Abrogation of the RNase activity of Erns in a low virulence classical swine fever virus enhances the humoral immune response and reduces virulence, transmissibility, and persistence in pigs.

The prevalence of low virulence classical swine fever virus (CSFV) strains makes viral eradication difficult in endemic countries. However, the determinants for natural CSFV attenuation and persistence in the field remain unidentified. The aim of the present study was to assess the role of the RNase activity of CSFV Erns in pathogenesis, immune response, persistent infection, and viral transmission in pigs. To this end, a functional cDNA clone pPdR-H30K-36U with an Erns lacking RNase activity was constructed based on the low virulence CSFV field isolate Pinar de Rio (PdR). Eighteen 5-day-old piglets were infected with vPdR-H30K-36U. Nine piglets were introduced as contacts. The vPdR-H30K-36U virus was attenuated in piglets compared to the parental vPdR-36U. Only RNA traces were detected in sera and body secretions and no virus was isolated from tonsils, showing that RNase inactivation may reduce CSFV persistence and transmissibility. The vPdR-H30K-36U mutant strongly activated the interferon-α (IFN-α) production in plasmacytoid dendritic cells, while in vivo, the IFN-α response was variable, from moderate to undetectable depending on the animal. This suggests a role of the CSFV Erns RNase activity in the regulation of innate immune responses. Infection with vPdR-H30K-36U resulted in higher antibody levels against the E2 and Erns glycoproteins and in enhanced neutralizing antibody responses when compared with vPdR-36U. These results pave the way toward a better understanding of viral attenuation mechanisms of CSFV in pigs. In addition, they provide novel insights relevant for the development of DIVA vaccines in combination with diagnostic assays for efficient CSF control.

Analysis of Virus Population Profiles within Pigs Infected with Virulent Classical Swine Fever Viruses: Evidence for Bottlenecks in Transmission but Absence of Tissue-Specific Virus Variants.

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) contains a specific motif within the E2 glycoprotein that differs between strains of different virulence. In the highly virulent CSFV strain Koslov, this motif comprises residues S763/L764 in the polyprotein. However, L763/P764 represent the predominant alleles in published CSFV genomes. In this study, changes were introduced into the CSFV strain Koslov (here called vKos_SL) to generate modified CSFVs with substitutions at residues 763 and/or 764 (vKos_LL, vKos_SP, and vKos_LP). The properties of these mutant viruses, in comparison to those of vKos_SL, were determined in pigs. Each of the viruses was virulent and induced typical clinical signs of CSF, but the vKos_LP strain produced them significantly earlier. Full-length CSFV cDNA amplicons (12.3 kb) derived from sera of infected pigs were deep sequenced and cloned to reveal the individual haplotypes that contributed to the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles observed in the virus population. The SNP profiles for vKos_SL and vKos_LL displayed low-level heterogeneity across the entire genome, whereas vKos_SP and vKos_LP displayed limited diversity with a few high-frequency SNPs. This indicated that vKos_SL and vKos_LL exhibited a higher level of fitness in the host and more stability at the consensus level, whereas several consensus changes were observed in the vKos_SP and vKos_LP sequences, pointing to adaptation. For each virus, only a subset of the variants present within the virus inoculums were maintained in the infected pigs. No clear tissue-dependent quasispecies differentiation occurred within inoculated pigs; however, clear evidence for transmission bottlenecks to contact animals was observed, with subsequent loss of sequence diversity.IMPORTANCE The surface-exposed E2 protein of classical swine fever virus is required for its interaction with host cells. A short motif within this protein varies between strains of different virulence. The importance of two particular amino acid residues in determining the properties of a highly virulent strain of the virus has been analyzed. Each of the different viruses tested proved highly virulent, but one of them produced earlier, but not more severe, disease. By analyzing the virus genomes present within infected pigs, it was found that the viruses which replicated within inoculated animals were only a subset of those within the virus inoculum. Furthermore, following contact transmission, it was shown that a very restricted set of viruses had transferred between animals. There were no significant differences in the virus populations present in various tissues of the infected animals. These results indicate mechanisms of virus population change during transmission between animals.

Estimation of infection risk on pig farms in infected wild boar areas-Epidemiological analysis for the reemergence of classical swine fever in Japan in 2018.

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after 26 years' absence. The first case was detected at a pig farm in Gifu Prefecture, in the center of Japan, and the disease spread to both domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa). The spread of CSF in wild boar is extremely difficult to control and is thus a great threat to domestic pig farms, and understanding the transmission risk from wild boar to domestic pigs is essential to implement effective control measures that will prevent domestic pig infection. Therefore, this study elucidates the transmission risk from wild boar to domestic pigs by introducing a transmission kernel that is dependent on the distance between infected wild boar and pig farms, and then estimating the risk area of infection from wild boar by describing the transmission probability. The study used epidemiological data from Gifu Prefecture in the period from September 2018 to March 2019, including a total of 171 1-km grid cells where an infected wild boar was detected and pig farm data from 13 infected and 34 uninfected farms. The estimated infection risk area within 28 days matched well with the observed data. The risk area widened gradually during the epidemic, and at the end of March, the risk area extended over a range of approximately 75 km from east to west and 40 km from north to south (almost 3000 km2). Ten out of the 13 infected farms and four out of the 34 uninfected farms were located within the high-risk area (>60 % infection probability). In contrast, one infected farm and 18 uninfected farms were located within the low-risk area (<5 % infection probability). When several infected grid cells were detected within 5 km of a pig farm, the risk of infection from wild boar within 28 days was more than 5 %. This analysis provides an estimate of the potential spatial range over which CSF virus can spread between wild boar and domestic pig farms, and can be used to inform the early detection of CSF-suspected pigs and the strengthening of biosecurity measures that will effectively prevent and control the disease based on the infection risk level.

Experimental infection of pigs with a classical swine fever virus isolated in Japan for the first time in 26 years.

Following an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) in Japan, 2018, CSFV JPN/1/2018 was isolated from an infected pig sample. In this study, we carried out a comparative experimental infection in pigs using this strain and the highly virulent ALD strain and compared outcomes, including clinical manifestation, virus shedding patterns and antibody responses. Although pigs inoculated orally or intramuscularly with JPN/1/2018 developed hyperthermia and had decreased leucocyte numbers, they survived for the whole experimental period and showed less severe clinical signs than those infected with the ALD strain. We confirmed the presence of characteristic multifocal infarction of the margin of the spleen that arises following infection with JPN/1/2018, albeit that this finding was not observed in all infected pigs. Both viruses efficiently spread to contact pigs in a similar manner, suggesting in transmissibility between the two strains. Viral RNAs were detected in all clinical samples, especially whole blood samples, before the pigs developed hyperthermia until at least approximately 2 weeks after inoculation. Our findings will be valuable for the investigations into epidemic events occurring in Japan and for establishing diagnostic strategies and control measures against CSF.

Could African swine fever and classical swine fever viruses enter into the United States via swine products carried in air passengers' luggage?

On average 8,000 pork derived products are annually confiscated by Customs and Border Protection at the United States (US) ports of entry such as international airports, harbours or mail offices. These swine products with unknown sanitary status could pose a risk for foreign animal diseases introduction into the US. This study aimed at analysing the risk of African swine fever virus (ASFV) and classical swine fever virus (CSFV) being introduced into the US through prohibited swine products carried by air passengers (PSPAP) and identifying locations and time periods at higher risk where and when preventive and mitigation measures should be implemented. Our results estimated that the risk for CSFV entry was seven times higher and further spread between US airports than for ASFV. Specifically, the overall mean annual probability of ASFV entry was estimated as 0.061 at 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.007, 0.216] while the probability of CSFV entry was estimated as 0.414 (95% CI [0.074, 1]). For both diseases, July and May were the months at highest risk for entry. For ASFV, the origin countries of those PSPAP that represented the highest risk (above 70% of the total risk) were Ghana, Cape Verde, Ethiopia and the Russian Federation, while for CSFV above 90% of the risk at origin was concentrated in the Dominican Republic and Cuba, followed by India, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and China. These results could be used to implement and feed real time surveillance systems, which could potentially help customs to increase the detection rate of smuggled products, indicating when and where to look for them. Similarly, these systems could be adapted and implemented to other diseases improving the cost-effectiveness of the resources invested in preventing entrance of diseases via air passengers' luggage.

Classical swine fever in India: current status and future perspective.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a globally significant disease of swine caused by classical swine fever virus. The virus affects the wild boars and pigs of all age groups, leading to acute, chronic, late-onset or in-apparent course of the disease. The disease causes great economic loss to the piggery industry due to mortality, stunted growth, poor reproductive performance, and by impeding the international trade of pig and pig products. In India, CSF outbreaks are reported from most of the states wherever pig rearing is practiced and more frequently from northeast states. In spite of the highly devastating nature and frequent outbreaks, CSF remained underestimated and neglected for decades in India. The country requires rapid and sensitive diagnostic tests for an early detection of infection to limit the spread of the disease. Also, effective prophylactics are required to help in control and eradication of the disease for the development of the piggery industry. This review looks into the economic impact; epidemiology of CSF highlighting the temporal and spatial occurrence of outbreaks in the last two decades, circulation, and emergence of the virus genotypes in and around the country; and the constraints in the disease control, with the aim to update the knowledge of current status of the disease in India. The article also emphasizes the importance of the disease and the need to develop rapid specific diagnostics and effective measures to eradicate the disease.

Antigenic characterization of classical swine fever virus YC11WB isolates from wild boar.

Classical swine fever (CSF), a highly contagious disease that affects domestic pigs and wild boar, has serious economic implications. The present study examined the virulence and transmission of CSF virus strain YC11WB (isolated from a wild boar in 2011) in breeding wild boar. Virulence of strain YC11WB in domestic pigs was also examined. Based on the severe clinical signs and high mortality observed among breeding wild boar, the pathogenicity of strain YC11WB resembled that of typical acute CSF. Surprisingly, in contrast to strain SW03 (isolated from breeding pigs in 2003), strain YC11WB showed both acute and strong virulence in breeding pigs. None of three specific monoclonal antibodies (7F2, 7F83, and 6F65) raised against the B/C domain of the SW03 E2 protein bound to the B/C domain of strain YC11WB due to amino acid mutations (720K→R and 723N→S) in the YC11WB E2 protein. Although strains YC11WB and SW03 belong to subgroup 2.1b, they had different mortality rates in breeding pigs. Thus, if breeding pigs have not developed protective immunity against CSF virus, they may be susceptible to strain YC11WB transmitted by wild boar, resulting in severe economic losses for the pig industry.

A Simulation Model to Determine Sensitivity and Timeliness of Surveillance Strategies.

Animal surveillance systems need regular evaluation. We developed an easily applicable simulation model of the German wild boar population to investigate two evaluation attributes: the sensitivity and timeliness (i.e. the ability to detect a disease outbreak rapidly) of a surveillance system. Classical swine fever (CSF) was used as an example for the model. CSF is an infectious disease that may lead to massive economic losses. It can affect wild boar as well as domestic pigs, and CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs have been linked to infections in wild boar. Awareness of the CSF status in wild boar is therefore vital. Our non-epidemic simulation model is based on real data and evaluates the currently implemented German surveillance system for CSF in wild boar. The results show that active surveillance for CSF fulfils the requirements of detecting an outbreak with 95% confidence within one year after the introduction of CSF into the wild boar population. Nevertheless, there is room for improved performance and efficiency by more homogeneous (active and passive) sampling of wild boar over the year. Passive surveillance alone is not sufficient to meet the requirements for detecting the infection. Although CSF was used as example to develop the model, it may also be applied to the evaluation of other surveillance systems for viral diseases in wild boar. It is also possible to compare sensitivity and timeliness across hypothetical alternative or risk-based surveillance strategies.

Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.

Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics.

Multicriteria Evaluation of Classical Swine Fever Control Strategies Using the Choquet Integral.

An outbreak of the highly contagious animal disease classical swine fever (CSF) requires the selection of an optimal control strategy. The choice of a control strategy is a decision process depending on different aspects. Besides epidemiology, economic and ethical/social aspects must be taken into account. In this study, multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was used to evaluate six control strategies for two regions with different farm densities. A strategy including only the minimum EU control measures and the traditional control strategy based on preventive culling were compared to alternative control strategies using emergency vaccination and/or rapid PCR testing ('emergency vaccination', 'test to slaughter', 'test to control' and 'vaccination in conjunction with rapid testing'). The MACBETH approach was used in order to assess the three main criteria (epidemiology, economics and ethical/social aspects). Subcriteria with both quantitative and qualitative performance levels were translated into a normalized scale. The Choquet integral approach was adopted to obtain a ranking of the six CSF control strategies based on the three main criteria, taking interactions into account. Three different rankings of the importance of the main criteria, which were to reflect the potential perceptions of stakeholders, were examined. Both the region under investigation and the ranking of the main criteria had an influence on the 'best' choice. Alternative control strategies were favourable to the minimum EU control and the traditional control measures independent of the farm density. Because the choice of the 'best' control strategy does not solely depend on the epidemiological efficiency, MCDM can help to find the best solution. Both MACBETH and the Choquet integral approach are feasible MCDM approaches. MACBETH only needs a qualitative evaluation and is therefore a comparatively intuitive approach. The Choquet integral does not only take the importance of the criteria into account but also the interaction between them.

Course and transmission characteristics of oral low-dose infection of domestic pigs and European wild boar with a Caucasian African swine fever virus isolate.

In 2007, African swine fever virus (ASFV) was introduced into the Transcaucasian countries and Russia. Since then, it has spread alarmingly and reached the European Union. ASFV strains are highly virulent and lead to almost 100% mortality under experimental conditions. However, the possibility of dose-dependent disease courses has been discussed. For this reason, a study was undertaken to assess the risk of chronic disease and the establishment of carriers upon low-dose oronasal infection of domestic pigs and European wild boar. It was demonstrated that very low doses of ASFV are sufficient to infect especially weak or runted animals by the oronasal route. Some of these animals did not show clinical signs indicative of ASF, and they developed almost no fever. However, no changes were observed in individual animal regarding the onset, course and outcome of infection as assessed by diagnostic tests. After amplification of ASFV by these animals, pen- and stablemates became infected and developed acute lethal disease with similar characteristics in all animals. Thus, we found no indication of prolonged or chronic individual courses upon low-dose infection in either species. The scattered onset of clinical signs and pathogen detection within and among groups confirms moderate contagiosity that is strongly linked with blood contact. In conclusion, the prolonged course at the "herd level" together with the exceptionally low dose that proved to be sufficient to infect a runted wild boar could be important for disease dynamics in wild-boar populations and in backyard settings.

A description of smallholder pig production systems in eastern Indonesia.

Pig farming is a common practice among smallholder farmers in Nusa Tenggara Timur province (NTT), eastern Indonesia. To understand their production systems a survey of smallholder pig farmers was conducted. Eighteen villages were randomly selected across West Timor, Flores and Sumba islands, and 289 pig farmers were interviewed. Information on pig management, biosecurity practices, pig movements and knowledge of pig health and disease, specifically classical swine fever was collected. The mean number of pigs per herd was 5.0 (not including piglets), and total marketable herd size (pigs≥two months of age) did not differ significantly between islands (P=0.215). Chickens (71%) and dogs (62%) were the most commonly kept animal species in addition to pigs. Pigs were mainly kept as a secondary income source (69%) and 83% of farmers owned at least one sow. Seventy-four percent (74%) of pigs were housed in a kandang (small bamboo pen) and 25% were tethered. Pig feeds were primarily locally sourced agricultural products (93%). The majority of farmers had no knowledge of classical swine fever (91%) and biosecurity practices were minimal. Forty-five percent (45%) reported to consuming a pig when it died and 74% failed to report cases of sick or dead pigs to appropriate authorities. Sixty-five percent (65%) of farmers reported that a veterinarian or animal health worker had never visited their village. Backyard slaughter was common practice (55%), with meat mainly used for home consumption (89%). Most (73%) farmers purchased pigs in order to raise the animal on their farm with 36% purchasing at least one pig within the last year. Predominantly fattener pigs (34%) were given as gifts for celebratory events, most commonly for funerals (32%), traditional ceremonies (27%) and marriages (10%). For improved productivity of this traditional low-input system, research incorporating farming training and improved knowledge on pig disease and biosecurity needs to be integrated with greater access to extension services.

Factors affecting the infectivity of tissues from pigs with classical swine fever: thermal inactivation rates and oral infectious dose.

Outbreaks of classical swine fever are often associated with ingestion of pig meat or products derived from infected pigs. Assessment of the disease risks associated with material of porcine origin requires knowledge on the likely amount of virus in the original material, how long the virus may remain viable within the resulting product and how much of that product would need to be ingested to result in infection. Using material from pigs infected with CSFV, we determined the viable virus concentrations in tissues that comprise the majority of pork products. Decimal reduction values (D values), the time required to reduce the viable virus load by 90% (or 1 log10), were determined at temperatures of relevance for chilling, cooking, composting and ambient storage. The rate of CSFV inactivation varied in different tissues. At lower temperatures, virus remained viable for substantially longer in muscle and serum compared to lymphoid and fat tissues. To enable estimation of the temperature dependence of inactivation, the temperature change required to change the D values by 90% (Z values) were determined as 13 °C, 14 °C, 12 °C and 10 °C for lymph node, fat, muscle and serum, respectively. The amount of virus required to infect 50% of pigs by ingestion was determined by feeding groups of animals with moderately and highly virulent CSFV. Interestingly, the virulent virus did not initiate infection at a lower dose than the moderately virulent strain. Although higher than for intranasal inoculation, the amount of virus required for infection via ingestion is present in only a few grams of tissue from infected animals.

Analysis of pig movements across eastern Indonesia, 2009-2010.

Knowledge of live animal movement through markets and from farm-to-farm is needed to inform strategies for control of trans-boundary animal diseases (TADs) in south-east Asia, particularly due to consumer preference for fresh meat. In eastern Indonesia a TAD of principal interest for control is classical swine fever (CSF) due to its impacts on smallholder farmers. Pig movement is considered a contributor to failure of current CSF control efforts but pig movement patterns are not well understood. This study investigated movement of live pigs in West Timor, Flores and Sumba islands during 2009-2010, with the aim of informing CSF control policies for Nusa Tenggara Timor province. A market survey of 292 pig sellers and 281 pig buyers across nine live pig markets and a farmer survey across 18 villages with 289 smallholder farmers were conducted and information collected on pig movements. The data obtained was used for social network analysis (SNA) on formal (via a market) and informal (village-to-village) movements using information on trading practices, source and destination locations, and the number of pigs being moved. Both inter- and intra-island movements were identified, however inter-island movement was only observed between Flores and Sumba islands. West Timor and Sumba had highly connected networks where large numbers of villages were directly and indirectly linked through pig movement. Further for West Timor, both formal and informal pig movements linked the capital Kupang, on the eastern end of the island to the western districts bordering East Timor connecting all five districts and demonstrating that informal movement transports pigs over distances similar to formal movement on this island. Sumba had a higher potential for pigs to move to a greater number of sequential locations across the entire island. Flores was found to have a more fragmented network, with pig movements concentrated in its eastern or western regions, influenced by terrain. Markets were confirmed as high-risk locations for the introduction and spread of disease, having over 20 contacts (based on in- and out-degree values) depending on operational day. Villages considered high-risk for CSF spread via informal movements were characterised by higher volume of pig exits and/or linkage to higher numbers of other villages. These findings demonstrate that informal movement (often related to cultural practices) can be extensive and the high level of connectivity dictates that control strategies for CSF and other highly transmissible diseases must be formulated at the provincial level and in collaboration with East Timor.

Quantification of different classical swine fever virus transmission routes within a single compartment.

During outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF), CSF virus (CSFV) can be transmitted via different routes. Understanding these transmission routes is crucial in preventing the unlimited spread of the virus in a naïve population, and the subsequent eradication of the virus from that population. The objectives of the present study were to quantify virus transmission within a compartment, differentiating between transmission within a pen, transmission between pens via contact through (open) pen partitions, and transmission via the air. Furthermore, the possible contribution of each of these routes to infection of individual pigs was quantified. A CSFV outbreak was mimicked in a compartment housing 24 pigs in six different pens. Two pigs in one pen were inoculated with the moderately virulent Paderborn strain, and virus transmission to other pigs was followed in time. Virus transmission rates for transmission via the air (ß of 0.33 (0.14-0.64) per day) and transmission between adjacent pens (ß of 0.30 (0-0.88) per day) were comparable, but significantly lower than for virus transmission within a pen (ß of 6.1 (0.86-18) per day). The route via the air created new focal points of infection, from which virus transmission continued through other routes. This shows that, at least within a compartment, transmission via the air is expected to play a relevant role in the fast spread of the virus after an initial slow start. This will have consequences for efficacy of intervention measures, including vaccination during an outbreak.

Efficacy of CSF vaccine CP7_E2alf in piglets with maternally derived antibodies.

There is a need for live DIVA (differentiating infected from vaccinated animals) vaccines against classical swine fever (CSF). The aim of this study was to investigate whether vaccination with the chimeric pestivirus vaccine CP7_E2alf is efficacious to protect young piglets born from vaccinated sows, thus with maternally derived antibodies (MDAs). Groups of 10 piglets each, with or without MDAs, were vaccinated either intramuscularly (IM), at an age of 3 or 6 weeks, or orally (OR), at an age of 6 weeks. Five piglets of each group were challenged with CSFV strain Koslov and protection against clinical disease, virus shedding and transmission were studied. Vaccination with CP7_E2alf, both in the presence of MDA's and in piglets without MDA's, protected against severe clinical signs, but virus shedding from most inoculated piglets and transmission to contact pigs was observed. However, virus transmission in the vaccinated piglets was significantly reduced as compared to non-vaccinated piglets, although the reproduction ratio's R calculated from the results in the vaccinated pigs from our study were not yet significantly below 1. The efficacy of vaccination with CP7_E2alf in the presence of MDAs (R IMvac=0.8, R ORvac=0.4) seemed to be slightly less as compared to vaccination in the absence of MDAs (R IMvac=0.2, R ORvac=0). On a population level, the results suggest that the CP7_E2alf vaccine is an effective tool in the control and eradication of CSF and, moreover, can be applied for both IM and oral use for young age groups, with MDAs having a limited effect on the efficacy.

The influence of between-farm distance and farm size on the spread of classical swine fever during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands.

As the size of livestock farms in The Netherlands is on the increase for economic reasons, an important question is how disease introduction risks and risks of onward transmission scale with farm size (i.e. with the number of animals on the farm). Here we use the epidemic data of the 1997-1998 epidemic of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) Virus in The Netherlands to address this question for CSF risks. This dataset is one of the most powerful ones statistically as in this epidemic a total of 428 pig farms where infected, with the majority of farm sizes ranging between 27 and 1750 pigs, including piglets. We have extended the earlier models for the transmission risk as a function of between-farm distance, by adding two factors. These factors describe the effect of farm size on the susceptibility of a 'receiving' farm and on the infectivity of a 'sending' farm (or 'source' farm), respectively. Using the best-fitting model, we show that the size of a farm has a significant influence on both farm-level susceptibility and infectivity for CSF. Although larger farms are both more susceptible to CSF and, when infected, more infectious to other farms than smaller farms, the increase is less than linear. The higher the farm size, the smaller the effect of increments of farm size on the susceptibility and infectivity of a farm. Because of changes in the Dutch pig farming characteristics, a straightforward extrapolation of the observed farm size dependencies from 1997/1998 to present times would not be justified. However, based on our results one may expect that also for the current pig farming characteristics in The Netherlands, farm susceptibility and infectivity depend non-linearly on farm size, with some saturation effect for relatively large farm sizes.

Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: the example of Bulgaria.

The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever.

Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model.

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.