Ten-year trajectories of postpartum depression of Japanese mothers and fathers.

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression is a significant concern affecting both women and men during pregnancy and postpartum periods. While maternal postpartum depression has been extensively studied, paternal depression remains under-researched despite its prevalence and impact on family well-being. This study aimed to estimate the trajectories of perinatal and postpartum depression in Japanese parents over ten years and to determine the details of the symptoms of postpartum depression for each trajectory group, considering reciprocal effects between maternal and paternal depression. METHODS: A total of 789 couples used the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale to rate their depressive symptoms prenatally; at 5 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year postpartum; and then yearly thereafter until the 10th year. Parallel-process latent class growth analysis was used to group participants according to their longitudinal patterns of depressive symptoms. RESULTS: For both mothers and fathers, four depressive symptom trajectories fit the data best and were most informative (escalating: 6.5 %; mothers low and fathers moderate: 17.2 %; mothers high and fathers low: 17.9 %; low: 58.4 %). A variance analysis showed significant class-parent interactions across anhedonia, anxiety, and depression subscales, indicating distinct patterns of depressive symptomatology. DISCUSSION: Tailored mental health programs and universal screening using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale are recommended to address the specific needs of each trajectory class. This study contributes to the understanding of long-term depressive symptom trajectories in parents and emphasizes the necessity of comprehensive support strategies to enhance family well-being and resilience.

Trajectory patterns and factors associated with acceptance of disability in young and middle-aged breast cancer patients: a longitudinal study.

PURPOSE: To explore the trajectories of acceptance of disability in young and middle-aged breast cancer patients based on a latent class growth analysis, investigate factors associated with each trajectory, and identify whether return to normal living differs in different trajectories. METHODS: Young and middle-aged patients newly diagnosed with breast cancer who underwent surgery were followed up at baseline, and 1, 3, and 6 months in China. Participants completed sociodemographic information questionnaires, the Adaptation of Disability Scale Revised, and the Reintegration to Normal Living Index. A latent class growth analysis was used to explore the trajectories of acceptance of disability. RESULTS: Among 212 patients newly diagnosed with breast cancer, the mean age of patients was 45.44 years. The majority of participants were with invasive carcinoma (77.8%). Three classes were identified: high acceptance of disability increasing group (high-increasing, 13.7%), moderate acceptance of disability stable group (moderate-stable, 67.9%), and moderate acceptance of disability decreasing group (moderate-decreasing, 18.3%). Being unemployed or retired and receiving endocrine therapy are risk factors associated with acceptance of disability. Carcinoma in situ is a protective factor associated with acceptance of disability. Participants diagnosed with carcinoma in situ and who not receive endocrine therapy were more likely to be in high-increasing group. Unemployed participants before surgery were more likely to be in moderate-decreasing group. Moreover, the Reintegration to Normal Living Index scores had significant differences from baseline to 6 months of follow-up. The high-increasing group had the highest average Reintegration to Normal Living Index scores than the moderate-stable group and the moderate-decreasing group, showing similar patterns at four timepoints. CONCLUSION: We identified three trajectories of acceptance of disability. Dynamic and individualized intervention should be continuously provided to ensure patients acquire adequate medical resources to comprehensively increase acceptance of disability.

Difference in trajectories according to early amyloid accumulation in cognitively unimpaired elderly.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Amyloid ß (Aß), a major biomarker of Alzheimer's disease, leads to tau accumulation, neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Modelling the trajectory of Aß accumulation in cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals is crucial, as treatments targeting Aß are anticipated. The evolution of Aß levels was investigated to determine whether it could lead to classification into different groups by studying longitudinal Aß changes in older CU individuals, and differences between the groups were compared. METHODS: A total of 297 CU participants were included from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database, and these participants underwent apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotyping, neuropsychological testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, and an average of 3.03 follow-up 18F-florbetapir positron emission tomography scans. Distinct Aß trajectory patterns were classified using latent class growth analysis, and longitudinal cognitive performances across these patterns were assessed with a linear mixed effects model. RESULTS: The optimal model consisted of three classes, with a high entropy value of 0.947. The classes were designated as follows: class 1, non-accumulation group (n = 197); class 2, late accumulation group (n = 70); and class 3, early accumulation group (n = 30). The late accumulation and early accumulation groups had more APOE ε4 carriers than the non-accumulation group. The longitudinal analysis of cognitive performance revealed that the early accumulation group showed the steepest decline (modified Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite with digit symbol substitution [mPACCdigit], p < 0.001; modified Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite with trails B [mPACCtrailsB], p < 0.001) and the late accumulation group showed a steeper decline (mPACCdigit, p = 0.014; mPACCtrailsB, p = 0.007) compared to the non-accumulation group. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed the heterogeneity of Aß accumulation trajectories in CU older individuals. The prognoses for cognitive decline differ according to the Aß trajectory patterns.

Mobility trajectories in multiple sclerosis: A comparative study of timed 25-foot walk and a patient-reported outcome measure.

BACKGROUND: Loss of mobility is common in persons with multiple sclerosis (PwMS), but little is known about this impairment from the patient's perspective. OBJECTIVE: The aim is to model longitudinal variation in a mobility patient-reported outcome (PRO) and compare trajectories to those observed for Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW) in a retrospective cohort. METHODS: Latent-class growth analysis was applied to 47,508 measures of Performance Scales© Mobility PRO (PS-Mobility) over ~4 years for 8524 PwMS. For 7347 PwMS, there were 41,988 T25FW measures during this period. Repeated measures correlation and concordance of trajectory assignment were evaluated. RESULTS: At the group level, PS-Mobility and T25FW linearly worsened and repeated-measures correlation was moderate. Eight latent classes with varying shapes that worsened described PS-Mobility variation, compared to six latent classes for T25FW that differed by intercept. The agreement between PS-Mobility and T25FW cluster assignment was modest. A higher proportion of individuals who were Black/African American, older, Medicaid beneficiaries, living in deprived neighborhoods, had longer disease duration, had progressive disease, and ever smokers were assigned to more impaired clusters. DISCUSSION: Cross-sectionally, PS-Mobility and T25FW were highly correlated, but longitudinally correlation was modest to moderate, underscoring the importance of considering both objective and subjective perspectives in evaluating mobility changes in PwMS.

Societal recovery trajectories in people with a psychotic disorder in long term care: a latent class growth analysis.

PURPOSE: For many individuals with a psychotic disorder societal recovery is not accomplished. Research on societal recovery trajectories is mostly focussed on patients with a first episode psychosis. The present study aims to identify distinct societal trajectories in those with long duration of illness, through the identification of patient subgroups that are characterized by homogeneous trajectories. METHODS: Longitudinal data were used from an ongoing dynamic cohort in which people with a psychotic disorder receive yearly measurements to perform a latent class growth analysis. Societal functioning was assessed with the Functional Recovery tool, consisting of three items (1) daily living and self-care, (2) work, study and housekeeping, and (3) social contacts. Furthermore, logistic regression was used to compare subgroups with similar societal recovery at baseline, but distinct trajectories. RESULTS: A total of 1476 people were included with a mean treatment time of 19 years (SD 10.1). Five trajectories of functioning were identified, a high stable (24.5%), a medium stable (28.3%), a low stable (12.7%), a high declining (11.2%) and a medium increasing subgroup (23.3%). Predictors for not deteriorating included happiness, recent hospitalisation, being physically active, middle or higher education and fewer negative symptoms. Predictors for improving included fewer positive and negative symptoms, fewer behavioural problems and fewer physical and cognitive impairments. CONCLUSION: While the majority of individuals show a stable trajectory over four years, there were more patients achieving societal recovery than patients deteriorating. Predictors for improvement are mainly related to symptoms and behavioural problems, while predictors for deteriorating are related to non-symptomatic aspects such as physical activity, happiness and level of education.

Intelligence Mindsets Trajectory Profiles among Chinese Elementary School Students: Associations with Changes in Academic Achievement from Grades 4 to 6.

Early adolescence is a critical period for the development of children's intelligence mindsets, which play a significant role in academic achievement. However, existing research predominantly employs variable-centered approaches, which fail to capture individual differences in mindset-achievement relations. This research addresses this gap by adopting a longitudinal person-centered approach to explore the joint developmental trajectories of growth and fixed mindsets among early adolescents. It further explores how these trajectories relate to changes in academic achievement (i.e., the mean of standardized mathematics and Chinese achievement test scores) over 2 years, accounting for intelligence and sociodemographic factors such as age, sex, and family SES. In two five-wave longitudinal studies with 748 (Mage = 10.23 years, SD = 0.30; 49% girls at T1) and 3258 (Mage = 10.34 years, SD = 0.37; 49% girls at T1) Chinese elementary school students from grades 4 to 6, four distinct mindset trajectory profiles were identified: Growth (initially high growth but low fixed mindsets), Fixed (initially high fixed but low growth mindsets), Moderate (initially moderate levels in both mindsets), and Both-High (initially high levels in both mindsets). Analysis across both studies revealed that students in the Growth trajectory profile exhibited the most significant improvements in academic achievement 2 years later. Conversely, students in the Both-High trajectory profile experienced the least favorable academic outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing individual differences in mindset trajectories and their potential impact on academic outcomes. The current research underscores the need for educational interventions that are tailored to different mindset profiles to optimize student development and achievement.

A person-centered approach to characterizing longitudinal ambulatory impairment in Parkinson's disease.

Loss of ambulation is common and highly variable in Parkinson's disease (PD), and poorly understood from the perspectives of those with PD. Gaining insights to the anticipated perceived trajectories and their drivers, will facilitate patient-centered care. Latent class growth analysis, a person-centered mixture modelling approach, was applied to 16,863 people with PD stratified by early (N = 8612; < 3 years), mid (N = 6181; 3-10 years) and later (N = 2070; > 10 years) disease to discern clusters with similar longitudinal patterns of self-reported walking difficulty, measured by EuroQoL 5D-5L that is validated for use in PD. There were four clusters in early and mid-disease strata, with a fifth identified in later disease. Trajectories ranged from none to moderate walking difficulty, with small clusters with severe problems. The percentage of subjects with moderate (early = 17.5%, mid = 26.4%, later = 32.5%) and severe (early = 3.8%, mid = 7.4%, later = 15.4%) walking difficulty at baseline increased across disease duration groups. The trajectories tended to be stable with variability in moderate and severe groups. Across strata, clusters with moderate to severe problems were associated with more severe impairment, depression, anxiety, arthritis, higher BMI, lower income, and lower education, but no consistent race or gender differences. The findings reveal distinct longitudinal patterns in perceived difficulties in walking in PD.

Longitudinal trajectories of substance use disorder treatment use: A latent class growth analysis using a national cohort in Chile.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Longitudinal studies have revealed that substance use treatment use is often recurrent among patients; the longitudinal patterns and characteristics of those treatment trajectories have received less attention, particularly in the global south. This study aimed to disentangle heterogeneity in treatment use among adult patients in Chile by identifying distinct treatment trajectory groups and factors associated with them. DESIGN: National-level registry-based retrospective cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adults admitted to publicly funded substance use disorder treatment programs in Chile from November 2009 to November 2010 and followed for 9 years (n = 6266). MEASUREMENTS: Monthly treatment use; type of treatment; ownership of the treatment center; discharge status; primary substance used; sociodemographic. FINDINGS: A seven-class treatment trajectory solution was chosen using latent class growth analysis. We identified three trajectory groups that did not recur and had different treatment lengths: Early discontinuation (32%), Less than a year in treatment (19.7%) and Year-long episode, without recurrence (12.3%). We also identified a mixed trajectory group that had a long first treatment or two treatment episodes with a brief time between treatments: Long first treatment, or immediate recurrence (6.3%), and three recurrent treatment trajectory groups: Recurrent and decreasing (14.2%), Early discontinuation with recurrence (9.9%) and Recurrent after long between treatments period (5.7%). Inpatient or outpatient high intensity (vs. outpatient low intensity) at first entry increased the odds of being in the longer one-episode groups compared with the Early discontinuation group. Women had increased odds of belonging to all the recurrent groups. Using cocaine paste (vs. alcohol) as a primary substance decreased the odds of belonging to long one-episode groups. CONCLUSIONS: In Chile, people in publicly funded treatment for substance use disorder show seven distinct care trajectories: three groups with different treatment lengths and no recurring episodes, a mixed group with a long first treatment or two treatment episodes with a short between-treatment-episodes period and three recurrent treatment groups.

What makes children aged 10 to 13 engage in problematic smartphone use? A longitudinal study of changing patterns considering individual, parental, and school factors.

Background and aims: The current research aimed to discover classification concerning problematic smartphone use in children. Furthermore, to investigate their longitudinal trajectories, as well as to discover the connection concerning problematic smartphone usage by individual, parental, and school factors. Methods: A total of 2,399 South Korean children who were in the 4th grade (female 1,206 (50.3%), age 10-13 years) at baseline. Latent class growth analysis was utilized to discover typologies in problematic smartphone use and their longitudinal trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to find various associations among problematic smartphone use and individual, parental, as well as school factors. Results: The results identified three distinct trajectories of problematic smartphone use: (1) a high-level group (7.7%), (2) a mid-increasing group (62.5%), and (3) a low-increasing group (29.8%). The increasing group showed the highest level of problematic smartphone use. Gender, self-esteem, social withdrawal, exercise, parental inconsistency, monthly income, and teacher support were significant predictors. Discussion and Conclusions: The findings suggest that there are distinct developmental trajectories concerning problematic smartphone usage of childhood. The results show that the early discovery of children in danger of problematic smartphone use and targeted interventions aimed at reducing parental inconsistency and social withdrawal, improving self-esteem, exercise, and teacher support may be effective strategies for preventing problematic smartphone usage during childhood.

Memory Trajectories and Disability Among Older Couples: The Mediating Role of Depressive Symptoms.

OBJECTIVES: Using a dyadic approach, this study examined the mediating effect of depressive symptoms on the longitudinal relationships between husbands' and wives' memory trajectories and their prospective disability status. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study 2004-2018 were used. Older (aged 50+) heterosexual couples who had no limitations in the activity of daily living at the baseline (2004) were included (N = 1,310). Latent class growth analysis grouped wives and husbands into distinct memory trajectories in 2004-2014. A structural equation model examined the actor and partner effects of memory trajectories on depressive symptoms in 2016 and disability status in 2018. The mediating effect of depressive symptoms was tested. RESULTS: A total of 4 distinct memory trajectories were found: persistently high, high and slow decline, moderate and slow decline, and low and rapid decline. Only the wife's low and rapid decline memory trajectory predicted her own more depressive symptoms (ß = 0.588, 95% CI: 0.209, 0.967) and her husband's more depressive symptoms (ß = 0.326, 95% CI: 0.004, 0.648). Meanwhile, depressive symptoms had strong and significant actor effects on disability (ß = 0.046, 95% CI: = 0.036, 0.057 for wives; ß = 0.060, 95% CI: = 0.046, 0.074 for husbands). DISCUSSION: The wife's low and rapid decline trajectory was associated with her own and her husband's more depressive symptoms, which in turn increased the disability risk for both partners. Timely identification and treatment of memory decline among wives have the potential to mitigate couples' depressive symptoms and, ultimately, disability risks.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms in young and middle-aged men who have sex with men with new HIV-diagnosis: a 1-year prospective cohort study in Beijing, China.

Introduction: Due to the sexual orientation and HIV diagnosis, young and middle-aged men who have sex with men (MSM) with new HIV-diagnosis may experience more depressive syndromes and face greater psychological stress. The study explored trajectories of depressive symptoms of young and middle-aged MSM within 1 year after new HIV-diagnosis and analyze the related factors. Methods: From January 2021 to March 2021, 372 young and middle-aged MSM who were newly diagnosed as HIV-infection were recruited in two hospitals in Beijing. Self-rating Depression Scale was used to measure the participants' depressive symptom in 1st month, 3rd month, 6th month, 9th month and 12th month after HIV diagnosis. The latent class growth model was used to identify trajectories of the participants' depressive symptoms. Multinomial logistic regression was used to analyse factors related with the trajectories. Results: Three hundred and twenty-eight young and middle-aged MSM with new HIV-diagnosis completed the research. Depressive symptom in 328 young and middle-aged MSM was divided into three latent categories: non-depression group (56.4%), chronic-mild depression group (28.1%), and persistent moderate-severe depression group (15.5%). The participants assessed as non-depression (non-depression group) or mild depression (chronic-mild depression group) at the baseline were in a non-depression state or had a downward trend within one-year, and the participants assessed as moderate and severe depression (persistent moderate-severe depression group) at the time of diagnosis were in a depression state continuously within 1-year. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that, compared with the non-depression group, monthly income of 5,000 ~ 10,000 RMB (equal to 690 ~ 1,380 USD) was the risk factor for the chronic-mild depression group, and self-rating status being fair/good and self-disclosure of HIV infection were protective factors for the persistent moderate-severe depression group while HIV-related symptoms was the risk factor. Conclusion: Depressive symptoms in young and middle-aged MSM is divided into three latent categories. Extra care must be given to young and middle-aged MSM assessed as moderate or severe depression at the time of HIV-diagnosis, especially to those who had poor self-rating health status, did not tell others about their HIV-infection and experienced HIV-related symptoms.

Trajectories and determinants of acute stress disorder during the COVID-19 centralized quarantine: A latent class growth analysis.

COVID-19 centralized quarantine may cause acute stress disorder (ASD). However, it is unknown how individuals present heterogeneous ASD trajectories during the COVID-19 centralized quarantine and what factors contribute to these patterns. This study aimed to identify the ASD trajectories and their determinants during the centralized quarantine period, and the mediating effects of resilience on these associations. A longitudinal survey with three waves was conducted in a randomly selected quarantine hotel in Shenzhen, China from October to November 2020. A total of 273 participants completed online measures assessing ASD symptoms, Eysenck's personality constructs of extraversion (E), neuroticism (N), psychoticism (P), and resilience on Day 1, and reported ASD symptoms on Days 7 and 14 during their 14-day centralized quarantine periods. Latent class growth analysis identified three trajectories: constantly high symptoms (CHS, 4.76%), decreasing symptoms (DS, 11.72%), and constantly low symptoms (CLS, 83.52%). The CHS and DS subgroups both reported lower E and higher N scores, but not P, compared with the CLS subgroup. Resilience mediated the effects of three personality constructs on ASD trajectories, except for the association between N and DS membership. Our study highlights the heterogeneity in stress responses to the COVID-19 centralized quarantine. The high-risk subgroup with persistent ASD symptoms was characterized by lower E and higher N. The resilience process accounted for the effects of personality in shaping distinct ASD trajectories. Our findings have implications to detect the populations vulnerable to ASD and provide insights for developing timely resilience enhancement intervention programs.

Physical activity and transitioning to retirement: evidence from the China health and retirement longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of retirement on physical activity among older individuals remains ambiguous. This study aims to investigate the influence of retirement on physical activity and delineate the trajectories of physical activity changes during the retirement transition among elderly Chinese residents. Additionally, we endeavor to examine the factors that contribute to each trajectory. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study used data from four surveys of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and included a sample of 428 individuals who underwent formal retirement and provided information on physical activity. We employed generalized estimating equation to explore the impact of the retirement transition on physical activity among Chinese older adults. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify distinct trajectories of physical activity, and binary logistic regression was performed to identify pre-retirement factors influencing changes in physical activity. RESULTS: Our findings indicate that retirement can lead to a decline in physical activity among older Chinese residents (OR = 0.85, 95%CI 0.75 ~ 0.97). We identified three distinct trajectories of physical activity during the retirement transition: Trajectory 1 - "sustained low level of physical activity" (7.94%); Trajectory 2 - "middle level of physical activity with gradual decline" (69.16%); Trajectory 3 - "sustained high level of physical activity with significant fluctuations" (22.90%). Furthermore, we discovered that individuals in the "middle level of physical activity and gradual decline" trajectory were more likely to have an annual income exceeding 40,000 yuan (OR = 9.69, 95%CI 1.12 ~ 83.63), reside in urban areas (OR = 2.27, 95%CI 1.14 ~ 4.52), and have a fondness for playing Mahjong (OR = 2.42, 95%CI 1.18 ~ 5.00) compared to those in the "sustained high level of physical activity with significant fluctuations" trajectory. Additionally, having an annual income exceeding 40,000 yuan (OR = 19.67, 95%CI 1.30 ~ 298.61) predicted membership in the "sustained low level of physical activity" trajectory when compared to the "sustained high level of physical activity with significant fluctuations" trajectory. CONCLUSION: Retirement represents a substantial milestone in the life course and is associated with notable alterations in physical activity patterns. Among older Chinese residents, the trajectories of physical activity during the retirement transition exhibit diverse paths and are influenced by pre-retirement factors, including annual income, residential location, and hobbies. The findings of this study have important implications for the formulation of policies aimed at promoting healthy aging among individuals approaching retirement age.

Marginal structural models with latent class growth analysis of treatment trajectories: Statins for primary prevention among older adults.

Latent class growth analysis is increasingly proposed as a solution to summarize the observed longitudinal treatment into a few distinct groups. When latent class growth analysis is combined with standard approaches like Cox proportional hazards models, confounding bias is not properly addressed because of time-varying covariates that have a double role of confounders and mediators. We propose to use latent class growth analysis to classify individuals into a few latent classes based on their medication adherence pattern, then choose a working marginal structural model that relates the outcome to these groups. The parameter of interest is defined as a projection of the true marginal structural model onto the chosen working model. Simulation studies are used to illustrate our approach and compare it with unadjusted, baseline covariates adjusted, time-varying covariates adjusted, and inverse probability of trajectory groups weighted adjusted models. Our proposed approach yielded estimators with little or no bias and appropriate coverage of confidence intervals in these simulations. We applied our latent class growth analysis and marginal structural model approach to a database comprising information on 52,790 individuals from the province of Quebec, Canada, aged more than 65 and who were statin initiators to estimate the effect of statin-usage trajectories on a first cardiovascular event.

Trajectories of cognitive reactivity and its predictive value on postpartum depression in Chinese women: a latent class growth modeling analysis.

Many women are experiencing postpartum depression (PPD) after giving birth. How to recognize and intervene in high-risk PPD women early and effectively remains unknown. Our objective is to describe the latent trajectory groups of cognitive reactivity (CR) in perinatal women, and their relationship to demographic and disease-related factors, as well as investigate the associations with PPD. Data from 321 perinatal women who were evaluated in urban tertiary hospitals in China at three-time points: 32-35 weeks of pregnancy, 1 week postpartum, and 6 weeks postpartum. Latent class growth modeling was used to identify the trajectory patterns of CR and logistic regression was used to explore the association between demographic and disease-related factors, CR trajectories, and depression. Three trajectory groups were identified: the continuing deterioration group (17.2%), the postpartum deterioration group (22.1%), and the consistent resilient group (60.7%). Participants with a bachelor's degree or higher and with gestational diabetes diagnosis were more likely to be in the continuing deterioration group. Those who were from only-child families were more likely to be in the postpartum deterioration group. Women in the continuing deterioration group and postpartum deterioration group were more likely to experience PPD. Targeted interventions should be developed based on trajectory group of CR.

Trends in output of hypertension management and associated factors in primary care facilities: a latent trajectory analysis in China from 2009 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hypertension is high (25.2% in 2012) and there were a large number of patients with hypertension (more than 200 million) in China. Township health centres in rural areas and community health centres in urban areas are responsible for hypertension management. This study aims to identify trends in hypertension management output and related facility-level, geographical and economic factors in primary care facilities and to assess the effect of the national project of basic public health services in China from 2009 to 2017. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey (2018) was combined with retrospective data collection (2009-2017) from 685 primary care facilities in six provinces in China. The hypertension management output was indicated by the number of patients with hypertension under management per 10,000 population. Latent class growth analysis and group-based trajectory models were applied to classify trajectories and determine associations with facility-level, geographic and economic characteristics. RESULTS: The trend in the output increased rapidly from 2009 to 2012 with an average growth rate of 54.58% and slowed down from 2012 to 2017 (growth rate of 5.94%). Five trajectories of the output were identified and labelled according to baseline status and increase rates: low-gradually increasing (16.9%), middle-slightly increasing (16.2%), low-sharply increasing (7.9%), middle-sharply increasing (34.2%) and persistently high (24.9%). The time-stable characteristics, including region (eastern, central or western), district (urban or rural), landform, were associated with hypertension management output of the facilities. Number of public health physicians was a significant time-dependent characteristic influencing management output. CONCLUSIONS: Five latent trajectories of hypertension management output were identified. The output was still at a low level compared with the prevalence of hypertension. Hypertension screening in young people need to be emphasized. Facilities are recommended to establish good relationships with residents for better hypertension management outcomes especially in urban areas.

Long-term trajectories of ambulatory impairment in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Ambulatory impairment is a common and complex manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS), and longitudinal patterns are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To characterize longitudinal walking speed trajectories in a general MS patient population and in those with early disease (⩽ 5 years from onset), identify subgroups with similar patterns, and examine associations with individual attributes. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort study design, latent class growth analysis was applied to longitudinal timed 25-foot walk (T25-FW) data from 7683 MS patients, to determine T25-FW trajectories. Associations were evaluated between trajectory assignment and individual attributes. Analyses were repeated for 2591 patients with early disease. RESULTS: In the general patient population, six trajectories were discerned, ranging from very minimal to very high impairment at baseline, with variability in impairment accrual. The clusters with moderate to very high walking impairment were associated with being female, older and Black American, longer symptom duration, progressive course, and depressive symptoms. In the early disease subset, eight trajectories were discerned that included two subgroups that rapidly accrued impairment. CONCLUSION: We identified novel subgroups of MS patients will distinct long-term T25-FW trajectories. These results underscore that socially disadvantaged and economically marginalized MS patients are the most vulnerable for severe ambulatory impairment.

Adolescent determinants of life-course leisure-time vigorous physical activity trajectories: a 27-Year longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescence is regarded as formative years for building the foundations for life-long health and well-being, and adolescent determinants of physical activity (PA) development is particularly interesting. Novel approaches for the study of PA development, such as group-based trajectory modelling, opens for the possibility of identifying different patterns in the relationship among several known determinants of PA. This study aimed to explore how demographic, psychological and social factors in early adolescence determine membership in four distinct leisure-time vigorous physical activity (LVPA) trajectories from 13 to 40 years. METHODS: This study is based on data from the Norwegian Longitudinal Health Behaviour Study, following a cohort born in 1977 from Western Norway. Four trajectories identified using latent class growth analysis, based on self-reposted LVPA (n = 1103, 45.5% women) measured ten times from age 13 to age 40 and 17 different adolescent determinants, were used in a multivariate multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: We found that gender (male), VPA intentions the next year and athletic identity associated with belonging to the two trajectories reporting the highest levels of LVPA in adolescence, while VPA intentions in ten years were associated with belonging to the active trajectory compared to the decreasingly active and low active trajectories Enjoyment increased the odds of belonging to the increasingly and decreasingly active trajectories compared to the low active trajectory. In addition, two of the social determinants, mother's PA and emotional support from father, were associated with belonging to the increasingly active trajectory when compared to the low active trajectory. Higher family income increased the odds of belonging to the increasingly active compared to the decreasingly active trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Both demographic, psychological, and social factors were identified as determinants of LVPA trajectory membership, and the findings support previous research related to the importance of intentions, but also indicate that enjoyment, role modelling and emotional support in PA can be of great importance to LVPA promotion among adolescents.

A Bootstrap Approach for Evaluating Uncertainty in the Number of Groups Identified by Latent Class Growth Models.

The use of longitudinal finite mixture models such as group-based trajectory modeling has seen a sharp increase during the last few decades in the medical literature. However, these methods have been criticized, especially because of the data-driven modeling process, which involves statistical decision-making. In this paper, we propose an approach that uses the bootstrap to sample observations with replacement from the original data to validate the number of groups identified and to quantify the uncertainty in the number of groups. The method allows investigation of the statistical validity and uncertainty of the groups identified in the original data by checking to see whether the same solution is also found across the bootstrap samples. In a simulation study, we examined whether the bootstrap-estimated variability in the number of groups reflected the replicationwise variability. We evaluated the ability of 3 commonly used adequacy criteria (average posterior probability, odds of correct classification, and relative entropy) to identify uncertainty in the number of groups. Finally, we illustrate the proposed approach using data from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System to identify longitudinal medication patterns between 2015 and 2018 in older adults with diabetes.

Child abuse and individual traits related to developmental trajectories of bullying victimization: An integrated, multitheoretical approach.

INTRODUCTION: Adolescents who experience prior victimization such as child abuse within the home and experience low self-esteem/depression are at higher risk of repetitive bullying victimization when compared to those without such experiences. Recent scholarship has explored growth trajectories of bullying during adolescent development; however, relatively little is known about distinct trajectory patterns of bullying victimization across adolescent development. The current study identifies unobserved subgroups thus capturing the heterogeneity in developmental pathways in bullying victimization. METHOD: The current study uniquely utilized a multitheoretical approach to help explain the phenomenon of bullying victimization among a national sample of 2,190 youth in South Korea from 2010 to 2016. Theories tested include the integrated approach of target congruence, lifestyle and routine activities theories (LRAT), and the state dependence and population heterogeneity perspectives. To conduct this analysis, we performed a three-step latent class growth analysis. RESULTS: The study revealed three distinct trajectory groups. Korean adolescents who had higher levels of low self-esteem demonstrated greater odds of belonging to both the early-onset and decreasing and increasing and late peak groups. Those who had low-self-esteem and were depressed demonstrated greater odds of belonging to the early-onset and decreasing group. Prior experience of child abuse for the early-onset and decreasing group was fully mediated by the measures of target congruence and lifestyles. CONCLUSION: The current study contributes to research on developmental victimization by demonstrating the utility of integrating target congruence variables with lifestyle-routine activity concepts in explaining heterogeneity.