Understanding Pediatric Surge in the United States.

The concepts of pediatric surge in the United States continue to evolve from a theoretic framework to practical implementation. As disasters become more frequent, ranging from natural to human-caused, children remain a vulnerable population. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the 2022 to 2023 tripledemic respiratory surge revealed advances and continued challenges in our ability to care for a large influx of pediatric patients. Understanding pediatric surge through the framework of the 4 S's (space, staff, stuff, and systems/structures) can identify gaps at multiple levels.

Assessment of coping capacity of public health facilities with health emergency situations during an event of flood in Mumbai.

BACKGROUND: Floods had been a repeated phenomenon in India, causing considerable losses to properties, life and infrastructure, and public utilities. Floods are found to be a common natural disaster occurring not only in developing countries but also in developed nations. Hospital preparedness against disaster could help in the management of the surge of patients in an effective manner. This study aims to assess the capacity of public health facilities for coping up with health emergency situations during an event of flood in Mumbai. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 38 public health facilities in Mumbai. A purposive sampling technique was used for the selection of the health facilities. Administrative staff, medical officers, and pharmacy in charges were included in the study. RESULTS: The study revealed that surge capacities in hospitals were adequate as they had additional beds for monsoon-related diseases for the preceding flood situation. There was a triage policy, and the staff were trained on the same. Procurement of drugs was easy because of a good networking system between hospitals. Due to this networking system, patients were also transferred to the nearest healthcare facility in a short span of time. CONCLUSION: The response during an event of a flood in the health facilities of Mumbai city was good as they have regular training sessions to be prepared for the emergency situations during monsoon as they have repeated exposure to floods.

Nationwide epidemiology and health resource use among children with COVID-19 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic posed substantial challenges to healthcare systems. Understanding the responses of pediatric health services is crucial for future pandemic planning and preparedness, yet such data remains limited. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data from administrative databases developed by Japan Medical Data Center and DeSC Healthcare Inc. The dataset comprised records of 2,612,511 children, totaling 60,224,888 person-months, from January 2020 to May 2022. Multivariate generalized estimation equations were used to examine the incidence rates of COVID-19 and associated health resource use. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that the incidence rates of COVID-19 gradually increased from Wave I (2.2 cases per 100,000 person-months) to Wave V (177.8cases per 100,000 person-months), with a notable elevation during Wave VI (2367.7 cases per 100,000 person-months). While nucleic acid amplification tests were primarily used during Waves I-V, the use of rapid antigen tests markedly increased in Wave VI. The hospitalization rates increased gradually from 0.2 in Wave I to 10.2 events per 100,000 person-months in Wave VI, and the case-hospitalization risk decreased from 14.9% in Wave II to 0.7% in Wave VI. Additionally, we observed decreasing trends in the use of antibiotics (Wave I, 31.8%; Wave VI, 9.0%), whereas antipyretic use rose from Wave I (56.1%) to Wave VI (86.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlighted essential changes in the nationwide pediatric healthcare system's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings provide valuable insights into the future pandemic planning and preparedness.

Design of a flow modulation device to facilitate individualized ventilation in a shared ventilator setup.

This study aims to resolve the unmet need for ventilator surge capacity by developing a prototype device that can alter patient-specific flow in a shared ventilator setup. The device is designed to deliver a predictable tidal volume (VT), requiring minimal additional monitoring and workload. The prototyped device was tested in an in vitro bench setup for its performance against the intended use and design criteria. The ventilation parameters: VT and airway pressures, and ventilation profiles: pressure, flow and volume were measured for different ventilator and device settings for a healthy and ARDS simulated lung pathology. We obtained VTs with a linear correlation with valve openings from 10 to 100% across set inspiratory pressures (IPs) of 20 to 30 cmH2O. Airway pressure varied with valve opening and lung elastance but did not exceed set IPs. Performance was consistent in both healthy and ARDS-simulated lung conditions. The ventilation profile diverged from traditional pressure-controlled profiles. We present the design a flow modulator to titrate VTs in a shared ventilator setup. Application of the flow modulator resulted in a characteristic flow profile that differs from pressure- or volume controlled ventilation. The development of the flow modulator enables further validation of the Individualized Shared Ventilation (ISV) technology with individualization of delivered VTs and the development of a clinical protocol facilitating its clinical use during a ventilator surge capacity problem.

Upskill training and preparedness of non-critical-care registered nurses deployed to intensive care units during the COVID-19 pandemic: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The increase in intensive care unit (ICU) capacity compelled by the COVID-19 pandemic required the rapid deployment of non-critical-care registered nurses to the ICU setting. The upskill training needed to prepare these registered nurses for deployment was rapidly assembled due to the limited timeframe associated with the escalating pandemic. Scoping the literature to identify the content, structure, and effectiveness of the upskill education provided is necessary to identify lessons learnt during the COVID-19 pandemic response so that they may guide workforce preparation for future surge planning. AIM: The aim of this scoping review was to map the literature to identify the available information regarding upskill training and preparedness of non-critical-care registered nurses deployed to the ICU during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This scoping review was conducted in accordance with JBI methodology. A protocol outlined the review questions and used the participants, concept, and context framework to define the inclusion and exclusion criteria. A search of healthcare databases MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), CINAHL (EBSCO), Cochrane, and Scopus was supplemented with a grey literature search via Google. RESULTS: Screening and review found 32 manuscripts that met the inclusion criterion for examination. Analysis revealed variation in duration of programs, theoretical versus practical content, face-to-face or online mode of delivery, and duration of preparation time at the bedside in the ICU setting. Data on contributors to preparedness for deployment were sparse but included training, support, peer education, buddy time, and clarity around responsibilities and communication. DISCUSSION: Evaluation of upskill education was mostly limited to post-training surveys. Few studies explored the preparedness of deployed registered nurses as an outcome of their upskill training or described measures of effectiveness of ICU deployment. CONCLUSION: There is limited evidence describing preparedness of non-critical-care registered nurses on deployment to the ICU. Further research is needed to identify what elements of upskill education led to preparedness and effective deployment to the ICU setting.

Emergency responses for a health workforce under pressure: Lessons learned from system responses to the first wave of the pandemic in Canada.

The global health workforce crisis, simmering for decades, was brought to a rolling boil by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. With scarce literature, evidence, or best practices to draw from, countries around the world moved to flex their workforces to meet acute challenges of the pandemic, facing demands related to patient volume, patient acuity, and worker vulnerability and absenteeism. One early hypothesis suggested that the acute, short-term pandemic phase would be followed by several waves of resource demands extending over the longer term. However, as the acute phase of the pandemic abated, temporary workforce policies expired and others were repealed with a view of returning to 'normal'. The workforce needs of subsequent phases of pandemic effects were largely ignored despite our new equilibrium resting nowhere near our pre-COVID baseline. In this paper, we describe Canada's early pandemic workforce response. We report the results of an environmental scan of the early workforce strategies adopted in Canada during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within an expanded three-part conceptual framework for supporting a sustainable health workforce, we describe 470 strategies and policies that aimed to increase the numbers and flexibility of health workers in Canada, and to maximise their continued availability to work. These strategies targeted all types of health workers and roles, enabling changes to the places health work is done, the way in which care is delivered, and the mechanisms by which it is regulated. Telehealth strategies and virtual care were the most prevalent, followed by role expansion, licensure flexibility, mental health supports for workers, and return to practice of retirees. We explore the degree to which these short-term, acute response strategies might be adapted or extended to support the evolving workforce's long-term needs.

Managing Surges in Demand: A Grounded Conceptual Framework of Surge Management Capability.

Surge management is important to hospital operations, yet surge literature has mostly focused on the addition of resources (e.g., 25% more beds) during events like pandemics. Such views are limiting, as meeting surge demands requires hospitals to engage in practices tailored to a surge's unique contingencies. We argue that a dynamic view of surge management should include surge management capability, which refers to how resources are deployed to respond to surge contingencies. To understand this capability, we qualitatively studied five hospital systems experiencing multiple surges due to COVID-19 between April 2020 and March 2022. We develop a framework showing that managing surges involves preserving capacity, expanding capacity, smoothing capacity demand, and enabling surge management. We contribute to surge literature by identifying practices hospitals can adopt to address surges and offering a better understanding of surge conditions (e.g., degree of novelty) that make some surge management practices more appropriate than others.

The Impact of Exposure to Previous Disasters on Hospital Disaster Surge Capacity Preparedness in Finland: Hospital disaster surge capacity preparedness.

OBJECTIVE: As disasters are rare and high-impact events, it is important that the learnings from disasters are maximized. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of exposure to a past disaster or mass casualty incident (MCI) on local hospital surge capacity planning. METHODS: The current hospital preparedness plans of hospitals receiving surgical emergency patients in Finland were collected (n = 28) and analyzed using the World Health Organization (WHO) hospital emergency checklist tool. The surge capacity score was compared between the hospitals that had been exposed to a disaster or MCI with those who had not. RESULTS: The overall median score of all key components on the WHO checklist was 76% (range 24%). The median surge capacity score was 65% (range 39%). There was no statistical difference between the surge capacity score of the hospitals with history of a disaster or MCI compared to those without (65% for both, P = 0.735). CONCLUSION: Exposure to a past disaster or MCI did not appear to be associated with an increased local hospital disaster surge capacity score. The study suggests that disaster planning should include structured post-action processes for enabling meaningful improvement after an experienced disaster or MCI.

Management and outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted in a newly created ICU and an expert ICU, a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic abruptly increased the inflow of patients requiring intensive care units (ICU). French health institutions responded by a twofold capacity increase with temporary upgraded beds, supplemental beds in pre-existing ICUs, or newly created units (New-ICU). We aimed to compare outcomes according to admission in expert pre-existing ICUs or in New-ICU. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective observational study was conducted in two 20-bed expert ICUs of a University Hospital (Expert-ICU) and in one 16-bed New-ICU in a private clinic managed respectively by 3 and 2 physicians during daytime and by one physician during the night shift. All consecutive adult patients with COVID-19-related acute hypoxemic respiratory failure admitted after centralized regional management by a dedicated crisis cell were included. The primary outcome was 180-day mortality. Propensity score matching and restricted cubic spline for predicted mortality over time were performed. RESULTS: During the study period, 165 and 176 patients were enrolled in Expert-ICU and New-ICU respectively, 162 (98%) and 157 (89%) patients were analyzed. The unadjusted 180-day mortality was 30.8% in Expert-ICU and 28.7% in New-ICU, (log-rank test, p = 0.7). After propensity score matching, 123 pairs (76 and 78%) of patients were matched, with no significant difference in mortality (32% vs. 32%, OR 1.00 [0.89; 1.12], p = 1). Adjusted predicted mortality decreased over time (p < 0.01) in both Expert-ICU and New-ICU. CONCLUSIONS: In COVID-19 patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, hospitalization in a new ICU was not associated with mortality at day 180.

Transformation from zero tolerance to living with COVID-19 in New Taipei City, Taiwan. Experience of the FEMH "home-hotel-hospital" care model.

In March 2022, local cases of COVID-19 infections of the Omicron variant were identified in Taiwan. In response to impending community transmission, the "Home-Hotel-Hospital" (3H) care model was implemented by the Far Eastern Memorial Hospital (FEMH). It established the first remote home care center in Taiwan and two quarantine centers in two hotels. The hospital focused on care for critical COVID-19 patients, community screening, and telehealth care. The home care call center evaluated and triaged up to 104,244 cases and provided remote home care for 96,894 cases within the first three months; in 2022, it provided home care to 107,095 patients. The two quarantine hotels admitted a total of 1834 individuals. A total of 3796 COVID-19 patients were admitted to the hospital-367 in intensive care. The telehealth outpatient clinic-including the online video clinic-served 25,775 cases; 21.5% (n = 5544) of them were prescribed oral anti-viral medications. In 2022, the FEMH prescribed oral anti-viral therapies to a total of 12,571 cases. The FEMH 3H care model not only enabled non-critical patients to recover at home, but also provided severely ill patients access to timely in-hospital care. In the future, this model will continue to play a significant role in COVID-19 management.

Impact of Surge Strain and Pandemic Progression on Prognostication by an Established COVID-19-Specific Severity Score.

IMPORTANCE: Many U.S. State crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines incorporated Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), a sepsis-related severity score, in pandemic triage algorithms. However, SOFA performed poorly in COVID-19. Although disease-specific scores may perform better, their prognostic utility over time and in overcrowded care settings remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated prognostication by the modified 4C (m4C) score, a COVID-19-specific prognosticator that demonstrated good predictive capacity early in the pandemic, as a potential tool to standardize triage across time and hospital-surge environments. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Two hundred eighty-one U.S. hospitals in an administrative healthcare dataset. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 298,379 hospitalized adults with COVID-19 were identified from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022. m4C scores were calculated from admission diagnosis codes, vital signs, and laboratory values. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hospital-surge index, a severity-weighted measure of COVID-19 caseload, was calculated for each hospital-month. Discrimination of in-hospital mortality by m4C and surge index-adjusted models was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Calibration was assessed by training models on early pandemic waves and measuring fit (deviation from bisector) in subsequent waves. RESULTS: From March 2020 to January 2022, 298,379 adults with COVID-19 were admitted across 281 U.S. hospitals. m4C adequately discriminated mortality in wave 1 (AUC 0.779 [95% CI, 0.769-0.789]); discrimination was lower in subsequent waves (wave 2: 0.772 [95% CI, 0.765-0.779]; wave 3: 0.746 [95% CI, 0.743-0.750]; delta: 0.707 [95% CI, 0.702-0.712]; omicron: 0.729 [95% CI, 0.721-0.738]). m4C demonstrated reduced calibration in contemporaneous waves that persisted despite periodic recalibration. Performance characteristics were similar with and without adjustment for surge. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality prediction by the m4C score remained robust to surge strain, making it attractive for when triage is most needed. However, score performance has deteriorated in recent waves. CSC guidelines relying on defined prognosticators, especially for dynamic disease processes like COVID-19, warrant frequent reappraisal to ensure appropriate resource allocation.

Addressing the Knowledge Deficit in Hospital Bed Planning and Defining an Optimum Region for the Number of Different Types of Hospital Beds in an Effective Health Care System.

Based upon 30-years of research by the author, a new approach to hospital bed planning and international benchmarking is proposed. The number of hospital beds per 1000 people is commonly used to compare international bed numbers. This method is flawed because it does not consider population age structure or the effect of nearness-to-death on hospital utilization. Deaths are also serving as a proxy for wider bed demand arising from undetected outbreaks of 3000 species of human pathogens. To remedy this problem, a new approach to bed modeling has been developed that plots beds per 1000 deaths against deaths per 1000 population. Lines of equivalence can be drawn on the plot to delineate countries with a higher or lower bed supply. This method is extended to attempt to define the optimum region for bed supply in an effective health care system. England is used as an example of a health system descending into operational chaos due to too few beds and manpower. The former Soviet bloc countries represent a health system overly dependent on hospital beds. Several countries also show evidence of overutilization of hospital beds. The new method is used to define a potential range for bed supply and manpower where the most effective health systems currently reside. The method is applied to total curative beds, medical beds, psychiatric beds, critical care, geriatric care, etc., and can also be used to compare different types of healthcare staff, i.e., nurses, physicians, and surgeons. Issues surrounding the optimum hospital size and the optimum average occupancy will also be discussed. The role of poor policy in the English NHS is used to show how the NHS has been led into a bed crisis. The method is also extended beyond international benchmarking to illustrate how it can be applied at a local or regional level in the process of long-term bed planning. Issues regarding the volatility in hospital admissions are also addressed to explain the need for surge capacity and why an adequate average bed occupancy margin is required for an optimally functioning hospital.

Lessons from health insurance responses in counteracting COVID-19: a qualitative comparative analysis of South Korea and three influential countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused delays and restrictions in providing medical services. In response to the medical surge, countries with social insurance systems provided financial incentives to medical institutions. This study aimed to present the directions for health insurance support by comparing countries in terms of the domains and contents of COVID-19 health insurance support to ensure timely support in case of future pandemics. METHODS: An analysis framework was developed to compare health insurance policy interventions for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 domains, and detailed policy interventions were divided into sub-domains (space, staff, and stuff) for each domain. Data were collected by country from the websites of the Ministry of Health and Social Insurers, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies and were analyzed using qualitative comparative analysis. RESULTS: The countries provided comprehensive support for both the COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 domains. In the COVID-19 domain, overall support was provided in all three sub-domains. Additional cost support was provided to prevent infection and provide secure facilities to treat confirmed patients. Outpatient services were mainly supported, and an intensive intervention was developed in the staff sub-domain for the non-COVID-19 domain. The point of policy intervention was the surge of the first confirmed case. Continuous revisions were subsequently made. The government provided financial support through health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: Regarding where policy support through health insurance should be focused, the workload of medical personnel increased according to the change in the service provision environment due to the pandemic, and the medical service delivery system changed to prevent further infection. Consequently, incentives should be provided to aid the provision of stable services to patients and should be an auxiliary means to implement the national quarantine policy more effectively via a health insurance response system that promptly provides additional financial support in case of future crises.

Determining surgical surge capacity with a hybrid simulation exercise.

Background: To help test and improve surgical surge capacity, mass casualty incident (MCI) exercises generate valuable information. Both large scale table-top exercises (TTX) and full-scale exercises (FSX) have limitations if you want to test an organisation's capability and structure. A hybrid exercise incorporating the advantages of TTX and FSX is a possible way forward, but is no standardised exercise method, yet. This study aims at evaluating the exercise results to determine the feasibility of a hybrid TTX/FSX exercise for an organization's capability and structure. Methods: A hybrid MCI simulation using moulaged figurants and simulation cards was designed, where the emergency department of a level 1 trauma centre receives 103 casualties over 4 h. After registration and triage, all casualties are expected to be resuscitated in real time and are transferred for further treatment inside the hospital (radiology, operating theatres, intensive care unit (ICU)/postop and wards). When reaching operation theatre, ICU or ward, figurants are replaced by simulation cards. Observers ensured that those procedures performed were adequate and adhered to realistic times. Use of resources (materials, drugs etc.) were registered. Primary endpoint was average time spent in the emergency department, from time of arrival, to transfer out. Secondary endpoints were related to patient flow and avoidable fatalities. Results: The hospital managed to deal with the flow of patients without collapse of existing systems. Operating theatres as well as ICU and ward beds were available at the end of the exercise. Several details in the hospital response were observed that had not been noticed during previous TTX. Conclusion: FSX have a valuable role in training, equipping, exercising, and evaluating MCI management. Hybrid simulations combining both FSX and TTX may optimise resource utilisation and allow more frequent exercises with similar organisational benefit.

Hospital surge capacity preparedness in disasters and emergencies: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Adequate and effective emergency preparedness for hospital surge capacity is a prerequisite to ensuring standard healthcare services for disaster victims. This study aimed to identify, review, and synthesize the preparedness activities for and the barriers to hospital surge capacity in disasters and emergencies. METHODS: We systematically searched seven databases (PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Scopus, Embase, Ovid, and PsycINFO). We included all English peer-reviewed studies published in January 2016 and July 2022 on surge capacity preparedness in hospital settings. Two independent researchers screened titles and abstracts, reviewed the full texts, and conducted data extractions using CADIMA software. We assessed the rigor of the included studies using the NIH quality assessment tools for quantitative studies, the Noyes et al. guidelines for qualitative studies, and the MMAT tool for mixed methods studies and summarized findings using the narrative synthesis method. We also used PRISMA reporting guidelines. RESULTS: From the 2560 studies identified, we finally include 13 peer-reviewed studies: 10 quantitative, one qualitative, and two mixed methods. Five studies were done in the USA, three in Iran (n = 3), and the remaining in Australia, Pakistan, Sweden, Taiwan, and Tanzania. The study identified various ways to increase hospital surge capacity preparedness in all four domains (staff, stuff, space, and system); among them, the use of the Hospital Medical Surge Preparedness Index and the Surge Simulation Tool for surge planning was noteworthy. Moreover, nine studies (69%) recognized several barriers to hospital surge capacity preparedness. CONCLUSION: The review provides synthesized evidence of contemporary literature on strategies for and barriers to hospital surge capacity preparedness. Despite the risk of selection bias due to the omission of gray literature, the study findings could help hospital authorities, public health workers, and policymakers to develop effective plans and programs for improving hospital surge capacity preparedness with actions, such as enhancing coordination, new or adapted flows of patients, disaster planning implementation, or the development of specific tools for surge capacity. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022360332.

Thirty years of ANZICS CORE: A clinical quality success story.

In 2023, the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Registry run by the Centre for Outcomes and Resources Evaluation (CORE) turns 30 years old. It began with the Adult Patient Database, the Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Intensive Care Registry, and the Critical Care Resources Registry, and it now includes Central Line Associated Bloodstream Infections Registry, the Extra-Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation Database, and the Critical Health Resources Information System. The ANZICS Registry provides comparative case-mix reports, risk-adjusted clinical outcomes, process measures, and quality of care indicators to over 200 intensive care units describing more than 200 000 adult and paediatric admissions annually. The ANZICS CORE outlier management program has been a major contributor to the improved patient outcomes and provided significant cost savings to the healthcare sector. Over 200 peer-reviewed papers have been published using ANZICS Registry data. The ANZICS Registry was a vital source of information during the COVID-19 pandemic. Upcoming developments include reporting of long-term survival and patient-reported outcome and experience measures.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 and Medical Evacuation in Lombardy: Lessons Learned from an Unprecedented Pandemic.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerging infectious disease pandemic developed in Lombardy (northern Italy) during the last week of February 2020 with a progressive increase of patients presenting with serious clinical findings. Despite the efforts of the Central Italian Government, regional resources were rapidly at capacity. The solution was to plan the medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) of 119 critically ill patients (median age 61 years) to in-patient intensive care units in other Italian regions (77) and Germany (42). Once surviving patients were deemed suitable, the repatriation process concluded the assignment. The aim of this report is to underline the importance of a rapid organization and coordination process between different nodes of an effective national and international network during an emerging infectious disease outbreak and draw lessons learned from similar published reports.

A Multisite Investigation of Areas for Improvement in COVID-19 Surge Capacity Management.

The congressionally authorized National Disaster Medical System Pilot Program was created in December 2019 to strengthen the medical surge capability, capacity, and interoperability of affiliated healthcare facilities in 5 regions across the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic provided an unprecedented opportunity to learn how participating healthcare facilities handled medical surge events during an active public health emergency. We applied a modified version of the Barbisch and Koenig 4-S framework (staff, stuff, space, systems) to analyze COVID-19 surge management practices implemented by healthcare stakeholders at 5 pilot sites. In total, 32 notable practices were identified to increase surge capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic that have potential applications for other healthcare facilities. We found that systems was the most prevalent domain of surge capacity among the identified practices. Systems and staff were discussed across all 5 pilot sites and were the 2 domains co-occurring most often within each surge management practice. These results can inform strategies for scaling up and optimizing medical surge capability, capacity, and interoperability of healthcare facilities nationwide. This study also specifies areas of surge capacity worthy of strategic focus in the pilot's planning and implementation efforts while more broadly informing the US healthcare system's response to future large-scale, medical surge events.

Large-scale real-life implementation of technology-enabled care to maximize hospitals' medical surge preparedness during future infectious disease outbreaks and winter seasons: a viewpoint.

Hospitals can be overburdened with large numbers of patients with severe infectious conditions during infectious disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks or epidemics put tremendous pressure on the admission capacity of care facilities in the concerned region, negatively affecting the elective program within these facilities. Such situations have been observed during the recent waves of the coronavirus disease pandemic. Owing to the imminent threat of a "tripledemic" by new variants of the coronavirus disease (such as the new Omicron XBB.1.16 strain), influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus during future winter seasons, healthcare agencies should take decisive steps to safeguard hospitals' surge capacity while continuing to provide optimal and safe care to a potentially large number of patients in their trusted home environment. Preparedness of health systems for infectious diseases will require dynamic interaction between a continuous assessment of region-wide available hospital capacity and programs for intensive home treatment of patients who can spread the disease. In this viewpoint, we describe an innovative, dynamic coupling system between hospital surge capacity and cascading activation of a nationwide system for remote patient monitoring. This approach was developed using the multi-criteria decision analysis methodology, considering previously published real-life experiences on remote patient monitoring.