Hospital case fatality and mortality related to Chagas disease in Brazil over two decades.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse hospital case fatality and mortality related to Chagas disease (CD) in Brazil, 2000-2019. METHOD: This is a mixed ecological study with spatial and temporal trends, based on national population data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health - hospital admissions (HA) and death certificates (DC). Records with CD as a primary or secondary cause of death in HA and/or as an underlying or associated cause of death in DC were evaluated. Temporal trends were analysed by Joinpoint regression and the spatial distribution of age- and gender-adjusted rates, spatial moving averages, and standardized morbidity ratios. RESULTS: There were a total of 4,376 HA due to CD resulting in death in Brazil, with a hospital case fatality rate of 0.11/100,000 inhabitants. The Southeast region had the highest rate (63.9%, n = 2,796; 0.17/100,000 inhabitants). The general trend for this indicator in Brazil is upwards (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 7.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3 to 9.9), with increases in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. During the same period 122,275 deaths from CD were registered in DC, with a mortality rate of 3.14/100,000 inhabitants. The highest risk of CD-related death was found among men (relative risk [RR] 1.27) and Afro-Brazilians (RR 1.63). There was a downward trend in CD mortality in the country (AAPC - 0.7%, 95%CI -0.9 to -0.5), with an increase in the Northeast region (AAPC 1.1%, 95%CI 0.6 to 1.6). Municipalities with a very high Brazilian Deprivation Index tended to show an increase in mortality (AAPC 2.1%, 95%CI 1.6 to 2.7), while the others showed a decrease. CONCLUSION: Hospital case fatality and mortality due to CD are a relevant public health problem in Brazil. Differences related to gender, ethnicity, and social vulnerability reinforce the need for comprehensive care, and to ensure equity in access to health in the country. Municipalities, states, and regions with indicators that reveal higher morbidity and mortality need to be prioritized.

Mortality due to visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil by municipalities, 2001-2018: a spatial-temporal analysis of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study.

OBJECTIVES: In the American regions, Brazil accounts for 97% of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases, with a case fatality rate of approximately 10%. This study aimed to investigate the VL mortality distribution in Brazil and identify high-priority and high-risk areas for intervention strategies. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological study that analysed the spatial-temporal patterns of VL mortality in Brazilian municipalities. METHODS: Age-standardised VL mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease study from 2001 to 2018 were used. The distribution of mortality in the municipalities was assessed, and subsequently the Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) analysis was conducted to identify contiguous areas with high mortality rates. Scan analysis identified clusters of high spatial-temporal risks. RESULTS: The highest mortality rates and clusters were in municipalities located in the Northeast region and in the states of Tocantins and Roraima (North region), Mato Grosso do Sul (Central-West region), and Minas Gerais (Southeast region). According to LISA, there was an increase in the number of municipalities classified as high priority from the first 3-year period (n = 434) to the last 3-year period (n = 644). The spatio-temporal analysis identified 21 high-risk clusters for VL mortality. CONCLUSION: Areas with a high risk of VL mortality should prioritise preventing transmission, invest in early diagnosis and treatment, and promote the training of healthcare professionals.

Effect of Initial Inoculum on the Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Wheat Blast Under Field Conditions in Bolivia.

Epidemiological studies to better understand wheat blast (WB) spatial and temporal patterns were conducted in three field environments in Bolivia between 2019 and 2020. The temporal dynamics of wheat leaf blast (WLB) and spike blast (WSB) were best described by the logistic model compared with the Gompertz and exponential models. The nonlinear logistic infection rates were higher under defined inoculation in experiments two and three than under undefined inoculation in experiment one, and they were also higher for WSB than for WLB. The onset of WLB began with a spatial clustering pattern according to autocorrelation analysis and Moran's index values, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation until the last sampling time. The WSB onset did not start with a spatial clustering pattern; instead, it was detected later until the last sampling date across experiments, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation. Maximum severity (Kmax) was 1.0 for WSB and less than 1.0 for WLB. Aggregation of WLB and WSB was higher for defined than for undefined inoculation. The directionality of hotspot development was similar for both WLB and WSB, mainly occurring concentrically for defined inoculation. Our results show no evidence of synchronized development but suggest a temporal and spatial progression of disease symptoms on wheat leaves and spikes. Thus, we recommend that monitoring and management of WB should be considered during early growth stages of wheat planted in areas of high risk.

Secular trends and sociodemographic, biological, and behavioural factors associated with handgrip strength in adolescents in southern Brazil: An allometric approach.

The purpose of this study was to analyse secular trend in handgrip strength (HGS) in adolescents using an allometric approach and identify the factors associated. The sample comprised 657 and 1004 adolescents (14 to 19 years) in 2007 and 2017/2018, respectively, of public schools in Florianópolis, Brazil. The dependent variable was HGS normalised to body mass and height. Covariance analysis was used to examine secular trends in HGS, and multiple linear regression was used to identify associated factors. The independent variables were sociodemographic, biological, and behavioural factors. Comparison of HGS between surveys indicated a negative secular trend in both sexes (p < 0.001). In boys, there was a positive association of HGS with age and FFM in both surveys. In 2017/18, there was a positive association with sexual maturation and a negative association with sitting time and fat percentage. In girls, FFM was positively associated with HGS in both surveys. In 2007, there were positive associations of HGS with age and vigorous physical activity, whereas, in 2017/18, negative associations were observed with economic level and sitting time. The findings of the present study show a decline in adolescent HGS. And behavioural changes appear to be contributing to declines in HGS.

Exploring Dengue Dynamics: A Multi-Scale Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Trends in Ibagué, Colombia.

Our study examines how dengue fever incidence is associated with spatial (demographic and socioeconomic) alongside temporal (environmental) factors at multiple scales in the city of Ibagué, located in the Andean region of Colombia. We used the dengue incidence in Ibagué from 2013 to 2018 to examine the associations with climate, socioeconomic, and demographic factors from the national census and satellite imagery at four levels of local spatial aggregation. We used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify the relevant socioeconomic and demographic predictors, and we then integrated them with environmental variables into hierarchical models using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to analyze the spatio-temporal interactions. Our findings show a significant effect of spatial variables across the different levels of aggregation, including human population density, gas and sewage connection, percentage of woman and children, and percentage of population with a higher education degree. Lagged temporal variables displayed consistent patterns across all levels of spatial aggregation, with higher temperatures and lower precipitation at short lags showing an increase in the relative risk (RR). A comparative evaluation of the models at different levels of aggregation revealed that, while higher aggregation levels often yield a better overall model fit, finer levels offer more detailed insights into the localized impacts of socioeconomic and demographic variables on dengue incidence. Our results underscore the importance of considering macro and micro-level factors in epidemiological modeling, and they highlight the potential for targeted public health interventions based on localized risk factor analyses. Notably, the intermediate levels emerged as the most informative, thereby balancing spatial heterogeneity and case distribution density, as well as providing a robust framework for understanding the spatial determinants of dengue.

Geographical coverage of SARS-CoV-2 screening and care centers in Haiti: what do national surveillance data tell us?

BACKGROUND: In Haiti, reported incidence and mortality rates for COVID-19 were lower than expected. We aimed to analyze factors at communal and individual level that might lead to an underestimation of the true burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in Haiti during its first two years. METHODS: We analyzed national COVID-19 surveillance data from March 2020 to December 2021, to describe the epidemic using cluster detection, time series, and cartographic approach. We performed multivariate Quasi-Poisson regression models to determine socioeconomic factors associated with incidence and mortality. We performed a mixed-effect logistic regression model to determine individual factors associated with the infection. RESULTS: Among the 140 communes of Haiti, 57 (40.7%) had a COVID-19 screening center, and the incidence was six times higher in these than in those without. Only 22 (15.7%) communes had a COVID-19 care center, and the mortality was five times higher in these than in those without. All the richest communes had a COVID-19 screening center while only 30.8% of the poorest had one. And 75% of the richest communes had a COVID-19 care center while only 15.4% of the poorest had one. Having more than three healthcare workers per 1000 population in the commune was positively associated with the incidence (SIR: 3.31; IC95%: 2.50, 3.93) and the mortality (SMR: 2.73; IC95%: 2.03, 3.66). At the individual level, male gender (adjusted OR: 1.11; IC95%: 1.01, 1.22), age with a progressive increase of the risk compared to youngers, and having Haitian nationality only (adjusted OR:2.07; IC95%: 1.53, 2.82) were associated with the infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the weakness of SARS-CoV-2 screening and care system in Haiti, particularly in the poorest communes, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths were probably greatly underestimated.

SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in a Small-Sized Municipality in Ceará State, Brazil: Temporal and Spatial Evolution.

Data on the temporal and spatial evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and local control measures and their effects on morbidity and mortality patterns in rural Brazil are scarce. We analyzed the data from case notification systems, epidemiological investigation reports, and municipal decrees in Itapajé, a small municipality in Ceará State in northeast Brazil. For spatial and spatio-temporal analyses, cases and deaths were mapped. There were a total of 3020 cases of COVID-19, recorded between April 2020 and December 2021; 135 (4.5%) died. The cumulative incidence and mortality rates were 5650.3 cases and 252.6 deaths per 100,000 people, respectively. The index case of SARS-CoV-2 in Itapajé was diagnosed in March 2020. The first peak of cases and deaths occurred in May 2020. The second wave peaked in May 2021, with the highest number of deaths in March 2021. According to the spatial analysis, the highest density of cases and deaths occurred in the central urban areas. In these areas, there were also the clusters of highest risk according to the spatio-temporal analyses. The municipal government issued 69 decrees on restriction measures, surveillance, and the maintenance of social isolation as a response to the pandemic. The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Itapajé mirrored the dynamics in large metropolitan regions, going from central neighborhoods of low socio-economic status to the wealthier peripheries.

[Space-time heterogeneity of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination indicators in children from BrazilHeterogeneidad espaciotemporal de los indicadores de inmunización con la vacuna triple viral en la población infantil de Brasil]. / Heterogeneidade espaço-temporal dos indicadores de imunização da vacina tríplice viral em crianças no Brasil.

Objective: To evaluate immunization coverage and dropout rates of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine across Brazilian regions. Methods: This ecological study employing a space-time approach used data from the National Immunization Program (PNI) and the Live Births Information System (SINASC). We estimated the annual variation (2014 to 2021) in immunization coverage and dropout rate of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine in children aged 12 and 15 months in the 5 570 Brazilian municipalities. Statistical analysis was conducted for the municipalities contained in each Brazilian region using the space-time scan technique, considering the Poisson probabilistic model and the hypothesis that municipalities with lower immunization coverage or high dropout rates would form space-time clusters. Results: From 2014 to 2021, 38.3% and 12.9% of municipalities achieved a coverage ≥ 95.0% in the first and second doses respectively; 53.6% of municipalities had a high dropout rate (20.0% to 49.9%) and 37.2% had a very high dropout rate. The Northeast region had primary clusters for low coverage of the first (2018 to 2021) and second vaccine doses (2020 to 2021) with higher relative risks (RR) compared to other primary clusters. The RR for high dropout rate was elevated in all Brazilian regions (1.57 to 26.23). Conclusions: In some Brazilian regions, the dropout rate has been high since 2014, signaling a risk of measles resurgence. In turn, space-time analysis indicated lower vaccination coverage in 2020, suggesting the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objetivo: Evaluar la cobertura de vacunación y las tasas de incumplimiento del esquema de vacunación triple viral en las macrorregiones de Brasil. Métodos: En este estudio ecológico, con un enfoque espaciotemporal, se utilizaron datos del Programa Nacional de Inmunización y del Sistema de Información sobre Recién Nacidos Vivos. Se estimó la variación anual de la cobertura de vacunación y la tasa de incumplimiento del esquema de vacunación triple viral en niños de 12 y 15 meses en 5570 municipios brasileños (en el período 2014-2021). El análisis estadístico se realizó en el conjunto de municipios de cada macrorregión brasileña mediante la técnica de barrido espaciotemporal, con un modelo probabilístico de Poisson y con la hipótesis de que los municipios con menor cobertura de vacunación o tasas altas de incumplimiento formarían conglomerados espaciotemporales. Resultados: En el período 2014-2021, el 38,3% y el 12,9% de los municipios alcanzó una cobertura ≥95,0% para la primera y la segunda dosis de la vacuna triple viral, respectivamente; el 53,6% de los municipios tuvo una tasa de incumplimiento alta (del 20,0% al 49,9%) y el 37,2% una tasa extremadamente alta. En la zona del nordeste se observaron los conglomerados primarios de cobertura baja de la primera y la segunda dosis de la vacuna triple viral (administradas en los períodos 2018-2021 y 2020-2021, respectivamente) con un mayor riesgo relativo (RR), en comparación con los demás conglomerados primarios. Se observó un RR alto de tener una tasa elevada de incumplimiento en todas las macrorregiones de Brasil (de entre 1,57 y 26,23). Conclusiones: En algunas macrorregiones, la tasa de incumplimiento había sido elevada desde el 2014, lo cual indica un riesgo de resurgimiento del sarampión. A su vez, en el análisis espaciotemporal se observó una menor cobertura de vacunación en el 2020, lo que denota la influencia de la pandemia de COVID-19.

Socio-environmental factors contributing to the high incidence of COVID-19 in a border city in northern Uruguay / Factores socioambientales que contribuyen a alta incidencia de COVID-19 en ciudad fronteriza del norte de Uruguay / Fatores socioambientais que contribuem para alta incidência de COVID-19 em cidade fronteiriça no norte do Uruguai

Background and Objectives: the present study was conducted in the city of Rivera, situated in northern Uruguay on the border with Brazil. The disease initially progressed slowly in 2020, with subsequent outbreaks followed by a rapid increase in incidence. The objective was to explore the relationship between the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in a binational city and variables such as socioeconomic status, population density, and mobility patterns, with the aim of informing public policies. Methods: an exploratory study was conducted between August 2020 and January 2021 using data obtained from the Ministry of Health. The explanatory variables considered included population density, socioeconomic level, and mobility. Three distinct periods from 2020 to 2021 were identified. Spatial autocorrelation was analyzed using Moran's Index and the Gi* statistic (Getis & Ord). Hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to identify homogeneous groups of census segments. Results: a total of 1,846 cases were georeferenced. Through hierarchical cluster analysis, seven homogeneous groups were identified. Mobility was found to explain the incidence of cases among the high socioeconomic level group, while population density accounted for the differences observed in the low socioeconomic group. Conclusion: in this city, priority should be given to populations residing in areas with higher population density and greater mobility. This small-scale territorial analysis provides valuable information for developing localized policies aimed at addressing health crises.(AU)

Justificación y Objetivos: el estudio se realizó en la ciudad de Rivera, situada en el norte del país en la frontera con Brasil. La enfermedad progresó lentamente durante 2020, con brotes posteriores seguidos de un rápido aumento de la incidencia. El objetivo fue explorar la relación entre la distribución espacial de los casos de COVID-19 en una ciudad binacional y variables como nivel socioeconómico, densidad poblacional y patrones de movilidad, con el objetivo de informar políticas públicas. Métodos: se realizó un estudio exploratorio entre agosto 2020 y enero 2021 con datos del Ministerio de Salud, considerando semanas epidemiológicas. Las variables explicativas consideradas fueron densidad poblacional, nivel socioeconómico y movilidad. Se identificaron tres periodos temporales desde agosto 2020 hasta enero 2021. Se analizo la autocorrelación espacial empleando el Índice de Moran y estadística Gi* (Getis & Ord). Mediante el análisis de cluster jerárquico, fue posible identificar grupos homogéneos de segmentos censales. Resultados: se georreferenciaron un total de 1.846 casos. Mediante análisis de cluster jerárquico, se identificaron siete grupos homogéneos. Para el nivel alto socioeconómico, la movilidad es el factor explicativo de una mayor incidencia de casos. Mientras que, para para el grupo de nivel bajo, la densidad de la población fue el factor explicativo de las diferencias en la presentación de la enfermedad. Conclusión: la población a ser priorizada en esta ciudad corresponde a aquellas zonas con mayor densidad poblacional y donde se incrementa la movilidad. El análisis territorial a pequeña escala genera información para la construcción de política local, ante una crisis sanitaria, que la hace más eficaz.(AU)

Justificativa e Objetivos: o presente estudo foi realizado na cidade de Rivera, localizada no norte do Uruguai, na fronteira com o Brasil. A doença progrediu lentamente durante 2020, com surtos subsequentes seguidos por um rápido aumento na incidência. O objetivo foi explorar a relação entre a distribuição espacial dos casos de COVID-19 em uma cidade binacional e variáveis como nível socioeconômico, densidade populacional e padrões de mobilidade, com o objetivo de informar políticas públicas. Métodos: estudo exploratório foi realizado entre agosto de 2020 e janeiro de 2021 com dados do Ministério da Saúde. As variáveis explicativas incluíram densidade populacional, nível socioeconômico e mobilidade. Três períodos distintos de 2020 a 2021 foram identificados. Autocorrelação espacial foi analisada com o Índice de Moran e a estatística Gi* (Getis & Ord). Utilizando a análise de cluster hierárquico, foi possível identificar grupos homogêneos de segmentos censitários. Resultados: um total de 1.846 casos foi georreferenciado. Através da análise de cluster hierárquico, sete grupos homogêneos foram identificados. A mobilidade foi encontrada como explicativa para a incidência de casos no grupo de alto nível socioeconômico, enquanto a densidade populacional explicou as diferenças observadas no grupo de baixo nível socioeconômico. Conclusão: nessa cidade, as populações a serem priorizadas são aquelas que residem em áreas com maior densidade populacional e maior mobilidade. Essa análise territorial em pequena escala fornece informações valiosas para o desenvolvimento de políticas locais destinadas a lidar com crises de saúde.(AU)

Spatial and temporal trends of dengue infections in Curaçao: A 21-year analysis.

Dengue viruses are a significant global health concern, causing millions of infections annually and putting approximately half of the world's population at risk, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue virus spread is crucial for effective prevention of future outbreaks. By investigating these patterns, targeted dengue surveillance and control measures can be improved, aiding in the management of outbreaks in dengue-affected regions. Curaçao, where dengue is endemic, has experienced frequent outbreaks over the past 25 years. To examine the spatial and temporal trends of dengue outbreaks in Curaçao, this study employs an interdisciplinary and multi-method approach. Data on >6500 cases of dengue infections in Curaçao between the years 1995 and 2016 were used. Temporal and spatial statistics were applied. The Moran's I index identified the presence of spatial autocorrelation for incident locations, allowing us to reject the null hypothesis of spatial randomness. The majority of cases were recorded in highly populated areas and a relationship was observed between population density and dengue cases. Temporal analysis demonstrated that cases mostly occurred from October to January, during the rainy season. Lower average temperatures, higher precipitation and a lower sea surface temperature appear to be related to an increase in dengue cases. This effect has a direct link to La Niña episodes, which is the cooling phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation. The spatial and temporal analyses conducted in this study are fundamental to understanding the timing and locations of outbreaks, and ultimately improving dengue outbreak management.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Alagoas, Brazil / Análise espacial-temporal da leishmaniose visceral no estado de Alagoas

Visceral leishmaniosis is a neglected tropical disease. We evaluated the spatial distribution of cases of visceral leishmaniosis in the state of Alagoas, Brazil. All cases of VL, registered by the health department, were analyzed and georeferenced. Results: Between 2008 and 2017, 97.1% of the municipalities presented sporadic classification of transmission. With temporal evolution, the incidence of cases of visceral leishmaniosis was concentrated in most municipalities in the microregion of Santana do Ipanema-AL. Space-time analysis, if considered, may promote the improvement of surveillance and control actions of visceral leishmaniosis.

A leishmaniose visceral é uma doença tropical negligenciada. Foram avaliadas a distribuição espacial dos casos de leishmaniose visceral no estado de Alagoas. Todos os casos de LV, registrados pela secretaria de saúde, foram analisados e georreferenciados. Entre 2008 e 2017, 97,1% dos municípios apresentaram classificação esporádica de transmissão. Com a evolução temporal, a incidência de casos de leishmaniose visceral se concentrou na maioria dos municípios da microrregião de Santana do Ipanema-AL. A análise espaço-tempo, se considerada, pode promover o aprimoramento das ações de vigilância e controle da leishmaniose visceral.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Alagoas, Brazil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniosis is a neglected tropical disease. We evaluated the spatial distribution of cases of visceral leishmaniosis in the state of Alagoas, Brazil. All cases of VL, registered by the health department, were analyzed and georeferenced. Results: Between 2008 and 2017, 97.1% of the municipalities presented sporadic classification of transmission. With temporal evolution, the incidence of cases of visceral leishmaniosis was concentrated in most municipalities in the microregion of Santana do Ipanema-AL. Space-time analysis, if considered, may promote the improvement of surveillance and control actions of visceral leishmaniosis.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral é uma doença tropical negligenciada. Foram avaliadas a distribuição espacial dos casos de leishmaniose visceral no estado de Alagoas. Todos os casos de LV, registrados pela secretaria de saúde, foram analisados e georreferenciados. Entre 2008 e 2017, 97,1% dos municípios apresentaram classificação esporádica de transmissão. Com a evolução temporal, a incidência de casos de leishmaniose visceral se concentrou na maioria dos municípios da microrregião de Santana do Ipanema-AL. A análise espaço-tempo, se considerada, pode promover o aprimoramento das ações de vigilância e controle da leishmaniose visceral.

Was the COVID-19 epidemic synchronous in space? An analysis in the health regions of the Rio de Janeiro state, 2020-2022 / A epidemia de COVID-19 foi síncrona no espaço? Uma análise nas regiões de saúde do estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2020-2022

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 in the Rio de Janeiro state within the nine health regions, between March 2020 and December 2022. Methods: The Poisson model with random effects was used to smooth and estimate the incidence of COVID-19 hospitalizations reported in the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) to verify the synchronicity of the epidemic in the state. Results: The COVID-19 epidemic in the state is characterized by the presence of seven peaks during the analyzed period corresponding to seven found. An asynchrony in hospitalizations was identified, varying according to the different virus variants in the nine health regions of the state. The incidence peaks of hospitalizations ranged from 1 to 12 cases per 100,000 inhabitants during the pandemic. Conclusion: This spatio-temporal analysis is applicable to other scenarios, enabling monitoring and decision-making for the control of epidemic diseases in different areas.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a dinâmica espaço-temporal de COVID-19 no estado do Rio de Janeiro nas nove regiões de saúde, entre março de 2020 e dezembro de 2022. Métodos: Utilizou-se o modelo de Poisson com efeitos aleatórios para suavizar a curva de incidência de hospitalizações por COVID-19 notificadas no Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (Sivep-Gripe) para verificar a sincronicidade da epidemia no estado. Resultados: A epidemia de COVID-19 no estado é caracterizada pela presença de sete picos no período analisado correspondentes a sete variantes encontradas. Identificou-se uma assincronicidade nas hospitalizações, variando de acordo com as diferentes variantes do vírus nas nove regiões de saúde do estado. Os picos de incidência das hospitalizações variaram de 1 a 12 casos por 100 mil habitantes no decorrer da pandemia. Conclusão: Essa análise espaço-temporal é extensível em outros cenários, sendo possível o monitoramento e a tomada de decisões de controle de doenças epidêmicas em várias áreas.

Tendência Temporal no Implante Percutâneo de Bioprótese Aórtica: Análise de 10 Anos do Registro TAVIDOR / Temporal Trends in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: 10-Year Analysis of the TAVIDOR Registry

Resumo Fundamento O implante percutâneo de bioprótese valvar aórtica (TAVI) consolidou-se como opção terapêutica da estenose aórtica de grau importante. Dados sobre as características evolutivas dos procedimentos e dos resultados obtidos com a técnica ao longo da última década, em escala nacional, são desconhecidos. Objetivos Analisar a tendência temporal referente ao perfil demográfico, características dos procedimentos e desfechos hospitalares de pacientes submetidos a TAVI na Rede D'Or São Luiz. Métodos Registro observacional envolvendo 29 instituições nacionais. Comparou-se características dos procedimentos realizados de 2012 a 2017 (Grupo 1) e de 2018 a 2023 (Grupo 2). Foram considerados significantes os resultados com valor de p < 0,05. Resultados Foram analisados 661 casos, 95 pertencentes ao Grupo 1 e 566 ao Grupo 2. A média de idade foi 81,1 anos. Observou-se no Grupo 1 maior prevalência de pacientes em classe funcional III ou IV e escore de risco > 8%. Foi mais frequente o emprego de anestesia geral, monitorização ecocardiográfica transesofágica e via de acesso por dissecção. Maior taxa de sucesso do procedimento (95,4% versus 89,5%; p = 0,018) foi aferida em implantes efetivados a partir de 2018, assim como menor mortalidade (3,9% versus 11,6%; p = 0,004) e necessidade de marcapasso definitivo (8,5% versus 17,9%; p = 0,008). Conclusões A análise temporal de 10 anos do Registro TAVIDOR demonstra uma queda na complexidade clínica dos pacientes. Além disso, o avanço para técnicas de implante minimalistas, somadas à evolução tecnológica dos dispositivos, podem ter contribuído para desfechos favoráveis dentre aqueles cujo implante ocorreu no último quinquênio.

Abstract Background Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has established itself as the preferential strategy to approach severe aortic stenosis. Information on procedural improvements and nationwide results obtained with the technique throughout the past decade are unknown. Objectives To assess the temporal variation of the demographic profile, procedural characteristics, and in-hospital outcomes of patients undergoing TAVI procedures at the Rede D'Or São Luiz. Methods Observational registry comprising 29 national institutions, comparing the characteristics of the TAVI procedures performed from 2012 to 2017 (Group 1) to those performed from 2018 to 2023 (Group 2). The statistical significance level adopted was p < 0.05. Results This study assessed 661 patients, 95 in Group 1 and 566 in Group 2, with a mean age of 81.1 years. Group 1 patients had a higher prevalence of New York Heart Association functional class III or IV and STS risk score > 8%. In addition, they more often underwent general anesthesia, transesophageal echocardiographic monitoring, and access through femoral dissection. Group 2 patients had a higher success rate of the TAVI procedure (95.4% versus 89.5%; p = 0.018), lower mortality (3.9% versus 11.6%; p = 0.004), and less often needed permanent pacemaker implantation (8.5% versus 17.9%; p = 0.008). Conclusions The 10-year temporal trends analysis of the TAVIDOR Registry shows a reduction in patients' clinical complexity over time. Furthermore, the advance to minimalistic implantation techniques, added to the technological evolution of the devices, may have contributed to the favorable outcomes observed among those whose implantation occurred in the last 5 years studied.

Heterogeneidade espaço-temporal dos indicadores de imunização da vacina tríplice viral em crianças no Brasil / Space-time heterogeneity of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination indicators in children from Brazil / Heterogeneidad espaciotemporal de los indicadores de inmunización con la vacuna triple viral en la población infantil de Brasil

RESUMO Objetivo. Avaliar a cobertura vacinal e as taxas de abandono da vacina tríplice viral nas macrorregiões brasileiras. Métodos. Este estudo ecológico, com abordagem espaço-temporal, utilizou dados do Programa Nacional de Imunizações e do Sistema de Informação sobre Nascidos Vivos. Estimou-se a variação anual (2014 a 2021) da cobertura vacinal e da taxa de abandono da vacina tríplice viral em crianças de 12 meses e 15 meses de idade nos 5 570 municípios brasileiros. A análise estatística foi realizada para o conjunto de municípios de cada macrorregião brasileira usando a técnica de varredura espaço-temporal, considerando o modelo probabilístico de Poisson e a hipótese de que os municípios com menores coberturas vacinais ou altas taxa de abandono formariam aglomerados (clusters) espaço-temporais. Resultados. De 2014 a 2021, 38,3% e 12,9% dos municípios alcançaram cobertura da vacina tríplice viral ≥ 95,0% na primeira e segunda doses, respectivamente; 53,6% dos municípios tiveram alta taxa de abandono (20,0% a 49,9%) e 37,2% tiveram altíssima taxa de abandono. O Nordeste apresentou os clusters primários para baixa cobertura da primeira (2018 a 2021) e da segunda doses (2020 a 2021) da vacina tríplice viral com maiores riscos relativos (RR) em relação aos demais clusters primários. O RR para alta taxa de abandono foi elevado em todas as macrorregiões brasileiras (1,57 a 26,23). Conclusões. Em algumas macrorregiões, a taxa de abandono era alta desde 2014, sinalizando risco de ressurgimento do sarampo. Por sua vez, a análise espaço-temporal indicou mais baixas coberturas vacinais em 2020, sugerindo influência da pandemia de covid-19.

ABSTRACT Objective. To evaluate immunization coverage and dropout rates of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine across Brazilian regions. Methods. This ecological study employing a space-time approach used data from the National Immunization Program (PNI) and the Live Births Information System (SINASC). We estimated the annual variation (2014 to 2021) in immunization coverage and dropout rate of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine in children aged 12 and 15 months in the 5 570 Brazilian municipalities. Statistical analysis was conducted for the municipalities contained in each Brazilian region using the space-time scan technique, considering the Poisson probabilistic model and the hypothesis that municipalities with lower immunization coverage or high dropout rates would form space-time clusters. Results. From 2014 to 2021, 38.3% and 12.9% of municipalities achieved a coverage ≥ 95.0% in the first and second doses respectively; 53.6% of municipalities had a high dropout rate (20.0% to 49.9%) and 37.2% had a very high dropout rate. The Northeast region had primary clusters for low coverage of the first (2018 to 2021) and second vaccine doses (2020 to 2021) with higher relative risks (RR) compared to other primary clusters. The RR for high dropout rate was elevated in all Brazilian regions (1.57 to 26.23). Conclusions. In some Brazilian regions, the dropout rate has been high since 2014, signaling a risk of measles resurgence. In turn, space-time analysis indicated lower vaccination coverage in 2020, suggesting the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Evaluar la cobertura de vacunación y las tasas de incumplimiento del esquema de vacunación triple viral en las macrorregiones de Brasil. Métodos. En este estudio ecológico, con un enfoque espaciotemporal, se utilizaron datos del Programa Nacional de Inmunización y del Sistema de Información sobre Recién Nacidos Vivos. Se estimó la variación anual de la cobertura de vacunación y la tasa de incumplimiento del esquema de vacunación triple viral en niños de 12 y 15 meses en 5570 municipios brasileños (en el período 2014-2021). El análisis estadístico se realizó en el conjunto de municipios de cada macrorregión brasileña mediante la técnica de barrido espaciotemporal, con un modelo probabilístico de Poisson y con la hipótesis de que los municipios con menor cobertura de vacunación o tasas altas de incumplimiento formarían conglomerados espaciotemporales. Resultados. En el período 2014-2021, el 38,3% y el 12,9% de los municipios alcanzó una cobertura ≥95,0% para la primera y la segunda dosis de la vacuna triple viral, respectivamente; el 53,6% de los municipios tuvo una tasa de incumplimiento alta (del 20,0% al 49,9%) y el 37,2% una tasa extremadamente alta. En la zona del nordeste se observaron los conglomerados primarios de cobertura baja de la primera y la segunda dosis de la vacuna triple viral (administradas en los períodos 2018-2021 y 2020-2021, respectivamente) con un mayor riesgo relativo (RR), en comparación con los demás conglomerados primarios. Se observó un RR alto de tener una tasa elevada de incumplimiento en todas las macrorregiones de Brasil (de entre 1,57 y 26,23). Conclusiones. En algunas macrorregiones, la tasa de incumplimiento había sido elevada desde el 2014, lo cual indica un riesgo de resurgimiento del sarampión. A su vez, en el análisis espaciotemporal se observó una menor cobertura de vacunación en el 2020, lo que denota la influencia de la pandemia de COVID-19.

Impact of the improvement of living conditions on tuberculosis mortality in Brazil: an ecological study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The risk of death due to tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil is high and strongly related to living conditions (LC). However, epidemiological studies investigating changes in LC and their impact on TB are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of LC on TB mortality in Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: This ecological study, using panel data on spatial and temporal aggregates, was conducted in 1,614 municipalities between 2002 and 2015. METHODS: Data were collected from the Mortality Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The proxy variable used for LC was the Urban Health Index (UHI). Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the effect of the UHI on TB mortality rate. Attributable risk (AR) was used as an impact measure. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2015, TB mortality rate decreased by 23.5%, and LC improved. The continuous model analysis resulted in an RR = 0.89 (95%CI = 0.82-0.96), so the AR was −12.3%. The categorized model showed an effect of 0.92 (95%CI = 0.83-0.95) in municipalities with intermediate LC and of 0.83 (95%CI = 0.82-0.91) in those with low LC, representing an AR for TB mortality of −8.7% and −20.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Improved LC impacted TB mortality, even when adjusted for other determinants. This impact was greater in the strata of low-LC municipalities.

Distribution of cases of congenital heart disease in a hospital in Oeste Paulista / Distribuição dos casos de cardiopatias congênitas em um hospital do Oeste Paulista

The aim of this research was to conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal analysis of the population affected by congenital heart anomalies assisted at the Pediatric Cardiology Outpatient Department at the distinguished Western Paulista reference hospital. We conducted a retrospective study involving the analysis of electronic database records and patient medical charts for individuals diagnosed with congenital heart disease during the period from July 2013 to July 2018. A total of 298 medical records were selected for the analysis of variables encompassing the ICD-10 codes, gender, spatial distribution, and temporal trends. It was possible to observe that septal defects were the most prevalent congenital heart abnormalities, and there was no gender-based difference. An increase in diagnoses was noted from 2014, coinciding with the implementation of the "heart test," and 51% of the cases were from Presidente Prudente, with a higher concentration of cases in the industrial park area. There is an association between cardiac congenital malformations and an adverse environmental context. The findings can inform public health policies aimed at reducing the exposure of the most vulnerable population in pursuit of improving health indicators (AU).

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal dos pacientes com cardiopatias congênitas aten-didos no Ambulatório de Cardiologia Pediátrica do Hospital de referência do Oeste Paulista. Realizamos um estudo retrospectivo com análise de dados de base eletrônica e prontuários dos pacientes diagnosticados com cardiopatia congênita entre os períodos de julho de 2013 a julho de 2018. Foram selecionados 298 prontuários para análise das variáveis de CID-10, gênero, distribuição espacial e série temporal. Foi possível observar que os defeitos septais foram as cardiopatias mais prevalentes, não houve diferença entre os gêneros. Notou-se aumento do diagnóstico a partir de 2014, com implementação do teste do coraçãozinho e 51% dos casos eram da cidade de Presidente Prudente, com maior concentração de casos na região do parque industrial. Há uma relação na incidência das malformações cardíacas com o meio ambiente desfavorável. Os resultados encontrados podem guiar políticas de saúde pública, visando reduzir a exposição da população mais vulnerável, na busca da melhora nos índices de saúde (AU).

A Geospatial Model to Identify Areas Associated with Late- Stage Breast Cancer: A Spatial Epidemiology Approach.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to show how a geospatial model can be used to identify areas with a higher probability for late-stage breast cancer (BC) diagnoses. METHODS: Our study considered an ecological design. Clinical records at a tertiary care hospital were reviewed in order to obtain the place of residence and stage of the disease, which was classified as early (0-IIA) and late (IIB-IV) and whose diagnoses were made during the 2013-2017 period. Then, they were geolocated to identify the distribution and spatial trend. Subsequently, the pattern of location, i.e. scattered, random and concentrated, was statistically assessed and a geospatial model was elaborated to determine the probability of late diagnoses in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. RESULT: There were 1 954 (N) geolocated BC diagnoses: 58.3% were late. During the five-year period, a southwest-northeast trend was identified, nearly 9.5% of the surface of Jalisco, where 6 out of 10 (n= 751) late- stage diagnoses were concentrated. A concentrated and statistically significant pattern was identified in the southern, central and northern Pacific area of Jalisco, where the geospatial model delimited the places with the highest probability of late clinical stages (p <0.05). CONCLUSION: The geographical differences associated with the late diagnoses of BC suggest it is necessary to adapt and focus the strategies for early detection as an alternative to create a major impact on the population. Reproducible analysis tools were used in other contexts where geolocation data are available to complement public policies and strategies aimed to control BC.

Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Viruses' Infection in Rio de Janeiro State from 2010 to 2019.

Dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) virus infections are widespread throughout the Rio de Janeiro state. The co-circulation of these emergent arboviruses constitutes a serious public health problem, resulting in outbreaks that can spatially and temporally overlap. Environmental conditions favor the presence, maintenance, and expansion of Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of these urban arboviruses. This study assessed the detection of clusters of urban arboviruses in the Rio de Janeiro state from 2010 to 2019. Notified cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were grouped by year according to the onset of symptoms and their municipality of residence. The study period recorded the highest number of dengue epidemics in the state along with the simultaneous circulation of chikungunya and Zika viruses. The analyzes showed that the central municipalities of the metropolitan regions were associated with higher risk areas. Central municipalities in metropolitan regions were the first most likely clusters for dengue and Zika, and the second most likely cluster for chikungunya. Furthermore, the northwest and north regions were comprised clusters with the highest relative risk for the three arboviruses, underscoring the impact of these arboviruses in less densely populated regions of Brazil. The identification of high-risk areas over time highlights the need for effective control measures, targeted prevention and control interventions for these urban arboviral diseases.

A non-expensive bidimensional assessment can detect subtle alterations in gait performance in people in the early stages of Parkinson's disease.

Background: Gait is one of the activities most affected by the symptoms of Parkinson's disease and may show a linear decline as the disease progresses. Early assessment of its performance through clinically relevant tests is a key factor in designing efficient therapeutic plans and procedures, which can be enhanced using simple and low-cost technological instruments. Objective: To investigate the effectiveness of a two-dimensional gait assessment to identify the decline in gait performance associated with Parkinson's disease progression. Methods: One hundred and seventeen people with Parkinson's disease, classified between early and intermediate stages, performed three clinical gait tests (Timed Up and Go, Dynamic Gait Index, and item 29 of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale), in addition to a six-meter gait test recorded by a two-dimensional movement analysis software. Based on variables generated by the software, a gait performance index was created, allowing a comparison between its results with the results obtained by clinical tests. Results: There were differences between sociodemographic variables directly related to the evolution of Parkinson's disease. Compared to clinical tests, the index proposed to analyze gait showed greater sensitivity and was able to differentiate the first three stages of disease evolution (Hoehn and Yahr I and II: p = 0.03; Hoehn and Yahr I and III: p = 0.00001; Hoehn and Yahr II and III: p = 0.02). Conclusion: Based on the index provided by a two-dimensional movement analysis software that uses kinematic gait variables, it was possible to differentiate the gait performance decline among the three first stages of Parkinson's disease evolution. This study offers a promising possibility of early identification of subtle changes in an essential function of people with Parkinson's disease.