Living less safely through the pandemic in England for people with serious mental and physical health conditions: qualitative interviews with service users and carers of Black African, Caribbean, and South-Asian descent.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 Ethnic Inequalities in Mental health and Multimorbidities (COVEIMM) is a mixed methods study to explore whether COVID-19 exacerbated ethnic health inequalities in adults with serious mental and physical health conditions. We analysed data from electronic health records for England and conducted interviews in Birmingham and Solihull, Manchester, and South London. Sites were selected because they were pilot sites for the Patient and Carer Race Equality Framework being introduced by NHS England to tackle race inequalities in mental health. Prior to the pandemic people in England with severe mental illnesses (SMIs) faced an 11-17-year reduction in life expectancy, mostly due to preventable, long-term, physical health conditions. During the pandemic there was a marked increase in deaths of those living with an SMI. AIMS: This qualitative interview study aimed to understand the reasons underlying ethnic inequalities in mortality and service use during the COVID-19 pandemic for adult service users and carers of Black African, Black Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi backgrounds living with serious multiple long-term mental and physical health conditions. METHODS: We took a participatory action research approach and qualitative interviews undertaken by experts-by-experience and university researchers Participants were purposively sampled by ethnicity, diagnoses, and comorbidities across three geographically distinct sites in England. Transcriptions were coded inductively and deductively and analysed thematically. RESULTS: Findings indicated multiple points along primary and secondary health pathways for mental and physical health that have the potential to exacerbate the unjust gap in mortality that exists for Black and Asian people with SMIs. Issues such as timely access to care (face-to-face and remote), being treated in a culturally appropriate manner with empathy, dignity and respect, and being able to use services without experiencing undue force, racism or other forms of intersectional discrimination were important themes arising from interviews. CONCLUSION: These poor experiences create systemic and enduring healthcare harms for racialised groups with SMIs that need to be addressed. Our findings suggest a need to address these, not only in mental health providers, but across the whole health and care system and a need to ensure more equitable healthcare partnerships with service users, carers, and communities from racialised backgrounds who are often excluded.

Exploring a role for community pharmacists in the identification of alcohol-related liver disease: a qualitative interview study with professionals, patients, and the public.

AIMS: To explore the views and attitudes of professionals, patients and the public to a role for community pharmacists in the identification of alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD). METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of patients with ArLD, members of the public, pharmacy staff, and clinicians managing patients with ArLD across the Wessex region of south England. The interviews explored experiences of alcohol, ArLD and health advice in pharmacies and elicited views of what a pharmacist role in identifying ArLD could entail and factors influencing this. Transcripts were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-six participants were interviewed and three themes were generated: (i) acknowledging, seeking help and engaging with a hidden problem; (ii) professional roles, boundaries and attributes; (iii) communication, relationships, collaboration and support. Participants reported key challenges to identifying people at-risk of ArLD. Offering testing for ArLD was perceived to motivate engagement but there were concerns about pharmacists performing this. A role was mostly seen to be finding people at-risk and engaging them with further care such as referral to liver services. This was perceived to require developing interprofessional collaborations, remuneration and training for pharmacy staff, and community-based liver testing. CONCLUSIONS: Professionals, patient and public participants recognized a role for pharmacists in the identification of ArLD. This was envisaged to incorporate educating pharmacy users about ArLD risk, and identifying and directly engaging those at-risk with liver and support services through development of interprofessional collaborations. The findings of this study support and can inform future work to develop this role.

Winter distribution of zooplankton and ichthyoplankton assemblages in the North Sea and the English Channel.

Although zooplankton were extensively studied in the North Sea, knowledge about winter zooplankton assemblages is still scarce, despite potential influence of zooplankton overwintering stocks on seasonal plankton succession and productivity. Furthermore, several economically and ecologically important fish species reproduce during winter contributing to the zooplankton community as passive members (eggs) or predators (larvae). To elucidate on winter zooplankton distribution, abundance and composition in the Southern North Sea and Eastern English Channel, we defined assemblages based on mesozoo- and ichthyoplankton data sampled between January and February 2008 using fuzzy-clustering and indicator species. Mesozoo- and ichthyoplankton (eggs+larvae) were integrated in a common analysis by using a spatial grid adapted to the datasets and defined by means of a geostatistical method developed in agronomics. Potential environmental drivers of assemblage distribution were evaluated by means of GLMM and comparison with data from 2022 facilitated insight about the inter-annual representativeness of the assemblages. Five zooplankton assemblages were found varying with regard to total zooplankton abundance, dominant and indicator taxa. Spatial variability of abiotic (dissolved nutrients, salinity, depth, temperature, organic matter in suspension, chlorophyll a), biotic variables (phyto- and microplankton composition), water masses and fish spawning grounds were revealed as potential drivers of assemblage distribution. Assemblages off the Rhine-Scheldt estuary and in the German Bight harbored the biggest zooplankton overwintering stocks that might influence the grazing pressure on phytoplankton spring production. Assemblages off the Rhine-Scheldt estuary and covering the English Channel and the Southern Bight were found to be of high importance for herring and plaice larvae. Although further analyses suggested inter-annual representativeness of the assemblages found (2008 vs 2022), the assessment of further years would be necessary to account for potential inter-annual variability. Future studies could profit from the assessment of microzooplankton facilitating insight in fish larvae feeding potential and zooplankton overwintering strategies.

Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme.

OBJECTIVES: The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited an outside view of probabilistic forecasts based on judgements of experts about the extent to which various types of hospital activity might be mitigated over 20 years, in support of the New Hospital Programme (NHP) in the English National Health Service. DESIGN: A prospective online elicitation exercise, over two rounds, to forecast the reduction (0% no reduction to 100% total reduction) in 77 types of hospital activity across England via five types of activity mitigation: outpatient attendance avoidance (n=8); inpatient admission avoidance (n=31); A&E attendance avoidance (n=12); outpatient delivery mode (n=4); inpatient length of stay reduction (n=22) and eight types of activity groups.Primary outcomes are the aggregated forecasts representing the percentage reduction (0%-100%) in hospital activity across England based on 'surprisingly low' (10th percentile-P10) to 'surprisingly high' (90th percentile-P90) forecasts from 17 experts. RESULTS: We had 657 forecasts from 17 experts. The most pessimistic forecast was for inpatient avoidance of frail elderly admissions (mean 5.71%, P10=0.43%, P90=16.40%). The most optimistic forecast was for inpatient admission avoidance for vascular surgery (mean 48.27%, P10=19.82%, P90=78.57%). The overall (n=77) aggregate means ranged from a low of 5.71% to a high of 48.27% with an average width of 50.08%. Experts highlighted mainly four types of mitigation mechanisms-prevention, displacement, quality improvement and de-adoption. CONCLUSION: A national elicitation exercise has provided long-term aggregate forecasts across England that make explicit the wide variation and uncertainty associated with future mitigation activities from an outside perspective. These aggregate forecasts may now be incorporated into the NHP, providing a more robust foundation for planning.

Vaping among adults in England who have never regularly smoked: a population-based study, 2016-24.

BACKGROUND: E-cigarettes are increasingly used by smokers and ex-smokers, often to support smoking cessation, but also among those who have never regularly smoked. The aim of our study is to estimate time trends in vaping prevalence among adults who have never regularly smoked and describe the profile of adult never-regular-smokers who vape. METHODS: In this nationally representative, monthly cross-sectional survey in England, 153 073 participants (aged ≥18 years) were recruited from July, 2016, to April, 2024. 94 107 (61·5%) of the 153 073 participants had never regularly smoked. Logistic regression estimated associations between survey wave and current vaping, overall, and by sociodemographic characteristics and alcohol consumption. FINDINGS: Vaping prevalence among never-regular-smokers was relatively stable up to 2021, at an average of 0·5% (95% CI 0·5-0·6) between July, 2016, and December, 2020; it then increased rapidly, reaching 3·5% (2·8-4·4) in April, 2024. This increase was largely driven by young adults (19·0% [13·9-25·4] among individuals aged 18 years) and those with higher alcohol consumption levels (22·1% [11·7-37·8%] among the heaviest drinkers). By contrast, trends among all adults (including current and former smokers) suggested the rise in vaping prevalence plateaued among all ages by early 2023. In 2023-24, 55·6% (48·2-62·8) of never-regular-smokers who vaped reported vaping daily; 81·7% (75·4-86·7) had been vaping for 6 months or more. The most used devices in 2023-24 were disposables (50·2% [42·9-57·5]) and the most commonly used e-liquids contained 20 mg/mL or more nicotine (44·6% [37·4-52·0]). INTERPRETATION: The number of adults in England who vape but have never regularly smoked rose rapidly between 2021 and 2024, particularly in younger age groups and most of these individuals reported vaping regularly over a sustained period. The public health impacts of this finding will depend on what these people would otherwise be doing: it is likely that some might have smoked if vaping were not an available option (exposing them to more harm), whereas others might not have smoked or vaped. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Consequences of how third sector organisations are commissioned in the NHS and local authorities in England: a mixed-methods study.

Background: As a matter of policy, voluntary, community and social enterprises contribute substantially to the English health and care system. Few studies explain how the National Health Service and local authorities commission them, what outputs result, what contexts influence these outcomes and what differentiates this kind of commissioning. Objectives: To explain how voluntary, community and social enterprises are commissioned, the consequences, what barriers both parties face and what absorptive capacities they need. Design: Observational mixed-methods realist analysis: exploratory scoping, cross-sectional analysis of National Health Service Clinical Commissioning Group spending on voluntary, community and social enterprises, systematic comparison of case studies, action learning. Social prescribing, learning disability support and end-of-life care were tracers. Setting: Maximum-variety sample of six English local health and care economies, 2019-23. Participants: Commissioning staff; voluntary, community and social enterprise members. Interventions: None; observational study. Main outcome measures: How the consequences of commissioning compared with the original aims of the commissioners and the voluntary, community and social enterprises: predominantly qualitative (non-measurable) outcomes. Data sources: Data sources were: 189 interviews, 58 policy and position papers, 37 items of rapportage, 692,659 Clinical Commissioning Group invoices, 102 Freedom of Information enquiries, 131 survey responses, 18 local project group meetings, 4 national action learning set meetings. Data collected in England during 2019-23. Results: Two modes of commissioning operated in parallel. Commodified commissioning relied on creating a principal-agent relationship between commissioner and the voluntary, community and social enterprises, on formal competitive selection ('procurement') of providers. Collaborative commissioning relied on 'embedded' interorganisational relationships, mutual recognition of resource dependencies, a negotiated division of labour between organisations, and control through persuasion. Commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises often worked around the procurement regulations. Both modes were present everywhere but the balance depended inter alia on the number and size of voluntary, community and social enterprises in each locality, their past commissioning experience, the character of the tracer activity, and the level of deprivation and the geographic dispersal of the populations served. The COVID-19 pandemic produced a shift towards collaborative commissioning. Voluntary, community and social enterprises were not always funded at the full cost of their activity. Integrated Care System formation temporarily disrupted local co-commissioning networks but offered a longer-term prospect of greater voluntary, community and social enterprise influence on co-commissioning. To develop absorptive capacity, commissioners needed stronger managerial and communication capabilities, and voluntary, community and social enterprises needed greater capability to evidence what outcomes their proposals would deliver. Limitations: Published data quality limited the spending profile accuracy, which did not include local authority commissioning. Case studies did not cover London, and focused on three tracer activities. Absorptive capacity survey was not a random sample. Conclusions: The two modes of commissioning sometimes conflicted. Workarounds arose from organisations' embeddedness and collaboration, which the procurement regulations often disrupted. Commissioning activity at below its full cost appears unsustainable. Future work: Spending profiles of local authority commissioning; analysis of commissioning in London and of activities besides the present tracers. Analysis of absorptive capacity and its consequences, adjusting the concept for application to voluntary, community and social enterprises. Comparison with other health systems' commissioning of voluntary, community and social enterprises. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR128107) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 39. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

National Health Service commissioners and local councils often buy health and care services from voluntary, community and social enterprises. This study aimed to explore how commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises worked together and where improvements could be made. We talked to commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises in six areas across England and focused on services for learning disabilities, social prescribing and end-of-life care. We analysed National Health Service financial accounts to see how much the National Health Service was spending on services provided by voluntary, community and social enterprises. We surveyed how commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises were using information and knowledge to make decisions. We organised events bringing together commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises to share knowledge and experience. We found there were two ways commissioners bought services from voluntary, community and social enterprises. One was commodified (a buying-and-selling model), the other collaborative (based on working together). Both were happening at the same time in all the areas of the study, but usually one of them was more present than the other. We saw a general move towards collaboration, but some areas were further along with this than others. Various things helped commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises collaborate, such as: paying voluntary, community and social enterprises enough for their services; having people and networks that encouraged others to work with voluntary, community and social enterprises; and including voluntary, community and social enterprises in making decisions about health and care. Commissioners and voluntary, community and social enterprises might therefore lean further towards working together to see how collaborative commissioning can be further developed; how to make contract prices cover voluntary, community and social enterprises' costs; how to enable longer-term contracts; and how to enable less hurried, more considered ways of renewing contracts (e.g. by putting draft contract specifications out to pre-tender consultation). The new Integrated Care Systems in local areas could encourage all this to happen, but pressures elsewhere in the health and care sector might make it more difficult.

Risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in England: a multilevel modelling study using routine contact tracing data.

Contact tracing for COVID-19 in England operated from May 2020 to February 2022. The clinical, demographic and exposure information collected on cases and their contacts offered a unique opportunity to study secondary transmission. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of host factors and exposure settings on secondary COVID-19 transmission risk using 550,000 sampled transmission links between cases and their contacts. Links, or 'contact episodes', were established where a contact subsequently became a case, using an algorithm accounting for incubation period, setting, and contact date. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate adjusted odds of transmission. Of sampled episodes, 8.7% resulted in secondary cases. Living with a case (71% episodes) was the most significant risk factor (aOR = 2.6, CI = 1.9-3.6). Other risk factors included unvaccinated status (aOR = 1.2, CI = 1.2-1.3), symptoms, and older age (66-79 years; aOR = 1.4, CI = 1.4-1.5). Whilst global COVID-19 strategies emphasized protection outside the home, including education, travel, and gathering restrictions, this study evidences the relative importance of household transmission. There is a need to reconsider the contribution of household transmission to future control strategies and the requirement for effective infection control within households.

Trends in shigellosis notifications in England, January 2016 to March 2023.

We reviewed all diagnoses of Shigella species notified to the UK Health Security Agency from January 2016 to March 2023. An overall increase in notifications of shigellosis was seen between 2016 (n = 415/quarter) and 2023 (n = 1 029/quarter). However, notifications dramatically declined between March 2020 and September 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic (n = 208/quarter) highlighting the impact of travel and social distancing restrictions on transmission. S. sonnei diagnoses were more affected by lockdown restrictions than S. flexneri, most likely due to a combination of species-specific characteristics and host attributes. Azithromycin resistance continued to be associated with epidemics of sexually transmissible S. flexneri (adult males = 45.6% vs. adult females = 8.7%) and S. sonnei (adult males = 59.5% vs. adult females = 14.6%). We detected resistance to ciprofloxacin in S. sonnei from adult male cases not reporting travel at a higher frequency (79.4%) than in travel-associated cases (61.7%). Extensively drug-resistant Shigella species associated with sexual transmission among men almost exclusively had ESBL encoded by blaCTX-M-27, whereas those associated with returning travellers had blaCTX-M-15. Given the increasing incidence of infections and AMR, we recommend that enhanced surveillance is used to better understand the impact of travel and sexual transmission on the acquisition and spread of MDR and XDR Shigella species.

spconfShiny: An R Shiny application for calculating the spatial scale of smoothing splines for point data.

Epidemiological analyses of environmental exposures often benefit from including spatial splines in models to account for confounding by spatial location. Understanding how the number of splines relates to physical spatial differences is not always intuitive and can be context-dependent. To address this, we developed a R Shiny application, spconfShiny, that provides a user-friendly platform to calculate an effective bandwidth metric that quantifies the relationship between spatial splines and the range of implied spatial smoothing. spconfShiny can be accessed at https://g2aging.shinyapps.io/spconfShiny/. We illustrate the procedure to compute the effective bandwidth and demonstrate its use for different numbers of spatial splines across England, India, Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the United States. Using spconfShiny, we show the effective bandwidth increases with the size of the region and decreases with the number of splines. Including 10 splines on a 10km grid corresponds to effective bandwidths of 92.2km in Ireland and 927.7km in the United States.

Associations of Blood Pressure Trajectories with Subsequent Cognitive Decline, Dementia and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension may harm cognitive performance, but the potential correlates of longitudinal patterns of blood pressure (BP), especially diastolic BP (DBP), to cognition have been unclear. OBJECTIVES: To examine long-term BP trajectories in relation to subsequent cognitive decline, incident dementia and all-cause mortality in the general population. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Communities in England. PARTICIPANTS: The study included 7566 participants from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). MEASUREMENTS: BP were measured in 1998, 2004, 2008. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify long-term patterns of systolic BP (SBP) and DBP. Outcomes including cognitive function, incident dementia, and all-cause mortality were followed up to 10 years. RESULTS: Five distinct trajectories were identified for SBP and DBP, respectively. The normal-stable trajectory was used as the reference. For cognitive decline, both SBP and DBP trajectories were independently associated with subsequent cognitive decline, with the fastest decline appeared in the high-stable SBP group of 180 mmHg and the low-stable DBP group of 60 mmHg (both P<0.005). For incident dementia, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was also greatest in high-stable group (4.79, 95% confidence interval: 2.84 to 8.07) across all SBP trajectories. Conversely, low (HR: 1.58) and moderate-low stable (HR: 1.56) DBP trajectories increased dementia risk (both P<0.005). Similar patterns were found in BP trajectories in relation to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study evaluates the potential health impact from different BP trajectories and suggests that controlling long-term SBP and maintaining adequate DBP may be relevant for the current practice to promote cognitive health and extend lifespan.

Specific phobias in children with moderate to severe intellectual disabilities: SPIRIT, an adaptation and feasibility study.

Background: There is a lack of interventions for specific phobia in children and adolescents with moderate to severe intellectual disabilities. Objectives: The objectives were to: (a) develop an intervention for specific phobia, together with an intervention fidelity checklist and logic model, and evaluate candidate outcome measures, together with parents/carers and clinicians; (b) describe treatment as usual; (c) model the intervention to determine the acceptability and feasibility for all stakeholders, judge the appropriateness of outcome measures, explore recruitment pathways, and examine the feasibility and acceptability of consent and associated processes; and (d) describe factors that facilitate or challenge the intervention. Design: Phase 1a: using consensus methods, an Intervention Development Group was established who met to develop the intervention, review candidate outcome measures and contribute to the development of the intervention fidelity checklists and logic model. Phase 1b: a national online survey was conducted with parents and professionals to describe treatment as usual. Phase 2: a single-group non-randomised feasibility study was designed to model the intervention and to test intervention feasibility and acceptability, outcome measures and aspects of the research process. Setting: Phase 2: participants were recruited from National Health Service community child learning disabilities teams and special schools in England. Treatment was delivered in the child learning disabilities teams. Participants: Children aged 5-15 years with moderate to severe learning disability and specific phobia, and their parents/carers. Interventions: The SPIRIT intervention comprised two half-day workshops and eight support sessions plus treatment as usual. Main outcomes: The feasibility and acceptability of the intervention and research processes, recruitment, outcome measure completion rates and acceptability, and intervention adherence. Parents completed all of the outcome measures, with very low rates of missing data. The recruitment of sites and participants was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: The intervention was successfully developed and modelled with 15 participants with moderate to severe learning disabilities and their parents. The intervention was judged to be feasible and acceptable by parents/carers and therapists. Parents/carers and therapists suggested minor intervention revisions. Limitations: Randomisation was not modelled within this feasibility study, although the majority of parents and therapists indicated that this would be acceptable. Conclusions: The SPIRIT intervention and associated study processes were judged to be feasible and acceptable. The intervention requires minor revisions. Future work: The SPIRIT intervention should be tested further within a clinical trial. Study registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN34766613. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR130177) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 64. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

This study was about children and adolescents who have moderate to severe learning disabilities and specific phobia. This study had two parts. In the first part, we worked with parents of young people with learning disabilities and therapists to develop a treatment for specific phobia in children and adolescents with moderate to severe learning disabilities. We also collected information about what treatment young people were currently getting. To do this, we conducted a national (United Kingdom) survey of parents/carers who have a child with a learning disability and a phobia, along with a survey of health professionals who work with children with learning disabilities. Together with parents and therapists, we developed a treatment for specific phobia in children and adolescents with moderate to severe learning disabilities. We collected information about what treatments young people received for specific phobia and found that many do not receive any treatment for their specific phobia. In the second part, we wanted to find out whether the treatment was acceptable to parents and therapists. To do this, we tried out the treatment with 15 children and adolescents. We had difficulties getting people involved in the study due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We got enough people involved to help us to work out whether the treatment was acceptable to parents and therapists. We interviewed parents and therapists to find out how they felt about the treatment and being part of the study. We also talked to therapists to ask them what they thought about the treatment. Parents told us that they liked being involved in the study and found the treatment helped them to help their children. Parents and therapists suggested some changes to the treatment to help improve it in the future. It was recommended that a larger study should be completed.

Theoretically framing views of people who smoke in understanding what might work to support smoking cessation in coastal communities: adapting the TIDieR checklist to qualitative analysis for complex intervention development.

INTRODUCTION: People living in coastal communities have some of the worst health outcomes in the UK, driven in part by high smoking rates. Deprived coastal communities include socially disadvantaged groups that struggle to access traditional stop smoking services. The study aimed to seek the views of people who smoke living in coastal communities, to assess the optimal smoking cessation intervention for this population. In addition, the Template for Intervention Description Replication (TIDieR) checklist was adapted as an analytical framework for qualitative data to inform intervention design. METHODS: Current or recent ex-smokers (n = 25) were recruited to participate in qualitative interviews from a range of community locations in a deprived English seaside town. A thematic analysis of the interview data was undertaken adapting the TIDieR framework. This analysis was triangulated with relevant literature and notes from stakeholder meetings and observations to map onto the TIDieR checklist to describe the optimal intervention. RESULTS: Barriers to quitting smoking in the target population included low motivation to quit, high anxiety/boredom, normalisation of smoking and widespread illicit tobacco use. There was broad support for combining behavioural support, e-cigarettes and financial incentives, with a strong preference for the intervention to be delivered opportunistically and locally within (non-healthcare) community settings, in a non-pressurising manner, ideally by a community worker specially trained to give stop smoking support. CONCLUSIONS: An intensive community-based smoking cessation intervention was acceptable to the target population. Adapting the TIDieR checklist as a deductive qualitative analytical framework offered a systematic approach to intervention development. Combined with other intervention development activities, this ensured that the intervention design process was transparent and the proposed intervention was well defined. It is recommended that prior to intervention development researchers speak to members of the target population who may give valuable insight into the optimal intervention.

Has multimorbidity and frailty in adult hospital admissions changed over the last 15 years? A retrospective study of 107 million admissions in England.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have quantified multimorbidity and frailty trends within hospital settings, with even fewer reporting how much is attributable to the ageing population and individual patient factors. Studies to date have tended to focus on people over 65, rarely capturing older people or stratifying findings by planned and unplanned activity. As the UK's national health service (NHS) backlog worsens, and debates about productivity dominate, it is essential to understand these hospital trends so health services can meet them. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient admission records were extracted for adults between 2006 and 2021. Multimorbidity and frailty was measured using Elixhauser Comorbidity Index and Soong Frailty Scores. Yearly proportions of people with Elixhauser conditions (0, 1, 2, 3 +) or frailty syndromes (0, 1, 2 +) were reported, and the prevalence between 2006 and 2021 compared. Logistic regression models measured how much patient factors impacted the likelihood of having three or more Elixhauser conditions or two or more frailty syndromes. Results were stratified by age groups (18-44, 45-64 and 65 +) and admission type (emergency or elective). RESULTS: The study included 107 million adult inpatient hospital episodes. Overall, the proportion of admissions with one or more Elixhauser conditions rose for acute and elective admissions, with the trend becoming more prominent as age increased. This was most striking among acute admissions for people aged 65 and over, who saw a 35.2% absolute increase in the proportion of admissions who had three or more Elixhauser conditions. This means there were 915,221 extra hospital episodes in the last 12 months of the study, by people who had at least three Elixhauser conditions compared with 15 years ago. The findings were similar for people who had one or more frailty syndromes. Overall, year, age and socioeconomic deprivation were found to be strongly and positively associated with having three or more Elixhauser conditions or two or more frailty syndromes, with socioeconomic deprivation showing a strong dose-response relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the proportion of hospital admissions with multiple conditions or frailty syndromes has risen over the last 15 years. This matches smaller-scale and anecdotal reports from hospitals and can inform how hospitals are reimbursed.