Contaminação pelo Covid-19 em profissionais de hospital de referência no Pará / Contamination by Covid-19 in professionals of a reference hospital in Para's state / Contaminación por Covid-19 en profesionales de un hospital de referencia del estado de Pará

A pandemia do novo coronavírus colocou em alerta os sistemas de saúde, estabelecendo sentimentos de instabilidade e de medo. O trabalho é e importante pilar para o traçado de políticas públicas. Objetivo: analisar a contaminação pelo COVID-19 em profissionais de hospital de referência no Pará. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo retrospectivo, quantitativo, observacional, com aplicação de série temporal no período de março de 2020 a março de 2022. Foram incluídos todos os servidores atuantes durante a pandemia, que apresentaram atestados médicos com diagnóstico de COVID, e/ou testagem positiva, ou atestados por suspeita de contaminação. O perfil de servidores foi analisado, explorando as variáveis sexo, idade, convivência ou não com parceiros, grau de escolaridade, cargo e setor; juntamente com a incidência de casos confirmados e incidência total (suspeitos e confirmados). Resultados: O total de afastamentos do trabalho devido ao diagnóstico de COVID-19 foi de 1.420 casos, mais 839 casos suspeitos; sendo que 173 trabalhadores apresentaram reincidência. A incidência foi maior nos meses de maio de 2020, março de 2021 e janeiro de 2022. Houve predominância do sexo feminino e da categoria de enfermagem. Setores administrativos e financeiros apresentaram maior porcentagem de contaminados durante a pandemia (73,40%), proporcionalmente ao quantitativo de servidores atuantes na lotação. Entretanto, foram servidores da assistência direta ao paciente que apresentaram maior porcentagem de reinfecção. Conclusão: Foi possível visualizar três ondas na distribuição temporal dos casos de COVID-19, com destaque para elevação nos primeiros meses de 2022. O declínio no diagnóstico de casos novos no hospital estudado após dois anos de pandemia pode representar esforços individuais e coletivos em resistir às dificuldades da conjuntura. É importante observar o comportamento da pandemia em distintas regiões do Brasil para atualização de estratégias de enfrentamento como um todo.

The new coronavirus pandemic has put health systems on alert, establishing feelings of instability and fear. Working is an important pillar for the design of public policies. Objective: to analyze the contamination by COVID-19 in professionals of a reference hospital in Para's State. Methodology: This is a retrospective, quantitative, observational study, with the application of a time series from March 2020 to March 2022. All civil servants working during the pandemic, who presented medical certificates with a diagnosis of COVID, and/or or positive test, or attestations for suspected contamination. The servants' profile was analyzed, exploring the variables sex, age, living or not with partners, education level, position and sector; along with the incidence of confirmed cases and total incidence (suspected and confirmed). Results: The total number of absences from work due to the diagnosis of COVID-19 was 1,420 cases, plus 839 suspected cases; 173 workers presented recurrence. The incidence was higher in the months of May 2020, March 2021 and January 2022. There was a predominance of females and the nursing category. Administrative and financial sectors had a higher percentage of people infected during the pandemic (73.40%), proportionally to the number of servers working in the capacity. However, it was direct patient care workers who had the highest percentage of reinfection. Conclusion: It was possible to visualize three waves in the temporal distribution of COVID-19 cases, with emphasis on an increase in the first months of 2022. The decline in the diagnosis of new cases in the hospital studied after two years of the pandemic may represent individual and collective efforts to resist to the difficulties of the situation. It is important to observe the behavior of the pandemic in different regions of Brazil to update coping strategies in a general scenery.

La nueva pandemia de coronavirus ha puesto en alerta a los sistemas de salud, estableciendo sentimientos de inestabilidad y miedo. El trabajo es un pilar importante para el diseño de políticas públicas. Objetivo: analizar la contaminación por COVID-19 en profesionales de un hospital de referencia en el Estado de Pará. Metodología: Se trata de un estudio retrospectivo, cuantitativo, observacional, con la aplicación de una serie de tiempo de marzo de 2020 a marzo de 2022. Todos los funcionarios que trabajaron durante la pandemia, que presentaron certificados médicos con diagnóstico de COVID, y/o o test positivo, o atestados por sospecha de contaminación. Se analizó el perfil de los funcionarios, explorando las variables sexo, edad, convivencia o no con la pareja, nivel de escolaridad, cargo y sector; junto con la incidencia de casos confirmados y la incidencia total (sospechosos y confirmados). Resultados: El número total de bajas laborales por diagnóstico de COVID-19 fue de 1.420 casos, más 839 casos sospechosos; 173 trabajadores presentaron recurrencia. La incidencia fue mayor en los meses de mayo de 2020, marzo de 2021 y enero de 2022. Hubo predominio del sexo femenino y de la categoría de enfermería. Los sectores administrativo y financiero presentaron mayor porcentaje de infectados durante la pandemia (73,40%), proporcionalmente al número de servidores que trabajaban en esa función. Sin embargo, fueron los trabajadores de atención directa al paciente los que presentaron el mayor porcentaje de reinfección. Conclusiones: Fue posible visualizar tres olas en la distribución temporal de los casos de COVID-19, destacándose un aumento en los primeros meses de 2022. La disminución en el diagnóstico de nuevos casos en el hospital estudiado después de dos años de pandemia puede representar esfuerzos individuales y colectivos para resistir a las dificultades de la situación. Es importante observar el comportamiento de la pandemia en diferentes regiones de Brasil para actualizar las estrategias de afrontamiento en un escenario general.

A brief overview of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its management strategies: a recent update.

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a global health crisis, inflicting substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. A diverse range of symptoms, including fever, cough, dyspnea, and fatigue, characterizes COVID-19. A cytokine surge can exacerbate the disease's severity. This phenomenon involves an increased immune response, marked by the excessive release of inflammatory cytokines like IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, and IFNγ, leading to tissue damage and organ dysfunction. Efforts to reduce the cytokine surge and its associated complications have garnered significant attention. Standardized management protocols have incorporated treatment strategies, with corticosteroids, chloroquine, and intravenous immunoglobulin taking the forefront. The recent therapeutic intervention has also assisted in novel strategies like repurposing existing medications and the utilization of in vitro drug screening methods to choose effective molecules against viral infections. Beyond acute management, the significance of comprehensive post-COVID-19 management strategies, like remedial measures including nutritional guidance, multidisciplinary care, and follow-up, has become increasingly evident. As the understanding of COVID-19 pathogenesis deepens, it is becoming increasingly evident that a tailored approach to therapy is imperative. This review focuses on effective treatment measures aimed at mitigating COVID-19 severity and highlights the significance of comprehensive COVID-19 management strategies that show promise in the battle against COVID-19.

Previous immunity shapes immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination and Omicron breakthrough infection risk.

The heterogeneity of the SARS-CoV-2 immune responses has become considerably more complex over time and diverse immune imprinting is observed in vaccinated individuals. Despite vaccination, following the emergence of the Omicron variant, some individuals appear more susceptible to primary infections and reinfections than others, underscoring the need to elucidate how immune responses are influenced by previous infections and vaccination. IgG, IgA, neutralizing antibodies and T-cell immune responses in 1,325 individuals (955 of which were infection-naive) were investigated before and after three doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine, examining their relation to breakthrough infections and immune imprinting in the context of Omicron. Our study shows that both humoral and cellular responses following vaccination were generally higher after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to infection-naive. Notably, viral exposure before vaccination was crucial to achieving a robust IgA response. Individuals with lower IgG, IgA, and neutralizing antibody responses postvaccination had a significantly higher risk of reinfection and future Omicron infections. This was not observed for T-cell responses. A primary infection before Omicron and subsequent reinfection with Omicron dampened the humoral and cellular responses compared to a primary Omicron infection, consistent with immune imprinting. These results underscore the significant impact of hybrid immunity for immune responses in general, particularly for IgA responses even after revaccination, and the importance of robust humoral responses in preventing future infections.

Association between post-COVID-19 status and perioperative morbidity and mortality: protocol for an ambispective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: With COVID-19 bringing persistent impact on the worldwide population, perioperative management after SARS-CoV-2 infection needs to be revisited in the new period of different circulating coronavirus variants, vaccination status, increased reinfection rate and new disease control policies. This study aims to explore the association between time to surgery after COVID-19 diagnosis and the risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a single-centre ambispective cohort study. Patients with preoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection who require inpatient surgical intervention from 1 December 2022 to 28 February 2023 will be included. Baseline assessment will include the time interval between preoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and surgery, COVID-19 diagnosis and symptoms, vaccination status and routine preoperative evaluations. The primary outcome will be postoperative composite complications within 30 days after surgery. Association between post-COVID-19 interval and the outcomes will be explored using logistic regression after adjusting for confounding variables. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Peking Union Medical College Hospital (IRB K3570). We aim to publish and disseminate the findings in peer-reviewed journals, scientific conferences and on social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05689840.

Effects of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Vaccination on Reinfection: A Community-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease that is characterized by frequent reinfection. However, the factors influencing reinfection remain poorly elucidated, particularly regarding the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on preventing reinfection and its effects on symptomatology and the interval until reinfection. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study examined patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus reinfection between January 2020 and February 2022. This study included patients aged >17 years who were reinfected at least 90 days between two infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The main outcome measure was a reduction in symptoms during reinfection, and reinfection interval. RESULTS: Overall, 712 patients (average age: 40.52 ± 16.41 years; 312 males) were included. The reduction rate of symptoms at reinfection than that at first infection was significantly higher in the vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). The average reinfection interval was 265.81 days. The interval between the first and second infection was 63.47 days longer in the vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group. The interval was also 57.23 days, significantly longer in the asymptomatic group than in the symptomatic group (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Besides its role in preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection, vaccination reduces the rate of symptomatic reinfection and increases the reinfection interval; thus, it is necessary to be vaccinated even after a previous infection. The findings may inform the decision to avail COVID-19 vaccination.

Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on Physical Activity One Month after Infection and Its Potential Determinants: Re-Infections, Pre-Illness Vaccination Profiles/Types, and Beyond.

This study investigated changes in physical activity (PA) after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection while considering age, PA level, underlying medical conditions (UMCs), vaccination profiles/types, re-infections, disease severity, and treatment. Data were collected from 5829 respondents by using a validated web-based questionnaire. The findings showed that there was a significant overall decrease in PA (-16.2%), including in daily occupation (-11.9%), transportation (-13.5%), leisure-time (-16.4%), and sporting (-27.6%) activities. Age, PA level, UMCs, vaccination profiles/types, disease severity, and treatment played a role in determining PA in individuals' post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infections. Re-infections did not impact the decline in PA. Unvaccinated individuals experienced a significant decline in PA (-13.7%). Younger (-22.4%) and older adults (-22.5%), those with higher PA levels (-20.6%), those with 2-5 UMCs (-23.1%), those who were vaccinated (-16.9%) or partially vaccinated (-19.1%), those with mRNA-type vaccines only (-17.1%), those with recurrent (-19.4%)-to-persistent (-54.2%) symptoms, and those that required hospital (-51.8%) or intensive care unit (-67.0%) admission during their infections had more pronounced declines in PA. These findings emphasize the complex relationship between post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and PA and highlight the need for targeted interventions, further research, and multidisciplinary care to promote PA resumption and mitigate long-term effects on global public health.

Immunological changes in a cohort of COVID-19 survivors: Mansoura University experience.

Background: COVID-19 is a global pandemic that has affected millions of people all over the world since 2019. Infection with COVID-19 initiates a humoral immune response that produces antibodies against specific viral antigens, which in turn is supposed to provide immunity against reinfection for a period of time. The aim of this research was to study the kinetics of IgM and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Methods: One hundred and seventeen post-COVID-19 participants were enrolled in the study.  Qualitative assessment of IgM and IgG antibodies over six months (three visits) post recovery was conducted. Results: The current study revealed a significant reduction in IgM and IgG titers between the first and second visits (p <0.001). After six months, the antibody titer had declined by 78.8% from the first visit for IgM and by 49.2% for IgG antibodies. Regarding younger age and male sex, statistically significant persistence of IgM antibodies was noticed at the six months follow up. Also, statistically significant persistent IgG immunity was found in male patients and diabetics by the end of the six months follow up. Conclusions: We observed a significant waning of IgM and IgG titers over a period of six months follow up.. The persistence of positive IgM and IgG antibodies by the end of six months was variable due to differences in age, gender and presence of diabetes mellitus.

Riding the Wave: Unveiling the Conformational Waves from RBD of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein to ACE2.

The binding affinity between angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and the receptor-binding domain (RBD) plays a crucial role in the transmission and reinfection of SARS-CoV2. Here, microsecond molecular dynamics simulations revealed that point mutations in the RBD domain induced conformational transitions that determined the binding affinity between ACE2 and RBD. These structural changes propagated through the RBD domain, altering the orientation of both ACE2 and RBD residues at the binding site. ACE2 receptor shows significant structural heterogeneity, whereas its binding to the RBD domain indicates a much greater degree of structural homogeneity. The receptor was more flexible in its unbound state with the binding of RBD domains inducing structural transitions. The structural heterogeneity observed in the ACE2 unbound form plays a role in the promiscuity of viral entry, as it may allow the receptor to interact with various related and unrelated ligands. Furthermore, rigidity may be important for stabilizing the complex and ensuring the proper orientation of the RBD-binding interface with ACE2. The greater structural homogeneity observed in the ACE2-RBD complex revealed the effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies and vaccines that are primarily directed toward the RBD-binding interface. The binding of the B38 monoclonal antibody revealed restricted conformational transitions in the RBD and ACE2 receptors, attributed to its potent binding interaction.

The evolving landscape of COVID-19 and post-COVID condition in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: A study by ERIC, the European research initiative on CLL.

In this retrospective international multicenter study, we describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and related disorders (small lymphocytic lymphoma and high-count monoclonal B lymphocytosis) infected by SARS-CoV-2, including the development of post-COVID condition. Data from 1540 patients with CLL infected by SARS-CoV-2 from January 2020 to May 2022 were included in the analysis and assigned to four phases based on cases disposition and SARS-CoV-2 variants emergence. Post-COVID condition was defined according to the WHO criteria. Patients infected during the most recent phases of the pandemic, though carrying a higher comorbidity burden, were less often hospitalized, rarely needed intensive care unit admission, or died compared to patients infected during the initial phases. The 4-month overall survival (OS) improved through the phases, from 68% to 83%, p = .0015. Age, comorbidity, CLL-directed treatment, but not vaccination status, emerged as risk factors for mortality. Among survivors, 6.65% patients had a reinfection, usually milder than the initial one, and 16.5% developed post-COVID condition. The latter was characterized by fatigue, dyspnea, lasting cough, and impaired concentration. Infection severity was the only risk factor for developing post-COVID. The median time to resolution of the post-COVID condition was 4.7 months. OS in patients with CLL improved during the different phases of the pandemic, likely due to the improvement of prophylactic and therapeutic measures against SARS-CoV-2 as well as the emergence of milder variants. However, mortality remained relevant and a significant number of patients developed post-COVID conditions, warranting further investigations.

Early Omicron infection is associated with increased reinfection risk in older adults in long-term care and retirement facilities.

Background: Older adults are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection and severe disease, especially those in congregate living settings, despite high SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage. It is unclear whether hybrid immunity (combined vaccination and infection) after one Omicron infection provides increased protection against subsequent Omicron reinfection in older adults. Methods: Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection was examined in 750 vaccinated residents of long-term care and retirement homes in the observational cohort COVID in Long-Term Care Study in Ontario, Canada, within a 75-day period (July to September 2022). Risk of infection was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Serum anti-spike and anti-RBD SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgA antibodies, microneutralization titres, and spike-specific T cell memory responses, were examined in a subset of 318 residents within the preceding three months. Findings: 133 of 750 participants (17.7%) had a PCR-confirmed Omicron infection during the observation period. Increased infection risk was associated with prior Omicron infection (at 9-29 days: 47.67 [23.73-95.76]), and this was not attributed to days since fourth vaccination (1.00 [1.00-1.01]) or residence outbreaks (>6 compared to ≤6: 0.95 [0.37-2.41]). Instead, reinfected participants had lower serum neutralizing antibodies to ancestral and Omicron BA.1 SARS-CoV-2, and lower anti-RBD IgG and IgA antibodies, after their initial Omicron infection. Interpretation: Counterintuitively, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection was associated with increased risk of Omicron reinfection in residents of long-term care and retirement homes. Less robust humoral hybrid immune responses in older adults may contribute to risk of Omicron reinfection. Funding: COVID-19 Immunity Task Force of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Re-Emerging COVID-19: Controversy of Its Zoonotic Origin, Risks of Severity of Reinfection and Management.

The re-emergence of COVID-19 has sparked controversy around its zoonotic origin, management strategies, risks posed by the virus, and the severity of reinfection. While it is widely accepted that the virus originated from animals, the exact source and transmission pathway remain unclear. This has led to debates regarding the regulation of wildlife markets and trade, as well as the need for more robust surveillance and monitoring systems. Hence, the objective of this review is to provide a brief overview of the disease's biology, preventative strategies, risk factors, degree of reinfection, and epidemiological profile. It offers a thorough examination of the disease's root cause, potential zoonotic transmission, and the most recent preventive measures, like vaccines. In terms of management, there is ongoing debate about the most effective strategies to mitigate the spread of the virus. While public health measures such as social distancing and mask-wearing have been widely implemented, there are differing opinions on the effectiveness of lockdowns and restrictions on public movement. The risks posed by COVID-19 are also a topic of debate, with some arguing that the virus is relatively low-risk for the majority of the population while others highlight the potential for severe illness, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly or those with underlying health conditions. Finally, the possibility of reinfection has raised concerns about the longevity of immunity following infection or vaccination. While some studies have suggested that reinfection may be possible and potentially more severe, the overall risk remains uncertain and further research is needed to fully understand the implications of reinfection.

Effectiveness of natural immune protection against COVID-19 reinfection: systematic review with meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The future of the COVID-19 pandemic depends on the evolution of the virus and immune protection stimulated by vaccination or upon exposure to natural infection. While most research focuses on vaccine efficacy, data remain unclear on the efficacy and duration of natural immune protection against infection. AIM: In this article, we aim to determine the efficacy of natural immune protection against reinfection with COVID-19 or severe COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of available studies in electronic databases followed by a meta-analysis to determine the efficacy of natural immune protection against COVID-19 reinfection and severe infection. RESULTS: Of the 414 studies identified for the full review, 8 studies met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. The total number of individuals participating in the 8 studies included 19,837,147 people. Individuals with a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection (1,9% [0,6%-3,1%]) had a lower rate of infection than individuals without a history of infection (7,1% [3,9%-10,1%]). The mean efficacy of natural immune protection against reinfection was 84,7% [78,5%-90,9%], while the mean efficacy of natural immune protection against severe COVID-19 infection was 96,9% [94%-99,6%]. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that natural immune protection against reinfection is high, particularly against severe COVID-19. However, further research is needed to determine the duration of natural immune protection and the impact of different variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Risk of long COVID main symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

This review aimed to summarise the relative risk (RR) of the main symptoms of long COVID in people infected with SARS-CoV-2 compared to uninfected controls, as well as the difference in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after infection. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, NLM-LitCovid, WHO-COVID-19, arXiv and Europe-PMC were searched up to 23rd March 2022. Studies reporting risk (four or more weeks after infection) of fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive dysfunction, as well as comparative HRQoL outcomes, were included. Pairwise random-effects meta-analyses were performed to pool risks of individual symptoms. Thirty-three studies were identified; twenty studies reporting symptom risks were included in the meta-analyses. Overall, infection with SARS-CoV-2 carried significantly higher risk of fatigue (RR 1.72, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 1.41, 2.10), shortness of breath (RR 2.60, 95% CIs 1.96, 3.44), memory difficulties (RR 2.53, 95% CIs 1.30, 4.93), and concentration difficulties (RR 2.14, 95% CIs 1.25, 3.67). Quality of life findings were varied and comparisons between studies were challenging due to different HRQoL instruments used and study heterogeneity, although studies indicated that severe hospitalised COVID is associated with a significantly poorer HRQoL after infection. These risks are likely to constantly change as vaccines, reinfections, and new variants alter global immunity.

SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in children attending daycare versus adults in Germany between October 2020 and June 2021.

BACKGROUND: Data on seroconversion rates after SARS-CoV-2 infection in young children (<6 years) is scarce. The present study compares seroconversion rates between young children and adults and identifies associated factors. METHODS: The COALA study ("Corona-outbreak-related examinations in daycare centers") investigated transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in daycare centers and associated households (10/2020-06/2021). 114 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 through PCR either prior to the study period by health authorities or in PCR testing during the study period. Two capillary blood samples were obtained within five weeks consecutively and tested for SARS-CoV-2 IgG-antibodies (second sampling depending on positive PCR). Results from 91 participants (38 young children 1-6 years, 53 adults) were included in the analyses. RESULTS: Seroconversion rate in young children is significantly higher than in adults (97.4% versus 66%). High viral load and longer time interval between the probable date of infection and antibody testing are associated with seroconversion. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings depict substantial development of specific antibodies in young children after SARS-CoV-2 infection. This may provide temporary protection from re-infection for young children or severe disease for this age group.

When fighting an infectious disease, the immune system often produces antibodies. These proteins circulate in the blood, where they help to clear the infection and generally remain present for several months after recovery. Little is known about how often children younger than 6 years develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection. The aim of our study was to compare antibody development of young children and adults. We examined blood samples from young children and adults after SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in daycare centers during the early pandemic (10/2020­06/2021) in Germany. Young children and adults who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had two blood samples taken at an interval of five weeks. We found that young children are more likely to develop antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults. These findings indicate that young children may be­at least temporarily­protected from re-infection or from a severe course of the disease.

Extending susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible epidemics to allow for gradual waning of immunity.

Susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic models assume that individual immunity wanes in one leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that has become even more evident during COVID-19 pandemic where also recently infected have a reinfection risk, and booster vaccines are given to increase immunity. Here, a novel mathematical model is presented allowing for the gradual decay of immunity following linear or exponential waning functions. The two new models and the SIRS model are compared assuming all three models have the same cumulative immunity. When no intervention is put in place, we find that the long-term prevalence is higher for the models with gradual waning. If aiming for herd immunity by continuous vaccination, it is shown that larger vaccine quantities are required when immunity wanes gradually compared with results obtained from the SIRS model, and this difference is the biggest for the most realistic assumption of exponentially waning of immunity. For parameter choices fitting to COVID-19, the critical amount of vaccine supply is about 50% higher if immunity wanes linearly, and more than 150% higher when immunity wanes exponentially, when compared with the classic SIRS epidemic model.

Endemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic without decreasing trends in the global numbers of new daily cases, high numbers of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and re-infections together with pessimistic predictions for the Omicron wave duration force studies about the endemic stage of the disease. The global trends were illustrated with the use the accumulated numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters (additional vaccinations), and the results of calculation of the effective reproduction number provided by Johns Hopkins University. A new modified SIR model with re-infections was proposed and analyzed. The estimated parameters of equilibrium show that the global numbers of new daily cases will range between 300 thousand and one million, daily deaths-between one and 3.3 thousand.

Nasal mucosal IgA levels against SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal coronaviruses are low in children but boosted by reinfection.

Repeated coronavirus infections in childhood drive progressive maturation of systemic immune responses into adulthood. Analyses of immune responses in children have focused primarily upon systemic assessment but the importance of mucosal immunity is increasingly recognised. We studied virus-specific antibody responses in contemporaneous nasal swabs and blood samples from 99 children (4-15 years) and 28 adults (22-56 years), all of whom had prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Whilst mucosal IgA titres against Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial virus were comparable between children and adults, those against all coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, were lower in children. Mucosal IgA antibodies demonstrated comparable relative neutralisation capacity in both groups and retained activity against recent omicron variants such as XBB.1 which are highly evasive of IgG neutralisation. SARS-CoV-2 reinfection preferentially enhanced mucosal IgA responses whilst the impact of vaccination was more modest. Nasal IgA levels against coronaviruses thus display a pattern of incremental response to reinfection which likely determines the natural history of reinfection. This highlights the particular significance of developing mucosal vaccines against coronaviruses in children.

Antibody Response against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Messenger Ribonucleic Acid Vaccines in Infected Individuals: A Systematic Review.

Individuals with a history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exhibit memory immunity acquired during natural infection. However, a decline in immunity after infection renders these individuals vulnerable to re-infection, in addition to a higher risk of infection with new variants. This systematic review examined related studies to elucidate the antibody response in these infected individuals after messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination. Hence, the focus of this review was to ascertain differences in the concentration of binding and neutralising antibodies of previously infected individuals in comparison to those of infection-naïve individuals after administration of two doses of mRNA vaccination through available case-control and cohort studies. Positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test or detectable anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies at the baseline in included studies showed categorisation of infected and uninfected individuals. This review utilised three online databases: PubMed, Scopus and Cochrane with the following keywords: (COVID-19 OR 'Coronavirus Disease 2019' OR SARS-CoV-2) AND Immun* AND (Pfizer OR BioNTech OR BNT162b2 OR Comirnaty OR Moderna OR mRNA-1273) from January 2019 to July 2021. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocol (PRISMA-P) 2020 guidelines and assessment based on the Crowe Critical Appraisal Tool (CCAT), we included 13 related qualified papers of observational studies discerning the binding and neutralising antibody concentrations of infected and uninfected individuals after administration of mRNA vaccines, such as the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccine. The mRNA vaccines induced robust binding and neutralising antibody responses in both groups. However, infected individuals showed induction of higher antibody responses in a shorter time compared to uninfected individuals. Hence, a single dose of mRNA vaccination for infected individuals may be sufficient to reach the same level of antibody concentration as that observed in uninfected individuals after receiving two doses of vaccination.

Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses.

The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of inter-individual variability. We identified six distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate and clearance rate, by clustering data from 810 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection, as well as an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during omicron infection, following vaccination, and following re-infection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.

COVID-19 Infection Rates in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Inmates: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background In 2023, breakthrough COVID-19 infections among vaccinated individuals and reinfections in previously infected people have become common. Additionally, infections are due to Omicron subvariants of the virus that behave differently from those at the onset of the pandemic. Understanding how vaccination and natural immunity influence COVID-19 infection rates is crucial, especially in high-density congregate settings such as prisons, to inform public health strategies. Methods We analyzed COVID-19 surveillance data from January to July 2023 across 33 California state prisons, primarily a male population of 96,201 individuals. We computed the incidence rate of new COVID-19 infections among COVID-bivalent-vaccinated and entirely unvaccinated groups (those not having received either the bivalent or monovalent vaccine). Results Our results indicate that the infection rates in the bivalent-vaccinated and entirely unvaccinated groups are 3.24% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.06-3.42%) and 2.72% (CI: 2.50-2.94%), respectively, with an absolute risk difference of only 0.52%. When the data were filtered for those aged 50 and above, the infection rates were 4.07% (CI: 3.77-4.37%) and 3.1% (CI: 2.46-3.74%), respectively, revealing a mere 0.97% absolute risk difference. Among those aged 65 and above, the infection rates were 6.45% (CI: 5.74-7.16%) and 4.5% (CI: 2.57-6.43%), respectively, with an absolute risk difference of 1.95%. Conclusion We note low infection rates in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, with a small absolute difference between the two across age groups. A combination of monovalent and bivalent vaccines and natural infections likely contributed to immunity and a lower level of infection rates compared to the height of the pandemic. It is possible that a degree of 'herd immunity' has been achieved. Yet, using p<0.05 as the threshold for statistical significance, the bivalent-vaccinated group had a slightly but statistically significantly higher infection rate than the unvaccinated group in the statewide category and the age ≥50 years category. However, in the older age category (≥65 years), there was no significant difference in infection rates between the two groups. This suggests that while the bivalent vaccine might offer protection against severe outcomes, it may not significantly reduce the risk of infections entirely. Further research is needed to understand the reasons behind these findings and to consider other factors, such as underlying health conditions. This study underscores the importance of developing vaccines that target residual COVID-19 infections, especially in regard to evolving COVID-19 variants.