Heuristics for the sustainable harvest of wildlife in stochastic social-ecological systems.

Sustainable wildlife harvest is challenging due to the complexity of uncertain social-ecological systems, and diverse stakeholder perspectives of sustainability. In these systems, semi-complex stochastic simulation models can provide heuristics that bridge the gap between highly simplified theoretical models and highly context-specific case-studies. Such heuristics allow for more nuanced recommendations in low-knowledge contexts, and an improved understanding of model sensitivity and transferability to novel contexts. We develop semi-complex Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) models capturing dynamics and variability in ecological processes, monitoring, decision-making, and harvest implementation, under a diverse range of contexts. Results reveal the fundamental challenges of achieving sustainability in wildlife harvest. Environmental contexts were important in determining optimal harvest parameters, but overall, evaluation contexts more strongly influenced perceived outcomes, optimal harvest parameters and optimal harvest strategies. Importantly, simple composite metrics popular in the theoretical literature (e.g. focusing on maximizing yield and population persistence only) often diverged from more holistic composite metrics that include a wider range of population and harvest objectives, and better reflect the trade-offs in real world applied contexts. While adaptive harvest strategies were most frequently preferred, particularly for more complex environmental contexts (e.g. high uncertainty or variability), our simulations map out cases where these heuristics may not hold. Despite not always being the optimal solution, overall adaptive harvest strategies resulted in the least value forgone, and are likely to give the best outcomes under future climatic variability and uncertainty. This demonstrates the potential value of heuristics for guiding applied management.

A heuristic perspective on non-variational free energy modulation at the sleep-like edge.

BACKGROUND: The variational Free Energy Principle (FEP) establishes that a neural system minimizes a free energy function of their internal state through environmental sensing entailing beliefs about hidden states in their environment. PROBLEM: Because sensations are drastically reduced during sleep, it is still unclear how a self-organizing neural network can modulate free energy during sleep transitions. GOAL: To address this issue, we study how network's state-dependent changes in energy, entropy and free energy connect with changes at the synaptic level in the absence of sensing during a sleep-like transition. APPROACH: We use simulations of a physically plausible, environmentally isolated neuronal network that self-organize after inducing a thalamic input to show that the reduction of non-variational free energy depends sensitively upon thalamic input at a slow, rhythmic Poisson (delta) frequency due to spike timing dependent plasticity. METHODS: We define a non-variational free energy in terms of the relative difference between the energy and entropy of the network from the initial distribution (prior to activity dependent plasticity) to the nonequilibrium steady-state distribution (after plasticity). We repeated the analysis under different levels of thalamic drive - as defined by the number of cortical neurons in receipt of thalamic input. RESULTS: Entraining slow activity with thalamic input induces a transition from a gamma (awake-like state) to a delta (sleep-like state) mode of activity, which can be characterized through a modulation of network's energy and entropy (non-variational free energy) of the ensuing dynamics. The self-organizing response to low and high thalamic drive also showed characteristic differences in the spectrum of frequency content due to spike timing dependent plasticity. CONCLUSIONS: The modulation of this non-variational free energy in a network that self-organizes, seems to be an organizational network principle. This could open a window to new empirically testable hypotheses about state changes in a neural network.

A Similarity Heuristic in Children's Possibility Judgments.

Children often judge that strange and improbable events are impossible, but the mechanisms behind their reasoning remain unclear. This article (N = 250) provides evidence that young children use a similarity heuristic that compares potential events to similar known events to determine whether events are possible. Experiment 1 shows that 5- to 6-year-olds who hear about improbable events go on to judge that similar improbable events can happen. Experiment 2 shows that 5- to 6-year-olds more often affirm that improbable events can happen if told about related improbable events than if told about unrelated ones. Finally, Experiment 3 shows that 5- to 6-year-olds affirm the possibility of improbable events related to known events, but deny that related impossible events can happen.

Age differences in item selection behaviors and subsequent memory for new foreign language vocabulary: Evidence for a region of proximal learning heuristic.

We examined younger and older adults' item selection behaviors to assess heuristics for self-regulating learning of English meanings of Chinese characters varying widely in figural complexity. Two study-test trials were used to assess whether (a) item selection behaviors on the first study opportunity would show evidence for a difficulty-based heuristic as posited by Metcalfe's (2002) region of proximal learning (RPL) theory, or alternatively, influences of habitual English-language reading order (i.e. left-to-right, top-to-bottom); (b) whether second-trial selection behaviors were better predicted by RPL or by the discrepancy reduction model (DRM; Dunlosky & Hertzog, 1998); and (c) whether Trial 1 test performance would alter Trial 2 study in a manner predicted by RPL. DRM stipulates people select any item for study at Trial 2 that was not previously recalled. RPL states that people study only items they believe they can learn, avoiding complex items above their subjective RPL. Stimuli were 36 Chinese-English vocabulary pairs randomly presented in six 2 × 3-element grids. Both habitual reading order and stimulus complexity at Trial 1 affected order of study, with participants of both age groups manifesting a preference to study less complex characters. However, older adults showed larger effects of stimulus complexity whereas younger adults had larger effects of habitual reading order. At Trial 2, older adults showed a greater tendency to avoid studying the most complex Chinese characters, consistent with RPL, which contributed to their lower rates of vocabulary acquisition. Older adults' more conservative RPLs appeared to constrain their degree of self-regulated learning. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Intuitive physical reasoning about objects' masses transfers to a visuomotor decision task consistent with Newtonian physics.

While interacting with objects during every-day activities, e.g. when sliding a glass on a counter top, people obtain constant feedback whether they are acting in accordance with physical laws. However, classical research on intuitive physics has revealed that people's judgements systematically deviate from predictions of Newtonian physics. Recent research has explained at least some of these deviations not as consequence of misconceptions about physics but instead as the consequence of the probabilistic interaction between inevitable perceptual uncertainties and prior beliefs. How intuitive physical reasoning relates to visuomotor actions is much less known. Here, we present an experiment in which participants had to slide pucks under the influence of naturalistic friction in a simulated virtual environment. The puck was controlled by the duration of a button press, which needed to be scaled linearly with the puck's mass and with the square-root of initial distance to reach a target. Over four phases of the experiment, uncertainties were manipulated by altering the availability of sensory feedback and providing different degrees of knowledge about the physical properties of pucks. A hierarchical Bayesian model of the visuomotor interaction task incorporating perceptual uncertainty and press-time variability found substantial evidence that subjects adjusted their button-presses so that the sliding was in accordance with Newtonian physics. After observing collisions between pucks, which were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian model of the perceptual observation task, subjects transferred the relative masses inferred perceptually to adjust subsequent sliding actions. Crucial in the modeling was the inclusion of a cost function, which quantitatively captures participants' implicit sensitivity to errors due to their motor variability. Taken together, in the present experiment we find evidence that our participants transferred their intuitive physical reasoning to a subsequent visuomotor control task consistent with Newtonian physics and weighed potential outcomes with a cost functions based on their knowledge about their own variability.

Sense of agency: Sensorimotor signals and social context are differentially weighed at implicit and explicit levels.

Sense of agency (SoA) describes the experience of being the author of an action. Cue integration approaches divide SoA into an implicit level, mostly relying on prospective sensorimotor signals, and an explicit level, resulting from an integration of sensorimotor and contextual cues based on their reliability. Integration mechanisms at each level and the contribution of implicit to explicit SoA remain underspecified. In a task of movements with visual outcomes, we tested the effect of social context (contextual cue) and sensory prediction congruency (retrospective sensorimotor cue) over implicit (intentional binding) and explicit (verbal judgments) SoA. Our results suggest that prospective sensorimotor cues determine implicit SoA. At the explicit level, retrospective sensorimotor cues and contextual cues are partly integrated in an additive way, but contextual cues can also act as a heuristic if sensorimotor cues are highly unreliable. We also found no significant association between implicit and explicit SoA.

Linear integration and lexicographic models of choice: A cue weight learning perspective.

Choosing between options characterized by multiple cues can be a daunting task. People may integrate all information at hand or just use lexicographic strategies that ignore most of it. Notably, integrative strategies require knowing exact cue weights, whereas lexicographic heuristics can operate by merely knowing the importance order of cues. Here we study how using integrative or lexicographic strategies interacts with learning about cues. In our choice-learning-estimation paradigm people first make choices, learning about cues from the experienced qualities of chosen options, and then estimate qualities of new options. We developed delta-elimination (DE), a new lexicographic strategy that generalizes previous heuristics to any type of environment, and compared it to the integrative weighted-additive (WADD) strategy. Our results show that participants learned cue weights, regardless of whether the DE strategy or the WADD strategy described their choices the best. Still, there was an interaction between the adopted strategy and the cue weight learning process: the DE users learned cue weights slower than the WADD users. This work advances the study of lexicographic choice strategies, both empirically and theoretically, and deepens our understanding of strategy selection, in particular the interaction between the strategy used and learning the structure of the environment. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Medicine and heuristics: cognitive biases and medical decision-making.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical decision-making is a daily practice conducted by medical practitioners, yet the processes surrounding it are poorly understood. The influence of 'shortcuts' in clinical decision-making, known as heuristics, remains unknown. This paper explores heuristics and the valuable role they play in medical practice, as well as offering potential solutions to minimize the risk of incorrect decision-making. METHOD: The quasi-systematic review was conducted according to modified PRISMA guidelines utilizing the electronic databases Medline, Embase and Cinahl. All English language papers including bias and the medical profession were included. Papers with evidence from other healthcare professions were included if medical practitioners were in the study sample. DISCUSSION: The most common decisional shortcuts used in medicine are the Availability, Anchoring and Confirmatory heuristics. The Representativeness, Overconfidence and Bandwagon effects are also prevalent in medical practice. Heuristics are mostly positive but can also result in negative consequences if not utilized appropriately. Factors such as personality and level of experience may influence a doctor's use of heuristics. Heuristics are influenced by the context and conditions in which they are performed. Mitigating strategies such as reflective practice and technology may reduce the likelihood of inappropriate use. CONCLUSION: It remains unknown if heuristics are primarily positive or negative for clinical decision-making. Future efforts should assess heuristics in real-time and controlled trials should be applied to assess the potential impact of mitigating factors in reducing the negative impact of heuristics and optimizing their efficiency for positive outcomes.

Adolescents and Young Adults with Cancer Using a Symptom Heuristics App: Provider Perceptions and Actions.

Purpose: This study examined health care providers' perceptions of the usefulness and ease of use of a symptom heuristics app delivered via a tablet computer as a resource for understanding symptom experiences of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer. AYAs' app-generated symptom reports were compared with providers' documentation of AYAs' symptoms. Methods: This multisite study included responses from 86 AYAs 15-29 years of age who completed the Computerized Symptom Capture Tool (C-SCAT) before two scheduled visits for chemotherapy. After each visit, their providers completed a survey addressing their perspective of: (1) the usefulness of data provided by the C-SCAT to understand the AYAs' symptom experience, and (2) the nature of the discussion of symptoms with the AYA. An electronic health record review compared symptoms that AYAs identified by using the C-SCAT with providers' documentation of symptoms. Results: One hundred forty-four complete surveys were returned after 162 visits. Fifty percent (n = 72) of responses reported that the C-SCAT helped identify the patient's symptoms, and 53% (n = 76) reported that it helped identify the patient's priority symptoms. Providers also reported higher patient engagement and more focused discussions regarding symptoms. They reported that use of the C-SCAT facilitated the development of symptom management plans. Priority symptoms were documented more frequently than nonpriority symptoms (54% vs. 32.7%; p < 0.01) as was a plan for managing priority symptoms (33.7% vs. 17.9%; p < 0.01). Conclusion: Use of the C-SCAT enhanced providers' understanding of AYAs' symptom experiences. Further research is needed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the C-SCAT as a resource to improve symptom management among AYAs with cancer.

Uncovering the moral heuristics of altruism: A philosophical scale.

Extant research suggests that individuals employ traditional moral heuristics to support their observed altruistic behavior; yet findings have largely been limited to inductive extrapolation and rely on relatively few traditional frames in so doing, namely, deontology in organizational behavior and virtue theory in law and economics. Given that these and competing moral frames such as utilitarianism can manifest as identical behavior, we develop a moral framing instrument-the Philosophical Moral-Framing Measure (PMFM)-to expand and distinguish traditional frames associated and disassociated with observed altruistic behavior. The validation of our instrument based on 1015 subjects in 3 separate real stakes scenarios indicates that heuristic forms of deontology, virtue-theory, and utilitarianism are strongly related to such behavior, and that egoism is an inhibitor. It also suggests that deontic and virtue-theoretical frames may be commonly perceived as intertwined and opens the door for new research on self-abnegation, namely, a perceived moral obligation toward suffering and self-denial. These findings hold the potential to inform ongoing conversations regarding organizational citizenship and moral crowding out, namely, how financial incentives can undermine altruistic behavior.

The Development of Nonsymbolic Probability Judgments in Children.

Two experiments were designed to investigate the developmental trajectory of children's probability approximation abilities. In Experiment 1, results revealed 6- and 7-year-old children's (N = 48) probability judgments improve with age and become more accurate as the distance between two ratios increases. Experiment 2 replicated these findings with 7- to 12-year-old children (N = 130) while also accounting for the effect of the size and the perceived numerosity of target objects. Older children's performance suggested the correct use of proportions for estimating probability; but in some cases, children relied on heuristic shortcuts. These results suggest that children's nonsymbolic probability judgments show a clear distance effect and that the acuity of probability estimations increases with age.

The Love of Large Numbers Revisited: A Coherence Model of the Popularity Bias.

Preferences are often based on social information such as experiences and recommendations of other people. The reliance on social information is especially relevant in the case of online shopping, where buying decisions for products may often be based on online reviews by other customers. Recently, Powell, Yu, DeWolf, and Holyoak (2017, Psychological Science, 28, 1432-1442) showed that, when deciding between two products, people do not consider the number of product reviews in a statistically appropriate way as predicted by a Bayesian model but rather exhibit a bias for popular products (i.e., products with many reviews). In the present work, we propose a coherence model of the cognitive mechanism underlying this empirical phenomenon. The new model assumes that people strive for a coherent representation of the available information (i.e., the average review score and the number of reviews). To test this theoretical account, we reanalyzed the data of Powell and colleagues and ran an online study with 244 participants using a wider range of stimulus material than in the original study. Besides replicating the popularity bias, the study provided clear evidence for the predicted coherence effect, that is, decisions became more confident and faster when the available information about popularity and quality was congruent.

Metaheuristic Optimisation Algorithms for Tuning a Bioinspired Retinal Model.

A significant challenge in neuroscience is understanding how visual information is encoded in the retina. Such knowledge is extremely important for the purpose of designing bioinspired sensors and artificial retinal systems that will, in so far as may be possible, be capable of mimicking vertebrate retinal behaviour. In this study, we report the tuning of a reliable computational bioinspired retinal model with various algorithms to improve the mimicry of the model. Its main contribution is two-fold. First, given the multi-objective nature of the problem, an automatic multi-objective optimisation strategy is proposed through the use of four biological-based metrics, which are used to adjust the retinal model for accurate prediction of retinal ganglion cell responses. Second, a subset of population-based search heuristics-genetic algorithms (SPEA2, NSGA-II and NSGA-III), particle swarm optimisation (PSO) and differential evolution (DE)-are explored to identify the best algorithm for fine-tuning the retinal model, by comparing performance across a hypervolume metric. Nonparametric statistical tests are used to perform a rigorous comparison between all the metaheuristics. The best results were achieved with the PSO algorithm on the basis of the largest hypervolume that was achieved, well-distributed elements and high numbers on the Pareto front.

Improved Bat Algorithm Based on Multipopulation Strategy of Island Model for Solving Global Function Optimization Problem.

The bat algorithm (BA) is a heuristic algorithm that globally optimizes by simulating the bat echolocation behavior. In order to improve the search performance and further improve the convergence speed and optimization precision of the bat algorithm, an improved algorithm based on chaotic map is introduced, and the improved bat algorithm of Levy flight search strategy and contraction factor is proposed. The optimal chaotic map operator is selected based on the simulation experiments results. Then, a multipopulation parallel bat algorithm based on the island model is proposed. Finally, the typical test functions are used to carry out the simulation experiments. The simulation results show that the proposed improved algorithm can effectively improve the convergence speed and optimization accuracy.

Critical thinking and regional gray matter volume interact to predict representation connection in scientific problem solving.

Representation connection (RC) is a stable ability that significantly predicts the accuracy of scientific innovation problem solving while critical thinking has been strongly related to problem solving. However, the neural mechanisms underlying this relationship have not been assessed. Using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and scientific innovation problem solving materials, we investigated the correlation between RC and regional gray matter volume (rGMV) in healthy young participants. We found that RC was positively correlated with rGMV in the right superior temporal gyrus (STG) and in a cluster in the left medial frontal gyrus (MFG). These results indicate that increased rGMV in the right STG may lead to the ability to overcome misdirection more easily, which may result in better semantic integration of the "certain construction" of heuristic prototypes. Increased rGMV in the left MFG may be associated with forming novel associations and retrieving matched unsolved technical problems from memory. Further analysis revealed that the interaction between critical thinking and rGMV predicted RC in insightful problem solving, and found that higher rGMV was correlated with higher RC in participants with lower cognitive maturity, but not in participants with higher cognitive maturity. These findings suggest that rGMV could interact with cognitive maturity to modulate RC in insightful problem solving.

Optimality and heuristics in perceptual neuroscience.

The foundation for modern understanding of how we make perceptual decisions about what we see or where to look comes from considering the optimal way to perform these behaviors. While statistical computation is useful for deriving the optimal solution to a perceptual problem, optimality requires perfect knowledge of priors and often complex computation. Accumulating evidence, however, suggests that optimal perceptual goals can be achieved or approximated more simply by human observers using heuristic approaches. Perceptual neuroscientists captivated by optimal explanations of sensory behaviors will fail in their search for the neural circuits and cortical processes that implement an optimal computation whenever that behavior is actually achieved through heuristics. This article provides a cross-disciplinary review of decision-making with the aim of building perceptual theory that uses optimality to set the computational goals for perceptual behavior but, through consideration of ecological, computational, and energetic constraints, incorporates how these optimal goals can be achieved through heuristic approximation.

Ignorance is strength: May human mind's unique capabilities stem from its limitations?

Radical views on heuristics and biases, and more generally, non-optimal patterns of human judgement, construe them either as an unwelcome mental handicap or a great evolution-based advantage. A more moderate position recognizes both sides, depending on the context and the situation at hand. This paper suggests that at least in some cases, apparently unsound human judgment may be viewed as a hallmark of true intelligence, enabling its major insights while also making it so hard to analyze and fully comprehend.

Information processing under high and low distractions using eye tracking.

The previous studies found the differences of eye movements between systematic and heuristic processing were inconsistent. To bridge this gap, we manipulated both systematic and heuristic processings (using high vs. low distractions) and argument quality (using strong vs. weak), and measured both eye movements and self-reported attitude. The results suggested that low distraction induced larger differentiation of post-message attitude between strong and weak arguments compared to high distraction, indicating the successful operation of both processings. More importantly, low distraction enabled more fixations and shorter saccade lengths independent of argument quality. However, no differentiations were found involving fixation duration, regressions, and reading speed. In addition, argument quality influenced eye movements, i.e., less fixation and faster reading speed were found in strong arguments. Our results explain why distractions reduce the efficiency of information processing from an eye tracking perspective and why fixation duration results were inconsistent in the previous studies.

Effect of exogenous testosterone on cooperation depends on personality and time pressure.

The social heuristic hypothesis posits that human cooperation is an intuitive response that is expressed especially under conditions of time-constraint. Conversely, it proposes that for individuals given an opportunity for reflection, cooperation is more likely to be curtailed by an optimizing process calibrated to maximize individual benefit in a given situation. Notably, the steroid hormone testosterone has also been implicated in intuitive decision-making, including both prosocial and anti-social behaviors, with effects strongest in men with particular dispositional characteristics. This raises the possibility that increased testosterone may augment the effects predicted by the social heuristic hypothesis, particularly among men higher in specific dispositional characteristics (dominance, impulsivity, independent self-construal: high risk for testosterone-induced antisocial behavior). Here, in a testosterone administration study with a relatively large sample of men (N = 400), we test this possibility in a double-blind, placebo-controlled paradigm, with men randomly assigned to play a one-shot public goods game either under time-pressure (forced intuition) or with a time delay (forced reflection). Results revealed that within the placebo group, time-pressure (versus forced delay) increased cooperation among low risk men, but decreased cooperation among high risk men. Testosterone further moderated this pattern by abolishing the time-pressure effect in low risk men and-in high risk men-reversing the effect by selectively reducing offers (compared to placebo) under forced delay. This is the first evidence that testosterone and personality can interact with time-pressure and delay to predict human cooperation.