Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990-2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990-2019 and projected the disease development from 2019-2039. METHODS: Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio-demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019-2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. RESULTS: Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019-2039. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.

This study is an updated assessment of liver cirrhosis prevalence trends in 204 countries worldwide and the first to project trends over the next 20 years.The disease burden of cirrhosis is still increasing, and despite the decline in ASR, the number and prevalence of cirrhosis will continue to increase over the next two decades after 2019.It is alarming that the global surge in alcohol use is accompanied by an increase in DALYs and deaths due to liver cirrhosis.Liver cirrhosis remains a noteworthy public health event, and our study can further guide the development of national healthcare policies and the implementation of related interventions.

Epidemiological patterns of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes from 1990-2019.

Background: This study investigates the burden of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) across different geographical locations and time periods from 1990 to 2019. A total of 204 countries and regions are included in the analysis, with consideration given to their socio-demographic indexes (SDI). The aim is to examine both spatial and temporal variations in CKD-T2D burden. Methods: This research utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study to evaluate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) associated with CKD-T2D. Results: Since 1990, there has been a noticeable increase of CKD age-standardized rates due to T2D, with an EAPCs of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63 to 0.66) for ASIR and an EAPC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.05) for age-standardized DALYs rate. Among these regions, Andean Latin America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D incidence [EAPC: 2.23 (95% CI: 2.11 to 2.34) and North America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D DALYs [EAPC: 2.73 (95% CI: 2.39 to 3.07)]. The burden was higher in male and increased across all age groups, peaking at 60-79 years. Furthermore, there was a clear correlation between SDI and age-standardized rates, with regions categorized as middle SDI and High SDI experiencing a significant rise in burden. Conclusion: The global burden of CKD-T2D has significantly risen since 1990, especially among males aged 60-79 years and in regions with middle SDI. It is imperative to implement strategic interventions to effectively address this escalating health challenge.

Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.

Trends and projections of the global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2030.

Background: We aimed to explore the burden of thyroid cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2019 and to project its future trends from 2020 to 2030. Methods: Based on annual data on thyroid cancer cases from 1990 to 2019 available in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated the age-standardised incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for thyroid cancer. We used the estimated annual percentage change (EPAC) to quantify the temporal trends in these age-standardised rates from 1990 to 2019 and applied generalised additive models to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Results: The global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 1990 to 2019, with a higher overall disease burden in women than in men at both study time points. The male-to-female ratios for the ASIR increased from 0.41 in 1990 to 0.51 in 2019, while the ratio for the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.60 to 0.82. The models predicted the United Arab Emirates would have the fastest rising trend in both the ASIR (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) = 4.19) and age-standardised DALY rate (EAPC = 4.36) in 2020-30, while Saint Kitts and Nevis will have the fastest rising trend in the ASDR (EAPC = 2.29). Meanwhile, the growth trends for the ASDR and age-standardised DALY rate are projected to increase across countries in this period. A correlation analysis of the global burden of thyroid cancer between 1990-2019 and 2020-30 showed a significant positive correlation between the increase in the ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in low-SDI and low-middle-SDI countries. Conclusions: The global burden of thyroid cancer is increasing, especially in the female population and in low-middle-SDI regions, underscoring a need to target them for effective prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

Risk and sex-specific trends of dementia and stroke in Italy Compared to European and high-income countries and the world: global implications.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the increasing trends in Italy may inform new prevention strategies and better treatments. We investigated trends and risk factors of dementia, stroke, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Italy with the second-oldest population globally, compared to European and high-income countries and the world. METHODS: We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 estimates on incidence and burden (i.e., disability and death combined) of the three conditions in both sexes. We also analyzed the burden attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors and their changes during 1990-2019. RESULTS: In 2019, Italy had 186,108 new dementias (123,885 women) and 94,074 new strokes (53,572 women). Women had 98% higher crude dementia and 24% higher crude stroke burdens than men. The average age-standardized new dementia rate was 114.7 per 100,000 women and 88.4 per 100,000 men, both higher than Western Europe, the European Union, high-income countries, and the world. During 1990-2019, this rate increased in both sexes (4%), despite a decline in stroke (- 45%) and IHD (- 17%) in Italy. Dementia burden attributable to tobacco decreased in both sexes (- 12.7%) during 1990-2019, while high blood glucose and high body mass index combined burden increased (25.4%). Stroke and IHD had similar trends. CONCLUSIONS: While decreases in new strokes and IHDs are encouraging, new approaches to their joint prevention are required to reverse the rising dementia trends, especially among women. Life course approaches to promoting holistic brain health should be implemented at the community, national, and international levels before the growing trends become overwhelming.

Global synergistic actions to improve brain health for human development.

The global burden of neurological disorders is substantial and increasing, especially in low-resource settings. The current increased global interest in brain health and its impact on population wellbeing and economic growth, highlighted in the World Health Organization's new Intersectoral Global Action Plan on Epilepsy and other Neurological Disorders 2022-2031, presents an opportunity to rethink the delivery of neurological services. In this Perspective, we highlight the global burden of neurological disorders and propose pragmatic solutions to enhance neurological health, with an emphasis on building global synergies and fostering a 'neurological revolution' across four key pillars - surveillance, prevention, acute care and rehabilitation - termed the neurological quadrangle. Innovative strategies for achieving this transformation include the recognition and promotion of holistic, spiritual and planetary health. These strategies can be deployed through co-design and co-implementation to create equitable and inclusive access to services for the promotion, protection and recovery of neurological health in all human populations across the life course.