Methods for Using Race and Ethnicity in Prediction Models for Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility.

Importance: Using race and ethnicity in clinical prediction models can reduce or inadvertently increase racial and ethnic disparities in medical decisions. Objective: To compare eligibility for lung cancer screening in a contemporary representative US population by refitting the life-years gained from screening-computed tomography (LYFS-CT) model to exclude race and ethnicity vs a counterfactual eligibility approach that recalculates life expectancy for racial and ethnic minority individuals using the same covariates but substitutes White race and uses the higher predicted life expectancy, ensuring that historically underserved groups are not penalized. Design, Setting, and Participants: The 2 submodels composing LYFS-CT NoRace were refit and externally validated without race and ethnicity: the lung cancer death submodel in participants of a large clinical trial (recruited 1993-2001; followed up until December 31, 2009) who ever smoked (n = 39 180) and the all-cause mortality submodel in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1997-2001 participants aged 40 to 80 years who ever smoked (n = 74 842, followed up until December 31, 2006). Screening eligibility was examined in NHIS 2015-2018 participants aged 50 to 80 years who ever smoked. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to September 2022. Exposure: Including and removing race and ethnicity (African American, Asian American, Hispanic American, White) in each LYFS-CT submodel. Main Outcomes and Measures: By race and ethnicity: calibration of the LYFS-CT NoRace model and the counterfactual approach (ratio of expected to observed [E/O] outcomes), US individuals eligible for screening, predicted days of life gained from screening by LYFS-CT. Results: The NHIS 2015-2018 included 25 601 individuals aged 50 to 80 years who ever smoked (2769 African American, 649 Asian American, 1855 Hispanic American, and 20 328 White individuals). Removing race and ethnicity from the submodels underestimated lung cancer death risk (expected/observed [E/O], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) and all-cause mortality (E/O, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.94) in African American individuals. It also overestimated mortality in Hispanic American (E/O, 1.08, 95% CI, 1.00-1.16) and Asian American individuals (E/O, 1.14, 95% CI, 1.01-1.30). Consequently, the LYFS-CT NoRace model increased Hispanic American and Asian American eligibility by 108% and 73%, respectively, while reducing African American eligibility by 39%. Using LYFS-CT with the counterfactual all-cause mortality model better maintained calibration across groups and increased African American eligibility by 13% without reducing eligibility for Hispanic American and Asian American individuals. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, removing race and ethnicity miscalibrated LYFS-CT submodels and substantially reduced African American eligibility for lung cancer screening. Under counterfactual eligibility, no one became ineligible, and African American eligibility increased, demonstrating the potential for maintaining model accuracy while reducing disparities.

Transitions Between Preexposure Prophylaxis Eligibility States and HIV Infection in the Lisbon Cohort of HIV-Negative Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Multistate Model Analysis.

We aimed to describe transitions between preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) eligibility and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM). We used data from 1,885 MSM, who had not used PrEP, enrolled in the Lisbon Cohort of MSM, with at least 2 consecutive measurements of PrEP eligibility from 2014-2020. A time-homogeneous Markov multistate model was applied to describe the transitions between states of PrEP eligibility-eligible and ineligible-and from these to HIV infection (HIV). The intensities of the transitions were closer for ineligible-to-eligible and eligible-to-ineligible transitions (intensity ratio, 1.107, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.080, 1.176), while the intensity of the eligible-to-HIV transition was higher than that for ineligible-to-HIV transition (intensity ratio, 9.558, 95% CI: 0.738, 65.048). The probabilities of transitions increased with time; for 90 days, the probabilities were similar for the ineligible-to-eligible and eligible-to-ineligible transitions (0.285 (95% CI: 0.252, 0.319) vs. 0.258 (95% CI: 0.228, 0.287)), while the eligible-to-HIV transition was more likely than ineligible-to-HIV (0.004 (95% CI: 0.003, 0.007) vs. 0.001 (95% CI: 0.001, 0.008)) but tended to become closer with time. Being classified as ineligible was a short-term indicator of a lower probability of acquiring HIV. Once an individual moved to eligible, he was at a higher risk of seroconversion, demanding a timely delivery ofPrEP.

Impact of Medicaid Eligibility Changes on Long-acting Reversible Contraception Use in Massachusetts and Maine.

BACKGROUND: Availability of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) is an important indicator of high-quality women's health care. There are limited data on the impact of state-level Medicaid eligibility changes on LARC use. STUDY DESIGN: We used All-Payers Claims Databases to examine LARC insertions among women enrolled in Medicaid in Massachusetts, which expanded Medicaid in 2014, and Maine, which restricted Medicaid eligibility in 2013. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to determine the impact of Medicaid eligibility changes on level and trends in LARC insertions in these states. RESULTS: In Massachusetts, graphical evidence demonstrates that after Medicaid expansion, there was an immediate increase in mean monthly LARC insertions and insertions per 1000 enrollees. In ITS regression adjusting for age, LARC insertions per enrollee increased immediately after Medicaid expansion by 32% (P<0.001). After expansion, as the number of enrollees continued to rise, mean monthly LARC insertions rose, but there was a slightly decreasing trend in insertions per enrollee by 1% per month (P<0.001). In Maine, graphical evidence shows that initial reductions in Medicaid eligibility were associated with an immediate drop in LARC insertion numbers and rates per 1000, with ITS regression demonstrating an immediate 17% drop in insertions per enrollee (P<0.001). As Maine's Medicaid enrollment declined from 2013 to 2015, the number of LARC insertions remained flat, leading to an increasing trend in insertions per enrollee, similar to pre-2013 trends (P=0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid eligibility changes were associated with immediate changes in LARC uptake. Medicaid expansion may help ensure access to this effective contraceptive method.

Association of Medicaid vs Marketplace Eligibility on Maternal Coverage and Access With Prenatal and Postpartum Care.

Importance: Policy makers are considering insurance expansions to improve maternal health. The tradeoffs between expanding Medicaid or subsidized private insurance for maternal coverage and care are unknown. Objective: To compare maternal coverage and care by Medicaid vs marketplace eligibility. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study using a difference-in-difference research design was conducted from March 14, 2020, to April 22, 2021. Maternal coverage and care use were compared among women with family incomes 100% to 138% of the federal poverty level (FPL) residing in 10 Medicaid expansion sites (exposure group) who gained Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act and in 5 nonexpansion sites (comparison group) who gained marketplace eligibility before (2011-2013) and after (2015-2018) insurance expansion implementation. Participants included women aged 18 years or older from the 2011-2018 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System survey. Exposures: Eligibility for Medicaid or marketplace coverage under the Affordable Care Act. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included coverage in the preconception and postpartum periods, early and adequate prenatal care, and postpartum checkups and effective contraceptive use. Results: The study population included 11 432 women age 18 years and older (32% age 18-24 years, 33% age 25-29 years, 35% age ≥30 years) with incomes 100% to 138% FPL: 7586 in a Medicaid state (exposure group) and 3846 in a nonexpansion marketplace state (comparison group). Women in marketplace states were younger, had higher educational level and marriage rates, and had less racial and ethnic diversity. Medicaid relative to marketplace eligibility was associated with increased Medicaid coverage (20.3 percentage points; 95% CI, 12.8 to 30.0 percentage points), decreased private insurance coverage (-10.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -13.3 to -7.5 percentage points), and decreased uninsurance (-8.7 percentage points; 95% CI, -20.1 to -0.1 percentage points) in the preconception period, increased postpartum Medicaid (17.4 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.7 to 34.3 percentage points) and increased adequate prenatal care (4.4 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.1 to 11.0 percentage points) in difference-in-difference models. No evidence of significant differences in early prenatal care, postpartum check-ups, or postpartum contraception was identified. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, eligibility for Medicaid was associated with increased Medicaid, lower preconception uninsurance, and increased adequate prenatal care use. The lower rates of preconception uninsurance among Medicaid-eligible women suggest that women with low incomes were facing barriers to marketplace enrollment, underscoring the potential importance of reducing financial barriers for the population with low incomes.

HIV Prevention Program Eligibility Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women - Namibia, 2019.

The U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) relies on comprehensive and reliable population data to implement interventions to reduce HIV transmission in high-incidence areas among populations disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. Adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa account for a disproportionate number of new HIV infections compared with their male peers (1). The DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored, and Safe) program includes multisectoral, layered interventions aimed at reducing factors that contribute to vulnerability to HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women in PEPFAR-supported sub-Saharan African countries (1). Namibia, a southern African country with a population of approximately 2.55 million among whom approximately 8% live with HIV infection, had their DREAMS program first implemented in 2017* (2,3). Data from the 2019 Namibia Violence Against Children and Youth Survey (VACS), the most recent and comprehensive nationally representative data source available to study the epidemiology of violence and other HIV risk factors, were used to estimate the percentage of adolescent girls and young women aged 13-24 years who would be eligible for DREAMS program services. The prevalence of individual DREAMS eligibility criteria, which comprise known age-specific risk factors associated with HIV acquisition, were estimated by age group. Among all adolescent girls and young women in Namibia, 62% were eligible for DREAMS based on meeting at least one criterion. Common eligibility criteria included adverse childhood experiences, specifically exposure to physical, emotional, and sexual violence and being an orphan;† and high-risk behaviors, such as early alcohol use,§ recent heavy alcohol use,¶ and infrequent condom use.** Using VACS data to estimate the prevalence of HIV risk factors and identify adolescent girls and young women at elevated risk for HIV acquisition in countries like Namibia with high HIV-incidence can inform programs and policies aimed at improving the well-being of these adolescent girls and young women and help control the HIV epidemics in these countries.

Stratification and management of patients ineligible for lung cancer screening.

This study identifies participants ineligible for lung cancer screening with the greatest likelihood of future eligibility. Lung cancer risk in participants enrolled in longitudinal lung screening was assessed using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian lung cancer risk calculator (PLCOm2012) at two timepoints: baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2). Separate analyses were performed on four PLCOm2012 eligibility thresholds (3.25%, 2.00%, 1.50%, and 1.00%); only participants with a T1 risk less than the threshold were included in that analysis. Cox-models identified T1 risk factors associated with screen-eligibility at T2. Three models, applying differing assumptions of participant behavior, predicted future eligibility and were benchmarked against the observed cohort. Nine hundred and fifty-six participants had a T1 risk <3.25%; at 2.00% n= 755; at 1.50% n= 652; at 1.00% n= 484. Lung cancer risk increased over time in most screen-ineligible participants. However, risk increased much faster in participants who became screen-eligible at T2 compared to those who remained screen-ineligible (median per-year increase of 0.35% versus 0.02%, when using a 3.25% threshold). Participants smoking for >30 years, current smokers, less educated participants, and those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at T1 were significantly more likely to become screen-eligible. New diagnoses of COPD and/or non-lung cancers between T1 and T2 precipitated eligibility in a subset of participants. The prediction model that assumed health behaviors observed at T1 continued to T2 reasonably predicted changes in lung cancer risk. This prediction model and the identified baseline risk factors can identify screen-ineligible participants who should be closely followed for future eligibility.

Eligibility for cervical cancer screening exit: Comparison of a national and safety net cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine eligibility for discontinuation of cervical cancer screening. METHODS: Women aged 64 with employer-sponsored insurance enrolled in a national database between 2016 and 2018, and those aged 64-66 receiving primary care at a safety net health center in 2019 were included. Patients were evaluated for screening exit eligibility by current guidelines: no evidence of cervical cancer or HIV-positive status and no evidence of cervical precancer in the past 25 years, and had evidence of either hysterectomy with removal of the cervix or evidence of fulfilling screening exit criteria, defined as two HPV screening tests or HPV plus Pap co-tests or three Pap tests within the past 10 years without evidence of an abnormal result. RESULTS: Of the 590,901 women in the national claims database, 131,059 (22.2%) were eligible to exit due to hysterectomy (1.6%) or negative screening (20.6%). Of the 1544 women from the safety net health center, 528 (34.2%) were eligible to exit due to hysterectomy (9.3%) or negative screening (24.9%). Most women did not have sufficient data available to fulfill exit criteria: 382,509 (64.7%) in the national database and 875 (56.7%) in the safety net hospital system. Even among women with 10 years of insurance claims data, only 41.5% qualified to discontinue screening. CONCLUSIONS: Examining insurance claims in a national database and electronic medical records at a safety net institution led to remarkably similar findings: two thirds of women fail to qualify for screening exit. Additional steps to ensure eligibility prior to screening exit may be necessary to decrease preventable cervical cancers among women aged >65. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.

Association of the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model With Disparities in the Use of Total Hip and Total Knee Replacement.

Importance: The Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model is Medicare's mandatory bundled payment reform to improve quality and spending for beneficiaries who need total hip replacement (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR), yet it does not account for sociodemographic risk factors such as race/ethnicity and income. Results of this study could be the basis for a Medicare payment reform that addresses inequities in joint replacement care. Objective: To examine the association of the CJR model with racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the use of elective THR and TKR among older Medicare beneficiaries after accounting for the population of patients who were at risk or eligible for these surgical procedures. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the 2013 to 2017 national Medicare data and multivariable logistic regressions with triple-differences estimation. Medicare beneficiaries who were aged 65 to 99 years, entitled to Medicare, alive at the end of the calendar year, and residing either in the 67 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) mandated to participate in the CJR model or in the 104 control MSAs were identified. A subset of Medicare beneficiaries with a diagnosis of arthritis underwent THR or TKR. Data were analyzed from March to December 2020. Exposures: Implementation of the CJR model in 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were separate binary indicators for whether a beneficiary underwent THR or TKR. Key independent variables were MSA treatment status, pre- or post-CJR model implementation phase, combination of race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic beneficiaries) and dual eligibility, and their interactions. Logistic regression models were used to control for patient characteristics, MSA fixed effects, and time trends. Results: The 2013 cohort included 4 447 205 Medicare beneficiaries, of which 2 025 357 (45.5%) resided in MSAs with the CJR model. The cohort's mean (SD) age was 77.18 (7.95) years, and it was composed of 2 951 140 female (66.4%), 3 928 432 non-Hispanic White (88.3%), and 657 073 dually eligible (14.8%) beneficiaries. Before the CJR model implementation, rates were highest among non-Hispanic White non-dual-eligible beneficiaries at 1.25% (95% CI, 1.24%-1.26%) for THR use and 2.28% (95% CI, 2.26%-2.29%) for TKR use in MSAs with CJR model. Compared with MSAs without the CJR model and the analogous race/ethnicity and dual-eligibility group, the CJR model was associated with a 0.10 (95% CI, 0.05-0.15; P < .001) percentage-point increase in TKR use for non-Hispanic White non-dual-eligible beneficiaries, a 0.11 (95% CI, 0.004-0.21; P = .04) percentage-point increase for non-Hispanic White dual-eligible beneficiaries, a 0.15 (95% CI, -0.29 to -0.01; P = .04) percentage-point decrease for non-Hispanic Black non-dual-eligible beneficiaries, and a 0.18 (95% CI, -0.34 to -0.01; P = .03) percentage-point decrease for non-Hispanic Black dual-eligible beneficiaries. These CJR model-associated changes in TKR use were 0.25 (95% CI, -0.40 to -0.10; P = .001) percentage points lower for non-Hispanic Black non-dual-eligible beneficiaries and 0.27 (95% CI, -0.45 to -0.10; P = .002) percentage points lower for non-Hispanic Black dual-eligible beneficiaries compared with the model-associated changes for non-Hispanic White non-dual-eligible beneficiaries. No association was found between the CJR model and a widening of the THR use gap among race/ethnicity and dual eligibility groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study indicate that the CJR model was associated with a modest increase in the already substantial difference in TKR use among non-Hispanic Black vs non-Hispanic White beneficiaries; no difference was found for THR. These findings support the widespread concern that payment reform has the potential to exacerbate disparities in access to joint replacement care.

Racial and ethnic disparities in benefits eligibility and spending among adults on the autism spectrum: A cohort study using the Medicare Medicaid Linked Enrollees Analytic Data Source.

BACKGROUND: Research on children and youth on the autism spectrum reveal racial and ethnic disparities in access to healthcare and utilization, but there is less research to understand how disparities persist as autistic adults age. We need to understand racial-ethnic inequities in obtaining eligibility for Medicare and/or Medicaid coverage, as well as inequities in spending for autistic enrollees under these public programs. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional cohort study of U.S. publicly-insured adults on the autism spectrum using 2012 Medicare-Medicaid Linked Enrollee Analytic Data Source (n = 172,071). We evaluated differences in race-ethnicity by eligibility (Medicare-only, Medicaid-only, Dual-Eligible) and spending. FINDINGS: The majority of white adults (49.87%) were full-dual eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. In contrast, only 37.53% of Black, 34.65% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 35.94% of Hispanic beneficiaries were full-dual eligible for Medicare and Medicare, with most only eligible for state-funded Medicaid. Adjusted logistic models controlling for gender, intellectual disability status, costly chronic condition, rural status, county median income, and geographic region of residence revealed that Black beneficiaries were significantly less likely than white beneficiaries to be dual-eligible across all ages. Across these three beneficiary types, total spending exceeded $10 billion. Annual total expenditures median expenditures for full-dual and Medicaid-only eligible beneficiaries were higher among white beneficiaries as compared with Black beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: Public health insurance in the U.S. including Medicare and Medicaid aim to reduce inequities in access to healthcare that might exist due to disability, income, or old age. In contrast to these ideals, our study reveals that racial-ethnic minority autistic adults who were eligible for public insurance across all U.S. states in 2012 experience disparities in eligibility for specific programs and spending. We call for further evaluation of system supports that promote clear pathways to disability and public health insurance among those with lifelong developmental disabilities.

Comparing Driving Miles for Department of Veterans Affairs-delivered Versus Department of Veterans Affairs-purchased Cataract Surgery.

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Choice Act of 2014 increased the number of Veterans eligible for Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)-purchased care delivered in non-VA community care (CC) facilities. Driving >40 miles from home to a VA facility is a key eligibility criterion for CC. It remains unclear whether this policy change improved geographical access by reducing drive distance for Veterans. OBJECTIVES: Describe the driving distance for Veterans receiving cataract surgery in VA and CC facilities, and if they visited the closest-to-home facility or if they drove to farther facilities. SUBJECTS: Veterans who had cataract surgery in federal fiscal year 2015. MEASURES: We calculated driving miles to the Closest VA and CC facilities that performed cataract surgeries, and to the location where Veterans received care. RESULTS: A total of 61,746 Veterans received 83,875 cataract surgeries. More than 50% of CC surgeries occurred farther than the Closest CC facility providing cataract surgery (median Closest CC facility 8.7 miles vs. Actual CC facility, 19.7 miles). Most (57%) Veterans receiving cataract surgery at a VA facility used the Closest VA facility (median Closest VA facility 28.1 miles vs. Actual VA facility at 31.2 miles). In all, 26.1% of CC procedures occurred in facilities farther away than the Closest VA facility. CONCLUSIONS: Although many Veterans drove farther than needed to get cataract surgery in CC, this was not true for obtaining care in the VA. Our findings suggest that there may be additional reasons, besides driving distance, that affect whether Veterans choose CC and, if they do, where they seek CC.

Association of Dual Eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid With Heart Failure Quality and Outcomes Among Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure Hospitals.

Importance: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services uses a new peer group-based payment system to compare hospital performance as part of its Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program, which classifies hospitals into quintiles based on their share of dual-eligible beneficiaries for Medicare and Medicaid. However, little is known about the association of a hospital's share of dual-eligible beneficiaries with the quality of care and outcomes for patients with heart failure (HF). Objective: To evaluate the association between a hospital's proportion of patients with dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid and HF quality of care and outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study evaluated 436 196 patients hospitalized for HF using the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017. The analysis included patients 65 years or older with available data on dual-eligibility status. Hospitals were divided into quintiles based on their share of dual-eligible patients. Quality and outcomes were analyzed using unadjusted and adjusted multivariable logistic regression models. Data analysis was performed from April 1, 2020, to January 1, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause readmission. The secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day HF readmissions, 30-day all-cause mortality, and HF process of care measures. Results: A total of 436 196 hospitalized HF patients 65 years or older from 535 hospital sites were identified, with 258 995 hospitalized patients (median age, 81 years; interquartile range, 74-87 years) at 455 sites meeting the study criteria and included in the primary analysis. A total of 258 995 HF hospitalizations from 455 sites were included in the primary analysis of the study. Hospitals in the highest dual-eligibility quintile (quintile 5) tended to care for patients who were younger, were more likely to be female, belonged to racial minority groups, or were located in rural areas compared with quintile 1 sites. After multivariable adjustment, hospitals with the highest quintile of dual eligibility were associated with lower rates of key process measures, including evidence-based ß-blocker prescription, measure of left ventricular function, and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter. Differences in clinical outcomes were seen with higher 30-day all-cause (adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.14-1.35) and HF (adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.27) readmissions in higher dual-eligible quintile 5 sites compared with quintile 1 sites. Risk-adjusted in-hospital and 30-day mortality did not significantly differ in quintile 1 vs quintile 5 hospitals. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, hospitals with a higher share of dual-eligible patients provided care with lower rates of some of the key HF quality of care process measures and with higher 30-day all-cause or HF readmissions compared with lower dual-eligibility quintile hospitals.

The effects of Medicaid on access to care and adherence to recommended preventive services.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of Medicaid enrollment on access to care and adherence to recommended preventive services. DATA SOURCE: 2005-2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component. STUDY DESIGN: We examined several access measures and utilization of several preventive services within the past year and within the time frame recommended by the United States Preventive Services Task Force, if more than a year. We estimated local average treatment effects of Medicaid enrollment using a new, two-stage regression model developed by Nguimkeu, Denteh, and Tchernis. This model accounts for both endogenous and underreported Medicaid enrollment by using a partial observability bivariate probit regression as the first stage. We identify the model with an exogenous measure of Medicaid eligibility, the simulated Medicaid eligibility rate by state, year, and parents vs childless adults. A wide range of changes in Medicaid eligibility occurred during the time period studied. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Sample of low-income, nonelderly adults not receiving disability benefits. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Medicaid enrollment decreased the probability of having unmet needs for medical care by 7.5 percentage points and the probability of experiencing delays getting prescription drugs by 7.7 percentage points. Medicaid enrollment increased the probability of having a usual source of care by 16.5 percentage points, the probability of having a routine checkup by 17.1 percentage points, and the probability of having a flu shot in past year by 12.6 percentage points. CONCLUSION: Medicaid enrollment increased access to care and use of some preventive services. Additional research is needed on impacts for subgroups, such as parents, childless adults, and the smaller and generally older populations for whom screening tests are recommended.

The Impact of the New Hypertension Guidelines to Low-Dose Aspirin Prophylaxis Eligibility for the Prevention of Preeclampsia: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) published new guidelines which lower the cut-off for hypertension. We sought to evaluate the impact of these guidelines to cost and benefit of various low-dose aspirin prophylaxis approaches. STUDY DESIGN: Decision tree analysis was created using R software to evaluate four approaches to aspirin prophylaxis in the United States: no aspirin, United States Preventive Service Task Force (USPSTF) with Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC7) hypertension guidelines, USPSTF with ACC/AHA hypertension guidelines, as well as universal aspirin prophylaxis. This model was executed to simulate a hypothetical cohort of 4 million pregnant women in the United States. RESULTS: The new guidelines would expand the aspirin eligibility by 8% (76,953 women) in the USPSTF guidelines. Even with this increased eligibility, the USPSTF guidelines continue to be the approach with the most cost savings ($386.5 million) when compared with universal aspirin and no aspirin prophylaxis. The new hypertension guidelines are projected to increase the cost savings of the USPSTF approach by $9.4 million. CONCLUSION: Despite the small change in aspirin prophylaxis, using ACC/AHA definition of hypertension still results in an annual cost-saving of $9.4 million in the United States when compared with JNC7.

Association of Mandatory Bundled Payments for Joint Replacement With Postacute Care Outcomes Among Medicare and Medicaid Dual Eligible Patients.

IMPORTANCE: The Medicare comprehensive care for joint replacement (CJR) model, a mandatory bundled payment program started in April 2016 for hospitals in randomly selected metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), may help reduce postacute care (PAC) use and episode costs, but its impact on disparities between Medicaid and non-Medicaid beneficiaries is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine effects of the CJR program on differences (or disparities) in PAC use and outcomes by Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility status. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational cohort study of 2013-2017, based on difference-in-differences (DID) analyses on Medicare data for 1,239,452 Medicare-only patients, 57,452 dual eligibles with full Medicaid benefits, and 50,189 dual eligibles with partial Medicaid benefits who underwent hip or knee surgery in hospitals of 75 CJR MSAs and 121 control MSAs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk-adjusted differences in rates of institutional PAC [skilled nursing facility (SNF), inpatient rehabilitation, or long-term hospital care] use and readmissions; and for the subgroup of patients discharged to SNF, risk-adjusted differences in SNF length of stay, payments, and quality measured by star ratings, rate of successful discharge to community, and rate of transition to long-stay nursing home resident. RESULTS: The CJR program was associated with reduced institutional PAC use and readmissions for patients in all 3 groups. For example, it was associated with reductions in 90-day readmission rate by 1.8 percentage point [DID estimate=-1.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), -2.6 to -0.9; P<0.001] for Medicare-only patients, by 1.6 percentage points (DID estimate=-1.6; 95% CI, -3.1 to -0.1; P=0.04) for full-benefit dual eligibles, and by 2.0 percentage points (DID estimate=-2.0; 95% CI, -3.6 to -0.4; P=0.01) for partial-benefit dual eligibles. These CJR-associated effects did not differ between dual eligibles (differences in above DID estimates=0.2; 95% CI, -1.4 to 1.7; P=0.81 for full-benefit patients; and -0.3; 95% CI, -1.9 to 1.3; P=0.74 for partial-benefit patients) and Medicare-only patients. Among patients discharged to SNF, the CJR program showed no effect on successful community discharge, transition to long-term care, or their persistent disparities. CONCLUSIONS: The CJR program did not help reduce persistent disparities in readmissions or SNF-specific outcomes related to Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility, likely due to its lack of financial incentives for reduced disparities and improved SNF outcomes.

Eligibility of real-world patients with metastatic breast cancer for clinical trials.

INTRODUCTION: The results of clinical trials in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) are generalized to real-world patients. This study determines the proportion of real-world patients who would be eligible for clinical trials and compares outcomes in eligible versus ineligible patients. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with MBC from 2004 to 2015 in a large Canadian province were included. Patients with one of the following criteria were considered ineligible: the presence of comorbid conditions (anemia, uncontrolled diabetes, heart disease, liver disease, and kidney disease) or a history of immunosuppression or prior malignancy. The likelihood of receiving cancer therapy was analysed using logistic regression models and factors affecting overall survival (OS) were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 1585 patients with MBC were identified. The median age at diagnosis was 63 years. Of these, 512 (32.3%) patients were deemed ineligible in whom the two most common reasons for ineligibility were renal dysfunction (17.2%), and previous immunosuppression (7.8%). In the real world, ineligible patients were less likely to receive chemotherapy (29.5% vs 45.8%; P < 0.001) but not radiation treatment (7.6% vs 9.6%; P = 0.196) or hormonal therapy (57.6% vs 60.6%; P = 0.261). The 5-year OS of ineligible patients who received systemic therapy in the real-world was significantly better than those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being ineligible for clinical trials based on common eligibility criteria, many real-world patients receive systemic treatment and derive possible benefit. Broadening of inclusion criteria in clinical trials will enhance the representation of real-world patients and increase the generalizability of results.

Do Insurance-mandated Precertification Criteria and Insurance Plan Type Determine the Utilization of Bariatric Surgery Among Individuals With Private Insurance?

BACKGROUND: Access to bariatric surgery is restricted by insurers in numerous ways, including by precertification criteria such as 3-6 months preoperative supervised medical weight management and documented 2-year weight history. OBJECTIVES: To investigate if there is an association between the aforementioned precertification criteria, insurance plan type, and the likelihood of undergoing bariatric surgery, after controlling for potential sociodemographic confounders. RESEARCH DESIGN: The study was conducted using the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council's data in 5 counties of Pennsylvania in 2016 and records of preoperative insurance requirements maintained by the Temple University Bariatric Surgery Program.Privately insured bariatric surgery patients and individuals who met the eligibility criteria but did not undergo surgery were identified and 1:1 matched by sex, race, age group, and zip code (n=1054). Univariate tests and logistic regression analysis were utilized for data analysis. RESULTS: The insurance requirement for 3-6 months preoperative supervised medical weight management was associated with smaller odds of undergoing surgery [odds ratio (OR)=0.459; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.253-0.832; P=0.010], after controlling for insurance plan type and the requirement for documented weight history.Preferred provider organization (OR=1.422; 95% CI, 1.063-1.902; P=0.018) and fee-for-service (OR=1.447; 95% CI, 1.021-2.050; P=0.038) plans were associated with greater odds of undergoing surgery, compared with health maintenance organization plans, after controlling for the studied precertification requirements. The documented weight history requirement was not a significant predictor of the odds of undergoing surgery (P=0.132). CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for consideration of insurance benefits design as a determinant of access to bariatric surgery.

COVID-19 Has Increased Medicaid Enrollment, But Short-Term Enrollment Changes Are Unrelated To Job Losses.

The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has resulted in unprecedented job losses in the United States, disrupting health insurance coverage for millions of people. Several models have predicted large increases in Medicaid enrollment among those who have lost jobs, yet the number of Americans who have gained coverage since the pandemic began is unknown. We compiled Medicaid enrollment reports covering the period from March 1 through June 1, 2020, for twenty-six states. We found that in these twenty-six states, Medicaid covered more than 1.7 million additional Americans in roughly a three-month period. Relative changes in Medicaid enrollment differed significantly across states, although enrollment growth was not systemically related to job losses. Our results point to the important effects of state policy differences in the response to COVID-19.

Comorbidity Assessment Is Uneven Across Veterans Health Administration and Medicare for the Same Patient: Implications for Risk Adjustment.

OBJECTIVE: Compare comorbidity identification in Medicare and Veterans Health Administration (VA) data for the purposes of risk adjustment. DATA SOURCES: Analysis of Medicare and VA datasets for dually-enrolled Veterans receiving care in both settings, fiscal years 2010-2014. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of administrative data for a national sample of cancer decedents. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: Comorbidities were evaluated using Elixhauser and Charlson coding algorithms. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clinical comorbidities were more likely to be recorded in Medicare than in VA datasets. Of 42 comorbidities, 36 (86%) were recorded at a different frequency. For example, congestive heart failure was recorded for 22.0% of patients in Medicare data and for 11.3% of patients in VA data (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: There are large differences in comorbidity assessment across VA and Medicare administrative data for the same patient, posing challenges for risk adjustment.

Emergency Medicaid Acquisition Through the Affordable Care Act: The Association Between Hospital Enrollment in California and Hospital Revenue.

BACKGROUND: Hospital Presumptive Eligibility (HPE) is a national policy stemming from the Affordable Care Act that allows qualified hospitals, working with state officials, to enroll eligible patients for temporary Medicaid coverage. Although all states are required to operate an HPE program, hospital participation is elective and variable. It is unclear which hospitals choose to participate in HPE and how participation affects hospital utilization and revenue. OBJECTIVE: We examined hospital factors associated with HPE participation in the state of California and assessed pre and post changes in hospital revenue and utilization for HPE and non-HPE hospitals. RESEARCH DESIGN: We performed a logistic regression to identify hospital attributes associated with HPE participation. We then used a difference in differences methodology with a hospital fixed effect to test whether HPE enrollment was associated with changes in annual revenues by payer source, uncompensated care costs, outpatient visits, and/or discharges. RESULTS: Three quarters (76%) of qualified hospitals elected to participate in HPE by the end of 2018. Hospitals with 100 or more beds had over 10 times greater odds of participating in HPE compared with smaller hospitals. Hospitals that did not provide outpatient care were significantly less likely to participate. Among hospitals included in trend analyses, enrollment in HPE was associated with increased annual net patient Medicaid revenue and decreased uncompensated care charges. We predicted that HPE enrollment was associated with an average of 9.7% (95% confidence interval: 3.4%-16.4%) increase in annual net patient Medicaid revenue. As of 2018, ∼33,000 adults and children were enrolled in California's HPE program per month. CONCLUSION: Hospital enrollment in the HPE program shifted costs from uncompensated care to Medicaid.