Representação social da Covid-19 para a população de uma cidade de pequeno porte / Social representation of Covid-19 for the population of a small-sized city / Representación social del Covid-19 para la población de un pequeño pueblo

Objetivo: analisar a representação social da Covid-19 para a população geral de uma cidade de pequeno porte do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Método: estudo qualitativo, apoiado na abordagem estrutural das representações sociais. Participaram 100 usuários de serviços de saúde. Os dados foram coletados por questionário sociodemográfico de evocações livres de palavras e roteiro de entrevista semiestruturada. Os dados foram analisados com o auxílio dos softwares Excel, EVOC 2005 e análise de conteúdo temático-categorial para contextualização das evocações respectivamente. Resultados: os termos do possível núcleo central foram: morte, sofrimento, cuidados, ansiedade-angústia e vacina. Na primeira periferia: medo e prevenção. À segunda periferia: informação-desinformação; desgoverno; ter-fé e proteção. A zona de contrate: doença; isolamento-social; dificuldades; catástrofe-mundial; desemprego e pandemia. Considerações finais: marcaram essa representação os impactos psicossociais negativos resultantes da desestruturação da vida e das mortes ocasionadas pela nova doença, no entanto o grupo aderiu as medidas de cuidados de proteção.

Objective: to analyze the social representation of Covid-19 among the general population of a small-sized city in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Method: Qualitative study, based on the structural approach of social representations. One hundred healthcare service users participated. Data were collected through a sociodemographic questionnaire, free word evocation, and a semi-structured interview guide. The data were analyzed using Excel software, EVOC 2005, and thematic-categorical content analysis for contextualization of the evocations, respectively. Results: the terms of the possible central core were: death, suffering, care, anxiety-distress, and vaccine. In the first periphery: fear and prevention. In the second periphery: information-misinformation; mismanagement; having faith and protection. The contrast zone: disease; social isolation; difficulties; global catastrophe; unemployment; and pandemic. Final considerations: this representation was marked by the negative psychosocial impacts resulting from the disruption of life and the deaths caused by the new disease; however, the group adhered to protective care measures.

Objetivo: analizar la representación social del Covid-19 para la población general de una pequeña ciudad del Estado de Río de Janeiro. Método: estudio cualitativo, basado en el enfoque estructural de las representaciones sociales. Participaron 100 usuarios de servicios de salud. Los datos se recolectaron mediante un cuestionario sociodemográfico con evocación libre de palabras y una guía de entrevista semiestructurada. Los datos fueron analizados utilizando lo software Excel y EVOC 2005 y análisis de contenido temático-categórico para contextualizar las evocaciones respectivamente. Resultados: los términos del posible núcleo central eran: muerte, sufrimiento, cuidados, ansiedad-angustia y vacuna. En la primera periferia: miedo y prevención. En la segunda periferia: información-desinformación; desgobierno; tener fe y protección. La zona de contraste: enfermedad; aislamiento-social; dificultades; catástrofe-mundial; desempleo y pandemia. Consideraciones finales: esta representación se caracterizó por los impactos psicosociales negativos derivados de la desestructuración de la vida y de las muertes causada por la nueva enfermedad, sin embargo, el grupo adhirió a las medidas de protección.

Perceived Disruption of COVID-19 on Medical Education in Incoming Psychiatric Residents.

Background: In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused educational disruptions to many medical students nationally. Societal and hospital guidelines, including social distancing protocols, resulted in the cancellation or postponement of many elective procedures. A shortage in personal protective equipment also contributed to restrictions in clinical experiences for trainees. The purpose of this study was to determine resident-perceived preparedness in core clinical competencies and evaluate the disruptions to core clerkships. Methods: A survey was developed to assess self-perceptions of clinical competencies and disruptions to core clerkship experiences. It was distributed to 63 incoming psychiatric residents who matched to training programs in the United States. Results: The survey response rate was 97%. The majority of respondents achieved self-expected levels of proficiency in clinical skills. Deficits were greatest for pelvic/rectal exams and transitions of care. Most students did not experience disruptions to clerkships. Internal medicine, obstetrics, and gynecology clerkships reported the highest rates of virtual completion. Procedures with the lowest reported perceived preparation were arterial puncture, airway management, and IV placement, respectively. Conclusion: Our survey results indicated that most learners did not perceive disruptions to their medical education and incoming psychiatry residents felt well-prepared to start residency. Some specific procedural skills appear to have been affected. Attempts to mitigate these specific inadequacies may help mitigate disruptions due to future events.

The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Resident Education and Burnout.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the residency experience for physicians across all specialties. There have been studies examining resident perspectives on changes in curriculum and clinical experiences due to the pandemic; however, little research has been conducted on how residents in different specialties interpreted their educational experience and rates of burnout during the pandemic. Methods: We extended surveys to 281 residents across 15 separate residency programs between November 17, 2020, and December 20, 2020. The questions pertained to burnout and the effects of the pandemic on their careers. Differences between general and specialty medicine resident responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: The final analysis included 105 responses (40% response rate). We received 62 surveys (59%) from general medicine residents and 43 surveys (41%) from specialty medicine residents, with a higher response rate from junior level trainees in both groups. We found no significant differences between general and specialty residents on the level of burnout, impact on clinical experience, or future career due to COVID-19, though there was a significant difference between resident groups on the perceived impact of COVID-19 on learning. Conclusion: Specialty medicine residents reported a negative perception of the pandemic's impact on their learning during residency suggesting a greater impact on training than was perceived by the general medicine residents. Residents from general and specialty medicine programs reported similar levels of burnout and similar perceptions of the pandemic's impact on their clinical experience and future career prospects. Understanding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on resident education and well-being should serve graduate medical education administrators well and prepare them for future interruptions in the traditional learning process.

Case-cohort design as an efficient approach to evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, waning, heterologous immune effect and optimal dosing interval.

Though widely applied in other epidemiological fields, the case-cohort study design has seen little application in the field of vaccinology. Case-cohort studies use probabilistic sampling and reweighting to draw inferences about effects (in this case vaccine efficacy) at the population level in an efficient manner. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was met with high vaccine uptake, and high rates of population testing prior to the emergence of Omicron variants of concern, in Ontario, Canada, providing an ideal environment for application of case-cohort methodology. We combined a population-based case line list and vaccination database for the province of Ontario between December 2020 and October 2021. Risk of infection after vaccination was evaluated in all laboratory-confirmed vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 cases, and a 2 % sample of vaccinated controls, evaluated using survival analytic methods, including construction of Cox proportional hazards models. Vaccination status was treated as a time-varying covariate. First and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine markedly reduced risk of infection (first dose efficacy 68 %, 95 % CI 67 %-69 %; second dose efficacy 88 %, 95 % CI 87-88 %). In multivariable models, extended dosing intervals were associated with lowest risk of breakthrough infection (HR for redosing 0.64 (95 % CI 0.61-0.67) at 6-8 weeks). Heterologous vaccine schedules that mixed viral vector vaccine first doses with mRNA second doses were significantly more effective than mRNA only vaccines. Risk of infection largely vanished during the time period 4-6 months after the second vaccine dose, but rose markedly thereafter. We conclude that a case-cohort design provided an efficient means to identify strong protective effects associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in real time, and also served to quantify the timing and magnitude of infection breakthrough risk in the same cohort. Heterologous vaccination and extended dosing intervals improved the durability of immune response.

Accuracy of US CDC COVID-19 forecasting models.

Accurate predictive modeling of pandemics is essential for optimally distributing biomedical resources and setting policy. Dozens of case prediction models have been proposed but their accuracy over time and by model type remains unclear. In this study, we systematically analyze all US CDC COVID-19 forecasting models, by first categorizing them and then calculating their mean absolute percent error, both wave-wise and on the complete timeline. We compare their estimates to government-reported case numbers, one another, as well as two baseline models wherein case counts remain static or follow a simple linear trend. The comparison reveals that around two-thirds of models fail to outperform a simple static case baseline and one-third fail to outperform a simple linear trend forecast. A wave-by-wave comparison of models revealed that no overall modeling approach was superior to others, including ensemble models and errors in modeling have increased over time during the pandemic. This study raises concerns about hosting these models on official public platforms of health organizations including the US CDC which risks giving them an official imprimatur and when utilized to formulate policy. By offering a universal evaluation method for pandemic forecasting models, we expect this study to serve as the starting point for the development of more accurate models.

Opioid-Related Emergency Department Visits Before and During COVID-19: Association with Community-Level Factors.

Background: The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationship between community-level variables and emergency department (ED) visit rates before and during COVID-19. The focus was on opioid-related ED visits. Despite large declines in overall ED visits during COVID-19, opioid-related visits increased. While visits for avoidable conditions decreased, the opposite was true for opioid-related visits. Methods: We combined data from Florida EDs with community-level variables from the 2020 American Community Survey. The outcome measures of the study were quarterly ZIP code tabulation-area-level ED visit rates for opioid-related ED visits as well as visit rates for all other causes. Associations with opioid-related visit rates were estimated before and during COVID-19. Results: The associations between community-level variables and opioid-related visit rates did not match those found when analyzing overall ED visit rates. The increase in opioid-related visits during COVID-19 was not unique to or more prevalent in areas with a larger percentage of racial/ethnic minority populations. However, socioeconomic status was important, as areas with higher unemployment, lower income, lower home ownership, and higher uninsured had higher overall ED visit rates and opioid visit rates during the pandemic. In addition, the negative association with income increased during the pandemic. Conclusion: These results suggest socioeconomic status should be the focus of prevention and treatment efforts to reduce opioid-related visits in future pandemics. Healthcare organizations can use these results to target their prevention and treatment efforts during future pandemics.

Survival, mortality and epidemic risk status of COVID-19: a population-based Study in Golestan province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Appreciating the various dimensions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic can improve health systems and prepare them to deal better with future pandemics and public health events. This study was conducted to investigate the association between the survival of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and the epidemic risk stratification of the disease in Golestan province, Iran. METHODS: In this study, all patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized in the hospitals of Golestan province of Iran from February 20, 2020, to December 19, 2022, and were registered in the Medical Care Monitoring Center (MCMC) system (85,885 individuals) were examined.The community's epidemic risk status (ERS) was determined based on the daily incidence statistics of COVID-19. The survival distribution and compare Survival in different subgroups was investigated using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank test and association between the survival and ERS by multiple Cox regression modeling. RESULTS: Out of 68,983 individuals whose data were correctly recorded, the mean age was 49 (SD = 23.98) years, and 52.8% were women. In total, 11.1% eventually died. The length of hospital stay was varying significantly with age, gender, ERS, underlying diseases, and COVID-19 severity (P < 0.001 for all). The adjusted hazard ratio of death for the ERS at medium, high, and very high-risk status compared to the low-risk status increased by 19%, 26%, and 56%, respectively (P < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Enhancing preparedness, facilitating rapid rises in hospital capacities, and developing backup healthcare capacities can prevent excessive hospital referrals during health crises and further deaths.

Assisted Reproductive Technology During COVID-19: A Population-Based Study Of Pregnancy Outcomes.

We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the pregnancy outcomes of patients who used assisted reproductive technology. We conducted a population-based cohort study of 443,101 patients who conceived naturally or with assisted reproductive technology between December 2015 and July 2021 and had a delivery in hospitals of Quebec, Canada. The main exposure measure was use of assisted reproductive technology before or during the pandemic. Outcomes included preeclampsia, preterm birth, and other pregnancy complications. We used adjusted log-binomial regression models to estimate risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of assisted reproductive technology with adverse pregnancy outcomes compared with natural conception before vs. during the pandemic. In secondary analyses, we examined the association of COVID-19 infection with pregnancy outcomes among women who used assisted reproductive technology. Compared with natural conception, assisted reproductive technology was associated with an increased risk of preeclampsia (RR 1.43; 95% CI 1.21-1.68), preterm birth (RR 2.07; 95% CI 1.84-2.33), and low birth weight (RR 1.94; 95% CI 1.72-2.20) during the pandemic. However, the same risks were also present before the pandemic. Compared with no infection, COVID-19 infection was not associated with adverse outcomes among women who conceived with assisted reproductive technology. This study suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly impact the pregnancy outcomes of women who underwent assisted reproductive procedures in Quebec. The findings are reassuring for patients concerned about the potential reproductive effects of the pandemic.

Pandemics: past, present, and future: multitasking challenges in need of cross-disciplinary, transdisciplinary, and multidisciplinary collaborative solutions.

The extensive history of pandemics has spanned many centuries, profoundly impacting societies, economies, and public health, and thereby shaping the course of history in various ways. Advances in medicine, science, and public health practices have played a pivotal role in mitigating the effects of pandemics over time. This review explores the scientific landscape of contemporary pandemics, examining their diverse and complex nature. It goes beyond the biological aspects of pandemics to consider socioeconomic, environmental, and technological factors. Through a scientific lens, this study aims to understand the complexities of pandemics and contribute to the expanding knowledge base that helps humanity strengthen its defenses against global health threats. By elucidating the enigmas of pandemics, the study hopes to foster a more resilient and prepared global health environment. Highlighting the importance of a multidisciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and transdisciplinary approach, this exploration emphasizes the critical need to integrate biological, socioeconomic, environmental, and technological domains to develop more robust defenses against these global health challenges.

The effect of midwifery students' changing life conditions and e-learning experiences on the state of their anxiety and hopelessness during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Background: Giving the existing formal education through the internet without a planned transition to distance education negatively affected the learning processes of the students. Objectives: The study aims to identify the midwifery students' changing life conditions and e- learning experiences on the state of their anxiety and hopelessness during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods: Designed as cross-sectional research, the study was performed with the participation of 1,296 midwifery undergraduate students. The survey form comprised of questions that explored the students' demographic characteristics, life conditions changing during the Covid-19 pandemic and distance education experiences, the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale-7, and the Beck Hopelessness Scale were used in the data collection. Findings: It was discerned that, of the participant midwifery students, 55.2% spent the period of the pandemic in the province center, 51.7% used smartphones to have access to the distance education, 50.3% had trouble in following up the courses due to the limited computer and internet access, 63.5% failed to follow up the courses because of the infrastructure problems related to the distance education. It was found that, of the participant midwifery students, 54.6% exhibited anxiety symptoms and 26.3% had hopelessness symptoms. It was identified that having trouble in following up the courses increased anxiety by 1.438 times (CI:1.103-1.875) and hopelessness by 1.980 times (CI:1.459-2.687), having tensions in the family relations increased anxiety by 2.362 times (CI:1.780-3.134) and hopelessness by 1.789 times (CI:1.235-2.594), and having psychological support for anxiety and worry increased anxiety by 2.914 times (CI:2.208-3.8477) and hopelessness by 1.875 times (CI:1.083-3.247). It was ascertained that hopelessness increased anxiety by 2.878 times (CI:2.075-3.991) whilst anxiety increased hopelessness by 2.755 times (CI:1.985-3.823) (p<0.05). Conclusion: As well as the Covid-19 pandemic, health, social life, and economic changes; the digital separation that accompanies distance education also affects the students' mental health. Solving the technical problems experienced in distance education, facilitating the follow-up of the courses, and equipping the midwifery students with problem-solving and coping skills will be useful for reducing the midwifery students' hopelessness and anxiety levels.

Anxiety among children a year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: a Brazilian cross-sectional online survey.

Aim: This study seeks to build upon a prior investigation into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and to evaluate the prevalence of anxiety among Brazilian children, along with its associated factors, one year after the commencement of the pandemic. Design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: A survey was conducted from April­May 2021 in Brazil. Children aged 6­12 and their guardians from five Brazilian regions were included. The Children's Anxiety Questionnaire (CAQ; scores 4­12) and Numerical Rating Scale (NRS; scores 0­10) were used to measure anxiety. Results: Of the 906 children, 53.3% were girls (average age = 8.79 ± 2.05 years). Mothers responded for 87.1% of the children, and 70.9% were from the Southeast region. Based on a CAQ score of ≥9 and an NRS score of ≥8, the anxiety prevalence was 24.9 and 34.9%, respectively. Using logistic regression, a CAQ ≥9 score was associated with older children and children with chronic disease or disability. An NRS score of ≥8 was associated with reduced family income during the pandemic, the person caring for the children, and with children with chronic disease or disability. Conclusion: These findings suggest the need to implement public health actions aimed at children with chronic diseases and disabilities and their parents to guide them regarding the warning signs and negative emotions. This study contributes to characterizing the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil and provides a basis for comparison with the literature from other countries.

Consumption of Ultra-Processed Foods in the Brazilian Amazon during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: A COVID-19 pandemic erupted, causing a global viral pneumonia outbreak, marking the most significant public health crisis of the 21st century. These changes profoundly impacted population health and well-being, leading to shifts in dietary habits. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian Amazon before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This is a secondary data analysis study derived from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (Vigitel, 2019-2021) of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. All statistical analyses were performed using the Stata 17 statistical program in the survey module (svy). RESULTS: We found an increased frequency in the subgroups of consumption of ultra-processed foods in the capital of the Brazilian Amazon region between the years 2019 and 2021. In the cities of Boa Vista and Macapá, there was a significant increase in the consumption of snacks, salty snacks, cookies, and meat products. Boa Vista and Macapá showed an increase in the percentage difference in the consumption ≥5 of ultra-processed subgroups, being 30.4% (p = 0.014) and 53.7% (p = 0.014), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicated an increase in the consumption of ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian Amazon region during and after social distancing.

Enhancing the capacity of community health workers in prevention and control of epidemics and pandemics in Wakiso district, Uganda: evaluation of a pilot project.

BACKGROUND: Community Health Workers (CHWs) play a crucial role in outbreak response, including health education, contact tracing, and referral of cases if adequately trained. A pilot project recently trained 766 CHWs in Wakiso district Uganda on epidemic and pandemic preparedness and response including COVID-19. This evaluation was carried out to generate evidence on the outcomes of the project that can inform preparations for future outbreaks in the country. METHODS: This was a qualitative evaluation carried out one year after the project. It used three data collection methods: 30 in-depth interviews among trained CHWs; 15 focus group discussions among community members served by CHWs; and 11 key informant interviews among community health stakeholders. The data was analysed using a thematic approach in NVivo (version 12). RESULTS: Findings from the study are presented under four themes. (1) Improved knowledge and skills on managing epidemics and pandemics. CHWs distinguished between the two terminologies and correctly identified the signs and symptoms of associated diseases. CHWs reported improved communication, treatment of illnesses, and report writing skills which were of great importance including for managing COVID-19 patients. (2) Enhanced attitudes towards managing epidemics and pandemics as CHWs showed dedication to their work and more confidence when performing tasks specifically health education on prevention measures for COVID-19. (3) Improved health practices such as hand washing, vaccination uptake, and wearing of masks in the community and amongst CHWs. (4) Enhanced performance in managing epidemics and pandemics which resulted in increased work efficiency of CHWs. CHWs were able to carry out community mobilization through door-to-door household visits and talks on community radios as part of the COVID-19 response. CHWs were also able to prioritize health services for the elderly, and support the management of patients with chronic diseases such as HIV, TB and diabetes by delivering their drugs. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that CHWs can support epidemic and pandemic response when their capacity is enhanced. There is need to invest in routine training of CHWs to contribute to outbreak preparedness and response.

Understanding the roles of economy and society in the relative risks of zoonosis emergence from livestock.

The emergence of zoonotic infections that can develop into pathogens of pandemic potential is a major concern for public health. The risks of emergence and transmission relate to multiple factors that range from land use to human-non-human animal contacts. Livestock agriculture plays a potentially significant role in those risks, shaping landscapes and providing hosts that can act as the source or amplifiers of emergent pathogens. The relative risks will be contingent upon the nature of those systems, with comparisons often made between intensive, indoor, biosecure systems and more extensive, outdoor, insecure systems. Microbiological, ecological and veterinary sciences provide useful entry points in specifying and modelling some of the relative risks. Yet, they often do so with little regard for social science inputs and by making assumptions about social and economic conditions. In this article, we respond to recent analyses of relative risks by raising the importance of social and economic drivers of risk. We chart social science insights and research that materially alter the zoonotic risks associated with livestock production. Our purpose is to emphasize the requirement for full appreciation of the social, economic and political components of zoonotic and pandemic risk.

Association between leisure-time physical activity and musculoskeletal pain before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in working adults.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had major impacts on the physical lives of individuals, especially on home office workers. In this way, the practice of physical activity has been identified as an ally in the reduction and prevention of musculoskeletal pain. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between leisure-time physical activity and musculoskeletal pain in adult workers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 374 workers of both sexes (age = 46.5±10.5 years). Leisure-time physical activity, number of pain sites, and musculoskeletal pain status were investigated using a questionnaire designed for the study. Statistical analysis was performed using Multinomial Logistic Regression. The significance level adopted was 5%. RESULTS: A significant association was found between physical activity status and the number of pain sites (p = 0.002). In addition, an inverse association was found between physical activity before and during the quarantine and the number of pain sites (two pain sites - OR = 0.40; 95% CI = 0.2-0.7; three or more pain sites - OR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.1-0.5). Physical activity interruption during quarantine increased pain perception by 2.86 times (OR = 2.86; 95% CI = 1.0-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: The findings showed that physical activity before and during the pandemic was a protective factor for body pain during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Influence of respiratory infections pandemics on the mortality of the population of Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To analyze the dynamics and structure of the excess mortality of the population of Ukraine for 76 years (1945-2021). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: An observational population study was conducted. Epidemiological methods were used, in particular, the method of graphical construction of time series, intensive, extensive indicators and indicators of excess mortality were calculated. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The coronavirus disease pandemic in Ukraine became the largest documented respiratory infection pandemic after 76 years, but did not outweigh the dramatic increase in mortality in the 1990s-2000s, in including death in 1995.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada disease.

To determine the disease prevalence rate and clinical characteristics of Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada (VKH) disease among new patients before and after the declaration of a state of emergency (April 7, 2020) in Japan. New patients and patients with newly diagnosed VKH disease were categorized into "Before" and "After" groups based on the initial visit. The prevalence rate, sex ratio, and age of patients newly diagnosed with VKH were compared between the groups. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and recurrence rates were compared among 59 patients observed for > 12 months after receiving pulse steroid therapy. For reference, we also examined the prevalence rate of patients newly diagnosed with acute angle closure (AAC) in the Before and After groups. The prevalence rates of VKH disease among newly diagnosed patients (P < 0.05) or patients with AAC (P < 0.001) were significantly higher in the After group. No significant differences in sex ratio or age of VKH disease were observed in both groups. BCVA and recurrence rates showed no significant differences. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the prevalence of VKH disease among new patients compared with that of AAC. However, the clinical features of VKH disease were unlikely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Country-specific determinants for COVID-19 case fatality rate and response strategies from a global perspective: an interpretable machine learning framework.

BACKGROUND: There are significant geographic inequities in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs), and comprehensive understanding its country-level determinants in a global perspective is necessary. This study aims to quantify the country-specific risk of COVID-19 CFR and propose tailored response strategies, including vaccination strategies, in 156 countries. METHODS: Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in COVID-19 CFR was identified using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) including 35 factors from seven dimensions in 156 countries from 28 January, 2020 to 31 January, 2022. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to further clarify the clustering of countries by the key factors driving CFR and the effect of concurrent risk factors for each country. Increases in vaccination rates was simulated to illustrate the reduction of CFR in different classes of countries. FINDINGS: Overall COVID-19 CFRs varied across countries from 28 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 31 2022, ranging from 68 to 6373 per 100,000 population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the determinants of CFRs first changed from health conditions to universal health coverage, and then to a multifactorial mixed effect dominated by vaccination. In the Omicron period, countries were divided into five classes according to risk determinants. Low vaccination-driven class (70 countries) mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and include the majority of low-income countries (95.7%) with many concurrent risk factors. Aging-driven class (26 countries) mainly distributed in high-income European countries. High disease burden-driven class (32 countries) mainly distributed in Asia and North America. Low GDP-driven class (14 countries) are scattered across continents. Simulating a 5% increase in vaccination rate resulted in CFR reductions of 31.2% and 15.0% for the low vaccination-driven class and the high disease burden-driven class, respectively, with greater CFR reductions for countries with high overall risk (SHAP value > 0.1), but only 3.1% for the ageing-driven class. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from this study suggests that geographic inequities in COVID-19 CFR is jointly determined by key and concurrent risks, and achieving a decreasing COVID-19 CFR requires more than increasing vaccination coverage, but rather targeted intervention strategies based on country-specific risks.

How to protect long-term care facilities from pandemic-like events? - A systematic review on the effectiveness of non-pharmacological measures to prevent viral respiratory infections.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic underscored the need for pandemic preparedness, with respiratory-transmitted viruses considered as a substantial risk. In pandemics, long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are a high-risk setting with severe outbreaks and burden of disease. Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) constitute the primary defence mechanism when pharmacological interventions are not available. However, evidence on the effectiveness of NPIs implemented in LTCFs remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review assessing the effectiveness of NPIs implemented in LTCFs to protect residents and staff from viral respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential. We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and two COVID-19 registries in 09/2022. Screening and data extraction was conducted independently by two experienced researchers. We included randomized controlled trials and non-randomized observational studies of intervention effects. Quality appraisal was conducted using ROBINS-I and RoB2. Primary outcomes encompassed number of outbreaks, infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. We synthesized findings narratively, focusing on the direction of effect. Certainty of evidence (CoE) was assessed using GRADE. RESULTS: We analysed 13 observational studies and three (cluster) randomized controlled trials. All studies were conducted in high-income countries, all but three focused on SARS-CoV-2 with the rest focusing on influenza or upper-respiratory tract infections. The evidence indicates that a combination of different measures and hand hygiene interventions can be effective in protecting residents and staff from infection-related outcomes (moderate CoE). Self-confinement of staff with residents, compartmentalization of staff in the LTCF, and the routine testing of residents and/or staff in LTCFs, among others, may be effective (low CoE). Other measures, such as restricting shared spaces, serving meals in room, cohorting infected and non-infected residents may be effective (very low CoE). An evidence gap map highlights the lack of evidence on important interventions, encompassing visiting restrictions, pre-entry testing, and air filtration systems. CONCLUSIONS: Although CoE of interventions was low or very low for most outcomes, the implementation of NPIs identified as potentially effective in this review often constitutes the sole viable option, particularly prior to the availability of vaccinations. Our evidence-gap map underscores the imperative for further research on several interventions. These gaps need to be addressed to prepare LTCFs for future pandemics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRD42022344149.

Identifying the panorama of potential pandemic pathogens and their key characteristics: a systematic scoping review.

The globe has recently seen several terrifying pandemics and outbreaks, underlining the ongoing danger presented by infectious microorganisms. This literature review aims to explore the wide range of infections that have the potential to lead to pandemics in the present and the future and pave the way to the conception of epidemic early warning systems. A systematic review was carried out to identify and compile data on infectious agents known to cause pandemics and those that pose future concerns. One hundred and fifteen articles were included in the review. They provided insights on 25 pathogens that could start or contribute to creating pandemic situations. Diagnostic procedures, clinical symptoms, and infection transmission routes were analyzed for each of these pathogens. Each infectious agent's potential is discussed, shedding light on the crucial aspects that render them potential threats to the future. This literature review provides insights for policymakers, healthcare professionals, and researchers in their quest to identify potential pandemic pathogens, and in their efforts to enhance pandemic preparedness through building early warning systems for continuous epidemiological monitoring.