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This systematic review evaluates the efficacy and long-term effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) across diverse clinical and observational settings within the United States in Americans aged 16 and older. We conducted an extensive literature search utilizing various types of studies to assess the vaccine's performance in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes. Our initial search in PubMed on March 14, 2022, yielded 6,725 potentially relevant articles, with 26 undergoing full-text assessment and eight meeting the inclusion criteria. To incorporate the most up-to-date findings, a secondary search was conducted on July 6, 2024, using improved and refined Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms within the PubMed and Scopus databases. This expanded approach resulted in 78 potentially relevant articles from PubMed and 1,567 from Scopus, with 40 articles undergoing full-text assessment and an additional 14 articles meeting the inclusion criteria. Early clinical trials reported initial vaccine effectiveness (VE) up to 95% with sustained immunity in various populations. Observational studies and systematic reviews further confirmed VE above 90% against symptomatic infections and highlighted nearly complete protection against hospitalizations and deaths. Recent research underscores the critical role of booster doses in maintaining high VE, especially against emerging variants, showing restored effectiveness up to 95% and supporting their strategic importance in ongoing pandemic responses. Despite observed waning immunity and breakthrough infections, the BNT162b2 vaccine continues to exhibit robust protection across different demographic groups and under varying epidemiological conditions. Our findings advocate for continuous booster updates and adaptive vaccination strategies to manage emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, reinforcing the pivotal role of mRNA vaccine technology in addressing global health emergencies.
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This study introduces an SIRS compartmental mathematical model encompassing vaccination and variable immunity periods for infectious diseases. I derive a basic reproduction number formula and assess the local and global stability of disease-free and the local stability of the endemic equilibria. I demonstrate that the basic reproduction number in the presence of a vaccine is highly sensitive to the rate of immunity loss, and even a slight reduction in this rate can significantly contribute to disease control. Additionally, I have derived a formula to calculate the critical efficacy period required for a vaccine to effectively manage and control the disease.The analysis conducted for the model suggests that increasing the vaccine's immunity duration (efficacy) decelerates disease dynamics, leading to reduced rates of reinfection and less severe disease outcomes. Furthermore, this delay contributes to a decrease in the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ), thus facilitating more rapid disease control efforts.
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Communicable Diseases , Models, Theoretical , Vaccine Efficacy , Humans , Communicable Diseases/immunology , Basic Reproduction Number , Vaccination , Vaccines/immunologyABSTRACT
Intact capsids of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) play a vital role in eliciting a protective immune response. Any change in the physico-chemical environment of the capsids results in dissociation and poor immunogenicity. Structural bioinfomatics studies have been carried out to predict the amino acids at the interpentameric region that resulted in the identification of mutant virus-like particles(VLPs) of FMDV serotype Asia1/IND/63/1972. The insect cell expressed VLPs were evaluated for their stability by sandwich ELISA. Among 10 mutants, S93H showed maximum retention of antigenicity at different temperatures, indicating its higher thermal stability as revealed by the in-silico analysis and retained the antigenic sites of the virus demonstrated by Sandwich ELISA. The concordant results of the liquid phase blocking ELISA for estimation of antibody titre of known sera with stable mutant VLP as antigen in place of virus antigen demonstrate its diagnostic potential. The stable mutant VLP elicited a robust immune response with 85.6 % protection in guinea pigs against virus challenge. The stabilized VLP based antigen requires minimum biosafety and cold storage for production and transit besides, complying with differentiation of infected from vaccinated animals. It can effectively replace the conventional virus handling during antigen production for prophylactic and diagnostic use.
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Despite high pediatric vaccination coverage rates (VCRs), pertussis incidence has increased worldwide, including in several countries in Latin America in the last two decades. Given the few vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies in Latin American countries, this retrospective, observational, cohort study estimated the effectiveness of hexavalent acellular (aP) primary and booster vaccination (wP) against pertussis in infants (6.5-18.5 months) and children (18.5-48.5 and 48.5-72.5 months) in Panama. Age-specific incidence rates (IRs) were calculated for the vaccine's pre-initiation (2001-2013), initiation (2014), and post-initiation (2015-2019) periods. VCRs and trends were determined, and VE was analyzed using a case coverage or screening method to compare proportions of vaccinated cases and vaccinated individuals in the population. Between 2001-2019, 868 confirmed pertussis cases were reported in Panama; 712 (82.0%; 54.8 cases/year) during the pre-initiation period, 19 (2.2%; 19 cases/year) during the initiation period, and 137 (15.8%; 27.4 cases/year) during the post-initiation period. Panama underwent cyclical increases in IRs, which varied between age groups. VCRs increased for primary and booster doses. Between 2015 and 2019, third-dose yearly vaccine coverage increased, on average, 3.3%. Specifically, during the post-initiation period, 109/137 (79.6%) of cases were unvaccinated. Relative VE was estimated at 96.2% [95% CI: 86.5%, 98.9%] with three doses; 100% with 4 and 5 booster doses. Absolute VE was estimated at 99.3% with three doses only. These results show that vaccination played an important role in maintaining a low number of pertussis cases in Panama, affirming the need for sustained investment and commitment to vaccination programs.
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Immunization Schedule , Immunization, Secondary , Vaccination Coverage , Whooping Cough , Humans , Panama , Infant , Whooping Cough/prevention & control , Whooping Cough/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Child, Preschool , Male , Child , Female , Vaccination Coverage/statistics & numerical data , Incidence , Pertussis Vaccine/administration & dosage , Pertussis Vaccine/immunology , Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis Vaccines/administration & dosage , Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis Vaccines/immunology , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Vaccination/methodsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: To investigate the safety (adverse events [AEs] and post-vaccination multiple sclerosis [MS] activity within 6 weeks), clinical efficacy (protection against coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), and vaccine-induced humoral immunogenicity (SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody, anti-nucleocapsid IgG, and anti-spike IgG) of the Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV) vaccine among people with MS (PwMS) receiving different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted between November 2021 and May 2022. PwMS were followed for six months after the 2nd dose of vaccination. Antibody responses were measured 2-16 weeks after the 2nd dose injection. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to assess the impact of each DMT on dichotomous antibody responses, adjusting for age, sex, MS phenotype, expanded disability status scale, disease duration, and vaccination-antibody titration interval. RESULTS: Among the 261 screened PwMS, 209 (aged 38.23 ± 9.73 years, female: 70.8%; relapsing-remitting MS: 80.4%) were included. The frequencies of experiencing non-serious AEs and post-vaccination MS activity were 66.0% and 4.8%, respectively. Breakthrough COVID-19 infection was observed in 14.8% of the PwMS. A subcohort of 125 PwMS was assessed for antibody responses. Positive neutralizing antibodies, anti-nucleocapsid IgG, and anti-spike IgG were detected in 36.8%, 35.2%, and 52.0% of the PwMS, respectively. Multivariate regression indicated a 96% (OR: 0.04 [95% CI: 0.00, 0.51], P = 0.013), 93% (OR: 0.07 [0.01, 0.64], P = 0.019), and 89% (OR: 0.11 [0.01, 0.96], P = 0.045) reduced odds of positive neutralizing antibody, anti-nucleocapsid IgG, and anti-spike IgG, respectively, among fingolimod-receivers. Additionally, anti-CD20s-receivers had 88% (OR: 0.12 [0.02, 0.85], P = 0.034) lower odds of being positive for anti-nucleocapsid IgG. CONCLUSIONS: BBIBP-CorV appeared to be well tolerated in PwMS, with promising clinical efficacy. However, a suboptimal humoral response was observed in PwMS receiving fingolimod and anti-CD20s. Future research should investigate the relationship between humoral responses and the frequency and severity of COVID-19 infection across various DMTs.
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Antibodies, Neutralizing , COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Multiple Sclerosis , Vaccines, Inactivated , Adult , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Cohort Studies , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines/adverse effects , COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Immunogenicity, Vaccine/immunology , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin G/immunology , Multiple Sclerosis/immunology , Multiple Sclerosis/drug therapy , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Treatment Outcome , Vaccines, Inactivated/administration & dosage , Vaccines, Inactivated/adverse effects , Vaccines, Inactivated/immunologyABSTRACT
Dengue, traditionally confined to endemic regions, is now emerging in non-endemic areas, including Italy. This manuscript describes the 2023 Italian autochthonous dengue outbreak, reporting the clinical and demographic characteristics of 19 patients followed by the Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Gemelli IRCCS in Rome, Italy.
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BACKGROUND: ABO1020 is a monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Results from a phase 1 trial showed ABO1020 was safe and well tolerated, and phase 3 trials to evaluate the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of ABO1020 in healthy adults are urgently needed. METHODS: We conducted a multinational, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 3 trial among healthy adults (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05636319). Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either 2 doses of ABO1020 (15 µg per dose) or placebo, administered 28 days apart. The primary endpoint was the vaccine efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 cases that occurred at least 14 days post-full vaccination. The second endpoint included the neutralizing antibody titers against Omicron BA.5 and XBB and safety assessments. FINDINGS: A total of 14,138 participants were randomly assigned to receive either vaccine or placebo (7,069 participants in each group). A total of 366 symptomatic COVID-19 cases were confirmed 14 days after the second dose among 93 participants in the ABO1020 group and 273 participants in the placebo group, yielding a vaccine efficacy of 66.18% (95% confidence interval: 57.21-73.27, p < 0.0001). A single dose or two doses of ABO1020 elicited potent neutralizing antibodies against both BA.5 and XBB.1.5. The safety profile of ABO1020 was characterized by transient, mild-to-moderate fever, pain at the injection site, and headache. CONCLUSION: ABO1020 was well tolerated and conferred 66.18% protection against symptomatic COVID-19 in adults. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Project of China, Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences from the CAMS, National Natural Science Foundation of China.
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The efficacy and safety of mRNA vaccines both rely on a fine-tuning of specific humoral and cellular immune responses. Instead of adjustments in vaccine component, we proposed a concept of chronological management of adjuvant effect to modulate the adaptive immune potency and preference inspired by natural virus infection. By simulating type I interferon expression dynamics during viral infection, three vaccine strategies employing distinct exposure sequences of adjuvant and mRNA have been developed, namely Precede, Coincide, and Follow. Follow, the strategy of adjuvant administration following mRNA, effectively suppressed tumor progression, which was attributed to enhanced mRNA translation, augmented p-MHC I expression, and elevated CD8+ T cell response. Meanwhile, Follow exhibited improved biosafety, characterized by reduced incidences of cardiac and liver toxicity, owing to its alteration to the vaccination microenvironment between successive injections. Our strategy highlights the importance of fine-tuning adjuvant effect dynamics in optimizing mRNA vaccines for clinical application.
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Background: Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent serious illness and death from COVID-19 among the various preventive interventions available. Objective: This review aimed to assess the actual effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in curbing the transmission and incidence of COVID-19 cases, to examine the role of different vaccine types in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify the key factors influencing the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines in containing the spread of the virus. Methods: The suggestions made by the PRISMA Framework were adhered to. To find the publications for the 2020-2023 timeframe, searches were performed through the PubMed databases, EMBASE, Scopus, and ProQuest. For the review, 17 reports satisfied the inclusion requirements. Ad26.CoV2.S or ChAdOx1-S, Gam-COVID-Vac(GAM), Sinovac Life Sciences Co., Oxford-AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech, and viral vector vaccines are among the vaccines that act on various variations. They dealt with the Delta, B.1.1.519, Omicron, and Alpha variations. Findings: Vaccinations against various Variants resulted in fewer COVID-19 infections, fewer deaths, and fewer hospitalizations. The emergency of the Delta variant, persons over 60, and vaccine hesitancy were the main issues affecting the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccinations in containing the virus's spread. Conclusion: The collective evidence strongly supports the conclusion that COVID-19 vaccination plays a crucial role in mitigating the spread of the virus and reducing the severity of illness among those who contract the virus.
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COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Immunization Programs , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , Immunization Programs/organization & administrationABSTRACT
Sheeppox virus (SPPV), goatpox virus (GTPV), and lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) are the three members of the genus Capripoxvirus within the Poxviridae family and are the etiologic agents of sheeppox (SPP), goatpox (GTP), and lumpy skin disease (LSD), respectively. LSD, GTP, and SPP are endemic in Africa and Asia, causing severe disease outbreaks with significant economic losses in livestock. Incursions of SPP and LSD have occurred in Europe. Vaccination with live attenuated homologous and heterologous viruses are routinely implemented to control these diseases. Using the gold standard virus neutralization test, we studied the ability of homologous and heterologous sera to neutralize the SPPV and LSDV. We found that LSD and SPP sera effectively neutralize their homologous viruses, and GTP sera can neutralize SPPV. However, while LSD sera effectively neutralizes SPPV, SPP and GTP sera cannot neutralize the LSDV to the same extent. We discuss the implications of these observations in disease assay methodology and heterologous vaccine efficacy.
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Antibodies, Neutralizing , Antibodies, Viral , Capripoxvirus , Lumpy Skin Disease , Lumpy skin disease virus , Neutralization Tests , Poxviridae Infections , Animals , Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Lumpy skin disease virus/immunology , Lumpy skin disease virus/genetics , Capripoxvirus/immunology , Capripoxvirus/genetics , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Sheep , Lumpy Skin Disease/prevention & control , Lumpy Skin Disease/immunology , Lumpy Skin Disease/virology , Poxviridae Infections/veterinary , Poxviridae Infections/immunology , Poxviridae Infections/prevention & control , Poxviridae Infections/virology , Sheep Diseases/virology , Sheep Diseases/immunology , Sheep Diseases/prevention & control , GoatsABSTRACT
SARS-CoV-2 new waves are primarily caused by changes to the spike protein (S), which can substantially decrease the efficacy of vaccines. Therefore, we tested several multivalent mRNA-LNP vaccines, targeting the full-length S proteins of different variants, and identified an optimal combination for protection against VOCs in BALB/c mice. The tested formulations included trivalent (WT + BA.5 + XBB.1.5), pentavalent (WT + BA.5 + XBB.1.5 + BQ.1.1 + CH.1.1), and octavalent (WT + BA.5 + XBB.1.5 + BQ.1.1 + CH.1.1 + Alpha + Delta + BA.2) vaccines. Among these multivalent vaccines, the pentavalent vaccine showed superior protection for almost all tested variants. Despite this, each multivalent vaccine elicited greater broad-spectrum neutralizing antibodies than the previously evaluated bivalent vaccine (WT + BA.5). Subsequently, we redesigned the multivalent vaccine to efficiently generate neutralizing antibodies against recent VOCs, including EG.5.1. Immunization with the redesigned pentavalent vaccine (WT + EG.5.1 + XBB.1.16 + Delta + BA.5) showed moderate levels of protection against recent Omicron VOCs. Results suggest that the neutralization activity of multivalent vaccines is better than those of the tested bivalent vaccines against WT + BA.5 and WT + EG.5.1. Moreover, the pentavalent vaccine we developed may be highly useful for neutralizing new Omicron VOCs.
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Vaccines are the most effective and feasible way to control pathogen infection. Helminths have been reported to jeopardize the protective immunity mounted by several vaccines. However, there are no experimental data about the effect of helminth infection on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Here, a mouse model of trichinosis, a common zoonotic disease worldwide, was used to investigate effects of Trichinella spiralis infection on the RBD protein vaccine of SARS-CoV-2 and the related immunological mechanism, as well as the impact of albendazole (ALB) deworming on the inhibitory effect of the parasite on the vaccination. The results indicated that both the enteric and muscular stages of T. spiralis infection inhibited the vaccine efficacy, evidenced by decreased levels of IgG, IgM, sIgA, and reduced serum neutralizing antibodies, along with suppressed splenic germinal center (GC) B cells in the vaccinated mice. Pre-exposure to trichinosis promoted Th2 and/or Treg immune responses in the immunized mice. Furthermore, ALB treatment could partially reverse the inhibitory effect of T. spiralis infection on the efficiency of the vaccination, accompanied by a restored proportion of splenic GC B cells. Therefore, given the widespread prevalence of helminth infections worldwide, deworming therapy needs to be considered when implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies.
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INTRODUCTION: Despite substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of influenza vaccines, only 38.6% of the adult United States population received an influenza vaccine during the 2023-2024 flu season. Vaccination rates are typically lower among U.S. minority groups, and in 2022, pregnant persons from U.S. minority racial and ethnic groups showed a decrease in influenza vaccine coverage. METHODS: A survey was conducted with residents of Yakima County, Washington, which is home to one of the state's largest percentages of people who identify as Hispanic or Latino/a. The objective was to evaluate the uptake of influenza vaccine among pregnant persons. Surveys were sent to a random sample of 3000 residential mailing addresses. Of the 500 respondents, 244 (52.1%) reported that they had been pregnant, with those identifying as Hispanic or Latino/a constituting 23.8% of this total. Only 62 (26.2%) reported being immunized against influenza during pregnancy. Respondents who were immunized against influenza chose to be vaccinated to protect themselves from the flu (85.5%, n = 53); because a healthcare provider recommended getting vaccinated (85.5%, n = 53); to protect the baby from the flu (82.3%, n = 51); because it was available for free or low cost (62.9%, n = 39); and because vaccination was convenient (54.8%, n = 34). Qualitative evaluation identified that participants who were not vaccinated against influenza during pregnancy believed the vaccination was not needed, was not recommended by a healthcare provider, was difficult to access, they were against vaccination in general, or they were concerned about the safety and ingredients of the vaccine. CONCLUSION: Barriers to vaccination identified in this study included vaccine distrust, lack of awareness, and concerns about vaccine efficacy and safety. Healthcare providers can help address these concerns by providing education and recommendations about the importance of influenza vaccination during pregnancy.
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The TAK-003 dengue vaccine was licensed in Europe in December 2022, and the official recommendations from most EU countries are still under formulation. To support policymakers, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify TAK-003's immunogenicity, efficacy and safety among seronegative and seropositive populations after the administration of one or two vaccine doses. We included trials retrieved from MEDLINE, Scopus and ClinicalTrials.gov. The outcomes were the rates of seroconversion, virologically confirmed dengue fever and serious adverse events after each vaccine dose. Data were combined using random-effect proportion or head-to-head meta-analyses. We retrieved a total of 19 datasets, including >20,000 participants. TAK-003 showed an excellent safety profile, and the immunogenicity after two doses against the four DENV serotypes was ≥90% among both adults and children/adolescents who were either seronegative or seropositive at baseline. A single dose was able to elicit a high immunogenic response among adults (≥70%) and children/adolescents (≥90%). The primary two-dose immunization course halved the risk of all types of virologically confirmed dengue fever among seropositive children/adolescents, but seronegative minors were only protected against the diseases caused by DENV-1 and DENV-2. Overall, the results support the use of TAK-003 for the prevention of dengue fever in the pediatric population of endemic countries. Uncertainties remain on the use of a single vaccine dose in non-endemic countries.
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Quantile regression has become a widely used tool for analysing competing risk data. However, quantile regression for competing risk data with a continuous mark is still scarce. The mark variable is an extension of cause of failure in a classical competing risk model where cause of failure is replaced by a continuous mark only observed at uncensored failure times. An example of the continuous mark variable is the genetic distance that measures dissimilarity between the infecting virus and the virus contained in the vaccine construct. In this article, we propose a novel mark-specific quantile regression model. The proposed estimation method borrows strength from data in a neighbourhood of a mark and is based on an induced smoothed estimation equation, which is very different from the existing methods for competing risk data with discrete causes. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established across mark and quantile continuums. In addition, a mark-specific quantile-type vaccine efficacy is proposed and its statistical inference procedures are developed. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimation and hypothesis testing procedures. An application to the first HIV vaccine efficacy trial is provided.
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BACKGROUND: In an effort to signal the authenticity of user accounts, social networking sites (SNSs) such as Facebook and X, formerly known as Twitter, use visual heuristics (blue checkmarks) to signify whether accounts are verified. While these verification badges are generally well recognized (and often coveted) by SNS users, relatively little is known about how they affect users' perceptions of accuracy or their likelihood of engaging with web-based information. This is particularly true in the case of information posted by medical experts and health care professionals. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to use an experimental survey design to assess the effect of these verification badges on SNS users' assessments of information accuracy as well as their proclivity to recirculate health information or follow verified medical experts in their social network. METHODS: A survey experiment using random assignment was conducted on a representative sample of 534 adult SNS users in Florida, United States. A total of 2 separate experimental scenarios exposed users to vaccine-related posts from verified medical experts on X. In each case, the original post contained a platform-issued verification badge (treatment group), which was subsequently edited out of the image as an experimental control. For each scenario, respondents were randomly assigned to either the treatment or control group, and responses to 3 follow-up questions were assessed through a series of chi-square analyses and 2 logit regression models. Responses were fielded using a stratified quota sampling approach to ensure representativeness of the state's population based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, and political affiliation. RESULTS: Users' assessments of information accuracy were not significantly impacted by the presence or absence of verification badges, and users exposed to the experimental treatment (verification badge) were not any more likely to repost the message or follow the author. While verification badges did not influence users' assessments or subsequent behaviors, reliance on social media for health-related information and political affiliation were substantial predictors of accuracy assessments in both experimental scenarios. In scenario 1, which included a post addressing COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, users who relied on social media "a great deal" for health information were 2 times more likely to assess the post as accurate (odds ratio 2.033, 95% CI 1.129-3.661; P=.01). In scenario 2, which included a post about measles vaccines, registered Republicans were nearly 6 times less likely to assess the post as accurate (odds ratio 0.171, 95% CI 0.097-0.299; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: For health professionals and medical experts wishing to leverage social networks to combat misinformation and spread reliable health-related content, account verification appears to offer little by way of added value. On the basis of prior research, other heuristics and communication strategies are likely to yield better results.
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In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy (VE) that we found in the literature, for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks, that is, when the force of infection grows in time, reaches a maximum and then vanishes. The fact that the disease occurs in outbreaks results in several problems that we analyse. We propose a mathematical model that allows the calculation of VE for several scenarios. Vaccine trials usually needs a large number of volunteers that must be enrolled. Ideally, all volunteers should be enrolled in approximately the same time, but this is generally impossible for logistic reasons and they are enrolled in a fashion that can be replaced by a continuous density function (for example, a Gaussian function). The outbreak can also be replaced by a continuous density function, and the use of these density functions simplifies the calculations. Assuming, for example Gaussian functions, one of the problems one can immediately notice is that the peak of the two curves do not occur at the same time. The model allows us to conclude: First, the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the force of infection increases; Second, the calculated vaccine efficacy decreases when the gap between the peak in the force of infection and the peak in the enrollment rate increases; Third, different trial protocols can be simulated with this model; different vaccine efficacy definitions can be calculated and in our simulations, all result are approximately the same. The final, and perhaps most important conclusion of our model, is that vaccine efficacy calculated during outbreaks must be carefully examined and the best way we can suggest to overcome this problem is to stratify the enrolled volunteer's in a cohort-by-cohort basis and do the survival analysis for each cohort, or apply the Cox proportional hazards model for each cohort.
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BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the primary method of preventing influenza infection and complications in young children. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of a single dose of MEDI3250 (intranasal, quadrivalent, live attenuated influenza vaccine) in healthy Japanese children during the 2016/17 influenza season. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind, phase 3 study (jRCT2080223345), participants aged 2-18 years received MEDI3250 or placebo (2:1), stratified by age (2-6 years, 7-18 years). The primary and secondary endpoints were the incidence of confirmed symptomatic onset of influenza caused by a circulating wild-type strain or by a vaccine-matched strain, respectively. Safety outcomes included the incidence of adverse events (AEs) and vaccine-related AEs. RESULTS: Overall, 910 participants received MEDI3250 (n = 608) or placebo (n = 302). For the primary endpoint (regardless of the influenza subtype), the incidence of influenza onset was 25.5 % (MEDI3250) and 35.9 % (placebo); relative risk reduction, 28.8 % (95 % confidence interval, 12.5 %-42.0 %). For the secondary endpoint (vaccine-matched strain), the incidence was 10.9 % (MEDI3250) and 17.2 % (placebo); relative risk reduction, 36.6 % (95 % confidence interval, 6.5 %-56.8 %). Solicited AEs occurred in 67.6 % (MEDI3250) and 63.6 % (placebo). Most events were mild; nasal discharge was most common (59.2 % [MEDI3250] and 52.6 % [placebo]). Unsolicited AEs occurred in 36.0 % (MEDI3250) and 33.1 % (placebo). The most common unsolicited vaccine-related AE was diarrhea (2.3 %, both groups). CONCLUSIONS: MEDI3250 had a greater preventive effect against influenza onset in Japanese children than placebo; no new safety signals were observed relative to previous clinical and post-marketing studies of MEDI3250.
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BACKGROUND: In Malawi, the national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) demonstrated less herd immunity than the USA, likely due to higher natural pneumococcal carriage rates. We assessed PCV13 efficacy against experimental pneumococcal carriage in healthy Malawian adults. We explored how natural carriage (pneumococcal carriage of any other serotype apart from 6B) influenced experimental carriage rates and vaccine efficacy. METHODS: Healthy adults aged 18-40 were randomly assigned PCV13 (n=98) or saline (n=106), followed by intranasal SPN 6B inoculation at 20,000 (n=40), 80,000 (n=74), or 160,000 (n=90) CFU/100µl, 28 days post-vaccination. We evaluated natural and experimental pneumococcal carriage before and after vaccination on days 2, 7, and 14 post-inoculation using culture and multiplex qPCR targeting lytA/cpsA genes and compared carriage rates by vaccination status. RESULTS: Of 204 participants, 19.6% (40) exhibited experimental carriage, detected by culture and 25.5% (52) by qPCR. Vaccinated individuals had lower experimental carriage rates (10.2%, n=10/98) compared to the placebo group (28.3%, n=30/106). This difference in vaccine efficacy was more pronounced in participants without natural carriage (PCV13=8% n=6/75 vs. placebo=25.9%, n=21/81) compared to those with natural carriage (PCV13=14.8%, n=4/27 vs. placebo=26.5%, n=9/34). Using a log-binomial model, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 62%, whether assessed by culture or qPCR. Natural carriers had a lower VE of 52% compared to participants with no natural carriage (VE=69%). CONCLUSION: We have shown that PCV13 VE estimate (62%) is robust whether carriage is assessed by culture or qPCR. PCV13 had lower VE in natural carriers compared to those without natural carriage at the inoculation visit.
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Though widely applied in other epidemiological fields, the case-cohort study design has seen little application in the field of vaccinology. Case-cohort studies use probabilistic sampling and reweighting to draw inferences about effects (in this case vaccine efficacy) at the population level in an efficient manner. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was met with high vaccine uptake, and high rates of population testing prior to the emergence of Omicron variants of concern, in Ontario, Canada, providing an ideal environment for application of case-cohort methodology. We combined a population-based case line list and vaccination database for the province of Ontario between December 2020 and October 2021. Risk of infection after vaccination was evaluated in all laboratory-confirmed vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 cases, and a 2 % sample of vaccinated controls, evaluated using survival analytic methods, including construction of Cox proportional hazards models. Vaccination status was treated as a time-varying covariate. First and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine markedly reduced risk of infection (first dose efficacy 68 %, 95 % CI 67 %-69 %; second dose efficacy 88 %, 95 % CI 87-88 %). In multivariable models, extended dosing intervals were associated with lowest risk of breakthrough infection (HR for redosing 0.64 (95 % CI 0.61-0.67) at 6-8 weeks). Heterologous vaccine schedules that mixed viral vector vaccine first doses with mRNA second doses were significantly more effective than mRNA only vaccines. Risk of infection largely vanished during the time period 4-6 months after the second vaccine dose, but rose markedly thereafter. We conclude that a case-cohort design provided an efficient means to identify strong protective effects associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in real time, and also served to quantify the timing and magnitude of infection breakthrough risk in the same cohort. Heterologous vaccination and extended dosing intervals improved the durability of immune response.