Utilization of dental care among adult populations: a scoping review of applied models.

BACKGROUND: The timely and appropriate utilization of dental health care is essential to the prevention and accurate treatment of oral diseases. Therefore, it is crucial that managers, health professionals and healthcare providers be fully aware of the predictors encouraging the utilization of dental services and reduce social inequalities. In this scoping review, we aimed to analyze the published articles and reports to find out the factors associated with dental services utilization and the comprehensiveness of the applied models among general adult populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This scoping study was based on the 5-steps of Arksey and O'Malley framework. Keywords were selected under two main concepts: determinants of dental care utilization and the concept of the applied models. Searches were conducted in some electronic databses including PubMed, Google Scholar and Scopus with variations, and a combination of the keywords under the two main afore-mentioned concepts. All the relevant articles reporting the utilization of dental care and its potential predictors among adult populations were chosen. No restrictions involving terms of study time, location or methodological aspects of oral health utilization were considered. Using tables and charts mapping, we tried to group the studies based on the year of their publication, geographic distribution, the range of included indices and the type of their measurement. Also, a directed content analysis method was used to investigate the comprehensiveness of the studies in regard to considering the determinant factors at different levels suggested by the Andesen model. RESULTS: Fifty-two articles were included in the analysis. Thirty-six (69%) had been published between 2016 and 2020. The United States had conducted the most research in this scope. About 30% of studies had mentioned all three domains of demographics, social structure and beliefs, simultaneously. To evaluate the enabling factors, in 84.61% and 59.61% of studies, the income levels and insurance feature were assessed, respectively. 57.69% of the retrieved studies considered the perceived need features and 38.46% referred to the evaluated ones. The dental services utilization, in terms of the last visit during the "past 12 months", was assessed more commonly. Only 11.54% of studies did evaluate the contextual characteristics and about 71.15% of articles were relatively comprehensive. CONCLUSION: Overall, it seems that in most of the studies, not all of the determinant factors at different levels of the Andersen model have been considered. In order to discover the conceptual linkages and feedback loops of the model, it is essential to conduct more comprehensive research in the future.

Feasibility Study and Design of Registration System for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Patients in Isfahan Province.

Background: Disease registration is an organized system for collecting, storing, retrieving, analyzing a particular disease or exposure to known substances in a specific population. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and design of the registration system for upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients based on patients referring to Al-Zahra and Khorshid hospitals, Isfahan, Iran. Materials and Methods: This study is a research action study in which the members of the registration system team are hospital triage physicians, internal residents in the Emergency department of hospital, subspecialty assistants and gastroenterologists, statisticians (epidemiologists and methodologists), and two trained persons were specified to collect medical information and documents. The data collection tool is a researcher-made checklist. Based on the available tools, the most important criteria related to gastrointestinal bleeding were selected. In the next step, the criteria selected in the council, including team members, were reviewed and a preliminary draft was prepared to record the information of patients. Results: The results indicated the final version of the checklist in three parts including demographic variables (age, sex, education, et al.), main variables (as the minimum data required by a person to register in the checklist (patient's clinical signs)), extended main variables (its information is designed to be used to diagnose, treat, and follow-up the patient in later stages). Conclusion: It seems to be predictable by establishing a system for recording gastrointestinal bleeding diseases, disease prevalence, monitoring services and treatment of patients, survival analysis and evaluation of clinical care outcomes, finding patients at higher risk for emergency treatment, reviewing drug interventions, and interventional activities.

Population attributable risk fraction of modifiable risk factors associated with poor self-rated health among children and adolescent; the CASPIAN-V study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the population attributable risk fraction (PARF) of the risk factors for poor SRH in Iranian children and adolescents. METHOD: This was a nationwide cross-sectional study conducted in 2015 among 14,400 students aged 6-18 years, living in 30 provinces of Iran. Data were collected using global school health survey questionnaire. Logistic regression was employed to determine the adjusted association of modifiable risk factors with SRH. We used average PARF to determine the preventable proportion of poor reported SRH. RESULTS: Of 14,400 recruited students, data on 13,983 subjects were analyzed in current study. The mean (SD) age of participants (n = 13,983) was 12.3 (3.16) years, and 49.3% were female. Poor SRH was reported in 19% of subjects. In total, 77% of poor reported SRH in Iranian children and adolescents could be attributed to insufficient daily sleep duration, physical injury, lack of close friend, dissatisfaction with family relationship, and the lack of a companion to share personal problems. We also found that physical pain had the largest PARF (32.4%) followed by anxiety (26.1%) and un-satisfaction with family relationship (5.2%). CONCLUSION: The established physical and social support factors of poor SRH were associated with a remarkable proportion of poor SRH in the Iranian pediatric population. Changing the children's risk factor profile to the lowest physical risk factor as well as reducing the anxiety level and preventing from physical painsmay significantly improve the SRH of children and adolescents.

Association between socioeconomic status and Parkinson's disease: findings from a large incident case-control study.

Introduction: The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and Parkinson's disease (PD) has been investigated in few studies. To our knowledge, SES measurement based on wealth index and perceived SES in PD patients has not been investigated in any study. Also, the simultaneous measurement of objective and perceived SES and their association with PD has not been conducted yet. This study aimed to determine the association between various SES indicators and PD. Methods: This incident case-control study was conducted on 508 patients with PD and 1015 controls randomly selected from the general population in Iran in 2021-2022. A telephone interviewing method was used for data collection. The wealth index and educational level were used to measure objective SES. Perceived SES was also recorded. Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate the adjusted OR (AOR). Results: A significant association based on the wealth index was found, where the intermediate category had lower odds of developing PD than the deprived category (AOR 0.75 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.99)). The odds of PD was significantly higher in the people with academic education compared with illiterate and primary-level education (AOR 2.17 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.99). Additionally, the odds of PD were significantly lower in the intermediate (AOR 0.26 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.52)) and affluent (AOR 0.21 (95% CI 0.11 to 0.40)), compared with the deprived categories based on perceived SES. Similar results were obtained in the analysis by sex. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that lower wealth index, a lower perceived SES and academic education are associated with increased the odds of PD.

Additive interaction between dietary inflammatory index and some key risk factors of multiple sclerosis: a population-based incident case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Recently, dietary inflammatory index (DII) has been introduced as a significant risk factor for MS. We examined the interaction between dietary inflammatory index and some formerly demonstrated key risk factors of multiple sclerosis (MS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based incident case-control study of 547 MS cases and 1057 controls. Multiplicative and additive interaction were assessed using interaction term in the logistic regression model and synergy index (SI), respectively. RESULTS: Additive interaction was detected between DII and drug abuse (SI = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.14-5.82), gender (SI = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.39-2.87) and history of depression (SI = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.04-2.72) on the risk scale. The risk of MS in drug abusers with DII ≥ 0 was 10.4-times higher than that in non-drug abusers with DII < 0 (OR = 10.4, 95% CI: 5.12-21.02, P < 0.001). We also found that women with DII ≥ 0 had a 9.2 times larger risk compared with the men with DII < 0(OR = 9.2, 95% CI: 6.3-13.5, P < 0.001). Similarly, the risk of MS was remarkably higher in those with a history of depression and DII >0 (OR = 7.6, 95% CI: 5.1-11.5, P < 0.001). There was no evidence of multiplicative interaction between DII and the other risk factors of MS on the risk scale. CONCLUSIONS: We identified additive interaction between DII and drug abuse, gender and history of depression on MS. Further studies are needed to understand the underlying mechanisms of these detected interactions.

Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Multiple Sclerosis Using Model-based Standardization and Misclassification Adjustment Via Probabilistic Bias Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) is still not well-demonstrated, and assessment of some risk factors like alcohol consumption has problems like confounding and measurement bias. To determine the causal effect of alcohol consumption on MS after adjusting for alcohol consumption misclassification bias and confounders. METHODS: In a population-based incident case-control study, 547 patients with MS and 1057 healthy people were recruited. A minimally sufficient adjustment set of confounders was derived using the causal directed acyclic graph. The probabilistic bias analysis method (PBAM) using beta, logit-logistic, and triangular probability distributions for sensitivity/specificity to adjust for misclassification bias in self-reporting alcohol consumption and model-based standardization (MBS) to estimate the causal effect of alcohol consumption were used. Population attributable fraction (PAF) estimates with 95% Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis (MCSA) intervals were calculated using PBAM and MBS analysis. Bootstrap was used to deal with random errors. RESULTS: The adjusted risk ratio (95% MCSA interval) from the probabilistic bias analysis and MBS between alcohol consumption and MS using the three distribution was in the range of 1.93 (1.07 to 4.07) to 2.02 (1.15 to 4.69). The risk difference (RD) in all three scenarios was 0.0001 (0.0000 to 0.0005) and PAF was in the range of 0.15 (0.010 to 0.50) to 0.17 (0.001 to 0.47). CONCLUSION: After adjusting for measurement bias, confounding, and random error alcohol consumption had a positive causal effect on the incidence of MS.

Joint Waterpipe and Cigarette Smoking as Key Correlate of History of Depression in Iranian Population: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Research on the association between waterpipe smoking and depression is limited. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and adjusted associated correlates of depression among Iranian adult. We analyzed data from 974 participants of a population-based cross-sectional study enrolling 18-50-year-old residents of Tehran, Iran in 2015. Data on lifetime self-reported history of depression, smoking behaviors, socioeconomic status, self-rated health, physical activity, stressful life events as well as a number of relevant confounders was obtained. Logistic regression models were employed for estimating adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). The mean (SD) age of the study sample was 32.55 (8.58) years. Of 974 recruited adults, 52.36% were female. The lifetime prevalence of depression in the general population was 17.0%. In general, 21.77% and 24.79% of participant reported lifetime history of cigarette and waterpipe smoking, respectively. While only cigarette smoking (OR = 1.94, 95% CI: (1.04-3.61) and only waterpipe smoking (OR = 1.65, 95% CI: (.95-2.86) were significantly associated with depression, joint cigarette and waterpipe smoking (OR= 3.76, 95% CI: (1.99-6.08) was the strongest correlate of depression followed by female gender (OR = 3.28, 95% CI: (2.08-5.15) and poor self-rated health (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: (1.73-3.53). The prevalence of self-reported depression in general population of Tehran is considerably higher than its global mean. We reported joint cigarette and waterpipe smoking as a significant correlate with depression in the general population. Future health promotion interventions should highlight the disadvantages of joint cigarette and waterpipe smoking targeting adults and especially females.

Parental Occupational Exposure and Neurodevelopmental Disorders in Offspring: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Parental occupational exposures might be associated with neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) in offspring. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize and synthesize the current literature and to estimate the pooled magnitude of the underlying association(s) between parental occupational exposures and subsequent risk of NDDs. RECENT FINDINGS: In the meta-analysis of 20 included studies, significant associations were found between parental occupational exposure to pesticides or solvents and the risk of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in offspring. Prenatal occupational exposure to pesticides was significantly associated with motor development or cognition disorders in children. Furthermore, some evidence showed that metals might have a role in the development of autism spectrum disorders. Further studies need to identify the level of parental occupational exposures that can be significantly associated with NDDs. Moreover, utilizing standardized outcome and exposure scales is recommended to incorporate paternal, maternal, and parental as well as both prenatal and postnatal exposure in future studies.

Health risk assessment of exposure to chlorpyrifos in pregnant women using deterministic and probabilistic approaches.

Since chlorpyrifos (CPF), a major organophosphorus pesticide, is widely used for agricultural and domestic purposes, thus, humans may be exposed to these toxic compounds through multiple sources. In recent years, significant concerns have been raised regarding the deleterious effects of exposure to CPF on human health, especially growing fetus. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the health risks of exposure to CPF among pregnant women living in Isfahan province, Iran, using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The urinary concentration of 3, 5, 6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCP), the most common metabolite of CPF, was measured as the biomarker of current exposure to CPF. For this purpose, spot urine samples were taken from 110 pregnant women and the urinary concentrations of TCP were quantified. The estimated daily intake and hazard quotient (HQ) for CPF exposure were measured according to the reference values set by World Health Organization (WHO) and United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) for acute and chronic exposure to CPF. Based on the results, TCP was detected in more than 70% of samples (3.8 ± 2.72 µg/L). The estimated daily intake for some participants was found to be higher than the suggested reference dose by USEPA for chronic exposure to CPF. Furthermore, the HQ>1 was obtained for 20% of the study population in Monte-Carlo analysis using USEPA chronic reference dose, indicating that chronic toxic effects are expected at least for a part of the target population. Based on the findings, proper measures should be taken to reduce the exposure of Iranian pregnant women to CPF and resultant health risks.

The role of dietary antioxidant index and index of nutritional quality in MS onset: finding from an Iranian population-based incident case-control study.

METHODS: This was a large population-based case-control study recruiting 547 incident cases and 1057 population controls between August 2013 and February 2015. DAI and INQ were calculated based on the adolescence dietary intake of the participants. Logistic regression was employed for estimating adjusted odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence interval in 2018. RESULTS: Participants with less than median DAI values had two-fold increased risk of MS onset (adjusted OR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.64-2.58, P < 0.001). A significant dose-response pattern for DAI (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI: 1.18-1.55, P for trend <0.001) was also detected. In the case of INQ, the strongest decreased risk were detected for vitamin D (OR = 0.09) and Zinc (OR = 0.34), followed by vitamin A (OR = 0.49), Calcium (OR = 0.49) and vitamin B6 (OR = 0.51) (All P-values < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Considering the inherent limitation of case-control designs, an appropriate intake of nutrient antioxidants may have a role in decreasing the likelihood of MS risk. Moreover, those with healthier diet assessed by index of nutritional quality were at decreased risk for MS.

Model Prediction for In-Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Case-Control Study in Isfahan, Iran.

The COVID-19 pandemic has now imposed an enormous global burden as well as a large mortality in a short time period. Although there is no promising treatment, identification of early predictors of in-hospital mortality would be critically important in reducing its worldwide mortality. We aimed to suggest a prediction model for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19. In this case-control study, we recruited 513 confirmed patients with COVID-19 from February 18 to March 26, 2020 from Isfahan COVID-19 registry. Based on extracted laboratory, clinical, and demographic data, we created an in-hospital mortality predictive model using gradient boosting. We also determined the diagnostic performance of the proposed model including sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) as well as their 95% CIs. Of 513 patients, there were 60 (11.7%) in-hospital deaths during the study period. The diagnostic values of the suggested model based on the gradient boosting method with oversampling techniques using all of the original data were specificity of 98.5% (95% CI: 96.8-99.4), sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 94-100), negative predictive value of 100% (95% CI: 99.2-100), positive predictive value of 89.6% (95% CI: 79.7-95.7), and an AUC of 98.6%. The suggested model may be useful in making decision to patient's hospitalization where the probability of mortality may be more obvious based on the final variable. However, moderate gaps in our knowledge of the predictors of in-hospital mortality suggest further studies aiming at predicting models for in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Estimating the Marginal Causal Effect and Potential Impact of Waterpipe Smoking on Risk of Multiple Sclerosis Using the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method: A Large, Population-Based Incident Case-Control Study.

There are few if any reports regarding the role of lifetime waterpipe smoking in the etiology of multiple sclerosis (MS). In a population-based incident case-control study conducted in Tehran, Iran, we investigated the association between waterpipe smoking and MS, adjusted for confounders. Cases (n = 547) were patients aged 15-50 years identified from the Iranian Multiple Sclerosis Society between 2013 and 2015. Population-based controls (n = 1,057) were persons aged 15-50 years recruited through random digit telephone dialing. A doubly robust estimation method, the targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE), was used to estimate the marginal risk ratio and odds ratio for the association between waterpipe smoking and MS. The estimated risk ratio and odds ratio were both 1.70 (95% confidence interval: 1.34, 2.17). The population attributable fraction was 21.4% (95% confidence interval: 4.0, 38.8). Subject to the limitations of case-control studies in interpreting associations causally, these results suggest that waterpipe use, or strongly related but undetermined factors, increases the risk of MS. Further epidemiologic studies, including nested case-control studies, are needed to confirm these findings.

The role of nutritional factors during adolescence in multiple sclerosis onset: a population-based incident case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: The potential role of nutritional factors in multiple sclerosis (MS) etiology is not clearly understood. The authors investigated the association between dietary intake during adolescence with MS. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a population-based incident case-control study in Iran with 547 incident cases and 1057 general population controls (7/8/2013-17/2/2015). Logistic regression was used to test differences in dietary intake between cases and controls adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: We found that a higher dietary consumption during adolescence of fresh fish, canned tuna, poultry, cheese, yogurt, butter, fruit, vegetables and a number of dietary supplements were associated with a significantly reduced risk of MS, while red meat, shrimp, and margarine were not associated with MS. Fresh fish had a dose-response association of 0.71 (0.58-0.88) per category increase, and consuming >0.5 serves of canned tuna fish per week had an OR of 0.72 (0.56-0.90); fruit intake had an OR of 0.82 (0.71-0.94) per category increase and cheese consumption an OR of 0.78 (0.67-0.91) per category increase. CONCLUSIONS: We identified that a higher intake of a number of food groups generally viewed as healthy were associated with a reduced risk of MS. A healthier diet during adolescence may be protective of developing MS.

The value of thoracic computed tomography scan comparing to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is the current pandemic causing massive morbidity and mortality worldwide. The gold standard diagnostic method in use is reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) which cannot be solely relied upon. Computed tomography (CT) scan is a method currently used for diagnosis of lung disease and can play a substantial role if proved helpful in COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted this study to evaluate the diagnostic value of CT scan compared to RT-PCR in the diagnosis of COVID-19. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We recruited 291 hospitalized patients suspicious of COVID-19 according to typical clinical findings during February-March 2020. The patients underwent CT-scan and RT-PCR procedures on the day of hospital admission. CT scans were reported by two radiologists as typical, indeterminate, negative, and atypical. Statistical indices were calculated twice: once considering "typical" and "indeterminate" categories as positive and the other time counting "typical" results as positive. RESULTS: The CT reports were classified as typical (64.95%), indeterminate (10.31%), atypical (11%), and negative (13.75%). Considering "typical" and "intermediate" as positive, sensitivity and specificity were 85.3% and 38.8%, respectively, and using the second assumption, the mentioned indices were 75.9% and 50.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: According to our study, CT results do not create enough diagnostic benefit and could result in incorrect confidence if negative. Since widely available, CT integration in the clinical process may be helpful in screening of suspected patients in epidemics. Yet, suspected patients should be isolated till confirmed by (multiple) PCRs.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Dietary inflammatory index and risk of multiple sclerosis: Findings from a large population-based incident case-control study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: For many decades diet, mainly its "pro-inflammatory" quality has been pondered as a possible risk factor for developing MS. However, the complexity of different dietary composition analysis provided controversial results. Recently a dietary inflammatory index (DII), a population-based score, was developed to objectify the inflammatory characteristics of a specific dietary intake. METHODS: We investigated the potential association between DII (expressed as energy adjusted-DII (E-DII) and non-energy adjusted DII (DII)) assessed from a validated FFQ based on the participants' diet habits during adolescence and the risk for developing MS in a population-based incident case-control study. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted. RESULTS: We recruited 547 incident MS cases and 1057 general population controls from Tehran, Iran (August 2013-February 2015). A statistically significant higher risk of MS was found in analyses using E-DII scores as a continuous variable with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-1.65, P = 0.001), and as a categorical variable (4th quartile OR 7.01, 95% CI: 4.87-10.1, vs the first quartile), test for trend; OR 1.86 (95% CI: 1.67-2.07), P for trend <0.001. A similar pattern was demonstrated for DII score and risk for MS. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a pro-inflammatory diet characterized by higher E-DII and DII scores during adolescence as a strong risk factor for MS onset. Given the worldwide role of diet in general population health, improving nutritional pattern through educational programs is likely to reduce MS risk.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.