Incidence, cost and gender differences of oropharyngeal and noncervical anogenital cancers in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated with a significant public health burden, yet few studies have been conducted in Asia, especially on noncervical cancers. We estimated the incidence and cost of oropharyngeal and noncervical anogenital (anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile) cancer in Korea. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Korea's National Health Insurance (NHI) claim database from 2013 to 2016. The main outcome measures were the number of respective cancer incidences during the study period and the annual costs per patient in the first year after diagnosis, which was adjusted by relevant variables based on the regression analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 8022 patients with these cancers were identified, and oropharyngeal cancer comprised 46% of them. The crude incidence rate for male oropharyngeal cancer was significantly higher than that of females (3.1 vs. 0.7 per 100,000 as of 2016, respectively). Additionally, the crude incidence of male oropharyngeal cancer increased from 2.7 in 2013 to 3.1 in 2016, whereas that of female and other cancers was stable during the study period. The mean annual incidence-based cost per patient in 2016 was highest for oropharyngeal cancers (21,870 USD), and it was significantly higher in males than in females based on then regression analysis (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Oropharyngeal cancer comprises the highest number of HPV-associated noncervical cancer incidences in Korea, and the incidence and cost of oropharyngeal cancer was significantly higher among males than females. More aggressive public health policy toward males may decrease gender gap of oropharyngeal cancer.

The costs of treating vaginal and vulval cancer in England (2009-2015).

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a pre-requisite for cervical cancer, which represents the third most common cancer among women worldwide. A causal relationship also exists between HPV and cancer in other areas of the female reproductive system including the vagina and vulva. Whilst the incidence of vaginal cancer in the UK has remained relatively stable over the past 25 years, vulval cancer rates are increasing. A body of literature exists on the epidemiology and aetiology of vaginal and vulval cancer, but little is known about the economic burden. The objective of this study was to quantify the costs of treating these cancers on the National Health Service (NHS) in England. METHODS: Inpatient and outpatient episodes were derived from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Health Resource Group (HRG) tariffs and National Reference Costs were used to estimate the cost of treating pre-cancerous and invasive vaginal and vulval lesions in England. RESULTS: The study showed that for the 5 years from 2009/2010 to 2014/2015 the total cost associated with pre-cancerous and invasive vaginal and vulval lesions was over £14 million per year on average (95% of which was attributed to inpatient costs). Vulval cancer accounted for the largest proportion; an estimated 60% of the total cost (£8.82 million). On average 4316 patients per year in England were admitted to hospital and 912 patients attended outpatient settings for pre-cancerous and invasive disease of the vagina and vulva. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that vaginal and vulval cancer cost the English health care system over £14 million per year. Given the causal role of HPV in a proportion of these cancers, preventative measures such as the national HPV immunisation programme have the potential to reduce the economic burden. To ensure optimal use of NHS resources, it is important that future economic evaluations of such preventative measures consider the full burden of HPV related disease.

Cervical, Vaginal, and Vulvar Cancer Costs Incurred by the Medicaid Program in Publicly Insured Patients in Texas.

OBJECTIVES: To determine from the perspective of the State of Texas, the direct medical care costs associated with cervical, vaginal, and vulvar cancers in Texas Medicaid enrollees. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a case-control study and searched Texas Medicaid databases between 2008 and 2012 for eligible cancer patients. A comparison group was selected for each cancer site using a 2-step 1:1 propensity score matching method. Patients were followed for 2 years after cancer diagnosis to estimate monthly and yearly direct medical costs. For each cancer site, the differential cost between patients and the matched comparison individuals was the estimated cost associated with cancer. RESULTS: The study included 583 cervical, 62 vaginal, and 137 vulvar cancer patients and equal numbers of cancer-free comparison individuals. Among the cases, 322 cervical cancer patients, 46 vaginal cancer patients, and 102 vulvar cancer patients were Medicaid-Medicare dual eligible enrollees. For Medicaid-only enrollees, the adjusted first- and second-year mean total differential costs were US $19,859 and $3,110 for cervical cancer, US $19,627 and $4,582 for vaginal cancer, and US $7,631 and $777 for vulvar cancer patients, respectively. For Medicaid-Medicare dual eligible enrollees, adjusted first- and second-year mean total differential costs incurred by Medicaid were US $2,565 and $792 for cervical cancer, US $1,293 and $181 for vaginal cancer, and US $1,774 and $1,049 for vulvar cancer patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The direct medical costs associated with cervical, vaginal, and vulvar cancers in Texas Medicaid were substantial in the first 2 years after cancer diagnosis, but dual eligibility for Medicare coverage attenuated Medicaid costs.

Systematic review and evidence synthesis of non-cervical human papillomavirus-related disease health system costs and quality of life estimates.

BACKGROUND: Many economic evaluations of human papillomavirus vaccination should ideally consider multiple disease outcomes, including anogenital warts, respiratory papillomatosis and non-cervical cancers (eg, anal, oropharyngeal, penile, vulvar and vaginal cancers). However, published economic evaluations largely relied on estimates from single studies or informal rapid literature reviews. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of articles up to June 2016 to identify costs and utility estimates admissible for an economic evaluation from a single-payer healthcare provider's perspective. Meta-analyses were performed for studies that used same utility elicitation tools for similar diseases. Costs were adjusted to 2016/2017 US$. RESULTS: Sixty-one papers (35 costs; 24 utilities; 2 costs and utilities) were selected from 10 742 initial records. Cost per case ranges were US$124-US$883 (anogenital warts), US$6912-US$52 579 (head and neck cancers), US$12 936-US$51 571 (anal cancer), US$17 524-34 258 (vaginal cancer), US$14 686-US$28 502 (vulvar cancer) and US$9975-US$27 629 (penile cancer). The total cost for 14 adult patients with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis was US$137 601 (one paper).Utility per warts episode ranged from 0.651 to 1 (12 papers, various utility elicitation methods), with pooled mean EQ-5D and EQ-VAS of 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.75), respectively. Fifteen papers reported utilities in head and neck cancers with range 0.29 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.76) to 0.94 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.0). Mean utility reported ranged from 0.5 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.61) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.75) (anal cancer), 0.59 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.64) (vaginal cancer), 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70) (vulvar cancer) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.84) (penile cancer). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in values reported from each paper reflect variations in cancer site, disease stages, study population, treatment modality/setting and utility elicitation methods used. As patient management changes over time, corresponding effects on both costs and utility need to be considered to ensure health economic assumptions are up-to-date and closely reflect the case mix of patients.

Hospitalization burden associated with malignant neoplasia and in situ carcinoma in vulva and vagina during a 5-year period (2009-2013) in Spain: An epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Vulvar and vaginal cancers are considered rare cancers in women. Human Papillomavirus is responsible for 30-76% of them. The aim of this study was to describe the burden of hospital admissions by malignant neoplasia (MN) and in situ carcinoma (ISC) of vulva and vagina from 2009 to 2013, in Spain METHODS: This observational, descriptive study used discharge information obtained from the national surveillance system for hospital data, Conjunto Mínimo Básico de Datos, CMBD, provided by the Ministry of Health. RESULTS: From 2009-2013, we found 9,896 hospitalizations coded as MN or ISC of vulva and vagina. Mean age of hospitalization was 69.94 ±â€¯15.16 years; average length of hospital stay (ALOS) was 10.02 ±â€¯12.40 days, and mean hospitalization costs were 5,140.31 ±â€¯3,220.61 euros. Mean hospitalization rate was 9.874 per 100,000 women aged >14 years old (95% CI: 9.689-10.058); mean mortality rate was 0.932 per 100,000 women aged >14 years old (95% CI: 0.872-0.991) and mean case fatality rate was 9.438% (95% CI: 8.862-10.014). CONCLUSION: MN and ISC of vulva and vagina are responsible for a considerable hospitalization burden. Information about these hospitalizations could be useful for cost effectiveness analysis and monitoring of HPV vaccination effectiveness.

Mean medical costs associated with vaginal and vulvar cancers for commercially insured patients in the United States and Texas.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the average medical costs for vaginal and vulvar cancers in a commercially insured population in the U.S. and Texas. METHODS: 2011-2014U.S. MarketScan databases were used to estimate the average medical costs associated with vaginal and vulvar cancers. Women with newly diagnosed vaginal or vulvar cancer were matched to a comparison group without cancer using propensity score. Year 1 and year 2 costs after index diagnosis date were estimated. A generalized linear model was used to estimate the cost for censored months. The differential costs between groups were defined as the net costs associated with cancer diagnosis and treatment. RESULTS: The analysis included 355 women with vaginal cancer and 997 with vulvar cancer in the U.S. The year 1 and year 2 costs for vaginal cancer were $86,995 and $51,107, respectively. The year 1 and year 2 costs for vulvar cancer were $37,657 and $19,139, respectively. The major factors associated with higher monthly vaginal and vulvar cancer costs were higher Charlson Comorbidity Index score and higher medical costs prior to cancer diagnosis. Monthly costs for vaginal and vulvar cancers decreased rapidly from month 1 to month 6 after diagnosis and then remained stable. CONCLUSIONS: Seventy to 75% of all vaginal and vulvar cancers are due to HPV infections and mean medical costs associated with these cancers are substantial. These data will serve as key cost parameters in the economic evaluation of HPV vaccination dissemination and estimation of the long-term net economic benefit of promoting HPV vaccination.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in the context of high cervical cancer incidence and low screening coverage.

BACKGROUND: Estonia has high cervical cancer incidence and low screening coverage. We modelled the impact of population-based bivalent, quadrivalent or nonavalent HPV vaccination alongside cervical cancer screening. METHODS: A Markov cohort model of the natural history of HPV infection was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating a cohort of 12-year-old girls with bivalent, quadrivalent or nonavalent vaccine in two doses in a national, school-based vaccination programme. The model followed the natural progression of HPV infection into subsequent genital warts (GW); premalignant lesions (CIN1-3); cervical, oropharyngeal, vulvar, vaginal and anal cancer. Vaccine coverage was assumed to be 70%. A time horizon of 88years (up to 100years of age) was used to capture all lifetime vaccination costs and benefits. Costs and utilities were discounted using an annual discount rate of 5%. RESULTS: Vaccination of 12-year-old girls alongside screening compared to screening alone had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €14,007 (bivalent), €14,067 (quadrivalent) and €11,633 (nonavalent) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in the base-case scenario and ranged between €5367-21,711, €5142-21,800 and €4563-18,142, respectively, in sensitivity analysis. The results were most sensitive to changes in discount rate, vaccination regimen, vaccine prices and cervical cancer screening coverage. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of 12-year-old girls alongside current cervical cancer screening can be considered a cost-effective intervention in Estonia. Adding HPV vaccination to the national immunisation schedule is expected to prevent a considerable number of HPV infections, genital warts, premalignant lesions, HPV related cancers and deaths. Although in our model ICERs varied slightly depending on the vaccine used, they generally fell within the same range. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination was found to be most dependent on vaccine cost and duration of vaccine immunity, but not on the type of vaccine used.

Cost-effectiveness of the prophylactic HPV vaccine: an application to the Netherlands taking non-cervical cancers and cross-protection into account.

Despite an effective screening programme, 600-700 women are still diagnosed with cervical cancer in the Netherlands each year. In 2009 a prophylactic vaccine against HPV-type 16 and 18 was implemented in the national immunisation programme to decrease the incidence of cervical cancer. There is evidence that infections with several oncogenic HPV types other than the vaccine types 16 and 18 are also prevented by vaccination, also known as cross-protection. Besides cervical cancer, HPV can also cause cancers at other sites such as the oropharynx, vulva, vagina and the anus/anal area. In this study we estimated the maximum health and economic benefits of vaccinating 12-year old girls against infection with HPV, taking cross-protection and non-cervical cancers into account. In the base-case, we found an incremental cost ratio (ICER) of €5815 per quality adjusted life year (QALY). Robustness of this result was examined in sensitivity analysis. The ICER proved to be most sensitive to vaccine price, discounting rates, costs of cervical cancer and to variation in the disutility of cervical cancer.

Economic burden of non-cervical cancers attributable to human papillomavirus: a European scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: Human papillomavirus (HPV) has an important role in the aetiology of a range of diseases, including cervical, other anogenital, and head and neck cancers, genital warts and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. This literature review was conducted to identify the available cost data for non-cervical HPV-related cancers (anal, penile, vulvar, vaginal, head and neck) in Europe and to inform discussion of methodological challenges for future economic research. METHODS: The literature search was conducted using Medline and key words to identify papers published in English or French between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2011. Abstracts of major conferences were searched to identify relevant information. Structured methods were used to select references that focused on overall disease management for inclusion in the review. RESULTS: A total of 21 references from seven countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, The Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK) were selected, including 11 references relating to head and neck cancers, five to anogenital cancers, and five to more than one HPV-related disease. Non-cervical cancers accounted for a substantial proportion of the economic burden of HPV-related cancers, and this burden was mainly driven by men (∼70%). A wide range of costs were reported for each disease, particularly head and neck cancers, predominantly due to disease complexity and variation in study design. LIMITATIONS: The main limitation of this study was in the search strategy, which was constrained by the key words, the database searched, and the restriction on language (English/French). CONCLUSIONS: Non-cervical cancers attributable to HPV impose a substantial economic burden in Europe, and the burden is greater in men than in women. This review provides useful information for future health-economic studies assessing the impact of HPV vaccination on all HPV-related diseases.

Incidence and cost of anal, penile, vaginal and vulvar cancer in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Besides being a causative agent for genital warts and cervical cancer, human papillomavirus (HPV) contributes to 40-85% of cases of anal, penile, vaginal and vulvar cancer and precancerous lesions. HPV types 16 & 18 in particular contribute to 74-93% of these cases. Overall the number of new cases of these four cancers may be relatively high implying notable health care cost to society. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence and the health care sector costs of anal, penile, vaginal and vulvar cancer. METHODS: New anogenital cancer patients were identified from the Danish National Cancer Register using ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Resource use in the health care sector was estimated for the year prior to diagnosis, and for the first, second and third years after diagnosis. Hospital resource use was defined in terms of registered hospital contacts, using DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups) and DAGS (Danish Outpatient Groups System) charges as cost estimates for inpatient and outpatient contacts, respectively. Health care consumption by cancer patients diagnosed in 2004-2007 was compared with that by an age- and sex-matched cohort without cancer. Hospital costs attributable to four anogenital cancers were estimated using regression analysis. RESULTS: The annual incidence of anal cancer in Denmark is 1.9 per 100,000 persons. The corresponding incidence rates for penile, vaginal and vulvar cancer are 1.7, 0.9 and 3.6 per 100,000 males/females, respectively. The total number of new cases of these four cancers in Denmark is about 270 per year. In comparison, the total number of new cases cervical cancer is around 390 per year. The total cost of anogenital cancer to the hospital sector was estimated to be 7.6 million Euros per year. Costs associated with anal and vulvar cancer constituted the majority of the costs. CONCLUSIONS: Anogenital cancer incurs considerable costs to the Danish hospital sector. It is expected that the current HPV vaccination program will markedly reduce this burden.

Economic burden of vulvar and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia: retrospective cost study at a German dysplasia centre.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus is responsible for a variety of diseases including grade 2 and 3 vulvar and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia. The aim of this study was to assess parts of the burden of the last diseases including treatment costs. The direct medical resource use and cost of surgery associated with neoplasia and related diagnostic procedures (statutory health insurance perspective) were estimated, as were the indirect costs (productivity losses) associated with surgical treatment and related gynaecology visits for diagnostic purposes. METHODS: Data from 1991-2008 were retrospectively collected from patient records of the outpatient unit of the Gynaecological Dysplasia Clinic, Heinrich Heine University, Dusseldorf, Germany. Two subgroups of patients were analysed descriptively: women undergoing one surgical procedure related to a diagnosis of vulvar and/or vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia, and women undergoing two or more surgical procedures. Target measures were per-capita medical resource consumption, direct medical cost and indirect cost. RESULTS: Of the 94 women analysed, 52 underwent one surgical intervention and 42 two or more interventions (mean of 3.0 interventions during the total period of analysis). Patients undergoing one surgical intervention accrued €881 in direct costs and €682 in indirect costs; patients undergoing more than one intervention accrued €2,605 in direct costs and €2,432 in indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden on German statutory health insurance funds and society induced by surgical interventions and related diagnostic procedures for grade 2/3 vulvar and vaginal neoplasia should not be underrated. The cost burden is one part of the overall burden attributable to human papillomavirus infections.

Cost-consequences evaluation between bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines in Italy: the potential impact of different cross-protection profiles.

OBJECTIVES: Two human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are currently available: a bivalent HPV-16/18 and a quadrivalent HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine. The vaccines may have different sustained- and cross-protection levels against non-vaccine oncogenic HPV-types. This study investigated the potential difference in clinical and economic impacts provided by two HPV vaccines in Italy. METHODS: A prevalence-based model estimated the potential net difference in HPV-related lesions (abnormal pap smear, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW)) and associated costs generated by the two vaccines. Incidence and treatment costs were obtained from Italian and European sources. Vaccine efficacy rates were based on published data for each vaccine. Lifetime vaccine efficacy was assumed. Results are reported over one year after reaching a steady state. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the lesion incidence, vaccine effectiveness, treatment costs and sustained protection. RESULTS: The bivalent vaccine would prevent an additional reduction of 7976 abnormal pap smears; 601 CIN1; 1826 CIN2/3 and 295 CC cases compared to the quadrivalent vaccine while 25,848 genital wart cases would be prevented by the quadrivalent vaccine. The additional cost averted with the bivalent vaccine was estimated at €2,385,354 per year compared to the quadrivalent vaccine. The most influential parameters were CC- and GW-related costs and the difference in sustained protection. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that, in the Italian setting, the bivalent vaccine would prevent more precancerous and CC lesions than the quadrivalent vaccine. This translates into a greater cost averted for the bivalent vaccine, which could completely offset savings in GW-related costs associated with the quadrivalent vaccine.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccines in the prevention of cervical cancer in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: Cervical cancer (CC) had the second highest incidence of female cancers in Malaysia in 2003-2006. Prevention is possible by both Pap smear screening and HPV vaccination with either the bivalent vaccine (BV) or the quadrivalent vaccine (QV). In the present study, cost effectiveness options were compared for three programs i.e. screening via Pap smear; modeling of HPV vaccination (QV and BV) and combined strategy (screening plus vaccination). A scenario based sensitivity analysis was conducted using screening population coverages (40-80%) and costs of vaccines (RM 100-200/dose) were calculated. METHODS: This was an economic burden, cross sectional study in 2006-2009 of respondents interviewed from six public Gynecology-Oncology hospitals. Methods included expert panel discussions to estimate treatment costs of CC, genital warts and vulva/vagina cancers by severity and direct interviews with respondents using costing and SF-36 quality of life questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 502 cervical cancer patients participated with a mean age at 53.3±11.2 years and a mean marriage length of 27.7±12.1 years, Malays accounting for 44.2%. Cost/quality adjusted life year (QALY) for Pap smear in the base case was RM 1,215 and RM 1,100 at increased screening coverage. With QV only, in base case it was RM 15,662 and RM 24,203 when the vaccination price was increased. With BV only, the respective figures were RM 1,359,057 and RM 2,530,018. For QV combined strategy cost/QALY in the base case it was RM 4,937, reducing to RM 3,395 in the best case and rising to RM 7,992 in the worst case scenario. With the BV combined strategy, these three cost/QALYs were RM 6,624, RM 4,033 and RM 10,543. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) showed that screening at 70% coverage or higher was highly cost effective at RM 946.74 per QALYs saved but this was preceded by best case combined strategy with QV at RM 515.29 per QALYs saved. CONCLUSIONS: QV is more cost effective than BV. The QV combined strategy had a higher CE than any method including Pap smear screening at high population coverage.

Healthcare resource use and costs associated with cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancers in a large U.S. health plan.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate healthcare resource utilization and costs of cervical, vulvar and vaginal cancers in a large U.S. health plan. METHODS: We estimated incremental ambulatory visits, hospitalizations, prescription fills and healthcare costs for cancer cases relative to population controls. Data for cervical (n=2788), vulvar (n=621) and vaginal cancer (n=254) cases and an identical number of controls were obtained from a large U.S. health plan. Cases were identified via diagnostic codes on a healthcare claim and matched to controls. Incremental resource use was assessed using a two-stage regression method developed by Carides, with costs analyzed using Lin's regression method. RESULTS: Through 4 years of follow-up, cervical cancer patients had incremental resource use of 12.0 ambulatory visits, 0.6 hospital admissions and 7.0 prescription fills per case. Cumulative 4-year incremental healthcare costs per case ranged from $8236 for vulvar cancers to $18,799 for cervical cancers. When adjusted to cervical, vulvar and vaginal cancer excess mortality rates observed within the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program, estimated incremental costs were $29,649 for cervical, $11,356 for vulvar and $21,963 for vaginal cancers. There was a significant upward trend in costs with increasing age for cervical cancer, however trends were less consistent for vulvar and vaginal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Direct medical costs associated with cervical, vulvar and vaginal cancers were observed to be substantial. These data can help inform evaluations of the economic burden and cost-effectiveness of prevention of these cancers, particularly for vulvar and vaginal disease, where such data have not been previously reported.

The economic burden of noncervical human papillomavirus disease in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was (1) to estimate the direct medical costs of 7 major noncervical human papillomavirus (HPV)-related conditions that include genital cancers, mouth and oropharyngeal cancers, anogenital warts, and juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and (2) to approximate the economic burden of noncervical HPV disease. STUDY DESIGN: For each condition, we synthesized the best available secondary data to produce lifetime cost per case estimates, which were expressed in present value. Using an incidence-based approach, we then applied these costs to develop an aggregate measure of economic burden. RESULTS: The economic burden that was associated with noncervical HPV-6-, -11-, -16-, and -18-related conditions in the US population in the year 2003 approximates $418 million (range, $160 million to $1.6 billion). CONCLUSION: The economic burden of noncervical HPV disease is substantial. Analyses that assess the value of investments in HPV prevention and control programs should take into account the costs and morbidity and mortality rates that are associated with these conditions.

Cytologic screening after hysterectomy for benign disease.

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to determine the effectiveness of vaginal cytology tests after hysterectomy for benign disease. STUDY DESIGN: We studied a 10-year retrospective cohort of patients after hysterectomy (n = 697 women, 9074 woman years). Patients were excluded if they had any type of invasive gynecologic malignancy. The main outcome variable was development of a vaginal cytologic abnormality, evaluated with Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: We found 33 abnormal cytology results; most were of little clinical significance except for two biopsy-proven dysplasia cases. When we controlled for age, the risk was 4.67 for patients with a history of a cervical cytologic abnormality (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 10.6). We needed 633 tests to detect one true positive case of vaginal dysplasia. CONCLUSIONS: The low incidence of vaginal dysplasia and carcinoma, combined with the high false-positive rate, supports decreasing the number of screening tests performed for these low-risk patients.