Introgression and persistence of cultivar alleles in wild carrot (Daucus carota) populations in the United States.

PREMISE: Cultivated species and their wild relatives often hybridize in the wild, and the hybrids can survive and reproduce in some environments. However, it is unclear whether cultivar alleles are permanently incorporated into the wild genomes or whether they are purged by natural selection. This question is key to accurately assessing the risk of escape and spread of cultivar genes into wild populations. METHODS: We used genomic data and population genomic methods to study hybridization and introgression between cultivated and wild carrot (Daucus carota) in the United States. We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained via genotyping by sequencing for 450 wild individuals from 29 wild georeferenced populations in seven states and 144 cultivars from the United States, Europe, and Asia. RESULTS: Cultivated and wild carrot formed two genetically differentiated groups, and evidence of crop-wild admixture was detected in several but not all wild carrot populations in the United States. Two regions were identified where cultivar alleles were present in wild carrots: California and Nantucket Island (Massachusetts). Surprisingly, there was no evidence of introgression in some populations with a long-known history of sympatry with the crop, suggesting that post-hybridization barriers might prevent introgression in some areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide support for the introgression and long-term persistence of cultivar alleles in wild carrots populations. We thus anticipate that the release of genetically engineered (GE) cultivars would lead to the introduction and spread of GE alleles in wild carrot populations.

Disparities in Receipt of Guideline-adherent Blood Pressure Screening: An Observational Examination of Electronic Health Record Data from a Massachusetts Healthcare System.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of blood pressure (BP) screening according to the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines and differences according to social vulnerability indicators. STUDY DESIGN: We extracted electronic health record data from January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2018, from the largest healthcare system in Central Massachusetts. Outpatient visits for children aged 3-17 years without a prior hypertension diagnosis were included. Adherence was defined by the American Academy of Pediatrics guideline (≥1 BP screening for children with a body mass index [BMI] of <95th percentile) and at every encounter for children with a BMI of ≥95th percentile). Independent variables included social vulnerability indicators at the patient level (insurance type, language, Child Opportunity Index, race/ethnicity) and clinic level (location, Medicaid population). Covariates included child's age, sex, and BMI status, and clinic specialty, patient panel size, and number of healthcare providers. We used direct estimation to calculate prevalence estimates and multivariable mixed effects logistic regression to determine the odds of receiving guideline-adherent BP screening. RESULTS: Our sample comprised 19 695 children (median age, 11 years; 48% female) from 7 pediatric and 20 family medicine clinics. The prevalence of guideline-adherent BP screening was 89%. In our adjusted model, children with a BMI of ≥95th percentile, with public insurance, and who were patients at clinics with larger Medicaid populations and larger patient panels had a lower odds of receiving guideline-adherent BP screening. CONCLUSIONS: Despite overall high adherence to BP screening guidelines, patient- and clinic-level disparities were identified.

Overweight and Obesity in Brazilian Immigrants in Massachusetts, USA: A Time Series Analysis (2009-2020).

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is considered a growing public health problem by the Brazilian Ministry of Health and a global epidemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). In 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated the prevalence of adult obesity at 31.9% in the USA. The USA is one of the main destinations for Brazilian immigrants in search of better living conditions, and Massachusetts is one of the states with the highest presence of Brazilians. Changes in lifestyle and eating habits are often associated with increases in overweight and obesity in immigrants in the USA, especially Hispanics, an official classification that does not, however, include Brazilians. The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of overweight and obesity in Brazilian immigrants assisted by the Cambridge Health Alliance (CHA) healthcare network in Massachusetts. METHODS: This was an ecological time series study of 128,206 records of Brazilians aged between 18 and 60 years based on hospital data from 2009 to 2020. RESULTS: Mean age was 38.9 (SD = 10.6), and 61% of the sample were women. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 38.4% and 25.4%, respectively. Obesity exhibited an increasing trend, while eutrophy and overweight decreased during the study period. CONCLUSION: As little is known about the health of Brazilian immigrants in the USA, this study contributes to the literature on the subject. The observed increasing trends agree with the worldwide increase in obesity and indicate the need for future research exploring individual factors associated with immigrant acculturation.

Impact of United States 2017 Immigration Policy changes on missed appointments at two Massachusetts Safety-Net Hospitals.

INTRODUCTION: Studies have shown mixed findings regarding the impact of immigration policy changes on immigrants' utilization of primary care. METHODS: We used a difference-in-differences analysis to compare changes in missed primary care appointments over time across two groups: patients who received care in Spanish, Portuguese, or Haitian Creole, and non-Hispanic, white patients who received care in English. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex, race, insurance, hospital system, and presence of chronic conditions, immigration policy changes were associated with an absolute increase in the missed appointment prevalence of 0.74 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 0.34, 1.15) among Spanish, Portuguese and Haitian-Creole speakers. We estimated that missed appointments due to immigration policy changes resulted in lost revenue of over $185,000. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that immigration policy changes were associated with a significant increase in missed appointments among patients who receive medical care in languages other than English.

Five-Year Trends in Pediatric Mental Health Emergency Department Visits in Massachusetts: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate temporal changes in pediatric emergency department (ED) visits for mental health problems in Massachusetts based on diagnoses and patient characteristics and to assess trends in all-cause pediatric ED visits. STUDY DESIGN: This statewide population-based retrospective cohort study used the Massachusetts All-Payer Claims Database, which includes almost all Massachusetts residents. The study sample consisted of residents aged <21 years who were enrolled in a health plan between 2013 and 2017. Using multivariate regression, we examined temporal trends in mental health-related and all-cause ED visits in 2013-2017, with person-quarter as the unit of analysis; we also estimated differential trends by sociodemographic and diagnostic subgroups. The outcomes were number of mental health-related (any diagnosis, plus 14 individual diagnoses) and all-cause ED visits/1000 patients/quarter. RESULTS: Of the 967 590 Massachusetts residents in our study (representing 14.8 million person-quarters), the mean age was 8.1 years, 48% were female, and 57% had Medicaid coverage. For this population, mental health-related (any) and all-cause ED visits decreased from 2013 to 2017 (P < .001). Persons aged 18-21 years experienced the largest declines in mental health-related (63.0% decrease) and all-cause (60.9% decrease) ED visits. Although mental health-related ED visits declined across most diagnostic subgroups, ED visits related to autism spectrum disorder-related and suicide-related diagnoses increased by 108% and 44%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Overall rates of pediatric ED visits with mental health diagnoses in Massachusetts declined from 2013 to 2017, although ED visits with autism- and suicide-related diagnoses increased. Massachusetts' policies and care delivery models aimed at pediatric mental health may hold promise, although there are important opportunities for improvement.

A Possible Sterilizing Cure of HIV-1 Infection Without Stem Cell Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: A sterilizing cure of HIV-1 infection has been reported in 2 persons living with HIV-1 who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantations from donors who were homozygous for the CCR5Δ32 gene polymorphism. However, this has been considered elusive during natural infection. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate persistent HIV-1 reservoir cells in an elite controller with undetectable HIV-1 viremia for more than 8 years in the absence of antiretroviral therapy. DESIGN: Detailed investigation of virologic and immunologic characteristics. SETTING: Tertiary care centers in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Boston, Massachusetts. PATIENT: A patient with HIV-1 infection and durable drug-free suppression of HIV-1 replication. MEASUREMENTS: Analysis of genome-intact and replication-competent HIV-1 using near-full-length individual proviral sequencing and viral outgrowth assays, respectively; analysis of HIV-1 plasma RNA by ultrasensitive HIV-1 viral load testing. RESULTS: No genome-intact HIV-1 proviruses were detected in analysis of a total of 1.188 billion peripheral blood mononuclear cells and 503 million mononuclear cells from placental tissues. Seven defective proviruses, some of them derived from clonally expanded cells, were detected. A viral outgrowth assay failed to retrieve replication-competent HIV-1 from 150 million resting CD4+ T cells. No HIV-1 RNA was detected in 4.5 mL of plasma. LIMITATIONS: Absence of evidence for intact HIV-1 proviruses in large numbers of cells is not evidence of absence of intact HIV-1 proviruses. A sterilizing cure of HIV-1 can never be empirically proved. CONCLUSION: Genome-intact and replication-competent HIV-1 were not detected in an elite controller despite analysis of massive numbers of cells from blood and tissues, suggesting that this patient may have naturally achieved a sterilizing cure of HIV-1 infection. These observations raise the possibility that a sterilizing cure may be an extremely rare but possible outcome of HIV-1 infection. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Telemedicine Can Support Measurable and High-Quality Epilepsy Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Routine outpatient epilepsy care has shifted from in-person to telemedicine visits in response to safety concerns posed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. But whether telemedicine can support and maintain standardized documentation of high-quality epilepsy care remains unknown. In response, the authors conducted a quality improvement study at a level 4 epilepsy center between January 20, 2019, and May 31, 2020. Weekly average completion proportion of standardized documentation used by a team of neurologists for adult patients for the diagnosis of epilepsy, seizure classification, and frequency were analyzed. By December 15, 2019, a 94% average weekly completion proportion of standardized epilepsy care documentation was achieved that was maintained through May 31, 2020. Moreover, during the period of predominately telemedicine encounters in response to the pandemic, the completion proportion was 90%. This study indicates that high completion of standardized documentation of seizure-related information can be sustained during telemedicine appointments for routine outpatient epilepsy care at a level 4 epilepsy center.

Microplastic abundance in gull nests in relation to urbanization.

Human activity and urbanization are having profound effects on natural landscapes and ecosystems. The presence and persistence of human-made materials such as microplastics can have major impacts on the health of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. We quantified microplastics in herring gull (Larus argentatus) and great black-backed gull (Larus marinus) nests at three colonies in the northeast United States that varied in their degree of urbanization: Jamaica Bay (JB) in New York City, Youngs Island (YI) on Long Island, New York, and Tuckernuck Island (TN) in Massachusetts. Nests in urban colonies contained a higher proportion of microplastics than those in the more remote colony. Our results link urbanization with microplastic accumulation in coastal environments and suggest that assessing microplastics in seabird nests could provide a means of evaluating microplastics encountered by seabirds and other coastal marine animals.

Disability, Hospital Care, and Cost: Utilization of Emergency and Inpatient Care by a Cohort of Children with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

OBJECTIVE: To use medical claims data to determine patterns of healthcare utilization in children with intellectual and developmental disabilities, including frequency of service utilization, conditions that require hospital care, and costs. STUDY DESIGN: Medicaid administrative claims from 4 states (Iowa, Massachusetts, New York, and South Carolina) from years 2008-2013 were analyzed, including 108 789 children (75 417 male; 33 372 female) under age 18 years with intellectual and developmental disabilities. Diagnoses included cerebral palsy, autism, fetal alcohol syndrome, Down syndrome/trisomy/autosomal deletions, other genetic conditions, and intellectual disability. Utilization of emergency department (ED) and inpatient hospital services were analyzed for 2012. RESULTS: Children with intellectual and developmental disabilities used both inpatient and ED care at 1.8 times that of the general population. Epilepsy/convulsions was the most frequent reason for hospitalization at 20 times the relative risk of the general population. Other frequent diagnoses requiring hospitalization were mood disorders, pneumonia, paralysis, and asthma. Annual per capita expenses for hospitalization and ED care were 100% higher for children with intellectual and developmental disabilities, compared with the general population ($153 348 562 and $76 654 361, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Children with intellectual and developmental disabilities utilize significantly more ED and inpatient care than other children, which results in higher annual costs. Recognizing chronic conditions that increase risk for hospital care can provide guidance for developing outpatient care strategies that anticipate common clinical problems in intellectual and developmental disabilities and ensure responsive management before hospital care is needed.

Exploring attitudes of adolescents and caregivers towards community-based delivery of the HPV vaccine: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among adolescents is an important strategy to prevent cervical and other cancers in adulthood. However, uptake remains far below the Healthy People 2020 targets for the US. Given the barriers to population-level vaccination policies and challenges to incorporating additional action items during clinical visits, we sought to explore alternative delivery mechanisms, specifically delivery of the vaccine in community settings. METHODS: We conducted six focus groups (three with adolescents aged 11-14 who had not received the HPV vaccine and three with caregivers of adolescents meeting those criteria) from Black, Latino, and Brazilian communities in Massachusetts. We utilized a framework analysis approach that involved a multi-stage coding process employing both prefigured and emergent codes. Initial interpretations were refined through consultation with an advisory board. RESULTS: Adolescents and caregivers expressed a range of concerns about the HPV vaccine and also described interest in learning more about the vaccine, emphasizing the importance of a relationship with a trusted provider as a facilitator of vaccine acceptance. Regarding community-based delivery of the vaccine, reactions were mainly negative. However, adolescents and caregivers noted that receiving information in community settings that could seed a conversation with a trusted provider would be welcome. Interestingly, the notion of a trusted provider seemed to extend broadly to practitioners linked to the trusted main provider. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights an opportunity for increasing HPV vaccination among some racial and ethnic minority populations by leveraging trusted community organizations to provide information and seed conversations with a potentially broad group of trusted providers. A task-shifting approach, or reliance on staff with fewer formal credentials, may offer opportunities to support vaccination in resource-constrained settings.

Pediatric Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses.

OBJECTIVES: As schools plan for re-opening, understanding the potential role children play in the coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the factors that drive severe illness in children is critical. STUDY DESIGN: Children ages 0-22 years with suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection presenting to urgent care clinics or being hospitalized for confirmed/suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) at Massachusetts General Hospital were offered enrollment in the Massachusetts General Hospital Pediatric COVID-19 Biorepository. Enrolled children provided nasopharyngeal, oropharyngeal, and/or blood specimens. SARS-CoV-2 viral load, ACE2 RNA levels, and serology for SARS-CoV-2 were quantified. RESULTS: A total of 192 children (mean age, 10.2 ± 7.0 years) were enrolled. Forty-nine children (26%) were diagnosed with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection; an additional 18 children (9%) met the criteria for MIS-C. Only 25 children (51%) with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection presented with fever; symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, if present, were nonspecific. Nasopharyngeal viral load was highest in children in the first 2 days of symptoms, significantly higher than hospitalized adults with severe disease (P = .002). Age did not impact viral load, but younger children had lower angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 expression (P = .004). Immunoglobulin M (IgM) and Immunoglobulin G (IgG) to the receptor binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein were increased in severe MIS-C (P < .001), with dysregulated humoral responses observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals that children may be a potential source of contagion in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic despite having milder disease or a lack of symptoms; immune dysregulation is implicated in severe postinfectious MIS-C.

Brazilian immigrant fathers' perspectives on child's eating and feeding practices: a qualitative study conducted in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Brazilians comprise a rapidly growing immigrant Latino group in the USA, yet little research has focused on health issues affecting Brazilian children in immigrant families. As increasing evidence is documenting fathers' influential role in their children's eating behaviours and ultimately weight status, the current study sought to explore the Brazilian immigrant fathers' perspectives and practices related to child's feeding practices and their preschool-aged children's eating. DESIGN: Qualitative study using in-depth, semi-structured interviews. Interviews were conducted in Portuguese by native Brazilian research staff using a semi-structured interview guide. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analysed thematically using a hybrid approach that incorporated deductive and inductive analytical approaches. SETTING: Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-one Brazilian immigrant fathers who had at least one child aged 2-5 years. RESULTS: Results revealed fathers' awareness of the importance of healthy eating for their children, their influence as role models and their involvement in feeding routines of their preschool-aged children. Moreover, fathers were receptive to participating in family interventions to promote their children's healthy eating. Nearly all fathers reported wanting to learn more and to do 'what's right' for their children. CONCLUSIONS: The current study provides new information about Brazilian immigrant fathers' views about factors influencing their children's healthy eating behaviours and paternal feeding practices. Future research should quantify fathers' feeding styles and practices and solicit fathers' input in the design of culturally appropriate family interventions targeting the home environment of preschool-aged children of Brazilian immigrant families.

Prenatal Depression and Risk of Short Interpregnancy Interval in a Predominantly Puerto Rican Population.

Background: Short interpregnancy interval (IPI) is associated with risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes; however, few studies have evaluated the role of depression as a risk factor for short IPI. Puerto Rican women in the United States experience disparities in adverse birth outcomes and have the highest birth rates. Methods: We analyzed the association between prenatal depressive symptoms and IPI in Proyecto Buena Salud, a prospective cohort of predominantly Puerto Rican women in Western Massachusetts (2006-2011). Depression was measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in early, mid, and late pregnancy. We calculated follow-up time as the difference between the date of delivery of the index pregnancy and the last menstrual period of the subsequent pregnancy using medical records and billing data. We defined short IPI as ≤18 months. Results: Of 1262 eligible women, 35% (n = 440) had at least probable minor depression (EPDS scores ≥13) and 25% (n = 315) had probable major depression (EPDS scores ≥15). Participants were followed for a median of 3.7 years (interquartile range = 1.4-6.0 years) and 240 (20.6%) participants experienced a short IPI. After adjusting for risk factors, women with probable minor depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.88) and probable major depression (aOR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.02-1.97) during pregnancy had increased odds of short IPI. Conclusions: Prenatal depressive symptoms were common in this Puerto Rican population and were associated with a modest increase in odds of short IPI. Further examination of the pathways through which mental health may affect IPI in vulnerable populations is warranted.

The Impact of Massachusetts Health Reform on Colorectal and Breast Cancer Stage at Diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the expansion of health insurance coverage in Massachusetts under state health reform as a natural experiment to investigate whether expanded insurance coverage reduced the likelihood of advanced stage colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer (BCA) diagnosis. METHODS: Our study populations include CRC or BCA patients aged 50-64 years observed in the Massachusetts Cancer Registry and Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries for 2001-2013. We use difference-in-differences regression models to estimate changes in the likelihood of advanced stage diagnosis after Massachusetts health reform, relative to comparison states without expanded coverage (Connecticut, New Jersey, Georgia, Kentucky, and Michigan). RESULTS: We find some suggestive evidence of a decline in the proportion of advanced stage CRC cases. Approximately half of the CRC patients in Massachusetts and control states were diagnosed at advanced stages pre reform; there was a 2 percentage-point increase in this proportion across control states and slight decline in Massachusetts post reform. Adjusted difference-in-difference estimates suggest a 3.4 percentage-point (P=0.005) or 7% decline, relative to Massachusetts baseline, in the likelihood of advanced stage diagnosis after the reform in Massachusetts, though this result is sensitive to years included in the analysis. We did not find a significant effect of reform on BCA stage at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in the likelihood of advanced stage CRC diagnosis after Massachusetts health reform may suggest improvements in access to health care and CRC screening. Similar declines were not observed for BCA, perhaps due to established BCA-specific safety-net programs.

Prevalence and predictors of overweight and obesity in Brazilian immigrants in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity are important risk factors for chronic non-communicable diseases, and their prevalence is on the rise worldwide. This study seeks to describe the prevalence and predictors of overweight and obesity in Brazilian immigrants living in Massachusetts, United States of America (USA). METHODS: Modeled after a survey on behavioral risk factors for chronic disease conducted annually in Brazil (Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico: Vigitel), Brazilian immigrants aged 18+ (n = 361) were surveyed between December 2013 and March 2014. Information was obtained from consenting participants regarding their demographic characteristics, physical activity, dietary and lifestyle habits, and other behavioral risk factors. Weight status was estimated from body mass index (BMI), calculated from self-reported height and weight data. Participants were categorized as overweight/obese if their BMI was ≥25; overweight and obese categories were combined to ensure appropriate sample size. Prevalence of overweight/obesity was estimated using STATA, and significant predictors were identified via multi-variable logistic regression. Odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p-values were determined. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of overweight/obesity in the sample was 47.6%. Significant predictors of overweight and obesity were gender (men OR 2.30, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.78; women are comparison group), working in the 3 months prior to the survey (OR 2.90, 95% CI: 1.01, 8.30), and longer duration living in the USA (OR per additional year 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11). Significant dietary predictors of overweight/obesity included 5 or more days per week of consumption of red meat (OR red meat 3.70, 95% CI: 1.47, 9.26) or of sweetened beverages, like soft drinks also known as soda (OR soda 2.40, 95% CI: 1.00, 5.78) compared with less frequent consumption of these foods. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that long duration of time lived in the USA increases odds of overweight and obesity for Brazilian immigrants living in Massachusetts. Efforts to curb increases in overweight and obesity in this population should focus not only on the men and those who work but also the women. Possible intervention measures should target soda (soft drink) and red meat consumption in Brazilian immigrants.

The Association of Concomitant Maternal Marijuana Use on Health Outcomes for Opioid Exposed Newborns in Massachusetts, 2003-2009.

This population-based study showed that maternal opioid plus marijuana use during pregnancy was associated with increased odds of prematurity and low birth weight but lower odds of neonatal abstinence syndrome and prolonged hospitalization compared with opioid exposure without marijuana use. Further research should evaluate the biologic mechanisms responsible for these outcomes.

Performance of Breast Cancer Risk-Assessment Models in a Large Mammography Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Several breast cancer risk-assessment models exist. Few studies have evaluated predictive accuracy of multiple models in large screening populations. METHODS: We evaluated the performance of the BRCAPRO, Gail, Claus, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC), and Tyrer-Cuzick models in predicting risk of breast cancer over 6 years among 35 921 women aged 40-84 years who underwent mammography screening at Newton-Wellesley Hospital from 2007 to 2009. We assessed model discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and assessed calibration by comparing the ratio of observed-to-expected (O/E) cases. We calculated the square root of the Brier score and positive and negative predictive values of each model. RESULTS: Our results confirmed the good calibration and comparable moderate discrimination of the BRCAPRO, Gail, Tyrer-Cuzick, and BCSC models. The Gail model had slightly better O/E ratio and AUC (O/E = 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91 to 1.06, AUC = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.65) compared with BRCAPRO (O/E = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.02, AUC = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.63) and Tyrer-Cuzick (version 8, O/E = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.91, AUC = 0.62, 95% 0.60 to 0.64) in the full study population, and the BCSC model had the highest AUC among women with available breast density information (O/E = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.89 to 1.05, AUC = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.66). All models had poorer predictive accuracy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive and triple-negative breast cancers than hormone receptor positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative breast cancers. CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of patients undergoing mammography screening, existing risk prediction models had similar, moderate predictive accuracy and good calibration overall. Models that incorporate additional genetic and nongenetic risk factors and estimate risk of tumor subtypes may further improve breast cancer risk prediction.

Trends in Breastfeeding Interventions, Skin-to-Skin Care, and Sudden Infant Death in the First 6 Days after Birth.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if implementation of skin-to-skin care and the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) contributes to sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) and asphyxia in the first 6 days after birth. STUDY DESIGN: Survey data were used to determine a correlation between BFHI and deaths from SUID and asphyxia among infants <7 days in the US and Massachusetts. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, implementation of BFHI was tracked from 2004-2016 and skin-to-skin care was tracked from 2007-2015. Using data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, SUID and asphyxia were tracked from 2004-2016. RESULTS: Nationally, births in Baby-Friendly facilities rose from 1.8% to 18.3% and the percentage of facilities in which most dyads experienced skin-to-skin care rose from 40% to 83%. SUID prevalence among infants <7 days was rare (0.72% of neonatal deaths) and decreased significantly from 2004-2009 compared with 2010-2016, from 0.033 per 1000 live births to 0.028, OR 0.85 (95% CI 0.77, 0.94). In Massachusetts, births in Baby-Friendly facilities rose from 2.8% to 13.9% and skin-to-skin care rose from 50% to 97.8%. SUID prevalence decreased from 2010-2016 compared with 2004-2009: OR 0.32 (95% CI 0.13, 0.82), with 0 asphyxia deaths during the 13-year period. CONCLUSION: Increasing rates of breastfeeding initiatives and skin-to-skin care are temporally associated with decreasing SUID prevalence in the first 6 days after birth in the US and Massachusetts.

Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk. / [Fatalidades por tránsito en Maryland y Massachusetts evaluadas en el contexto de una caminata al azar probabilista.]

Introduction: The analysis of injuries caused by traffic from a physical and mathematical perspective can help improve road safety strategies. Objective: Predict the dynamics of traffic fatalities in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts for the years 2004 and 2014 in the context of probabilistic random walk. Methods: An analysis was made of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic per year, in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts between the years 1994-2003 and 1994-2013. The behavior of these values was analyzed as a probabilistic random walk; for this, the probabilistic lengths were found for each year, during the period studied and four probability spaces were analyzed, with which it was possible to analyze their behavior, to establish a prediction of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic for the years 2004 and 2014. Results: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Main conclusion: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Conclusions: the behavior of traffic fatalities in Maryland and Massachusetts presented a predictable self-organization from the context of probabilistic random walk, constituting a useful tool for analyzing the operation of road safety strategies.

Antecedentes: El análisis de los accidentes de tránsito desde una perspectiva física y matemática puede ayudar a mejorar las estrategias viales de seguridad. Objetivo: Obtener una predicción de la dinámica de fatalidades a causa del tráfico en los estados de Maryland y Massachusetts para los años 2004 y 2014 en el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista. Métodos: Se realizó un análisis del número de fatalidades totales causadas por el tráfico al año, en los estados de Maryland y Massachusetts entre los años 1994-2003 y 1994-2013. El comportamiento de estos valores fue analizado como una caminata al azar probabilista; para ello se hallaron las longitudes probabilistas para cada año, durante el periodo estudiado y se analizaron cuatro espacios de probabilidad, con los que fue posible analizar su comportamiento, para establecer una predicción del número de fatalidades totales causadas por el tráfico para los años 2004 y 2014. Resultados: Las predicciones para los años 2014 y 2004 para Maryland y Massachusetts al ser comparados con los valores reales el porcentaje de acierto fue del 98%. Conclusión principal: el comportamiento de las fatalidades de tráfico en Maryland y Massachusetts presentó una autoorganización predecible desde el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista, constituyéndose como una herramienta útil para el análisis del funcionamiento de las estrategias de seguridad vial.

Unpacking the heritability of body mass index and other ratios.

OBJECTIVES: Ratios of weight to height, especially body mass index (BMI = kg/m2 ), are often used in epidemiological and genetic studies of health, but the limitations of quantitative genetic analysis of ratios are not widely known. The heritability of these ratios can be closely approximated from a bivariate quantitative genetic model of weight and height which clarifies how BMI heritabilities change. METHODS: I explored this bivariate approximation and alternative measures through simulated datasets fit with linear mixed models. Simulated data were based on published heritabilities and other statistics for BMI and related anthropometric dimensions from four human samples. RESULTS: Inspection of the bivariate approximation and analysis of simulated data show the heritability of weight/height crucially depends on the phenotypic (rP ) and genetic correlations (rA ) between weight and height. Changes in these correlations can have dramatic effects on the heritability of BMI. For example, when rP ≪ rA heritability of BMI is reduced to 35-50% of its value when the correlations are equal. DISCUSSION: Increasing adiposity likely decreases the phenotypic correlations more than the genetic correlation resulting in reduced heritability of the ratio. This contrasts with the commonly reported stability or increase of BMI heritability and implies it may result from increased genetic variance in weight in obesogenic environments. The bivariate model offers other advantages over ratios, including estimating the conditional genetic variance or heritability of weight that is unassociated with height, which may prove useful in quantitative and molecular genetic studies.