ABSTRACT
No disponible
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Health Sciences , Coronavirus 229E, Human , Coronavirus OC43, Human , Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus , Coronavirus NL63, Human , Statistics on Sequelae and Disability , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Genomics/instrumentation , Genomics/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
Apresenta o desenvolvimento mais recente dos métodos de inferência causal utilizados em epidemiologia, em especial as abordagens contrafatual e gráfica, abordando temas como modelo de respostas potenciais para estimativas de efeitos causais via escore de propensão, gráficos acíclicos direcionados, computação G e análise de sensibilidade
Subject(s)
Biostatistics , Causality , Epidemiology and BiostatisticsABSTRACT
No disponible
Subject(s)
Humans , Public Health/education , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Interdisciplinary Studies/trends , Educational Measurement , Curriculum/trends , Spain , Education, Medical/trendsABSTRACT
Objetivos: Describir los conocimientos en bioestadística y epidemiología, así como las actitudes hacia la estadística en estudiantes del posgrado de la facultad de medicina de una universidad española, y explorar la relación entre los conocimientos en bioestadística y epidemiología y las actitudes hacia la estadística. Sujetos y métodos: Estudio observacional, de corte transversal y analítico, de médicos residentes. Para indagar acerca de los conocimientos en bioestadística y epidemiología se aplicó el cuestionario de Novack, y para medir la actitud hacia la estadística, el Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics-28 (SATS-28). Se consideraron las siguientes variables: edad, sexo, especialidad médica y año de residencia. Además, se indagó si poseían conocimientos previos de estadística (cursos realizados y manejo de programa estadístico). Resultados: En la evaluación de los conocimientos en bioestadística y epidemiología el porcentaje de respuestas correctas superó el 70%. El 50% obtuvo 8 puntos o más (sobre 10). En cuanto a las puntuaciones de las subescalas, así como la puntuación global del SATS-28, la mayoría de los posgraduados médicos mantuvieron actitudes positivas hacia la estadística, de modo que la puntuación media fue de 4,43 ± 0,72, que fue significativamente superior a la neutral. Existe una correlación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre la puntuación total en el cuestionario de conocimientos y la puntuación total en el SATS-28. Conclusiones: Los resultados sugieren que los residentes de medicina poseen buenos conocimientos en bioestadística y epidemiología, que se incrementan en quienes tienen una mayor actitud positiva hacia la estadística
Aims: To report the knowledge in biostatistics and epidemiology, as well as attitudes toward statistics in postgraduate students of the Faculty of Medicine of a Spanish university, and to explore the relationship between knowledge in biostatistics and epidemiology and attitudes towards statistics. Subjects and methods: Observational, cross-sectional and analytical study of resident physicians. To investigate the knowledge in biostatistics and epidemiology, the Novack questionnaire was applied and to measure the attitude towards statistics the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics-28 (SATS-28). The following variables were considered: age, sex, medical specialty, year of residence. In addition, it was inquired if they had previous knowledge of statistics (courses conducted and statistical software management). Results: In the evaluation of knowledge in biostatistics and epidemiology, the percentage of correct answers exceeded 70%. 50% got 8 points or more (out of 10). Regarding subscale scores, as well as the overall score of SATS-28, the majority of medical postgraduates maintained positive attitudes towards statistics, so that the average score was 4.43 ± 0.72, being significantly superior to neutral. There is a positive and statistically significant correlation between the total score in the knowledge questionnaire and the total score in the SATS-28. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that medicine residents possess good knowledge in biostatistics and epidemiology, increasing in those with a greater positive attitude towards statistics
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Young Adult , Adult , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Education, Graduate/methods , Knowledge , Education, Graduate/statistics & numerical data , Cross-Sectional Studies , Internship and Residency/statistics & numerical data , Surveys and Questionnaires , 28599ABSTRACT
Fundamento: actualizar de forma constante los métodos, procedimientos y vías para resolver problemas, cuyas soluciones constituyen estereotipos de la estadística inferencial, los cuales no estimulan el pensamiento creador de profesores y estudiantes. Objetivo: ilustrar a través de la resolución de problemas de la estadística inferencial como estimular el pensamiento creador de los profesores de Bioestadística y los estudiantes de la carrera de Medicina. Métodos: se emplean los métodos teóricos: análisis-síntesis, inducción-deducción y abstracción-concreción. Construcción de curvas de la distribución normal, procesos de comprensión, explicación e interpretación. Se aplican métodos, procedimientos y algoritmos matemáticos y estadísticos. Resultados: se elabora una alternativa didáctica para estimular el pensamiento creativo de los profesores y estudiantes de la carrera de Medicina, la cual ilustra la importancia del tema: Introducción a la inferencia estadística. Se integran y se sistematizan conceptos de variable aleatoria, distribución normal, probabilidad, dominio de aceptación, dominio de rechazo, estimaciones puntuales, entre otras. Conclusiones: mediante situaciones de salud a enfrentar por el Médico General en su quehacer profesional, en las cuales se evidencien las necesidades de interpretar los errores de primero y segundo género: α y β. Se consolidan los conocimientos y habilidades relacionadas con los conceptos abordados en el tema: introducción a la estadística inferencial, mediante programas informáticos profesionales se visualizan los resultados alcanzados, según la modelación y la simulación matemática(AU)
Background: constantly update the methods, procedures and ways to solve problems, whose solutions constitute stereotypes of the inferential statistics, which do not stimulate the creative thinking of teachers and students in general. Objective: to illustrate, through the resolution of problems of inferential statistics, how to stimulate the creative thinking of the Biostatistics professors and the students of the Medicine degree. Methods: the theoretical methods used are analysis-synthesis, induction-deduction and abstraction-concretion. Construction of curves of the normal distribution, comprehension processes, explanation and interpretation. Mathematical and statistical methods, procedures and algorithms are applied. Results:a didactic alternative is elaborated to stimulate the creative thought of the professors and students of the Medicine degree, which illustrates the importance of the topic: Introduction to the statistical inference. Concepts of random variable, normal distribution, probability, acceptance domain, rejection domain, point estimates, among others, are integrated and systematized. Conclusions: health situations are created to be faced by the General Practitioner in his professional work that evidences the needs to interpret the errors of first and second gender: α and β. The knowledge and skills related to the concepts addressed in the subject are consolidated: Introduction to Inferential Statistics, through professional computer programs visualize the results achieved, according to modeling and mathematical simulation(AU)
Subject(s)
Humans , Creativity , Students, Medical , Faculty , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Models, TheoreticalABSTRACT
Tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Each year, more than 70 thousand new cases of the disease are registered in Brazil. The aim of this study was to analyze the tendency and the spatial distribution of tuberculosis in the state of Alagoas in the 2010-2015 period and to identify possible areas of under-reported cases or high risk of transmission. This was a mixed ecological study. Six indicators were analyzed: incidence of tuberculosis, incidence of bacilliferous pulmonary tuberculosis, mortality, HIV/TB coinfection, cure and treatment abandonment. In the temporal analysis, the regression model by inflection points (Joinpoint) was used to identify the APC (Annual Percentual Change) and the trends were classified as increasing, stationary and decreasing. In the spatial analysis, Local Empirical Bayesian Method and Global and Local Moran statistics were used. Significance adopted was 5% with a 95% confidence interval (CI 95%). There was a statistically significant tendency of reduction in the general rate of tuberculosis incidence (APC -5.6; p = 0.01) and the proportion of abandonment (APC -10.9; p = 0.048). However, the proportion of coinfection presented a growing tendency (APC 7.9; p = 0.01). The other indicators presented a stationary pattern. The Bayesian method reduced random data fluctuation. The Moran statistic showed a significant autocorrelation for the incidence of general and bacilliferous pulmonary tuberculosis, with a concentration in the Metropolitan Region of Maceió. Tuberculosis represents a major public health problem in Alagoas. The Mesoregion of the Alagoano Sertão (woodlands) appears as an area where under-reporting of cases occurs. The study demonstrated the need to strengthen actions to cope with the disease
A tuberculose é uma doença infectocontagiosa causada pelo Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A cada ano mais de 70 mil casos novos da doença são registrados no Brasil. Buscou-se analisar a tendência e a distribuição espacial da TB no estado de Alagoas no período de 2010 a 2015 e identificar áreas de possível subnotificação de casos ou de alto risco de transmissão. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico misto. Foram analisados seis indicadores: incidência de tuberculose, incidência de tuberculose pulmonar bacilífera, mortalidade, coinfecção HIV/TB, cura e abandono de tratamento. Na análise temporal, aplicou-se o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão (joinpoint) para a identificação do APC (Annual Percentual Change) e classificação da tendência em crescente, estacionária e decrescente. Na análise espacial, utilizou-se a Modelagem Bayesiana Empírica Local e a estatística de Moran Global e Local. Adotou-se significância de 5% e intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC 95%). Observou-se tendência estatisticamente significativa de redução da taxa de incidência de tuberculose geral (APC -5,6; p=0,01) e da proporção de abandono (APC -10,9; p=0,048). Por outro lado, a proporção de coinfecção apresentou tendência de crescimento (APC 7,9; p=0,01). Os demais indicadores apresentaram padrão estacionário. A modelagem bayesiana permitiu a redução da flutuação aleatória dos dados. A estatística de Moran mostrou auto correlação significativa para a incidência de tuberculose geral e pulmonar bacilífera, com concentração na Região Metropolitana de Maceió. A tuberculose representa um problema de saúde pública importante em Alagoas, uma vez que a Mesorregião do Sertão Alagoano se configurou como área de subnotificação de casos demonstrando-se, nesse sentido, a necessidade de fortalecimento das ações de enfrentamento à doença
Subject(s)
Humans , Tuberculosis , Public Health , Epidemiology, Descriptive , Epidemiology and BiostatisticsABSTRACT
Dando continuidade aos artigos da série "Perguntas que você sempre quis fazer, mas nunca teve coragem", que tem como objetivo responder e sugerir referências para o melhor entendimento das principais dúvidas estatísticas levantadas por pesquisadores da área da saúde, este terceiro artigo aborda o contexto epidemiológico. Neste contexto, foram diferenciadas as principais medidas como prevalência, incidência, Odds Ratio (OR), Risco Relativo (RR), Razão de Prevalência (RP) e Hazard Ratio (HR), foi esclarecido o uso de análises por intenção de tratar e análise por protocolo, e também discutidos alguns dos termos comumente utilizados e pouco compreendidos como tipo de amostra, nível de evidência, relevância clínica e estatística, entre outros. (AU)
Continuing the series of articles "Questions you always wanted to ask but never had the courage to," which aims to answer key statistical questions raised by health researchers and suggest references for a better understanding, this third article addresses the epidemiological context. In this context, important measures such as prevalence, incidence, odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), prevalence ratio (PR) and hazard ratio (HR) were differentiated; the use of intention-to-treat analysis and per-protocol analysis was clarified; and some terms commonly used and poorly understood were discussed, such as type of sample, level of evidence, clinical and statistical relevance, among others. (AU)
Subject(s)
Humans , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Random Allocation , Clinical Trials as Topic , Measures of Association, Exposure, Risk or OutcomeABSTRACT
Introducción: Las unidades educativas constituyen un entorno ideal para el diagnóstico de enfermedades y la promoción de salud. Objetivo:Identificar la presencia de enfermedades infecciosas y anemia en los estudiantes de la Unidad Educativa Ezequiel Cárdenas Espinoza de la parroquia Guapán del cantón Azogues en Ecuador y tomar medidas correctivas al respecto.Métodos:Se realizó un estudio observacional, descriptivo, transversal y prospectivo.El universo fueron los316 estudiantes matriculados enla Unidad Educativa Ezequiel Cárdenas Espinoza de la parroquia Guapán del cantón Azogues en Ecuador durante el periodo académico 2013-2014. La muestra fue coincidente pues setrabajó con todos los estudiantes de la institución en edades comprendidas entre 11 y 17 años de edad. Las variables evaluadas fueron edad, sexo y enfermedades más frecuentes para lo cual se utilizó como técnicas el coproparasitario, examen de sangre (hemoglobina), y examen elemental y microscópico de orina.Resultados:El 21.6% de los estudiantes evaluados presentaron parasitosis intestinal. La parasitosis más frecuente fue causada por Ameba histolytica con un 60% y 25% de Ascaris lumbricoides. El sexo predominantemente afectado fue el masculino con el 71%. Solo una estudiante del 8vo curso, correspondiente al 1.3% y un 5% de los estudiantes de 9no curso presentaron anemia. En todos los cursos se diagnosticaron estudiantes con infección de vías urinarias, representando el 15.2%. El 77.1% de los afectados fue del sexo femenino.Conclusiones:La presencia de enfermedades infecciosas y anemia determina el diseño de estrategias educativas a estudiantes, padres de familia y profesores de la institución
Introduction:The educational units constitute an ideal environment for diagnosing diseases and promoting health.Objective:To identify the presence of infectious diseases and anemia in the students of the Ezequiel Cárdenas Espinoza Educational Unit of the Guapan parish of the Azogues canton in Ecuador and to take corrective measures in this regard.Methods:An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional and prospective study was carried out. The universe was the 316 students enrolled in the Ezequiel Cárdenas Espinoza Educational Unit of the Guapan parish of the Azogues canton in Ecuador during the 2013-2014 academic period. The sample was coincident because it worked with all the students of the institution in ages between 11 and 17 years of age. The variables evaluated were age, sex and most frequent diseases for which coproparasitic, blood test (hemoglobin), and elementary and microscopic urine tests were used as techniques.Results:21.6% of the students evaluated presented intestinal parasitosis. The most frequent parasitosis was caused by Ameba histolytica with 60% and 25% of Ascaris lumbricoides. The predominantly affectedsex was male with 71%. Only one student in the 8th grade, corresponding to 1.3% and 5% of the 9th grade students, presented anemia. In all the courses, students with urinary tract infection were diagnosed, representing 15.2%. 77.1% of those affected were female.Conclusions:The presence of infectious diseases and anemia determines the design of educational strategies for students, parents and teachers of the institution.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adolescent , Adult , Hemic and Lymphatic Diseases , Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases , Nutrition Disorders , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Health Surveillance System , Metabolic DiseasesABSTRACT
Currently, it has been observed a growing number of publications in all fields of Dentistry. These publications act as scientific evidence, as well as a basis for clinical decision-making in dental care routine. It is important to note that the results and conclusions in articles are based on the p-value that is a purely probabilistic and statistical parameter, and it assists the researcher to accept or reject the null hypothesis being tested. The p-value was proposed by Fisher in 1925, and in Dentistry, it is usual to adopt the p-value stated in 0.05.1 In practical terms, when a statistical test results in p-value less than 0.05, the null hypothesis must be rejected (equality between groups), assuming that there is a difference between the assessed groups.2 In other words, p<0.05 indicates statistically significant difference between groups. Under a critical look, the researcher and reader should keep in mind that a statistical difference is not always reflecting a true clinical importance. In addition, a lack of statistical significance does not necessarily relate to the absence of clinical significance. The clinical importance is far beyond statistical calculations based on the p-value.3 A study presents clinical importance when the one being tested presents clinical effect capable to change the behavior of the dentist in daily routine. This judgment should be done by the researcher based on the results of his/her research, clinical experience and actual knowledge. In addition, estimates of effect sizes should be presented. This facilitates assessment of how large or small the observed effect could actually be in the population of interest, and hence how clinically important it could be. Kassab et al. (2006)4 compared periodontal parameters in groups with and without chemical biomodifciation of the root prior surgical coverage in cases of gingival recession. The group, that used edetic acid, statistically improved the periodontal parameters in relation to the group without surface biomodification. However, this difference was imperceptible to both dentist and patient. That is, the clinical result of root coverage will be the same when using or not acid biomodification of the root. In other words, there was not an important clinical effect of this step, although there was a significant difference. In the above example, it is clear that just because a statistic test is significant doesn't mean the effect it measures is significant or clinically important. Then, researchers
Subject(s)
Humans , Editorial , Dentistry , Orthodontics , Periodontics , Prosthodontics , Surgery, Oral , Biostatistics , Probability , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Pediatric Dentistry , Statistics , Endodontics , Geriatric DentistryABSTRACT
Se presenta el "soft" estadístico R-Medic, un programa que se utiliza directamente en la web sin necesidad de instalarlo o descargarlo en computadoras o dispositivos móviles. El programa posee cinco prestaciones generales: realiza un control que permite evaluar si las variables de la base de datos están correctamente cargadas, realiza tablas, gráficos, pruebas estadísticas y presenta herramientas didácticas de distribución de variables. Su uso es intuitivo ya que se debe definir si se poseen una o dos variables a estudiar y el "soft" propone los posibles análisis a realizar. Ofrece las pruebas de supuestos y responde con los estadísticos, valor p e interpretaciones de los resultados. (AU)
The statistical software R-Medic is presented, a program that is used directly on the web without the need to install it or download it to computers or mobile devices. The program has five general features: it performs a control that allows to evaluate if the variables of the database are correctly loaded, makes tables, graphs, statistical tests and presents didactic tools for the distribution of variables. Its use is intuitive since it must be defined if one or two variables are to be studied and the software proposes the possible analyzes to be carried out. It offers the assumption tests and responds with the statistics, p-value and interpretations of the results. (AU)
Subject(s)
Software/statistics & numerical data , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Mathematical Computing , Software/trendsABSTRACT
Introdução: São muitos os pacientes queimados que, apesar de um complexo tratamento multidisciplinar, são levados ao óbito. O objetivo deste estudo é determinar o perfil epidemiológico, ressaltando as principais complicações que acometem os pacientes queimados. Métodos: Estudo retrospectivo que analisou prontuários de pacientes queimados atendidos no Hospital Metropolitano de Urgência e Emergência no Estado do Pará, no período de janeiro de 2007 até dezembro de 2012. Resultados: A maioria dos pacientes era do sexo masculino (69,1%), entre 18 e 30 anos (35,5%), procedente de outros hospitais (35,8%), trabalhador da construção civil (21,2%). As complicações mais encontradas foram insuficiência respiratória (69,4%), insuficiência renal (57,1%) e sepse (38,8%). Conclusões: Os dados obtidos são similares aos encontrados na literatura nacional e internacional, evidenciando a necessidade de prevenção e fiscalização de trabalhadores da construção civil, bem como de implementar protocolos de tratamento para melhorar a assistência ao paciente queimado.
Introduction: Despite complex multidisciplinary treatment, many burn patients die. This study aimed to determine epidemiologic profiles of burn patients, highlighting major complications. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed the medical records of burn patients managed at the Metropolitan Hospital for Urgent and Emergent Care, Pará State, between January 2007 and December 2012. Results: most patients were males (69.1%) aged 18 to 30 years (35.5%), referred from other hospitals (35.8%), and employed as construction workers (21.2%). The most frequent complications were respiratory (69.4%) and renal failure (57.1%), followed by sepsis (38.8%). Conclusions: The data obtained were similar to those reported in national and international literature, highlighting the need for burn prevention and inspection of construction sites, as well as implementation of treatment protocols to improve care for burn patients.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , History, 21st Century , Patients , Burn Units , Burns , Epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Mortality , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Invasion of Deaths , Patients/statistics & numerical data , Burn Units/statistics & numerical data , Burns/surgery , Burns/complications , Burns/mortality , Burns/therapy , Burns/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies/methods , Cross-Sectional Studies/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
En el presente estudio planteamos un modelo matemático como marco cuantitativo para describir el brote epidémico de la enfermedad de chikungunya ocurrido en Guatemala durante las últimas semanas del 2014. El modelo pertenece a la familia de modelos compartimentales, introducidos inicialmente para el estudio epidemiológico de la malaria. Contiene los ingredientes básicos para describir la dinámica de transmisión del virus entre las poblaciones de humanos y mosquitos. El trabajo inicia con un análisis teórico cuyo objetivo es mostrar la estabilidad del modelo y explorar las posibilidades de equilibrio endémico y equilibrio libre de la infección en una población dada. Luego del análisis de estabilidad, se interpretó la incidencia semanal de humanos infectados predicha por el modelo como el valor esperado de las observaciones. Para ello se tomaron en cuenta los datos oficiales reportados durante el 2014 en las memorias epidemiológicas del Ministerio de Salud Pública y Asistencia Social de Guatemala (MSPAS), correspondientes a cuatro municipios del departamento de Escuintla. En cada caso, se realizó una simulación numérica, utilizando métodos estadísticos que permiten obtener el mejor ajuste de parámetros biológicos y poblacionales del modelo frente a los datos reportados por el MSPAS. La simulación permitió caracterizar los registros observados en cada localidad a la luz del modelo en discusión. Los métodos presentados en este trabajo podrían ser útiles como herramienta cuantitativa de apoyo para prever escenarios futuros sobre epidemias regionales de enfermedades ocasionadas por el Aedes aegypti, tales como el dengue, el zika y la chikungunya.
In the present study we propose a quantitative framework to describe the epidemic outbreak of chikungunya disease occurred in Guatemala during the last weeks of 2014. The model belongs to the family of compartmental models, initially introduced for the epidemiological study of malaria. It contains the basic ingredients to describe the dynamics of virus transmission between human and mosquito populations. The study begins with a theoretical analysis aimed at showing the stability of the model in order to explore the possibilities of endemic balance and free balance of the infection in a given population. Once the stable equilibrium points were identified, the weekly incidence of infected humans estimated by the model was considered as the expected value of the observations. To this end, the official data reported during 2014 by the Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance of Guatemala (MSPAS), corresponding to four municipalities in the department of Escuintla were taken into account. In each case, a numerical simulation was performed using statistical methods that allow obtaining the best fit of biological and population parameters of the model compared to the data reported by the MSPAS. The simulation enables to characterize the records observed in each locality on the grounds of the model under discussion. The quantitative methods presented in this paper could be useful for predicting.
Subject(s)
Female , Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology , Guatemala/epidemiology , Public Health , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Epidemiology and BiostatisticsSubject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Social Class , Interruption of Services Supply , Poverty , Epidemiology and BiostatisticsABSTRACT
Objetivo. Aplicar y valorar el enfoque bayesiano para realizar proyecciones de tasas de mortalidad por cáncer a través del ajuste de modelos edad-período-cohorte (EPC). Métodos. El método de estimación bayesiano se aplica a datos de mortalidad por cáncer de vejiga en Argentina. Se adopta un esquema autorregresivo de segundo orden para la especificación a priori de los coeficientes del modelo EPC. Se comparan las estimaciones obtenidas con toda la información disponible y excluyendo los grupos de edad con tasas de mortalidad bajas, a fin de valorar el comportamiento del enfoque ante datos esparcidos. Se proyectan las tasas de mortalidad a dos períodos sucesivos a los observados. Resultados. Se comprueba la robustez del método, lo cual evita excluir los grupos de edad con tasas de mortalidad nulas o bajas. Las tasas observadas caen todas dentro de las bandas de credibilidad y confirman la bondad del ajuste del modelo. Se observa una tendencia general decreciente de las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de vejiga. Las estimaciones y proyecciones de estas tasas resultan más precisas en los grupos etarios que presentan mayor incidencia de mortalidad. Conclusiones. La formulación bayesiana utilizada permite reducir la variación aleatoria entre estimaciones adyacentes al especificar que los efectos de cada escala dependan de los inmediatos anteriores. Se demuestra la capacidad del enfoque para manejar frecuencias bajas y obtener estimaciones confiables de las tasas de mortalidad, como así también proyecciones precisas sin necesidad de realizar supuestos adicionales como sucede en el ajuste clásico de un modelo EPC.
Objective. Apply and assess a Bayesian approach to projecting cancer mortality rates by fitting age-period-cohort (APC) models. Methods. The Bayesian estimation method was applied to bladder cancer mortality data in Argentina. A second-order autoregressive model was adopted for a priori specification of APC model coefficients. The estimates obtained were compared with all available information and excluding age groups with low mortality, to assess behavior of the approach in light of scattered data. Mortality was projected for two successive periods following the ones observed. Results. Robustness of the method was verified, which avoids excluding age groups with null or low mortality. Observed rates all fall within the credibility bands and confirm the model’s goodness of fit. An overall downward trend in bladder cancer mortality was observed. Estimates and projections of these rates are more precise in age groups that have greater incidence of mortality. Conclusions. The Bayesian formulation used herein makes it possible to reduce random variation between adjacent estimates by specifying that the effects of each scale depend on the immediately preceding ones. It was demonstrated that the approach has the capacity to handle low frequencies and obtain reliable mortality estimates, as well as precise projections, without the need for making additional assumptions, as happens in classical APC model fitting.
Subject(s)
Models, Statistical , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Mortality , Urologic Neoplasms , Argentina , Models, Statistical , Mortality , Urologic Neoplasms , Epidemiology and BiostatisticsABSTRACT
Teniendo en cuenta la importancia de la bioestadística en los trabajos de investigación destinados a los profesionales de atención primaria, se describen dos de sus conceptos básicos: medidas de tendencia central y medidas de dispersión...(AU)
Subject(s)
Humans , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Scientific and Technical Publications , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Analysis of Variance , Statistical DistributionsABSTRACT
Teniendo en cuenta la importancia de la bioestadística en los trabajos de investigación destinados a los profesionales de atención primaria, se describen dos de sus conceptos básicos: medidas de tendencia central y medidas de dispersión...
Subject(s)
Humans , Analysis of Variance , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Epidemiology and Biostatistics , Scientific and Technical Publications , Statistical DistributionsABSTRACT
Provee acceso a alertas y pautas para el abordaje de enfermedades infecciosas, estadísticas de morbimortalidad y noticias de interés para los países de la región del Caribe