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1.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 63, 2023 Jan 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36627329

ABSTRACT

Great earthquakes along the Nankai megathrust in south-western Japan feature in the top priority list of Japan's disaster management agenda. In May 2019, an alert system was incepted to issue public warnings when the probability of an earthquake occurrence along the Nankai megathrust became higher than usual. One of the cases that trigger the issuance of public warnings is when a great earthquake occurred and another one of the same scale is anticipated within a short period of time. Although such "twin ruptures" have occurred multiple times along the Nankai megathrust, the quantification of the probability of such twin ruptures has never been attempted. Based on global statistics and local earthquake occurrence history, we estimated the probability of a successive occurrence of two M8 or larger earthquakes within 3 years globally and along the Nankai megathrust to be 5.0-18% and 4.3-96%, respectively. The timing of the second earthquake followed the Omori-Utsu law in global statistics, which allowed the estimation of the probability for the successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakes in arbitrary time frames. The predicted probability for the one-week timeframe was 100-3600-fold higher than that of the norm, endorsing the necessity for the warning scheme.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Earthquakes , Japan
2.
BMC Emerg Med ; 23(1): 6, 2023 Jan 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36683030

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Incident management systems and disaster planning processes facilitate maximal use of available resources. Evaluation of the Incident Command System (ICS) is one of the top five key areas of research priority in the field of surge. The study was aimed at assessing the disaster preparedness and ICS of the public healthcare institutions for the disaster management in a disaster-prone district of Sri Lanka. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among all public sector healthcare institutions (n = 74), including curative-healthcare institutions (n = 46) which have inward-care facilities for patient care and preventive healthcare institutions (n = 28) in Kurunegala district, Sri Lanka from May-September 2019 using a validated interviewer administered questionnaire which was based on 'CO-S-TR Model' for ICS assessment including 'Clear need for increased capacity (≤25%), Basic level (26 - 50%), Moderate level (51 - 75%) and High level (>75%)'. RESULTS: Focal points for disaster management were nominated by the majority of the curative sector (n = 33; 76.7%) and preventive sector (n = 19; 73.1%) healthcare institutions. A written disaster preparedness and response plans were available in 72% (n= 31) curative sector and 76% (n= 19) preventive sector institutions. The higher proportion of the curative sector institutions had moderate level capacity in the area of providing treatment, and basic level capacities were in the areas of 'staff mobilization, coordination of activities, supplying of special needs, triage of cases and transportation'. There is a clear need for improvement in the areas of communication commanding, management of controlling the incidence and tracking of the cases in the curative sector. The majority of the preventive sector institutions had moderate level capacity in commanding, control, coordination and tracking of cases. The basic level capacity in the areas of staff mobilization, stuff management and triage of cases. There is a clear need for improvement in the areas of communication in preventive sector. Of the public sector healthcare institutions, the higher proportion of the preventive sector (n = 20; 76.9%) and curative sector (n = 29; 67.4%) had basic level overall surge capacity of ICS for disaster management. CONCLUSION: Coordination, communication, commanding, management of controlling the incidence and tracking of cases following outbreaks need to be improved and capacity development programmes could implement to develop the preparedness for future disasters.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , Sri Lanka/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Incidence , Delivery of Health Care
3.
Appl Ergon ; 108: 103948, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36621184

ABSTRACT

Teams are critical in developing effective responses to various disasters and crises. This study defines a new type of response team: a disaster intervention development team, charged with rapidly developing emergent and innovative interventions to aid disaster response. In this case study, we analyzed the SHIELD Enterprise, a disaster intervention development team that developed and deployed a diagnostic testing system for community surveillance and diagnosis to respond to the COVID-19 infectious disease outbreak. We conducted interviews with 27 team members to identify the work system barriers and facilitators they experienced and to analyze the influence on team performance to inform sociotechnical system design for future teams. We identified 215 barriers and 238 facilitators, which we inductively categorized into eight overarching groups, i.e., categories, that included ambiguity, team processes, technology, design and project requirements, knowledge and expertise, organization, task work and environment. Our findings led to eight sociotechnical system design principles to support future disaster intervention development teams.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control
4.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36673708

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to identify factors influencing disaster preparedness capability, measure and compare the relative importance of evaluation indicators of preparedness capability in a rainstorm disaster, and analyze the impact of these factors on disaster preparedness so as to improve disaster preparedness capability. The evaluation model was proposed by constructing the target level (the first level) as an indicator system; this was divided into four indicators (the second level): planning, organization, equipment, and education and exercise, and 14 tertiary evaluation indicators (the third level). The validity of the evaluation index system was demonstrated, and the weight of each level was calculated using the Analytic Hierarchical Process and expert survey methods, taking the example of the Zhengzhou "7.20" rainstorm to conduct an empirical analysis of the proposed model. The weak points of disaster preparedness capability were identified. The empirical analysis revealed that organization scored the highest, followed by planning, equipment, and education and exercise, indicating the lack of disaster management equipment and resources, disaster management training, and exercise and public emergency safety education. These results will help in future decision-making, as they provide a clear understanding of what needs to be done to improve disaster preparedness capability.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Local Government , Educational Status
5.
Sci Prog ; 106(1): 368504231152770, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36691679

ABSTRACT

Cities are vulnerable to a range of disasters that can occur simultaneously due to their complexity. Therefore, an effective disaster response plan is needed to reduce the disaster vulnerability of cities. In particular, evacuation route management is important for reducing the losses from a disaster. Efficient disaster response can be realized by searching for suitable evacuation routes and effective road network management. In this paper, we propose a disaster response framework based on a multilayered road network structure and evacuation routes based on our road network. The suggested road structure consists of three layers for the effective management of the network. An A* algorithm-based search for multiple evacuation routes under different conditions in response to an individual disaster on the configured road map provides a safe route for evacuees. As a result, the damage caused by disasters in urban areas can be ameliorated.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters
6.
Br J Gen Pract ; 73(727): 51, 2023 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36702600
7.
Curr Sports Med Rep ; 22(1): 4-9, 2023 Jan 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36606629

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: Few sports medicine physicians have extensive experience in managing mass casualty trauma. Yet many, or most, of us find ourselves covering competitions, races, and events in venues where thousands of athletes and spectators gather, and these could quickly become mass casualty events in the setting of an explosion/bombing, active shooter, or similar incident. When this happens, the sports medicine team, already on site, is in a unique position to provide immediate assistance until additional resources arrive. In this article, we will discuss a framework for this initial trauma response to the mass casualty event at a mass participation sporting event.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Mass Casualty Incidents , Sports Medicine , Sports , Humans , Triage
8.
Nurse Educ ; 48(1): E21-E24, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35763780

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Disaster planning is an essential component for nursing students to learn. PROBLEM: Clinical experiences of disasters are typically unavailable for nursing students. Increasing frequency of disaster events around the globe has made disaster planning knowledge and skills a critical component in nursing education and professional practice. APPROACH: An unfolding tabletop disaster planning exercise was created as a simulation training strategy meant to strengthen essential disaster response skills. The exercise involves 5 realistic scenarios related to a mass casualty event, taking students from the disaster site to the hospital-based disaster response. OUTCOMES: Implementation of a tabletop disaster planning simulation in one nursing program replaced the traditional lecture-based disaster content. CONCLUSION: An unfolding tabletop disaster planning simulation is a comprehensive, interactive, sustainable, and low-cost teaching strategy that draws on nursing students' fundamental knowledge. Students had the opportunity to practice clinical skills required during a disaster, such as communication, prioritization, teamwork, and delegation.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Simulation Training , Students, Nursing , Humans , Nursing Education Research , Clinical Competence
9.
Comput Inform Nurs ; 40(12): 836-840, 2022 Dec 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36516034

ABSTRACT

Disasters, whether man-made or natural, are increasing in frequency and causing damage to the environment and injuring and killing significant numbers of people resulting in billions of dollars in economic losses. Physical, behavioral, social, and environmental well-being is the cornerstone of a community's resilience, because the ultimate outcome to any threat lies with the health and well-being of its citizens. The ability to utilize those assets, as it strengthens, enables the community to withstand, adapt, and recover from disasters. Big Data can be a significant resource upon which decisions and preparations can be made to facilitate communities preparing for disasters. Big Data and artificial intelligence can be used to analyze previous disasters, examine lessons learned, and evaluate other data resources, such as remote sensors, to provide a foundation for predicting future events, resulting in more effective planning and cost-effective disaster response. This article examines the role of Big Data and artificial intelligence in building community resilience, so communities have the ability/capacity to adapt and recover effectively from disasters.


Subject(s)
Civil Defense , Disaster Planning , Resilience, Psychological , Humans , Public Health , Big Data , Artificial Intelligence
10.
Przegl Epidemiol ; 76(3): 330-335, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36520080

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In the present times, natural and man-made threats have questioned our existence on this planet. Health care professionals need to be aware of all the procedures to follow during such an event that threatens to paralyze the entire community and should be able to respond effectively. OBJECTIVE: The present study was conducted to assess the willingness and attitude of dental professionals to render help during any disaster or catastrophic event. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The present cross-sectional study among 480 subjects who were residing in Tricity (Chandigarh, Mohali and Panchkula). Informed consent was taken from all the subjects. Systematic random sampling methodology was employed for selection for study sample. The study utilized a self-designed close-ended questionnaire written in English and verified by experts. The questionnaire was divided into two parts to collect the required information. The data was analyzed using SPSS software version 21; chi-square test and multiple regression analysis were used to arrive at the results. RESULTS: More than 85% of subjects had awareness regarding natural and manmade disasters. A positive response was given by 79.2% of subjects regarding willingness to help during disaster. Educational qualification of subjects was significantly associated with attitude towards some aspects of disaster response (p<0.05). Postgraduate subjects and subjects who were academicians were more willing to render help (OR: 2.18 & 3.65 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The study emphasizes the need for educational and training programs for dentists' regarding disaster management. A short course on emergency and disaster management can be included in undergraduate and postgraduate dental curriculum.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , Cross-Sectional Studies , Dentists , Attitude of Health Personnel , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Poland , Surveys and Questionnaires
11.
J Spec Oper Med ; 22(4): 60-64, 2022 Dec 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36525014

ABSTRACT

On October 10, 2019, the Loudoun County Sheriff's Office (LCSO) and Loudoun County Fire and Rescue (LCFR) led one of the largest act of violence (AVI) exercises ever conducted in Loudoun County, Virginia. Over 300 participants and 50 role-players participated across 15 county departments and agencies within Loudoun County. The exercise identified an important recommendation: "future joint unified command trainings are needed throughout the fire and law enforcement command structures." Effective, unified command is an essential NFPA 3000 principle of responding to an AVI. "The success or failure of the response will hinge on the quality of unified command." After-action reports from AVIs across the United States emphasized the importance of unified command. A second exercise recommendation proposed "a joint AVI unified command competency scenario between LCFR and LCSO should be developed and delivered across all levels of supervision... this scenario should demonstrate 'best practices' for establishing and operating unified command between LCFR and LCSO." The authors developed two active shooter command competency simulations that require LCSO and LCFR to form unified command and manage the initial response. The simulations reinforced accepted response practices, such as identification of cold/warm/hot zones, early unified command, rescue task force team deployment, and protected corridor establishment. The simulations were packaged into a unified command competency training and simulation program. Through the facilitated debriefings with participants and facilitator debriefs, three types of lessons learned were identified: 1) high threat incident response lessons, 2) lessons for conducting AVIs in the command competency lab, and 3) active threat operational considerations for command officers.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Law Enforcement , Humans , United States
12.
Am J Disaster Med ; 17(2): 131-142, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36494887

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This simulation exercise was conducted to test the functionality of the hospital incident command system, triage, treatment areas, and external coordination and communication. DESIGN: This was an observational study. Coordination, logistic, technical design, staging, and evaluation of the exercise were planned for the exercise. The exercise was conducted in six hospitals. Observations were recorded, and a validated checklist was used to score. SETTING: This was a semisurprise exercise in the hospital setup. PARTICIPANTS: Simulated patients and moulage were used for the exercise. INTERVENTION: Full-scale simulation exercise. MAIN OUTCOME: Gaps in knowledge and skills were identified in the running incident command center, skills of patient transferal from ambulance to triage area, and external coordination. RESULT: Out of a total score of 220 in the evaluation sheet, the mean score was 161 ± 3.2 (73.2 percent) and the median score was 161.5. CONCLUSION: Hospital incident command system, triaging, and patient transferal are the areas that can be improved in the future.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Mass Casualty Incidents , Humans , Triage , Computer Simulation , Hospitals
13.
Am J Disaster Med ; 17(2): 101-115, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36494881

ABSTRACT

Since the events of 9/11, a concerted interagency effort has been undertaken to create comprehensive emergency planning and preparedness strategies for the management of a radiological or nuclear event in the US. These planning guides include protective action guidelines, medical countermeasure recommendations, and systems for diagnosing and triaging radiation injury. Yet, key areas such as perception of risk from radiation exposure by first responders have not been addressed. In this study, we identify the need to model and develop new strategies for medical management of large-scale population exposures to radiation and examine the phenomena of radiation dread and its role in emergency response using an agent-based modeling approach. Using the computational modeling platform NetLogo, we developed a series of models examining factors affecting first responders' willingness to work (WTW) in the context of entering areas where radioactive contamination is present or triaging individuals potentially contaminated with radioactive materials. In these models, the presence of radiation subject matter experts (SMEs) was found to increase WTW. Degree of communication was found to be a dynamic variable with either positive or negative effects on WTW dependent on the initial WTW demographics of the test population. Our findings illustrate that radiation dread is a significant confounder for emergency response to radiological or nuclear events and that increasing the presence of radiation SME in the field and communication among first responders when such radiation SMEs are present will help mitigate the effect of radiation dread and improve first responder WTW during future radiological or nuclear events.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Emergency Responders , Radiation Exposure , Radiation Injuries , Radioactive Hazard Release , Humans , Radiation Injuries/prevention & control , Communication
14.
Am J Disaster Med ; 17(2): 171-184, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36494888

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To review the literature on the effects seen after disaster on those with poor social determinants of health (SDOH) and individual social needs. DESIGN: The Disaster Preparedness and Response Committee of the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) formed a work group to study healthcare disparities seen in disaster. This group was composed of six physicians on the committee, all of whom have extensive background in disaster medicine and the chair of the committee. A systematic literature review regarding past disasters and all the healthcare disparities seen was undertaken with the goal of organizing this information in one broad concise document looking at multiple disasters over history. The group reviewed multiple documents regarding SDOH and individual social needs for a complete understanding of these factors. Then, a topic list of healthcare disparities resulting from these factors was composed. This list was then filled out with subtopics falling under the header topics. Each member of the workgroup took one of these topics of healthcare disparity seen in disasters and completed a literature search. The databases reviewed include PubMed Central, Google Scholar, and Medline. The terms queried were disaster, healthcare disparities, disaster healthcare disparities, healthcare disparities associated with disasters, SDOH and disaster, special populations and disaster effects, and vulnerable populations and disaster effects. Each author chose articles they felt were most representative and demonstrative of the healthcare disparities seen in past disasters. These social determinant factors and individual social needs were then cross referenced in relation to past disasters for both their causes and the effect they had on various populations after disaster. This was presented to the ACEP board as a committee report. RESULTS: All the SDOH and individual social needs showed significant negative effects for the populations when combined with a disaster event. These SDOH cut across age, race, and gender affecting a wide swath of people. Previous disaster planning either did not plan or under planned for these marginalized populations during disaster events. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in healthcare are a pervasive problem that effects many different groups. Disasters magnify and more fully expose these healthcare disparities. We have explored the healthcare disparities with past disasters. These disparities, although common, can be mitigated. The recognition of these poor determinants of health can lead to better and more comprehensive disaster planning for future disasters. Subsequent research is needed to explore these healthcare disparities exacerbated by disasters and to find methods for their mitigation.


Subject(s)
Disaster Medicine , Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , Surveys and Questionnaires , Delivery of Health Care
15.
Am J Disaster Med ; 17(2): 117-125, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36494882

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Evidence suggests that people of color, especially African Americans and non-White Hispanics, residing in low-income communities are the most vulnerable to natural disasters. This study assessed individual level of self-perceived disaster preparedness, disaster response actions, and sociodemographic predictors of disaster preparedness among older minority adults in Houston, Texas. METHOD: Working with Houston-area community-based organizations and senior-living centers, a cross-sectional survey, available in English and Spanish, was disseminated between November 2020 and January 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred and twenty-two older minority adults aged 55+ completed the electronic survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The main outcome measure was the level of self-perceived preparedness regarding emergencies and disastersie, prepared vs not prepared-among the study participants. RESULTS: Overall, about 58 percent of older minority adults did not perceive themselves to be prepared. Compared to individuals reporting annual incomes below $25,000, individuals reporting annual incomes between $25,000 and $74,999 were more likely to report being prepared [odds ratio (OR) = 2.28, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) = 1.29, 4.05]. Individuals who tested positive or had a close family member test positive for COVID-19 experienced 2.16 times higher odds of having self-perceived disaster preparedness than those who did not [OR = 2.16, 95 percent CI = 1.37, 3.42]. None of the other covariates were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: While we observed no differences in self-perceived disaster preparedness between African American and Hispanic older adults, our findings suggest the importance of prior experience/exposure to previous disasters and the role of socioeconomic status in self-perceived disaster preparedness in minority older adults.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , Surveys and Questionnaires
16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36498330

ABSTRACT

Hospitals are an important part of a nation's response to bioterrorism events. At present, research in this field is still in the initial stage. The number of related studies is small, the research direction is relatively concentrated, and a comprehensive analysis and standard evaluation system are lacking. This literature survey was conducted using PRISMA methodology. Collective information was gathered from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and available grey literature sourced through Google and relevant websites. The studies were screened according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) flowchart. Analysis and summary of the extracted data was performed according to the World Health Organization (WHO) Rapid Hospital Readiness Checklist (2020). Twenty-three articles were selected for review, data extraction, and data analysis. Referring to the WHO rapid hospital readiness checklist, six main indicator categories were determined, including emergency management, medical service capacity, surge capacity, laboratories, regional coordination, and logistical support, and fifty-two subcategories were finally identified. The study summarizes and analyzes the relevant literature on hospital disaster preparedness and extracts relevant capability elements, providing a reference for the preparation of hospitals against bioterrorism events and a basis for the design and development of hospital preparedness assessment indicators.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Bioterrorism/prevention & control , Hospitals , Checklist
17.
PLoS One ; 17(12): e0278521, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36584008

ABSTRACT

With progressive urbanization and the development and utilization of urban underground space, underground urban complexes (UUCs) have been increasingly used. UUCs have brought much convenience to people's lives. However, due to their enclosed nature and complexity, it has been an urgent issue to avoid (or reduce) casualties and allow rapid and safe evacuation of people during an emergency. In this study, the evacuation simulation software Pathfinder was used. Based on the steering model, the variation of the total evacuation time and pedestrian flow at main exits with different simulated evacuation measures, congestion at key nodes and people's path selection were compared and analyzed. Then, the critical locations in the spatial layout of UUCs that were prone to evacuation bottleneck effects were focused on and determined. The evacuation effectiveness of UUCs in an emergency was studied to investigate the problems of emergency evacuation in UUCs. It is found that in UUCs, the bottleneck effects were likely to occur at stairway entrances and exits as well as supermarket checkout counters and caused severe congestion. These locations should be focused on during emergency evacuation. For key locations prone to evacuation bottlenecks, increasing the width of exits or setting up auxiliary evacuation channels could be an effective measure to improve evacuation efficiency. In addition, formulating rational evacuation rules can be a favorable measure for emergency evacuation. However, during the evacuation, the herd mentality in people has an uncertain (positive or negative) impact on evacuation effectiveness. Setting up diversion walls may improve evacuation efficiency and reduce congestion to a certain extent, while evacuation confusion and chaos are prone to occur after diversion. These findings in this study have significant implications for improving the emergency management of UUCs.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Pedestrians , Humans , Computer Simulation , Software , Urbanization , Uncertainty
18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36554599

ABSTRACT

In China, food-freezing plants that use liquid ammonia, which were established in the suburbs in the 1970s, are being surrounded by urban built-up areas as urbanization progresses. These plants lead to extremely serious casualties in the event of a liquid ammonia leakage. The purpose of this thesis was to explore the key factors of personnel protection failure through the scenario evolution analysis of liquid ammonia leakage. The chain of emergencies and their secondary events were used to portray the evolutionary process of a full scenario of casualties caused by liquid ammonia leakage from three dimensions: disaster, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management. A Bayesian network model of liquid ammonia leakage casualties based on the scenario chain was constructed, and key nodes in the network were derived by examining the sensitivity of risk factors. Then, this model was applied to a food-freezing plant in Beijing. The results showed that inadequate risk identification capability is a key node in accident prevention; the level of emergency preparedness is closely related to the degree of casualties; the emergency disposal by collaborative onsite and offsite is the key to avoiding mass casualties. A basis for emergency response to the integration of personnel protection is provided.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Mass Casualty Incidents , Ammonia , Bayes Theorem , China , Beijing
19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36554351

ABSTRACT

The Indonesian Disaster Risk Index (IRBI) in 2018 found that 52.33% of districts or cities in Indonesia were at high risk of natural disasters and the others were at moderate risk. The World Risk Index places Indonesia at number 33 in the very high-risk category. The policy direction of the Implementation of Disaster Management in Indonesia in 2020-2024 is to increase disaster resilience toward sustainable prosperity for sustainable development. PURPOSE: This study aims to identify the various needs for a culturally sensitive PHN-based disaster risk-reduction preparedness training model. METHODS: This study used a descriptive qualitative research design. Data collection was done through in-depth interviews, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and expert panel stages in the Indonesian language. Samples involved in the research included 4 experts and 11 informants. RESULTS: There were 10 themes generated from the results. The analysis results revealed that the level of knowledge, attitudes, and skills of the community is still low. Almost all of the people of Mekar Mukti Village stated that they had never received community-based disaster management training. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings highlighted the importance of the Disaster Risk-Reduction Preparedness Model Based on Culturally Sensitive Public Health Nursing for the community.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , Disaster Planning/methods , Public Health Nursing , Surveys and Questionnaires , Risk Reduction Behavior
20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36554462

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we validate PREDIS, a decision support system for disaster management using serious games to collect experts' judgments on its performance. PREDIS is a model for DISaster response supplier selection (PREDIS). It has a PREDictive component (PRED) for predicting the disaster human impact and an estimation component to Estimate the DISaster (EDIS) needs to optimise supplier-based resource allocation. A quasi-experiment design embedded in a participatory simulation game is conducted to compare the opinions of equal samples of 22 experts and non-experts. The following questions are put forward. First, "Does PREDIS model assists the decision makers to make the same decisions faster?" Second, "Does the PREDIS model assist the non-experts as simulated decision makers to decide like an expert?" Using AHP weights of decision makers' preferences as well as Borda counts, the decisions are compared. The result shows that PREDIS helps to reduce the decision-making time by experts and non-experts to 6 h after the disaster strike, instead of the usual 72 h. It also assists 71% of the non-experts to make decisions similar to those made by experts. In summary, the PREDIS model has two major capabilities. It enables the experts and non-experts to predict the disaster results immediately using widely available data. It also enables the non-experts to decide almost the same as the experts; either in predicting the human impact of a disaster and estimating the needs or in selecting suitable suppliers.


Subject(s)
Disaster Planning , Disasters , Humans , Computer Simulation , Decision Making
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