Risk assessment of national railway infrastructure due to sea-level rise: an application of a methodological framework in Italian coastal railways.

Nowadays, within the built environment, railway infrastructures play a key role to sustain national policies oriented toward promoting sustainable mobility. For this reason, national institutions and infrastructure managers need to increase their awareness in relation to the current and future climate risks on their representative systems. Among climate change impacts, preventing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal railway infrastructures is a priority. The first step in the climate change adaptation policy cycle is the development of an ad hoc climate risk assessment. In this view, this research develops a vulnerability and a risk assessment metric to identify the hotspots within a national coastal railway due to the SLR impacts. The proposed methodology required different steps to quantify the SLR projections and the vulnerability characteristics of the assets, in terms of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The investigated case study is the coastal railway infrastructure in Italy, thanks to an initial approach of co-design participative processes with the national Infrastructure Manager: Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI). The results of this application, although not included in the paper due to confidential reasons imposed by the infrastructure manager - led to a clear identification of the areas and the coastal railway sections which are exposed to high levels of risks and of the places which require priority actions for urgent adaptation in a view of climate proof infrastructures.

A methodological framework for assessing sea level rise impacts on nitrate loading in coastal agricultural watersheds using SWAT+: A case study of the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina, USA.

This study addresses the urgent need to understand the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems by demonstrating how to use the SWAT+ model to assess the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on agricultural nitrate export in a coastal watershed. Our framework for incorporating SLR in the SWAT+ model includes: (1) reclassifying current land uses to water for areas with elevations below 0.3 m based on SLR projections for mid-century; (2) creating new SLR-influenced land uses, SLR-influenced crop database, and hydrological response units for areas with elevations below 2.4 m; and (3) adjusting SWAT+ parameters for the SLR-influenced areas to simulate the effects of saltwater intrusion on processes such as plant yield and denitrification. We demonstrate this approach in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, a coastal watershed in eastern North Carolina, USA. We calibrated the model for monthly nitrate load at Washington, NC, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.61. Our findings show that SLR substantially alters nitrate delivery to the estuary, with increased nitrate loads observed in all seasons. Higher load increases were noted in winter and spring due to elevated flows, while higher percentage increases occurred in summer and fall, attributed to reduced plant uptake and disrupted nitrogen cycle transformations. Overall, we observed an increase in mean annual nitrate loads from 155,000 kg NO3-N under baseline conditions to 157,000 kg NO3-N under SLR scenarios, confirmed by a statistically significant paired t-test (p = 2.16 × 10-10). This pioneering framework sets the stage for more sophisticated and accurate modeling of SLR impacts in diverse hydrological scenarios, offering a vital tool for hydrological modelers.

Assessing the impact of sea level rise on the Indus delta in Pakistan: A comprehensive analysis of flooded areas and future vulnerabilities.

This research investigates the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the Indus Delta, a vital ecosystem increasingly vulnerable to climate change repercussions. The objective of this study is to comprehensively assess the flooded areas under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report. The study employs a GIS-based bathtub model, utilizing historical (1995-2014) and IPCC-projected (2020-2150) tide gauge data from Karachi, Kandla, and Okha stations to identify potential inundated areas threatened by coastal flooding. Additionally, it analyzes LANDSAT-derived multispectral images to identify coastal erosion hotspots and changes in the landscape. A supervised random forest classifier is used to classify major landforms and understand alterations in land cover. Furthermore, neural network-based cellular automata simulations are applied to predict future land cover for 2050, 2100, and 2150 at risk of inundation. The results indicate that under different SSP scenarios, the estimated inundated land area varies from 307.36 km2 (5 % confidence on SSP1-1.9) to 7150.8 km2 (95 % confidence on SSP5-8.5). By 2150, the region will lose over 550 km2 of agricultural land and 535 km2 of mangroves (mean SLR projection). This work emphasizes identifying sensitive land cover for SLR-induced coastal flooding. It might fuel future policy and modeling endeavors to reduce SLR uncertainty and build effective coastal inundation mitigation methods.

Saltwater intrusion and human health risks for coastal populations under 2050 climate scenarios.

Populations consuming saline drinking water are at greater risk of high blood pressure and potentially other adverse health outcomes. We modelled data and used available datasets to identify countries of higher vulnerability to future saltwater intrusion associated with climate change in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. We developed three vulnerability criteria to capture geographies with: (1) any coastal areas with projected inland saltwater intrusion of ≥ 1 km inland, (2) > 50% of the population in coastal secondary administrative areas with reliance on groundwater for drinking water, and 3) high national average sodium urinary excretion (i.e., > 3 g/day). We identified 41 nations across all continents (except Antarctica) with ≥ 1 km of inland saltwater intrusion by 2050. Seven low- and middle-income countries of higher vulnerability were all concentrated in South/Southeast Asia. Based on these initial findings, future research should study geological nuances at the local level in higher-risk areas and co-produce with local communities contextually appropriate solutions to secure equitable access to clean drinking water.

Climate hazards and psychological health among coastal communities in the Asia-Pacific region: a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative evidence.

This systematic review assesses the relationship between climate induced coastal hazards and psychological well-being of communities in the Asia-Pacific region. The review synthesises findings from 13 peer-reviewed articles published between 2007 and 2020, encompassing data from seven countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vietnam. Results reveals a robust negative association between exposure to coastal hazards and psychological outcomes, notably stress, depression, anxiety, and distress. Most of the studies (77%) corroborate negative impacts of coastal hazards on psychological health. Additionally, 69% of the reviewed articles suggest a correlation between coastal hazards and negative outcomes for community livelihoods and essential resources. The review highlights increased psychological vulnerability among marginalised subpopulations, such as economically disadvantaged communities, a trend supported by 92% of the examined articles. The findings indicates that factors such as environmental vulnerability, resource availability, community traits, and coping methods are important in determining whether a community can effectively handle coastal hazards or face increased psychological health risks. This research aligns with international health frameworks, including the World Health Organization's Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management guidelines. However, a notable research gap emerges - the absence of studies that specifically explore psychological responses of communities to ongoing climate-related coastal hazards, such as sea-level rise. These findings emphasise an urgent need for targeted research to guide comprehensive, multidisciplinary policy interventions aimed at mitigating the psychological and socio-economic repercussions of climate-related coastal hazards.

High-resolution elevation models of Larsen B glaciers extracted from 1960s imagery.

Accelerated warming since the 1950s has caused dramatic change to ice shelves and outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. Long observational records of ice loss in Antarctica are rare but essential to accurately inform mass balance estimates of glaciers. Here, we use aerial images from 1968 to reveal glacier configurations in the Larsen B region. We use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to construct high-resolution (3.2 m at best) elevation models covering up to 91% of Jorum, Crane, Mapple, Melville and Flask Glaciers. The historical elevation models provide glacier geometries decades before the Larsen B Ice Shelf collapse in 2002, allowing the determination of pre-collapse and post-collapse elevation differences. Results confirm that these five tributary glaciers of the former Larsen B Ice Shelf were relatively stable between 1968 and 2001. However, the net surface elevation differences over grounded ice between 1968 and 2021 equate to 35.3 ± 1.2 Gt of ice loss related to dynamic changes after the ice shelf removal. Archived imagery is an underutilised resource in Antarctica and was crucial here to observe glacier geometry in high-resolution decades before significant changes to ice dynamics.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change.

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.

Enhancing human resilience against climate change: Assessment of hydroclimatic extremes and sea level rise impacts on the Eastern Shore of Virginia, United States.

Coastal regions face climate-induced threats that have likely increased over the past four decades. In this work, we quantify the future climate impacts on hydroclimatic extremes in the risk-prone, 15-m-above-sea-level Eastern Shore of Virginia (ESVA) region, utilizing the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Assessment Report 6 (AR6) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). We incorporate historical data on demographics and disasters, land use land cover (LULC), Landsat imagery, and sea level rise (SLR) to better understand and highlight the correlation between hydroclimatic extremes and societal components in this region. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Interquartile Range (IQR) method have been used to evaluate the intensity and frequency of projected climate extremes, in which SLR projections under different greenhouse gas emission pathways are temporally and spatially quantified. Our findings include (1) a trend towards wetter conditions is found with an increase in the number of flood events and up to an 8.9 % rise in the severity of flood peaks compared to the 2003-2020 period; (2) current coastal high-risk regions, identified using historical data of natural disasters, demographics, and LULC, are projected to be more susceptible to future climate impacts; and (3) low-lying coastal towns and regions are identified as currently vulnerable to coastal and SLR-induced flooding and are projected to become even more susceptible by 2100. This is the first effort that provides a valuable scientific basis for anticipated shifts in future climate patterns, essential for natural hazard prevention in ESVA. It highlights the need for authorities and decision-makers to plan and implement adaptive strategies and sustainable policies for the ESVA region and other coastal areas across the United States.

Organic matter composition and stability in estuarine wetlands depending on soil salinity.

Coastal wetlands are key players in mitigating global climate change by sequestering soil organic matter. Soil organic matter consists of less stable particulate organic matter (POM) and more stable mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM). The distribution and drivers of MAOM and POM in coastal wetlands have received little attention, despite the processes and mechanisms differ from that in the upland soils. We explored the distribution of POM and MAOM, their contributions to SOM, and the controlling factors along a salinity gradient in an estuarine wetland. In the estuarine wetland, POM C and N were influenced by soil depth and vegetation type, whereas MAOM C and N were influenced only by vegetation type. In the estuarine wetland, SOM was predominantly in the form of MAOM (> 70 %) and increased with salinity (70 %-76 %), leading to long-term C sequestration. Both POM and MAOM increased with SOM, and the increase rate of POM was higher than that of MAOM. Aboveground plant biomass decreased with increasing salinity, resulted in a decrease in POM C (46 %-81 %) and N (52 %-82 %) pools. As the mineral amount and activity, and microbial biomass decreased, the MAOM C (2.5 %-64 %) and N pool (8.6 %-59 %) decreased with salinity. When evaluating POM, the most influential factors were microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Key parameters, including MBC, DOC, soil salinity, soil water content, aboveground plant biomass, mineral content and activity, and bulk density, were identified as influencing factors for both MAOM abundance. Soil water content not only directly controlled MAOM, but together with salinity also indirectly regulated POM and MAOM by controlling microbial biomass and aboveground plant biomass. Our findings have important implications for improving the accumulation and increased stability of soil organic matter in coastal wetlands, considering the global sea level rise and increased frequency of inundation.

Three Reconstructions of 'Effectiveness': Some Implications for State Continuity and Sea-level Rise.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are uniquely threatened by rising sea levels. Not only does the retreat of their coastlines place them in danger of losing maritime territory; the concurrent possibility of their landmasses becoming either uninhabitable or completely submerged also threatens their very existence. According to one understanding of the law that governs the continuity and extinction of states, political communities that permanently lose 'effectiveness'-typically understood as sufficient governmental control of a relatively determinate territory with a permanent population-must lose their statehood as well. In this article, I provide three reconstructions of effectiveness, each of which rests upon a different normative rationale. My contention is that, regardless of which reconstruction one adopts, the continuity of submerged SIDS is eminently supportable, notwithstanding the arguments frequently made in favour of their formal extinction.

Examining sea levels forecasting using autoregressive and prophet models.

Global climate change in recent years has resulted in significant changes in sea levels at both global and local scales. Various oceanic and climatic factors play direct and indirect roles in influencing sea level changes, such as temperature, ocean heat, and Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This study examined time series analysis models, specifically Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Facebook's prophet, in forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL). Additionally, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was utilized to investigate the influence of selected oceanic and climatic factors contributing to sea level rise, including ocean heat, air temperature, and GHG emissions. Moreover, the models were applied to regional sea level data from the Arabian Gulf, which experienced higher fluctuations compared to GMSL. Results showed the capability of autoregressive models in long-term forecasting, while the Prophet model excelled in capturing trends and patterns in the time series over extended periods of time.

Modeling the impact of sea level rise on endangered deer habitat.

Numerous unique flora and fauna inhabit the Lower Florida Keys, including the endangered Florida Key deer, found nowhere else. In this vulnerable habitat of flat islands with low elevation, accelerated sea level rise poses a threat. Predicting the impact of sea level rise on vegetation and wildlife is crucial. This study used 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea level rise scenarios to assess their effects on No Name Key, Florida. The goal was to estimate changes in the Florida Key deer population relative to sea level rise using a lidar-derived elevation data and a vegetation map. The method used 2 cases to model the sea level rise impact. In Case 1, total non-submerged area at current sea level was determined. Using 5 IPCC scenarios, a new total non-submerged land area was estimated, and deer numbers were predicted for each scenario. In Case 2, upward migration of coastal vegetation combined with the coastal squeeze process was modeled. A distinct elevation range for each vegetation type at the current sea level was determined. Vegetation ranges were redistributed based on respective elevation ranges in the sea level rise scenarios. Areas for each vegetation type were recalculated, and Key deer numbers were estimated for each sea level rise scenario. Results under the worst emission scenario showed the following: (1) for case 1, the land area was reduced to 30 % of the current land area, corresponding to having about 27 deer, and (2) for case 2, the land area was reduced to 70 % of the current land area, having about 54 deer on No Name Key. The results indicated reduced non-submerged land area and less upland vegetation, particularly hardwoods/hammocks, by the year 2100. As less land area is available, a decline in Key deer population is expected as sea levels rise. Since Key deer favor upland vegetation, habitat affected by sea level rise will likely support a smaller deer population. The findings emphasize the need for precise, timely predictions of sea level rise impacts and long-term conservation strategies. Specifically designed measures are required to protect and maintain endangered wildlife, such as the Florida Key deer, residing on these vulnerable islands.

Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica.

Warm water from the Southern Ocean has a dominant impact on the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn on their contribution to sea level rise. Using a continuous time series of daily-repeat satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry data from the ICEYE constellation collected in March-June 2023, we document an ice grounding zone, or region of tidally controlled migration of the transition boundary between grounded ice and ice afloat in the ocean, at the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, a strong contributor to sea level rise with an ice volume equivalent to a 0.6-m global sea level rise. The ice grounding zone is 6 km wide in the central part of Thwaites with shallow bed slopes, and 2 km wide along its flanks with steep basal slopes. We additionally detect irregular seawater intrusions, 5 to 10 cm in thickness, extending another 6 km upstream, at high tide, in a bed depression located beyond a bedrock ridge that impedes the glacier retreat. Seawater intrusions align well with regions predicted by the GlaDS subglacial water model to host a high-pressure distributed subglacial hydrology system in between lower-pressure subglacial channels. Pressurized seawater intrusions will induce vigorous melt of grounded ice over kilometers, making the glacier more vulnerable to ocean warming, and increasing the projections of ice mass loss. Kilometer-wide, widespread seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may be the missing link between the rapid, past, and present changes in ice sheet mass and the slower changes replicated by ice sheet models.

Photosynthetic carbon allocation in native and invasive salt marshes undergoing hydrological change.

Biogeochemical processes mediated by plants and soil in coastal marshes are vulnerable to environmental changes and biological invasion. In particular, tidal inundation and salinity stress will intensify under future rising sea level scenarios. In this study, the interactive effects of flooding regimes (non-waterlogging vs. waterlogging) and salinity (0, 5, 15, and 30 parts per thousand (ppt)) on photosynthetic carbon allocation in plant, rhizodeposition, and microbial communities in native (Phragmites australis) and invasive (Spartina alterniflora) marshes were investigated using mesocosm experiments and 13CO2 pulse-labeling techniques. The results showed that waterlogging and elevated salinity treatments decreased specific root allocation (SRA) of 13C, rhizodeposition allocation (RA) 13C, soil 13C content, grouped microbial PLFAs, and the fungal 13C proportion relative to total PLFAs-13C. The lowest SRA, RA, and fungal 13C proportion occurred under the combined waterlogging and high (30 ppt) salinity treatments. Relative to S. alterniflora, P. australis displayed greater sensitivity to hydrological changes, with a greater reduction in rhizodeposition, soil 13C content, and fungal PLFAs. S. alterniflora showed an earlier peak SRA but a lower root/shoot 13C ratio than P. australis. This suggests that S. alterniflora may transfer more photosynthetic carbon to the shoot and rhizosphere to facilitate invasion under stress. Waterlogging and high salinity treatments shifted C allocation towards bacteria over fungi for both plant species, with a higher allocation shift in S. alterniflora soil, revealing the species-specific microbial response to hydrological stresses. Potential shifts towards less efficient bacterial pathways might result in accelerated carbon loss. Over the study period, salinity was the primary driver for both species, explaining 33.2-50.8 % of 13C allocation in the plant-soil-microbe system. We propose that future carbon dynamics in coastal salt marshes under sea-level rise conditions depend on species-specific adaptive strategies and carbon allocation patterns of native and invasive plant-soil systems.

Sea-level rise and arsenic-rich soils: A toxic relationship.

In the United States, dangerously high arsenic (As) levels have been found in drinking water wells in more than 25 states, potentially exposing 2.1 million people to drinking water high in As; a known carcinogen. The anticipated sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to alter soil biogeochemical and hydrological conditions, potentially impacting their ability to sequester As. In our study of coastal Wilmington, DE, an area projected to experience a 1 -meter SLR by 2100, we examined the spatial distribution, speciation, and release possibilities of As due to SLR. To understand the complex dynamics at play, we employed a comprehensive approach, including bulk and micro X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements, hydrological pattern evaluation, and macroscopic stirred-flow experiments. Our results suggest that introducing reducing and saline conditions can increase As release in both river water and seawater inundation scenarios, most likely due to ionic competition and the dissolution of As-bearing Fe/Mn oxides. Regardless of the salinity source, the released As concentrations consistently exceeded the EPA threshold for drinking water. Our results provide valuable insights for developing appropriate remedial and management strategies for this site and numerous others facing similar environmental challenges. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATION: With nearly two hundred million individuals living within coastal flood plains and with two million square kilometers of land and one trillion dollars' worth of assets lying less than 1 m above current sea level, sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the significant socio-economic threats associated with global warming. Arsenic is a prevalent contaminant in coastal areas impacted by industrial activities, many of which are susceptible to being impacted by SLR. This study examines SLR's impact on arsenic fate and speciation in a densely populated coastline in Wilmington, DE, expecting 1 meter of SLR by 2100.

Vulnerability of tidal morphologies to relative sea-level rise in the Venice Lagoon.

The rise in sea level and land subsidence are seriously threatening the diversity of tidal morphologies that have made the Venice Lagoon such a distinctive landscape. Here, we assess the vulnerability of tidal morphologies to relative sea-level rise based on a new conceptual framework that accounts for both above- and below-sea-level zones, sedimentary architecture, and surface morphology. Around 80 % of the lagoon area will face moderate to severe vulnerability by 2050, doubling compared to the 1990s. While the subtidal zone may be relatively less threatened compared to past conditions, the drastic decline in intertidal morphologies is alarming. This contributes to the flattening and deepening of the lagoon topography and thus to the loss of lagoon landscape diversity, likely leading to a decrease in the ecosystem services the tidal morphologies provide. The interconnection of intertidal and subtidal morphologies is crucial for maintaining the overall health and functionality of the lagoon's ecosystem. Any disruption to one aspect can have ripple effects throughout the entire system.

Rising plant demand strengthens nitrogen limitation in tidal marsh.

Nitrogen (N) is a limiting nutrient for primary productivity in most terrestrial ecosystems, but whether N limitation is strengthening or weakening remains controversial because both N sources and sinks are increasing in magnitude globally. Temperate marshes are exposed to greater amounts of external N inputs than most terrestrial ecosystems and more than in preindustrial times owing to their position downstream of major sources of human-derived N runoff along river mouths and estuaries. Simultaneously, ecosystem N demand may also be increasing owing to other global changes such as rising atmospheric [CO2]. Here, we used interannual variability in external drivers and variables related to exogenous supply of N, along with detailed assessments of plant growth and porewater biogeochemistry, to assess the severity of N-limitation, and to determine its causes, in a 14-year N-addition × elevated CO2 experiment. We found substantial interannual variability in porewater [N], plant growth, and experimental N effects on plant growth, but the magnitude of N pools through time varied independently of the strength of N limitation. Sea level, and secondarily salinity, related closely to interannual variability in growth of the dominant plant functional groups which drove patterns in N limitation and in porewater [N]. Experimental exposure of plants to elevated CO2 and years with high flooding strengthened N limitation for the sedge. Abiotic variables controlled plant growth, which determined the strength of N limitation for each plant species and for ecosystem productivity as a whole. We conclude that in this ecosystem, which has an open N cycle and where N inputs are likely greater than in preindustrial times, plant N demand has increased more than supply.

Fecal Bacteria Contamination of Floodwaters and a Coastal Waterway From Tidally-Driven Stormwater Network Inundation.

Inundation of coastal stormwater networks by tides is widespread due to sea-level rise (SLR). The water quality risks posed by tidal water rising up through stormwater infrastructure (pipes and catch basins), out onto roadways, and back out to receiving water bodies is poorly understood but may be substantial given that stormwater networks are a known source of fecal contamination. In this study, we (a) documented temporal variation in concentrations of Enterococcus spp. (ENT), the fecal indicator bacteria standard for marine waters, in a coastal waterway over a 2-month period and more intensively during two perigean spring tide periods, (b) measured ENT concentrations in roadway floodwaters during tidal floods, and (c) explained variation in ENT concentrations as a function of tidal inundation, antecedent rainfall, and stormwater infrastructure using a pipe network inundation model and robust linear mixed effect models. We find that ENT concentrations in the receiving waterway vary as a function of tidal stage and antecedent rainfall, but also site-specific characteristics of the stormwater network that drains to the waterway. Tidal variables significantly explain measured ENT variance in the waterway, however, runoff drove higher ENT concentrations in the receiving waterway. Samples of floodwaters on roadways during both perigean spring tide events were limited, but all samples exceeded the threshold for safe public use of recreational waters. These results indicate that inundation of stormwater networks by tides could pose public health hazards in receiving water bodies and on roadways, which will likely be exacerbated in the future due to continued SLR.

Salt Water Exposure Exacerbates the Negative Response of Phragmites australis Haplotypes to Sea-Level Rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise (SLR) largely depends on the tolerance of individual plant species to inundation stress and, in brackish and freshwater wetlands, exposure to higher salinities. Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan wetland reed that grows in saline to freshwater marshes. P. australis has many genetically distinct haplotypes, some of which are invasive and the focus of considerable research and management. However, the relative response of P. australis haplotypes to SLR is not well known, despite the importance of predicting future distribution changes and understanding its role in marsh response and resilience to SLR. Here, we use a marsh organ experiment to test how factors associated with sea level rise-inundation and seawater exposure-affect the porewater chemistry and growth response of three P. australis haplotypes along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. We planted three P. australis lineages (Delta, European, and Gulf) into marsh organs at five different elevations in channels at two locations, representing a low (Mississippi River Birdsfoot delta; 0-13 ppt) and high exposure to salinity (Mermentau basin; 6-18 ppt) for two growing seasons. Haplotypes responded differently to flooding and site conditions; the Delta haplotype was more resilient to high salinity, while the Gulf type was less susceptible to flood stress in the freshwater site. Survivorship across haplotypes after two growing seasons was 42% lower at the brackish site than at the freshwater site, associated with high salinity and sulfide concentrations. Flooding greater than 19% of the time led to lower survival across both sites linked to high concentrations of acetic acid in the porewater. Increased flood duration was negatively correlated with live aboveground biomass in the high-salinity site (χ2 = 10.37, p = 0.001), while no such relationship was detected in the low-salinity site, indicating that flood tolerance is greater under freshwater conditions. These results show that the vulnerability of all haplotypes of P. australis to rising sea levels depends on exposure to saline water and that a combination of flooding and salinity may help control invasive haplotypes.

Saltwater intrusion increases phosphorus abundance and alters availability in coastal soils with implications for future sea level rise.

Sea level rise (SLR) promotes saltwater intrusion (SWI) into coastal soils globally at an increasing rate, impacting phosphorus (P) dynamics and adjacent water quality. However, how SWI influences P molecular speciation and availability in coastal soils remains poorly understood. By using a space-for-time substitution strategy, we evaluated the SWI impacts on P transformation along a SWI gradient at the Rehoboth Inland Bay, which consists of five sampling locations along a transect representing different SWI degrees. Soils were analyzed at the macro- and micro-scale using X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES) and the modified Hedley fractionation. With increasing distance from the Bay, soil salinity (29.3-0.07 mmhos cm-1), the proportion of Fe3+ to total Fe, and P concentrations decreased. The fractionation showed that recalcitrant P was dominant (86.9-89.5% of total P). With increasing SWI, labile P increased gradually, reached a plateau, and then decreased sharply. Bulk XANES spectroscopy showed that soil P was likely dominated by iron and aluminum-associated P (Fe/Al-P), regardless of the SWI degree. Hence, with increasing SWI, P increasingly accumulated in a recalcitrant pool, mainly as Fe/Al-P. µ-XANES spectroscopy revealed that calcium-associated P (Ca-P) existed in P-rich spots of the greatest SWI soil while Al-P occurred in P-rich spots of the low SWI soil, consistent with the greater HCl-P (presumably Ca-P) in the former soil. Overall, results demonstrate that SWI impacts P availability and environmental risk in coastal soils depending on the degree of SWI. These findings have important implications for understanding soil P cycling and availability in SLR-impacted coastal areas.