A New Method for Low Density Distribution Modeling and Near Threatened Species: The Study Case of Plectrohyla Guatemalensis.

We introduce a model that can be used for the description of the distribution of species when there is scarcity of data, based on our previous work (Ballesteros et al. J Math Biol 85(4):31, 2022). We address challenges in modeling species that are seldom observed in nature, for example species included in The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN 2023). We introduce a general method and test it using a case study of a near threatened species of amphibians called Plectrohyla Guatemalensis (see IUCN 2023) in a region of the UNESCO natural reserve "Tacaná Volcano", in the border between Mexico and Guatemala. Since threatened species are difficult to find in nature, collected data can be extremely reduced. This produces a mathematical problem in the sense that the usual modeling in terms of Markov random fields representing individuals associated to locations in a grid generates artificial clusters around the observations, which are unreasonable. We propose a different approach in which our random variables describe yearly averages of expectation values of the number of individuals instead of individuals (and they take values on a compact interval). Our approach takes advantage of intuitive insights from environmental properties: in nature individuals are attracted or repulsed by specific features (Ballesteros et al. J Math Biol 85(4):31, 2022). Drawing inspiration from quantum mechanics, we incorporate quantum Hamiltonians into classical statistical mechanics (i.e. Gibbs measures or Markov random fields). The equilibrium between spreading and attractive/repulsive forces governs the behavior of the species, expressed through a global control problem involving an energy operator.

A Theoretical Comparison of Alternative Male Mating Strategies in Cephalopods and Fishes.

We used computer simulations of growth, mating and death of cephalopods and fishes to explore the effect of different life-history strategies on the relative prevalence of alternative male mating strategies. Specifically, we investigated the consequences of single or multiple matings per lifetime, mating strategy switching, cannibalism, resource stochasticity, and altruism towards relatives. We found that a combination of single (semelparous) matings, cannibalism and an absence of mating strategy changes in one lifetime led to a more strictly partitioned parameter space, with a reduced region where the two mating strategies co-exist in similar numbers. Explicitly including Hamilton's rule in simulations of the social system of a Cichlid led to an increase of dominant males, at the expense of both sneakers and dwarf males ("super-sneakers"). Our predictions provide general bounds on the viable ratios of alternative male mating strategies with different life-histories, and under possibly rapidly changing ecological situations.

A branching stochastic evolutionary model of the B-cell repertoire.

We propose a stochastic framework to describe the evolution of the B-cell repertoire during germinal center (GC) reactions. Our model is formulated as a multitype age-dependent branching process with time-varying immigration. The immigration process captures the mechanism by which founder B cells initiate clones by gradually seeding GC over time, while the branching process describes the temporal evolution of the composition of these clones. The model assigns a type to each cell to represent attributes of interest. Examples of attributes include the binding affinity class of the B cells, their clonal family, or the nucleotide sequence of the heavy and light chains of their receptors. The process is generally non-Markovian. We present its properties, including as t → ∞ when the process is supercritical, the most relevant case to study expansion of GC B cells. We introduce temporal alpha and beta diversity indices for multitype branching processes. We focus on the dynamics of clonal dominance, highlighting its non-stationarity, and the accumulation of somatic hypermutations in the context of sequential immunization. We evaluate the impact of the ongoing seeding of GC by founder B cells on the dynamics of the B-cell repertoire, and quantify the effect of precursor frequency and antigen availability on the timing of GC entry. An application of the model illustrates how it may help with interpretation of BCR sequencing data.

Vaccination for communicable endemic diseases: optimal allocation of initial and booster vaccine doses.

For some communicable endemic diseases (e.g., influenza, COVID-19), vaccination is an effective means of preventing the spread of infection and reducing mortality, but must be augmented over time with vaccine booster doses. We consider the problem of optimally allocating a limited supply of vaccines over time between different subgroups of a population and between initial versus booster vaccine doses, allowing for multiple booster doses. We first consider an SIS model with interacting population groups and four different objectives: those of minimizing cumulative infections, deaths, life years lost, or quality-adjusted life years lost due to death. We solve the problem sequentially: for each time period, we approximate the system dynamics using Taylor series expansions, and reduce the problem to a piecewise linear convex optimization problem for which we derive intuitive closed-form solutions. We then extend the analysis to the case of an SEIS model. In both cases vaccines are allocated to groups based on their priority order until the vaccine supply is exhausted. Numerical simulations show that our analytical solutions achieve results that are close to optimal with objective function values significantly better than would be obtained using simple allocation rules such as allocation proportional to population group size. In addition to being accurate and interpretable, the solutions are easy to implement in practice. Interpretable models are particularly important in public health decision making.

Nonlinear compartmental modeling to monitor ovarian follicle population dynamics on the whole lifespan.

In this work, we introduce a compartmental model of ovarian follicle development all along lifespan, based on ordinary differential equations. The model predicts the changes in the follicle numbers in different maturation stages with aging. Ovarian follicles may either move forward to the next compartment (unidirectional migration) or degenerate and disappear (death). The migration from the first follicle compartment corresponds to the activation of quiescent follicles, which is responsible for the progressive exhaustion of the follicle reserve (ovarian aging) until cessation of reproductive activity. The model consists of a data-driven layer embedded into a more comprehensive, knowledge-driven layer encompassing the earliest events in follicle development. The data-driven layer is designed according to the most densely sampled experimental dataset available on follicle numbers in the mouse. Its salient feature is the nonlinear formulation of the activation rate, whose formulation includes a feedback term from growing follicles. The knowledge-based, coating layer accounts for cutting-edge studies on the initiation of follicle development around birth. Its salient feature is the co-existence of two follicle subpopulations of different embryonic origins. We then setup a complete estimation strategy, including the study of structural identifiability, the elaboration of a relevant optimization criterion combining different sources of data (the initial dataset on follicle numbers, together with data in conditions of perturbed activation, and data discriminating the subpopulations) with appropriate error models, and a model selection step. We finally illustrate the model potential for experimental design (suggestion of targeted new data acquisition) and in silico experiments.

Ancestral reproductive bias in continuous-time branching trees under various sampling schemes.

Cheek and Johnston (JMB 86:70, 2023) consider a continuous-time Bienaymé-Galton-Watson tree conditioned on being alive at time T. They study the reproduction events along the ancestral lineage of an individual randomly sampled from all those alive at time T. We give a short proof of an extension of their main results (Cheek and Johnston in JMB 86:70, 2023, Theorems 2.3 and 2.4) to the more general case of Bellman-Harris processes. Our proof also sheds light onto the probabilistic structure of the rate of the reproduction events. A similar method will be applied to explain (i) the different ancestral reproduction bias appearing in work by Geiger (JAP 36:301-309, 1999) and (ii) the fact that the sampling rule considered by Chauvin et al. (SPA 39:117-130, 1991), (Theorem 1) leads to a time homogeneous process along the ancestral lineage.

Parasite infection in a cell population: role of the partitioning kernel.

We consider a cell population subject to a parasite infection. Cells divide at a constant rate and, at division, share the parasites they contain between their two daughter cells. The sharing may be asymmetric, and its law may depend on the number of parasites in the mother. Cells die at a rate which may depend on the number of parasites they carry, and are also killed when this number explodes. We study the survival of the cell population as well as the mean number of parasites in the cells, and focus on the role of the parasites partitioning kernel at division.

Mixed uncertainty analysis on pumping by peristaltic hearts using Dempster-Shafer theory.

In this paper, we introduce the numerical strategy for mixed uncertainty propagation based on probability and Dempster-Shafer theories, and apply it to the computational model of peristalsis in a heart-pumping system. Specifically, the stochastic uncertainty in the system is represented with random variables while epistemic uncertainty is represented using non-probabilistic uncertain variables with belief functions. The mixed uncertainty is propagated through the system, resulting in the uncertainty in the chosen quantities of interest (QoI, such as flow volume, cost of transport and work). With the introduced numerical method, the uncertainty in the statistics of QoIs will be represented using belief functions. With three representative probability distributions consistent with the belief structure, global sensitivity analysis has also been implemented to identify important uncertain factors and the results have been compared between different peristalsis models. To reduce the computational cost, physics constrained generalized polynomial chaos method is adopted to construct cheaper surrogates as approximations for the full simulation.

Dynamics of simplicial SEIRS epidemic model: global asymptotic stability and neural Lyapunov functions.

The transmission of infectious diseases on a particular network is ubiquitous in the physical world. Here, we investigate the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases with an incubation period using a networked compartment model that contains simplicial interactions, a typical high-order structure. We establish a simplicial SEIRS model and find that the proportion of infected individuals in equilibrium increases due to the many-body connections, regardless of the type of connections used. We analyze the dynamics of the established model, including existence and local asymptotic stability, and highlight differences from existing models. Significantly, we demonstrate global asymptotic stability using the neural Lyapunov function, a machine learning technique, with both numerical simulations and rigorous analytical arguments. We believe that our model owns the potential to provide valuable insights into transmission mechanisms of infectious diseases on high-order network structures, and that our approach and theory of using neural Lyapunov functions to validate model asymptotic stability can significantly advance investigations on complex dynamics of infectious disease.

Evolutionary Game Dynamics with Environmental Feedback in a Network with Two Communities.

Recent developments of eco-evolutionary models have shown that evolving feedbacks between behavioral strategies and the environment of game interactions, leading to changes in the underlying payoff matrix, can impact the underlying population dynamics in various manners. We propose and analyze an eco-evolutionary game dynamics model on a network with two communities such that players interact with other players in the same community and those in the opposite community at different rates. In our model, we consider two-person matrix games with pairwise interactions occurring on individual edges and assume that the environmental state depends on edges rather than on nodes or being globally shared in the population. We analytically determine the equilibria and their stability under a symmetric population structure assumption, and we also numerically study the replicator dynamics of the general model. The model shows rich dynamical behavior, such as multiple transcritical bifurcations, multistability, and anti-synchronous oscillations. Our work offers insights into understanding how the presence of community structure impacts the eco-evolutionary dynamics within and between niches.

Measles Infection Dose Responses: Insights from Mathematical Modeling.

How viral infections develop can change based on the number of viruses initially entering the body. The understanding of the impacts of infection doses remains incomplete, in part due to challenging constraints, and a lack of research. Gaining more insights is crucial regarding the measles virus (MV). The higher the MV infection dose, the earlier the peak of acute viremia, but the magnitude of the peak viremia remains almost constant. Measles is highly contagious, causes immunosuppression such as lymphopenia, and contributes substantially to childhood morbidity and mortality. This work investigated mechanisms underlying the observed wild-type measles infection dose responses in cynomolgus monkeys. We fitted longitudinal data on viremia using maximum likelihood estimation, and used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate relevant biological hypotheses and their respective model parameterizations. The lowest AIC indicates a linear relationship between the infection dose, the initial viral load, and the initial number of activated MV-specific T cells. Early peak viremia is associated with high initial number of activated MV-specific T cells. Thus, when MV infection dose increases, the initial viremia and associated immune cell stimulation increase, and reduce the time it takes for T cell killing to be sufficient, thereby allowing dose-independent peaks for viremia, MV-specific T cells, and lymphocyte depletion. Together, these results suggest that the development of measles depends on virus-host interactions at the start and the efficiency of viral control by cellular immunity. These relationships are additional motivations for prevention, vaccination, and early treatment for measles.

New measures of number line estimation performance reveal children's ordinal understanding of numbers.

Children's performance on the number line estimation task, often measured by the percentage of absolute error, predicts their later mathematics achievement. This task may also reveal (a) children's ordinal understanding of the target numbers in relation to each other and the benchmarks (e.g., endpoints, midpoint) and (b) the ordinal skills that are a necessary precursor to children's ability to understand the interval nature of a number line as measured by percentage of absolute error. Using data from 104 U.S. kindergartners, we measured whether children's estimates were correctly sequenced across trials and correctly positioned relative to given benchmarks within trials at two time points. For both time points, we found that each ordinal error measure revealed a distinct pattern of data distribution, providing opportunities to tap into different aspects of children's ordinal understanding. Furthermore, children who made fewer ordinal errors scored higher on the Test of Early Mathematics Ability and showed greater improvement on their interval understanding of numbers as reflected by a larger reduction of percentage of absolute error from Time 1 to Time 2. The findings suggest that our number line measures reveal individual differences in children's ordinal understanding of numbers, and that such understanding may be a precursor to their interval understanding and later mathematics performance.

Dimensions of Level-1 Group-Based Phylogenetic Networks.

Phylogenetic networks represent evolutionary histories of sets of taxa where horizontal evolution or hybridization has occurred. Placing a Markov model of evolution on a phylogenetic network gives a model that is particularly amenable to algebraic study by representing it as an algebraic variety. In this paper, we give a formula for the dimension of the variety corresponding to a triangle-free level-1 phylogenetic network under a group-based evolutionary model. On our way to this, we give a dimension formula for codimension zero toric fiber products. We conclude by illustrating applications to identifiability.

Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Intervention Programs for Malaria Control.

Malaria remains a global health problem despite the many attempts to control and eradicate it. There is an urgent need to understand the current transmission dynamics of malaria and to determine the interventions necessary to control malaria. In this paper, we seek to develop a fit-for-purpose mathematical model to assess the interventions needed to control malaria in an endemic setting. To achieve this, we formulate a malaria transmission model to analyse the spread of malaria in the presence of interventions. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed to determine the relative impact of the model parameters on disease transmission. We explore how existing variations in the recruitment and management of intervention strategies affect malaria transmission. Results obtained from the study imply that the discontinuation of existing interventions has a significant effect on malaria prevalence. Thus, the maintenance of interventions is imperative for malaria elimination and eradication. In a scenario study aimed at assessing the impact of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and localized individual measures, our findings indicate that increased LLINs utilization and extended IRS coverage (with longer-lasting insecticides) cause a more pronounced reduction in symptomatic malaria prevalence compared to a reduced LLINs utilization and shorter IRS coverage. Additionally, our study demonstrates the impact of localized preventive measures in mitigating the spread of malaria when compared to the absence of interventions.

A hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian model for vector-borne diseases.

In this paper, a multi-patch and multi-group vector-borne disease model is proposed to study the effects of host commuting (Lagrangian approach) and/or vector migration (Eulerian approach) on disease spread. We first define the basic reproduction number of the model, R 0 , which completely determines the global dynamics of the model system. Namely, if R 0 ≤ 1 , then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R 0 > 1 , then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. Then, we show that the basic reproduction number has lower and upper bounds which are independent of the host residence times matrix and the vector migration matrix. In particular, nonhomogeneous mixing of hosts and vectors in a homogeneous environment generally increases disease persistence and the basic reproduction number of the model attains its minimum when the distributions of hosts and vectors are proportional. Moreover, R 0 can also be estimated by the basic reproduction numbers of disconnected patches if the environment is homogeneous. The optimal vector control strategy is obtained for a special scenario. In the two-patch and two-group case, we numerically analyze the dependence of the basic reproduction number and the total number of infected people on the host residence times matrix and illustrate the optimal vector control strategy in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments.

Optimal Control of Collective Electrotaxis in Epithelial Monolayers.

Epithelial monolayers are some of the best-studied models for collective cell migration due to their abundance in multicellular systems and their tractability. Experimentally, the collective migration of epithelial monolayers can be robustly steered e.g. using electric fields, via a process termed electrotaxis. Theoretically, however, the question of how to design an electric field to achieve a desired spatiotemporal movement pattern is underexplored. In this work, we construct and calibrate an ordinary differential equation model to predict the average velocity of the centre of mass of a cellular monolayer in response to stimulation with an electric field. We use this model, in conjunction with optimal control theory, to derive physically realistic optimal electric field designs to achieve a variety of aims, including maximising the total distance travelled by the monolayer, maximising the monolayer velocity, and keeping the monolayer velocity constant during stimulation. Together, this work is the first to present a unified framework for optimal control of collective monolayer electrotaxis and provides a blueprint to optimally steer collective migration using other external cues.

A Model for the Coexistence of Competing Mechanisms for Ca 2 + Oscillations in T-lymphocytes.

Ca 2 + is a ubiquitous signaling mechanism across different cell types. In T-cells, it is associated with cytokine production and immune function. Benson et al. have shown the coexistence of competing Ca 2 + oscillations during antigen stimulation of T-cell receptors, depending on the presence of extracellular Ca 2 + influx through the Ca 2 + release-activated Ca 2 + channel (Benson in J Biol Chem 29:105310, 2023). In this paper, we construct a mathematical model consisting of five ordinary differential equations and analyze the relationship between the competing oscillatory mechanisms.. We perform bifurcation analysis on two versions of our model, corresponding to the two oscillatory types, to find the defining characteristics of these two families.

Oscillations in Neuronal Activity: A Neuron-Centered Spatiotemporal Model of the Unfolded Protein Response in Prion Diseases.

Many neurodegenerative diseases (NDs) are characterized by the slow spatial spread of toxic protein species in the brain. The toxic proteins can induce neuronal stress, triggering the Unfolded Protein Response (UPR), which slows or stops protein translation and can indirectly reduce the toxic load. However, the UPR may also trigger processes leading to apoptotic cell death and the UPR is implicated in the progression of several NDs. In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical model to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of the UPR mechanism for prion diseases. Our model is centered around a single neuron, with representative proteins P (healthy) and S (toxic) interacting with heterodimer dynamics (S interacts with P to form two S's). The model takes the form of a coupled system of nonlinear reaction-diffusion equations with a delayed, nonlinear flux for P (delay from the UPR). Through the delay, we find parameter regimes that exhibit oscillations in the P- and S-protein levels. We find that oscillations are more pronounced when the S-clearance rate and S-diffusivity are small in comparison to the P-clearance rate and P-diffusivity, respectively. The oscillations become more pronounced as delays in initiating the UPR increase. We also consider quasi-realistic clinical parameters to understand how possible drug therapies can alter the course of a prion disease. We find that decreasing the production of P, decreasing the recruitment rate, increasing the diffusivity of S, increasing the UPR S-threshold, and increasing the S clearance rate appear to be the most powerful modifications to reduce the mean UPR intensity and potentially moderate the disease progression.

A Computational Framework for the Administration of 5-Aminovulinic Acid Before Glioblastoma Surgery.

5-Aminolevulinic Acid (5-ALA) is the only fluorophore approved by the FDA as an intraoperative optical imaging agent for fluorescence-guided surgery in patients with glioblastoma. The dosing regimen is based on rodent tests where a maximum signal occurs around 6 h after drug administration. Here, we construct a computational framework to simulate the transport of 5-ALA through the stomach, blood, and brain, and the subsequent conversion to the fluorescent agent protoporphyrin IX at the tumor site. The framework combines compartmental models with spatially-resolved partial differential equations, enabling one to address questions regarding quantity and timing of 5-ALA administration before surgery. Numerical tests in two spatial dimensions indicate that, for tumors exceeding the detection threshold, the time to peak fluorescent concentration is 2-7 h, broadly consistent with the current surgical guidelines. Moreover, the framework enables one to examine the specific effects of tumor size and location on the required dose and timing of 5-ALA administration before glioblastoma surgery.

Homeostasis in networks with multiple inputs.

Homeostasis, also known as adaptation, refers to the ability of a system to counteract persistent external disturbances and tightly control the output of a key observable. Existing studies on homeostasis in network dynamics have mainly focused on 'perfect adaptation' in deterministic single-input single-output networks where the disturbances are scalar and affect the network dynamics via a pre-specified input node. In this paper we provide a full classification of all possible network topologies capable of generating infinitesimal homeostasis in arbitrarily large and complex multiple inputs networks. Working in the framework of 'infinitesimal homeostasis' allows us to make no assumption about how the components are interconnected and the functional form of the associated differential equations, apart from being compatible with the network architecture. Remarkably, we show that there are just three distinct 'mechanisms' that generate infinitesimal homeostasis. Each of these three mechanisms generates a rich class of well-defined network topologies-called homeostasis subnetworks. More importantly, we show that these classes of homeostasis subnetworks provides a topological basis for the classification of 'homeostasis types': the full set of all possible multiple inputs networks can be uniquely decomposed into these special homeostasis subnetworks. We illustrate our results with some simple abstract examples and a biologically realistic model for the co-regulation of calcium ( Ca ) and phosphate ( PO 4 ) in the rat. Furthermore, we identify a new phenomenon that occurs in the multiple input setting, that we call homeostasis mode interaction, in analogy with the well-known characteristic of multiparameter bifurcation theory.