Associations of neighborhood greenspace, and active living environments with autism spectrum disorders: A matched case-control study in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence links early life residential exposure to natural urban environmental attributes and positive health outcomes in children. However, few studies have focused on their protective effects on the risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The aim of this study was to investigate the associations of neighborhood greenspace, and active living environments during pregnancy with ASD in young children (≤6 years). METHODS: We conducted a population-based matched case-control study of singleton term births in Ontario, Canada for 2012-2016. The ASD and environmental data was generated using the Ontario Autism Spectrum Profile, the Better Outcomes Registry & Network Ontario, and Canadian Urban Environmental Health Research Consortium. We employed conditional logistic regressions to estimate the odds ratio (OR) between ASD and environmental factors characterizing selected greenspace metrics and neighborhoods conducive to active living (i.e., green view index (GVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), tree canopy, park proximity and active living environments index (ALE)). RESULTS: We linked 8643 mother-child pairs, including 1554 cases (18%). NDVI (OR 1.034, 0.944-1.024, per Inter Quartile Range [IQR] = 0.08), GVI (OR 1.025, 95% CI 0.953-1.087, per IQR = 9.45%), tree canopy (OR 0.992, 95% CI 0.903-1.089, per IQR = 6.24%) and the different categories of ALE were not associated with ASD in adjusted models for air pollution. In contrast, living closer to a park was protective (OR 0.888, 0.833-0.948, per 0.06 increase in park proximity index), when adjusted for air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: This study reported mixed findings showing both null and beneficial effects of green spaces and active living environments on ASD. Further investigations are warranted to elucidate the role of exposure to greenspaces and active living environments on the development of ASD.

Maternal First-Trimester Alpha-Fetoprotein and Placenta-Mediated Pregnancy Complications.

BACKGROUND: Maternal serum markers used for trisomy 21 screening are associated with placenta-mediated complications. Recently, there has been a transition from the traditional first-trimester screening (FTS) that included PAPP-A (pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A) and beta-hCG (human chorionic gonadotropin), to the enhanced FTS test, which added first-trimester AFP (alpha-fetoprotein) and PlGF (placental growth factor). However, whether elevated first-trimester AFP has a similar association with placenta-mediated complications to that observed for elevated second-trimester AFP remains unclear. Our objective was to estimate the association of first-trimester AFP with placenta-mediated complications and compare it with the corresponding associations of second-trimester AFP and other first-trimester serum markers. METHODS: Retrospective population-based cohort study of women who underwent trisomy 21 screening in Ontario, Canada (2013-2019). The association of first-trimester AFP with placenta-mediated complications was estimated and compared with that of the traditional serum markers. The primary outcome was a composite of stillbirth or preterm placental complications (preeclampsia, birthweight less than third centile, or placental abruption). RESULTS: A total of 244 990 and 96 167 women underwent FTS and enhanced FTS test screening, respectively. All markers were associated with the primary outcome, but the association for elevated first-trimester AFP (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.57 [95% CI, 1.37-1.81]) was weaker than that observed for low PAPP-A (aRR, 2.48 [95% CI, 2.2-2.8]), low PlGF (aRR, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.97-2.64]), and elevated second-trimester AFP (aRR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.81-2.15]). When the models were adjusted for all 4 enhanced FTS test markers, elevated first-trimester AFP was no longer associated with the primary outcome (aRR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.58-1.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Unlike second-trimester AFP, elevated first-trimester AFP is not an independent risk factor for placenta-mediated complications.

Maternal age and pregnancy outcomes in twin compared with singleton gestations.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association of advanced maternal age with pregnancy complications in twin pregnancies and compare it with that observed in singleton pregnancies. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study of all patients with a singleton or twin hospital birth in Ontario, Canada, between 2012 and 2019. The primary outcome was preterm birth (PTB) less than 34 weeks. Pregnancy outcomes were stratified by maternal age groups in twin pregnancies and, separately, in singleton pregnancies. RESULTS: A total of 935 378 patients met the study criteria: 920503 (98.4%) had a singleton pregnancy and 14 875 (1.6%) had twins. In singletons, the rate of PTB less than 34 weeks increased progressively with increasing maternal age and was highest for patients aged 45 years or more (3.4%; adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.33). By contrast, in twins, although the rate of PTB less than 34 was highest patients under 20 years of age (25.3%) and was lowest among patients aged 35-39 years (11.7%), the associations between maternal age group and the risk of PTB were not statistically significant in the adjusted analysis. CONCLUSION: Although the absolute rates of pregnancy complications are higher in twin pregnancies, there are considerable differences in the relationship between maternal age and the risk of certain complications between twin and singleton pregnancies.

Practice Variation among Canadian Stroke Prevention Clinics: Pre, During, and Post-COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a common and serious disorder. With optimal care, 90-day recurrent stroke risk can be reduced from 10% to about 1%. Stroke prevention clinics (SPCs) can improve patient outcomes and resource allocation but lack standardization in patient management. The extent of variation in patient management among SPCs is unknown. Our aims were to assess baseline practice variation between Canadian SPCs and the impact of COVID-19 on SPC patient care. METHODS: We conducted an electronic survey of 80 SPCs across Canada from May to November 2021. SPC leads were contacted by email with up to five reminders. RESULTS: Of 80 SPCs contacted, 76 were eligible from which 38 (50.0%) responded. The majority (65.8%) of SPCs are open 5 or more days a week. Tests are more likely to be completed before the SPC visit if referrals were from clinic's own emergency department compared to other referring sources. COVID-19 had a negative impact on routine patient care including longer wait times (increased for 36.4% clinics) and higher number of patients without completed bloodwork prior to arriving for appointments (increased for 27.3% clinics). During COVID-19 pandemic, 87.9% of SPCs provided virtual care while 72.7% plan to continue with virtual care post-COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Despite the time-sensitive nature of transient ischemic attack patient management, some SPCs in Canada are not able to see patients quickly. SPCs should endeavor to implement strategies so that they can see high-risk patients within the highest risk timeline and implement strategies to complete some tests while waiting for SPC appointment.

Quality and transparency of reporting derivation and validation prognostic studies of recurrent stroke in patients with TIA and minor stroke: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Clinical prediction models/scores help clinicians make optimal evidence-based decisions when caring for their patients. To critically appraise such prediction models for use in a clinical setting, essential information on the derivation and validation of the models needs to be transparently reported. In this systematic review, we assessed the quality of reporting of derivation and validation studies of prediction models for the prognosis of recurrent stroke in patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke. METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to February 04, 2020. Studies reporting development or validation of multivariable prognostic models predicting recurrent stroke within 90 days in patients with TIA or minor stroke were included. Included studies were appraised for reporting quality and conduct using a select list of items from the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Statement. RESULTS: After screening 7026 articles, 60 eligible articles were retained, consisting of 100 derivation and validation studies of 27 unique prediction models. Four models were newly derived while 23 were developed by validating and updating existing models. Of the 60 articles, 15 (25%) reported an informative title. Among the 100 derivation and validation studies, few reported whether assessment of the outcome (24%) and predictors (12%) was blinded. Similarly, sample size justifications (49%), description of methods for handling missing data (16.1%), and model calibration (5%) were seldom reported. Among the 96 validation studies, 17 (17.7%) clearly reported on similarity (in terms of setting, eligibility criteria, predictors, and outcomes) between the validation and the derivation datasets. Items with the highest prevalence of adherence were the source of data (99%), eligibility criteria (93%), measures of discrimination (81%) and study setting (65%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of derivation and validation studies for the prognosis of recurrent stroke in TIA and minor stroke patients suffer from poor reporting quality. We recommend that all prediction model derivation and validation studies follow the TRIPOD statement to improve transparency and promote uptake of more reliable prediction models in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol for this review was registered with PROSPERO (Registration number CRD42020201130 ).

Attitudes and acceptability of organ and tissue donation registration in the emergency department: a national survey of emergency physicians.

PURPOSE: There is a worldwide shortage of organs for transplantation. One method to increase the number of organs available for transplant is to increase the number of registered organ donors. The emergency department (ED) may be a suitable venue to disseminate knowledge to patients about organ donation, and to offer an immediate or future opportunity to register as an organ donor. This study aimed to assess emergency physicians' attitudes and acceptability of an ED-based organ donation registration initiative. METHODS: We developed and distributed a national postal survey using a modified Dillman's tailored design technique to a random sample of emergency physicians selected from the Canadian Medical Directory. RESULTS: From a total of 474 delivered surveys, we received 228 responses (48.1%). 98.5% of emergency physicians support the concept of deceased organ donation. 85.1% felt that the emergency department is an appropriate setting to disseminate information regarding organ donation and 77.6% felt that it is an appropriate location to offer an immediate opportunity to register as an organ donor. 74.1% of physicians who responded report to be personally registered as an organ donor. CONCLUSION: Most emergency physicians are supportive of organ donation promotion in the ED, including offering an immediate opportunity to register.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Il y a une pénurie mondiale d'organes destinés à la transplantation. Une méthode pour augmenter le nombre d'organes disponibles pour la transplantation est d'augmenter le nombre de donneurs d'organes enregistrés. Le service des urgences (SU) peut être un lieu approprié pour informer les patients sur le don d'organes et leur offrir la possibilité, immédiate ou future, de s'inscrire comme donneur d'organes. Cette étude visait à évaluer les attitudes des médecins urgentistes et l'acceptabilité d'une initiative d'enregistrement des dons d'organes aux urgences. MéTHODES: Nous avons élaboré et distribué une enquête postale nationale en utilisant une technique modifiée de conception sur mesure de Dillman à un échantillon aléatoire de médecins urgentistes sélectionnés à partir de l'annuaire médical canadien. RéSULTATS: Sur un total de 474 questionnaires remis, nous avons reçu 228 réponses (48,1%). 98,5 % des médecins urgentistes soutiennent le concept du don d'organes de personnes décédées. 85,1 % ont estimé que le service des urgences est un lieu approprié pour diffuser des informations sur le don d'organes et 77,6 % ont estimé que c'est un lieu approprié pour offrir une possibilité immédiate de s'inscrire comme donneur d'organes. 74,1 % des médecins qui ont répondu déclarent être personnellement inscrits comme donneurs d'organes. CONCLUSION: La plupart des médecins urgentistes sont favorables à la promotion du don d'organes dans les urgences, notamment en offrant la possibilité de s'inscrire immédiatement.

Effect of prenotification on the response rate of a postal survey of emergency physicians: a randomised, controlled, assessor-blind trial.

OBJECTIVES: Response rates to physician surveys are typically low. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a prenotification letter on the response rate of a postal survey of emergency physicians. DESIGN: This was a substudy of a national, cross-sectional postal survey sent to emergency physicians in Canada. We randomised participants to either receive a postal prenotification letter prior to the survey, or to no prenotification letter. PARTICIPANTS: A random sample of 500 emergency physicians in Canada. Participants were selected from the Canadian Medical Directory, a national medical directory which lists more than 99% of practising physicians in Canada. INTERVENTIONS: Using computer-generated randomisation, physicians were randomised in a concealed fashion to receive a prenotification letter approximately 1 week prior to the survey, or to not receive a prenotification letter. All physicians received an unconditional incentive of a $3 coffee card with the survey instrument. In both groups, non-respondents were sent reminder surveys approximately every 14 days and a special contact using Xpresspost during the final contact attempt. OUTCOME: The primary outcome was the survey response rate. RESULTS: 201 of 447 eligible physicians returned the survey (45.0%). Of 231 eligible physicians contacted in the prenotification group, 80 (34.6%) returned the survey and among 237 eligible physicians contacted in the no-prenotification group, 121 (51.1%) returned the survey (absolute difference in proportions 16.5%, 95% CI 2.5 to 30.5, p=0.01). CONCLUSION: Inclusion of a prenotification letter resulted in a lower response rate in this postal survey of emergency physicians. Given the added costs, time and effort required to send a prenotification letter, this study suggests that it may be more effective to omit the prenotification letter in physician postal surveys.

Predictors of neurologists confirming or overturning emergency physicians' diagnosis of TIA or stroke.

BACKGROUND: Transient ischemic attack (TIA) and non-disabling stroke are common emergency department (ED) presentations. Currently, there are no prospective multicenter studies determining predictors of neurologists confirming a diagnosis of cerebral ischemia in patients discharged with a diagnosis of TIA or stroke. The objectives were to (1) calculate the concordance between emergency physicians and neurologists for the outcome of diagnosing TIA or stroke, and (2) identify characteristics associated with neurologists diagnosing a stroke mimic. METHODS: This was a planned sub-study of a prospective cohort study at 14 Canadian EDs enrolling patients diagnosed with TIA or non-disabling stroke from 2006 to 2017. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with neurologists' diagnosis of cerebral ischemia. Our primary outcome was the composite outcome of cerebral ischemia (TIA or non-disabling stroke) based on the neurologists' assessment. RESULTS: The diagnosis of cerebral ischemia was confirmed by neurologists in 5794 patients (55.4%). The most common identified stroke mimics were migraine (18%), peripheral vertigo (7%), syncope (4%), and seizure (3%). Over a third of patients (38.4%) ultimately had an undetermined aetiology for their symptoms. The strongest predictors of cerebral ischemia confirmation were infarct on CT (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.65-2.02), advanced age (OR comparing 75th-25th percentiles 1.67, 1.55-1.80), language disturbance (OR 1.92, 1.75-2.10), and smoking (OR 1.67, 1.46-1.91). The strongest predictors of stroke mimics were syncope (OR 0.59, 0.48-0.72), vertigo (OR 0.52, 0.45-0.59), bilateral symptoms (OR 0.60, 0.50-0.72), and confusion (OR 0.50, 0.44-0.57). CONCLUSION: Physicians should have a high index of suspicion of cerebral ischemia in patients with advanced age, smoking history, language disturbance, or infarcts on CT. Physicians should discriminate in which patients to pursue stroke investigations on when deemed at minimal risk of cerebral ischemia, including those with isolated vertigo, syncope, or bilateral symptoms.

RéSUMé: CONTEXTE: L'accident ischémique transitoire (AIT) et l'accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC) non invalidant sont des présentations courantes dans les services d'urgence. Actuellement, il n'existe pas d'études prospectives multicentriques déterminant les facteurs prédictifs de la confirmation par les neurologues d'un diagnostic d'ischémie cérébrale chez les patients sortis de l'hôpital avec un diagnostic d'AIT ou d'AVC. Les objectifs étaient de (1) calculer la concordance entre les urgentistes et les neurologues pour le résultat du diagnostic de l'AIT ou de l'AVC, et (2) identifier les caractéristiques associées au diagnostic par les neurologues d'une imitation d'AVC. MéTHODES: Il s'agissait d'une sous-étude planifiée d'une étude de cohorte prospective dans 14 services d'urgence canadiens recrutant des patients diagnostiqués avec un AIT ou un AVC non invalidant de 2006 à 2017. Une régression logistique a été utilisée pour identifier les facteurs associés au diagnostic d'ischémie cérébrale par les neurologues. Notre résultat principal était le résultat composite de l'ischémie cérébrale (AIT ou accident vasculaire cérébral non invalidant) selon l'évaluation des neurologues. RéSULTATS: Le diagnostic d'ischémie cérébrale a été confirmé par des neurologues chez 5 794 patients (55,4 %). Les imitateurs d'AVC identifiés les plus courants étaient la migraine (18 %), le vertige périphérique (7 %), la syncope (4 %) et les convulsions (3 %). Plus d'un tiers des patients (38,4 %) avaient finalement une étiologie indéterminée pour leurs symptômes. Les prédicteurs les plus forts de la confirmation de l'ischémie cérébrale étaient l'infarctus au scanner (OR 1.83, IC 95 % 1.65­2.02), l'âge avancé (OR comparant les 75e et 25e percentiles 1.67, 1.55­1.80), les troubles du langage (OR 1.92, 1.75­2.10) et le tabagisme (OR 1.67, 1.46­1.91). Les prédicteurs les plus forts d'imitateurs d'AVC étaient la syncope (OR 0.59, 0.48­0.72), le vertige (OR 0.52, 0.45­0.59), les symptômes bilatéraux (OR 0.60, 0.50­0.72) et la confusion (OR 0.50, 0.44­0.57). CONCLUSION: Les médecins devraient avoir un indice élevé de suspicion d'ischémie cérébrale chez les patients ayant un âge avancé, des antécédents de tabagisme, des troubles du langage ou des infarctus au scanner. Les médecins doivent distinguer les patients sur lesquels poursuivre des investigations sur un AVC lorsqu'ils sont jugés à risque minimal d'ischémie cérébrale, y compris ceux présentant des vertiges isolés, une syncope ou des symptômes bilatéraux.

Outcomes Associated With Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy in Twin Compared With Singleton Gestations.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether pregnancy outcomes associated with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in twin pregnancies differ relatively from those in singleton pregnancy. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study of all women with a liveborn singleton or twin hospital birth in Ontario, Canada, between 2012 and 2019. Data were obtained from the Better Outcomes Registry & Network Ontario. Pregnancy outcomes were compared between women with and without hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in twin gestations, and separately in singleton gestations. Adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and 95% CIs were generated using modified Poisson regression and were compared between twins and singletons using relative risk ratios. RESULTS: Overall, 932,218 women met the study criteria, of whom 917,542 (98.4%) and 14,676 (1.6%) had singleton and twin gestations, respectively. The incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy was higher in women with twin compared with singleton gestations (14.4% vs 6.4%, aRR 1.85 [1.76-1.94]). Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were associated with certain adverse outcomes in singleton gestations only and with other adverse outcomes in both the singleton and twin gestations, but the aRR was lower in twins. For example, preterm birth before 37 weeks of gestation (singletons: 15.2% [hypertensive disorders of pregnancy] vs 5.4% [no hypertensive disorders of pregnancy], aRR 2.42; twins: 67.5% [hypertensive disorders of pregnancy] vs 50.4% [no hypertensive disorders of pregnancy], aRR 1.30) and neonatal respiratory morbidity (singletons: 16.3% [hypertensive disorders of pregnancy] vs 8.7% [no hypertensive disorders of pregnancy], aRR 1.50; twins: 39.8% [hypertensive disorders of pregnancy] vs 32.7% [no hypertensive disorders of pregnancy], aRR 1.13). These findings persisted in the subgroups of women with preeclampsia and early-onset preeclampsia. CONCLUSIONS: Although the absolute risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes is higher in twin compared with singleton pregnancies, the incremental risk of adverse outcomes associated with hypertensive disorders in twin pregnancies is lower than the incremental risk in singleton pregnancies. These findings may be attributed in part to the higher baseline risk of preterm birth and adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in twin compared with singleton pregnancies.

Changes in rate of preterm birth and adverse pregnancy outcomes attributed to preeclampsia after introduction of a refined definition of preeclampsia: A population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Since 2013, various guidelines for hypertension in pregnancy have been refined, no longer requiring proteinuria as a requisite criterion for preeclampsia. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the new definition on preterm birth (PTB) and adverse pregnancy outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Women delivering in Ontario between April 2012 and November 2016 were included. Delivery <24+0/7 weeks, major fetal anomalies or preexisting renal disease were excluded. The primary outcome was livebirth <37, <34 or <32 weeks. Rates, adjusted rate ratios (aRR) and ratio of the rate ratio (RRR) were used to compare outcomes in the 2 years after the new Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada (SOGC) guideline (December 2014-November 2016; period 2) vs the 2 years before (April 2012-March 2014; period 1), among women with and without preeclampsia. RESULTS: In all, 268 543 and 267 964 births in periods 1 & 2, respectively, were included. Respective preeclampsia rates increased significantly from 3.9% to 4.4% (p < 0.001), with no change in maternal morbidity rates. In preeclamptic women, respective rates of PTB <37 weeks were 21.0% and 20.7% (aRR 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.02), with significant aRR for PTB <34 (0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.96) and <32 weeks (0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.94). A similar aRR was observed in women without preeclampsia. In preeclamptic women, composite severe neonatal morbidity decreased after guideline change (aRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99), a finding not observed in women without preeclampsia (RRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: The new definition of preeclampsia was associated with increased disease rates, a modest reduction in adverse neonatal outcomes and no change in maternal outcomes.

Prospective validation of Canadian TIA Score and comparison with ABCD2 and ABCD2i for subsequent stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack: multicentre prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the previously derived Canadian TIA Score to stratify subsequent stroke risk in a new cohort of emergency department patients with transient ischaemic attack. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 13 Canadian emergency departments over five years. PARTICIPANTS: 7607 consecutively enrolled adult patients attending the emergency department with transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was subsequent stroke or carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting within seven days. The secondary outcome was subsequent stroke within seven days (with or without carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting). Telephone follow-up used the validated Questionnaire for Verifying Stroke Free Status at seven and 90 days. All outcomes were adjudicated by panels of three stroke experts, blinded to the index emergency department visit. RESULTS: Of the 7607 patients, 108 (1.4%) had a subsequent stroke within seven days, 83 (1.1%) had carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting within seven days, and nine had both. The Canadian TIA Score stratified the risk of stroke, carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting, or both within seven days as low (risk ≤0.5%; interval likelihood ratio 0.20, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.44), medium (risk 2.3%; interval likelihood ratio 0.94, 0.85 to 1.04), and high (risk 5.9% interval likelihood ratio 2.56, 2.02 to 3.25) more accurately (area under the curve 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.73) than did the ABCD2 (0.60, 0.55 to 0.64) or ABCD2i (0.64, 0.59 to 0.68). Results were similar for subsequent stroke regardless of carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting within seven days. CONCLUSION: The Canadian TIA Score stratifies patients' seven day risk for stroke, with or without carotid endarterectomy/carotid artery stenting, and is now ready for clinical use. Incorporating this validated risk estimate into management plans should improve early decision making at the index emergency visit regarding benefits of hospital admission, timing of investigations, and prioritisation of specialist referral.

Early identification of the need for major intervention in patients with traumatic hemorrhage: development and internal validation of a simple bleeding score.

BACKGROUND: Failure to rapidly identify bleeding in trauma patients leads to substantial morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop and validate a simple bedside score for identifying bleeding patients requiring escalation of care beyond initial resuscitation. METHODS: We included patients with major blunt or penetrating trauma, defined as those with an Injury Severity Score greater than 12 or requiring trauma team activation, at The Ottawa Hospital from September 2014 to September 2017. We used logistic regression for derivation. The primary outcome was a composite of the need for massive transfusion, embolization or surgery for hemostasis. We prespecified clinical, laboratory and imaging predictors using findings from our prior systematic review and survey of Canadian traumatologists. We used an AIC-based stepdown procedure based on the Akaike information criterion and regression coefficients to create a 5-variable score for bedside application. We used bootstrap internal validation to assess optimism-corrected performance. RESULTS: We included 890 patients, of whom 133 required a major intervention. The main model comprised systolic blood pressure, clinical examination findings suggestive of hemorrhage, lactate level, focused assessment with sonography in trauma (FAST) and computed tomographic imaging. The C statistic was 0.95, optimism-corrected to 0.94. A simplified Canadian Bleeding (CAN-BLEED) score was devised. A score cut-off of 2 points yielded sensitivity of 97.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 93.6 to 99.5) and specificity 73.2% (95% CI 69.9 to 76.3). An alternative version that included mechanism of injury rather than CT had lower discriminative ability (C statistic = 0.89). CONCLUSION: A simple yet promising bleeding score is proposed to identify highrisk patients in need of major intervention for traumatic bleeding and determine the appropriateness of early transfer to specialized trauma centres. Further research is needed to evaluate the performance of the score in other settings, define interrater reliability and evaluate the potential for reduction of time to intervention.

CONTEXTE: Les délais dans la détection des saignements actifs chez les patients en traumatologie entraînent une morbidité et une mortalité élevées. L'objectif était d'élaborer et de valider une échelle simple, à utiliser en contexte clinique pour repérer les patients qui présentent un saignement actif et qui nécessitent une intensification des soins après la réanimation initiale. MÉTHODES: Les critères d'inclusion étaient les suivants : admission à l'Hôpital d'Ottawa entre septembre 2014 et septembre 2017 pour un traumatisme contondant ou pénétrant, et score de gravité de la blessure supérieur à 12 ou mobilisation de l'équipe de traumatologie. Nous avons fait la dérivation par régression logistique. Le principal critère d'évaluation était la nécessité d'une transfusion massive, d'une embolisation ou d'une opération pour rétablir l'hémostase. Nous avons établi les facteurs prédictifs décelables en clinique, en laboratoire et à l'imagerie en fonction des résultats que nous avons obtenus dans le cadre d'une revue systématique et d'un sondage mené auprès de traumatologues canadiens. Nous avons utilisé une procédure avec ajustement selon le critère d'information d'Akaike (AIC) et des coefficients de régression afin de créer une échelle à 5 variables applicable en contexte clinique. Pour ce qui est de la validation interne, nous avons ajusté les valeurs dites « optimistes ¼ à l'aide de la méthode d'autoamorçage (bootstrap). RÉSULTATS: Nous avons inclus 890 patients, dont 133 nécessitaient une intervention majeure. Le modèle de base intégrait la pression artérielle systolique, les constatations cliniques indiquant une hémorragie, le taux de lactate, les résultats de l'échographie ciblée en traumatologie (FAST) et les résultats de la tomodensitométrie (TMD). La statistique C s'élevait à 0,95 (0,94 après ajustement). Nous avons conçu une échelle canadienne simplifiée d'évaluation des saignements actifs (CANBLEED). Un seuil de 2 points a généré une sensibilité de 97,7 % (intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 % de 93,6 à 99,5) et une spécificité de 73,2 % (IC à 95 % de 69,9 à 76,3). Une deuxième version, qui tient compte du mécanisme de blessure plutôt que des résultats de la TMD, avait un pouvoir de discrimination inférieur (statistique C = 0,89). CONCLUSION: Nous proposons une échelle d'évaluation des saignements actifs simple, mais prometteuse. Celle-ci vise à repérer les patients à haut risque qui nécessitent une intervention majeure pour un saignement d'origine traumatique ainsi qu'à déterminer la pertinence d'un transfert précoce dans un centre de traumatologie. Des études complémentaires seront nécessaires afin d'évaluer l'échelle dans d'autres milieux, d'établir sa fiabilité interévaluateurs et d'évaluer le potentiel de réduction des délais d'intervention.

Prospective Implementation of the Ottawa Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Rule and 6-Hour Computed Tomography Rule.

Background and Purpose- The Ottawa subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) rule identifies patients with headache requiring no testing for SAH, while the 6-hour computed tomography (CT) rule guides when to forgo a lumbar puncture. Our objectives were to: (1) estimate the clinical impact of the Ottawa SAH rule and the 6-hour-CT rule on testing rates (ie, CT, lumbar puncture, CT angiography); (2) validate the 6-hour-CT rule for SAH when applied prospectively in a new cohort of patients. Methods- We conducted a multicenter prospective before/after implementation study from 2011 to 2016 with 6 months follow-up at 6 tertiary-care Canadian Academic Emergency Departments. Consecutive alert, neurologically intact adults with headache were included. For intervention period, physicians were given a 1-hour lecture, pocket cards, posters were installed, and physicians indicated Ottawa SAH rule criteria when ordering CTs. SAH was defined by blood on CT, xanthochromia in cerebrospinal fluid, or >1×106/L red blood cells in cerebrospinal fluid with aneurysm. Results- We enrolled 3672 patients, 1743 before and 1929 after implementation, including 188 with SAH. Proportions undergoing CT was unchanged (88.0% versus 87.5%; P=0.643). Lumbar puncture use decreased (38.9% versus 25.9%; P<0.0001). Additional testing following CT (ie, lumbar puncture or CT angiography) decreased (51.3% versus 42.2%; P<0.0001). Admissions declined (9.8% versus 7.4%; P=0.011). Mean emergency department stay was unchanged (6.3±4.0 versus 6.4±4.2 hours; P=0.685). The Ottawa SAH rule was 100% (95% CI, 98.1%-100%) sensitive, and the 6-hour-CT rule was 95.5% (95% CI, 89.8-98.5) sensitive for SAH. The 6-hour-CT rule missed 5 SAHs: 1 radiology misread, 2 incidental aneurysms, 1 nonaneurysmal cause, and 1 profoundly anemic patient. Conclusions- The Ottawa SAH rule and the 6-hour-CT rule are highly sensitive and can be used routinely when SAH is considered in patients with headache. Implementing both rules was associated with a meaningful decrease in testing and admissions to hospital.

Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

National survey of family physicians to define functional decline in elderly patients with minor trauma.

BACKGROUND: Failing to assess elderly patients for functional decline at the time around a minor injury may result in adverse health outcomes. This study was conducted to define what constitutes clinically significant functional decline and the sensitivity required for a clinical decision instrument to identify such functional decline after an injury in previously independent elderly patients. METHODS: After a thorough development process, a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 178 family physicians. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. RESULTS: From 143 eligible surveys, we received 67 completed surveys (response rate, 46.9 %). Respondents indicated that a drop of at least 3 points on the 28-point Older Americans Resources and Services (OARS) ADL Scale was considered clinically significant by 90 % of physicians. Ninety percent (90 %) of physicians would be satisfied with a sensitivity of 90 % or more for a clinical decision instrument to detect patients at risk of functional decline at 6 months following an injury. The majority of family physicians do not routinely assess the majority of the tasks on the OARS scale for injured elderly patients. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of physicians (90 %) would consider a drop of 3 points on the OARS ADL Scale as significant to define functional decline and would be satisfied with a sensitivity of 90 % for a clinical decision instrument to detect such a decline. Any instrument to identify patients at elevated risk for subsequent decline should consider these outcome measures to be clinically useful.

National Survey of Geriatricians to Define Functional Decline in Elderly People with Minor Trauma.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to determine a clinically significant point drop in function to define functional decline and the required sensitivity for a clinical decision tool to identify elderly patients at high risk of functional decline following a minor injury. METHODS: After a rigorous development process, a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 178 geriatricians selected from those registered in a national medical directory. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. RESULTS: We obtained a satisfactory response rate of 70.5%. Ninety percent of the geriatricians required a sensitivity of 90% or less for a clinical decision tool to identify injured seniors at high risk of functional decline 6 months post injury. Our results indicate that 90% of the respondents considered a drop in function of at least 2 points in activities of daily living (ADL) as clinically significant when considering all 14 ADL items. Considering only the 7 basic ADL items, 90% of physicians considered a 1 point drop as clinically significant. CONCLUSIONS: A tool with a sensitivity of 90% to detect patients at risk of functional decline at 6 months post minor injury would meet or exceed the sensitivity required by 90% of geriatric specialists. These findings clearly define what is a clinically significant decline following a "minor injury."

National survey of emergency physicians for transient ischemic attack (TIA) risk stratification consensus and appropriate treatment for a given level of risk.

INTRODUCTION: Five percent of transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients have a subsequent stroke within 7 days. The Canadian TIA Score uses clinical findings to calculate the subsequent stroke risk within 7 days. Our objectives were to assess 1) anticipated use; 2) component face validity; 3) risk strata for stroke within 7 days; and 4) actions required, for a given risk for subsequent stroke. METHODS: After a rigorous development process, a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 300 emergency physicians selected from those registered in a national medical directory. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. RESULTS: From a total of 271 eligible surveys, we received 131 (48.3%) completed surveys; 96.2% of emergency physicians would use a validated Canadian TIA Score; 8 of 13 components comprising the Canadian TIA Score were rated as Very Important or Important by survey respondents. Risk categories for subsequent stroke were defined as minimal-risk: 10% risk of subsequent stroke within 7 days. CONCLUSION: A validated Canadian TIA Score will likely be used by emergency physicians. Most components of the TIA Score have high face validity. Risk strata are definable, which may allow physicians to determine immediate actions, based on subsequent stroke risk, in the emergency department.

National Survey of Neurologists for Transient Ischemic Attack Risk Stratification Consensus and Appropriate Treatment for a Given Level of Risks.

BACKGROUND: Patients with a new transient ischemic attack (TIA) have a 5% subsequent stroke risk within 7 days. The Canadian TIA Score accurately determines the risk of subsequent stroke risk; however, it is unclear if physicians will use this new scale or how it will be used. Our objectives were to assess: (1) anticipated use; (2) component face validity; (3) risk strata for stroke within 7 days; and (4) actions required, for a given risk for subsequent stroke based on the proposed Canadian TIA Score. METHODS: After a rigorous development process (sample selection, key informant interviews, development of questionnaire following Dillman Tailored Design technique, cognitive interviews, and pilot-testing), a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 300 neurologists selected from all neurologists listed in a national medical directory. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. RESULTS: From a total of 265 eligible surveys, we received 140 (52.8%) completed surveys; 7 of 13 components comprising the Canadian TIA Score were rated as "very important" or "important" by survey respondents. Risk categories for subsequent stroke were defined as: minimal risk: less than 1%; low risk: 2%-4.9%; high risk: 5%-10%; critical risk: more than 10% risk of subsequent stroke within 7 days. Most (87.1%) of the neurologists would use a validated Canadian TIA Score. CONCLUSIONS: Neurologists appear ready to use a validated Canadian TIA Score in their clinical practice. Risk strata are definable, which may allow physicians to determine immediate actions, based on subsequent stroke risk.

National Survey of Emergency Physicians to Define Functional Decline in Elderly Patients with Minor Trauma.

BACKGROUND: There are a number of screening tools to predict return to the emergency department (ED) in elderly trauma patients, but none exist to specifically screen for functional decline after a minor injury. The objective of this study was to identify outcome measures for a possible future clinical decision rule to be used in the ED to identify previously independent patients at high risk of functional decline at six months post minor injury. METHODS: After a rigorous development process, a survey instrument was administered to a random sample of 178 emergency physicians using the Dillman's Tailored Design Method. RESULTS: Of 156 eligible surveys, we received 81 completed surveys (response rate 51.9%). Considering all 14 activities of daily living (ADL) items, 90% of physicians deemed a minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in function to be at least three points on the 28-point Older Americans Resources and Services (OARS) ADL Scale as clinically significant. A tool with a sensitivity of 93% to detect patients at risk of functional decline at six months post injury would meet or exceed the sensitivity deemed to be required by 90% of physicians. The majority of emergency physicians do not assess elderly injured patients for the majority of the tasks. CONCLUSIONS: A drop of three points on the 28-point OARS ADL Scale would be deemed clinically important by the vast majority of emergency physicians. Further, a sensitivity of 93% for a clinical decision tool would satisfy the MCID requirements of the vast majority of emergency physicians. There appears to be a gap between physician knowledge and actual practice. We intend to use these findings in the development of a clinical decision rule to identify high-risk elderly trauma patients.