALT and AST levels after treatment (all P＜001). After treatment the treatment group showed significant reductions in HOMA-IR and NAFLDFS (358±085 vs 248±078，t=640，P＜001; -178±124 vs -235±098,t=240,P＜001) and the treatment group had significantly lower HOMA-IR and NAFLDFS than the control group(1248±078 vs 309±089,t=336,P＜001;-235±098 vs -148±108,t=380,P＜001). No serious adverse events were observed during the course of treatment. ConclusionQianggan capsules not only reduce the levels of serum aminotransferases, but also improve insulin resistance and reduce fibrosis degree in NAFLD patients.

NAFLD fibrosis score: a prognostic predictor for mortality and liver complications among NAFLD patients.

AIM: To study whether the severity of liver fibrosis estimated by the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score can predict all-cause mortality, cardiac complications, and/or liver complications of patients with NAFLD over long-term follow-up. METHODS: A cohort of well-characterized patients with NAFLD diagnosed during the period of 1980-2000 was identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) was used to separate NAFLD patients with and without advanced liver fibrosis. We used the NFS score to classify the probability of fibrosis as < -1.5 for low probability, > -1.5 to < 0.67 for intermediate probability, and > 0.67 for high probability. Primary endpoints included all-cause death and cardiovascular- and/or liver-related mortality. From the 479 patients with NAFLD assessed, 302 patients (63%) greater than 18 years old were included. All patients were followed, and medical charts were reviewed until August 31, 2009 or the date when the first primary endpoint occurred. By using a standardized case record form, we recorded a detailed history and physical examination and the use of statins and metformin during the follow-up period. RESULTS: A total of 302/479 (63%) NAFLD patients (mean age: 47 ± 13 year) were included with a follow-up period of 12.0 ± 3.9 year. A low probability of advanced fibrosis (NFS < -1.5 at baseline) was found in 181 patients (60%), while an intermediate or high probability of advanced fibrosis (NSF > -1.5) was found in 121 patients (40%). At the end of the follow-up period, 55 patients (18%) developed primary endpoints. A total of 39 patients (13%) died during the follow-up. The leading causes of death were non-hepatic malignancy (n = 13/39; 33.3%), coronary heart disease (CHD) (n = 8/39; 20.5%), and liver-related mortality (n = 5/39; 12.8%). Thirty patients had new-onset CHD, whereas 8 of 30 patients (27%) died from CHD-related causes during the follow-up. In a multivariate analysis, a higher NFS at baseline and the presence of new-onset CHD were significantly predictive of death (OR = 2.6 and 9.2, respectively; P < 0.0001). Our study showed a significant, graded relationship between the NFS, as classified into 3 subgroups (low, intermediate and high probability of liver fibrosis), and the occurrence of primary endpoints. The use of metformin or simvastatin for at least 3 mo during the follow-up was associated with fewer deaths in patients with NAFLD (OR = 0.2 and 0.03, respectively; P < 0.05). Additionally, the rate of annual NFS change in patients with an intermediate or high probability of advanced liver fibrosis was significantly lower than those patients with a low probability of advanced liver fibrosis (0.06 vs 0.09, P = 0.004). The annual NFS change in patients who died was significantly higher than those in patients who survived (0.14 vs 0.07, P = 0.03). At the end of the follow-up, we classified the patients into 3 subgroups according to the progression pattern of liver fibrosis by comparing the NFS at baseline to the NFS at the end of the follow-up period. Most patients were in the stable-fibrosis (60%) and progressive-fibrosis (37%) groups, whereas only 3% were in the regressive fibrosis. CONCLUSION: A higher NAFLD fibrosis score at baseline and a new onset of CHD were significantly predictive of death in patients with NAFLD.