Ecological niche modeling of two Microtheca Stål, 1860 species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Chrysomelinae) in the Americas: insights from Brassicaceae occurrence.

Biological invasions pose significant threats to biodiversity, with invasive species spread often facilitated by human activities. Consequently, this research utilized ecological niche modeling (ENM) to overcome this limitation and map the potential suitability of Microtheca ochroloma Stål, 1860 and Microtheca semilaevis Stål, 1860, which have been evaluated as potential insect pests in the Americas, zones for four genera of Brassicaceae, which include globally cultivated species such as Sinapis L., Raphanus L., Eruca Mill., and Brassica L. We utilized multiple methods to forecast the ecological habitat of Microtheca Stål, 1860 species based on distribution data and various environmental indicators. Our models, exhibiting high-performance metrics (TSS ranging from 0.84 to 0.96), revealed extensive environmental suitability for these species across the Americas, including previously unreported regions. The predicted zones overlapped significantly with areas where Brassicaceae crops were grown. Contrary to some previous assertions, our findings suggest that while these Microtheca species are recognized pests on these crops, their consistent widespread damage may be overstated. Nevertheless, their invasive potential could have broad ecological impacts, including biodiversity loss. Our research emphasizes the need for focused sampling in potential distribution zones and underlines the value of integrating ENM in predicting and managing invasive species spread.

Species distribution models to predict the impacts of environmental disasters on shrimp species of economic interest.

Here, we used distribution models to predict the size of the environmentally suitable area for shrimps of fishing interest that were impacted by the tailing plume from the collapse of the Fundão Dam, one of the largest ecological disasters ever to occur in Brazil. Species distribution models (SDMs) were generated for nine species of penaeid shrimp that occurred in the impacted region. Average temperature showed the highest percentage of contribution for SDMs. The environmental suitability of penaeids varied significantly in relation to the distance to the coast and mouth river. The area of environmental suitability of shrimps impacted by tailings plumes ranged from 27 to 47 %. Notably, three protected areas displayed suitable conditions, before the disaster, for until eight species. The results obtained by the SDMs approach provide crucial information for conservation and restoration efforts of coastal biodiversity in an impacted region with limited prior knowledge about biodiversity distribution.

Effect of an altitudinal gradient on the morphology, molecular identification and distribution of Rhipicephalus linnaei in Veracruz, Mexico.

Studies of morphological and genetic variation in vector populations across environmental gradients can help researchers to estimate species' responses to climate change scenarios and the potential risk of disease-causing pathogen expansion, which impacts negatively on human health. In this study, we analysed the effect of altitudinal gradients on the phenotypic response of the hard tick of medical and veterinary importance, Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (s.l.). Specimens of R. sanguineus s.l. were collected from host animals in one of Mexico's regions with high climatic heterogeneity (Veracruz), and geometric morphometric theory was employed to assess the response of three morphological characters to the altitudinal gradient. Additionally, genetic similarity data were provided, and ecological niche models were used to project the climatic distribution in the region. Our results demonstrate that the shape and size of ticks respond to altitude. Molecular identification indicate that all analysed samples correspond to the tropical lineage recently named Rhipicephalus linnaei. According to ecological niche models, the mean annual temperature contributes significantly to the spatial distribution of this tick species, with areas of higher suitability in the mountainous region. These changes in morphological structure and the presence of ticks at higher altitudinal gradients suggest that R. linnaei has a high potential for adaptation. Due to the variability of ecosystems in the state of Veracruz, our results could be valuable in assessing the response of this tick in a changing environment, aiding in predicting future scenarios in the distribution and abundance of this species.

Combining phylogeography and ecological niche modeling to infer the evolutionary history of the Cordoba vesper mouse (Calomys venustus).

The evolutionary dynamics of the ecoregions of southern South America and the species that inhabit them have been poorly studied, and few biogeographic hypotheses have been proposed and tested. Quaternary climatic oscillations are among the most important processes that have led to the current distribution of genetic variation in different regions of the world. In this work, we studied the evolutionary history and distribution of the Córdoba vesper mouse (Calomys venustus), a characteristic rodent of the region of which little is known about its natural history. Since the population dynamics of this species are influenced by climatic factors, this rodent is a suitable model to study the effects of Quaternary climatic oscillations in central Argentina. The mitochondrial cytochrome b gene was sequenced to analyze the phylogeography of C. venustus, and ecological niche modeling tools were used to map its potential distributions. The results of these approaches were combined to provide additional spatially explicit information about this species' past. Our results suggest that the Espinal was the area of origin of this species, which expanded demographically and spatially during the last glacial period. A close relationship was found between the Espinal and the Mountain Chaco. These results are consistent with previous studies and emphasize the role of the Espinal in the biogeographic history of southern South America as an area of origin of several species.

The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes on the existing niche and potential distribution of vector and host species of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis.

Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans by a protozoan parasite through sandfly vectors and multiple vertebrate hosts. The Pan American Health Organization reported a declining trend in cases, with Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Nicaragua, and Bolivia having the most cases in 2020. There are still knowledge gaps in transmission and the parasite-host relationship. Ecological niche modeling has been used to study host-vector relationships, disease dynamics, and the impact of climate change. Understanding these aspects can aid in early surveillance and vector control strategies. The potential distribution of five host species associated with the transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) was modeled. Occurrence data were collected for each host species, and environmental variables were used to build the models. Climatic data from El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral episodes were used to compare the predicted distributions. Additionally, the potential distributions of four vector species were compared to identify overlaps with host species. Niche analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in vector niches across episodes and to identify host-vector pairs based on niche overlap in geographic and environmental spaces. After spatial thinning, 467 records were obtained, and 1,190 candidate models were evaluated for each species. Results showed the distribution of occurrences in the environmental space, highlighting a high risk of extrapolation beyond the calibration areas. Movement-Oriented Parity analysis revealed distinct distribution patterns under different climate conditions, with areas of environmental similarity identified. Bradypus variegatus exhibited a broad potential distribution, while Dasypus novemcinctus and Didelphis marsupialis had more restricted ranges. Sylvilagus braziliensis covered most of the Neotropics. Our study provides valuable insights into ecological niches and geographic ranges of these species, contributing to the understanding of cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.

Species catalogue of Drymaeus (Mesembrinus) Alberts, 1850 (Gastropoda: Bulimulidae) from Brazil and new data on morphology and distribution of Drymaeus (Mesembrinus) interpunctus (Martens, 1887).

Background: Herein, we attempted to obtain detailed data on the distribution of the species of Drymaeus (Mesembrinus) in Brazil, using biodiversity databases, malacological collections and literature as sources of occurrence records. We provided a catalogue of species, along with distribution maps. We also estimated the suitable distribution of Drymaeus (Mesembrinus) interpunctus using the maximum entropy approach. A detailed description of the anatomy of the soft parts of this species was provided, with new data on the pallial system. Materials and Methods: For each species we provided information on the compiled data associated with museum collections and the literature. Distribution maps including geographic boundaries, Brazilian biomes and altitude were made with QGIS software 3.16.10 Hannover. For niche modelling, nineteen bioclimatic variables and a topographic variable were used as predictors. The models were performed with MaxEnt version 3.3.3k. Results: Most of the species are represented by scarce material in malacological collections; for some species, these records correspond to type material, indicating that they have not been recollected. Most of the species were represented by shells making anatomical comparison and DNA analysis difficult, limiting our ability to provide new criteria for species delimitation. Our results allowed us to expand the known distribution area for three species, Drymaeus dutaillyi, D. gereti and D. oreades, with new occurrence records in Brazil. The MaxEnt model showed a thin area of high suitability to D. (M.) interpunctus in the Southeastern Brazil, corresponding to the Atlantic Forest. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter were the variables that most influenced the development of the model. Discussion: Drymaeus interpunctus was described based on specimens collected in Brazil without mention to the exact localities. Herein the new records from databases allowed to expand the known geographic distribution for this species and to infer its potential distribution. Although the type locality of D. interpunctus is in Brazil, the anatomy of the soft parts of specimens from this country was not previously described. The anatomy of the reproductive system of the specimens analyzed herein mostly corresponds to a previous description for specimens from Paraguay, except for the absence of penial sheath and the relative length of the bursa copulatrix duct. The results of niche modeling showed a thin area of high suitability for D. interpunctus and a vast area of moderate suitability, indicating that this species present a niche breadth that favors its occurrence in a range of different biomes, including less suitable areas. Conclusion: The small number of records obtained for most of the species and their restricted ranges associated with habitat destruction may indicate that they are of conservation concern.

Predicting geographic distribution and habitat suitability of Opuntia streptacantha in paleoclimatic, current, and future scenarios in Mexico.

Mexican territory is one of the centers of origin and dispersion of the genus Opuntia, where several of its species have been an important plant resource for people in arid and semiarid zones. Opuntia streptacantha is widely distributed in Mexico; however, precise aspects of its geographic distribution and ecological status are still unknown. Here, we modeled its potential distribution under paleoclimatic, current, and future conditions through maximum entropy and predictions from 824 records and seven environmental variables. Potential distribution of O. streptacantha in the interglacial period was contracted and slightly north than current distribution, with 44,773 km2 of optimal habitat. In other past periods, the central location of potential distribution coincides with the actual current distribution, but the period of the last glacial maximum was characterized by 201 km2 of very suitable habitat, absent in interglacial, current, and future periods. The future model suggests that potential distribution will move toward the south of the Mexican territory. Synthesis and applications. The potential distribution of O. streptacantha can be applied for the conservation and management of the species, and also in the selection of areas with crassicaule scrubs for protection, conservation, and reproduction of species resistant to the hostile conditions of arid and semiarid zones of Mexican territory, where the structure and composition of the vegetation will be affected in the next 100 years.

Patterns of Species Richness and Distribution of the Genus Laelia s.l. vs. Laelia s.s. (Laeliinae: Epidendroideae: Orchidaceae) in Mexico: Taxonomic Contribution and Conservation Implications.

Laelia is an endemic genus of the neotropical region, with the greatest richness occurring in Mexico. A recent phylogenetic study transferred some Mexican laelias to the genus Schomburgkia, which has generated debate. The aim of the present study was to analyze the patterns of species richness and endemism and the current and potential geographic distributions of the taxa of Laelia s.l., as well as the putative Laelia s.s., distributed in Mexico as part of an exploratory evaluation of the generic limits to sheds light on the taxonomic debate and generate baselines to guide conservation efforts. A database was generated with information from herbarium specimens and publications. The species richness was estimated by political division, biomes, and elevation. The endemism was analyzed by political division and using the weighted and corrected weighted endemism indices. Geographic data, climatic, and topographic variables were used to predict the distributions with the maximum entropy algorithm. The results supported the proposal to transfer some species to the genus Schomburgkia. Some areas of the Sierra Madre del Sur and Oriental should be included as priority areas in the conservation strategies of Laelia. This study highlights the importance of the taxonomy, distribution, and hotspots in diversity conservation.

Geographic distribution, conservation status and lectotypification of Pedersenia weberbaueri (Suess.) Holub (Amaranthaceae), an endemic and highly threatened shrub from the Marañón valley of Peru

The present study analyses the geographical distribution, conservation status, and nomenclature of Peruvian endemic Pedersenia weberbaueri. The species distribution was modelled using MaxEnt based on occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. The conservation status of the species was assessed against the categories and criteria of the IUCN Red List, and nomenclatural and typification issues were resolved. The potential distribution map of P. weberbaueri shows that the species is restricted to the seasonally dry tropical forests of the Marañón valley within a narrow latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational range. Consequently, we propose to categorise the species as Endangered (EN) and provide the necessary information for its inclusion in the IUCN Red List. Finally, we resolve nomenclatural issues and designate a lectotype. The results contribute to the biological knowledge of P. weberbaueri and support subsequent conservation management plans.

El presente estudio analiza la distribución geográfica, el estado de conservación y la nomenclatura de la endémica peruana Pedersenia weberbaueri. La distribución de especies se modeló usando MaxEnt con base en datos de ocurrencia y variables bioclimáticas. Se evaluó el estado de conservación de la especie frente a las categorías y criterios de la Lista Roja de la UICN y se resolvieron cuestiones de nomenclatura y tipificación. El mapa de distribución potencial de P. weberbaueri muestra que la especie está restringida a los bosques tropicales estacionalmente secos del valle del Marañón dentro de un estrecho rango latitudinal, longitudinal y altitudinal. En consecuencia, proponemos categorizar a la especie como En Peligro (EN) y brindar la información necesaria para su inclusión en la Lista Roja de la UICN. Finalmente, resolvemos cuestiones de nomenclatura y designamos un lectotipo. Los resultados contribuyen al conocimiento biológico de P. weberbaueri y respaldan los planes de manejo de conservación posteriores.

Suitable areas for invasive insect pests in Brazil and the potential impacts for eucalyptus forestry.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is among the world's largest producers of eucalyptus and the damage caused by native and invasive insect pests is one of the main factors affecting eucalyptus yield. The recent history of biological invasions of eucalyptus pests in Brazil prompts demand for phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions. This study used ecological niche models to estimate suitable areas for nine eucalyptus pests. This information was used to assess the potential ports of entry, generate invasion risk maps considering the likelihood of introducing invasive species, and estimate the eucalyptus producing municipalities and areas within the species' suitable range. RESULTS: A large distribution range was predicted for Eucalyptolyma maideni (Hempitera: Aphalaridae), Orgya postica (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), Sinoxylon anale (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), and Trachymela sloanei (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Brazil, while a comparatively smaller distribution was predicted for Ophelimus maskelli (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), Mnesampela privata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), Paropsis atomaria (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Paropsisterna beata, and P. cloelia (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). High-risk areas of invasion near airports and seaports were predicted mainly in southern, southeastern, and northeastern Brazil. A large proportion of the municipalities (24.4% to 93.7%) and areas with eucalyptus plantations (31.9% to 98.3%) are within the climatically suitable areas estimated for the pests, especially in southern and southeastern regions, which comprises 61.5% of the Brazilian eucalyptus production. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that eucalyptus forestry may be significantly impacted by biological invasion. The findings provided by our study can assist decision-makers in developing phytosanitary measures to prevent new invasions of forest pests in Brazil. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Thermal Niche for Seed Germination and Species Distribution Modelling of Swietenia macrophylla King (Mahogany) under Climate Change Scenarios.

Swietenia macrophylla is an economically important tree species propagated by seeds that lose their viability in a short time, making seed germination a key stage for the species recruitment. The objective of this study was to determine the cardinal temperatures and thermal time for seed germination of S. macrophylla; and its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at constant temperatures from 5 to 45 °C and their thermal responses modelled using a thermal time approach. In addition, the potential biogeographic distribution was projected according to the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Germination rate reached its maximum at 37.3 ± 1.3 °C (To); seed germination decreased to near zero at 52.7 ± 2.2 °C (ceiling temperature, Tc) and at 12.8 ± 2.4 °C (base temperature, Tb). The suboptimal thermal time θ150 needed for 50% germination was ca. 190 °Cd, which in the current scenario is accumulated in 20 days. The CCSM4 model estimates an increase of the potential distribution of the species of 12.3 to 18.3% compared to the current scenario. The temperature had an important effect on the physiological processes of the seeds. With the increase in temperature, the thermal needs for germination are completed in less time, so the species will not be affected in its distribution. Although the distribution of the species may not be affected, it is crucial to generate sustainable management strategies to ensure its long-term conservation.

Uses, abundance perception, and potential geographical distribution of Smilax aristolochiifolia Mill (SMILACACEAE) on the Totonacapan Region of Puebla, Mexico.

BACKGROUND: In some regions of Mexico, edible wild plants have been displaced or eliminated from the traditional food systems, mainly by changes in land use, booming monoculture, herbicide use, and by changes among the new generations in the traditional foods and diets of indigenous populations. In the Totonacapan region of Puebla, the gradual change from the traditional acahual plantation to coffee-type agroecosystems has provoked the displacement of old-growth forests and the eradication of wild plants since 1970. One of the wild species which has been used in traditional medicine and food recipes by the Totonac culture is Smilax aristolochiifolia (SMILACACEAE), known as "kgentsililh". This species forms part of traditional Totonac recipes, in which the tender stems are still used in local medicine to treat menstrual pain, deal with dysentery, and prevent hair loss. According to the Maxent® Program, there are still potential areas with habitats suitable to promote its conservation in the Poblano Totonacapan. METHODS: We conducted 260 interviews with people in 13 locations in the northern Sierra of the State of Puebla. Variables taken into account in the interview related to the consumption frequency of the species, its abundance and distribution perception, reasons or arguments given by the Totonac indigenous population about the decreased presence of specimens of S. aristolochiifolia, its dates of collection, and the cutting prices of kgentsililh at the community level and in local markets. The relative abundance of S. aristolochiifolia was determined through 22 samples in 2ts of 600 m2. Later, its potential distribution in the state of Puebla was estimated using the Maxent® Program Ver. 3.3.3. RESULTS: Of the 260 Totonac families interviewed, 31% had stopped consuming kgentsililh. The residents reported that in the last 50 years the populations of this plant had diminished in the northern Sierra of the State of Puebla, mainly due to changes in land use, herbicide application, over-collection, and urban growth. In traditional medicine, the stem sap of S. aristolochiifolia is currently employed to help treat baldness, and the "tuberous root" or plant rhizome is used to prepare a tea infusion to treat dysentery. The cost of plant guides varies from 10.00 to 40.00 Mexican pesos for one bunch (around 0.5 to 2.00 US dollars), and every bundle consists of between 7 to 10 cuttings from 0.4 to 0.5 m long. From our 22 quadrats of sampling and collection of S. aristolochiifolia, we were able to recognize a total of 32 specimens. There is a considerable abundance of kgentsililh in acahual plantations and old-growth forests (evergreen lowland and mid-elevation perennial forest) concerning the coffee-type plantations and milpas. According to our analysis using the Maxent Program®, eight physical and climatic variables have a direct relationship to the potential distribution of the species. CONCLUSIONS: Smilax aristolochiifolia is still a plant of socioeconomic importance, mainly because of its food value and its use in traditional medicine by indigenous families in Poblano Totonacapan. It is evident that the villagers perceive that in the last 50 years the species has decreased its population mainly due to land-use change, the application of herbicides to the different family production units, and climate change. At the moment, there is no knowledge about the methods of propagation of the species, and therefore there is no intention on the part of the population to conserve the species. However, it would be of great importance to generate a biocultural conservation strategy and take advantage of the results obtained from the potential geographic distribution area, since according to the Maxent® Program, there are still potential areas with habitat suitable to promote conservation in Poblano Totonacapan.

Potential distribution of Amblyomma mixtum (Koch, 1844) in climate change scenarios in the Americas.

Amblyomma mixtum is a Neotropical generalist tick of medical and veterinary importance which is widely distributed from United States of America to Ecuador. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in the geographic projections of the ecological niche models of A. mixtum in climate change scenarios in America. We constructed a database of published scientific publications, personal collections, personal communications, and online databases. Ecological niche modelling was performed with 15 Bioclimatic variables using kuenm in R and was projected to three time periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Current and 2050) for America. Our model indicated a wide distribution for A. mixtum, with higher probability of occurrence along the Gulf of Mexico and occurring in a lesser proportion in the Pacific states, Central America, and the northern part of South America. The areas of new invasion are located mainly on the border of Mexico with Guatemala and Belize, some regions of Central America and Colombia. We conclude that the ecological niche modelling are effective tools to infer the potential distribution of A. mixtum in America, in addition to helping to propose future measures of epidemiological control and surveillance in the new potential areas of invasion.

Edaphoclimatic seasonal trends and variations of the Salmonella spp. infection in Northwestern Mexico.

Currently, Salmonella spp. is the bacterium causing the highest number of food-borne diseases (FADs) in the world. It is primarily associated with contaminated water used to that irrigates crops from intensive livestock farming. However, literature emphasizes that the reservoirs for Salmonella spp. remain in wildlife and there are unconventional sources or secondary reservoirs, such as soil. Human soil-borne diseases have not been modeled in spatial scenarios, and therefore it is necessary to consider soil and other climatic factors to anticipate the emergence of new strains or serotypes with potential threat to public and animal health. The objective of this research was to investigate whether edaphic and climatic factors are associated with the occurrence and prevalence of Salmonella spp. in Northwestern Mexico. We estimated the potential distribution of Salmonella spp. with an interpolation method of unsampled kriging areas for 15 environmental variables, considering that these factors have a seasonal dynamic of change during the year and modifications in longer periods. Subsequently, a database was generated with human salmonellosis cases reported in the epidemiological bulletins of the National System of Epidemiological Surveillance (SIVE). For the Northwest region, there were 30,595 human cases of paratyphoid and other salmonellosis reported have been reported in Baja California state, 71,462 in Chihuahua, and 16,247 in Sonora from 2002 to 2019. The highest prevalence was identified in areas with higher temperatures between 35 and 37 °C, and precipitation greater than 1000 mm. The edaphic variables limited the prevalence and geographical distribution of Salmonella spp., because the region is characterized by presenting a low percentage of organic matter (≤4.3), and most of the territory is classified as aridic and xeric, which implies that the humidity comprises ≤ 180 days a year. Finally, the seasonal time series indicated that in the states of Baja California and Chihuahua the rainy quarter of the year is 18.7% and 17.01% above a typical quarter respectively, while for Sonora the warmest quarter is 23.3%. It is necessary to deepen the relationship between different soil characteristics and climate elements such as temperature and precipitation, which influence the distribution of different soil-transmitted diseases.

Unusual host selection in Amblycerus dispar larvae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Bruchinae) and its potential impact on stored almonds (Prunus dulcis).

We present the first report of Amblycerus dispar (Sharp) attacking stored almonds [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb] in Argentina. A summarized diagnosis, illustrations, and photographs of the adult and mature larva are provided to facilitate identification. We performed species distribution models for A. dispar and its main host plant Geoffroea decorticans (Gillies ex Hook. & Arn.) Burkart. We include A. dispar into a previous morphological character matrix and conduct a phylogenetic analysis to infer its phylogenetic position. The evolution of host plant associations of the genus Amblycerus is herein re-analyzed. A. dispar and its main host shows high suitability areas especially in central-west Argentina and Chile, whereas for the USA, high suitability areas were found for the south-western which include the area of almond production in this country. Although the presence of A. dispar in the USA region is very unlikely, we recommend some awareness as other bruchines are present in the area. Although A. dispar is unlikely to become an economically important risk, monitoring for early detection is recommended to avoid productivity loss, especially when the native host is nearby cultivated areas. A. dispar is hypothesized to be the sister species of A. schwarzi Kingsolver. The colonization of a Rosaceae species is a novelty for this genus, being host shifts known as an important factor affecting both natural and agricultural systems.

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) of Leptoglossus clypealis a new potential global invader: following in the footsteps of Leptoglossus occidentalis?

The introduction of alien species is one of the main problems in conservation. Many successful invaders cause severe economic and ecological damage. Such is the case of Leptoglossus occidentalis, a phytophagous true bug native to North America, which has become a pest in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America. Within the genus, another species whose distributional range is expanding toward the east of North America is Leptoglossus clypealis. As climate determines the successful establishment of insects, the identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive species based on ecological niche models (ENMs) offers an excellent opportunity for preventing invasions. In this study, ENMs were built for both species and their native climatic niches were compared. Their niche breath was also measured. The climatic niches of both species are identical and the niche breadth of L. clypealis is broader than that of L. occidentalis. In view of the great ecological resemblance between these two species, we believe that L. clypealis could became a major pest thus it should be carefully monitored. The results of the present worldwide ENMs showed numerous regions with suitable conditions for the establishment of both species. The future ENMs exhibited a retraction in the suitable areas in North America, Europe and Asia.

Áreas en riesgo de invasión por Procambarus clarkii (Decapoda: Cambaridae) un cangrejo de río introducido en Colombia / Areas at risk of invasion by Procambarus clarkii (Decapoda: Cambaridae) a crayfish introduced in Colombia

Introducción: El proceso de invasión biológica es una de las mayores amenazas a la biodiversidad y ecosistemas, con actuales y potenciales impactos en la salud pública y conservación. Procambarus clarkii es un crustáceo decápodo, originario del sur de Estados Unidos y noreste de México, que puede adaptarse a diferentes condiciones ambientales debido a su plasticidad ecológica. Objetivo: Se caracterizó el nicho ecológico fundamental existente de Procambarus clarkii con el fin de predecir las áreas con idoneidad ambiental para el potencial establecimiento de la especie en Suramérica y Colombia. Métodos: Usamos modelos de nichos ecológicos calibrados en el área nativa, elaborados con el algoritmo Maxent, basados en datos de presencia extraídos de GBIF y variables hidroclimáticas de ecosistemas acuáticos a una resolución de 1 km2. Resultados: En Suramérica el modelo indicó un potencial geográfico amplio de invasión mostrando áreas ambientalmente idóneas para la presencia y expansión hacia Colombia, Venezuela, Perú, Ecuador, Brasil, Guyana, Surinam, Bolivia, Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay y Chile. En Colombia, el modelo predijo que las áreas idóneas se ubican principalmente en el norte y oriente, incluidos diversos ecosistemas, como: bosques tropicales, bosques basales, bosques riparios y sabanas. La especie tiene una alta posibilidad de expandirse hacia áreas de distribución de latitudes bajas, ocupando zonas hacia la parte norte de la región Caribe colombiana, en departamentos de Magdalena, Cesar, Córdoba y Atlántico. También se predijo áreas con idoneidad ambiental en el oriente de Colombia, hacia la extensión de la planicie oriental de la Orinoquia, una región de baja altitud en: Arauca, Casanare, Meta y Vichada. Conclusión: En este estudio se aplican modelos de nichos ecológicos, que puede ser de interés en la planeación de estrategias o la creación de planes de manejo, como sistemas de alerta temprana para evitar el establecimiento de esta especie.

Introduction: Biological invasions are a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystems, with current and potential impacts on public health and conservation. Procambarus clarkii is a decapod crustacean, native to the Southern United States and Northeastern Mexico, which may adapt to different environmental conditions due to its ecological plasticity. Objective: The existing fundamental ecological niche of Procambarus clarkii was characterized in order to predict areas with environmental suitability for the potential establishment of the species in South America and Colombia. Methods: We used models of calibrated ecological niches in the native area, elaborated with the Maxent algorithm, based on occurrence data extracted from GBIF and hydroclimatic variables of aquatic ecosystems at a resolution of 1 km2. Results: The model indicated a wide geographic area for invasion potential in South America, predicting environmentally suitable areas for the presence and expansion towards Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Brazil, Guyana, Surinam, Bolivia, Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay and Chile. In Colombia, suitable areas predicted by the model are located mainly in the North and East of the country, spanning a diversity of ecosystems, such as tropical forests, basal forests, riparian forests and savannas. The species has a high possibility of expanding into low latitude distribution areas, occupying areas towards the Northern part of the Colombian Caribbean region, in the departments of Magdalena, Cesar, Cordoba and Atlántico. Suitability areas environmental were also predicted in Eastern Colombia, towards the extension of the Eastern plain of the Orinoquia, a low altitude region in Arauca, Casanare, Meta and Vichada. Conclusion: This study applies ecological niche models, which may be of interest in the planning of strategies or the creation of management plans, such as early warning systems that prevent the establishment of this species.

Supraspecific units in correlative niche modeling improves the prediction of geographic potential of biological invasions.

BACKGROUND: Biological invasions rank among the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. Correlative ecological niche modeling is among the most frequently used tools with which to estimate potential distributions of invasive species. However, when areas accessible to the species across its native distribution do not represent the full spectrum of environmental conditions that the species can tolerate, correlative studies often underestimate fundamental niches. METHODS: Here, we explore the utility of supraspecific modeling units to improve the predictive ability of models focused on biological invasions. Taking into account phylogenetic relationships in correlative ecological niche models, we studied the invasion patterns of three species (Aedes aegypti, Pterois volitans and Oreochromis mossambicus). RESULTS: Use of supraspecific modeling units improved the predictive ability of correlative niche models in anticipating potential distributions of three invasive species. We demonstrated that integrating data on closely related species allowed a more complete characterization of fundamental niches. This approach could be used to model species with invasive potential but that have not yet invaded new regions.

Ecological niche modelling of Gargaphia decoris (Heteroptera), a biological control agent of the invasive tree Solanum mauritianum (Solanales: Solanaceae).

BACKGROUND: The South American tree Solanum mauritianum Scopoli (Solanaceae) is a problematic invasive plant in numerous tropical, subtropical and temperate regions around the globe. Because conventional management approaches are not cost-effective, biological control provides an alternative approach. Gargaphia decoris Drake (Tingidae) is currently used as a biological control agent in South Africa and New Zealand. Considering the importance of climate in the establishment and success of a biological control agent, this study used ecological niche models (ENM) to identify areas where S. mauritianum is a problematic invader and where suitable conditions exist for G. decoris. Additionally, the climate niche dynamics of G. decoris were investigated and ENMs projected worldwide for the year 2050 were built. RESULTS: Our results indicate that most of the countries where S. mauritianum is problematic have suitable climatic conditions for G. decoris, and that the species can survive in climates with temperatures lower than those in its native range. For future climates, ENMs predict wider regions with favourable climatic conditions for G. decoris. CONCLUSION: Considering the results of this study, the prospects of using G. decoris as a biological control agent are good under current and future climates. Introduction of this agent could be considered in affected countries where it has not been released. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential invasion of the non-native millipede Oxidus gracilis (C. L. Koch, 1847) (Polydesmida: Paradoxosomatidae) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The millipede Oxidus gracilis (C. L. Koch, 1847) is a cosmopolitan introduced species largely recorded in the southeast region of Brazil. The species is considered an agricultural pest with records in poly- or monocultures, and its influence on native communities of plants and invertebrates is still unknown in Brazil. From this perspective, a maximum entropy model was used to explore the predicted distribution of O. gracilis in Brazil. The results showed a highly suitable area in Atlantic Forest (AUC = 0.949 ± 0.02). Considering percent contribution, annual mean temperature (= 54.9) was the main variable which has influenced the modeling. The potentially suitable areas recovered in Atlantic Forest suggest that attention should be given to its possible invasion and the potential damage of O. gracilis to natural communities.