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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 865: 161269, 2023 Mar 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36587658

ABSTRACT

Long-term environmental change, sudden pulses of extreme perturbation, or a combination of both can trigger regime shifts by changing the processes and feedbacks which determine community assembly, structure, and function, altering the state of ecosystems. Our understanding of the mechanisms that stabilise against regime shifts or lock communities into altered states is limited, yet also critical to anticipating future states, preventing regime shifts, and reversing unwanted state change. Ocean acidification contributes to the restructuring and simplification of algal systems, however the mechanisms through which this occurs and whether additional drivers are involved requires further study. Using monthly surveys over three years at a shallow-water volcanic seep we examined how the composition of algal communities change seasonally and following periods of significant physical disturbance by typhoons at three levels of ocean acidification (equivalent to means of contemporary ∼350 and future ∼500 and 900 µatm pCO2). Sites exposed to acidification were increasingly monopolised by structurally simple, fast-growing turf algae, and were clearly different to structurally complex macrophyte-dominated reference sites. The distinct contemporary and acidified community states were stabilised and maintained at their respective sites by different mechanisms following seasonal typhoon disturbance. Macroalgal-dominated sites were resistant to typhoon damage. In contrast, significant losses of algal biomass represented a near total ecosystem reset by typhoons for the turf-dominated communities at the elevated pCO2 sites (i.e. negligible resistance). A combination of disturbance and subsequent turf recovery maintained the same simplified state between years (elevated CO2 levels promote turf growth following algal removal, inhibiting macroalgal recruitment). Thus, ocean acidification may promote shifts in algal systems towards degraded ecosystem states, and short-term disturbances which reset successional trajectories may 'lock-in' these alternative states of low structural and functional diversity.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Ecosystem , Seawater/chemistry , Hydrogen-Ion Concentration , Ocean Acidification
2.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36673679

ABSTRACT

There is limited knowledge on the relationship between neighborhood factors and mental health among displaced disaster survivors, particularly among women. Hurricane Katrina (Katrina) was the largest internal displacement in the United States (U.S.), which presented itself as a natural experiment. We examined the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and mental health among women up to 10 years following Katrina (N = 394). We also investigated whether this association was modified by move status, comparing women who were permanently displaced to those who had returned to their pre-Katrina residence. We used hierarchical linear models to measure this association, using data from the American Community Survey and the Gulf Coast Child and Family Health study. Neighborhood SES was created as an index which represented social and economic characteristics of participants' neighborhoods. Mental health was measured using mental component summary (MCS) scores. Increased neighborhood SES was positively associated with mental health after controlling for age, race/ethnicity, economic positioning, time, and move status (19.6, 95% Confidence Interval: 5.8, 33.7). Neighborhood SES and mental health was also modified by move status. These findings underscore the need to better understand the impacts of socioeconomic conditions and health outcomes among women affected by natural disasters.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Mental Health , Female , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Social Class , Survivors/psychology , United States
3.
JAMA Netw Open ; 6(1): e2249937, 2023 01 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36607635

ABSTRACT

Importance: Whether US nursing homes are well prepared for exposure to hurricane-related inundation is uncertain. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of nursing homes exposed to hurricane-related inundation and evaluate whether exposed facilities are more likely to meet Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) emergency preparedness standards. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included CMS-certified nursing homes in Coastal Atlantic and Gulf Coast states from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019. The prevalence of facilities exposed to at least 2 feet of hurricane-related inundation used models from the National Hurricane Center across coastal areas overseen by 5 CMS regional offices: New England, New York metropolitan area, Mid-Atlantic region, Southeast and Eastern Gulf Coast, and Western Gulf Coast. Critical emergency preparedness deficiencies cited during CMS life safety code inspections were identified. Main Outcomes and Measures: The analysis used generalized estimating equations with binomial and negative binomial distributions to evaluate associations between exposure status and the presence and number of critical emergency preparedness deficiencies. Regionally stratified associations (odds ratios [ORs]) and rate ratios [RRs]) with 95% CIs, adjusted for state-level fixed effects and nursing home characteristics, were reported. Results: Of 5914 nursing homes, 617 (10.4%) were at risk of inundation exposure, and 1763 (29.8%) had a critical emergency preparedness deficiency. Exposed facilities were less likely to be rural, were larger, and had similar CMS health inspection, quality, and staffing ratings compared with unexposed facilities. Exposure was positively associated with the presence and number of emergency preparedness deficiencies for the nursing homes within the Mid-Atlantic region (adjusted OR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.15-3.20]; adjusted RR, 2.51 [95% CI, 1.41-4.47]). Conversely, exposure was negatively associated with the number of emergency preparedness deficiencies among facilities within the Western Gulf Coast (aRR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.36-0.86]). The associations for the number of emergency preparedness deficiencies remained after correction for multiple comparisons. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that the association between exposure to hurricane-related inundation and nursing home emergency preparedness differs considerably across the Coastal Atlantic and Gulf regulatory regions. These findings further suggest that there may be opportunities to reduce regional heterogeneity and improve the alignment of nursing home emergency preparedness with surrounding environmental risks.


Subject(s)
Civil Defense , Cyclonic Storms , United States/epidemiology , Aged , Humans , Cross-Sectional Studies , Medicare , Nursing Homes
4.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 60, 2023 01 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36624492

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As the climate continues to warm, hurricanes will continue to increase in both severity and frequency. Hurricane damage is associated with cardiovascular events, but social capital may moderate this relationship. Social capital is a multidimensional concept with a rich theoretical tradition. Simply put, social capital refers to the social relationships and structures that provide individuals with material, financial, and emotional resources throughout their lives. Previous research has found an association between high levels of social capital and lower rates of cardiovascular (CVD) mortality. In post-disaster settings, social capital may protect against CVD mortality by improving access to life-saving resources. We examined the association between county-level hurricane damage and CVD mortality rates after Hurricane Matthew, and the moderating effect of several aspects of social capital and hurricane damage on this relationship. We hypothesized that (1) higher (vs. lower) levels of hurricane damage would be associated with increased CVD mortality rates and (2) in highly damaged counties, higher (vs. lower) levels of social capital would be associated with lower CVD mortality. METHODS: Analysis used yearly (2013-2018) county-level sociodemographic and epidemiological data (n = 183). Sociodemographic data were compiled from federal surveys before and after Hurricane Matthew to construct, per prior literature, a social capital index based on four dimensions of social capital (sub-indices): family unity, informal civil society, institutional confidence, and collective efficacy. Epidemiological data comprised monthly CVD mortality rates constructed from monthly county-level CVD death counts from the CDC WONDER database and the US Census population estimates. Changes in CVD mortality based on level of hurricane damage were assessed using regression adjustment. We used cluster robust Poisson population average models to determine the moderating effect of social capital on CVD mortality rates in both high and low-damage counties. RESULTS: We found that mean levels of CVD mortality increased (before and after adjustment for sociodemographic controls) in both low-damage counties (unadjusted. Mean = 2.50, 95% CI [2.41, 2.59], adjusted mean = 2.50, 95% CI [2.40, 2.72]) and high-damage counties (mean = 2.44, CI [2.29, 2.46], adj. Mean = 2.51, 95% CI [2.49, 2.84]). Among the different social capital dimensions, institutional confidence was associated with reduced initial CVD mortality in low-damage counties (unadj. IRR 1.00, 95% CI [0.90, 1.11], adj. IRR 0.91 CI [0.87, 0.94]), but its association with CVD mortality trends was null. The overall effects of social capital and its sub-indices were largely nonsignificant. CONCLUSION: Hurricane damage is associated with increased CVD mortality for 18 months after Hurricane Matthew. The role of social capital remains unclear. Future research should focus on improving measurement of social capital and quality of hurricane damage and CVD mortality data.


Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Cyclonic Storms , Disasters , Social Capital , Humans , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Surveys and Questionnaires
5.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36674050

ABSTRACT

"Big events", such as wars, economic crises, pandemics, or natural disasters, affect the risk environment in which people use drugs. While the impact of big events on injection risk behaviors and access to drug-treatment services is well documented, less is known about the effects of big events on drug markets. Based on self-reporting data on drug availability among people who use drugs (PWUD) in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico and during the COVID-19 lockdown in a Midwestern US state, this study aims to document the effects of big events on drug markets. Qualitative data on the effects of Hurricane Maria on drug markets are based on participants' self-reporting (N = 31). Data collection started after the hurricane and ended in 2020. Data on changes to the drug supply during the COVID-19 lockdown were collected based on semi-structured interviews with PWUD (N = 40) in a Midwestern US state. Findings show that while the drug markets might have initially been affected by big events, most effects were temporary. Drug availability, pricing, and quality might have suffered some initial fluctuations but stabilized as the drug markets absorbed the initial shocks caused by the hurricane and the lockdown measures. In preparation for increasingly more frequent and virulent pandemics and natural disasters, health infrastructures should be strengthened to prevent not only overdose episodes and deaths but also drug-related harms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cyclonic Storms , Natural Disasters , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Puerto Rico , Government
6.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36674273

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This two-study paper developed a climate change risk perception model that considers the role of posttraumatic growth (i.e., a reappraisal of life priorities and deeper appreciation of life), resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping, and social support. METHOD: In Study 1, participants were 332 persons in the Philippines who experienced Super Typhoon Haiyan. In Study 2, participants were 709 persons in Fiji who experienced Cyclone Winston. Climate change can increase the size and destructive potential of cyclones and typhoons as a result of warming ocean temperatures, which provides fuel for these storms. Participants completed measures assessing resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping, social support, posttraumatic growth, and climate change risk perception. RESULTS: Structural equation modeling was used to develop a climate change risk perception model with data collected in the Philippines and to confirm the model with data collected in Fiji. The model showed that climate change risk perception was influenced by resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping activation, and posttraumatic growth. The model developed in the Philippines was confirmed with data collected in Fiji. CONCLUSIONS: Posttraumatic growth played a central role in climate change risk perception. Public health educational efforts should focus on vividly showing how climate change threatens life priorities and that which gives life meaning and can result in loss, stress, and hardship. Disaster response organizations may also use this approach to promote preparedness for disaster threats.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Posttraumatic Growth, Psychological , Humans , Philippines/epidemiology , Climate Change , Fiji/epidemiology , Perception
7.
Am J Hum Biol ; 35(1): e23846, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36484299

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: A male is less adaptable to biological stressors than a female fetus with consequent higher morbidity and mortality. Adverse birth outcomes increase and male livebirths decrease after environmental disasters, economic crises, and terrorist events. We hypothesized the ratio of male to female livebirths would decrease in areas affected by severe tropical cyclones (TCs) in Queensland, Australia. Additionally, in male livebirths, there would be an increase in preterm and low birthweight births. Lastly, we hypothesized that the pregnancy stage at which exposure occurred would modify the association between TC exposure and observed outcomes. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis was used to analyze Queensland administrative birth records from July 2007 to June 2018 for significant changes in the sex ratio at birth, measured as the proportion of male livebirths. Adjusted generalized linear models were fitted to births in areas affected by two category five TCs: cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Marcia (February 2015). To explore male mortality and morbidity risk, additional analysis was conducted on the proportion of male stillborn, low birthweight, and preterm births. The association between estimated pregnancy stage during the TC and the proportion of male births was also analyzed. RESULTS: Contrary to our hypothesis, increases in the proportion of male livebirths were observed following early-pregnancy exposure to cyclone Yasi and mid-pregnancy exposure to Marcia, although the latter was not statistically significant. No significant changes were observed in proportions of male stillborn, low birthweight, and preterm births. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a significant association between severe TCs and sex ratio at birth. The stage of pregnancy at which maternal stressors were experienced modified this association. Among people exposed in early to mid-pregnancy, the proportion of male births was higher. This may be because of differential loss of females in utero. Studying sex differences in birth outcomes provides insight into in utero vulnerabilities associated with environmental stressors. Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. Understanding fetal vulnerability to environmental stressors will provide crucial information supporting early life health interventions that mitigate the immediate and long-term effects.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Premature Birth , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Male , Birth Weight , Queensland/epidemiology , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , Australia , Stillbirth
8.
Am J Hum Biol ; 35(1): e23847, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36507656

ABSTRACT

Natural disasters represent major stressors, resulting in psychological distress and physiological responses such as increased cortisol. During pregnancy, this impacts not only maternal well-being, but also fetal development. In 2018, Hurricane Florence caused extensive damage across the eastern United States. Studies indicated that compared to married pregnant women, unmarried pregnant women had higher risk of distress. Here we assess hair cortisol among a subsample of participants, and variations based on marital status. METHODS: We analyzed multiple stress measures among 37 participants who were pregnant during Hurricane Florence. We used questionnaires modeled on previous studies to assess hardship associated with the hurricane, psychological distress, sociodemographic characteristics, social support, and food security. We analyzed cortisol concentrations in proximal and distal hair sections, representing stress around the time of the disaster (distal) and 3-4 months following the disaster (proximal). We used linear regression to test relationships between hair cortisol and self-report stress measures, and variations based on marital status. RESULTS: Self-report measures of distress and hardship were similar among married and unmarried participants. Mean cortisol levels in distal and proximal sections were higher among unmarried participants. Controlling for confounding variables, hardship was not associated with hair cortisol. Distress predicted cortisol in distal sections (ß = .482, p = .018), with a trend for proximal sections (ß = .368, p = .055). Marital status was a significant predictor of distal (ß = .388, p = .027) and proximal (ß = .333, p = .047) hair cortisol, explaining 8.6%-11.7% of unique variance. CONCLUSIONS: Preexisting and intersecting risk factors likely place unmarried pregnant individuals at risk of stress during and following a disaster.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Pregnant Women , Pregnancy , Female , Humans , Hydrocortisone , Linear Models , Hair , Stress, Psychological/psychology
9.
Environ Res ; 216(Pt 3): 114709, 2023 01 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36343709

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Climate change (CC) has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Although health care facilities (HCF) play a central role in the care of populations, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the impact of CC on HCF. The objective of our study was to highlight the components of HCFs affected by CC through a mapping review of the literature. METHODS: To meet our objective, we first assessed the place of HCFs in relation to CC in the scientific literature and in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Bibliometric data from the PubMed database were analyzed between 1979 and 2021 to assess the penetration of keywords on CC alone, and in relation to health and HCF in particular. Second, we analyzed the changes in HCF keywords in the IPCC reports. Finally, we conducted a mapping review in five databases, of the international scientific literature published between 1979 and 2019, and identified the components of HCF affected by CC using the Ishikawa diagram. RESULTS: From the 2000s, the number of publications on CC and HCF increased gradually with 137 articles in 2005, and even more sharply since 2008 with 358 articles published and 813 in 2021. Even though CC is only recently present in the biomedical literature, all climatic events (warming and heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms, hurricanes and cyclones, floods and sea-level rise, and other indirect effects) have had an impact on at least one component of HCF. CONCLUSION: HCFs are already impacted, in all their components, by CC. By enhancing our understanding of the impacts of CC on HCF, this work could contribute to the engagement of health professionals in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions, thereby limiting the consequences of CC on patient care.


Subject(s)
Climate Change , Cyclonic Storms , Humans , Floods , Risk Assessment , Delivery of Health Care
10.
Sci Total Environ ; 806(Pt 2): 150598, 2022 Feb 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34597537

ABSTRACT

This longitudinal flood-relief study assessed the impact of the March 2019 Cyclone Idai flood event on E. coli contamination of hand-pumped boreholes in Mulanje District, Malawi. It established the microbiological water-quality safety of 279 community supplies over three phases, each comprising water-quality survey, rehabilitation and treatment verification monitoring. Phase 1 contamination three months after Idai was moderate, but likely underestimated. Increased contamination in Phase 2 at 9 months and even greater in Phase 3, a year after Idai was surprising and concerning, with 40% of supplies then registering E. coli contamination and 20% of supplies deemed 'unsafe'. Without donor support for follow-up interventions, this would have been missed by a typical single-phase flood-relief activity. Contamination rebound at boreholes successfully treated months earlier signifies a systemic problem from persistent sources intensified by groundwater levels likely at a decade high. Problem extent in normal, or drier years is unknown due to absence of routine monitoring of water point E. coli in Malawi. Statistical analysis was not conclusive, but was indicative of damaged borehole infrastructure and increased near-borehole pit-latrine numbers being influential. Spatial analysis including groundwater flow-field definition (an overlooked sector opportunity) revealed 'hit-and-miss' contamination of safe and unsafe boreholes in proximity. Hydrogeological control was shown by increased contamination near flood-affected area and in more recent recharge groundwater otherwise of good quality. Pit latrines are presented as credible e-coli sources in a conceptual model accounting for heterogeneous borehole contamination, wet season influence and rebound behavior. Critical to establish are groundwater level - flow direction, hand-pump plume draw, multiple footprint latrine sources - 'skinny' plumes, borehole short-circuiting and fast natural pathway (e.g. fracture flow) and other source influences. Concerted WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) sector investment in research and policy driving national water point based E. coli monitoring programs are advocated.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Groundwater , Escherichia coli , Floods , Water Supply
11.
Afr J Prim Health Care Fam Med ; 14(1): e1-e4, 2022 Dec 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36546498

ABSTRACT

In the third week of January 2022, the southern districts of Malawi were hit by Cyclone Ana. The worst affected areas were Chikwawa and Nsanje. Four weeks following Cyclone Ana, a rather smaller cyclone, Dumako, hit the same areas, causing more damage. The Partners in Health or Abwenzi Pa Za Umoyo, an international humanitarian nongovernmental organisation that provides primary health care (PHC), organised teams to join Chikwawa District Council - Health, providing PHC assistance in the most affected district (Chikwawa); these teams were joined by three senior residents in family medicine from Kamuzu University of Health Sciences.Contribution: From the experiences of the interventions reported here, it was learnt that a multidisciplinary team of PHC providers is the key to the success of the emergency PHC programmes in times of natural disasters. While immediate PHC may be important at the actual time of disaster, it was learnt that PHC is also very important for continuation of care for chronic conditions, antenatal clinics and other clinics that are interrupted by the disaster. The experiences emphasised the importance of involving the PHC physicians and other PHC cadres in planning PHC programmes in natural disaster-prone areas.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Humans , Female , Pregnancy , Malawi
12.
J Emerg Manag ; 20(6): 561-580, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36523197

ABSTRACT

Emergency educational programing after disasters contributes to the physical, cognitive, and psychological protection of students when they are at their most vulnerable. The Inter-Agency Network for Education in Emergencies Minimum Standards for Education in Emergencies framework details the need to incorporate specific domains throughout implementation and asserts that teachers and educational institutions play a significant role in supporting disaster-affected youth in the classroom. Following the detrimental impact of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico, teachers became critical agents for maintaining the well-being of children at school, so the goals of this analysis are to (1) examine teachers' post-hurricane experiences to find out how the event impacted physical teaching environments and students' learning capacity, (2) investigate how teachers adapted and developed lesson plans to facilitate students' processing of the event, and (3) explore what resources, training, and emotional support teachers needed to continue their work in the classroom post-disaster. Findings reveal how teachers assumed the role of first responders to restore their physical learning spaces, improvised classroom activities, and discussions to aid in students' cognitive and emotional recovery, and found ways to navigate and address the psychological needs of learners following this traumatic event. This research will contribute to an increased understanding of how teachers can be utilized to enhance students' recovery through the successful implementation of emergency educational programing.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Disasters , Child , Adolescent , Humans , Emergencies , Students/psychology , Schools
14.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 22(1): 947, 2022 Dec 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36528572

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Hurricanes Irma and Maria made landfall in the US Virgin Islands (USVI) in 2017. To date, there is no published literature available on the experiences of pregnant women in the USVI exposed to these hurricanes. Understanding how hurricanes affect pregnant women is key to developing and executing targeted hurricane preparedness and response policies. The purpose of this study was to explore the experiences of pregnancy and birth among women in the USVI exposed to Hurricanes Irma and Maria. METHODS: We employed a qualitative descriptive methodology to guide sampling, data collection, and analysis. Semi-structured interviews of 30-60 min in length were conducted with a purposive sample of women (N = 18) in the USVI who were pregnant during or became pregnant within two months after the hurricanes. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and data managed in MAXQDA. Team members developed a codebook, applied codes for content, and reconciled discrepancies. We thematically categorized text according to a socioecological conceptual framework of risk and resilience for maternal-neonatal health following hurricane exposure. RESULTS: Women's experiences were organized into two main categories (risk and resilience). We identified the following themes related to risk at 3 socioecological levels including: (1) individual: changes in food access (We had to go without) and stress (I was supposed to be relaxing); (2) household/community: diminished psychosocial support (Everyone was dealing with their own things) and the presence of physical/environmental hazards (I was really scared); and (3) maternity system: compromised care capacity (The hospital was condemned). The themes related to resilience included: (1) individual: personal coping strategies (Being calm); (2) household/community: mutual psychosocial and tangible support (We shared our resources); and (3) the maternity system: continuity of high-quality care (On top of their game). CONCLUSIONS: A socioecological approach provides a useful framework to understand how risk and resilience influence the experience of maternal hurricane exposure. As the frequency of the most intense hurricanes is expected to increase, clinicians, governments, and health systems should work collaboratively to implement hurricane preparedness and response plans that address pregnant women's unique needs and promote optimal maternal-infant health.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Infant, Newborn , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Pregnant Women/psychology , United States Virgin Islands , Qualitative Research , Quality of Health Care
15.
An Acad Bras Cienc ; 94(suppl 4): e20200797, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36541969

ABSTRACT

An analysis of explosive cyclone cases was produced by comparing the reanalysis of MERRA-2 (high spatial resolution) and NCEP2 (low spatial resolution) to South Atlantic in the 2014-2015 period. A total of 51 cases were found, of which 49 were detected by the first reanalysis and 33 by the second (2 cases identified by NCEP2 were not identified by MERRA-2). Spring was the dominant season in the formation of the cases in both reanalyses. It was observed that most systems are formed preferentially eastward of a preexisting trough at higher levels, while others are formed under an almost zonal upper airstream. This difference is more evident in the NCEP2. It was also diagnosed that the MERRA-2 shows more clearly the diffluence in the 250 hPa flow. The analysis of the composite fields revealed a negative horizontal tilt of the trough in 500 hPa, influenced by intense convection as the system develops. Besides, it pointed to a more pronounced jet stream in intense explosive cyclones and more prominent diffluence in non-intense cases. Since the NCEP2 reanalysis detected fewer cases (and only 2 intense) than MERRA-2, it was considered that the former is less suited to the analysis of this type of event.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Seasons
16.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 7746, 2022 12 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36517474

ABSTRACT

The vast tropical Pacific is home to the majority of tropical cyclones (TCs) which threaten the rim countries every year. The TC genesis is nourished by warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). During El Niño, the western Pacific warm pool extends eastward. However, the number of TCs does not increase significantly with the expanding warm pool and it remains comparable between El Niño and La Niña. Here, we show that the subsurface heat content change counteracts the favorable SSTs in the tropical central-north Pacific. Due to the anomalous positive wind stress curl, the 26 °C isotherm shoals during El Niño over this region and the heat content diminishes in the tropical central-north Pacific, even though warm SST anomalies prevail. This negative correlation between SST and 26 °C isotherm depth anomalies is opposite to the positive correlation in the tropical eastern and western Pacific. This is critical because quantifying the dynamics of the subsurface ocean provides insight into TC genesis. The trend in TC genesis continues to be debated. Future projections must account for the net effect of the surface-subsurface dynamics on TCs, especially given the expected El Niño-like pattern over the tropical Pacific under global warming.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , El Nino-Southern Oscillation , Global Warming , Wind , Hot Temperature
17.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 21363, 2022 Dec 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36494402

ABSTRACT

Microseism is the continuous background seismic signal caused by the interaction between the atmosphere, the hydrosphere and the solid Earth. Several studies have dealt with the relationship between microseisms and the tropical cyclones, but none focused on the small-scale tropical cyclones that occur in the Mediterranean Sea, called Medicanes. In this work, we analysed the Medicane Apollo which impacted the eastern part of Sicily during the period 25 October-5 November 2021 causing heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and violent sea waves. We investigated the microseism accompanying this extreme Mediterranean weather event, and its relationship with the sea state retrieved from hindcast maps and wave buoys. The spectral and amplitude analyses showed the space-time variation of the microseism amplitude. In addition, we tracked the position of Apollo during the time using two different methods: (i) a grid search method; (ii) an array analysis. We obtained a good match between the real position of Apollo and the location constraint by both methods. This work shows that it is possible to extract information on Medicanes from microseisms for both research and monitoring purposes.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Wind , Atmosphere , Mediterranean Sea , Sicily
18.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0277539, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36378666

ABSTRACT

As one of the severe natural disasters, typhoon hazard brings tremendous tragedy to human beings. The foreland in the southeast of China is one of the most typhoon prone areas in the world. There are amount of damage of civil engineering structures induced by typhoon every year. Especially for the spacious villages, the low-rise buildings are vulnerable to typhoon so that many of them are destroyed regionally. The typhoon vulnerability assessment of civil engineering structures is a classical multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) issues. In this paper, the 2-tuple linguistic neutrosophic number grey relational analysis (2TLNN-GRA) method is built based on the grey relational analysis (GRA) and 2-tuple linguistic neutrosophic sets (2TLNSs) with incomplete weight information. For deriving the weight information of the attribute, an optimization model is built on the basis of the GRA, by which the attribute weights can be decided. Then, the optimal alternative is chosen through calculating largest relative relational degree from the 2-tuple linguistic neutrosophic number positive ideal solution (2TLNNPIS) which considers both the largest grey relational coefficient (GRC) from the 2TLNNPIS and the smallest GRC form 2-tuple linguistic neutrosophic number negative ideal solution (2TLNN NIS). Then, combine the traditional fuzzy GRA model with 2TLNNSs information, the 2TLNN-GRA method is established and the computing steps for MAGDM are built. Finally, a numerical example for typhoon vulnerability assessment of civil engineering structures has been given and some comparisons is used to illustrate advantages of 2TLNN-GRA method.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Humans , Linguistics/methods , Decision Making , China
19.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 6746, 2022 Nov 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36347839

ABSTRACT

Early forecasts give people in a storm's path time to prepare. Less is known about the cost to society when forecasts are incorrect. In this observational study, we examine over 700,000 births in the path of Hurricane Irene and find exposure was associated with impaired birth outcomes. Additional warning time was associated with decreased preterm birth rates for women who experienced intense storm exposures documenting a benefit of avoiding a type II forecasting error. A larger share of this at-risk population experienced a type I forecasting error where severe physical storm impacts were anticipated but not experienced. Disaster anticipation disrupted healthcare services by delaying and canceling prenatal care, which may contribute to storm-impacted birth outcomes. Recognizing storm damages depend on human responses to predicted storm paths is critical to supporting the next generation's developmental potential with judicious forecasts that ensure public warning systems mitigate rather than exacerbate climate damages.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Disasters , Premature Birth , Pregnancy , Infant, Newborn , Female , Humans , Premature Birth/epidemiology , Forecasting , Risk Factors
20.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 2083, 2022 11 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36380330

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coinciding with the rising non-communicable disease (NCD) prevalence worldwide is the increasing frequency and severity of natural hazards. Protecting populations with NCDs against natural hazards is ever more pressing given their increased risk of morbidity and mortality in disaster contexts. This investigation examined Hurricane Maria's impacts across ten lower SES municipalities in Puerto Rico with varying community characteristics and hurricane impacts to understand experiences of supporting individuals with NCD management in the six-month period following the hurricane. METHODS: We conducted 40 qualitative interviews with mayors, first responders, faith leaders, community leaders, and municipal employees from 10 municipalities in Puerto Rico. Using QSR NVivo software, we deductively and inductively coded interview transcripts and undertook thematic analysis to characterize community-level hurricane impact and consequences for NCD management, and to identify convergent and divergent themes. RESULTS: Damages to infrastructure, including healthcare facilities and roadways, complicated the provision of timely health care for NCDs, patient transport, and pharmaceutical/medical supply chain continuity. Lengthy power outages at both healthcare facilities and private residences were barriers to healthcare service delivery, use of medical equipment, and storage of prescription medications with refrigeration, and led to a widespread mental health crisis. Cascading failures such as fuel shortages further compounded these challenges. The consequences of these impacts included the reported exacerbation of health conditions and loss of life among NCD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings identify contributors to morbidity and mortality among individuals with NCDs following Hurricane Maria. With the growing frequency of catastrophic disasters from natural hazards, the experiences of communities that endured these impacts offer important lessons regarding policies and practices to better support community disaster resilience and address the evolving preparedness needs of NCD patients.


Subject(s)
Cyclonic Storms , Disasters , Noncommunicable Diseases , Humans , Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology , Puerto Rico/epidemiology , Delivery of Health Care
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