Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Modeling Study of Factors Driving Variation in Case Fatality Rate by Country.

Background: The novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 has led to a global pandemic in which case fatality rate (CFR) has varied from country to country. This study aims to identify factors that may explain the variation in CFR across countries. Methods: We identified 24 potential risk factors affecting CFR. For all countries with over 5000 reported COVID-19 cases, we used country-specific datasets from the WHO, the OECD, and the United Nations to quantify each of these factors. We examined univariable relationships of each variable with CFR, as well as correlations among predictors and potential interaction terms. Our final multivariable negative binomial model included univariable predictors of significance and all significant interaction terms. Results: Across the 39 countries under consideration, our model shows COVID-19 case fatality rate was best predicted by time to implementation of social distancing measures, hospital beds per 1000 individuals, percent population over 70 years, CT scanners per 1 million individuals, and (in countries with high population density) smoking prevalence. Conclusion: Our model predicted an increased CFR for countries that waited over 14 days to implement social distancing interventions after the 100th reported case. Smoking prevalence and percentage population over the age of 70 years were also associated with higher CFR. Hospital beds per 1000 and CT scanners per million were identified as possible protective factors associated with decreased CFR.

An Investigation into the Infrastructure and Management of Computerized Tomography Units in Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: In Ghana, there is a need to document computed tomography (CT) infrastructure and management systems for the development of interventions to promote CT practices while ensuring patient protection through the establishment of diagnostic reference levels and improved dose management systems. METHODS: A quantitative inquiry using a descriptive, cross-sectional approach was used to collect data, using a semistructured questionnaire related to CT infrastructure and management from the technical heads responsible for CT scanners. Data collected included the scanner characteristics, basic management system and organizational arrangements, number of attending practitioners, clinical indications for CT examinations, and the operation of CT facilities in Ghana. RESULTS: Of the 35 CT scanners installed across the country, 31 were involved in the study. The majority (29%) were Toshiba models. Equipment slices ranged from 1 to 640, of which 45.2% were 16-slice scanners. Many (n = 28, 90.3%) were functioning, and most were installed in the capital city, Accra. The equipment mean age was 7.3 ± 4.4 years, and 25.6% were 10 or more years old. There were 107 operating radiographers, 60 reporting radiologists, and 10 medical physicists employed across the facilities. A total of 204,760 CT examinations were performed yearly (6.8 CT procedures per 1000 people in Ghana). Head CT procedures were the most common, and suspicion of cerebrovascular accident or stroke (32.8%) was the most common indication. Some basic quality management system and policy driving CT infrastructure in Ghana were lacking. CONCLUSION: The results have provided essential information on the status of CT infrastructure and management systems for policy development and planning in CT facilities in Ghana. This study provides those interested in CT services, jobs, or medical equipment investment in Ghana the information needed to make appropriate decisions.

Trauma care before and after optimisation in a level I trauma Centre: Life-saving changes.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of trauma systems has led to a significant reduction in mortality and length of hospital stay. In our level I trauma centre, 24/7 in-hospital coverage was implemented, and a renovation of the trauma room took place to improve the trauma care. The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of the optimised in-hospital infrastructure in terms of mortality, processes and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data. All adult trauma patients admitted to our trauma centre directly during two time periods (2010-2012 and 2014-2016) were included. Any patients below the age of 18 years and patients who underwent primary trauma screening in another hospital were excluded. Logistic and linear regression were used and adjusted for demographics and characteristics of trauma. The primary endpoint was mortality. The secondary endpoints were subgroups of earlier mortality rates and severely injured patients, processes and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: In period I, 1290 patients were included, and in period II, 2421. The adjusted mortality in the trauma room (odds ratio (OR): 0.18; CI: 0.05-0.63) and the total in-hospital mortality (OR: 0.63 CI: 0.42-0.95) showed a significant reduction in period II. The trauma room (TR) time decreased by 30 min (p < 0.001), and the time until CT decreased by 22 min (p < 0.001). The number of delayed diagnoses and complications were significantly lower in the second period, with an OR of 0.2 (CI: 0.1-0.2) and 0.4 (CI: 0.3-0.6), respectively. The hospital length of stay and ICU length of stay decreased significantly, -1.5 day (p = 0.010) and -1.8 days (p = 0.022) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Optimisation of the in-hospital infrastructure related to trauma care resulted in improved survival rates in both severely injured patients as well as in the whole trauma population. Moreover, the processes and clinical outcomes improved, showing a shorter hospital length of stay, shorter TR time, fewer complications and fewer delayed diagnoses.

Challenges in delivering computed tomography coronary angiography as the first-line test for stable chest pain.

OBJECTIVE: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines 'chest pain of recent onset: assessment and diagnosis' (update 2016) state CT coronary angiography (CTCA) should be offered as the first-line investigation for patients with stable chest pain. However, the current provision in the UK is unknown. We aimed to evaluate this and estimate the requirements for full implementation of the guidelines including geographical variation. Ancillary aims included surveying the number of CTCA-capable scanners and accredited practitioners in the UK. METHODS: The number of CTCA scans performed annually was surveyed across the National Health Service (NHS). The number of percutaneous coronary interventions performed for stable angina in the NHS in 2015 was applied to a model based on SCOT-HEART (CTCA in patients with suspected angina due to coronary heart disease: an open-label, parallel-group, multicentre trial) data to estimate the requirement for CTCA, for full guideline implementation. Details of CTCA-capable scanners were obtained from manufacturers and formally accredited practitioner details from professional societies. RESULTS: An estimated 42 340 CTCAs are currently performed annually in the UK. We estimate that 350 000 would be required to fully implement the guidelines. 304 CTCA-capable scanners and 198 accredited practitioners were identified. A marked geographical variation between health regions was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into the scale of increase in the provision of CTCA required to fully implement the updated NICE guidelines. A small specialist workforce and limited number of CTCA-capable scanners may present challenges to service expansion.

Lack of CT scanner in a rural emergency department increases inter-facility transfers: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Rural emergency departments (EDs) are an important gateway to care for the 20% of Canadians who reside in rural areas. Less than 15% of Canadian rural EDs have access to a computed tomography (CT) scanner. We hypothesized that a significant proportion of inter-facility transfers from rural hospitals without CT scanners are for CT imaging. Our objective was to assess inter-facility transfers for CT imaging in a rural ED without a CT scanner. RESULTS: We selected a rural ED that offers 24/7 medical care with admission beds but no CT scanner. Descriptive statistics were collected from 2010 to 2015 on total ED visits and inter-facility transfers. Data was accessible through hospital and government databases. Between 2010 and 2014, there were respectively 13,531, 13,524, 13,827, 12,883, and 12,942 ED visits, with an average of 444 inter-facility transfers. An average of 33% (148/444) of inter-facility transfers were to a rural referral centre with a CT scan, with 84% being for CT scan. Inter-facility transfers incur costs and potential delays in patient diagnosis and management, yet current databases could not capture transfer times. Acquiring a CT scan may represent a reasonable opportunity for the selected rural hospital considering the number of required transfers.

Can Economic Performance Predict Pediatric Surgical Capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa?

BACKGROUND: The relationship between economic status and pediatric surgical capacity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is poorly understood. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Nigeria accounts for 20 % of the population and has the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but whether this economic advantage translates to increased pediatric surgical capacity is unknown. This study compares the pediatric surgical capacity between Nigeria and other countries within the region. METHODS: The Pediatric Personnel, Infrastructure, Procedures, Equipment and Supplies (PediPIPES) survey, a recent tool that is useful in assessing and comparing the capacity of health facilities to deliver essential and emergency surgical care (EESC) to children in LMICs, was used for this evaluation. RESULTS: Data from hospitals in Nigeria (n = 24) and hospitals in 17 other sub-Saharan African countries (n = 25) were compared. The GDP of Nigeria was approximately twenty-five times the average GDP of the 17 other countries represented in our survey. Running water was unavailable in 58 % of the hospitals in Nigeria compared to 20 % of the hospitals in the other countries. Most hospitals in Nigeria and in the other countries did not have a CT scan (67 and 60 %, respectively). Endoscopes were unavailable in 58 % of the hospitals in Nigeria and 44 % of the hospitals in the other countries. CONCLUSIONS: Despite better economic indicators in Nigeria, there were no distinct advantages over the other countries in the ability to deliver EESC to children. Our findings highlighted the urgent need for specific allocation of more resources to pediatric surgical capacity building efforts across the entire region.

[Prospects of the use of mobile MRI scanner in medical service of the Armed Forces].

Computed tomography is currently one of the most informative methods of diagnostics of a broad range of injuries and diseases, as well as an effective additional mean for various surgical interventions thank to intraoperative use. In this regard, the question of the necessity of the use of this diagnostic technology in mobile hospitals is one of the current tasks. The article analyses the experience of the use of mobile CT scanners at the medical service of the armed forces of foreign states and provides calculations indicating the necessity of the introduction of mobile CT scanners into the hospital link. The review and classification of mobile CT scanners have allowed to formulate technical requirements for their hardware capabilities, as well as to draw conclusions about the conditions of their effective use.

[CT scanners in the Brazilian Unified National Health System: installed capacity and utilization]. / Capacidade de produção e grau de utilização de tomógrafo computadorizado no Sistema Único de Saúde.

This study analyzes the supply and use of computed tomography scanners (CT) in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) according to State and administrative levels in the year 2009. Secondary data were used to estimate the installed CT capacity in public healthcare facilities and in private services outsourced by the SUS and calculated the rate of utilization. Average national CT utilization was less than 10%. The public sector showed lower CT use than the private sector outsourced by the SUS. The number of CT tests in the SUS was less than half the number produced in developed countries. The results thus suggest the need for further studies on management practices with high-technology equipment in order to improve allocation of current and future public resources in supplying CT tests.

Capacidade de produção e grau de utilização de tomógrafo computadorizado no Sistema Único de Saúde / CT scanners in the Brazilian Unified National Health System: installed capacity and utilization / Capacidad de producción y grado de utilización del tomógrafo computarizado en el Sistema Único de Salud brasileño

O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a distribuição da oferta da tomografia computadorizada e o grau de utilização do tomógrafo computadorizado (TC) no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), por estado e esfera administrativa, no ano de 2009. Utilizando dados secundários, estimou-se a capacidade de produção dos tomógrafos públicos e privados disponíveis ao SUS e calculou-se o grau de utilização dos mesmos. Os resultados mostraram que o grau de utilização dos TCs dos prestadores SUS possui uma média nacional abaixo de 10% e que o setor público tem o menor grau de utilização do TC, em comparação com o setor privado conveniado ao SUS. Foi observado que a produção de exames por TC no SUS é menor do que a metade da produção obtida em países desenvolvidos. Assim, os resultados sugerem a necessidade de um aprofundamento nos estudos das práticas de gestão tecnológica desses equipamentos, uma vez que é possível uma melhor alocação dos recursos públicos necessários à produção de tomografias computadorizadas.

This study analyzes the supply and use of computed tomography scanners (CT) in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) according to State and administrative levels in the year 2009. Secondary data were used to estimate the installed CT capacity in public healthcare facilities and in private services outsourced by the SUS and calculated the rate of utilization. Average national CT utilization was less than 10%. The public sector showed lower CT use than the private sector outsourced by the SUS. The number of CT tests in the SUS was less than half the number produced in developed countries. The results thus suggest the need for further studies on management practices with high-technology equipment in order to improve allocation of current and future public resources in supplying CT tests.

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la distribución de la oferta de tomografía computarizada y el grado de utilización del tomógrafo computarizado (TC) en el Sistema Único de Salud (SUS) brasileño, en los diferentes estados y niveles administrativos, durante 2009. Se utilizaron datos secundarios, se evaluó la capacidad de producción de tomógrafos públicos y privados, disponibles para el SUS, y se calculó el grado de utilización de los mismos. Los resultados mostraron que la utilización de los tomógrafos contratados por el SUS tienen un promedio nacional menor al 10% y que el sector público tiene un menor grado de utilización del TC, en comparación con el sector privado contratado por el SUS. Se observó que la producción de exámenes por TC en el SUS es menor que la mitad de la producción observada en los países desarrollados. De esta forma, los resultados sugieren la necesidad de profundizar en las investigaciones sobre prácticas de gestión de esos equipos, ya que puede ser posible una mejor utilización de los recursos públicos necesarios para la producción de tomografías computarizadas.

Tomógrafo en el Hospital Zapala / Tomograph at the Zapala Hospital

El Hospital Zapala recibió equipamiento de mediana y alta complejidad acorde a los cambios organizacionales mencionados. Desde la Dirección del Hospital se plantea la necesidad de contar con el apoyo de un servicio de imágenes por Tomografía propio. Actualmente esta necesidad se suple con derivaciones a dos centros privados de la ciudad de Zapala con los que existe un convenio. Se plantean como hipótesis que la incorporación de un tomógrafo en el Hospital Zapala puede ser beneficiosa por alguno/s de los siguientes motivos: - En el caso de pacientes críticos internados en UCICA el traslado en ambulancia puede ser desaconsejable, por lo que un tomógrafo dentro de la institución mejoraría su seguridad y calidad de atención. - La instalación de un equipo propio en el Hospital podría mejorar los tiempos de espera en patologías de urgencia con un estrecho período de ventana diagnóstica y terapéutica (como el ACV candidato a trombolíticos, traumatismos graves con resolución quirúrgica). Los médicos de Hospital Zapala manifiestan demoras en la realización de estudios de urgencia en los efectores privados tercerizados. - La instalación de un equipo propio en el Hospital podría mejorar la calidad de los estudios realizados en el privado. - La inversión inicial en un tomógrafo puede resultar en un uso más eficiente de los recursos. - Su incorporación puede disminuir los traslados en ambulancias. - Contar con un tomógrafo dentro de la misma institución podría potenciar el desarrollo de ciertas especialidades médicas (cirugía, etc.).

The growth of radiation oncology in mainland China during the last 10 years.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the growth of radiation oncology in mainland China during the last 10 years. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Survey questionnaires were sent to board members of the Chinese Society of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology on Jan 1, 2006, and collected on Sept 30, 2006. Results were compared with those from 1997. RESULTS: There were 952 registered radiation oncology centers, 5,247 radiation oncologists, 1,181 physicists, 6,864 nurses, 4,559 radiotherapists, and 1,141 engineers, corresponding to 210%, 153%, 279%, 222%, 203%, and 156% growth from 1997. There were 918 linear accelerators, 472 telecobalt units, 146 deep X-ray machines, 827 fluoroscopy simulators, 796 ionization-chamber dosimeters, 400 brachytherapy units, and 851 treatment planning systems, corresponding to 321%, 124%, 82%, 249%, 264%, 142%, and 481% changes from 1997, respectively. In 2006, there were 214 computed tomography simulators, 149 Gamma Knives, and 467 x-knife machines. Approximately 61%, 48%, and 12% of radiation oncology centers performed treatments using three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy, Gamma Knife or x-knife, and intensity-modulated radiotherapy, respectively. CONCLUSION: Radiation oncology has grown remarkably, and advanced techniques have been implemented very quickly in mainland China during last 10 years, but resources are still far less than the recommendation of the World Health Organization for the population.

Projected impact of colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The impact of a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity is unknown. The multispecialty needs for computerized tomographic examinations raise some doubts on the feasibility of a mass colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography. AIM: To assess whether the number of available computerized tomographic units in Europe is adequate to cover population screening with computerized tomographic colonography. METHODS: A mathematical and a Markov model were, respectively, used to assess the number of computerized tomographic colonography procedures needed to be performed each day in the start-up and in the steady-state phases of a colorectal cancer screening programme in Europe. Such outcome was divided for the total number of computerized tomographic machines aged <10 years estimated to be present in the European hospitals. RESULTS: At a simulated 30% compliance, 28 760 130 European people would need to be screened by the 3482 available computerized tomographic units in a 5-year start-up period, corresponding to 6.6 CTC/CT unit/day. Assuming a 10-year repetition of computerized tomographic colonography between 50 and 80 years, the number of computerized tomographic colonography needed to be performed in the steady-state period appeared to be 4.3/CT unit/day. CONCLUSIONS: The current radiological capacity may cover the need for a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography in a steady state. On the other hand, a substantial implementation of the current computerized tomographic capacity or a synergistic approach with other techniques seems to be necessary for the start-up period.

Infrastructure of radiation oncology in France: a large survey of evolution of external beam radiotherapy practice.

PURPOSE: To study the structural characteristics of radiation oncology facilities for France and to examine how technological evolutions had to be taken into account in terms of accessibility and costs. This study was initiated by the three health care financing administrations that cover health care costs for the French population. The needs of the population in terms of the geographic distribution of the facilities were also investigated. The endpoint was to make proposals to enable an evolution of the practice of radiotherapy (RT) in France. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A survey designed by a multidisciplinary committee was distributed in all RT facilities to collect data on treatment machines, other equipment, personnel, new patients, and new treatments. Medical advisors ensured site visits in each facility. The data were validated at the regional level and aggregated at the national level for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 357 machines had been installed in 179 facilities: 270 linear accelerators and 87 cobalt units. The distribution of facilities and megavoltage units per million inhabitants over the country was good, although some disparities existed between areas. It appeared that most megavoltage units had not benefited from technological innovation, because 25% of the cobalt units and 57% of the linear accelerators were between 6 and 15 years old. Computed tomography access for treatment preparation was not sufficient, and complete data management systems were scarce (15% of facilities). Seven centers had no treatment planning system. Electronic portal imaging devices were available in 44.7% of RT centers and in vivo dosimetry in 35%. A lack of physicians and medical physicists was observed; consequently, the workload exceeded the normal standard recommended by the French White Book. Discrepancies were found between the number of patients treated per machine per year in each area (range, 244.5-604). Most treatments were delivered in smaller facilities (61.6%). CONCLUSION: On the basis of the findings of this study, measures were taken to update the infrastructure of RT in France. A first evaluation showed an improvement of care supply in RT in the country.

Acute stroke care in Illinois: a statewide assessment of diagnostic and treatment capabilities.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To define areas for quality improvement in acute stroke care, a statewide assessment of preparedness for acute stroke diagnosis and treatment was carried out among 202 acute receiving hospitals in Illinois. METHODS: Medical directors or their designees completed a 1-page survey form that addressed availability of personnel, diagnostic technology, and organized programs for the treatment of acute stroke patients at their facility. In the analysis, acute care receiving hospitals in the Greater Chicago Metropolitan Area (GCMA) (Cook, Dupage, Lake, Will, and Kane counties) were compared with those in the remainder of the state. RESULTS: Of the acute care receiving hospitals, 91% responded to the survey. Overall, 99% had an emergency room receiving facility, 98.3% had a CT scanner, and slightly >70% had a recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (r-TPA) protocol. We found that 93.2% of residents in Illinois lived in a county with at least 1 acute care facility with an r-TPA treatment protocol. However, many of the non-GCMA receiving hospitals did not have a neurologist or a neurosurgeon available. Furthermore, specialized stroke diagnostic technology (eg, transcranial Doppler, diffusion-weighted MRI, MR angiography) was generally lacking in both the GCMA and non-GCMA, as were stroke community awareness programs and acute care stroke teams. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke is a preventable and treatable disease. However, there are barriers to stroke care that are based on the availability of personnel, diagnostic technology, and programs. A systematic approach to the organization, implementation, and maintenance of services could improve outcome for stroke patients and reduce the public health burden of this deadly disease.

The number and distribution of computerised tomography scanners in Turkey.

The goal of this study was to investigate the number and distribution of CT scanners in Turkey. Our results show 173 CT scanners in Turkey in 1994, which equals 2.9 scanners per million people. All of the scanners are located in 45 cities, where 81 % of the population resides. The other 31 cities in Turkey have no scanners. Of the 173 scanners, 103 (59.6 %) are owned by the private sector and the other 70 are owned by the public sector. Of Turkey's CT scanners, 49.2 % are located in private health centres, 21.9 % in university hospitals, 16.7 % in Ministry of Health (MOH) hospitals, 10.4 % in private hospitals and 1.8 % in social security hospitals.

The mobile hospital technology industry: focus on the computerized tomography scanner.

This study of firms offering mobile hospital technology to rural hospitals in eight northwestern states found that several permanently parked computerized tomography (CT) units were found where mobile routes had atrophied due to the purchase of fixed units by former mobile CT hospital clients. Based on a criterion of 140 scans per month per unit as a threshold of profitable production, units owned by larger firms (those that operate five or more units) were more likely to be profitable than units owned by smaller firms (71% versus 20%, P = 0.03). A substantial number of rural hospitals lose money on mobile CT due to low Medicare reimbursement. In some areas, mobile hospital technology is a highly competitive industry. Evidence was found that several firms compete in some geographic areas and that some firms have lost hospital clients to competing vendors.