Temporal Trends and Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease in South Asia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Three Decades from Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: The objective of this study is to conduct a temporal analysis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) disease burden trends over a 30-year period (1991 to 2021), focusing on prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the South Asia (SA). Methods: In this ecological study, we analyzed data regarding burden of RHD from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study spanning the years 1991 to 2021 for the SA Region. Estimates of the number RHD-related prevalence, deaths, and DALYs along with age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were evaluated. Results: The overall prevalent cases of RHD in the 2021 were 54785.1 × 103 (43328.4 × 103 to 67605.5 × 103), out of which 14378.8 × 103 (11206.9 × 103 to 18056.9 × 103) were from SA. The ASR of point prevalence showed upward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.40 (0.39 to 0.40) and 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13), respectively. The overall number of RHD-related deaths in the 2021 were 373.3 × 103 (324.1 × 103 to 444.8 × 103), out of which 215 × 103 (176.9 × 103 to 287.8 × 103) were from SA, representing 57.6% of the global deaths. The ASR of deaths also showed downward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an AAPC of -2.66 (-2.70 to -2.63) and -2.07 (-2.14 to -2.00), respectively. The ASR of DALYs showed downward trend between 1990 and 2019, at global level and for South Asian region with an AAPC of -2.47 (-2.49 to -2.44) and -2.22 (-2.27 to -2.17), respectively. Conclusion: The rising age-standardized prevalence of RHD remains a global concern, especially in South Asia which contribute to over 50% of global RHD-related deaths. Encouragingly, declining trends in RHD-related deaths and DALYs hint at progress in RHD management and treatment on both a global and regional scale.

The Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Child and Maternal Malnutrition: 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: With this study, we aimed to estimate the disease burden attributable to child and maternal malnutrition (CMM) throughout the world between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: The number, age-standardized rate, population attributable fraction of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years, years of life lost, and years lived with disability associated with CMM were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 by age, sex, year, location, and sociodemographic index at the global level. The slope index of inequality and concentration index were employed to measure socioeconomic-related health inequalities across countries. RESULTS: The number (million) of global deaths, disability-adjusted life-years, and years of life lost related to CMM were 2.9, 294.8, and 250.5 in 2019, showing decreases of 60.8, 57.4, and 60.7% since 1990. However, the number of years lived with CMM-related disability increased from 36.0 in 1990 to 44.3 in 2019. Additionally, the age-standardized rates of these 4 indicators showed varying degrees of decline. The global burden of CMM-related conditions differed with age and sex. The burden was the heaviest in western sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Chad. In terms of diseases, neonatal disorders represented the most significant burden attributed to CMM. Additionally, the CMM burden was more concentrated in regions with low sociodemographic indices, shown by the slope index of inequality and concentration index. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study highlight the ongoing global burden of CMM, particularly in terms of years lived with disability. Population-wide actions targeting the effective treatment and relief of CMM may reduce the CMM-related disease burden.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among women of childbearing age from 1990 to 2021: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Migraine, a neurological disorder with a significant female predilection, is the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in women of childbearing age (WCBA). There is currently a lack of comprehensive literature analysis on the overall global burden and changing trends of migraines in WCBA. METHODS: This study extracted three main indicators, including prevalence, incidence, and DALYs, related to migraine in WCBA from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database from 1990 to 2021. Our study presented point estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). It evaluated the changing trends in the burden of migraine in WCBA using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and percentage change. RESULTS: In 2021, the global prevalence, incidence, and DALYs cases of migraine among WCBA were 493.94 million, 33.33 million, and 18.25 million, respectively, with percentage changes of 48%, 43%, and 47% compared to 1990. Over the past 32 years, global prevalence rates and DALYs rates globally have increased, with an EAPC of 0.03 (95% UI: 0.02 to 0.05) and 0.04 (95% UI: 0.03 to 0.05), while incidence rates have decreased with an EAPC of -0.07 (95% UI: -0.08 to -0.05). Among the 5 Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, in 2021, the middle SDI region recorded the highest cases of prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of migraine among WCBA, estimated at 157.1 million, 10.56 million, and 5.81 million, respectively, approximately one-third of the global total. In terms of age, in 2021, the global incidence cases for the age group 15-19 years were 5942.5 thousand, with an incidence rate per 100,000 population of 1957.02, the highest among all age groups. The total number of migraine cases and incidence rate among WCBA show an increasing trend with age, particularly in the 45-49 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the burden of migraine among WCBA has significantly increased globally over the past 32 years, particularly within the middle SDI and the 45-49 age group. Research findings emphasize the importance of customized interventions aimed at addressing the issue of migraines in WCBA, thus contributing to the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 set by the World Health Organization.

Notable dysthymia: evolving trends of major depressive disorders and dysthymia in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030.

BACKGROUND: Depressive disorders have been identified as a significant contributor to non-fatal health loss in China. Among the various subtypes of depressive disorders, dysthymia is gaining attention due to its similarity in clinical severity and disability to major depressive disorders (MDD). However, national epidemiological data on the burden of disease and risk factors of MDD and dysthymia in China are scarce. METHODS: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by MDD and dysthymia in China between 1990 and 2019. The temporal trends of the depressive disorder burden were evaluated using the average annual percentage change. The comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of DALYs attributed to risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of depressive disorders. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the overall age-standardized estimates of dysthymia in China remained stable, while MDD showed a decreasing trend. Since 2006, the raw prevalence of dysthymia exceeded that of MDD for the first time, and increased alternately with MDD in recent years. Moreover, while the prevalence and burden of MDD decreased in younger age groups, it increased in the aged population. In contrast, the prevalence and burden of dysthymia remained stable across different ages. In females, 11.34% of the DALYs attributable to depressive disorders in 2019 in China were caused by intimate partner violence, which has increasingly become prominent among older women. From 2020 to 2030, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of dysthymia in China are projected to remain stable, while MDD is expected to continue declining. CONCLUSIONS: To reduce the burden of depressive disorders in China, more attention and targeted strategies are needed for dysthymia. It's also urgent to control potential risk factors like intimate partner violence and develop intervention strategies for older women. These efforts are crucial for improving mental health outcomes in China.

Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 65 years and older, 1990-2019: population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden, trends, and inequalities of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) among older adults at global, regional, and national level from 1990 to 2019. DESIGN: Population based study. POPULATION: Adults aged ≥65 years from 21 regions and 204 countries and territories (Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors Study 2019)from 1990 to 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were T1DM related age standardised prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and average annual percentage change. RESULTS: The global age standardised prevalence of T1DM among adults aged ≥65 years increased from 400 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 332 to 476) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 514 (417 to 624) per 100 000 population in 2019, with an average annual trend of 0.86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79% to 0.93%); while mortality decreased from 4.74 (95% UI 3.44 to 5.9) per 100 000 population to 3.54 (2.91 to 4.59) per 100 000 population, with an average annual trend of -1.00% (95% CI -1.09% to -0.91%), and age standardised DALYs decreased from 113 (95% UI 89 to 137) per 100 000 population to 103 (85 to 127) per 100 000 population, with an average annual trend of -0.33% (95% CI -0.41% to -0.25%). The most significant decrease in DALYs was observed among those aged <79 years: 65-69 (-0.44% per year (95% CI -0.53% to -0.34%)), 70-74 (-0.34% per year (-0.41% to -0.27%)), and 75-79 years (-0.42% per year (-0.58% to -0.26%)). Mortality fell 13 times faster in countries with a high sociodemographic index versus countries with a low-middle sociodemographic index (-2.17% per year (95% CI -2.31% to -2.02%) v -0.16% per year (-0.45% to 0.12%)). While the highest prevalence remained in high income North America, Australasia, and western Europe, the highest DALY rates were found in southern sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, and the Caribbean. A high fasting plasma glucose level remained the highest risk factor for DALYs among older adults during 1990-2019. CONCLUSIONS: The life expectancy of older people with T1DM has increased since the 1990s along with a considerable decrease in associated mortality and DALYs. T1DM related mortality and DALYs were lower in women aged ≥65 years, those living in regions with a high sociodemographic index, and those aged <79 years. Management of high fasting plasma glucose remains a major challenge for older people with T1DM, and targeted clinical guidelines are needed.

Global burdens of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in children and young adults and predictions to 2040.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the epidemiological trend for nasopharyngeal carcinoma among children and young adults and the disease burden they caused. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. A comprehensive analysis was performed, with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). And decomposition and frontier analyses were done. Future trends were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: Globally, there were decreases in the ASIR (EAPC -0.175, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: -0.352 to 0.002), ASMR (EAPC -2.681, 95 % CI: -2.937 to -2.424), and age-standardized DALYs rates (EAPC -2.643, 95 % CI: -2.895 to -2.391). However, the ASIR for males in global (EAPC 0.454, 95 % CI: 0.302 to 0.606), Asia (EAPC 0.782, 95 % CI: 0.610 to 0.954) and America (EAPC 0.448, 95 % CI: 0.379 to 0.517), as well as females in European (EAPC 0.595, 95 % CI: 0.479 to 0.712) and American (EAPC 0.369, 95 % CI: 0.324 to 0.415), showed an increasing trend. The future ASIR per 100,000 will likely show a slight upward trend in 2020 to 2040 (increased from 0.254 to 0.284), particularly among females (increased from 0.177 to 0.206), and a continued decline in ASMR for both sexes (decreased from 0.070 to 0.061). CONCLUSIONS: Globally, NPC in children and young adults remains a major public health issue, with the global distribution and magnitude of the burden varies markedly, highlighting the need to formulate regional and population-based policies for primary prevention.

Global Burden and Trends of Primary Liver Cancer Attributable to Comorbid Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among People Living with Hepatitis B: An Observational Trend Study from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of liver cancer among people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among the burden of HBV-related liver cancer. We applied the PAFs to the burden of HBV-related liver cancer derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database to obtain the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity. The prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and deaths of liver cancer attributable to the comorbidity were assessed at the global, regional, and country levels and then stratified by the sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, and age group. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. RESULTS: In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity were 9.9 (8.4-11.5) and 182.4 (154.9-212.7) per 10,000,000 individuals, respectively. High-income Asia Pacific and East Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates increased in 16 out of 21 GBD regions. High-income North America had the largest annual increases in both age-standardized prevalence rates (EAPC = 6.07; 95% UI, 5.59 to 6.56) and DALY rates (EAPC = 4.77; 95% UI, 4.35 to 5.20), followed by Australasia and Central Asia. Across all SDI regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most rapid increase in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, men had consistently higher disease burdens than women across all age groups. The patterns of mortality burden and trends are similar to those of DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV has exhibited an increasing trend across most regions over the last three decades. Tailored prevention strategies targeting T2DM should be implemented among individuals living with HBV.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions. METHODS: We extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates. RESULTS: The number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas. CONCLUSIONS: Global secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

The state of health in the European Union (EU-27) in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The European Union (EU) faces many health-related challenges. Burden of diseases information and the resulting trends over time are essential for health planning. This paper reports estimates of disease burden in the EU and individual 27 EU countries in 2019, and compares them with those in 2010. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals for the whole EU and each country to evaluate age-standardised death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for Level 2 causes, as well as life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardised death and DALY rates in the EU were 465.8 deaths and 20,251.0 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Between 2010 and 2019, there were significant decreases in age-standardised death and YLL rates across EU countries. However, YLD rates remained mainly unchanged. The largest decreases in age-standardised DALY rates were observed for "HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases" and "transport injuries" (each -19%). "Diabetes and kidney diseases" showed a significant increase for age-standardised DALY rates across the EU (3.5%). In addition, "mental disorders" showed an increasing age-standardised YLL rate (14.5%). CONCLUSIONS: There was a clear trend towards improvement in the overall health status of the EU but with differences between countries. EU health policymakers need to address the burden of diseases, paying specific attention to causes such as mental disorders. There are many opportunities for mutual learning among otherwise similar countries with different patterns of disease.

Epidemiological patterns of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes from 1990-2019.

Background: This study investigates the burden of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) across different geographical locations and time periods from 1990 to 2019. A total of 204 countries and regions are included in the analysis, with consideration given to their socio-demographic indexes (SDI). The aim is to examine both spatial and temporal variations in CKD-T2D burden. Methods: This research utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study to evaluate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) associated with CKD-T2D. Results: Since 1990, there has been a noticeable increase of CKD age-standardized rates due to T2D, with an EAPCs of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63 to 0.66) for ASIR and an EAPC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.05) for age-standardized DALYs rate. Among these regions, Andean Latin America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D incidence [EAPC: 2.23 (95% CI: 2.11 to 2.34) and North America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D DALYs [EAPC: 2.73 (95% CI: 2.39 to 3.07)]. The burden was higher in male and increased across all age groups, peaking at 60-79 years. Furthermore, there was a clear correlation between SDI and age-standardized rates, with regions categorized as middle SDI and High SDI experiencing a significant rise in burden. Conclusion: The global burden of CKD-T2D has significantly risen since 1990, especially among males aged 60-79 years and in regions with middle SDI. It is imperative to implement strategic interventions to effectively address this escalating health challenge.

Cardiovascular Disease Burden Attributable to High Sodium Intake in China: A Longitudinal Study from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Overconsumption of sodium has been identified as a key driving factor for diet-related cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). China, being a country bearing a hefty burden of CVD, has a large population with diverse cultural traditions and ethnic beliefs, which complicates the patterns of dietary sodium intake, necessitating a systematic investigation into the profile of the high sodium intake (HSI)-related burden of CVD within its subregions. This study aims to estimate the evolving patterns of HSI-induced CVD burden across China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: The methodology used in the Global Burden of Disease Study was followed to assess deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by age, sex, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the secular changes in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). RESULTS: In 2019, 0.79 million deaths and 1.93 million DALYs of CVD were attributed to HSI, an increase of 53.91% and 39.39% since 1990, respectively. Nevertheless, a downward trend in ASMR (EAPC: -1.45, 95% CI: -1.55, -1.35) and ASDR (EAPC: -1.61, 95% CI: -1.68, -1.53) was detected over time. ASMR and ASDR were higher for males, individuals aged ≥60 years, and regions with low-middle SDI. A markedly negative association between the EAPC in both ASMR and ASDR and the SDI was found in 2019 (ρ = -0.659, p < 0.001 and ρ = -0.558, p < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The HSI-induced CVD burden is gender-, age-, and socioeconomic-dependent. Integrated and targeted strategies for CVD prevention are anticipated in the future throughout China.

The long-term spatio-temporal trends in burden and attributable risk factors of major depressive disorder at global, regional and national levels during 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for GBD 2019.

AIMS: Caused by multiple risk factors, heavy burden of major depressive disorder (MDD) poses serious challenges to public health worldwide over the past 30 years. Yet the burden and attributable risk factors of MDD were not systematically known. We aimed to reveal the long-term spatio-temporal trends in the burden and attributable risk factors of MDD at global, regional and national levels during 1990-2019. METHODS: We obtained MDD and attributable risk factors data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We used joinpoint regression model to assess the temporal trend in MDD burden, and age-period-cohort model to measure the effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDD incidence rate. We utilized population attributable fractions (PAFs) to estimate the specific proportions of MDD burden attributed to given risk factors. RESULTS: During 1990-2019, the global number of MDD incident cases, prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) increased by 59.10%, 59.57% and 58.57%, respectively. Whereas the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of MDD decreased during 1990-2019. The ASIR, ASPR and ASDR in women were 1.62, 1.62 and 1.60 times as that in men in 2019, respectively. The highest age-specific incidence, prevalence and DALYs rate occurred at the age of 60-64 in women, and at the age of 75-84 in men, but the maximum increasing trends in these age-specific rates occurred at the age of 5-9. Population living during 2000-2004 had higher risk of MDD. MDD burden varied by socio-demographic index (SDI), regions and nations. In 2019, low-SDI region, Central sub-Saharan Africa and Uganda had the highest ASIR, ASPR and ASDR. The global PAFs of intimate partner violence (IPV), childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and bullying victimization (BV) were 8.43%, 5.46% and 4.86% in 2019, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past 30 years, the global ASIR, ASPR and ASDR of MDD had decreased trends, while the burden of MDD was still serious, and multiple disparities in MDD burden remarkably existed. Women, elderly and populations living during 2000-2004 and in low-SDI regions, had more severe burden of MDD. Children were more susceptible to MDD. Up to 18.75% of global MDD burden would be eliminated through early preventing against IPV, CSA and BV. Tailored strategies-and-measures in different regions and demographic groups based on findings in this studywould be urgently needed to eliminate the impacts of modifiable risk factors on MDD, and then mitigate the burden of MDD.

Assessing trends and burden of occupational exposure to asbestos in the United States: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the trends and burden of occupational exposure to asbestos in the United States (U.S.) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on mortality rates, geographic distribution, age and sex patterns, and causes of death. METHODS: Data on the number of deaths attributable to occupational exposure to asbestos were collected from 1990 to 2019 in the U.S. Joinpoint analysis was conducted to assess trends over time, and regression models were applied to calculate annual percentage changes (APC) and annual average percentage changes (AAPC). Geographic distribution was examined using mapping techniques. Age and sex patterns were analyzed, and causes of death were identified based on available data. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the overall number of deaths due to occupational exposure to asbestos in the U.S. increased by 20.2%. However, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) exhibited a decline over the same period. Geographic analysis revealed differences in the number of deaths across states in 2019, with California reporting the highest number of fatalities. Age-specific mortality and DALYs showed an increase with age, peaking in older age groups. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer were the leading causes of death attributed to asbestos exposure, with increasing trends observed over the past five years. CONCLUSION: The study highlights significant trends and burden in occupational exposure to asbestos in the U.S., including overall increases in mortality rates, declining ASMR and ASDR, geographic disparities, age and sex patterns, and shifts in causes of death. These findings underscore the importance of continued monitoring and preventive measures to mitigate the burden of asbestos-related diseases.

Trends and projections of the global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2030.

Background: We aimed to explore the burden of thyroid cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2019 and to project its future trends from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Based on annual data on thyroid cancer cases from 1990 to 2019 available in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated the age-standardised incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for thyroid cancer. We used the estimated annual percentage change (EPAC) to quantify the temporal trends in these age-standardised rates from 1990 to 2019 and applied generalised additive models to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Results: The global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 1990 to 2019, with a higher overall disease burden in women than in men at both study time points. The male-to-female ratios for the ASIR increased from 0.41 in 1990 to 0.51 in 2019, while the ratio for the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.60 to 0.82. The models predicted the United Arab Emirates would have the fastest rising trend in both the ASIR (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) = 4.19) and age-standardised DALY rate (EAPC = 4.36) in 2020-30, while Saint Kitts and Nevis will have the fastest rising trend in the ASDR (EAPC = 2.29). Meanwhile, the growth trends for the ASDR and age-standardised DALY rate are projected to increase across countries in this period. A correlation analysis of the global burden of thyroid cancer between 1990-2019 and 2020-30 showed a significant positive correlation between the increase in the ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in low-SDI and low-middle-SDI countries. Conclusions: The global burden of thyroid cancer is increasing, especially in the female population and in low-middle-SDI regions, underscoring a need to target them for effective prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

Global trends and differences in the burden of alcohol use disorders attributable to childhood sexual abuse by sex, age, and socio-demographic index: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) is a severe global problem associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Previous studies have confirmed this relationship; however, there is a lack of research on the disease burden of AUD attributable to CSA. OBJECTIVE: To analyze global spatiotemporal trends and differences in the disease burden of AUD attributable to CSA and its relationship with age, sex, and the sociodemographic index (SDI). PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Public Database. METHODS: Summary exposure value (SEV) was used to evaluate CSA. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY), years lived with disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL), and their annual rates of change were used to evaluate disease burden. Cluster analysis based on Ward's method was used to examine the global burden associated with age, sex, and SDI. A 95 % uncertainty intervals (UI), excluding 0, was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In 2019, 1.63 million (95 % UI 0.23-3.90 million) DALYs of AUD were caused by CSA and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of DALY was 19.77 (95 % UI 2.78-47.46) globally. Annual rates of change in DALY of people over 65 years of age increased from 1990 to 2019 in all regions except the High-middle SDI regions. The ASRs of DALY of females in High SDI regions, were always at a much higher level than other SDI regions, and showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019 (DALY 1990: 20.38 [95 % UI 2.87-47.77], 2019: 23.61 [95 % UI 3.55-54.94]). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial geographical differences were observed in the burden of AUD attributable to CSA. The level of CSA exposure was inconsistent with the related burden of AUD in different regions according to the sociodemographic index. The burden of disease increased in the elderly population and in females in high sociodemographic index regions.

Global, regional, and national levels and trends in burden of urticaria: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Background: Urticaria places a significant burden on individuals and society due to its widespread nature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the burden of urticaria in different regions and nations by analysing data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD 2019), with the goal of providing information to health care policymakers. Methods: By utilising data from the GBD 2019 database, this study analysed metrics such as incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised rate (ASR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) globally and across 204 countries and regions. The data was further stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Results: In 2019, global incidence cases, prevalence cases, and overall disease burden as measured by DALYs all increased. The distribution of the burden exhibited marked geographical heterogeneity. At the regional level, the burden is highest in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with the strongest growth in South Asia, compared with a decline in the high-income Asia Pacific. At the country level, Nepal reports the highest burden of urticaria, while Portugal has the lowest. Gender and age analyses showed that the burden of urticaria is higher in females than in males, with urticaria cases declining with age, especially in children, and picking up among the elderly. The study also finds a correlation between the burden of urticaria and the SDI, with the central part of the SDI showing a consistent increasing trend. Conclusion: This study found that the global burden of urticaria has risen from 1990 to 2019. Factors like geographic location, gender, and SDI influenced the urticaria burden. Overall, these results offer a resource to guide public health strategies seeking to reduce the burden of urticaria.

Global, regional, and national burdens of cancer in children aged zero to nine years from 1990 to 2019.

Background: The description of long-term trends in the cancer burden among children aged zero to nine years from 1990 to 2019 reveals significant changes in children's health. It helps in resource allocation and health policy planning. We analysed data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by sex and age group in children aged zero to nine. Methods: Estimates of DALYs for children aged zero to nine years, appeared as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study 2019, by age, sex, and location for 1990-2019. We also provided estimations by the sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, a systematic measure to indicate educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. We used age-period-cohort models to investigate paediatric cancers prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates and auto-regressive integrated moving average models to predict cancer in children of different age groups in males and females. Results: A total of 6 224 010 DALY numbers for cancer cases occurred globally in 2019 among children aged zero to nine years. Additionally, the incidence of paediatric cancers in 2019 in the middle SDI countries was the highest, including 60 662 cases, and the highest mortality and DALYs cases of paediatric cancers were in the low SDI countries (25 502 and 2 199 790). The joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the trend of total cancer burden in age-standardised mortality rates and age-standardised DALYs rates showed a significant decrease with an average annual percentage change of -2.10 and -2.03 from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, the paediatric cancer spectrum was changing. Other malignant neoplasms and other leukaemia were the major components of cancer in all age groups of children. Conclusions: The disease burden in children aged zero to nine years decreased significantly globally from 1990 to 2019. However, the overall prediction of childhood cancer increased slightly from 2020 to 2040. Our findings may help guide investments and inform policies. This highlights the necessity to improve current treatment measures and establish effective prevention strategies to reduce the cancer burden among children aged zero to nine years.

Epidemiological variations and trends in glaucoma burden in the Belt and Road countries.

BACKGROUND: Analyzing the glaucoma burden in "Belt and Road" (B&R) countries based on age, gender, and risk factors from 1990 to 2019 in order to provide evidence for future prevention strategies. METHODS: We applied global burden of disease(GBD) 2019 to compare glaucoma prevalence and Years lived with disabilities (YLDs) from 1990 to 2019 in the B&R countries. Trends of disease burden between 1990 and 2019 were evaluated using the average annual percent change and the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) were reported. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, most B&R countries showed a downward trend in age-standardized prevalence and YLDs (all P < 0.05). Additionally, only the age-standardized YLDs in males of Pakistan has a 0.35% increase (95%CI:0.19,0.50,P < 0.001), and most B&R countries has a decline(all P < 0.05) in age-standardized YLDs in every 5 years age group after 45 years old except for Pakistan(45-79 years and > 85 years), Malaysia(75-84 years), Brunei Darussalam(45-49 years), Afghanistan(70-79 years). Finally, in all Central Asian countries, the age-standardized YLDs due to glaucoma caused by fasting hyperglycemia demonstrated have an increase between 1990 and 2019 (all P < 0.05), but Armenia and Mongolia have a decrease between 2010 and 2019 (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of glaucoma continues to pose a significant burden across regions, ages, and genders in countries along the "B&R". It is imperative for the "B&R" nations to enhance health cooperation in order to collaboratively tackle the challenges associated with glaucoma.

Burden of depression in adolescents in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a highly prevalent and disabling mental health condition among adolescents. The epidemiology of depression in adolescents has been changing over time, reflecting changes in risk factors as well as disease concepts and diagnosis. However, few studies have characterized the longitudinal epidemiology of depression in adolescents. Understanding trends of disease burden provides key insights to improve resource allocation and design targeted interventions for this vulnerable population. The Western Pacific Region (WPR) is home to over 1.3 billion people with tremendous diversity in culture and socioeconomic development. The epidemiology of adolescent depression in WPR remains largely unknown. In this study, we aimed to estimate trends of disease burden attributable to depressive disorders among adolescents aged 10-24 years in WPR countries between 1990 and 2019, and to investigate period and cohort effects using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database. METHODS: The study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, concentrating on adolescents aged 10 to 24 years with depression. We conducted an in-depth analysis of depression, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), across diverse demographics such as regions, ages, genders, and socio-demographic indexes, spanning from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS: The analysis found decreasing trends in the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of adolescent depression in the WPR between 1990-2019, although some countries like Australia and Malaysia showed increases. Specifically, the prevalence of adolescent depression in the region decreased from 9,347,861.6 cases in 1990 to 5,551,341.1 cases in 2019. The incidence rate declined from 2,508.6 per 100,000 adolescents in 1990 to 1,947.9 per 100,000 in 2019. DALYs decreased from 371.9 per 100,000 in 1990 to ASR 299.7 per 100,000 in 2019. CONCLUSION: This study found an overall decreasing trend in adolescent depression burden in the Western Pacific Region between 1990 and 2019, with heterogeneity across countries. For 30 years, the 20-24 age group accounted for the majority of depression among adolescents Widening inequality in depression burden requires policy attention. Further analysis of risk factors contributing to epidemiological trends is warranted to inform prevention strategies targeting adolescent mental health in the region.

Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990-2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long-term trend over the next 25 years. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32-0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. CONCLUSION: The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.