Modeling study on oil spill transport in the Great Lakes: The unignorable impact of ice cover.

The rise in oil trade and transportation has led to a continuous increase in the risk of oil spills, posing a serious worldwide concern. However, there is a lack of numerical models for predicting oil spill transport in freshwater, especially under icy conditions. To tackle this challenge, we developed a prediction system for oil with ice modeling by coupling the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model with the Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) model. Taking Lake Erie as a pilot study, we used observed drifter data to evaluate the performance of the coupled model. Additionally, we developed six hypothetical oil spill cases in Lake Erie, considering both with and without ice conditions during the freezing, stable, and melting seasons spanning from 2018 to 2022, to investigate the impacts of ice cover on oil spill processes. The results showed the effective performance of the coupled model system in capturing the movements of a deployed drifter. Through ensemble simulations, it was observed that the stable season with high-concentration ice had the most significant impact on limiting oil transport compared to the freezing and melting seasons, resulting in an oil-affected open water area of 49 km2 on day 5 with ice cover, while without ice cover it reached 183 km2. The stable season with high-concentration ice showed a notable reduction in the probability of oil presence in the risk map, whereas this reduction effect was less prominent during the freezing and melting seasons. Moreover, negative correlations between initial ice concentration and oil-affected open water area were consistent, especially on day 1 with a linear regression R-squared value of 0.94, potentially enabling rapid prediction. Overall, the coupled model system serves as a useful tool for simulating oil spills in the world's largest freshwater system, particularly under icy conditions, thus enhancing the formulation of effective emergency response strategies.

Ionic and stable isotopic content in two Antarctic firn cores under different environment settings.

This article compares isotopic, ionic and climatic data from two firn cores from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The IC-02 (88°01'21.3"S , 82°04'21.7"W) and the IC-05 (82°30'30.8"S , 79°28'02.7"W) closer to the coast. The IC-02 had 488 samples analyzed covering 14.58 meters depth while the IC-05 had 602 samples analyzed covering 19.73 meters depth. The time interval for both ice cores is 25 years ranging from 1978 to 2003. Sodium, sulfate and chloride were analyzed via ion chromatography using three DionexTM ionic chromatographers at the laboratories of Centro Polar e Climático (CPC) and at the Climate Change Institute. Stable isotope data was determined using cavity ring-down spectroscopy in a Picarro® spectrometer at the CPC. Annual accumulation was greater at IC-05 with an average of 0.35 m.eq.w.a-1 compared to 0.25 m.eq.w.a-1 at the IC-02. Stable isotope data was approximately 1.3 times more negative at the IC-02 which also presented higher d values. Na+ and Cl- were in higher concentrations at the IC-05 however Cl/Na was greater in the IC-02. The Cl excess was found to be derived from fractionation of sea salt aerosols and not related to volcanism. This work presents new insights regarding the chemical differences between ice cores.

Metagenome-assembled genomes from High Arctic glaciers highlight the vulnerability of glacier-associated microbiota and their activities to habitat loss.

The rapid warming of the Arctic is threatening the demise of its glaciers and their associated ecosystems. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore and understand the diversity of genomes resident within glacial ecosystems endangered by human-induced climate change. In this study we use genome-resolved metagenomics to explore the taxonomic and functional diversity of different habitats within glacier-occupied catchments. Comparing different habitats within such catchments offers a natural experiment for understanding the effects of changing habitat extent or even loss upon Arctic microbiota. Through binning and annotation of metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) we describe the spatial differences in taxon distribution and their implications for glacier-associated biogeochemical cycling. Multiple taxa associated with carbon cycling included organisms with the potential for carbon monoxide oxidation. Meanwhile, nitrogen fixation was mediated by a single taxon, although diverse taxa contribute to other nitrogen conversions. Genes for sulphur oxidation were prevalent within MAGs implying the potential capacity for sulphur cycling. Finally, we focused on cyanobacterial MAGs, and those within cryoconite, a biodiverse microbe-mineral granular aggregate responsible for darkening glacier surfaces. Although the metagenome-assembled genome of Phormidesmis priestleyi, the cyanobacterium responsible for forming Arctic cryoconite was represented with high coverage, evidence for the biosynthesis of multiple vitamins and co-factors was absent from its MAG. Our results indicate the potential for cross-feeding to sustain P. priestleyi within granular cryoconite. Taken together, genome-resolved metagenomics reveals the vulnerability of glacier-associated microbiota to the deletion of glacial habitats through the rapid warming of the Arctic.

Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet.

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1. Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS, leading to self-sustained melting2-4, and the GrIS has been shown to permit several stable states5. Critical transitions are expected when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses specific thresholds, with substantial hysteresis between the stable states6. Here we use two independent ice-sheet models to investigate the impact of different overshoot scenarios with varying peak and convergence temperatures for a broad range of warming and subsequent cooling rates. Our results show that the maximum GMT and the time span of overshooting given GMT targets are critical in determining GrIS stability. We find a threshold GMT between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above preindustrial levels for an abrupt ice-sheet loss. GrIS loss can be substantially mitigated, even for maximum GMTs of 6 °C or more above preindustrial levels, if the GMT is subsequently reduced to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels within a few centuries. However, our results also show that even temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold, without a transition to a new ice-sheet state, still leads to a peak in SLR of up to several metres.

Dust source tracing and their transport mechanisms before monsoon season from three glaciers at the Tibetan Plateau: revelations from REE analysis and an indirect tracing approach.

Understanding the origins of Tibetan Plateau (TP) glacier dust is vital for glacier dynamics and regional climate understanding. In May 2016, snow pit samples were collected from glaciers on the TP: Qiyi (QY) in the north, Yuzhufeng (YZF) in the center, and Xiaodongkemadi (XDK) in the south. Rare earth element (REE) concentrations were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), and near-surface PM10 concentrations were extracted from a dataset of Chinese near-surface PM10. Two tracing approaches were used: direct REE tracing and an indirect approach combining potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT). Both methods yielded consistent results. Pre-monsoon, TP surface soils, Taklimakan Desert, and Qaidam Basin contributed to glacier dust. Notably, central and southern glaciers showed Thar Desert influence, unlike the northern ones. Taklimakan and Thar Deserts were major contributors due to their substantial contribution and high dust concentration. Taklimakan dust, influenced by terrain and westerly winds, affected central and southern glaciers more than northern ones. Westerlies carried Thar Desert dust to the TP after it was uplifted by updrafts in northwest India, significantly affecting southern glaciers. Furthermore, comparing the two tracer methods, the indirect approach combining PSCF and CWT proved more effective for short-term dust source tracing.

Empirical testing of cryoconite granulation: Role of cyanobacteria in the formation of key biogenic structure darkening glaciers in polar regions.

Cryoconite, the dark sediment on the surface of glaciers, often aggregates into oval or irregular granules serving as biogeochemical factories. They reduce a glacier's albedo, act as biodiversity hotspots by supporting aerobic and anaerobic microbial communities, constitute one of the organic matter (OM) sources on glaciers, and are a feeder for micrometazoans. Although cryoconite granules have multiple roles on glaciers, their formation is poorly understood. Cyanobacteria are ubiquitous and abundant engineers of cryoconite hole ecosystems. This study tested whether cyanobacteria may be responsible for cryoconite granulation as a sole biotic element. Incubation of Greenlandic, Svalbard, and Scandinavian cyanobacteria in different nutrient availabilities and substrata for growth (distilled water alone and water with quartz powder, furnaced cryoconite without OM, or powdered rocks from glacial catchment) revealed that cyanobacteria bind mineral particles into granules. The structures formed in the experiment resembled those commonly observed in natural cryoconite holes: they contained numerous cyanobacterial filaments protruding from aggregated mineral particles. Moreover, all examined strains were confirmed to produce extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), which suggests that cryoconite granulation is most likely due to EPS secretion by gliding cyanobacteria. In the presence of water as the only substrate for growth, cyanobacteria formed mostly carpet-like mats. Our data empirically prove that EPS-producing oscillatorialean cyanobacteria isolated from the diverse community of cryoconite microorganisms can form granules from mineral substrate and that the presence of the mineral substrate increases the probability of the formation of these important and complex biogeochemical microstructures on glaciers.

Metal enrichment in ice-melt water and uptake by chironomids as possible legacy of World War One in the Italian Alps.

Relics of World War One (WW1) were buried in alpine glaciers around 100 years ago. Today, these are emerging from the ice due to widespread glacier retreat, and are in direct contact with glacial meltwater-fed streams. To address a possible emergent contamination, we quantified major and trace elements (M-TEs) by mass spectrometry in water and larvae of Diamesa zernyi from three glacial streams fed by glaciers differently impacted by the Italian Austro-Hungarian war, in the Adamello-Presanella mountain range (Italian Alps): Lares and Presena, the two main battlefields, and Amola, 8 km from the front. M-TEs in stream water were interpreted using the crustal enrichment factor (EFc) while larval uptake was quantified by adopting the bioaccumulation factor (BAF). Despite low M-TEs concentrations in the water, in a range between 1 ng L-1 (Ag, Ta) and 1-2 mg L-1 (Al, Fe, Mg), low to moderate enrichments (10 ≥ EFc≥ 6) were observed for Sb and U in Presena and for Ag, As, Bi, Cd, Li, Mo, Pb, Sb and U in Lares. In addition, M-TE mass concentrations in larvae were up to ninety thousand times higher than in water, from 20 to 50 ng g-1 dry weight (d.w.; for Bi, Sb, Ta, Tl) to 1-4 mg g-1 d.w. (for Al, Fe, Na, and Mg). Larvae from Lares accumulated the largest amount of metals and metalloids, including those mostly used in the manufacture of artillery shells (As, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb; BAFs from 375 to about 11,500). This was expected as most of the WW1 battles in this mountain range were fought on the Lares glacier, where the greatest number of war relics are emerging. These results provide preliminary evidence of water contamination and bioaccumulation of metals and metalloids by glacial fauna as a possible legacy of WW1 in the Alps.

Concentrations and controls of dissolved inorganic carbon in Arctic summer sea ice and adjacent surface seawaters.

The carbonate chemistry of sea ice plays a critical role in global ocean carbon cycles, particularly in polar regions which are subject to significant climate change-induced sea ice variation. However, less is known about the interaction of carbonate system between sea ice and its adjacent seawaters due to sparse sampling and disparities in reported results. Here we provide an insight into this issue by collecting and measuring dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and associated environmental parameters in Arctic sea ice during a cruise in the summer of 2014. Our observations show that DIC in Arctic summer sea ice has a mean concentration of 463.3 ± 213.0 µmol/kg and appears to be controlled mainly by the fraction of brine water in the ice. The low Chl a and nutrients content in sea ice indicate minor contribution of biological uptake to sea-ice DIC in the western Arctic Ocean. The DIC concentration in surface water (<100 m depth) decreased from a mean of 2108.3 ± 45.4 µmol/kg in 1994 to a mean of 2052.4 ± 98.6 µmol/kg in 2014, due to the enhanced sea ice melting that dilutes the DIC concentrations of surrounding seawaters.

[QMEC-based Analysis of the Soil Microbial Functional Potentials across Different Tibetan Plateau Glacier Forelands].

Soil microorganisms dominate the biogeochemical cycles of elements in glacier forelands, which continue to expand due to the climate warming. We analyzed the soil microbial functional characteristics among three types of glacier forelands on the Tibetan Plateau: Yulong Glacier (Y), a temperate glacier; Tianshan Urumqi Glacier No.1 (T), a sub-continental glacier; and Laohugou Glacier No.12 (L), a continental glacier. Here, soil microbial functional genes were quantified using quantitative microbial element cycling technology (QMEC). We found that, in the three glacier forelands, the abundances of soil microbial functional genes related to hemicellulose degradation and reductive acetyl-CoA pathway were highest compared with other carbon-related functional genes. The main nitrogen cycling genes were involved in ammonification. The functional genes of the phosphorus cycle and sulfur cycle were related to organic phosphate mineralization and sulfur oxidation. Furthermore, the soils of the temperate glacier foreland with better hydrothermal conditions had the most complex microbial functional gene structure and the highest functional potentials, followed by those of the soils of continental glacier foreland with the driest environment. These significant differences in soil microbial functional genes among the three types of glacier forelands verified the impacts of geographic difference on microbial functional characteristics, as well as providing a basis for the study of soil microbial functions and biogeochemical cycles in glacier forelands.

Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales.

The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss.

Evidence for massive methane hydrate destabilization during the penultimate interglacial warming.

The stability of widespread methane hydrates in shallow subsurface sediments of the marine continental margins is sensitive to temperature increases experienced by upper intermediate waters. Destabilization of methane hydrates and ensuing release of methane would produce climatic feedbacks amplifying and accelerating global warming. Hence, improved assessment of ongoing intermediate water warming is crucially important, especially that resulting from a weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our study provides an independent paleoclimatic perspective by reconstructing the thermal structure and imprint of methane oxidation throughout a water column of 1,300 m. We studied a sediment sequence from the eastern equatorial Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea), a region containing abundant shallow subsurface methane hydrates. We focused on the early part of the penultimate interglacial and present a hitherto undocumented and remarkably large intermediate water warming of 6.8 °C in response to a brief episode of meltwater-induced, modest AMOC weakening centered at 126,000 to 125,000 y ago. The warming of intermediate waters to 14 °C significantly exceeds the stability field of methane hydrates. In conjunction with this warming, our study reveals an anomalously low δ13C spike throughout the entire water column, recorded as primary signatures in single and pooled shells of multitaxa foraminifers. This extremely negative δ13C excursion was almost certainly the result of massive destabilization of methane hydrates. This study documents and connects a sequence of climatic events and climatic feedback processes associated with and triggered by the penultimate climate warming that can serve as a paleoanalog for modern ongoing warming.

Changes in North Atlantic deep-water oxygenation across the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

The oxygen concentrations of oceanic deep-water and atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are intrinsically linked through organic carbon remineralization and storage as dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep sea. We present a high-resolution reconstruction of relative changes in oxygen concentration in the deep North Atlantic for the past 1.5 million years using the carbon isotope gradient between epifaunal and infaunal benthic foraminifera species as a proxy for paleo-oxygen. We report a significant (>40 micromole per kilogram) reduction in glacial Atlantic deep-water oxygenation at ~960 thousand to 900 thousand years ago that coincided with increased continental ice volume and a major change in ocean thermohaline circulation. Paleo-oxygen results support a scenario of decreasing deep-water oxygen concentrations, increased respired carbon storage, and a reduction in glacial pCO2 across the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

Contrasting the physical and chemical characteristics of dissolved organic matter between glacier and glacial runoff from a mountain glacier on the Tibetan Plateau.

Accelerated melting of mountain glaciers due to global warming has a significant impact on downstream biogeochemical evolution because a large amount of labile dissolved organic matter (DOM) is released. However, the DOM evolution processes from glacier to downstream are not well understood. To investigate these processes, samples from the glacial surface and terminating runoff of a mountain glacier on the Tibetan Plateau were collected simultaneously throughout the melting season. The samples were analyzed to determine the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) contents and chemical compositions by means of a combination of fluorescence excitation-emission matrix coupled with parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC) and Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). The results indicate that the DOC concentrations were higher in the snow samples than in the glacial runoff samples, although a significantly higher concentration of inorganic ions was found in the glacial runoff samples, suggesting the dominant source of DOM in the glacial runoff was the glacier. The EEM-PARAFAC revealed four fluorescent components in both the snow and glacial runoff samples. However, significantly different ratios between the four components of these two categories of samples suggested chemical, physical and/or biological evolution of DOM during transport. Molecular chemical composition analyses by FT-ICR MS revealed that the DOM composition varied dramatically between the glacier and the glacial runoff. More than 50 % of the molecules were transformed from aliphatic and peptide-like compounds in the snow samples into highly unsaturated and phenolic-like compounds in the glacial runoff samples. The potential chemical transformation of DOM was likely related to biological and/or photolytic evolution during transport. Our results suggest that chemical evolution of glacial DOM could occur during the downstream transport, which is expected to be useful for further research exploring the fate of DOM and carbon cycling from the cryospheric environment and evaluating the biogeochemical effects.

Water stable isotopes in snow along a traverse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: insights into moisture origins, air-masses distillation history, and climatic value.

This study investigated the water isotopic content (δ18O, δD, d-excess) of the surface snow along a 995 km traverse over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Möller Ice Stream - Institute Ice Stream to the upper reaches of the Pine Island Glacier drainage basin. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climatic record preserved in the snow. We analyzed 92 surface samples (~0.15-0.20 m deep), retrieved during 2014/2015 austral summer from every ~10 km along the traverse route, using the laser spectroscopy technique. We computed the isotopic-geographical characteristics and spatial co-isotopic empirical relationships and compared the isotopic results with the tropospheric mean annual temperature and air mass trajectories. Our isotopic results were sensitive to capturing the well-known climatic asymmetry between the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea (ABS; which receives more influence from warmer (oceanic) air masses) and Weddell Sea (WS; more influenced by colder (continental) air masses) sectors. Further, the spatial distribution of δs and d-excess and the co-isotopic relationships reflect two preferential fractionation paths: one from the coast of the ABS sector to the WS sector, and another from the coast of the WS sector to the inland. The Pacific Ocean is confirmed as the primary source of moisture.

A genome and gene catalog of glacier microbiomes.

Glaciers represent a unique inventory of microbial genetic diversity and a record of evolution. The Tibetan Plateau contains the largest area of low-latitude glaciers and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. By sequencing 85 metagenomes and 883 cultured isolates from 21 Tibetan glaciers covering snow, ice and cryoconite habitats, we present a specialized glacier microbial genome and gene catalog to archive glacial genomic and functional diversity. This comprehensive Tibetan Glacier Genome and Gene (TG2G) catalog includes 883 genomes and 2,358 metagenome-assembled genomes, which represent 968 candidate species spanning 30 phyla. The catalog also contains over 25 million non-redundant protein-encoding genes, the utility of which is demonstrated by the exploration of secondary metabolite biosynthetic potentials, virulence factor identification and global glacier metagenome comparison. The TG2G catalog is a valuable resource that enables enhanced understanding of the structure and functions of Tibetan glacial microbiomes.

Long-range transport of atmospheric microplastics deposited onto glacier in southeast Tibetan Plateau.

Micoroplastics (MPs) can be transported through atmospheric circulations, and have caused global attentions due to their potential risk to the environment. In this study, MPs in snowpit samples collected from Demula (DML) glacier in southeast Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results showed that the average abundance of MPs in snow was 9.55 ± 0.9 items L-1, with dominant shapes of plastic fibers and films. MPs size was dominated by MPs <200 µm, with detected minimum size of 48 µm from the DML glacier. MPs in snowpit indicated seasonal variations, showing relatively higher abundance during the monsoon season than that during the non-monsoon season. The chemical composition of MPs and backward air mass trajectory modeling revealed that MPs in DML snowpit mostly originated from the atmospheric long-range transport, suggesting the glacier in southeast Tibetan Plateau can be a temporal sink of atmospheric MPs. The surface structure of the MPs was rough and adhered to a large amount of mineral dust and metallic particles, revealed that these MPs have undergone severe weathering during transportation and after deposition. Based on the MPs data, multi-year average precipitation, and glacier mass balance of DML glacier, the deposition flux of MPs on DML glacier was estimated to be about 7640 ± 720 to 9550 ± 900 items m-2 yr-1 and the export from melting water was about 5.9 ± 1.3 × 109 to 6.6 ± 1.4 × 109 items yr-1, indicating the glacier may be also an important source of MPs to the downstream ecosystems. These results provided the current status of MPs pollution on the Tibetan Plateau glaciers and new data to the study of MPs in typical cryospheric regions.

Molecular compositions, optical properties, and implications of dissolved brown carbon in snow/ice on the Tibetan Plateau glaciers.

Brown carbon (BrC)/water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) plays a crucial role in glacier melting. A quantitative evaluation of the light absorption characteristics of WSOC on glacier melting is urgently needed, as the WSOC release from glaciers potentially affects the hydrological cycle, downstream ecological balance, and the global carbon cycle. In this work, the optical properties and composition of WSOC in surface snow/ice on four Tibetan Plateau (TP) glaciers were investigated using a three-dimensional fluorescence spectrometer and electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. The total light-absorption of WSOC in snow/ice at 250-400 nm (ultraviolet region) and 400-600 nm (visible region) accounted for about 60.42% and 27.17% of the light absorption by the total organics, respectively. Two protein-like substances (PRLIS), one humic-like substance (HULIS), and one undefined species of chromophores in snow/ice on the TP glacier surfaces were identified. The lignins and lipids were the main compounds in the TP glaciers and were presented as CHO and CHNO molecules, while CHNOS molecules were only observed in the southeast TP glacier. The light absorption capacity of WSOC in snow/ice was mainly affected by their oxidizing properties. PRLIS and undefined species were closely linked to microbial sources and the local environment of the glaciers (lignins and lipids), while HULIS was significantly affected by anthropogenic emissions (protein/amino sugars). Radiative forcing (RF)-induced by WSOC relative to black carbon were accounted for about 11.62 ± 12.07% and 8.40 ± 10.37% in surface snow and granular ice, respectively. The RF was estimated to be 1.14 and 6.36 W m-2 in surface snow and granular ice, respectively, during the melt season in the central TP glacier. These findings contribute to our understanding of WSOC's impact on glaciers and could serve as a baseline for WSOC research in cryospheric science.

Variation trends and attribution analysis of lakes in the Qiangtang Plateau, the Endorheic Basin of the Tibetan Plateau.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the area with most high-altitude lakes in the world, of which most are in the Qiangtang Plateau (QP), the endorheic basin of the TP. Since the 1990s, abundant studies have reported the accelerated expansion of lakes in the QP. However, the dominant factors affecting lakes expansion or shrinkage are still controversial. Here we extract six periods of 300 lakes according to the satellite image. It indicates that 90% of the lakes in the QP were expanding, mainly located in the middle of the plateau; 10% of the lakes tended to shrink, mainly located in the areas surrounding the plateau and near the Tanggula Mountain and Nyainqentanglha Mountain, with an altitude over 4500 m. Meanwhile, we explored the influence factors for lake area changes by analyzing the variations in precipitation and glacier. Seven different driving models leading to the lake changes are proposed. Lake expansion was mainly caused by the increase of precipitation and glacier melting, while the causes of lake shrinkage are quite different, such as the change of precipitation and evaporation, the geological structure of lake outlet, the increase of outflow caused by the more transformation of lake water from solid to liquid, etc. This study can provide some support for plateau grassland protection and ice lake outburst prevention.