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1.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0300527, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38630760

ABSTRACT

This study tackles the complex task of integrating wind energy systems into the electric grid, facing challenges such as power oscillations and unreliable energy generation due to fluctuating wind speeds. Focused on wind energy conversion systems, particularly those utilizing double-fed induction generators (DFIGs), the research introduces a novel approach to enhance Direct Power Control (DPC) effectiveness. Traditional DPC, while simple, encounters issues like torque ripples and reduced power quality due to a hysteresis controller. In response, the study proposes an innovative DPC method for DFIGs using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Experimental verification shows ANNs effectively addressing issues with the hysteresis controller and switching table. Additionally, the study addresses wind speed variability by employing an artificial neural network to directly control reactive and active power of DFIG, aiming to minimize challenges with varying wind speeds. Results highlight the effectiveness and reliability of the developed intelligent strategy, outperforming traditional methods by reducing current harmonics and improving dynamic response. This research contributes valuable insights into enhancing the performance and reliability of renewable energy systems, advancing solutions for wind energy integration complexities.


Subject(s)
Renewable Energy , Wind , Reproducibility of Results , Computer Systems , Neural Networks, Computer
2.
JMIR Aging ; 7: e45978, 2024 Apr 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38587884

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Technology has been identified as a potential solution to alleviate resource gaps and augment care delivery in dementia care settings such as hospitals, long-term care, and retirement homes. There has been an increasing interest in using real-time location systems (RTLS) across health care settings for older adults with dementia, specifically related to the ability to track a person's movement and location. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to explore the factors that influence the adoption or nonadoption of an RTLS during its implementation in a specialized inpatient dementia unit in a tertiary care rehabilitation hospital. METHODS: The study included data from a brief quantitative survey and interviews from a convenience sample of frontline participants. Our deductive analysis of the interview used the 3 categories of the Fit Between Individuals, Task, and Technology framework as follows: individual and task, individual and technology, and task and technology. The purpose of using this framework was to assess the quality of the fit between technology attributes and an individual's self-reported intentions to adopt RTLS technology. RESULTS: A total of 20 health care providers (HCPs) completed the survey, of which 16 (80%) participated in interviews. Coding and subsequent analysis identified 2 conceptual subthemes in the individual-task fit category, including the identification of the task and the perception that participants were missing at-risk patient events. The task-technology fit category consisted of 3 subthemes, including reorganization of the task, personal control in relation to the task, and efficiency or resource allocation. A total of 4 subthemes were identified in the individual-technology fit category, including privacy and personal agency, trust in the technology, user interfaces, and perceptions of increased safety. CONCLUSIONS: By the end of the study, most of the unit's HCPs were using the tablet app based on their perception of its usefulness, its alignment with their comfort level with technology, and its ability to help them perform job responsibilities. HCPs perceived that they were able to reduce patient search time dramatically, yet any improvements in care were noted to be implied, as this was not measured. There was limited anecdotal evidence of reduced patient risk or adverse events, but greater reported peace of mind for HCPs overseeing patients' activity levels.


Subject(s)
Dementia , Research Design , Humans , Aged , Computer Systems , Health Facilities , Health Personnel , Dementia/therapy
3.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0301910, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38635672

ABSTRACT

With the increasing demand for electricity, microgrid systems are facing issues such as insufficient backup capacity, frequent load switching, and frequent malfunctions, making research on microgrid resilience crucial, especially to improve system power supply reliability. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the resilience metric of new energy grid-connected microgrid system, and proposes optimization strategies to improve resilience. Firstly, a measurement method for the resilience of the microgrid system is established based on the operating characteristics of the system components. Secondly, the sensitivity relationship between system resilience and parameters is established, and an optimization model for resilience improvement strategies of microgrid systems based on parameter sensitivity is constructed. Finally, simulation verification is conducted based on the IEEE 37-node microgrid system. The results show that the proposed measurement method can scientifically and reasonably measure the resilience of the microgrid system, and the resilience improvement strategy significantly improves the operational resilience, verifying the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed analysis method.


Subject(s)
Resilience, Psychological , Reproducibility of Results , Computer Simulation , Computer Systems , Electric Power Supplies
4.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0297750, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38625921

ABSTRACT

High-voltage dry-type bushings, serving as the crucial junctions in DC power transmission, represent equipment with the highest failure rate on the DC primary side, underscoring the critical importance of monitoring their condition. Presently, numerical simulation methods are commonly employed to assess the internal state of bushings. However, due to limitations in the efficiency of multi-physics field computations, the guidance provided by numerical simulation results in the field of power equipment condition assessment is relatively weak. This paper focuses on solving the electrical-thermal coupling in high-voltage dry-type bushings. Addressing the most widely used tetrahedral mesh in numerical computations, we propose an efficient solution method based on the concept of "smooth domains." This method involves partitioning the volume centroids of the elements into multiple smooth domains within the computational domain. Electric and thermal conduction matrix calculations occur within these smooth domains, rather than within the grid or element interiors. This approach eliminates the need for traditional element mapping and complex volume integration. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, we use high-voltage dry-type bushings as a case study, comparing the performance of our approach with traditional finite element algorithms. We verify the algorithm's computational efficiency and apply it to the analysis of typical temperature anomalies in bushings, further illustrating its suitability for electrical equipment condition assessment.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Electricity , Computer Simulation , Temperature , Computer Systems , Finite Element Analysis
5.
PLoS One ; 19(4): e0297267, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38573985

ABSTRACT

There are global efforts to deploy Electric Vehicles (EVs) because of the role they promise to play in energy transition. These efforts underscore the e-mobility paradigm, representing an interplay between renewable energy resources, smart technologies, and networked transportation. However, there are concerns that these initiatives could burden the electricity grid due to increased demand. Hence, the need for accurate short-term load forecasting is pivotal for the efficient planning, operation, and control of the grid and associated power systems. This study presents robust models for forecasting half-hourly and hourly loads in the UK's power system. The work leverages machine learning techniques such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to develop robust prediction models using the net imports dataset from 2010 to 2020. The models were evaluated based on metrics like Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and the Correlation of Determination (R2). For half-hourly forecasts, SVR performed best with an R-value of 99.85%, followed closely by GPR and ANN. But, for hourly forecasts, ANN led with an R-value of 99.71%. The findings affirm the reliability and precision of machine learning methods in short-term load forecasting, particularly highlighting the superior accuracy of the SVR model for half-hourly forecasts and the ANN model for hourly forecasts.


Subject(s)
Benchmarking , Computer Systems , Reproducibility of Results , Electricity , United Kingdom , Forecasting
6.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38656860

ABSTRACT

In neurodegenerative disorders, neuronal firing patterns and oscillatory activity are remarkably altered in specific brain regions, which can serve as valuable biomarkers for the identification of deep brain regions. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) has been the primary target for DBS in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). In this study, changes in the spike firing patterns and spectral power of local field potentials (LFPs) in the pre-STN (zona incerta, ZI) and post-STN (cerebral peduncle, cp) regions were investigated in PD rats, providing crucial evidence for the functional localization of the STN. Sixteen-channel microelectrode arrays (MEAs) with sites distributed at different depths and widths were utilized to record neuronal activities. The spikes in the STN exhibited higher firing rates than those in the ZI and cp. Furthermore, the LFP power in the delta band in the STN was the greatest, followed by that in the ZI, and was greater than that in the cp. Additionally, increased LFP power was observed in the beta bands in the STN. To identify the best performing classification model, we applied various convolutional neural networks (CNNs) based on transfer learning to analyze the recorded raw data, which were processed using the Gram matrix of the spikes and the fast Fourier transform of the LFPs. The best transfer learning model achieved an accuracy of 95.16%. After fusing the spike and LFP classification results, the time precision for processing the raw data reached 500 ms. The pretrained model, utilizing raw data, demonstrated the feasibility of employing transfer learning for training models on neural activity. This approach highlights the potential for functional localization within deep brain regions.


Subject(s)
Deep Brain Stimulation , Microelectrodes , Rats, Sprague-Dawley , Subthalamic Nucleus , Subthalamic Nucleus/physiopathology , Animals , Rats , Male , Disease Models, Animal , Parkinson Disease/physiopathology , Parkinson Disease/rehabilitation , Action Potentials/physiology , Algorithms , Computer Systems , Parkinsonian Disorders/physiopathology , Parkinsonian Disorders/rehabilitation , Machine Learning
7.
Comput Methods Programs Biomed ; 250: 108171, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38631128

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Interactive soft tissue dissection has been a fundamental procedure in virtual surgery systems. Existing cutting algorithms involve complex topology changes of simulation meshes, which can increase simulation overhead and produce visual artifacts. In this paper, we proposed a novel graph-based shape-matching method that allows for real-time, flexible, progressive, and discontinuous cuts on soft tissue. METHODS: We employed shape-matching constraints within the position-based dynamics (PBD) framework, a widely adopted approach for real-time simulation applications. The soft tissue was effectively modeled using overlapping clusters, each governed by shape-matching constraints. The dissection process was bifurcated into two distinct stages. In the first stage, the surgical scalpel presses the surface of the soft tissue. The soft tissue is cut apart when the surface pressure exceeds a threshold, entering the second stage. To address the discrepancy between the visual mesh and the simulation model during cluster separation, we developed an Aggregate Finding Connected Components (AFCC) algorithm, optimized for GPU computation and integrated with a background grid. This approach also avoids ghost forces and fragmentation artifacts. To control the increase in the number of clusters, we also propose a merging strategy that can run in parallel. RESULTS: Our simulation outcomes demonstrated that the AFCC dissection algorithm effectively manages cluster separation and expansion with robustness. There were no ghost forces between the cutting surface and unrealistic fragments. Our simulation capability extended to supporting intricate and discontinuous cutting routes. Our dissection simulation maintained real-time performance even with over 100,000 particles constituting the soft tissue. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-time and robust surgical dissection simulation technique enables the performance of complex cuts in various surgical scenarios, demonstrating its potential in virtual surgery applications.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Computer Graphics , Computer Simulation , Humans , Dissection , Computer Systems , Imaging, Three-Dimensional
8.
Nat Neurosci ; 27(5): 1014-1018, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38467902

ABSTRACT

Large-scale imaging of neuronal activities is crucial for understanding brain functions. However, it is challenging to analyze large-scale imaging data in real time, preventing closed-loop investigation of neural circuitry. Here we develop a real-time analysis system with a field programmable gate array-graphics processing unit design for an up to 500-megabyte-per-second image stream. Adapted to whole-brain imaging of awake larval zebrafish, the system timely extracts activity from up to 100,000 neurons and enables closed-loop perturbations of neural dynamics.


Subject(s)
Brain , Neurons , Zebrafish , Animals , Neurons/physiology , Brain/physiology , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Image Processing, Computer-Assisted/methods , Larva , Neuroimaging/methods , Computer Systems
9.
Strahlenther Onkol ; 200(5): 418-424, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38488899

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: This study aimed to assess the margin for the planning target volume (PTV) using the Van Herk formula. We then validated the proposed margin by real-time magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: An analysis of cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) data from early glottic cancer patients was performed to evaluate organ motion. Deformed clinical target volumes (CTV) after rigid registration were acquired using the Velocity program (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA, USA). Systematic (Σ) and random errors (σ) were evaluated. The margin for the PTV was defined as 2.5 Σ + 0.7 σ according to the Van Herk formula. To validate this margin, we accrued healthy volunteers. Sagittal real-time cine MRI was conducted using the ViewRay system (ViewRay Inc., Oakwood Village, OH, USA). Within the obtained sagittal images, the vocal cord was delineated. The movement of the vocal cord was summed up and considered as the internal target volume (ITV). We then assessed the degree of overlap between the ITV and the PTV (vocal cord plus margins) by calculating the volume overlap ratio, represented as (ITV∩PTV)/ITV. RESULTS: CBCTs of 17 early glottic patients were analyzed. Σ and σ were 0.55 and 0.57 for left-right (LR), 0.70 and 0.60 for anterior-posterior (AP), and 1.84 and 1.04 for superior-inferior (SI), respectively. The calculated margin was 1.8 mm (LR), 2.2 mm (AP), and 5.3 mm (SI). Four healthy volunteers participated for validation. A margin of 3 mm (AP) and 5 mm (SI) was applied to the vocal cord as the PTV. The average volume overlap ratio between ITV and PTV was 0.92 (range 0.85-0.99) without swallowing and 0.77 (range 0.70-0.88) with swallowing. CONCLUSION: By evaluating organ motion by using CBCT, the margin was 1.8 (LR), 2.2 (AP), and 5.3 mm (SI). The margin acquired using CBCT fitted well in real-time cine MRI. Given that swallowing during radiotherapy can result in a substantial displacement, it is crucial to consider strategies aimed at minimizing swallowing and related motion.


Subject(s)
Cone-Beam Computed Tomography , Glottis , Laryngeal Neoplasms , Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Cine , Humans , Cone-Beam Computed Tomography/methods , Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Cine/methods , Glottis/diagnostic imaging , Male , Laryngeal Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Laryngeal Neoplasms/radiotherapy , Middle Aged , Female , Adult , Aged , Organ Motion , Computer Systems , Radiotherapy Planning, Computer-Assisted/methods , Reproducibility of Results , Sensitivity and Specificity
10.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0300803, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38512967

ABSTRACT

The Electric Vehicle (EV) landscape has witnessed unprecedented growth in recent years. The integration of EVs into the grid has increased the demand for power while maintaining the grid's balance and efficiency. Demand Side Management (DSM) plays a pivotal role in this system, ensuring that the grid can accommodate the additional load demand without compromising stability or necessitating costly infrastructure upgrades. In this work, a DSM algorithm has been developed with appropriate objective functions and necessary constraints, including the EV load, distributed generation from Solar Photo Voltaic (PV), and Battery Energy Storage Systems. The objective functions are constructed using various optimization strategies, such as the Bat Optimization Algorithm (BOA), African Vulture Optimization (AVOA), Cuckoo Search Algorithm, Chaotic Harris Hawk Optimization (CHHO), Chaotic-based Interactive Autodidact School (CIAS) algorithm, and Slime Mould Algorithm (SMA). This algorithm-based DSM method is simulated using MATLAB/Simulink in different cases and loads, such as residential and Information Technology (IT) sector loads. The results show that the peak load has been reduced from 4.5 MW to 2.6 MW, and the minimum load has been raised from 0.5 MW to 1.2 MW, successfully reducing the gap between peak and low points. Additionally, the performance of each algorithm was compared in terms of the difference between peak and valley points, computation time, and convergence rate to achieve the best fitness value.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Black People , Humans , Computer Systems , Electric Power Supplies , Electricity
11.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0299632, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38517854

ABSTRACT

Ultra-short-term power load forecasting is beneficial to improve the economic efficiency of power systems and ensure the safe and stable operation of power grids. As the volatility and randomness of loads in power systems, make it difficult to achieve accurate and reliable power load forecasting, a sequence-to-sequence based learning framework is proposed to learn feature information in different dimensions synchronously. Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN) Combined with Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) Networks is constructed in the encoder to extract the correlated timing features embedded in external factors affecting power loads. The parallel BiLSTM network is constructed in the decoder to mine the power load timing information in different regions separately. The multi-headed attention mechanism is introduced to fuse the BiLSTM hidden layer state information in different components to further highlight the key information representation. The load forecastion results in different regions are output through the fully connected layer. The model proposed in this paper has the advantage of high forecastion accuracy through the example analysis of real power load data.


Subject(s)
Computer Systems , Learning , Memory, Long-Term , Neural Networks, Computer , Forecasting
12.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 5445, 2024 03 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38443428

ABSTRACT

Malaria ranks high among prevalent and ravaging infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The negative impacts, disease burden, and risk are higher among children and pregnant women as part of the most vulnerable groups to malaria in Nigeria. However, the burden of malaria is not even in space and time. This study explores the spatial variability of malaria prevalence among children under five years (U5) in medium-sized rapidly growing city of Akure, Nigeria using model-based geostatistical modeling (MBG) technique to predict U5 malaria burden at a 100 × 100 m grid, while the parameter estimation was done using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method. The non-spatial logistic regression model shows that U5 malaria prevalence is significantly influenced by the usage of insecticide-treated nets-ITNs, window protection, and water source. Furthermore, the MBG model shows predicted U5 malaria prevalence in Akure is greater than 35% at certain locations while we were able to ascertain places with U5 prevalence > 10% (i.e. hotspots) using exceedance probability modelling which is a vital tool for policy development. The map provides place-based evidence on the spatial variation of U5 malaria in Akure, and direction on where intensified interventions are crucial for the reduction of U5 malaria burden and improvement of urban health in Akure, Nigeria.


Subject(s)
Malaria , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Black People , Computer Systems , Malaria/epidemiology , Malaria/prevention & control , Risk Factors , Urban Health
13.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0293616, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38527091

ABSTRACT

To properly control the network of the power system and ensure its protection, Phasor measurement units (PMUs) must be used to monitor the network's operation. PMUs can provide synchronized real-time measurements. These measurements can be used for state estimation, fault detection and diagnosis, and other grid control applications. Conventional state estimation methods use weighting factors to balance the different types of measurements, and zero injection measurements can lead to large weighting factors that can introduce computational errors. The offered methods are designed to ensure that these zero injection criteria can be strictly satisfied while calculating the voltage profile and observability of the various distribution networks without sacrificing computing efficiency. The proposed method's viability is assessed using standard IEEE distribution networks. MATLAB coding is used to simulate the case analyses. Overall, the study provides a valuable contribution to the field of power distribution system monitoring and control by simplifying the process of determining the optimal locations for PMUs in a distribution network and assessing the impact of ZI buses on the voltage profile of the system.


Subject(s)
Computer Systems , Technology , Injections
14.
Neural Netw ; 174: 106245, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38508046

ABSTRACT

Modeling and recognizing events in complex systems through machine learning techniques is a challenging task. Especially if the model is constrained to be explainable and interpretable, while ensuring high levels of accuracy. In this paper, we adopt a bilinear logistic regression model in which the parameters are trained in a data-driven fashion on a real-world dataset of power grid failure data. The bilinear white-box model - grounded on a specific neural architecture - has been proven effective in classifying faulty states with a performance comparable to several classifiers in technical literature. Additionally, the low computational complexity of the bilinear model, in terms of the number of free parameters, allows gaining insights into the fault phenomenon correlating the events that impact the power grid (exogenous causes) with its constitutive characteristics, thence eliciting the relational information hidden in the data. The proposed model is also able to estimate a vulnerability vector that can be associated, as a suitable characteristic "label", to power grid components, opening the way, as will be deeply demonstrated in the following, not only to predictive maintenance programs or condition monitoring tasks but also to risk assessment and scenario analyses in line with the explainable AI paradigm.


Subject(s)
Computer Systems , Machine Learning , Logistic Models
15.
Accid Anal Prev ; 200: 107559, 2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38554470

ABSTRACT

Existing studies on autonomous intersection management (AIM) primarily focus on traffic efficiency, often overlooking the overall intersection safety, where conflict separation is simplified and traffic conflicts are inadequately assessed. In this paper, we introduce a calculation method for the grid-based Post Encroachment Time (PET) and the total kinetic energy change before and after collisions. The improved grid-based PET metric provides a more accurate estimation of collision probability, and the total kinetic energy change serves as a precise measure of collision severity. Consequently, we establish the Grid-Based Conflict Index (GBCI) to systematically quantify collision risks between vehicles at an autonomous intersection. Then, we propose a traffic-safety-based AIM model aimed at minimizing the weighted sum of total delay and conflict risk at the intersection. This entails the optimization of entry time and trajectory for each vehicle within the intersection, achieving traffic control that prioritizes overall intersection safety. Our results demonstrate that GBCI effectively assesses conflict risks within the intersection, and the proposed AIM model significantly reduces conflict risks between vehicles and enhances traffic safety while ensuring intersection efficiency.


Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic , Automobile Driving , Humans , Accidents, Traffic/prevention & control , Environment Design , Safety Management , Probability , Computer Systems , Safety
16.
J Acoust Soc Am ; 155(3): 2257-2269, 2024 Mar 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38536062

ABSTRACT

Transcranial ultrasound imaging assumes a growing significance in the detection and monitoring of intracranial lesions and cerebral blood flow. Accurate solution of partial differential equation (PDE) is one of the prerequisites for obtaining transcranial ultrasound wavefields. Grid-based numerical solvers such as finite difference (FD) and finite element methods have limitations including high computational costs and discretization errors. Purely data-driven methods have relatively high demands on training datasets. The fact that physics-informed neural network can only target the same model limits its application. In addition, compared to time-domain approaches, frequency-domain solutions offer advantages of reducing computational complexity and enabling stable and accurate inversions. Therefore, we introduce a framework called FD-embedded UNet (FEUNet) for solving frequency-domain transcranial ultrasound wavefields. The PDE error is calculated using the optimal 9-point FD operator, and it is integrated with the data-driven error to jointly guide the network iterations. We showcase the effectiveness of this approach through experiments involving idealized skull and brain models. FEUNet demonstrates versatility in handling various input scenarios and excels in enhancing prediction accuracy, especially with limited datasets and noisy information. Finally, we provide an overview of the advantages, limitations, and potential avenues for future research in this study.


Subject(s)
Computer Systems , Head , Ultrasonography , Neural Networks, Computer , Skull
17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38437148

ABSTRACT

In steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP)-based brain-computer interface (BCI) systems, traditional flickering stimulation patterns face challenges in achieving a trade-off in both BCI performance and visual comfort across various frequency bands. To investigate the optimal stimulation paradigms with high performance and high comfort for each frequency band, this study systematically compared the characteristics of SSVEP and user experience of different stimulation paradigms with a wide stimulation frequency range of 1-60 Hz. The findings suggest that, for a better balance between system performance and user experience, ON and OFF grid stimuli with a Weber contrast of 50% can be utilized as alternatives to traditional flickering stimulation paradigms in the frequency band of 1-25 Hz. In the 25-35 Hz range, uniform flicker stimuli with the same 50% contrast are more suitable. In the higher frequency band, traditional uniform flicker stimuli with a high 300% contrast are preferred. These results are significant for developing high performance and user-friendly SSVEP-based BCI systems.


Subject(s)
Brain-Computer Interfaces , Evoked Potentials, Visual , Humans , Photic Stimulation/methods , Electroencephalography/methods , Computer Systems
18.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 5287, 2024 03 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38438528

ABSTRACT

In this paper, NeuralProphet (NP), an explainable hybrid modular framework, enhances the forecasting performance of pandemics by adding two neural network modules; auto-regressor (AR) and lagged-regressor (LR). An advanced deep auto-regressor neural network (Deep-AR-Net) model is employed to implement these two modules. The enhanced NP is optimized via AdamW and Huber loss function to perform multivariate multi-step forecasting contrast to Prophet. The models are validated with COVID-19 time-series datasets. The NP's efficiency is studied component-wise for a long-term forecast for India and an overall reduction of 60.36% and individually 34.7% by AR-module, 53.4% by LR-module in MASE compared to Prophet. The Deep-AR-Net model reduces the forecasting error of NP for all five countries, on average, by 49.21% and 46.07% for short-and-long-term, respectively. The visualizations confirm that forecasting curves are closer to the actual cases but significantly different from Prophet. Hence, it can develop a real-time decision-making system for highly infectious diseases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Computer Systems , Health Facilities , India/epidemiology
19.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0298426, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38452043

ABSTRACT

Banking and stock markets consider gold to be an important component of their economic and financial status. There are various factors that influence the gold price trend and its fluctuations. Accurate and reliable prediction of the gold price is an essential part of financial and portfolio management. Moreover, it could provide insights about potential buy and sell points in order to prevent financial damages and reduce the risk of investment. In this paper, different architectures of deep neural network (DNN) have been proposed based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional-based neural networks (CNN) as a hybrid model, along with automatic parameter tuning to increase the accuracy, coefficient of determination, of the forecasting results. An illustrative dataset from the closing gold prices for 44 years, from 1978 to 2021, is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of this method. The grid search technique finds the optimal set of DNNs' parameters. Furthermore, to assess the efficiency of DNN models, three statistical indices of RMSE, RMAE, and coefficient of determination (R2), were calculated for the test set. Results indicate that the proposed hybrid model (CNN-Bi-LSTM) outperforms other models in total bias, capturing extreme values and obtaining promising results. In this model, CNN is used to extract features of input dataset. Furthermore, Bi-LSTM uses CNN's outputs to predict the daily closing gold price.


Subject(s)
Computer Systems , Gold , Investments , Memory, Long-Term , Neural Networks, Computer
20.
Neural Netw ; 173: 106210, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38417353

ABSTRACT

Modern industrial processes are characterized by extensive, multiple operation units, and strong coupled correlation of subsystems. Fault detection of large-scale processes is still a challenging problem, especially for tandem plant-wide processes in multiple fields such as water treatment process. In this paper, a novel distributed graph attention network-bidirectional long short-term memory (D-GATBLSTM) fault detection model is proposed for large-scale industrial processes. Firstly, a multi-node knowledge graph (MNKG) is constructed using a joint data and knowledge driven strategy. Secondly, for large-scale industrial process, a global feature extractor of graph attention networks (GATs) is constructed, on the basis of which, sub-blocks are decomposed based on MNKG. Then, local feature extractors of bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) for each sub-block are constructed, in which correlations among multiple sub-blocks are considered. Finally, a multi-subblock fusion collaborative prediction model is constructed and the comprehensive fault detection results are given by the grid search method. The effectiveness of our D-GATBLSTM is exemplified in a secure water treatment process case, where it outperforms baseline models compared, with 27% improvement in precision, 15% increase in recall, and overall F-score enhancement of 0.22.


Subject(s)
Computer Systems , Pattern Recognition, Automated , Knowledge , Memory, Long-Term , Mental Recall
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