Prevalence and perceptions of flavour capsule cigarettes among adults who smoke in Brazil, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Mexico: findings from the ITC surveys.

INTRODUCTION: The global market of flavour capsule cigarettes (FCCs) has grown significantly over the past decade; however, prevalence data exist for only a few countries. This study examined prevalence and perceptions of FCCs among adults who smoke across five countries. METHODS: Cross-sectional data among adults who smoked cigarettes came from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Surveys-Brazil (2016/2017), Japan (2021), Republic of Korea (2021), Malaysia (2020) and Mexico (2021). FCCs use was measured based on reporting one's usual/current brand or favourite variety has flavour capsule(s). Perceptions of the harmfulness of one's usual brand versus other brands were compared between those who used capsules versus no capsules. Adjusted logistic regression models examined correlates of FCC use. RESULTS: There were substantial differences in the prevalence of FCC use among adults who smoke across the five countries: Mexico (50.3% in 2021), Republic of Korea (31.8% in 2021), Malaysia (26.5% in 2020), Japan (21.6% in 2021) and Brazil (6.7% in 2016/2017). Correlates of FCC use varied across countries. Capsule use was positively associated with being female in Japan and Mexico, younger age in Japan, Republic of Korea and Malaysia, high education in Brazil, Japan and Mexico, non-daily smoking in Republic of Korea, and having plans to quit in Japan and Republic of Korea. There was no consistent pattern of consumer perceptions of brand harmfulness. CONCLUSION: Our study documented the high prevalence of FCCs in some countries, pointing to the need to develop and implement regulatory strategies to control these attractive products.

The impact of containment policy and mobility on COVID-19 cases through structural equation model in Chile, Singapore, South Korea and Israel.

Objectives: The study aims to understand the impact of containment policy and mobility on COVID-19 cases in Chile, Singapore, South Korea and Israel. To provide experience in epidemic prevention and control. Methods: Structural equation modeling (SEM) of containment policies, mobility, and COVID-19 cases were used to test and analyze the proposed hypotheses. Results: Chile, Israel and Singapore adopted containment strategies, focusing on closure measures. South Korea adopted a mitigation strategy with fewer closure measures, focusing on vaccination and severe case management. There was a significant negative relationship among containment policies, mobility, and COVID-19 cases. Conclusion: To control the COVID-19 and slow down the increase of COVID-19 cases, countries can increase the stringency of containment policies when COVID-19 epidemic is more severe. Thus, countries can take measures from the following three aspects: strengthen the risk monitoring, and keep abreast of the COVID-19 risk; adjust closure measures in time and reduce mobility; and strengthen public education on COVID-19 prevention to motivate citizen to consciously adhere to preventive measures.

Prevalence of liver cirrhosis based on the metabolic health and weight criteria: Report from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Recent studies have proposed two distinctive types of obesity, metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUHO), based on various physiological factors. This study sought to explore the relationship between the metabolic obesity types and the incidence of liver cirrhosis (LC) in a large nationally-representative population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on 27,629 adults with MHO or MUHO, were analyzed from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) obtained from 2015 through 2019. Four categories of metabolic health and weight (MHW) were generated for analysis: (1) MHO, (2) MUHO, (3) Metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUHNW), and (4) Metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW). Statistical analyzes were performed with univariate and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of LC did not show statistically significant differences among the MHW categories: 0.5% in MHO, 0.4% in MUHO, 0.2% in MHNW, and 0.3% in MUHNW. The unadjusted analysis showed a significant association between self-reported LC and MUHO, but this association was not evident in the adjusted analysis. In the adjusted analysis of the prevalence of laboratory LC, a significant association emerged in the MUHO group, followed in descending order of magnitude by the MHO and MUHNW groups. A favorable fasting blood glucose level was the only factor associated with increased prevalence of reported LC in MUHO. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated a difference in the prevalence of LC between MHO and MUHO. Our study concludes that the MHO phenotype is a transient status with regard to metabolic abnormalities, and caution is necessary when evaluating MHO.

Weekend catch-up sleep is associated with the alleviation of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Recently, interest in the relationship between weekend catch-up sleep (WCUS) and chronic diseases is increasing. We aimed to study the correlation between sleep duration and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), an emerging metabolic disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on sleep duration from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey was recorded. The subjects were divided into three groups according to the duration of WCUS: Group 1, those who slept for less than 7 hours in a week; Group 2, those who slept for less than 7 hours on weekdays but more than 7 hours on weekends (those with WCUS pattern); and Group 3, those who slept for more than 7 hours in a week. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the correlation between sleep duration and NAFLD. RESULTS: A mean sleep time of 7 hours or more showed a significant negative relationship with NAFLD (odds ratio [OR]: 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.89 in all; OR 0.91, 95%CI 0.84-0.99 in males; OR 0.86, 95%CI 0.79-0.94 in females). Groups 2 and 3 showed significant negative relationships with NAFLD when Group 1 was used as a reference (Group 2; OR: 0.80, 95%CI: 0.70-0.92, Group 3; OR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.66-0.82). WCUS showed similar correlations with NAFLD, regardless of sex. CONCLUSIONS: WCUS and sleep duration are significantly associated with NAFLD. A prospective cohort study is needed to prove the causal effects.

The response by South Korea to the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned and recommendations for policymakers. / A resposta da Coreia do Sul à pandemia de COVID-19: lições aprendidas e recomendações a gestores.

The studies published on the South Korean response to COVID-19 point to different reasons for the country's success. No reviews were identified on South Korea from January 2020 to April 2021 or that analyzed the pandemic's recrudescence. Aimed at better systematization of South Korea's success in controlling the epidemic, we conducted an integrative review to analyze that country´s experience with the COVID-19 pandemic, seeking to identify the relationship between the measures adopted, the health system's characteristics, and evolution of the selected indicators. Various databases were used, beside epidemiological bulletins and press conferences of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). We also analyzed reports by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. The study's results allow identifying a set of lessons based on the South Korean experience with control and management of the disease. The response by South Korea was successful, due to action in the control of risks and harms, action on social determinants to mitigate the socioeconomic effects of the health crisis, prior experience with other respiratory disease epidemics, and effective national coordination.

Os estudos publicados sobre a resposta da Coreia do Sul à COVID-19 apontam para distintos motivos para seu êxito. Não foram identificadas revisões sobre a Coreia do Sul entre janeiro de 2020 e abril de 2021 ou que analisassem o recrudescimento da pandemia. Visando melhor sistematização sobre o seu sucesso no controle da epidemia, desenvolveu-se uma revisão integrativa para analisar a experiência daquele país no enfrentamento da pandemia de COVID-19, buscando identificar a relação entre as medidas adotadas, as características do sistema de saúde e a evolução de indicadores selecionados. Utilizaram-se distintas bases de dados, além dos boletins epidemiológicos e conferências de imprensa do Centro Sul-coreano de Prevenção e Controle de Doenças (KCDC). Adicionalmente, analisaram-se relatórios da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), do Observatório Europeu de Políticas e Sistemas de Saúde. Os resultados do presente estudo permitem identificar um conjunto de lições com base na experiência sul-coreana visando o controle e manejo da doença. A resposta da Coreia do Sul foi bem-sucedida devido às ações no controle de riscos e danos, atuação sobre determinantes sociais para mitigar os efeitos socioeconômicos da crise sanitária, a experiência prévia em outras epidemias respiratórias e a coordenação nacional expressiva.

Los estudios publicados sobre la respuesta de Corea del Sur a la COVID-19 apuntan distintos motivos para su éxito. No se identificaron revisiones sobre Corea del Sur entre enero de 2020 y abril de 2021 o que analizaran el recrudecimiento de la pandemia. Con el fin de una mejor sistematización sobre el éxito en el control de la epidemia, se desarrolló una revisión integradora para analizar la experiencia de aquel país en el combate de la pandemia de COVID-19, buscando identificar la relación entre las medidas adoptadas, las características del sistema de salud y la evolución de indicadores seleccionados. Se utilizaron distintas bases de datos, además de los boletines epidemiológicos y conferencias de prensa del Centro Surcoreano para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades (KCDC). Asimismo, se analizaron informes de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y del Observatorio Europeo de Políticas y Sistemas Sanitarios. Los resultados del presente estudio permiten identificar un conjunto de lecciones, basadas en la experiencia surcoreana, con el fin del control y manejo de la enfermedad. La respuesta de Corea del Sur fue exitosa, debido a las acciones en el control de riesgos y daños, actuación sobre determinantes sociales para mitigar los efectos socioeconómicos de la crisis sanitaria, así como su experiencia previa en otras epidemias respiratorias y su significativa coordinación nacional.

A resposta da Coreia do Sul à pandemia de COVID-19: lições aprendidas e recomendações a gestores / La respuesta de Corea del Sur a la pandemia de COVID-19: lecciones aprendidas y recomendaciones a gestores / The response by South Korea to the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned and recommendations for policymakers

Resumo: Os estudos publicados sobre a resposta da Coreia do Sul à COVID-19 apontam para distintos motivos para seu êxito. Não foram identificadas revisões sobre a Coreia do Sul entre janeiro de 2020 e abril de 2021 ou que analisassem o recrudescimento da pandemia. Visando melhor sistematização sobre o seu sucesso no controle da epidemia, desenvolveu-se uma revisão integrativa para analisar a experiência daquele país no enfrentamento da pandemia de COVID-19, buscando identificar a relação entre as medidas adotadas, as características do sistema de saúde e a evolução de indicadores selecionados. Utilizaram-se distintas bases de dados, além dos boletins epidemiológicos e conferências de imprensa do Centro Sul-coreano de Prevenção e Controle de Doenças (KCDC). Adicionalmente, analisaram-se relatórios da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), do Observatório Europeu de Políticas e Sistemas de Saúde. Os resultados do presente estudo permitem identificar um conjunto de lições com base na experiência sul-coreana visando o controle e manejo da doença. A resposta da Coreia do Sul foi bem-sucedida devido às ações no controle de riscos e danos, atuação sobre determinantes sociais para mitigar os efeitos socioeconômicos da crise sanitária, a experiência prévia em outras epidemias respiratórias e a coordenação nacional expressiva.

Resumen: Los estudios publicados sobre la respuesta de Corea del Sur a la COVID-19 apuntan distintos motivos para su éxito. No se identificaron revisiones sobre Corea del Sur entre enero de 2020 y abril de 2021 o que analizaran el recrudecimiento de la pandemia. Con el fin de una mejor sistematización sobre el éxito en el control de la epidemia, se desarrolló una revisión integradora para analizar la experiencia de aquel país en el combate de la pandemia de COVID-19, buscando identificar la relación entre las medidas adoptadas, las características del sistema de salud y la evolución de indicadores seleccionados. Se utilizaron distintas bases de datos, además de los boletines epidemiológicos y conferencias de prensa del Centro Surcoreano para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades (KCDC). Asimismo, se analizaron informes de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y del Observatorio Europeo de Políticas y Sistemas Sanitarios. Los resultados del presente estudio permiten identificar un conjunto de lecciones, basadas en la experiencia surcoreana, con el fin del control y manejo de la enfermedad. La respuesta de Corea del Sur fue exitosa, debido a las acciones en el control de riesgos y daños, actuación sobre determinantes sociales para mitigar los efectos socioeconómicos de la crisis sanitaria, así como su experiencia previa en otras epidemias respiratorias y su significativa coordinación nacional.

Abstract: The studies published on the South Korean response to COVID-19 point to different reasons for the country's success. No reviews were identified on South Korea from January 2020 to April 2021 or that analyzed the pandemic's recrudescence. Aimed at better systematization of South Korea's success in controlling the epidemic, we conducted an integrative review to analyze that country´s experience with the COVID-19 pandemic, seeking to identify the relationship between the measures adopted, the health system's characteristics, and evolution of the selected indicators. Various databases were used, beside epidemiological bulletins and press conferences of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). We also analyzed reports by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies. The study's results allow identifying a set of lessons based on the South Korean experience with control and management of the disease. The response by South Korea was successful, due to action in the control of risks and harms, action on social determinants to mitigate the socioeconomic effects of the health crisis, prior experience with other respiratory disease epidemics, and effective national coordination.

Low-wage migrant workers during coronavirus disease 2019: a social determinants analysis.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic has had disproportionate effects on economically and socially marginalized people. We explore the effects on low-wage migrant workers (migrant workers) in three countries: Singapore, South Korea and Brazil, through the lens of the social determinants of health. Our analysis shows that governments missed key opportunities to mitigate pandemic risks for migrant workers. Government measures demonstrate potential for effective and sustainable policy reform, including universal and equitable access to healthcare, social safety nets and labour rights for migrant workers-key concerns of the Global Compact for Migration. A whole-of-society and a whole-of-government approach with Health in All Policies, and migrant worker frameworks developed by the World Health Organization could be instrumental. The current situation indicates a need to frame public health crisis responses and policies in ways that recognize social determinants as fundamental to health.

Trends of Dyslipidemia in Korean Youth According to Sex and Body Mass Index: Based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2018).

OBJECTIVE: To assess trends of dyslipidemia among youth, we investigated secular trends in serum lipid levels from 2007 to 2018 and the current prevalence of dyslipidemia in Korean children and adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: This cross-sectional study investigated lipid profiles of 10 734 youths aged 10-18 years using data from phases IV-VII of the Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. We assessed age-, sex-, and body mass index (BMI)-adjusted mean levels of lipids at each survey. RESULTS: Mean levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) levels increased from phase IV to VII. Among boys, the prevalence of acceptable levels of total cholesterol, LDL-C, and non-HDL-C decreased significantly (P = .005, P = .001, and P < .001, respectively). In girls, the prevalence of acceptable levels of total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and non-HDL-C decreased significantly (P = .003, P = .005, P = .008, and P = .013, respectively). In BMI- and age-specific analyses, worsening trends in total cholesterol, LDL-C, and non-HDL levels were more apparent in youths with a normal BMI and young age. CONCLUSIONS: Dyslipidemia trends are worsening in Korean youth, even in those with a normal BMI and young age. Thus, future cardiovascular disease risk may increase and comprehensive management plans are required for youth with overweight or obesity and those with a normal BMI and young age.

The Quixotic Task of Forecasting Peaks of COVID-19: Rather Focus on Forward and Backward Projections.

Over the last months, mathematical models have been extensively used to help control the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Although extremely useful in many tasks, most models have performed poorly in forecasting the pandemic peaks. We investigate this common pitfall by forecasting four countries' pandemic peak: Austria, Germany, Italy, and South Korea. Far from the peaks, our models can forecast the pandemic dynamics 20 days ahead. Nevertheless, when calibrating our models close to the day of the pandemic peak, all forecasts fail. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis revealed the main obstacle: the misestimation of the transmission rate. Inverse uncertainty quantification has shown that significant changes in transmission rate commonly precede a peak. These changes are a key factor in forecasting the pandemic peak. Long forecasts of the pandemic peak are therefore undermined by the lack of models that can forecast changes in the transmission rate, i.e., how a particular society behaves, changes of mitigation policies, or how society chooses to respond to them. In addition, our studies revealed that even short forecasts of the pandemic peak are challenging. Backward projections have shown us that the correct estimation of any temporal change in the transmission rate is only possible many days ahead. Our results suggest that the distance between a change in the transmission rate and its correct identification in the curve of active infected cases can be as long as 15 days. This is intrinsic to the phenomenon and how it affects epidemic data: a new case is usually only reported after an incubation period followed by a delay associated with the test. In summary, our results suggest the phenomenon itself challenges the task of forecasting the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when only epidemic data is available. Nevertheless, we show that exciting results can be obtained when using the same models to project different scenarios of reduced transmission rates. Therefore, our results highlight that mathematical modeling can help control COVID-19 pandemic by backward projections that characterize the phenomena' essential features and forward projections when different scenarios and strategies can be tested and used for decision-making.

The Impact of COVID-19 Management Policies Tailored to Airborne SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: Policy Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Daily new COVID-19 cases from January to April 2020 demonstrate varying patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different geographical regions. Constant infection rates were observed in some countries, whereas China and South Korea had a very low number of daily new cases. In fact, China and South Korea successfully and quickly flattened their COVID-19 curve. To understand why this was the case, this paper investigated possible aerosol-forming patterns in the atmosphere and their relationship to the policy measures adopted by select countries. OBJECTIVE: The main research objective was to compare the outcomes of policies adopted by countries between January and April 2020. Policies included physical distancing measures that in some cases were associated with mask use and city disinfection. We investigated whether the type of social distancing framework adopted by some countries (ie, without mask use and city disinfection) led to the continual dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 (daily new cases) in the community during the study period. METHODS: We examined the policies used as a preventive framework for virus community transmission in some countries and compared them to the policies adopted by China and South Korea. Countries that used a policy of social distancing by 1-2 m were divided into two groups. The first group consisted of countries that implemented social distancing (1-2 m) only, and the second comprised China and South Korea, which implemented distancing with additional transmission/isolation measures using masks and city disinfection. Global daily case maps from Johns Hopkins University were used to provide time-series data for the analysis. RESULTS: The results showed that virus transmission was reduced due to policies affecting SARS-CoV-2 propagation over time. Remarkably, China and South Korea obtained substantially better results than other countries at the beginning of the epidemic due to their adoption of social distancing (1-2 m) with the additional use of masks and sanitization (city disinfection). These measures proved to be effective due to the atmosphere carrier potential of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm that social distancing by 1-2 m with mask use and city disinfection yields positive outcomes. These strategies should be incorporated into prevention and control policies and be adopted both globally and by individuals as a method to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Temporal patterns of suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality are inversely correlated in several countries.

BACKGROUND: Nearly 800,000 suicides occur worldwide annually and suicide rates are increasing faster than population growth. Unfortunately, the pathophysiology of suicide remains poorly understood, which has hindered suicide prevention efforts. However, mechanistic clues may be found by studying effects of seasonality on suicide and other mortality causes. Suicides tend to peak in spring-summer periods and nadir in fall-winter periods while circulatory system disease-related mortality tends to exhibit the opposite temporal trends. This study aimed to determine for the first time whether monthly temporal cross-correlations exist between suicide and circulatory system disease-related mortality at the population level. If so and if common biological factors moderate risks for both mortality types, such factors may be discoverable and utilized to improve suicide prevention. METHODS: We conducted time series analyses of monthly mortality data from northern (England and Wales, South Korea, United States) and southern (Australia, Brazil) hemisphere countries during the period 2009-2018 (N = 41.8 million all-cause mortality cases). We used a Poisson regression variant of the standard cosinor model to determine peak months of mortality. We also estimated cross-correlations between monthly mortality counts from suicide and from circulatory system diseases. RESULTS: Suicide and circulatory disease-related mortality temporal patterns were negatively correlated in Australia (- 0.32), Brazil (- 0.57), South Korea (- 0.32), and in the United States (- 0.66), but no temporal correlation was discernable in England and Wales. CONCLUSIONS: The negative temporal cross-correlations between these mortality types we found in 4 of 5 countries studied suggest that seasonal factors broadly and inversely moderate risks for circulatory disease-related mortality and suicide, but not in all regions, indicating that the effect is not uniform. Since the seasonal factors of temperature and light exert opposite effects on suicide and circulatory disease-related mortality in several countries, we propose that physiologically-adaptive circulatory system responses to heat and light may increase risk for suicide and should be studied to determine whether they affect suicide risk. For example, heat and light increase production and release of the bioactive gas nitric oxide and reduce circulatory system disease by relaxing blood vessel tone, while elevated nitric oxide levels are associated with suicidal behavior, inverse effects that parallel the inverse temporal mortality patterns we detected.

Body mass index, performance on activities of daily living and cognition: analysis in two different populations.

BACKGROUND: With this study, we aim to determine the associations of the different categories of the body mass index (BMI) with activities of daily living (ADL) and cognitive performance in two different populations living in the community; Colombian and South Korean older adults. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of two surveys separately; The Survey on Health, Well-Being, and Aging in Colombia (SABE) (n = 23,343) and the Korean Longitudinal Study of aging (KLoSA) (n = 4556). Participants older than 50 years were selected from rural and urban areas achieving a representative sample. Here we investigated the association between BMI categories with function using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions, and with cognition using logistic regression models. RESULTS: After adjustment, in Colombia, underweight was associated with an impaired score on the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) and worse performance in the instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Also, being overweight was associated with a better score on the MMSE and the IADL. For both outcomes education level significantly influenced the predictions. In South Korea, there were no significant associations for cognition, IADL, or basic activities of daily living (BADL). CONCLUSIONS: In the Colombian population, underweight, was associated with reduced cognitive performance and daily functioning. Additionally, being overweight but not obese was associated with better cognition and daily functioning. In South Korea, there were no significant associations between BMI and cognition, IADL, or BADL.

Statistical methods for comparing test positivity rates between countries: Which method should be used and why?

The test positivity (TP) rate has emerged as an important metric for gauging the illness burden due to COVID-19. Given the importance of COVID-19 TP rates for understanding COVID-related morbidity, researchers and clinicians have become increasingly interested in comparing TP rates across countries. The statistical methods for performing such comparisons fall into two general categories: frequentist tests and Bayesian methods. Using data from Our World in Data (ourworldindata.org), we performed comparisons for two prototypical yet disparate pairs of countries: Bolivia versus the United States (large vs. small-to-moderate TP rates), and South Korea vs. Uruguay (two very small TP rates of similar magnitude). Three different statistical procedures were used: two frequentist tests (an asymptotic z-test and the 'N-1' chi-square test), and a Bayesian method for comparing two proportions (TP rates are proportions). Results indicated that for the case of large vs. small-to-moderate TP rates (Bolivia versus the United States), the frequentist and Bayesian approaches both indicated that the two rates were substantially different. When the TP rates were very small and of similar magnitude (values of 0.009 and 0.007 for South Korea and Uruguay, respectively), the frequentist tests indicated a highly significant contrast, despite the apparent trivial amount by which the two rates differ. The Bayesian method, in comparison, suggested that the TP rates were practically equivalent-a finding that seems more consistent with the observed data. When TP rates are highly similar in magnitude, frequentist tests can lead to erroneous interpretations. A Bayesian approach, on the other hand, can help ensure more accurate inferences and thereby avoid potential decision errors that could lead to costly public health and policy-related consequences.

Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet to enable first-hand accurate predictions of the pandemic evolution in urban areas.

COVID-19, the first pandemic of this decade and the second in less than 15 years, has harshly taught us that viral diseases do not recognize boundaries; however, they truly do discriminate between aggressive and mediocre containment responses. We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions [i.e., New York City (NYC), South Korea, Mexico City]. We show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting parameters related to demographic conditions and aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. Moreover, we show that this simple epidemiological simulator can be used to assess the efficacy of the response of a government/society to an outbreak. The simplicity and accuracy of this model will greatly contribute to democratizing the availability of knowledge in societies regarding the extent of an epidemic event and the efficacy of a governmental response.

The association between COVID-19 cases and deaths and web-based public inquiries.

BACKGROUND: Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in December 2019 and rapidly spread globally. Since there is still no specific treatment available, prevention of disease spread is crucial to manage the pandemic. Adequate public information is very important. To assess the optimal timing, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between web-based interest and new cases and deaths due to COVID-19. METHODS: Web-based interest for queries related to 'coronavirus' was assessed between 1 January and 19 June 2020, using Google Trends in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Italy, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, United Kingdom, and the United States of America. Reliability analysis of the used search terms was performed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. To investigate the association between web-based interest and new COVID-19 cases or deaths, the relative search volume was analysed for correlation with new cases and deaths. RESULTS: Reliability analysis revealed excellent reliability for COVID-19 search terms in all countries. Web-based interest peaked between 23 February and 5 April 2020, which was prior to the peak of new infections and deaths in most included countries. There was a moderate to strong correlation between COVID-19 related queries and new cases or new deaths. CONCLUSION: Web-based interest in COVID-19 peaked prior to the peak of new infections and deaths in most countries included. Thus, monitoring public interest via Google Trends might be useful to select the optimal-timing of web-based disease-specific information and preventive measures.

Comparative analysis of COVID-19 guidelines from six countries: a qualitative study on the US, China, South Korea, the UK, Brazil, and Haiti.

BACKGROUND: In late January, a worldwide crisis known as COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO. Within only a few weeks, the outbreak took on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries. It was a significant issue to prevent and control COVID-19 on both national and global scales due to the dramatic increase in confirmed cases worldwide. Government guidelines provide a fundamental resource for communities, as they guide citizens on how to protect themselves against COVID-19, however, they also provide critical guidance for policy makers and healthcare professionals on how to take action to decrease the spread of COVID-19. We aimed to identify the differences and similarities between six different countries' (US, China, South Korea, UK, Brazil and Haiti) government-provided community and healthcare system guidelines, and to explore the relationship between guideline issue dates and the prevalence/incidence of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: To make these comparisons, this exploratory qualitative study used document analysis of government guidelines issued to the general public and to healthcare professionals. Documents were purposively sampled (N = 55) and analyzed using content analysis. RESULTS: The major differences in the evaluation and testing criteria in the guidelines across the six countries centered around the priority of testing for COVID-19 in the general population, which was strongly dependent on each country's healthcare capacity. However, the most similar guidelines pertained to the clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19, and methods to prevent its contraction. CONCLUSION: In the initial stages of the outbreak, certain strategies were universally employed to control the deadly virus's spread, including quarantining the sick, contact tracing, and social distancing. However, each country dealt with differing healthcare capacities, risks, threats, political and socioeconomic challenges, and distinct healthcare systems and infrastructure. Acknowledging these differences highlights the importance of examining the various countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic with a nuanced view, as each of these factors shaped the government guidelines distributed to each country's communities and healthcare systems.

A discrete-time-evolution model to forecast progress of Covid-19 outbreak.

Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of Covid-19. The proposed model can be easily implemented with daily updated data sets of the pandemic publicly available by distinct online sources. It has only two adjustable parameters and it predicts the evolution of the total number of infected people in a country for the next 14 days if parameters do not change during the analyzed period. The model incorporates the main aspects of the disease such as the fact that there are asymptomatic and symptomatic phases (both capable of propagating the virus), and that these phases take almost two weeks before the infected person status evolves to the next (asymptomatic becomes symptomatic or symptomatic becomes either recovered or dead). A striking advantage of the model for its implementation by the health sector is that it gives directly the number of total infected people in each day (in thousands, tens of thousands or hundred of thousands). Here, the model is tested with data from Brazil, UK and South Korea, presenting low error rates on the prediction of the evolution of the disease in all analyzed countries. We hope this model may be a useful tool to estimate the propagation of the disease.