Mixed-integer quadratic programming approach for noninvasive estimation of respiratory effort profile during pressure support ventilation.

Information about respiratory mechanics such as resistance, elastance, and muscular pressure is important to mitigate ventilator-induced lung injury. Particularly during pressure support ventilation, the available options to quantify breathing effort and calculate respiratory system mechanics are often invasive or complex. We herein propose a robust and flexible estimation of respiratory effort better than current methods. We developed a method for non-invasively estimating breathing effort using only flow and pressure signals. Mixed-integer quadratic programming (MIQP) was employed, and the binary variables were the switching moments of the respiratory effort waveform. Mathematical constraints, based on ventilation physiology, were set for some variables to restrict feasible solutions. Simulated and patient data were used to verify our method, and the results were compared to an established estimation methodology. Our algorithm successfully estimated the respiratory effort, resistance, and elastance of the respiratory system, resulting in more robust performance and faster solver times than a previously proposed algorithm that used quadratic programming (QP) techniques. In a numerical simulation benchmark, the worst-case errors for resistance and elastance were 25% and 23% for QP versus <0.1% and <0.1% for MIQP, whose solver times were 4.7 s and 0.5 s, respectively. This approach can estimate several breathing effort profiles and identify the respiratory system's mechanical properties in invasively ventilated critically ill patients.

A computational tool for trend analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic.

PURPOSE: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. METHODS: Mathematical functions are employed to describe the number of cases and demises in each region and to predict their final numbers, as well as the dates of maximum daily occurrences and the local stabilization date. The model parameters are calibrated using a computational methodology for numerical optimization. Trend analyses are run, allowing to assess the effects of public policies. Easy to interpret metrics over the quality of the fitted curves are provided. Country-wise data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) concerning the daily number of cases and demises around the world are used, as well as detailed data from Johns Hopkins University and from the Brasil.io project describing individually the occurrences in United States counties and in Brazilian states and cities, respectively. U. S. and Brazil were chosen for a more detailed analysis because they are the current focus of the pandemic. RESULTS: Illustrative results for different countries, U. S. counties and Brazilian states and cities are presented and discussed. CONCLUSION: The main contributions of this work lie in (i) a straightforward model of the curves to represent the data, which allows automation of the process without requiring interventions from experts; (ii) an innovative approach for trend analysis, whose results provide important information to support authorities in their decision-making process; and (iii) the developed computational tool, which is freely available and allows the user to quickly update the COVID-19 analyses and forecasts for any country, United States county or Brazilian state or city present in the periodic reports from the authorities.