Children and young people's body mass index measures derived from routine data sources: A national data linkage study in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Routine monitoring of Body Mass Index (BMI) in general practice, and via national surveillance programmes, is essential for the identification, prevention, and management of unhealthy childhood weight. We examined and compared the presence and representativeness of children and young people's (CYPs) BMI recorded in two routinely collected administrative datasets: general practice electronic health records (GP-BMI) and the Child Measurement Programme for Wales (CMP-BMI), which measures height and weight in 4-5-year-old school children. We also assessed the feasibility of combining GP-BMI and CMP-BMI data for longitudinal analyses. METHODS: We accessed de-identified population-level GP-BMI data for calendar years 2011 to 2019 for 246,817 CYP, and CMP-BMI measures for 222,772 CYP, held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. We examined the proportion of CYP in Wales with at least one GP-BMI record, its distribution by child socio-demographic characteristics, and trends over time. We compared GP-BMI and CMP-BMI distributions. We quantified the proportion of children with a CMP-BMI measure and a follow-up GP-BMI recorded at an older age and explored the representativeness of these measures. RESULTS: We identified a GP-BMI record in 246,817 (41%) CYP, present in a higher proportion of females (54.2%), infants (20.7%) and adolescents. There was no difference in the deprivation profile of those with a GP-BMI measurement. 31,521 CYP with a CMP-BMI had at least one follow-up GP-BMI; those with a CMP-BMI considered underweight or very overweight were 87% and 70% more likely to have at least one follow-up GP-BMI record respectively compared to those with a healthy weight, as were males and CYP living in the most deprived areas of Wales. CONCLUSIONS: Records of childhood weight status extracted from general practice are not representative of the population and are biased with respect to weight status. Linkage of information from the national programme to GP records has the potential to enhance discussions around healthy weight at the point of care but does not provide a representative estimate of population level weight trajectories, essential to provide insights into factors determining a healthy weight gain across the early life course. A second CMP measurement is required in Wales.

The longitudinal associations between ambient air pollution exposure and dementia in the UK: results from the cognitive function and ageing study II and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been recognised as a potential risk factor for dementia. Yet recent epidemiological research shows mixed evidence. The aim of this study is to investigate the longitudinal associations between ambient air pollution exposure and dementia in older people across five urban and rural areas in the UK. METHODS: This study was based on two population-based cohort studies of 11329 people aged ≥ 65 in the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II (2008-2011) and Wales (2011-2013). An algorithmic diagnosis method was used to identify dementia cases. Annual concentrations of four air pollutants (NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5) were modelled for the year 2012 and linked via the participants' postcodes. Multistate modelling was used to examine the effects of exposure to air pollutants on incident dementia incorporating death and adjusting for sociodemographic factors and area deprivation. A random-effect meta-analysis was carried out to summarise results from the current and nine existing cohort studies. RESULTS: Higher exposure levels of NO2 (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.14), O3 (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.70, 1.15), PM10 (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.58), PM2.5 (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.71, 2.79) were not strongly associated with dementia in the two UK-based cohorts. Inconsistent directions and strengths of the associations were observed across the two cohorts, five areas, and nine existing studies. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the literature, this study did not find clear associations between air pollution and dementia. Future research needs to investigate how methodological and contextual factors can affect evidence in this field and clarity the influence of air pollution exposure on cognitive health over the lifecourse.

Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and 15-Year Prostate Cancer Mortality: A Secondary Analysis of the CAP Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP) reported no effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality at a median 10-year follow-up (primary outcome), but the long-term effects of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality remain unclear. Objective: To evaluate the effect of a single invitation for PSA screening on prostate cancer-specific mortality at a median 15-year follow-up compared with no invitation for screening. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary analysis of the CAP randomized clinical trial included men aged 50 to 69 years identified at 573 primary care practices in England and Wales. Primary care practices were randomized between September 25, 2001, and August 24, 2007, and men were enrolled between January 8, 2002, and January 20, 2009. Follow-up was completed on March 31, 2021. Intervention: Men received a single invitation for a PSA screening test with subsequent diagnostic tests if the PSA level was 3.0 ng/mL or higher. The control group received standard practice (no invitation). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was reported previously. Of 8 prespecified secondary outcomes, results of 4 were reported previously. The 4 remaining prespecified secondary outcomes at 15-year follow-up were prostate cancer-specific mortality, all-cause mortality, and prostate cancer stage and Gleason grade at diagnosis. Results: Of 415 357 eligible men (mean [SD] age, 59.0 [5.6] years), 98% were included in these analyses. Overall, 12 013 and 12 958 men with a prostate cancer diagnosis were in the intervention and control groups, respectively (15-year cumulative risk, 7.08% [95% CI, 6.95%-7.21%] and 6.94% [95% CI, 6.82%-7.06%], respectively). At a median 15-year follow-up, 1199 men in the intervention group (0.69% [95% CI, 0.65%-0.73%]) and 1451 men in the control group (0.78% [95% CI, 0.73%-0.82%]) died of prostate cancer (rate ratio [RR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.85-0.99]; P = .03). Compared with the control, the PSA screening intervention increased detection of low-grade (Gleason score [GS] ≤6: 2.2% vs 1.6%; P < .001) and localized (T1/T2: 3.6% vs 3.1%; P < .001) disease but not intermediate (GS of 7), high-grade (GS ≥8), locally advanced (T3), or distally advanced (T4/N1/M1) tumors. There were 45 084 all-cause deaths in the intervention group (23.2% [95% CI, 23.0%-23.4%]) and 50 336 deaths in the control group (23.3% [95% CI, 23.1%-23.5%]) (RR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-1.01]; P = .11). Eight of the prostate cancer deaths in the intervention group (0.7%) and 7 deaths in the control group (0.5%) were related to a diagnostic biopsy or prostate cancer treatment. Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, a single invitation for PSA screening compared with standard practice without routine screening reduced prostate cancer deaths at a median follow-up of 15 years. However, the absolute reduction in deaths was small. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN92187251.

Trends in hospital admissions and prescribing due to diseases of the digestive system in England and Wales between 1999 and 2019: An ecological study.

This study aimed to investigate the trends in diseases of the digestive system hospital admissions (DDSHA) in England and Wales between (1999-2019). Secondary objectives were to investigate the type of admission and medication prescribing related to the digestive system in England. This is an ecological study using data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database and the Patient Episode Database between April 1999 and March 2019. The rate of hospital admissions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was calculated by dividing the number of DDSHA by the mid-year population. The trend in hospital admissions was assessed using a Poisson model. Overall, the rate of DDSHA rose by 84.2% (from 2231.27 [95% CI 2227.26-2235.28] in 1999 to 4109.33 [95% CI 4104.29-4114.38] in 2019 per 100,000 persons, trend test, P < .001). The most remarkable rise in hospital admission was seen in liver diseases, followed by other diseases of intestines with 1.85-fold, and 1.59-fold, respectively. Between 2004 and 2019, the overall prescribing rate for medications related to the gastrointestinal system increased by 74.6%, and stoma care related medications prescribing rate increased by 2.25-fold, followed by drugs affecting intestinal secretions and antisecretory drugs and mucosal protectants. There was an increase in hospital admission rate due to GI diseases in the United Kingdom (UK) by 84.2% from 1999 to 2019. The most remarkable rise in the rate of hospital admissions was seen in diseases of the liver and intestine.

The well-being and work-related stress of senior school leaders in Wales and Northern Ireland during COVID-19 "educational leadership crisis": A cross-sectional descriptive study.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused far-reaching societal changes, including significant educational impacts affecting over 1.6 billion pupils and 100 million education practitioners globally. Senior school leaders were at the forefront and were exposed to particularly high demands during a period of "crisis leadership". This occupation were already reporting high work-related stress and large numbers leaving the profession preceding COVID-19. This cross-sectional descriptive study through the international COVID-Health Literacy network aimed to examine the well-being and work-related stress of senior school leaders (n = 323) in Wales (n = 172) and Northern Ireland (n = 151) during COVID-19 (2021-2022). Findings suggest that senior school leaders reported high workloads (54.22±11.30 hours/week), low well-being (65.2% n = 202, mean WHO-5 40.85±21.57), depressive symptoms (WHO-5 34.8% n = 108) and high work-related stress (PSS-10: 29.91±4.92). High exhaustion (BAT: high/very high 89.0% n = 285) and specific psychosomatic complaints (experiencing muscle pain 48.2% n = 151) were also reported, and females had statistically higher outcomes in these areas. School leaders were engaging in self-endangering working behaviours; 74.7% (n = 239) gave up leisure activities in favour of work and 63.4% (n = 202) sacrificed sufficient sleep, which was statistically higher for females. These findings are concerning given that the UK is currently experiencing a "crisis" in educational leadership against a backdrop of pandemic-related pressures. Senior leaders' high attrition rates further exacerbate this, proving costly to educational systems and placing additional financial and other pressures on educational settings and policy response. This has implications for senior leaders and pupil-level outcomes including health, well-being and educational attainment, requiring urgent tailored and targeted support from the education and health sectors. This is particularly pertinent for Wales and Northern Ireland as devolved nations in the UK, who are both implementing or contemplating major education system level reforms, including new statutory national curricula, requiring significant leadership, engagement and ownership from the education profession.

The burden of acute eye conditions on different healthcare providers: a retrospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The demand for acute eyecare exponentially outstrips capacity. The public lacks awareness of community eyecare services. AIM: To quantify the burden of acute eyecare on different healthcare service providers in a national population through prescribing and medicines provision by GPs, optometrists, and pharmacists, and provision of care by accident and emergency (A&E) services. A secondary aim was to characterise some of the drivers of this burden. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective data-linkage study set in Wales, UK. METHOD: Analysis of datasets was undertaken from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (GP and A&E), the Eye Health Examination Wales service (optometry), and the Common Ailments Scheme (pharmacy) during 2017-2018. RESULTS: A total of 173 999 acute eyecare episodes delivered by GPs (168 877 episodes) and A&E services (5122) were identified during the study. This resulted in 65.4 episodes of care per 1000 people per year. GPs prescribed a total of 87 973 653 prescriptions within the general population. Of these, 820 693 were related to acute eyecare, resulting in a prescribing rate of 0.9%. A total of 5122 eye-related and 905 224 general A&E attendances were identified, respectively, resulting in an A&E attendance rate of 0.6%. Optometrists and pharmacists managed 51.8% (116 868) and 0.6% (2635) of all episodes, respectively. Older females and infants of both sexes were more likely to use GP prescribing services, while adolescent and middle-aged males were more likely to visit A&E. GP prescribing burden was driven partially by economic deprivation, access to services, and health score. Season, day of the week, and time of day were predictors of burden in GP and A&E. CONCLUSION: Acute eyecare continues to place considerable burden on GP and A&E services in Wales, particularly in urban areas with greater economic deprivation and lower overall health. This is likely to increase with a rapidly ageing population. With ongoing pathway development to better utilise optometry and pharmacy, and improved public awareness, there may be scope to change this trajectory.

Place of death in Parkinson's disease and related disorders in England and Wales: post-pandemic trends and implications for care planning.

BACKGROUND: With growing emphasis on palliative care for neurodegenerative conditions, understanding trends in place of death helps improve quality of end-of-life care for people with Parkinson's disease and related disorders (PDRDs), focusing allocation of resources and training and identifying inequalities. OBJECTIVES: Review national and regional place of death trends for people with PDRD including pre- and post-pandemic trends. METHODS: Mortality data for England and Wales (March 2018 and July 2022) were analysed with summary statistics and interrupted time series, exploring place of death for those who died with PDRD, with and without coexisting dementia, with reference to all deaths in England and Wales. RESULTS: Of 2,415,566 adult deaths, 56,790 included mention of PDRD. Hospital deaths were most common in people with PDRD (39.17%), followed by care homes (38.84%). People with PDRD were half as likely to die in hospice compared with the general population (2.03 vs 4.94%). Proportion of care home deaths fell significantly after March 2020 (40.6-37%, P = 0.035). Regionally, London was an outlier with a lower proportion of deaths occurring in care homes with a higher proportion of hospital deaths. CONCLUSION: Place of death for people with PDRD is changing, with more hospice and home deaths. People with PDRD, particularly those with co-existent dementia, are less likely to access inpatient hospice care than the general population. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of care home deaths has reduced significantly with an increase in home deaths, with implications for service and resource allocation.

Enabling the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner.

BACKGROUND: Studying long-term trends in educational inequalities in health is important for monitoring and policy evaluation. Data issues regarding the allocation of people to educational groups hamper the study and international comparison of educational inequalities in mortality. For the UK, this has been acknowledged, but no satisfactory solution has been proposed. OBJECTIVE: To enable the examination of long-term mortality trends by educational level for England and Wales (E&W) in a time-consistent and internationally comparable manner, we propose and implement an approach to deal with the data issues regarding mortality data by educational level. METHODS: We employed 10-year follow-ups of individuals aged 20+ from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS), which include education information from each decennial census (1971-2011) linked to individual death records, for a 1% representative sample of the E&W population. We assigned the individual cohort data to single ages and calendar years, and subsequently obtained aggregate all-cause mortality data by education, sex, age (30+), and year (1972-2017). Our data adjustment approach optimised the available education information at the individual level, and adjusts-at the aggregate level-for trend discontinuities related to the identified data issues, and for differences with country-level mortality data for the total population. RESULTS: The approach resulted in (1) a time-consistent and internationally comparable categorisation of educational attainment into the low, middle, and high educated; (2) the adjustment of identified data-quality related discontinuities in the trends over time in the share of personyears and deaths by educational level, and in the crude and the age-standardised death rate by and across educational levels; (3) complete mortality data by education for ONS-LS members aged 30+ in 1972-2017 which aligns with country-level mortality data for the total population; and (4) the estimation of inequality measures using established methods. For those aged 30+ , both absolute and relative educational inequalities in mortality first increased and subsequently decreased. CONCLUSION: We obtained additional insights into long-term trends in educational inequalities in mortality in E&W, and illustrated the potential effects of different data issues. We recommend the use of (part of) the proposed approach in other contexts.

Health care utilization and mortality for people with epilepsy during COVID-19: A population study.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to characterize changes in health care utilization and mortality for people with epilepsy (PWE) during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study using linked, individual-level, population-scale anonymized health data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. We identified PWE living in Wales during the study "pandemic period" (January 1, 2020-June 30, 2021) and during a "prepandemic" period (January 1, 2016-December 31, 2019). We compared prepandemic health care utilization, status epilepticus, and mortality rates with corresponding pandemic rates for PWE and people without epilepsy (PWOE). We performed subgroup analyses on children (<18 years old), older people (>65 years old), those with intellectual disability, and those living in the most deprived areas. We used Poisson models to calculate adjusted rate ratios (RRs). RESULTS: We identified 27 279 PWE who had significantly higher rates of hospital (50.3 visits/1000 patient months), emergency department (55.7), and outpatient attendance (172.4) when compared to PWOE (corresponding figures: 25.7, 25.2, and 87.0) in the prepandemic period. Hospital and epilepsy-related hospital admissions, and emergency department and outpatient attendances all reduced significantly for PWE (and all subgroups) during the pandemic period. RRs [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for pandemic versus prepandemic periods were .70 [.69-.72], .77 [.73-.81], .78 [.77-.79], and .80 [.79-.81]. The corresponding rates also reduced for PWOE. New epilepsy diagnosis rates decreased during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period (2.3/100 000/month cf. 3.1/100 000/month, RR = .73, 95% CI = .68-.78). Both all-cause deaths and deaths with epilepsy recorded on the death certificate increased for PWE during the pandemic (RR = 1.07, 95% CI = .997-1.145 and RR = 2.44, 95% CI = 2.12-2.81). When removing COVID deaths, RRs were .88 (95% CI = .81-.95) and 1.29 (95% CI = 1.08-1.53). Status epilepticus rates did not change significantly during the pandemic (RR = .95, 95% CI = .78-1.15). SIGNIFICANCE: All-cause non-COVID deaths did not increase but non-COVID deaths associated with epilepsy did increase for PWE during the COVID-19 pandemic. The longer term effects of the decrease in new epilepsy diagnoses and health care utilization and increase in deaths associated with epilepsy need further research.

Epilepsy and the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death: A population study.

OBJECTIVE: People with epilepsy (PWE) may be at an increased risk of severe COVID-19. It is important to characterize this risk to inform PWE and for future health and care planning. We assessed whether PWE were at higher risk of being hospitalized with, or dying from, COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using linked, population-scale, anonymized electronic health records from the SAIL (Secure Anonymised Information Linkage) databank. This includes hospital admission and demographic data for the complete Welsh population (3.1 million) and primary care records for 86% of the population. We identified 27 279 PWE living in Wales during the study period (March 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021). Controls were identified using exact 5:1 matching (sex, age, and socioeconomic status). We defined COVID-19 deaths as having International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 on death certificates or occurring within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. COVID-19 hospitalizations were defined as having a COVID-19 ICD-10 code for the reason for admission or occurring within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. We recorded COVID-19 vaccinations and comorbidities known to increase the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate hazard ratios. RESULTS: There were 158 (.58%) COVID-19 deaths and 933 (3.4%) COVID-19 hospitalizations in PWE, and 370 (.27%) deaths and 1871 (1.4%) hospitalizations in controls. Hazard ratios for COVID-19 death and hospitalization in PWE compared to controls were 2.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-2.59) and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.94-2.37), respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios (adjusted for comorbidities) for death and hospitalization were 1.32 (95% CI = 1.08-1.62) and 1.60 (95% CI = 1.44-1.78). SIGNIFICANCE: PWE are at increased risk of being hospitalized with, and dying from, COVID-19 when compared to age-, sex-, and deprivation-matched controls, even when adjusting for comorbidities. This may have implications for prioritizing future COVID-19 treatments and vaccinations for PWE.

Responding to 'wicked problems': policy and governance on drug-related deaths in English and Welsh prisons, 2015-2021.

BACKGROUND: Prison settings have been neglected in the growing literature on drug-related deaths. This paper explores policy and practice issues regarding the governance of drug-related deaths in prisons in England and Wales from 2015-2021. METHODS: Thematic documentary analysis was conducted on national level policy documents published between 2015-2021 (e.g. drug strategies, prison policy documents, Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Prisons and Prison and Probation Ombudsman (PPO) annual reports and guidance for staff). At the local (prison) level, all of the PPO fatal investigation reports and their associated action plans relating to 171 drug-related deaths from 2015-2021 were analysed thematically. Various modes of governance were identified using Head's 'wicked problems' conceptual framework including avoidance and denial, coercive controls, compartmentalised micro-management, incremental and pragmatic adjustment and technocratic problem-solving. RESULTS: There was strong evidence of the dominance of denial of the problem of drug-related deaths, coercive controls, micro-management and reliance on technological solutions in the early years (2015-2018). In some prisons, there developed a move towards the adoption of more pragmatic and incremental policies and push towards comprehensive policies over time. In others, remnants of denial and coercion remained. In our analysis, the focus on new psychoactive substances came to dominate attention, to the relative neglect of other substances and of the contribution of mental and physical illness to these deaths. Staff are not equipped, supported or resourced adequately to deal with the two 'wicked problems' of increasing rates of drug use and mental illness which collide in the prison setting. CONCLUSION: The PPO investigations repeatedly recommend reducing supply and improving monitoring and surveillance and the emergency response. There is less focus on prevention and reducing demand or improving the wider environmental context and culture in which the deaths occur. Policy needs to pay more attention to the fundamental issues driving the current deterioration in conditions in prisons.

Characteristics of children requiring admission to neonatal care and paediatric intensive care before the age of 2 years in England and Wales: a data linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the characteristics of children admitted to neonatal units (NNUs) and paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) before the age of 2 years. DESIGN: A data linkage study of routinely collected data. SETTING: National Health Service NNUs and PICUs in England and Wales PATIENTS: Children born from 2013 to 2018. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Admission to PICU before the age of 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 384 747 babies were admitted to an NNU and 4.8% (n=18 343) were also admitted to PICU before the age of 2 years. Approximately half of all children admitted to PICU under the age of 2 years born in the same time window (n=18 343/37 549) had previously been cared for in an NNU.The main reasons for first admission to PICU were cardiac (n=7138) and respiratory conditions (n=5386). Cardiac admissions were primarily from children born at term (n=5146), while respiratory admissions were primarily from children born preterm (<37 weeks' gestational age, n=3550). A third of children admitted to PICU had more than one admission. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare professionals caring for babies and children in NNU and PICU see some of the same children in the first 2 years of life. While some children are following established care pathways (eg, staged cardiac surgery), the small proportion of children needing NNU care subsequently requiring PICU care account for a large proportion of the total PICU population. These differences may affect perceptions of risk for this group of children between NNU and PICU teams.