QAFI: a novel method for quantitative estimation of missense variant impact using protein-specific predictors and ensemble learning.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has revolutionized genetic diagnostics, yet its application in precision medicine remains incomplete, despite significant advances in computational tools for variant annotation. Many variants remain unannotated, and existing tools often fail to accurately predict the range of impacts that variants have on protein function. This limitation restricts their utility in relevant applications such as predicting disease severity and onset age. In response to these challenges, a new generation of computational models is emerging, aimed at producing quantitative predictions of genetic variant impacts. However, the field is still in its early stages, and several issues need to be addressed, including improved performance and better interpretability. This study introduces QAFI, a novel methodology that integrates protein-specific regression models within an ensemble learning framework, utilizing conservation-based and structure-related features derived from AlphaFold models. Our findings indicate that QAFI significantly enhances the accuracy of quantitative predictions across various proteins. The approach has been rigorously validated through its application in the CAGI6 contest, focusing on ARSA protein variants, and further tested on a comprehensive set of clinically labeled variants, demonstrating its generalizability and robust predictive power. The straightforward nature of our models may also contribute to better interpretability of the results.

Evaluation of enzyme activity predictions for variants of unknown significance in Arylsulfatase A.

Continued advances in variant effect prediction are necessary to demonstrate the ability of machine learning methods to accurately determine the clinical impact of variants of unknown significance (VUS). Towards this goal, the ARSA Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenge was designed to characterize progress by utilizing 219 experimentally assayed missense VUS in the Arylsulfatase A (ARSA) gene to assess the performance of community-submitted predictions of variant functional effects. The challenge involved 15 teams, and evaluated additional predictions from established and recently released models. Notably, a model developed by participants of a genetics and coding bootcamp, trained with standard machine-learning tools in Python, demonstrated superior performance among submissions. Furthermore, the study observed that state-of-the-art deep learning methods provided small but statistically significant improvement in predictive performance compared to less elaborate techniques. These findings underscore the utility of variant effect prediction, and the potential for models trained with modest resources to accurately classify VUS in genetic and clinical research.