Tracking temporal variations of fatality and symptomology correlated with COVID-19 dominant variants and vaccine effectiveness in the United States.

Introduction: We described how COVID-19 fatality and symptoms varied by dominant variant and vaccination in the US. Methods: Using the Restricted Access Dataset from the US CDC (1/1/2020-10/20/2022), we conducted a cross-sectional study assessing differences in COVID-19 deaths, severity indicators (hospitalization, ICU, pneumonia, abnormal X-ray, acute respiratory distress syndrome, mechanical ventilation) and 12 mild symptoms by dominant variant/vaccination periods using logistic regression after controlling for confounders. Results: We found the highest fatality during the dominant periods of Wild (4.6%) and Delta (3.4%). Most severe symptoms appeared when Delta was dominant (Rate range: 2.0-9.4%). Omicron was associated with higher mild symptoms than other variants. Vaccination showed consistent protection against death and severe symptoms for most variants (Risk Ratio range: 0.41-0.93). Boosters, especially the second, provided additional protection, reducing severe symptoms by over 50%. Discussion: This dataset may serve as a useful tool to monitor temporospatial changes of fatality and symptom for case management and surveillance.

Interim Effectiveness Estimates of 2024 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-Associated Hospitalization - REVELAC-i Network, Five South American Countries, March-July 2024.

To reduce influenza-associated morbidity and mortality, countries in South America recommend annual influenza vaccination for persons at high risk for severe influenza illness, including young children, persons with preexisting health conditions, and older adults. Interim estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Southern Hemisphere countries can provide early information about the protective effects of vaccination and help guide Northern Hemisphere countries in advance of their season. Using data from a multicountry network, investigators estimated interim VE against influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization using a test-negative case-control design. During March 13-July 19, 2024, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay identified 11,751 influenza-associated SARI cases; on average, 21.3% of patients were vaccinated against influenza, and the adjusted VE against hospitalization was 34.5%. The adjusted VE against the predominating subtype A(H3N2) was 36.5% and against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 37.1%. These interim VE estimates suggest that although the proportion of hospitalized patients who were vaccinated was modest, vaccination with the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine significantly lowered the risk for hospitalization. Northern Hemisphere countries should, therefore, anticipate the need for robust influenza vaccination campaigns and early antiviral treatment to achieve optimal protection against influenza-associated complications.

Relative effectiveness of bivalent boosters against severe COVID-19 outcomes among people aged ≥ 65 years in Finland, September 2022 to August 2023.

BackgroundLong-term effectiveness data on bivalent COVID-19 boosters are limited.AimWe evaluated the long-term protection of bivalent boosters against severe COVID-19 among ≥ 65-year-olds in Finland.MethodsIn this register-based cohort analysis, we compared the risk of three severe COVID-19 outcomes among ≥ 65-year-olds who received a bivalent booster (Original/Omicron BA.1 or Original/BA.4-5; exposed group) between 1/9/2022 and 31/8/2023 to those who did not (unexposed). We included individuals vaccinated with at least two monovalent COVID-19 vaccine doses before 1/9/2022 and ≥ 3 months ago. The analysis was divided into two periods: 1/9/2022-28/2/2023 (BA.5 and BQ.1.X predominating) and 1/3/2023-31/8/2023 (XBB predominating). The hazards for the outcomes between exposed and unexposed individuals were compared with Cox regression.ResultsWe included 1,191,871 individuals. From 1/9/2022 to 28/2/2023, bivalent boosters were associated with a reduced risk of hospitalisation due to COVID-19 (hazard ratio (HR): 0.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.37-0.55), death due to COVID-19 (HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.38-0.62), and death in which COVID-19 was a contributing factor (HR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.31-0.51) during 14-60 days since vaccination. From 1/3/2023 to 31/8/2023, bivalent boosters were associated with lower risks of all three severe COVID-19 outcomes during 61-120 days since a bivalent booster (e.g. HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.39-0.71 for hospitalisation due to COVID-19); thereafter no notable risk reduction was observed. No difference was found between Original/Omicron BA.1 and Original/BA.4-5 boosters.ConclusionBivalent boosters initially reduced the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes by ca 50% among ≥ 65-year-olds, but protection waned over time. These findings help guide vaccine development and vaccination programmes.

Influenza Epidemiology and Vaccine Effectiveness Following Funded Influenza Vaccine in Queensland, Australia, 2022.

BACKGROUND: In 2022, publicly funded influenza vaccine was made available to all residents of Queensland, Australia. This study compared influenza epidemiology in 2022 with previous years (2017-2021) and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) during 2022. METHODS: The study involved a descriptive analysis of influenza notifications and a case-control study to estimate VE. Cases were notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza, and controls were individuals who were test negative for COVID-19. Cases and controls were matched on age, postcode and specimen collection date. VE against hospitalisation was investigated by matching hospitalised cases to controls. Conditional logistic regression models were adjusted for sex. RESULTS: In 2022, Queensland experienced an early influenza season onset (April-May) and high case numbers (n = 45,311), compared to the previous 5 years (annual average: 29,364) and 2020-2021 (2020:6047; 2021:301) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjusted VE (VEadj) against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 39% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37-41), highest for children aged 30 months to < 5 years (61%, 95% CI: 49-70) and lowest for adults aged ≥ 65 years (24%, 95% CI: 17-30). VEadj against influenza-associated hospitalisation was 54% (95% CI: 48-59). Among children < 9 years of age, VEadj against laboratory-confirmed influenza (55%, 95% CI: 49-61) and hospitalisation (67%, 95% CI: 39-82) was higher in those who received a complete dose schedule. CONCLUSION: In Queensland, the 2022 influenza season started earlier than the previous 5 years. VE against influenza notifications varied across age groups. VE estimates against influenza-associated hospitalisation were higher than those against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

RSV Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalization Among US Adults 60 Years and Older.

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine against hospitalization for acute respiratory illness among US adults aged 60 years and older.

Assessing real world vaccine effectiveness: A review of Scotland's approach to monitoring human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact on HPV infection and cervical disease.

High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can progress to cervical cancer which is the fourth most common cancer in women globally. In Scotland, the incidence of cervical cancer has a strong socioeconomic deprivation gradient disproportionately affecting women from more deprived areas. An HPV vaccination programme was initiated in Scotland in 2008 targeting girls aged 12-13 years with a catch-up campaign running for the first three years for girls aged up to 18 years. The programme has evolved over the last 16 years with changes in the type of vaccine, dosing schedules and the extension of the programme to boys and gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. Vaccine uptake in Scotland has historically been high but has gradually decreased over time and disparities exist in women from more deprived areas of Scotland. The ability to link national immunisation and screening databases in Scotland has allowed direct monitoring of the impact of the HPV vaccine on virological and histological outcomes. Analyses of this linked data have demonstrated real-world evidence of high vaccine effectiveness against HPV infection, cervical disease, and cervical cancer with evidence of herd immunity in unvaccinated women. Continued monitoring is crucial to assess the duration of protection, the impact of vaccine and dosing schedules changes and the emergence of potential type replacement. With the World Health Organisation's aim to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem by the next century addressing the inequalities in cervical cancer incidence will be crucial. This will require targeted interventions for women most at risk of cervical cancer to ensure elimination is achieved timely for all women in Scotland.

Within-household SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccine effectiveness in the first three COVID-19 school outbreaks in northern Viet Nam, September-December 2021.

Objective: The risk of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from schoolchildren to their household and the protective effects of vaccination in these settings remain poorly understood. We assessed the transmission dynamics of schoolchildren with SARS-CoV-2 within their households and the protective effects of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination among household members in Viet Nam. Methods: We estimated the attack rate, vaccine effectiveness and adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts of children confirmed to have COVID-19 who attended three schools in Ha Nam, Phu Tho and Thanh Hoa provinces between September and December 2021 using multivariable regression with household-level random effects. Results: This retrospective cohort study included 157 children infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their 540 household contacts. The attack rate among household contacts was 24.6% (133/540). Overall, vaccine effectiveness among household contacts was 39% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1 to -63), higher among males than females and higher in adults aged > 40 years. COVID-19 transmission was greater among female household contacts compared with males (aRR: 1.35, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.95), although not statistically significant, and highest among those aged 19-39 years (aRR: 2.51, 95% CI: 1.50 to 4.21). Fully vaccinated household contacts had significantly lower infection risk (aRR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.84). Discussion: We found substantial onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from schoolchildren to household members, and older people were more likely to be protected by vaccination. We recommend that schoolchildren and all household members living with schoolchildren receive at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Recognizing the role of schoolchildren in the onward transmission of COVID-19 is an important lesson learned by Viet Nam that can help not only in managing other outbreaks but also in protecting schoolchildren by predicting the progress of the outbreak and preparing for a timely response.

Effectiveness and impact of monovalent rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan: a test-negative case-control analysis.

BACKGROUND: Afghanistan introduced monovalent rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix) into its national immunisation schedule in January, 2018. While post-licensure studies have shown substantial declines in rotavirus gastroenteritis cases and deaths globally, there is little evidence of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness and impact from low-income countries in Asia. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the Rotarix vaccine and the impact of Rotarix vaccine on rotavirus gastroenteritis hospitalisations (ie, hospital admissions) among children younger than 5 years in Afghanistan. METHODS: We used a test-negative case-control design embedded in an active sentinel surveillance platform to evaluate vaccine effectiveness. Children born on or after Jan 1, 2018, who had documentation of their rotavirus vaccination status and who were admitted for acute gastroenteritis at one of four sentinel hospitals from May, 2018 to December, 2021 were eligible to be included. We used an unconditional logistic regression model to estimate vaccine effectiveness and 95% CIs for a complete series of doses compared with no rotavirus vaccine doses among patients admitted with acute gastroenteritis. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation was calculated as (1 - [odds of being vaccinated in cases] / [odds of being vaccinated in controls]) × 100%. We compared pre-vaccine (2013-15) and post-vaccine (2019-21) surveillance data from two sites to calculate vaccine impact. FINDINGS: The vaccine effectiveness analysis included 1172 cases and 2173 controls. Approximately 2108 (63·0%) of 3345 cases and controls were male, 1237 (37·0%) were female, and 2171 (65·0%) were aged 6-11 months. Two doses of Rotarix were 45% (95% CI 22-62) effective against rotavirus hospitalisation in children aged 6-59 months, adjusting for age, severity, admission year, and rotavirus season. Rotavirus positivity decreased from 51% pre-vaccine to 39% post-vaccine, resulting in a 39% adjusted reduction in rotavirus positivity among children younger than 5 years admitted with acute gastroenteritis. INTERPRETATION: Rotarix showed moderate effectiveness in preventing rotavirus gastroenteritis hospitalisations, consistent with findings in other low-income countries. These findings support the continued administration of the rotavirus vaccine in Afghanistan. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. TRANSLATION: For the Dari translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Early COVID-19 XBB.1.5 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalisation Among Adults Targeted for Vaccination, VEBIS Hospital Network, Europe, October 2023-January 2024.

We conducted a multicentre test-negative case-control study covering the period from October 2023 to January 2024 among adult patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection in Europe. We provide early estimates of the effectiveness of the newly adapted XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccines against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalisation. Vaccine effectiveness was 49% overall, ranging between 69% at 14-29 days and 40% at 60-105 days post vaccination. The adapted XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccines conferred protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation in the first 3.5 months post vaccination, with VE > 70% in older adults (≥ 65 years) up to 1 month post vaccination.

Estimating vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 using cause-specific sick leave as an indicator: a nationwide population-based cohort study, Norway, July 2021 - December 2022.

BACKGROUND: Due to changes in testing policy and increased use of rapid tests, other indicators for SARS-CoV-2 infections are needed to monitor vaccine effectiveness (VE). We aimed to estimate VE against COVID-19 sick leave (> 3 days, certified by a medical professional) among employed individuals (25-64-years-old) in Norway. METHODS: We performed a nationwide cohort study by collating data from the Emergency preparedness register for COVID-19. We used adjusted Cox proportional hazard models with vaccine status as a time-varying covariate and presented results as adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Separate models were run against sick leave and against SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Delta period (June-December 2021), and against sick leave during the Omicron period (January-December 2022) when SARS-CoV-2 PCR-testing was replaced by rapid self-tests and infections were underreported. RESULTS: We included 2,236,419 individuals during the Delta period, of whom 73,776 (3.3%) had a reported infection and 54,334 (2.4%) were registered with sick leave. Of the 2,206,952 included individuals in the Omicron period, 300,140 (13.6%) were registered with sick leave. During the Delta period, 55% (26,611) of individuals who had registered sick leave also had a positive test, compared to 32% (96,445) during the Omicron period. The VE against sick leave during the Delta period followed a similar waning pattern to that against SARS-CoV-2 infections. After the second and third dose, the lowest aHRs were estimated for 2-7 days after vaccination for both sick leave (0.25; 95%CI 0.24-0.26 and 0.26; 95% CI 0.24-0.29) and infection ( 0.16; 95% CI 0.15-0.17 and 0.18; 95% CI 0.16-0.19) respectively. During the Omicron period, aHRs for sick leave were higher than during the Delta period, but the lowest aHRs were still found in 2-7 weeks after receiving the second (0.61; 95% CI 0.59-0.64) or third dose (0.63; 95% CI 0.62-0.64). CONCLUSION: Our results showed that sick leave could be a relevant indicator for VE in the surveillance of COVID-19 and a finding that may be important in the surveillance of other respiratory infection.

Implementation and adherence to regular asymptomatic testing in a COVID-19 vaccine trial.

BACKGROUND: For pathogens which cause infections that present asymptomatically, evaluating vaccine efficacy (VE) against asymptomatic infection is important for understanding a vaccine's potential epidemiological impact. Regular testing for subclinical infections is a potentially valuable strategy but its success hinges on participant adherence and minimising false positives. This paper describes the implementation and adherence to weekly testing in a COVID-19 vaccine trial. METHODS: COV002 was a phase 2/3 trial assessing the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Asymptomatic infections were detected using weekly self-administered swabs for RT-PCR testing. We analysed adherence using mixed-effects regression models and estimated the probability of true and false positive asymptomatic infections using estimates of adherence and testing characteristics. FINDINGS: 356,551 tests were self-administered by 10,811 participants during the 13-month follow-up. Median adherence was 75.0% (IQR 42·6-90·9), which translated to a 74·5% (IQR 50·9-78·8) probability of detecting a positive asymptomatic infection during the swabbing period, and between 21 and 96 false positives during VE evaluation. The odds of returning a swab declined by 8% per week and further after testing positive and unblinding. Adherence was higher in older age groups, females and non-healthcare workers. INTERPRETATION: The COV002 trial demonstrated the feasibility of running a long-term regular asymptomatic testing strategy. This information could be valuable for designing future phase III vaccine trials in which infection is an outcome. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, AstraZeneca.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 bivalent vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection among residents of US nursing homes, November 2022 - March 2023.

BACKGROUND: Residents of nursing homes remain an epidemiologically important population for COVID-19 prevention efforts, including vaccination. We aim to understand effectiveness of bivalent vaccination for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections in this population. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort of nursing home residents from November 1, 2022, through March 31, 2023, to identify new SARS-CoV-2 infections. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios comparing residents with a bivalent vaccination compared with residents not up to date with vaccination recommendations. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1 - Hazard Ratio) * 100. RESULTS: Among 6,916 residents residing in 76 nursing homes included in our cohort, 3,211 (46%) received a bivalent vaccine 7 or more days prior to censoring. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection comparing receipt of a bivalent vaccine versus not up to date vaccine status was 29% (95% Confidence interval 18% to 39%). Vaccine effectiveness for receipt of a bivalent vaccine against residents who were unvaccinated or vaccinated more than a year prior was 32% (95% CI: 20% to 42%,) and was 25% compared with residents who were vaccinated with a monovalent vaccine in the past 61-365 days (95% CI:10% to 37%). CONCLUSIONS: Bivalent COVID-19 vaccines provided additional protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections in nursing home residents during our study time-period, compared to both no vaccination or vaccination more than a year ago and monovalent vaccination 60 - 365 days prior. Ensuring nursing home residents stay up to date with vaccine recommendations remains a critical tool for COVID-19 prevention efforts.

Real-world comparative effectiveness of a third dose of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 among adults aged ≥ 65 years in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: To compare the real-world effectiveness of a third dose of mRNA-1273 versus a third dose of BNT162b2 against breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalizations among adults aged ≥ 65 years who completed a primary series of an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine (regardless of which primary series was received). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This observational comparative vaccine effectiveness (VE) study was conducted using administrative claims data from the US HealthVerity database (September 22, 2021, to August 31, 2022). A third dose of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 was assessed for preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations and medically attended COVID-19 among adults aged ≥ 65 years. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to balance baseline characteristics between vaccine groups. Incidence rates from patient-level data and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) using weighted Cox proportional hazards models were calculated to estimate relative VE for each outcome. RESULTS: Overall, 94,587 and 92,377 individuals received a third dose of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, respectively. Among the weighted population, the median age was 69 years (interquartile range, 66-74), 53 % were female, and 46 % were commercially insured. COVID-19 hospitalization rates per 1000 person-years (PYs) were 5.61 (95 % CI, 5.13-6.09) for mRNA-1273 and 7.06 (95 % CI, 6.54-7.57) for BNT162b2 (HR, 0.82; 0.69-0.98). Medically attended COVID-19 rates per 1000 PYs (95 % CI) were 95.05 (95 % CI, 93.03-97.06) for mRNA-1273 and 106.55 (95 % CI, 104.53-108.57) for BNT162b2 (HR, 0.93; 0.89-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this observational comparative VE database study provide evidence that among older adults, a third dose of mRNA-1273 was more effective in preventing breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 infection compared with a third dose of BNT162b2.

Predicting Efficacies of Fractional Doses of Vaccines by Using Neutralizing Antibody Levels: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants that have eluded immunity from vaccines and prior infections, vaccine shortages and vaccine effectiveness pose unprecedented challenges for governments in expanding booster vaccination programs. The fractionation of vaccine doses might be an effective strategy for helping society to face these challenges, as fractional doses may have efficacies comparable with those of the standard doses. Objective: This study aims to investigate the relationship between vaccine immunogenicity and protection and to project efficacies of fractional doses of vaccines for COVID-19 by using neutralizing antibody levels. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed efficacies against both asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection, using data from 13 studies of 10 COVID-19 vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We further projected efficacies for fractional doses, using neutralization as an intermediate variable, based on immunogenicity data from 51 studies included in our systematic review. Results: In comparisons with the convalescent level, vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection increased from 8.8% (95% CI 1.4%-16.1%) to 71.8% (95% CI 63%-80.7%) and from 33.6% (95% CI 23.6%-43.6%) to 98.6% (95% CI 97.6%-99.7%), respectively, as the mean neutralization level increased from 0.1 to 10 folds of the convalescent level. Additionally, mRNA vaccines provided the strongest protection, which decreased slowly for fractional dosing with dosages between 50% and 100% of the standard dose. We also observed that although vaccine efficacy increased with the mean neutralization level, the rate of this increase was slower for vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic infection than for vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with studies on immune protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Based on our study, we expect that fractional-dose vaccination could provide partial immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. Our findings provide a theoretical basis for the efficacy of fractional-dose vaccines, serving as reference evidence for implementing fractional dosing vaccine policies in areas facing vaccine shortages and thereby mitigating disease burden. Fractional-dose vaccination could be a viable vaccination strategy comparable to full-dose vaccination and deserves further exploration.

The impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on symptomatic and severe SARS-CoV-2 infection during a period of Omicron variant dominance in Ireland, December 2021 to March 2023.

BackgroundAs Ireland prepared for an autumn 2023 COVID-19 vaccination booster campaign, there was concern that vaccine fatigue would affect uptake, which has been abating.AimThis study aimed to quantify the direct impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Ireland on averted COVID-19-related outcomes including symptomatic presentations to primary care/community testing centres, emergency department (ED) presentations, hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths, in individuals aged ≥ 50 years, during Omicron dominance.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective observational COVID-19 vaccine impact study in December 2021-March 2023 in Ireland. We used national data on notified outcomes and vaccine coverage, as well as vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates, sourced from the World Health Organization's live systematic review of VE, to estimate the count and prevented fraction of outcomes in ≥ 50-year-olds averted by the COVID-19 vaccination programme in this age group.ResultsThe COVID-19 vaccination programme averted 48,551 symptomatic COVID-19 presentations to primary care/community testing centres (36% of cases expected in the absence of vaccination), 9,517 ED presentations (53% of expected), 102,160 hospitalisations (81% of expected), 3,303 ICU admissions (89% of expected) and 15,985 deaths (87% of expected).ConclusionsWhen Omicron predominated, the COVID-19 vaccination programme averted symptomatic and severe COVID-19 cases, including deaths due to COVID-19. In line with other international vaccine impact studies, these findings emphasise the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination for population health and the healthcare system and are relevant for informing COVID-19 booster vaccination programmes, pandemic preparedness and communicating the reason for and importance of COVID-19 vaccination in Ireland and internationally.

Hypothesis testing and sample size considerations for the test-negative design.

The test-negative design (TND) is an observational study design to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) that enrolls individuals receiving diagnostic testing for a target disease as part of routine care. VE is estimated as one minus the adjusted odds ratio of testing positive versus negative comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Although the TND is related to case-control studies, it is distinct in that the ratio of test-positive cases to test-negative controls is not typically pre-specified. For both types of studies, sparse cells are common when vaccines are highly effective. We consider the implications of these features on power for the TND. We use simulation studies to explore three hypothesis-testing procedures and associated sample size calculations for case-control and TND studies. These tests, all based on a simple logistic regression model, are a standard Wald test, a continuity-corrected Wald test, and a score test. The Wald test performs poorly in both case-control and TND when VE is high because the number of vaccinated test-positive cases can be low or zero. Continuity corrections help to stabilize the variance but induce bias. We observe superior performance with the score test as the variance is pooled under the null hypothesis of no group differences. We recommend using a score-based approach to design and analyze both case-control and TND. We propose a modification to the TND score sample size to account for additional variability in the ratio of controls over cases. This work enhances our understanding of the data generating mechanism in a test-negative design (TND) and how it is distinct from that of a case-control study due to its passive recruitment of controls.

Estimation of the poliovirus type 2 immunity gap in South Africa.

In the context of polio eradication efforts, accurate assessment of vaccination programme effectiveness is essential to public health planning and decision making. Such assessments are often based on zero-dose children, estimated using the number of children who did not receive the first dose of the Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis containing vaccine as a proxy. Our study introduces a novel approach to directly estimate the number of children susceptible to poliovirus type 2 (PV2) and uses this approach to provide district-level estimates for South Africa of susceptible children born between 2017 and 2022. We used district-level data on annual doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) administered, live births, and population sizes, from 2017 through 2022. We imputed missing vaccination data, implemented flexible assumptions regarding dose distribution in the eligible population, and used estimated efficacy values for one, two, three, and four doses of IPV, to compute the number of susceptible and immune children by birth year. We validated our approach by comparing an intermediary output with zero-dose children (ZDC) estimated using data reported by WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC). Our results indicate high heterogeneity in susceptibility to PV2 across South Africa's 52 districts as of the end of 2022. In children under 5 years, PV2 susceptibility ranged from approximately 30 % in districts including Xhariep (31.9 %), Ekurhuleni (30.1 %), and Central Karoo (29.8 %), to less than 4 % in Sarah Baartman (1.9 %), Buffalo City (2.1 %), and eThekwini (3.2 %). Our susceptibility estimates were consistently higher than ZDC over the timeframe. We estimated that ZDC decreased nationally from 155,168 (152,737-158,523) in 2017 to 108,593 in 2021, and increased to 127,102 in 2022, a trend consistent with ZDC derived from data reported by WUENIC. While our approach provides a more comprehensive profile of PV2 susceptibility, our susceptibility and ZDC estimates generally agree in the ranking of districts according to risk.

The impact of comorbidity status in COVID-19 vaccines effectiveness before and after SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in northeastern Mexico: a retrospective multi-hospital study.

Introduction: The end of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been declared by the World Health Organization on May 5, 2023. Several vaccines were developed, and new data is being published about their effectiveness. However, the clinical trials for the vaccines were performed before the Omicron variant appeared and there are population groups where vaccine effectiveness still needs to be tested. The overarching goal of the present study was to analyze the effects of COVID-19 vaccination before and after the Omicron variant in patients considering comorbidities in a population from Nuevo Leon, Mexico. Methods: Epidemiological COVID-19 data from the Mexican Social Security Institute were collected from 67 hospitals located in northeastern Mexico, from July 2020 to May 2023, and a total of 669,393 cases were compiled, 255,819 reported a SARS-CoV-2 positive reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) test or a positive COVID-19 antigen rapid test. Results: Before Omicron (BO, 2020-2021), after 14 days of two doses of COVID-19 vaccine, BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines were effective against infection in non-comorbid and all comorbid subgroups, whereas after Omicron (AO, 2022- 2023) there was no significant effectiveness against infection with none of the vaccines. Regarding hospitalization BO, BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, CoronaVac and mRNA-1273 significantly protected non-comorbid patients whereas BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, and mRNA-1273, protected all comorbid subgroups against hospitalization. AO, BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, CoronaVac and mRNA-1273 were effective against hospitalization in non-comorbid patients whereas for most comorbid subgroups BNT162b2, ChAdOx1 and CoronaVac were effective against hospitalization. Non-comorbid patients were protected against death as an outcome of COVID-19 during the BO period with most vaccines whereas a reduction in effectiveness was observed AO with mRNA-1273 vaccines in patients with hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. Discussion: BO, COVID-19 vaccines were effective against infection, hospitalization, and death whereas AO, COVID-19 vaccines failed to protect the population from COVID-19 infection. A varying effectiveness against hospitalization and death is observed AO.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and Digital Pandemic Surveillance in Germany (eCOV Study): Web Application-Based Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges to global health systems. Efficient public health responses required a rapid and secure collection of health data to improve the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and examine the vaccine effectiveness (VE) and drug safety of the novel COVID-19 vaccines. OBJECTIVE: This study (COVID-19 study on vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects over 16 years; eCOV study) aims to (1) evaluate the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines through a digital participatory surveillance tool and (2) assess the potential of self-reported data for monitoring key parameters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. METHODS: Using a digital study web application, we collected self-reported data between May 1, 2021, and August 1, 2022, to assess VE, test positivity rates, COVID-19 incidence rates, and adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination. Our primary outcome measure was the VE of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The secondary outcome measures included VE against hospitalization and across different SARS-CoV-2 variants, adverse events after vaccination, and symptoms during infection. Logistic regression models adjusted for confounders were used to estimate VE 4 to 48 weeks after the primary vaccination series and after third-dose vaccination. Unvaccinated participants were compared with age- and gender-matched participants who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and those who had received 3 doses of BNT162b2 and were not infected before the last vaccination. To assess the potential of self-reported digital data, the data were compared with official data from public health authorities. RESULTS: We enrolled 10,077 participants (aged ≥16 y) who contributed 44,786 tests and 5530 symptoms. In this young, primarily female, and digital-literate cohort, VE against infections of any severity waned from 91.2% (95% CI 70.4%-97.4%) at week 4 to 37.2% (95% CI 23.5%-48.5%) at week 48 after the second dose of BNT162b2. A third dose of BNT162b2 increased VE to 67.6% (95% CI 50.3%-78.8%) after 4 weeks. The low number of reported hospitalizations limited our ability to calculate VE against hospitalization. Adverse events after vaccination were consistent with previously published research. Seven-day incidences and test positivity rates reflected the course of the pandemic in Germany when compared with official numbers from the national infectious disease surveillance system. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that COVID-19 vaccinations are safe and effective, and third-dose vaccinations partially restore protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study showcased the successful use of a digital study web application for COVID-19 surveillance and continuous monitoring of VE in Germany, highlighting its potential to accelerate public health decision-making. Addressing biases in digital data collection is vital to ensure the accuracy and reliability of digital solutions as public health tools.

Duration of effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine in Japan: a retrospective cohort study using large-scale population-based registry data.

BACKGROUND: Most evidence of the waning of vaccine effectiveness is limited to a relatively short period after vaccination. METHODS: Data obtained from a linked database of healthcare administrative claims and vaccination records maintained by the municipality of a city in the Kanto region of Japan were used in this study. The study period extended from April 1, 2020, to December 31, 2022. The duration of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine was analyzed using a time-dependent piecewise Cox proportional hazard model using the age, sex and history of cancer, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease as covariates. RESULTS: Among the 174,757 eligible individuals, 14,416 (8.3%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 and 936 (0.54%) were hospitalized for COVID-19. Multivariate analysis based on the time-dependent Cox regression model with reference of non-vaccine group revealed a lower incidence of COVID-19 in the one-dose group (hazard ratio, 0.76 [95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.91]), two-dose (0.89 [0.85-0.93]), three-dose (0.80 [0.76-0.85]), four-dose (0.93 [0.88-1.00]), and five-dose (0.72 [0.62-0.84]) groups. A lower incidence of COVID-19-related hospitalization was observed in the one-dose group (0.42 [0.21-0.81]), two-dose (0.44 [0.35-0.56]), three-dose (0.38 [0.30-0.47]), four-dose (0.20 [0.14-0.28]), and five-dose (0.11 [0.014-0.86]) groups. Multivariable analyses based on the time-dependent piecewise Cox proportional hazard model with reference of non-vaccine group revealed significant preventive effects of the vaccine for 4 months for the incidence of COVID-19 and ≥ 6 months for hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine effectiveness showed gradual attenuation with time after vaccination; however, protective effects against the incidence of COVID-19 and hospitalization were maintained for 4 months and ≥ 6 months, respectively. These results may aid in formulating routine vaccination plans after the COVID-19 pandemic.