COVID-19 and the value of safe transport in the United States.

We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data highlights important connections between population density and mobility, public transportation use, race, and increased likelihood of transmission. We use a transportation model to highlight the effect of uncertainty about transmission on the commuters' choice of transportation means. Using multiple estimation techniques, we found strong evidence that public transit ridership in several US metro areas has been considerably impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic. Concerns about disease transmission had a negative effect on ridership, which is over and above the adverse effect from the observed reduction in employment. The COVID-19 effect is likely to reduce the demand for public transport in favor of lower density alternatives. This change relative to the status quo will have implications for fuel use, congestion, accident frequency, and air quality. More vulnerable communities might be disproportionally affected as a result. We point to the need for additional studies to further quantify these effects and to assist policy in planning for the post-COVID-19 transportation future.

Research on the spatial association network structure for innovation efficiency of China's new energy vehicle industry and its influencing factors.

It is of great significance to study the spatial network of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry innovation efficiency and its factors to promote the rational allocation of innovative resources and the coordinated development of Chinese NEV industry. First, the Super Efficiency Data Envelope Analysis model is used to measure innovation efficiency in the NEV industry in Chinese provinces, and based on the results, the improved gravity model is applied to construct a spatial correlation network. Then, by applying social network analysis (SNA) to study NEV industry development node spatial correlations, we conclude that there is no overall hierarchical structure. The SNA are applied to examine spatial correlations with respect to NEV industry innovation efficiency in each province, and to analyze the role and position of each province in the spatial correlation network. Finally, the influencing factors of spatial correlation of the innovation efficiency of China's NEV industry has been discussed. The result shows that the difference in spatial distance and R&D investment has a significant impact on the spatial correlation of the NEV industry.

A novel bi-objective model of cold chain logistics considering location-routing decision and environmental effects.

Economic, environmental, and social effects are the most dominating issues in cold chain logistics. The goal of this paper is to propose a cost-saving, energy-saving, and emission-reducing bi-objective model for the cold chain-based low-carbon location-routing problem. In the proposed model, the first objective (economic and environmental effects) is to minimize the total logistics costs consisting of costs of depots to open, renting vehicles, fuel consumption, and carbon emission, and the second one (social effect) is to reduce the damage of cargos, which could improve the client satisfaction. In the proposed model, a strategy is developed to meet the requirements of clients as to the demands on the types of cargos, that is, general cargos, refrigerated cargos, and frozen cargos. Since the proposed problem is NP-hard, we proposed a simple and efficient framework combining seven well-known multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs). Furthermore, in the experiments, we first examined the effectiveness of the proposed framework by assessing the performance of seven MOEAs, and also verified the efficiency of the proposed model. Extensive experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of the proposed strategy and variants on depot capacity, hard time windows, and fleet composition on the performance indicators of Pareto fronts and cold chain logistics networks, such as fuel consumption, carbon emission, travel distance, travel time, and the total waiting time of vehicles.

Using social return on investment analysis to calculate the social impact of modified vehicles for people with disability.

INTRODUCTION: Returning to driving is often a goal for people with acquired disabilities. Vehicle modifications make it possible for people with both acquired and lifelong disabilities to drive yet can be costly. There has been no financial evaluation of vehicle modifications in Australia or internationally. METHODS: A social return on investment analysis of vehicle modifications was undertaken. Primary data were collected via qualitative interviews with consumers and other stakeholders (e.g. driver-trained occupational therapists, rehabilitation physicians, driving instructors, vehicle modifiers) (n = 23). Secondary data were collected from literature searches and used to identify suitable financial proxies and make estimations of the proportion of drivers with vehicle modifications experiencing each outcome. A co-investment model was adopted to estimate social return on investment and payback period for funder and consumer. Five scenarios were developed to illustrate social return for low-cost modifications (Scenario 1) through to high-cost modifications (Scenario 5). RESULTS: Social return on investment ratios was positive for funder and consumer investment in all five scenarios. Social return on investment calculations based on co-investment ranged from $17.32 for every $1 invested (Scenario 1) to $2.78 for every $1 invested (Scenario 5). Consumers' payback periods were between 5.4 and 7.1 months, and funders between 3.5 weeks and 2 years 8.4 months. CONCLUSION: Vehicle modifications represent sound investments for both funders and consumers. Given the short payback periods, funders should reconsider age restrictions on vehicles considered suitable for modifications, especially for low- to medium-cost modifications.

Assessment of the transport management systems for National Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Council of Zimbabwe Global Fund Round 8 grant sub-recipients and implementing partners, 2014.

INTRODUCTION: during a Global Fund sub-sub recipients (SSRs) and implementing partners (IPs) review meeting for quarter 14 held in September 2013, several reports on mismanagement of vehicles were reported. We were then prompted to assess the transport management systems for the SSRs and IPs. METHODS: we conducted a descriptive cross-sectional study. The study participants were managers, drivers and other personnel involved in transport management. We also assessed the conditions of the vehicles. Data were collected using a questionnaire and checklist. RESULTS: we interviewed ten participants, seven from the IPs and three from the SSRs. Understanding and knowledge on the contents of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) which accompanied the vehicles were low. Six out of the ten organisations had operational vehicle policies but had shallow content. Eighteen (18) vehicles were assessed, 16 runners and two non-runners. Fifteen (15/18) of the vehicles did not have valid Zimbabwe National Authority for Road Administration (ZINARA) license discs. Only one (1/18) vehicle had a valid Zimbabwe Broadcasting Cooperation (ZBC) license disc. Of the 18 vehicles, 12 were insured with comprehensive insurance cover. Seven (7/18) of the vehicles were once involved in an accident. All the vehicles were serviced on a quarterly basis. Six (6/18) vehicles had both records of monthly service expenses and fuel returns. All the vehicles had logbooks, but only 8/18 of them were carbonated. Some sections of logbooks were incomplete. CONCLUSION: the transport management systems for the IPs and SSRs were below standard. We recommended the training and capacity building of IPs and SSRs in transport management.

A hybrid neural network for large-scale expressway network OD prediction based on toll data.

Accurate Origin-Destination (OD) prediction is significant for effective traffic monitor, which can support operation decision in traffic planning and management field. The enclosed expressway network system like toll gates system in China can collect mounts of trip records which can be gathered for OD prediction. The paper develops a novel neural network, which is named Expressway OD Prediction Neural Network (EODPNN) for toll data-based prediction. The network consists of the following three modules: The Feature Extension Module, the Memory Module, and the Prediction Module. In the process, the attributes data which can reflect the city attribute such as GDP, population, and the number of vehicles are considered to embeded into the notwork to increase the accuracy of the model. For the applicability improvment of the model, we categorize the cities in multiple classes based on their economy and population scales in this paper, which can provide a higher accurate prediction of OD by EODPNN. The results shows that, comparing to the traditional model like ARIMA and SVM, or typical neural networks like Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory, the EODPNN delivers a better prediction performance. The method proposed in this paper has been fully verified and has a potential to transplant to the other OD data-based management systems for a more accurate and flexible prediction.

A low cost solar powered vehicle - a boon for physically challenged persons.

This paper presents a low cost solar powered vehicle for physically challenged persons. Generally, the persons with physical disabilities restrict their movement within a house or building due to their dependence on other people for their outdoor work. The disabled people use their limbs to drive the wheelchairs which physically stress them. There are electrical wheelchairs which are operated by hands, by mouth or any other functioning body part. The high cost and its limitation for outdoor environment restrict its usage for rich people and hospitals. This often makes the poor disabled person to be unemployed and depend on others for their daily life. In this regard, developing a low cost self-driven electric wheel chair can improve the life of the person. This paper presents a low cost vehicle for physically challenged people that can be used as a mobile shop to sell products at any place independently. The self-driven vehicle motivates the persons to become an entrepreneur. A cost effective and user friendly prototype has been developed for the benefit the poor disabled people and the cost analysis is presented. The purpose of developing the vehicle is satisfied as they no longer depend on others for their living. Implications for rehabilitation The movement of physically challenged persons is often restricted within a building due to their dependence on other people for their outdoor work. The high cost of the assist vehicles and the difficulty encountered in using the vehicles in outdoor environment decreases their standard of living. The developed low cost vehicle can be used by physically challenged people as a mobile shop to sell products at any place independently. The self-driven vehicle motivates the physically challenged persons to become an entrepreneur.

Rollover Protective Structures, Worker Safety, and Cost-Effectiveness: New York, 2011-2017.

OBJECTIVES: To measure cost-effectiveness of an intervention to increase retrofitting of rollover protective structures (ROPS) on tractors. METHODS: Tractor overturns are the leading cause of farm fatalities. ROPS prevent these deaths. This study updates a 2011 cost-effectiveness assessment of a New York State intervention to increase use of ROPS. We subtracted intervention cost from the cost of injuries averted, then divided this figure by the number of averted injuries. We used related probabilities and costs of fatalities and injuries from published literature to calculate the program's cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The total cost of the injuries averted from 2007 to 2017 was $6 018 742 versus a total program cost of $1 776 608. The one-time retrofit costs will continue to prevent injuries as long as the tractors are used, generating additional (projected) future savings of $12 136 512, $15 781 027, and $18 924 818 if retrofitted tractors remain in operation 15, 20, or 25 years after their retrofit. CONCLUSIONS: Social marketing was cost-effective for reducing injuries from tractor overturns. Public Health Implications. These results indicate that the intervention model is effective from both a public health and economic standpoint and should be expanded into other states.

Do the benefits outweigh the costs? Societal benefit-cost analysis of three large truck safety technologies.

Although research has found advanced safety technologies to be effective at preventing large truck crashes, limited empirical data exists regarding their cost effectiveness to the U.S. society. Without these data, carriers are hesitant to adopt costly technologies and government agencies are hesitant to create regulation mandating their use. The objective of this study was to provide scientifically-based estimates of the societal benefits and costs of large truck automatic emergency braking (AEB), lane departure warning (LDW), and video-based onboard safety monitoring (OSM). For each technology, benefit-cost analyses were performed for installing the technology on all large trucks (including retrofitting existing trucks) and for equipping new large trucks only. Sensitivity analyses examined three cost estimates (low, average, high; values technology-specific), two estimates of system efficacy (low and high; values technology-specific), and three discount rates (0%, 3%, 7%) for each technology. Equipping trucks with LDW and video-based OSM systems were found to be cost effective for all combinations of costs, efficacy, and discount rates examined, for both new and existing trucks. Results for AEB and were mixed. Only a $500 AEB system was cost effective when equipping new trucks and retrofitting existing trucks. However, all cost estimates were cost effective with a 28% efficacy rate when only equipping new large trucks. Overall, these data suggested all three technologies can be cost-effective for new large trucks provided the current costs and efficacy rates can be maintained or improved upon.

Optimal public-transport operational strategies to reduce cost and vehicle's emission.

Public transport passenger demand is inevitably made non-uniform because of spatial and temporal land use planning. This non-uniformity warrants the use of public transport operational strategies to attain operating efficiency. The optimization of these strategies is commonly being done from the operator perspective, and indirectly from the user perspective. However, the environmental perspective of these strategies, in terms of vehicle's emission, has not been investigated. This study proposed a methodology to analyze the benefits of using transit operational strategies to reduce operating cost and eventually also to reduce undesirable emissions. First, a strategy-based optimization model is established to minimize the number of transit vehicles required. Four candidate operational strategies are considered in this model, including full route operation (FRO), short turn, limited stop, and a combination of limited stop and short turn. Second, the pollutant emissions of transit vehicles are estimated by the MOVES emission model. The developed methodology is applied to a real life case study in Dalian, China. Results show that the use of operational strategies can not only significantly save the number of vehicles by 12.5%, but also reduce emissions of pollutants (i.e., CO2, HC, CO, NOx, PM2.5) by approximately 13%, compared with applying FRO strategy exclusively. In addition, both benefits can be further enhanced through the use of an efficient payment mode (e.g., off-board or contactless card) or improving bus performance in deceleration/acceleration as well as doors opening and closing at a stop.

Electric bicycle cost calculation models and analysis based on the social perspective in China.

Electric bicycles (EBs) are increasingly popular around the world. In April 2014, EB ownership in China reached 181 million. While some aspects of the impact of EBs have been studied, most of the literature analyzing the cost of EBs has been conducted from the buyer's point of view and the perspective of social cost has not been covered, which is therefore the focus of this paper. From the consumer's point of view, only the costs paid from purchase until retirement are included in the cost of EBs, i.e., the EB acquisition cost, battery replacement cost, charging cost, and repair and maintenance cost are included. Considered from the perspective of the social cost (including impact on the environment), costs that are not paid directly by consumers should also be included in the cost of EBs, i.e., the lead-acid battery scrap processing cost, the cost of pollution caused by wastewater, and the traffic-related costs. Data are obtained from secondary sources and surveys, and calculations demonstrate that in the life cycle of an EB, the consumer cost is 6386.2 CNY, the social cost is 10,771.2 CNY, and the ratio of consumer to social cost is 1:1.69. By comparison, the ratio for motor vehicles is 1:1.06, so that the share of the life cycle cost of EBs that is not borne by the consumer is much higher than that for motor vehicles, which needs to be addressed.

Route optimization as an instrument to improve animal welfare and economics in pre-slaughter logistics.

Each year, more than three million animals are transported from farms to abattoirs in Sweden. Animal transport is related to economic and environmental costs and a negative impact on animal welfare. Time and the number of pick-up stops between farms and abattoirs are two key parameters for animal welfare. Both are highly dependent on efficient and qualitative transportation planning, which may be difficult if done manually. We have examined the benefits of using route optimization in cattle transportation planning. To simulate the effects of various planning time windows and transportation time regulations and number of pick-up stops along each route, we have used data that represent one year of cattle transport. Our optimization model is a development of a model used in forestry transport that solves a general pick-up and delivery vehicle routing problem. The objective is to minimize transportation costs. We have shown that the length of the planning time window has a significant impact on the animal transport time, the total driving time and the total distance driven; these parameters that will not only affect animal welfare but also affect the economy and environment in the pre-slaughter logistic chain. In addition, we have shown that changes in animal transportation regulations, such as minimizing the number of allowed pick-up stops on each route or minimizing animal transportation time, will have positive effects on animal welfare measured in transportation hours and number of pick-up stops. However, this leads to an increase in working time and driven distances, leading to higher transportation costs for the transport and negative environmental impact.

Optimizing a desirable fare structure for a bus-subway corridor.

This paper aims to optimize a desirable fare structure for the public transit service along a bus-subway corridor with the consideration of those factors related to equity in trip, including travel distance and comfort level. The travel distance factor is represented by the distance-based fare strategy, which is an existing differential strategy. The comfort level one is considered in the area-based fare strategy which is a new differential strategy defined in this paper. Both factors are referred to by the combined fare strategy which is composed of distance-based and area-based fare strategies. The flat fare strategy is applied to determine a reference level of social welfare and obtain the general passenger flow along transit lines, which is used to divide areas or zones along the corridor. This problem is formulated as a bi-level program, of which the upper level maximizes the social welfare and the lower level capturing traveler choice behavior is a variable-demand stochastic user equilibrium assignment model. A genetic algorithm is applied to solve the bi-level program while the method of successive averages is adopted to solve the lower-level model. A series of numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the performance of the models and solution methods. Numerical results indicate that all three differential fare strategies play a better role in enhancing the social welfare than the flat fare strategy and that the fare structure under the combined fare strategy generates the highest social welfare and the largest resulting passenger demand, which implies that the more equity factors a differential fare strategy involves the more desirable fare structure the strategy has.

Benefit-cost analysis of lane departure warning and roll stability control in commercial vehicles.

INTRODUCTION: This paper presents the cost benefits of two different onboard safety systems (OSS) installed on trucks as they operated during normal revenue deliveries. Using a formal economic analysis approach, the study quantified the costs and benefits associated with lane departure warning (LDW) systems and roll stability control (RSC) systems. METHODS: The study used data collected from participating carriers (many of these crashes were not reported to state or Federal agencies), and the research team also reviewed each crash file to determine if the specific OSS would have mitigated or prevented the crash. The deployment of each OSS was anticipated to increase the safety of all road users, but impact different sectors of society in different ways. Benefits that were inherent in each group (e.g., industry, society) were considered, and different benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) were performed. RESULTS: This paper presents two BCAs: a BCA focused on the costs and benefits in the carrier industry by implementing each OSS, and a BCA that measured the societal benefits of each OSS. In addition, a BCA for a theoretical mandatory deployment option for each OSS is presented. CONCLUSIONS: BCA results for LDW and RSC clearly showed their benefits outweighed their costs for the carrier and society. Practical applications: Cost information is a crucial factor in purchasing decisions in carriers; similarly, regulators must consider the cost burden prior to mandating technologies. The results in this study provide carrier decision makers and regulators with information necessary to make an informed decision regarding RSC and LDW.

Compliance by Design: Influence of Acceleration Trade-offs on CO2 Emissions and Costs of Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Regulations.

The ability of automakers to improve the fuel economy of vehicles using engineering design modifications that compromise other performance attributes, such as acceleration, is not currently considered when setting fuel economy and greenhouse-gas emission standards for passenger cars and light trucks. We examine the role of these design trade-offs by simulating automaker responses to recently reformed vehicle standards with and without the ability to adjust acceleration performance. Results indicate that acceleration trade-offs can be important in two respects: (1) they can reduce the compliance costs of the standards, and (2) they can significantly reduce emissions associated with a particular level of the standards by mitigating incentives to shift sales toward larger vehicles and light trucks relative to passenger cars. We contrast simulation-based results with observed changes in vehicle attributes under the reformed standards. We find evidence that is consistent with firms using acceleration trade-offs to achieve compliance. Taken together, our analysis suggests that acceleration trade-offs play a role in automaker compliance strategies with potentially large implications for both compliance costs and emissions.

A free ride? An analysis of the association of casino bus tours and problem gambling among older adults.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little research has examined the relationship between incentives used by gambling venues to attract customers and the experience of gambling-related harm. Organized and subsidized bus tours are a common example of such incentives. The aim of this study was to examine whether bus-tour patronage was associated with increased odds of problem gambling among older adults. This study also compared rates of bus-tour use by socio-demographic characteristics and gambling behaviours. DESIGN: Pearson's χ2 tests and Mann-Whitney U-tests were applied for bivariate analyses. Multivariate generalized mixed-effects regression modelling was used to examine the relationship between bus-tour patronage and problem gambling while controlling for possible confounding factors. SETTING: Seven gambling venues located in Central and Southwestern Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1978 gambling venue patrons over the age of 55 years. MEASUREMENTS: Problem gambling as indicated by the Problem Gambling Severity Index, bus-tour patronage in the 12 months prior to the survey, spending per gambling visit and past-month slot machine participation. FINDINGS: Regression analyses showed that bus-tour patronage was associated with higher odds of problem gambling [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71, confidence interval (CI) = 1.06, 2.76] after controlling for several demographic characteristics, type of gambling and gambling expenditures. Bivariate analyses showed past-year bus-tour patronage was associated with more frequent slot machine play (χ2 = 48.16, P < 0.001), more past-year gambling venue visits (P < 0.001) and lower spending on gambling per casino visit (P < 0.001). Compared with non-patrons, bus tour patrons were more likely to be female (χ2 = 21.92, P < 0.001), born outside Canada (χ2 = 113.18, P < 0.001), above the age of 75 (χ2 = 24.02, P < 0.001) and retired (χ2 = 16.60, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: When adjusting for potential confounders among older adults, using bus tours to access Canadian gambling venues is associated with increased risk of problem gambling. Bus-tour patrons are more likely to be female, born outside Canada and above the age of 75 years.

Optimal bus temperature for thermal comfort during a cool day.

A challenge for electric buses is to minimize heating and cooling power to maximally extend the driving range, but still provide sufficient thermal comfort for the driver and passengers. Therefore, we investigated the thermal sensation (TS) and thermal comfort (TC) of passengers in buses during a cool day (temperature 13.4 ± 0.5 °C, relative humidity (RH) 60 ± 5.8%) typical for the Dutch temperate maritime climate. 28 Males and 72 females rated TS and TC and gave information on age, stature, body weight and worn garments. The temperature in the bus of 22.5 ± 1.1 °C and RH of 59.9 ± 5.8% corresponded to a slightly warm feeling (TS = 0.85 ± 1.06) and TC of 0.39 ± 0.65. TS related significantly to bus temperature, clothing insulation and age. Linear regression based on these parameters showed that the temperature in the bus corresponding to TC = 0 and TS = 0 would have been 20.9 ± 0.6 °C. In conclusion, a 1.6 °C lower bus temperature during the investigated cool day probably would have led to less thermal discomfort and energy savings of electrical busses. The methodology to relate climatic measurements to subjective assessments is currently employed in a wider climatic range and may prove to be useful to find a better balance between thermal comfort and energy savings of the bus.