Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti.

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

A retrospective study on cholera understanding and WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) behavior among adolescents in three regions of La Gonâve, Haiti.

BACKGROUNDS: This study assesses the impact of Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) interventions on cholera understanding and hygiene practices in La Gonâve Island, Haiti. It examines the changes after implementing interventions in seven villages across the Downtown, Mountain, and Seaside regions. METHODS: A retrospective investigation surveyed 210 school students from each region using a validated questionnaire. It assessed knowledge, attitudes, practices (KAP), and environmental aspects related to cholera and hygiene. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics and chi-square tests. RESULTS: The study highlights significant disparities in education levels, toilet ownership, and healthcare access. Challenges in finding public toilets (86.67%) and accessing water sources (67.78%) are consistent across regions, with Seaside facing financial constraints (85.00%) and water cost concerns (91.67%). Attitudes toward hygiene vary, with the Mountain region having the highest 'Never' responses for handwashing (38.89%), and Downtown leading in water treatment practices (11.67%). There is a strong willingness to share health knowledge, particularly in Downtown (100.00%). Seaside (83.33%) and Downtown (73.33%) revealed a higher cholera awareness, while nearly half of Mountain students lacked knowledge (54.44%). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights significant disparities in WASH practices among La Gonâve's adolescents in Downtown, Mountain, and Seaside regions. Urgent interventions are crucial for improving sanitation, ensuring clean water access, and implementing targeted hygiene education, especially in the resource-constrained Mountain and Seaside areas. The findings underscore the vital roles of adolescents and schools in disseminating knowledge, with further research needed to explore intervention differences.

Effectiveness of the Euvichol® oral cholera vaccine at 2 years: A case-control and bias-indicator study in Haiti.

OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization recommends the use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in cholera control efforts. Euvichol®, pre-qualified in 2015, is the leading component of the Global OCV stockpile, but data on its field effectiveness are limited. To evaluate Euvichol® vaccine effectiveness (VE), we conducted a case-control study between September 2018 to March 2020 following an OCV campaign in November 2017 in Haiti. METHODS: Cases were individuals with acute watery diarrhea. Stool samples were tested by culture and real-time polymerase chain reaction of the Vibrio cholerae ctxA gene. Cases were matched to four community controls without diarrhea by residence, enrollment time, age, and gender, and interviewed for sociodemographics, risk factors, and self-reported vaccination. Cholera cases were analyzed by conditional logistic regression in the VE study. Non-cholera diarrhea cases were analyzed in a bias-indicator study. RESULTS: We enrolled 15 cholera cases matched to 60 controls, and 63 non-cholera diarrhea cases matched to 249 controls. In the VE analysis, eight (53%) cases reported vaccination with any number of doses compared to 43 (72%) controls. Adjusted two-dose OCV VE was 69% (95% CI -71 to 94%). CONCLUSIONS: Between 10-27 months after vaccination, Euvichol® was effective and similar to Shanchol™, suggesting that it can serve as one component of multi-sectoral comprehensive cholera control.

Ancestral Origin and Dissemination Dynamics of Reemerging Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae, Haiti.

The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was thought to have ended in 2019, and the Prime Minister of Haiti declared the country cholera-free in February 2022. On September 25, 2022, cholera cases were again identified in Port-au-Prince. We compared genomic data from 42 clinical Vibrio cholerae strains from 2022 with data from 327 other strains from Haiti and 1,824 strains collected worldwide. The 2022 isolates were homogeneous and closely related to clinical and environmental strains circulating in Haiti during 2012-2019. Bayesian hypothesis testing indicated that the 2022 clinical isolates shared their most recent common ancestor with an environmental lineage circulating in Haiti in July 2018. Our findings strongly suggest that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 can persist for years in aquatic environmental reservoirs and ignite new outbreaks. These results highlight the urgent need for improved public health infrastructure and possible periodic vaccination campaigns to maintain population immunity against V. cholerae.

Seroprevalence of Vibrio cholerae in Adults, Haiti, 2017.

In Haiti in 2017, the prevalence of serum vibriocidal antibody titers against Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 among adults was 12.4% in Cerca-la-Source and 9.54% in Mirebalais, suggesting a high recent prevalence of infection. Improved surveillance programs to monitor cholera and guide public health interventions in Haiti are necessary.

Population-Based Serologic Survey of Vibrio cholerae Antibody Titers before Cholera Outbreak, Haiti, 2022.

A Vibrio cholerae O1 outbreak emerged in Haiti in October 2022 after years of cholera absence. In samples from a 2021 serosurvey, we found lower circulating antibodies against V. cholerae lipopolysaccharide in children <5 years of age and no vibriocidal antibodies, suggesting high susceptibility to cholera, especially among young children.

Las epidemias de cólera en Argentina. Breve reseña histórica / The cholera epidemics in Argentina. Brief historical review

El cólera es una toxoinfección alimentaria ocasionada por la ingesta de agua y alimentos contaminados por el Vibrio cholerae. Es una de las enfermedades más antiguas de la humanidad y las primeras descripciones corresponden a Hipócrates. La primera epidemia documentada, sucedió en la India en 1817 y se extendió a Turquía y a los países árabes. En nuestro país, el primer brote ocurrió en 1856 en la ciudad de Bahía Blanca, asociada a la llegada de navíos con enfermos y a las deficientes condiciones sanitarias de la ciudad. Los sucesivos brotes se acompañaron de una alta mortalidad, a tal punto que el Dr. José María Penna señaló que costó más vidas a la nación que la guerra con Paraguay. En el presente artículo se analizan los sucesivos brotes de cólera en nuestro país

Cholera is a food poisoning caused by the ingestion of food and water contaminated by Vibrio cholerae. It is one of the oldest diseases of humanity and the first descriptions correspond to Hippocrates. The first documented epidemic occurred in India in 1817 and spread to Turkey and the Arab countries. In our country, the first outbreak occurred in 1856 in the city of Bahía Blanca, associated with the arrival of ships with patients and poor sanitary conditions in the city. The successive outbreaks were accompanied by high mortality, to the point that Dr. José María Penna pointed out that it cost the nation more lives than the war with Paraguay. This article analyzes the successive outbreaks of cholera in our country

Molecular Basis of the Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 Serotype Switch from Ogawa to Inaba in Haiti.

Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa was introduced involuntarily into Haiti in October 2010, and virtually all of the clinical strains isolated during the first 5 years of the epidemic were Ogawa. Inaba strains were identified intermittently prior to 2015, with diverse mutations resulting in a common phenotype. In 2015, the percentage of clinical infections due to the Inaba serotype began to rapidly increase, with Inaba supplanting Ogawa as the dominant serotype during the subsequent 4 years. We investigated the molecular basis of the serotype switch and confirmed that all Inaba strains had the same level of mRNA expression of the wbeT genes, as well as the same translation levels for the truncated WbeT proteins in the V. cholerae Inaba isolates. Neither wbeT gene expression levels, differential mutations, or truncation size of the WbeT proteins appeared to be responsible for the successful Inaba switch in 2015. Our phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that the V. cholerae Inaba strains in Haiti evolved directly from Ogawa strains and that a significant increase of diversifying selection at the population level occurred at the time of the Ogawa-Inaba switch. We conclude that the emergence of the Inaba serotype was driven by diversifying selection, independent of the mutational pattern in the wbeT gene. IMPORTANCE Our phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that Vibrio cholerae Inaba strains in Haiti evolved directly from Ogawa strains. Our results support the hypothesis that after an initial Ogawa-dominated epidemic wave, V. cholerae Inaba was able to become the dominant strain thanks to a selective advantage driven by ongoing diversifying selection, independently from the mutational pattern in the wbeT gene.

Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Vibrio cholerae in Cuba: July 1997-December 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Vibrio cholerae is a microorganism that causes acute diarrheal diseases and cholera, one of the leading causes of global morbidity and mortality, especially in children under five years old. It is present in many regions and has been isolated from diverse sources such as water, soil and food. Surveillance of this microorganism in Cuba from 1985 through June 1997 showed circulation of non-epidemic non-O1/non-O139 serogroups, but surveillance continued to identify distribution of V. cholerae serotypes and serogroups in the different geographic regions of the country during the following years, due to the risk of introducing cholera-causing serogroups that provoked cholera epidemics in other countries of the region. OBJECTIVE: Describe the temporal‒spatial distribution of serogroups and serotypes of V. cholerae in Cuba. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted that included isolates from passive surveillance of V. cholerae in 16 hygiene and epidemiology centers throughout Cuba from July 1997 through December 2019, submitted to the National Reference Laboratory for Acute Diarrheal Diseases of the Pedro Kourí Tropical Medicine Institute in Havana, Cuba. The timeline was subdivided into three five-year periods and one eight-year period. The centers submitting isolates were grouped into three geographical regions: western, central and eastern Cuba. A total of 1060 V. cholerae isolates were studied, from the 1438 samples sent from 15 Provincial Hygiene, Epidemiology and Microbiology Centers and the Municipal Hygiene, Epidemiology and Microbiology Center of the Isle of Youth Special Municipality. Genus, species and serotype of all specimens were studied and reviewed in the context of the outbreaks of acute diarrheal diseases reported in the country. RESULTS: All 1060 isolates were confirmed as V. cholerae. In the distribution by time period and region, the highest percentage occurred in the 2012‒2019 period, and the eastern region contributed the most isolates in all periods. Approximately 63.9% (677/1060) were from outbreaks, and in the 2012‒2019 period, the most epidemic-causing isolates came from the western region. Approximately 52.8% (560/1060) were identified as non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae, and 47.2% (500/1060) as O1 V. cholerae; of these, 96.4% (482/500) corresponded to Ogawa serotype and 3.6% (18/500) to Inaba. Circulation of non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae occurred throughout the entire period. The O1 serogroup began to circulate in 2012 and continued through 2016; however, since 2017, it has not been identified again. In the western region, there were smaller percentages of isolates of non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae in all periods, except 2012‒2019. In that period, V. cholerae O1 was identified to a lesser degree in the central region. CONCLUSIONS: Vibrio cholerae circulated in all three Cuban regions during the years studied, with a higher percentage of isolates of the non-O1/non-O139 serogroup, which caused outbreaks or sporadic cases of diarrhea in the eastern region, with the exception of the 2012‒2019 period, when epidemic outbreaks of the O1 serogroup (which causes cholera) occurred in all three regions, with higher percentages in the western region.

Altered molecular attributes and antimicrobial resistance patterns of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains isolated from the cholera endemic regions of India.

AIMS: The present study aimed to document the comparative analysis of differential hypervirulent features of Vibrio cholerae O1 strains isolated during 2018 from cholera endemic regions in Gujarat and Maharashtra (Western India) and West Bengal (Eastern India). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 87 V. cholerae O1 clinical strains from Western India and 48 from Eastern India were analysed for a number of biotypic and genotypic features followed by antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profile. A novel polymerase chain reaction was designed to detect a large fragment deletion in the Vibrio seventh pandemic island II (VSP-II) genomic region, which is a significant genetic feature of the V. cholerae strains that have caused Yemen cholera outbreak. All the strains from Western India belong to the Ogawa serotype, polymyxin B-sensitive, hemolytic, had a deletion in VSP-II (VSP-IIC) region and carried Haitian genetic alleles of ctxB, tcpA and rtxA. Conversely, 14.6% (7/48) of the strains from Eastern India belonged to the Inaba serotype, polymyxin B-resistant, nonhemolytic, harboured VSP-II other than VSP-IIC type, classical ctxB, Haitian tcpA and El Tor rtxA alleles. Resistance to tetracycline and chloramphenicol has been observed in strains from both regions. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed hypervirulent, polymyxin B-sensitive epidemic causing strains in India along with the strains with polymyxin B-resistant and nonhemolytic traits that may spread and cause serious disease outcomes in future. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The outcomes of this study can help to improve the understanding of the hyperpathogenic property of recently circulating pandemic Vibrio cholerae strains in India. Special attention is also needed for the monitoring of AMR surveillance because V. cholerae strains are losing susceptibility to many antibiotics used as a second line of defence in the treatment of cholera.

Cholera in Haiti.

The cholera epidemic that hit Haiti from October 2010 to February 2019 was the world's deadliest of the last 25 years. Officially, the successive waves caused 9789 deaths, although numerous additional casualties could not be recorded. The origin of this epidemic has been the subject of a controversy involving two opposing theories. The first hypothesis, put forward by renowned American academics, was that the cholera epidemic originated from the environment, due to the proliferation and transmission of aquatic Vibrio cholerae bacteria driven by a confluence of circumstances, i.e., the earthquake followed by a hot summer and, ultimately, heavy rainfall and flooding. The alternative hypothesis, which was subsequently confirmed by epidemiological and genomic studies, attributed the epidemic to the recent importation of cholera by UN peacekeepers recently arrived from Nepal, and to a river polluted with sewage. In late 2016, the Secretary General of the United Nations finally begged the Haitian people for forgiveness. This implicit recognition of the role of the UN in the cholera epidemic helped to fund the ongoing fight against it. Case-area targeted interventions aimed at interrupting cholera transmission were reinforced, which resulted in the extinction of the epidemic within two years. In the meantime, several phylogenetic studies on Vibrio cholerae during the seventh cholera pandemic demonstrated that local environmental and global epidemic Vibrio populations were distinct. These studies also showed that epidemics arose when the bacterium had diversified and that it had spread during transmission events associated with human travel.