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1.
Stat Med ; 41(9): 1573-1598, 2022 Apr 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35403288

ABSTRACT

Multi-state models can capture the different patterns of disease evolution. In particular, the illness-death model is used to follow disease progression from a healthy state to an intermediate state of the disease and to a death-related final state. We aim to use those models in order to adapt treatment decisions according to the evolution of the disease. In state-of-the art methods, the risks of transition between the states are modeled via (semi-) Markov processes and transition-specific Cox proportional hazard (P.H.) models. The Cox P.H. model assumes that each variable makes a linear contribution to the model, but the relationship between covariates and risks can be more complex in clinical situations. To address this challenge, we propose a neural network architecture called illness-death network (IDNetwork) that relaxes the linear Cox P.H. assumption within an illness-death process. IDNetwork employs a multi-task architecture and uses a set of fully connected subnetworks in order to learn the probabilities of transition. Through simulations, we explore different configurations of the architecture and demonstrate the added value of our model. IDNetwork significantly improves the predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on a simulated data set, on two clinical trials for patients with colon cancer and on a real-world data set in breast cancer.


Subject(s)
Disease Transmission, Infectious , Neural Networks, Computer , Disease Progression , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Markov Chains , Probability , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , United States
2.
PLoS One ; 17(3): e0264232, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35313328

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCWs) are particularly exposed to COVID-19 and therefore it is important to study preventive measures in this population. AIM: To investigate socio-demographic factors and professional practice associated with the risk of COVID-19 among HCWs in health establishments in Normandy, France. METHODS: A cross-sectional and 3 case-control studies using bootstrap methods were conducted in order to explore the possible risk factors that lead to SARS-CoV2 transmission within HCWs. Case-control studies focused on risk factors associated with (a) care of COVID-19 patients, (b) care of non COVID-19 patients and (c) contacts between colleagues. PARTICIPANTS: 2,058 respondents, respectively 1,363 (66.2%) and 695 (33.8%) in medical and medico-social establishments, including HCW with and without contact with patients. RESULTS: 301 participants (14.6%) reported having been infected by SARS-CoV2. When caring for COVID-19 patients, HCWs who declared wearing respirators, either for all patient care (ORa 0.39; 95% CI: 0.29-0.51) or only when exposed to aerosol-generating procedures (ORa 0.56; 95% CI: 0.43-0.70), had a lower risk of infection compared with HCWs who declared wearing mainly surgical masks. During care of non COVID-19 patients, wearing mainly a respirator was associated with a higher risk of infection (ORa 1.84; 95% CI: 1.06-3.37). An increased risk was also found for HCWs who changed uniform in workplace changing rooms (ORa 1.93; 95% CI: 1.63-2.29). CONCLUSION: Correct use of PPE adapted to the situation and risk level is essential in protecting HCWs against infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/instrumentation , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Health Personnel/classification , Occupational Exposure/prevention & control , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , Case-Control Studies , Cross-Sectional Studies , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Female , France , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Occupational Exposure/statistics & numerical data , Personal Protective Equipment , Professional Practice , Risk Reduction Behavior
3.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 4025, 2022 03 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35256741

ABSTRACT

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling and 3D simulations of the air flow and dispersion of droplets or drops in semi-confined ventilated spaces have found topical applications with the unfortunate development of the Covid-19 pandemic. As an illustration of this scenario, we have considered the specific situation of a railroad coach containing a seated passenger infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (and not wearing a face mask) who, by breathing and coughing, releases droplets and drops that contain the virus and that present aerodynamic diameters between 1 and 1000 µm. The air flow is generated by the ventilation in the rail coach. While essentially 3D, the flow is directed from the bottom to the top of the carriage and comprises large to small eddies visualised by means of streamlines. The space and time distribution of the droplets and drops is computed using both an Eulerian model and a Lagrangian model. The results of the two modelling approaches are fully consistent and clearly illustrate the different behaviours of the drops, which fall down close to the infected passenger, and the droplets, which are carried along with the air flow and invade a large portion of the rail coach. This outcome is physically sound and demonstrates the relevance of CFD for simulating the transport and dispersion of droplets and drops with any diameter in enclosed ventilated spaces. As coughing produces drops and breathing produces droplets, both modes of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in human secretions have been accounted for in our 3D numerical study. Beyond the specific, practical application of the rail coach, this study offers a much broader scope by demonstrating the feasibility and usefulness of 3D numerical simulations based on CFD. As a matter of fact, the same computational approach that has been implemented in our study can be applied to a huge variety of ventilated indoor environments such as restaurants, performance halls, classrooms and open-plan offices in order to evaluate if their occupation could be critical with respect to the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus or to other airborne respiratory infectious agents, thereby enabling relevant recommendations to be made.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Railroads , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , COVID-19/virology , Computer Simulation , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Imaging, Three-Dimensional
6.
Viruses ; 14(2)2022 02 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35215967

ABSTRACT

Zika virus (ZIKV), a re-emerging virus, causes congenital brain abnormalities and Guillain-Barré syndrome. It is mainly transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, but infections are also linked to sexual transmissions. Infectious ZIKV has been isolated, and viral RNA has been detected in semen over a year after the onset of initial symptoms, but the mode of long-term persistence is not yet understood. ZIKV can proliferate in human Sertoli cells (HSerC) for several weeks in vitro, suggesting that it might be a reservoir for persistent ZIKV infection. This study determined proteomic changes in HSerC during ZIKV infections by TMT-mass spectrometry analysis. Levels of 4416 unique Sertoli cell proteins were significantly altered at 3, 5, and 7 days after ZIKV infection. The significantly altered proteins include enzymes, transcription regulators, transporters, kinases, peptidases, transmembrane receptors, cytokines, ion channels, and growth factors. Many of these proteins are involved in pathways associated with antiviral response, antigen presentation, and immune cell activation. Several immune response pathway proteins were significantly activated during infection, e.g., interferon signaling, T cell receptor signaling, IL-8 signaling, and Th1 signaling. The altered protein levels were linked to predicted activation of immune response in HSerC, which was predicted to suppress ZIKV infection. ZIKV infection also affected the levels of critical regulators of gluconeogenesis and glycolysis pathways such as phosphoglycerate mutase, phosphoglycerate kinase, and enolase. Interestingly, many significantly altered proteins were associated with cardiac hypertrophy, which may induce heart failure in infected patients. In summary, our research contributes to a better understanding of ZIKV replication dynamics and infection in Sertoli cells.


Subject(s)
Semen/virology , Sertoli Cells/immunology , Virus Replication , Zika Virus Infection/immunology , Carbohydrate Metabolism/immunology , Cardiovascular Diseases/immunology , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Humans , Male , Protein Processing, Post-Translational , Proteomics , RNA, Viral/genetics , Sertoli Cells/virology , Zika Virus/isolation & purification , Zika Virus Infection/transmission
7.
Viruses ; 14(2)2022 02 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35215999

ABSTRACT

Little is known about whether and how variation in the HIV-1 genome affects its transmissibility. Assessing which genomic features of HIV-1 are under positive or negative selection during transmission is challenging, because very few virus particles are typically transmitted, and random genetic drift can dilute genetic signals in the recipient virus population. We analyzed 30 transmitter-recipient pairs from the Zurich Primary HIV Infection Study and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study using near full-length HIV-1 genomes. We developed a new statistical test to detect selection during transmission, called Selection Test in Transmission (SeTesT), based on comparing the transmitter and recipient virus population and accounting for the transmission bottleneck. We performed extensive simulations and found that sensitivity of detecting selection during transmission is limited by the strong population bottleneck of few transmitted virions. When pooling individual test results across patients, we found two candidate HIV-1 genomic features for affecting transmission, namely amino acid positions 3 and 18 of Vpu, which were significant before but not after correction for multiple testing. In summary, SeTesT provides a general framework for detecting selection based on genomic sequencing data of transmitted viruses. Our study shows that a higher number of transmitter-recipient pairs is required to improve sensitivity of detecting selection.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections/transmission , HIV-1/genetics , Heterosexuality , Selection, Genetic , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , Female , Genetic Variation , Human Immunodeficiency Virus Proteins/genetics , Humans , Male , Models, Statistical , Molecular Sequence Data , Point Mutation
9.
Elife ; 112022 01 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35044908

ABSTRACT

Predator-prey interactions influence prey traits through both consumptive and non-consumptive effects, and variation in these traits can shape vector-borne disease dynamics. Meta-analysis methods were employed to generate predation effect sizes by different categories of predators and mosquito prey. This analysis showed that multiple families of aquatic predators are effective in consumptively reducing mosquito survival, and that the survival of Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex mosquitoes is negatively impacted by consumptive effects of predators. Mosquito larval size was found to play a more important role in explaining the heterogeneity of consumptive effects from predators than mosquito genus. Mosquito survival and body size were reduced by non-consumptive effects of predators, but development time was not significantly impacted. In addition, Culex vectors demonstrated predator avoidance behavior during oviposition. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that predators limit disease transmission by reducing both vector survival and vector size, and that associations between drought and human West Nile virus cases could be driven by the vector behavior of predator avoidance during oviposition. These findings are likely to be useful to infectious disease modelers who rely on vector traits as predictors of transmission.


Mosquitoes are often referred to as the deadliest animals on earth because some species spread malaria, West Nile virus or other dangerous diseases when they bite humans and other animals. Adult mosquitoes fly to streams, ponds and other freshwater environments to lay their eggs. When the eggs hatch, the young mosquitoes live in the water until they are ready to grow wings and transform into adults. In the water, the young mosquitoes are particularly vulnerable to being eaten by dragonfly larvae, fish and other predators. When adult females are choosing where to lay their eggs, they can use their sense of smell to detect these predators and attempt to avoid them. Along with eating the mosquitoes, the predators may also reduce mosquito populations in other ways. For example, predators can disrupt feeding among young mosquitoes, which may affect the time that it takes for them to grow into adults or the size of their bodies once they reach the adult stage. Although the impacts of different predators have been tested separately in multiple settings, the overall effects of predators on the ability of mosquitoes to spread diseases to humans remain unclear. To address this question, Russell, Herzog et al. used an approach called meta-analysis on data from previous studies. The analysis found that along with increasing the death rates of mosquitoes, the presence of predators also leads to a reduction in the body size of those mosquitoes that survive, causing them to have shorter lifespans and fewer offspring. Russell, Herzog et al. found that one type of mosquito known as Culex ­ which carries West Nile virus ­ avoided laying its eggs near predators. During droughts, increased predation in streams, ponds and other aquatic environments may lead adult female Culex mosquitoes to lay their eggs closer to residential areas with fewer predators. Russell, Herzog et al. propose that this may be one reason why outbreaks of West Nile virus in humans are more likely to occur during droughts. In the future, these findings may help researchers to predict outbreaks of West Nile virus, malaria and other diseases carried by mosquitoes more accurately. Furthermore, the work of Russell, Herzog et al. provides examples of mosquito predators that could be used as biocontrol agents to decrease numbers of mosquitoes in certain regions.


Subject(s)
Ambystomatidae , Culicidae/physiology , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Fishes , Food Chain , Insecta , Mosquito Vectors/physiology , Animals , Body Size , Culicidae/growth & development , Female , Larva/growth & development , Larva/physiology , Male , Mosquito Vectors/growth & development , Phylogeny , Population Dynamics
10.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 837, 2022 01 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35039580

ABSTRACT

Face masks slow exhaled air flow and sequester exhaled particles. There are many types of face masks on the market today, each having widely varying fits, filtering, and air redirection characteristics. While particle filtration and flow resistance from masks has been well studied, their effects on speech air flow has not. We built a schlieren system and recorded speech air flow with 14 different face masks, comparing it to mask-less speech. All of the face masks reduced air flow from speech, but some allowed air flow features to reach further than 40 cm from a speaker's lips and nose within a few seconds, and all the face masks allowed some air to escape above the nose. Evidence from available literature shows that distancing and ventilation in higher-risk indoor environment provide more benefit than wearing a face mask. Our own research shows all the masks we tested provide some additional benefit of restricting air flow from a speaker. However, well-fitted mask specifically designed for the purpose of preventing the spread of disease reduce air flow the most. Future research will study the effects of face masks on speech communication in order to facilitate cost/benefit analysis of mask usage in various environments.


Subject(s)
Exhalation/physiology , Filtration/methods , Masks , Speech/physiology , Adult , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Equipment Design , Humans , Male , Young Adult
11.
Parasit Vectors ; 15(1): 4, 2022 Jan 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34983601

ABSTRACT

Human and animal pathogens that are transmitted by arthropods are a global concern, particularly those vectored by ticks (e.g. Borrelia burgdorferi and tick-borne encephalitis virus) and mosquitoes (e.g. malaria and dengue virus). Breaking the circulation of pathogens in permanent foci by controlling vectors using acaricide-based approaches is threatened by the selection of acaricide resistance in vector populations, poor management practices and relaxing of control measures. Alternative strategies that can reduce vector populations and/or vector-mediated transmission are encouraged worldwide. In recent years, it has become clear that arthropod-associated microbiota are involved in many aspects of host physiology and vector competence, prompting research into vector microbiota manipulation. Here, we review how increased knowledge of microbial ecology and vector-host interactions is driving the emergence of new concepts and tools for vector and pathogen control. We focus on the immune functions of host antibodies taken in the blood meal as they can target pathogens and microbiota bacteria within hematophagous arthropods. Anti-microbiota vaccines are presented as a tool to manipulate the vector microbiota and interfere with the development of pathogens within their vectors. Since the importance of some bacterial taxa for colonization of vector-borne pathogens is well known, the disruption of the vector microbiota by host antibodies opens the possibility to develop novel transmission-blocking vaccines.


Subject(s)
Antibodies/immunology , Arthropod Vectors/immunology , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , /methods , Animals , Antibodies/blood , Hemolymph/immunology , Host-Pathogen Interactions , Humans , Salivary Glands/immunology
12.
Washington, D.C.; OPS; 2022-01-03. (OPS/PHE/IMS/COVID-19/21-0015).
Non-conventional in French | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-55546

ABSTRACT

Cette publication de l’Organisation panaméricaine de la Santé (OPS) est une version mise à jour de la publication de juin 2020 intitulée Considérations pour la mise en œuvre et la gestion de la recherche des contacts pour la maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) dans la Région des Amériques. Elle est destinée à compléter les directives provisoires de l’Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS) sur la recherche des contacts dans le contexte de la COVID-19. La publication comprend des lignes directrices pour la recherche des contacts vaccinés et des voyageurs internationaux, ainsi que dans les milieux de transmission communautaire. Elle comprend également les définitions mises à jour des cas, des contacts et de la transmission communautaire publiées par l’OMS. Elle vise à fournir des orientations et des recommandations opérationnelles pour la mise en œuvre de la recherche des contacts pour la COVID-19 dans la Région des Amériques et sera mise à jour à mesure que les connaissances actuelles sur la COVID-19 évolueront. Les publics cibles de cette publication sont les autorités sanitaires nationales, les professionnels de la santé publique et d’autres responsables impliqués dans l’élaboration et la mise en œuvre de politiques et de procédures opérationnelles normalisées concernant les activités de recherche des contacts dans la Région.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections , Contact Tracing , Communicable Diseases , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Microscopy, Electron, Scanning Transmission , Communicable Period , Vaccines , Vaccination , Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
13.
Washington, D.C.; OPAS; 2022-01-03. (OPAS/PHE/IMS/COVID-19/21-0015).
Non-conventional in Portuguese | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr-55545

ABSTRACT

Esta publicação da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) é uma versão atualizada do documento Considerações para a implementação e gerenciamento de rastreamento de contatos para a doença causada pelo novo coronavírus (COVID-19) na Região das Américas, de junho de 2020, cujo objetivo é complementar a orientação provisória da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) sobre o rastreamento de contatos no contexto da COVID-19. A presente publicação inclui orientações para o rastreamento de contatos entre contatos vacinados e viajantes internacionais e em ambientes com transmissão comunitária. Ela também inclui as definições atualizadas de casos, contatos e transmissão comunitária publicadas pela OMS. Busca fornecer orientações e recomendações operacionais para implementar o rastreamento de contatos de COVID-19 nas Américas. Ela será atualizada conforme o conhecimento atual sobre a COVID-19 evolua. O público-alvo desta publicação são autoridades sanitárias nacionais, profissionais de saúde pública e outros funcionários envolvidos na elaboração e implantação de políticas e procedimentos operacionais padrão relacionados a operações de rastreamento de contatos nas Américas.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections , COVID-19 Vaccines , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Contact Tracing , Microscopy, Electron, Scanning Transmission , Communicable Period , Vaccines , Vaccination , Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
14.
Washington, D.C.; OPS; 2022-01-03. (OPS/PHE/IMS/COVID-19/21-0015).
Non-conventional in Spanish | PAHO-IRIS | ID: phr--55544

ABSTRACT

Esta publicación de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) es una versión actualizada del documento de junio del 2020 titulado Consideraciones sobre la ejecución y el manejo del rastreo de contactos para la enfermedad por coronavirus del 2019 (COVID-19) en la Región de las Américas, cuyo propósito es complementar las orientaciones provisionales proporcionadas por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) sobre el rastreo de contactos en el contexto de la COVID-19. La presente publicación incluye orientación sobre el rastreo de contactos en los contactos vacunados y viajeros internacionales, así como en los entornos en los que hay transmisión comunitaria. También incluye las definiciones actualizadas de “caso”, “contacto” y “transmisión comunitaria” que ha publicado la OMS. El objetivo del presente documento es brindar orientación y recomendaciones operativas que permitan realizar el rastreo de contactos de COVID-19 en la Región de las Américas. El documento se actualizará conforme se disponga de información nueva sobre la COVID-19. Esta publicación está dirigida a las autoridades nacionales de salud, los profesionales de la salud pública y otros funcionarios que formulan y ejecutan políticas y procedimientos normalizados de trabajo relacionados con las operaciones de rastreo de contactos en la Región.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections , Contact Tracing , COVID-19 Vaccines , Microscopy, Electron, Scanning Transmission , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Communicable Period , Vaccination , Vaccines , Vaccine-Preventable Diseases
18.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 212, 2022 01 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34996937

ABSTRACT

In response to the COVID19 pandemic, many countries have implemented lockdowns in multiple phases to ensure social distancing and quarantining of the infected subjects. Subsequent unlocks to reopen the economies started next waves of infection and imposed an extra burden on quarantine to keep the reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) < 1. However, most countries could not effectively contain the infection spread, suggesting identification of the potential sources weakening the effect of lockdowns could help design better informed lockdown-unlock cycles in the future. Here, through building quantitative epidemic models and analyzing the metadata of 50 countries from across the continents we first found that the estimated value of [Formula: see text], adjusted w.r.t the distribution of medical facilities and virus clades correlates strongly with the testing rates in a country. Since the testing capacity of a country is limited by its medical resources, we investigated if a cost-benefit trade-off can be designed connecting testing rate and extent of unlocking. We present a strategy to optimize this trade-off in a country specific manner by providing a quantitative estimate of testing and quarantine rates required to allow different extents of unlocks while aiming to maintain [Formula: see text]. We further show that a small fraction of superspreaders can dramatically increase the number of infected individuals even during strict lockdowns by strengthening the positive feedback loop driving infection spread. Harnessing the benefit of optimized country-specific testing rates would critically require minimizing the movement of these superspreaders via strict social distancing norms, such that the positive feedback driven switch-like exponential spread phase of infection can be avoided/delayed.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Contact Tracing , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Physical Distancing , Quarantine , SARS-CoV-2/growth & development , Virus Replication , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Testing , Carrier State , Humans , Metadata , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Time Factors
19.
N Engl J Med ; 386(8): 744-756, 2022 02 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34986294

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Before the emergence of the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), vaccination reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from vaccinated persons who became infected, potentially by reducing viral loads. Although vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons who are infected with the delta variant call into question the degree to which vaccination prevents transmission. METHODS: We used contact-testing data from England to perform a retrospective observational cohort study involving adult contacts of SARS-CoV-2-infected adult index patients. We used multivariable Poisson regression to investigate associations between transmission and the vaccination status of index patients and contacts and to determine how these associations varied with the B.1.1.7 (alpha) and delta variants and time since the second vaccination. RESULTS: Among 146,243 tested contacts of 108,498 index patients, 54,667 (37%) had positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) tests. In index patients who became infected with the alpha variant, two vaccinations with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (also known as AZD1222), as compared with no vaccination, were independently associated with reduced PCR positivity in contacts (adjusted rate ratio with BNT162b2, 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21 to 0.48; and with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.78). Vaccine-associated reductions in transmission of the delta variant were smaller than those with the alpha variant, and reductions in transmission of the delta variant after two BNT162b2 vaccinations were greater (adjusted rate ratio for the comparison with no vaccination, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.65) than after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations (adjusted rate ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.82). Variation in cycle-threshold (Ct) values (indicative of viral load) in index patients explained 7 to 23% of vaccine-associated reductions in transmission of the two variants. The reductions in transmission of the delta variant declined over time after the second vaccination, reaching levels that were similar to those in unvaccinated persons by 12 weeks in index patients who had received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and attenuating substantially in those who had received BNT162b2. Protection in contacts also declined in the 3-month period after the second vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination was associated with a smaller reduction in transmission of the delta variant than of the alpha variant, and the effects of vaccination decreased over time. PCR Ct values at diagnosis of the index patient only partially explained decreased transmission. (Funded by the U.K. Government Department of Health and Social Care and others.).


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing , England , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Viral Load
20.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 737, 2022 01 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35031651

ABSTRACT

A twenty-year-old idea from network science is that vaccination campaigns would be more effective if high-contact individuals were preferentially targeted. Implementation is impeded by the ethical and practical problem of differentiating vaccine access based on a personal characteristic that is hard-to-measure and private. Here, we propose the use of occupational category as a proxy for connectedness in a contact network. Using survey data on occupation-specific contact frequencies, we calibrate a model of disease propagation in populations undergoing varying vaccination campaigns. We find that vaccination campaigns that prioritize high-contact occupational groups achieve similar infection levels with half the number of vaccines, while also reducing and delaying peaks. The paper thus identifies a concrete, operational strategy for dramatically improving vaccination efficiency in ongoing pandemics.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Immunization Programs , Occupational Health , Occupations , Pandemics/prevention & control , Vaccination , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , Immunization Programs/ethics
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