Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China.

Climatic change is a challenge for plant conservation due to plants' limited dispersal abilities. The survival and sustainable development of plants directly depend on the availability of suitable habitats. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to evaluate the relative contribution of each environmental variable and predict the suitable habitat for Alsophila costularis under past, current, and future periods, which is an endangered relict tree fern known as a living fossil. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene scenarios, we adopted two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models: CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM. The BCC-CSM2-MR model was used for future projections. The results revealed that temperature annual range (Bio7) contributed most to the model construction with an optimal range of 13.74-22.44°C. Species distribution modeling showed that current suitable areas were mainly located in most areas of Yunnan, most areas of Hainan, most areas of Taiwan, southeastern Tibet, southwestern Guizhou, western Guangxi, southern Sichuan, and southern Guangdong, with an area of 35.90 × 104 km2. The suitable habitat area expanded northward in Yunnan from the Last Interglacial to the LGM under the CCSM4 model, while a significant contraction toward southwestern Yunnan was found under the MIROC-ESM model. Furthermore, the potential distributions during the Mid-Holocene were more widespread in Yunnan compared to those under current period. It is predicted that in the future, the range will significantly expand to northern Yunnan and western Guizhou. Almost all centroids of suitable habitats were distributed in southeastern Yunnan under different periods. The stable areas were located in southwestern Yunnan in all scenarios. The simulation results could provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of reasonable conservation and management measures to mitigate the effects of future climate change for A. costularis.

Suitable habitat shifts and ecological niche overlay assessments among benthic Oplegnathus species in response to climate change.

Climate change has had a significant impact on many marine organisms. To investigate the effects of environmental changes on deep-water benthic fishes, we selected the genus Oplegnathus and applied species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling. From the last glacial maximum to the present, the three Oplegnathus species (O. conwayi, O. robinsoni, and O. peaolopesi) distributed in the Cape of Good Hope region of southern Africa experienced fitness zone fluctuations of 39.9%, 13%, and 5.7%, respectively. In contrast, O. fasciatus and O. punctatus, which were primarily distributed in the western Pacific Ocean, had fitness zone fluctuations of -6.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither the O. insignis nor the O. woodward varied by more than 5% over the period. Under future environmental conditions, the range of variation in fitness zones for the three southern African Oplegnathus species was expected to be between -30.8% and -26.5%, while the range of variation in fitness zones for the two western Pacific stonefish species was expected to remain below 13%. In addition, the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. insignis was projected to be between -2.3% and 7.1%, and the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. woodward is projected to be between -5.7% and -2%. The results indicated that O. fasciatus and O. punctatus had a wide distribution and high expansion potential, while Oplegnathus species might have originated in western Pacific waters. Our results showed that benthic fishes were highly adaptable to extreme environments, such as the last glacial maximum. The high ecological niche overlap between Oplegnathus species in the same region suggested that they competed with each other. Future research could explore the impacts of environmental change on marine organisms and make conservation and management recommendations.

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China.

Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus Morina (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis. Seventy data of M. kokonorica occurrences and 3 of M. chinensis were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both M. kokonorica and M. chinensis exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for M. kokonorica, and the potential refugia for M. chinensis was located in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of M. chinensis was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of Morina to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.

Foraging habits of Northwest Atlantic hooded seals over the past 30 years: Future habitat suitability under global warming.

The Arctic is a global warming 'hot-spot' that is experiencing rapid increases in air and ocean temperatures and concomitant decreases in sea ice cover. These environmental changes are having major consequences on Arctic ecosystems. All Arctic endemic marine mammals are highly dependent on ice-associated ecosystems for at least part of their life cycle and thus are sensitive to the changes occurring in their habitats. Understanding the biological consequences of changes in these environments is essential for ecosystem management and conservation. However, our ability to study climate change impacts on Arctic marine mammals is generally limited by the lack of sufficiently long data time series. In this study, we took advantage of a unique dataset on hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) movements (and serum samples) that spans more than 30 years in the Northwest Atlantic to (i) investigate foraging (distribution and habitat use) and dietary (trophic level of prey and location) habits over the last three decades and (ii) predict future locations of suitable habitat given a projected global warming scenario. We found that, despite a change in isotopic signatures that might suggest prey changes over the 30-year period, hooded seals from the Northwest Atlantic appeared to target similar oceanographic characteristics throughout the study period. However, over decades, they have moved northward to find food. Somewhat surprisingly, foraging habits differed between seals breeding in the Gulf of St Lawrence vs those breeding at the "Front" (off Newfoundland). Seals from the Gulf favoured colder waters while Front seals favoured warmer waters. We predict that foraging habitats for hooded seals will continue to shift northwards and that Front seals are likely to have the greatest resilience. This study shows how hooded seals are responding to rapid environmental change and provides an indication of future trends for the species-information essential for effective ecosystem management and conservation.

Predicting the potential distribution of 12 threatened medicinal plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with a maximum entropy model.

Climate change is a vital driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area of 12 threatened medicinal plants in the QTP (Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) under the current and future (2050s, 2070s) three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results showed that the climatically suitable habitats for the threatened medicinal plants were primarily found in the eastern, southeast, southern, and some parts of the central regions on the QTP. Moreover, 25% of the threatened medicinal plants would have reduced suitable habitat areas within the next 30-50 years in the different future global warming scenarios. Among these medicinal plants, RT (Rheum tanguticum) would miss the most habitat (98.97%), while the RAN (Rhododendron anthopogonoides) would miss the least habitat (10.15%). Nevertheless, 33.3% of the threatened medicinal plants showed an increase in their future habitat area because of their physiological characteristics which are more adaptable to a wide range of climates. The climatic suitable habitat for 50% of the threatened medicinal plants would migrate to higher altitudes or higher latitudes regions. This study provides a data foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and wild medicinal plants on the QTP.

Comparative analysis of jujube and sour jujube gave insight into their difference in genetic diversity and suitable habitat.

Jujube (Ziziphus jujuba var. jujuba Mill.) and sour jujube (Z. jujuba var. spinosa (Bunge) Hu ex H.F.Chow.) are economically, nutritionally, and ecologically significant members of the Rhamnaceae family. Despite their importance, insufficient research on their genetics and habitats has impeded effective conservation and utilization. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted plastome sequencing, integrated distribution data from China, and assessed genetic diversity and suitable habitat. The plastomes of both species exhibited high conservation and low genetic diversity. A new-found 23 bp species-specific Indel in the petL-petG enabled us to develop a rapid Indel-based identification marker for species discrimination. Phylogenetic analysis and dating illuminated their genetic relationship, showing speciation occurred 6.9 million years ago, in a period of dramatic global temperature fluctuations. Substantial variations in suitable climatic conditions were observed, with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter as the primary factor influencing distributions (-3.16°C-12.73°C for jujube and -5.79°C to 4.11°C for sour jujube, suitability exceeding 0.6). Consequently, distinct conservation strategies are warranted due to differences in suitable habitats, with jujube having a broader distribution and sour jujube concentrated in Northern China. In conclusion, disparate habitats and climatic factors necessitate tailored conservation approaches. Comparing genetic diversity and developing rapid species-specific primers will further enhance the sustainable utilization of these valuable species.

Conservation genetics and potential geographic distribution modeling of Corybas taliensis, a small 'sky Island' orchid species in China.

BACKGROUND: Corybas taliensis is an endemic species of sky islands in China. Its habitat is fragile and unstable, and it is likely that the species is threatened. However, it is difficult to determine the conservation priority or unit without knowing the genetic background and the overall distribution of this species. In this study, we used double digest restriction-site associated DNA-sequencing (ddRAD-seq) to investigate the conservation genomics of C. taliensis. At the same time, we modeled the extent of suitable habitat for C. taliensis in present and future (2030 and 2090) habitat using the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) model. RESULTS: The results suggested that the related C. fanjingshanensis belongs to C. taliensis and should not be considered a separate species. All the sampling locations were divided into three genetic groups: the Sichuan & Guizhou population (SG population), the Hengduan Mountains population (HD population) and Himalayan population (HM population), and we found that there was complex gene flow between the sampling locations of HD population. MT was distinct genetically from the other sampling locations due to the unique environment in Motuo. The genetic diversity (π, He) of C. taliensis was relatively high, but its contemporary effective population size (Ne) was small. C. taliensis might be currently affected by inbreeding depression, although its large population density may be able to reduce the effect of this. The predicted areas of suitable habitat currently found in higher mountains will not change significantly in the future, and these suitable habitats are predicted to spread to other higher mountains under future climate change. However, suitable habitat in relatively low altitude areas may disappear in the future. This suggests that C. taliensis will be caught in a 'summit trap' in low altitude areas, however, in contrast, the high altitude of the Himalaya and the Hengduan Mountains are predicted to act as 'biological refuges' for C. taliensis in the future. CONCLUSIONS: These results not only provide a new understanding of the genetic background and potential resource distribution of C. taliensis, but also lay the foundation for its conservation and management.

Geographical distribution of two major quarantine fruit flies (Bactrocera minax Enderlein and Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel) in Sichuan Basin based on four SDMs.

Both Bactrocera minax and Bactrocera dorsalis are phytophagous insects, and their larvae are latent feeders, which cause great damage and economic losses to agriculture production and trade. This study aimed to provide a scientific reference for researching and developing the feasible countermeasures against these two pests. Based on the distribution data of B. minax and B. dorsalis in China, obtained from the Chinese herbaria, investigation and literature. Four niche models (Garp, Bioclim, Domain, and Maxent) were used to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of both pests and to build prediction models of the potential distribution in Sichuan Basin. Combined with two statistical standards, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa, the validity of prediction models were analyzed and compared. The results show that: the average AUC values of the four models are all above 0.90, and the average Kappa values are all above 0.75, indicating that the four models are suitable for predicting the potential distribution area of B. minax and B. dorsalis. The annual range of temperature, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the mean temperature in the warmest quarter, the annual precipitation, and the precipitation in driest month are the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of B. minax, while the mean diurnal temperature range, the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the seasonal temperature variations and the precipitation in driest month affect the potential distribution of B. dorsalis. The suitable areas for B. minax are mainly concentrated in the eastern of Sichuan Basin, while the suitable areas for B. dorsalis are concentrated in the southeastern. Except for the Bioclim model, the highly-suitable area for both pests predicted by the other three models are all greater than 15.94 × 104 km2 and the moderately-suitable areas are greater than 13.57 × 104 km2. In conclusion, the suitable areas for both pests in Sichuan Basin are quite wide. Therefore, the relevant authorities should be given strengthened monitoring of both pests, especially in areas with high incursion rates.

Predicting current and future potential distributions of the greater bandicoot rat (Bandicota indica) under climate change conditions.

BACKGROUND: Rodent infestation is a global problem. Rodents cause huge harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry around the world and spread various zoonoses. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable habitats of Bandicota indica and predicted the impact of future climate change on its distribution under different socio-economic pathway scenarios of CMIP6 using a parameter-optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. RESULTS: The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value (0.958 ± 0.006) after ten repetitions proved the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Model results show that the annual mean temperature (≥ 15.93 °C), isothermality (28.52-80.49%), annual precipitation (780.13-3863.13 mm), precipitation of the warmest quarter (≥ 204.37 mm), and nighttime light (≥ 3.38) were important limiting environmental variables for the distribution of B. indica. Under current climate conditions, the projected potential suitable habitats for B. indica were mainly in India, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, which cover a total area of 301.70 × 104 km2 . The potentially suitable areas of B. indica in the world will expand under different future climate change scenarios by 1.61-17.65%. CONCLUSIONS: These results validate the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of B. indica and aid in understanding the linkages between B. indica niches and the relevant environment, thereby identifying urgent management areas where interventions may be necessary to develop feasible early warning and prevention strategies to protect against this rodent's spread. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicting the potential distribution range of Batocera horsfieldi under CMIP6 climate change using the MaxEnt model.

Batocera horsfieldi (Hope) (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae, Batocera) is an important wood-boring pest in China, mainly affecting natural forests, economic forests, urban gardens, and green landscapes. In this study, based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, we combined 216 distribution records of B. horsfieldi with 11 selected key environmental variables to predict its potential suitable distribution under current climate data (1970-2000) and 3 climate emission scenarios from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results showed that monthly mean diurnal temperature ranges (bio2), isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15), and altitude were the key environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of B. horsfieldi. In the future scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the areas of high, moderate, and low suitable distribution areas have varied to different extents. However, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (2050s), there is an observable increase in the areas of high, moderate, and low suitability. The total area of the suitable area reaches 160.88 × 104 km2 and is also shifting toward higher latitudes and altitudes. This study provides scientific reference for future pest control by predicting B. horsfieldi's potential distribution. A "graded response" detection and early warning system and prevention and control strategies can be formulated based on the potential suitable areas to address this pest challenge effectively.

Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Rhamnus utilis Decne in China.

BACKGROUND: Rhamnus utilis Decne (Rhamnaceae) is an ecologically and economically important tree species. The growing market demands and recent anthropogenic impacts to R. utilis forests has negatively impacted its populations severely. However, little is known about the potential distribution of this species and environmental factors that affect habitat suitability for this species. By using 219 occurrence records along with 51 environmental factors, present and future suitable habitats were estimated for R. utilis using Maxent modeling; the important environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed. RESULTS: January water vapor pressure, normalized difference vegetation index, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the warmest quarter represented the critical factors explaining the environmental requirements of R. utilis. The potential habitat of R. utilis included most provinces from central to southeast China. Under the climate change scenario SSP 245, Maxent predicted a cumulative loss of ca. 0.73 × 105 km2 in suitable habitat for R. utilis during 2041-2060 while an increase of ca. 0.65 × 105 km2 occurred during 2081-2100. Furthermore, under this climate change scenario, the suitable habitat will geographically expand to higher elevations. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our study provide a foundation for targeted conservation efforts and inform future research on R. utilis. By considering the identified environmental factors and anticipating the potential impacts of climate change, conservation strategies can be developed to preserve and restore suitable habitats for R. utilis. Protecting this species is not only crucial for maintaining biodiversity but also for sustaining the economic benefits associated with its ecological services.

Future habitat changes of Bactrocera minax Enderlein along the Yangtze River Basin using the optimal MaxEnt model.

Background: Bactrocera minax (Enderlein, 1920) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive citrus pest. It is mainly distributed throughout Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangxi in China and is considered to be a second-class pest that is prohibited from entering that country. Climate change, new farming techniques, and increased international trade has caused the habitable area of this pest to gradually expand. Understanding the suitable habitats of B. minax under future climate scenarios may be crucial to reveal the expansion pattern of the insect and develop corresponding prevention strategies in China. Methods: Using on the current 199 distribution points and 11 environmental variables for B. minax, we chose the optimal MaxEnt model to screen the dominant factors that affect the distribution of B. minax and to predict the potential future distribution of B. minax in China under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Results: The current habitat of B. minax is located at 24.1-34.6°N and 101.1-122.9°E, which encompasses the provinces of Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Yunnan (21.64 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable habitat for B. minax may expand significantly toward the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The land coverage of highly suitable habitats may increase from 21.64 × 104 km2 to 26.35 × 104 × 104 km2 (2050s, SSP5-8.5) ~ 33.51 × 104 km2 (2090s, SSP5-8.5). This expansion area accounts for 29% (2050s, SSP1-2.6) to 34.83% (2090s, SSP1-2.6) of the current habitat. The center of the suitable habitat was predicted to expand towards the northeast, and the scenario with a stronger radiative force corresponded to a more marked movement of the center toward higher latitudes. A jackknife test showed that the dominant variables affecting the distribution of B. minax were the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), the annual precipitation (bio12), the mean diurnal range (bio2), the temperature annual range (bio7), and the altitude (alt). Discussion: Currently, it is possible for B. minax to expand its damaging presence. Regions with appropriate climate conditions and distribution of host plants may become potential habitats for the insects, and local authorities should strengthen their detection and prevention strategies. Climate changes in the future may promote the survival and expansion of B. minax species in China, which is represented by the significant increase of suitable habitats toward regions of high altitudes and latitudes across all directions but with some shrinkage in the east and west sides.

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Threatened Fishing Bat Myotis pilosus in China.

Climate change and biodiversity loss are two severe challenges that the world is facing. Studying the distribution shifts of species in response to climate change could provide insights into long-term conservation and biodiversity maintenance. Myotis pilosus is the only known fishing bat in East Asia, whereas its population has been decreasing in recent years and it is listed as a "Vulnerable" species. To assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of M. pilosus, we obtained 33 M. pilosus occurrence records within China where they are mainly distributed, and extracted 30 environmental variables. MaxEnt was applied to assess the habitat suitability, recognize the important environmental variables, predict future distribution changes, and identify the potential future climate refugia. The prediction result based on eleven dominant environmental variables was excellent. The Jackknife test showed that the "minimum temperature of coldest month", "precipitation of wettest quarter", "percent tree cover", and "precipitation of driest month" were the main factors affecting the distribution of M. pilosus. The current suitable areas were predicted to be mainly located in southwest and southeast China with a total area of about 160.54 × 104 km2, accounting for 16.72% of China's land area. Based on the CCSM4, it was predicted that the future (2050 and 2070) suitable areas of M. pilosus will expand and shift to high latitudes and altitudes with global warming, but the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats will be small. Considering the dispersal capacity of M. pilosus, the area of colonized suitable habitats in 2050 and 2070 was predicted to be only ca. 94 × 104 km2 and 155 × 104 km2, respectively. The central and southern parts of Hainan, southern Guangdong, central Guizhou, and southern Beijing were identified as potential climate refugia and could be considered as priority conservation areas for M. pilosus. Thus, we suggest long-term monitoring of the priority conservation areas, especially the areas at high latitudes and altitudes. These results contribute to our knowledge of the possible spatial distribution pattern of M. pilosus under current and future climate scenarios, which is important for the population protection and habitat management of this special piscivorous bat species.

Suitable habitat of Lepidochelys olivacea and the changes under climate change.

As a vulnerable species identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Lepidochelys olivacea has attracted extensive attention in recent years. To examine its current distribution and that under future climate change scenarios, we compiled the occurrence data of L. olivacea. With eight predictor variables, including depth, offshore distance, mean primary productivity, minimum primary productivity, mean sea surface temperature, minimum sea surface temperature, mean sea surface salinity, and minimum sea surface salinity, we predicted its distribution in an ensemble species distribution model. The accuracy of the model was evaluated with the parameters of areas under curves (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS). The results showed that the AUC and TSS values were 0.96 and 0.81, respectively, indicating a good predictive performance of the ensemble model. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the two most important variables determining the distribution of L. olivacea, with the suitable temperature ranging from 23 to 29 ℃ and salinity below 34. The current distribution range of L. olivacea was between 30° N-25° S. Under future climate scenarios, its distribution range would decrease, especially under the RCP85 scenario in the 2100s (with a 28% reduction in the suitable survival range). The results of model validation showed that it had high accuracy and could make accurate predictions of the distribution. This study would provide references for the development of more rational conservation measures and management strategies.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Wild Radish in East Asia.

Climate change can exert a considerable influence on the geographic distribution of many taxa, including coastal plants and populations of some plant species closely related to those used as agricultural crops. East Asian wild radish, Raphanus raphanistrum subsp. sativus, is an annual coastal plant that is a wild relative of the cultivated radish (R. sativus). It has served as source of genetic material that has been helpful to develop and improve the quality and yield of radish crops. To assess the impact of climate change on wild radish in East Asia, we analyzed its distribution at different periods using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results indicated that the precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the two most dominant environmental factors that affected the geographical distribution of wild radish in East Asia. The total potential area suitable for wild radish is 102.5574 × 104 km2, mainly located along the seacoasts of southern China, Korea, and the Japanese archipelago. Compared with its current distribution regions, the potentially suitable areas for wild radish in the 2070s will further increase and expand northwards in Japan, especially on the sand beach habitats of Hokkaido. This research reveals the spatiotemporal changes for the coastal plant wild radish under global warming and simultaneously provides a vital scientific basis for effective utilization and germplasm innovation for radish cultivars to achieve sustainable agriculture development.

Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on future climate change using the MaxEnt model.

Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta are two species of poisonous plants with strong invasiveness in natural grasslands in China that have caused considerable harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about their suitable habitats and the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Although some studies have reported the distributions of poisonous plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and predicted their potential distributions at local scales in some regions under climate change, there have been few studies on the widespread distributions of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta. In this study, we recorded 276 and 118 occurrence points of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta on the QTP using GPS, and then used the MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. Results showed that (1) under current climate conditions, L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are mainly distributed in southern Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northwestern Sichuan, eastern Tibet, and southwestern Yunnan, accounting for approximately 34.9% and 39.8% of the total area of the QTP, respectively; (2) the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are the Human Footprint Index (52.8%, 42.2%), elevation (11%, 4.4%), soil total nitrogen (18.9%, 4.2%), and precipitation seasonality (5.1%, 7.3%); and (3) in the future, in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of habitat of intermediate suitability for L. virgaurea will spread considerably in northwest Sichuan, while that of high suitability for L. sagitta will spread to eastern Tibet and western Sichuan.

Buchanania cochinchinensis (Lour.) M.R. Almedia habitat exhibited robust adaptability to diverse socioeconomic scenarios in eastern India.

One of the greatest challenges to ecosystems is the rapidity of climate change, and their ability to adjust swiftly will be constrained. Climate change will disrupt the ecological balances, causing species to track suitable habitats for survival. Consequently, understanding the species' response to climate change is crucial for its conservation and management, and for enhancing biodiversity through effective management. This research intends to examine the response of the vulnerable Buchanania cochinchinensis species to climate change. We modeled the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for the present and future climatic scenario proxies based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), i.e. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585. Maxent was used to simulate the potential habitats of B. cochinchinensis. The study found that ~28,313 km2 (~10.7% of the study area) was a potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis for the current scenario. The majority of the suitable habitat area ~25,169 km2 occurred in the central and southern parts of the study area. The future projection shows that the suitable habitat to largely increase in the range of 10.5-20% across all the SSPs, with a maximum gain of ~20% for SSP 126. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_08) was the most influential contributing variable in limiting the distribution of B. cochinchinensis. The majority of the suitable habitat area occurred in the vegetation landscape. The study shows a southward shifting of B. cochinchinensis habitat by 2050. The phytosociological analysis determined B. cochinchinensis as Shorea robusta's primary associate. Our research provides significant insight into the prospective distribution scenario of B. cochinchinensis habitat and its response to diverse socioeconomic scenarios, and offers a solid foundation for management of this extremely important species.

[Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Haemphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province based on the maximum entropy model].

OBJECTIVE: To predict the potential suitable habitat of Haemaphysalis concinna in Heilongjiang Province under different climatic scenarios. METHODS: The geographic locations of ticks in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2022 were captured from literature review and field ticks monitoring data from Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Heilongjiang Province, and the tick distribution sites with spatial correlations were removed using the software ArcGIS 10.2. The environment data under historical climatic scenarios from 1970 to 2000 and the climatic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126 scenario model from 2021 to 2040 and from 2041 to 2060 were downloaded from the WorldClim website, and the elevation (1 km, 2010), population (1 km grid population dataset of China, 2010) and annual vegetation index (1 km, 2010) data were downloaded from the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The contribution of environmental factors to H. concinna distribution was evaluated and environmental variables were screened using the software MaxEnt 3.4.1 and R package 4.1.0, and the areas of suitable habitats of H. concinna and changes in center of gravity were analyzed using the maximum entropy model in Heilongjiang Province under different climatic scenarios. In addition, the accuracy of the maximum entropy model for prediction of H. concinna distribution was assessed using the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: A total of 79 H. concinna distribution sites and 24 environmental variables were collected, and 70 H. concinna distribution sites and 9 environmental factors that contributed to distribution of the potential suitable habitats of H. concinna in Heilongjiang Province were screened. The three most significant contributing factors included precipitation seasonality, annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter, with cumulative contributions of 60.7%. The total area of suitable habitats of H. concinna was 29.05 × 104 km2 in Heilongjiang Province under historical climatic scenarios, with the center of gravity of suitable habitats located at (47.31° N, 129.16° E), while the total area of suitable habitats of H. concinna reduced by 0.97 × 104 km2 in Heilongjiang Province under the climatic SSP126 scenario from 2041 to 2060, with the center of gravity shifting to (47.70° N, 129.28° E). CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of suitable habitats of H. concinna strongly correlates with temperature and humidity in Heilongjiang Province. The total area of potential suitable habitats of H. concinna may appear a tendency towards a decline with climatic changes in Heilongjiang Province, and high-, medium- and low-suitable habitats may shift.

Prediction of the Current and Future Distribution of Tomato Leafminer in China Using the MaxEnt Model.

Tomato leafminer (Tuta absoluta), an important quarantine pest in China, was first detected in China in Yili, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in 2017. Its damage has grown in recent years, severely harming Solanaceae plants in China and causing enormous economic losses. The study and prediction of the current and future suitable habitats for tomato leafminer in China can provide an important reference for the monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control of the pest. Here, tomato leafminer's potential distributions in China under the current climate and four future climate models (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with ArcGIS software, and the accuracy of the prediction results was tested. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the models were all greater than 0.8, and the test omission rate of the model simulation results basically agreed with the theoretical omission rate, suggesting that the prediction results had satisfactory accuracy and reliability. Under the current climatic conditions, the highly suitable habitats for tomato leafminer in China are mainly distributed in most of North China, most of East China, most of South China, most of Central China, most of Southwest China, some parts of Northeast China, and only a few parts of Northwest China. Annual mean temperature is the main environmental factor limiting the distribution. The suitable habitats for tomato leafminer will shift under different future climate models: Under SSP1-26, the highly suitable habitats will spread to the north and northeast and to the southeast coastal areas; under SSP2-45, the size of highly suitable habitats will grow from the present to 2080 and shrink from 2081 to 2100; under SSP3-70, the highly suitable habitats will spread northeastwards, but the highly suitable habitats in southeast coastal areas will shrink from 2081 to 2100 and turn into moderately suitable habitats. Under SSP5-85, the highly suitable habitats will spread northeastwards and northwestwards, with the size of highly suitable habitats gradually decreasing and the size of moderately suitable habitats increasing. Different climates will lead to different distributions of suitable habitats for tomato leafminer, with annual mean temperature, isothermality, and mean diurnal range as the main environmental influences.

Environmental predictors may change at fine scale habitat suitability modelling: implications for conservation of Kashmir musk deer in three protected areas of Uttarakhand, India.

The Kashmir musk deer (Moschus cupreus, hereafter KMD) is one of the top conservation priority species which is facing population decline due to poaching, habitat loss, and climate change. Therefore, the long-term survival and viability of KMD populations in their natural habitat require conservation and management of suitable habitats. Hence, the present study attempted to assess the suitable habitat of KMD in three protected areas (PAs) of the Western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand using the Maxent modelling algorithm. Our results suggest that Kedarnath wildlife sanctuary (KWLS) possesses the maximum highly suitable habitats (22.55%) of KMD, followed by Govind Pashu Vihar National Park & Sanctuary (GPVNP&S; 8.33%) and Gangotri National Park (GNP; 5%). Among the environmental variables, altitude was the major contributing factor governing the distribution of KMD in KWLS. In contrast, human footprint in GPVNP&S and precipitation in GNP were the major contributing factors governing the distribution of KMD in these respective PAs. The response curve indicated that habitats with less disturbance falling in the altitudinal zone of 2000-4000 m were the most suitable habitat range for the distribution of KMD in all three PAs. However, in the case of GNP suitable habitat of KMD increases with an increase in the value of variables bio_13 (precipitation of wettest month). Further, based on our results, we believe that the predictors of suitable habitat change are site specific and cannot be generalized in the entire distribution range of the species. Therefore, the present study will be helpful in making proper habitat management actions at fine scale for the conservation of KMD.