Health system lessons from the global fund-supported procurement and supply chain investments in Zimbabwe: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Fund partnered with the Zimbabwean government to provide end-to-end support to strengthen the procurement and supply chain within the health system. This was accomplished through a series of strategic investments that included infrastructure and fleet improvement, training of personnel, modern equipment acquisition and warehouse optimisation. This assessment sought to determine the effects of the project on the health system. METHODS: This study employed a mixed methods design combining quantitative and qualitative research methods. The quantitative part entailed a descriptive analysis of procurement and supply chain data from the Zimbabwe healthcare system covering 2018 - 2021. The qualitative part comprised key informant interviews using a structured interview guide. Informants included health system stakeholders privy to the Global Fund-supported initiatives in Zimbabwe. The data collected through the interviews were transcribed in full and subjected to thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Approximately 90% of public health facilities were covered by the procurement and distribution system. Timeliness of order fulfillment (within 90 days) at the facility level improved from an average of 42% to over 90% within the 4-year implementation period. Stockout rates for HIV drugs and test kits declined by 14% and 49% respectively. Population coverage for HIV treatment for both adults and children remained consistently high despite the increasing prevalence of people living with HIV. The value of expired commodities was reduced by 93% over the 4-year period. Majority of the system stakeholders interviewed agreed that support from Global Fund was instrumental in improving the country's procurement and supply chain capacity. Key areas include improved infrastructure and equipment, data and information systems, health workforce and financing. Many of the participants also cited the Global Fund-supported warehouse optimization as critical to improving inventory management practices. CONCLUSION: It is imperative for governments and donors keen to strengthen health systems to pay close attention to the procurement and distribution of medicines and health commodities. There is need to collaborate through joint planning and implementation to optimize the available resources. Organizational autonomy and sharing of best practices in management while strengthening accountability systems are fundamentally important in the efforts to build institutional capacity.

Assessment of the Global Fund-supported procurement and supply chain reforms at the Ethiopian Pharmaceuticals Supply Agency: a mixed-methods study.

OBJECTIVE: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) partnered with the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Agency (EPSA) in 2018-2019 to reform procurement and supply chain management (PSCM) procedures within the Ethiopian healthcare system. This assessment sought to determine the impact of the reforms and document the lessons learnt. DESIGN: Mixed-methods study incorporating qualitative and quantitative analysis. Purposive and snowballing sampling techniques were applied for the qualitative methods, and the data collected was transcribed in full and subjected to thematic content analysis. Descriptive analysis was applied to quantitative data. SETTING: The study was based in Ethiopia and focused on the EPSA operations nationally between 2017 and 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-five Ethiopian healthcare decision-makers and health workers. INTERVENTION: Global Fund training programme for health workers and infrastructural improvements OUTCOMES: Operational and financial measures for healthcare PSCM. RESULTS: The availability of antiretrovirals, tuberculosis and malaria medicines, and other related commodities, remained consistently high. Line fill rate and forecast accuracy were average. Between 2018 and 2021, procurement lead times for HIV and malaria-related orders reduced by 43.0% relative to other commodities that reported an increase. Many interview respondents recognised the important role of the Global Fund support in improving the performance of EPSA and provided specific attributions to the observed successes. However, they were also clear that more needs to be done in specific critical areas such as financing, strategic reorganisation, data and information management systems. CONCLUSION: The Global Fund-supported initiatives led to improvements in the EPSA performance, despite several persistent challenges. To sustain and secure the gains achieved so far through Global Fund support and make progress, it is important that various stakeholders, including the government and the donor community, work together to support EPSA in delivering on its core mandate within the Ethiopian health system.

Lay counsellors' experiences of administering the AUDIT-C as a brief screening tool in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: South Africa presents one of the riskiest patterns of alcohol consumption, with per capita consumption above the African regional average. Globally, there has been an increased focus on the potential of appointing lay counsellors to administer alcohol intervention strategies in resource-limited contexts. Given the increasing need for relevant and efficient intervention strategies in response to high-risk alcohol consumption, screening instruments such as the AUDIT-C have gained increased attention. METHODS: This paper explores the experiences of 15 lay counsellors in response to the training received on how to administer the AUDIT-C instrument, as well as provide interventions such as brief advice or an appropriate referral, in the resource-limited South African township of Alexandra, Johannesburg. A focus group was facilitated for this purpose and, thereafter, a thematic content analysis was applied to identify the themes most central to the lay counsellors' experiences. RESULTS: The research findings suggest that the lay counsellors perceived the training to be adequate in preparing them for administrating the AUDIT-C and for providing any relevant interventions, and that their confidence in administering the instrument developed as the project progressed. However, recruitment and administration challenges were experienced in primary healthcare and community settings, and lay counsellors perceived home visits to be more appropriate with respect to issues related to confidentiality and stigmatisation. CONCLUSION: Overall, while lay counsellors feel that the training they received on the tool and the tool itself is useful for effectively implementing the AUDIT-C in low-resource communities, the availability and efficiency of alcohol treatment services in Alexandra Township need to be improved.

AUDIT-C as a possible source of referral during the COVID-19 pandemic for participants presenting patterns of high-risk alcohol consumption in a South African township.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy alcohol use is a leading contributor to premature death and disability worldwide. The World Health Organization's Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health ranked South Africa as having one of the riskiest patterns of alcohol consumption, which calls for intervention. Recognising the need for effective primary care interventions, particularly in the absence of appropriate alcohol-related harm reduction policies at national and local levels, this paper highlights the opportunities and challenges associated with a two-pronged, community-centred approach to the identification of unhealthy alcohol use and interventions. METHODS: This approach included the use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) as a means of screening to identify individuals at moderate (score of 5-7) to high risk (score of 8 +) alcohol use, raising awareness, and investigating the potential utility of brief advice and referrals as a means of reducing risk. RESULTS: Of the 54,187 participants, 43.0% reported engaging in moderate-risk alcohol consumption, with 22.1% reporting high-risk alcohol consumption. Resistance to brief advice was observed to increase with higher AUDIT-C scores. Similarly, participants engaging in high-risk alcohol consumption were resistant to accepting treatment referrals, with fewer than 10% open to receiving a referral. CONCLUSIONS: While men were most likely to report patterns of high-risk alcohol consumption, they were more resistant to accepting referrals. Additionally, participants who were willing to receive brief advice were often resistant to taking active steps to alter their alcohol use. This study highlights the need to consider how to prevent harmful patterns of alcohol use effectively and holistically, especially in low socioeconomic settings through primary health care and community services.

Screening and brief intervention for alcohol use disorder risk in three middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the prevalence of screening and brief intervention (SBI) for alcohol use disorder (AUD) risk in samples of adult drinkers in three middle-income countries (Brazil, China, South Africa), and the extent to which meeting criteria for AUD risk was associated with SBI. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey data were collected from adult samples in two cities in each country in 2018. Survey measures included past-year alcohol use, the CAGE assessment for AUD risk, talking to a health care professional in the past year, alcohol use screening by a health care professional, receiving advice about drinking from a health care professional, and sociodemographic characteristics. The prevalence of SBI was determined for past-year drinkers in each country and for drinkers who had talked to a health care professional. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine whether meeting criteria for AUD risk was associated with SBI when adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among drinkers at risk for AUD, alcohol use screening rates ranged from 6.7% in South Africa to 14.3% in Brazil, and brief intervention rates ranged from 4.6% in South Africa to 8.2% in China. SBI rates were higher among drinkers who talked to a health care professional in the past year. In regression analyses, AUD risk was positively associated with SBI in China and South Africa, and with brief intervention in Brazil. CONCLUSION: Although the prevalence of SBI among drinkers at risk for AUD in Brazil, China, and South Africa appears to be low, it is encouraging that these drinkers were more likely to receive SBI.

Population health trends analysis and burden of disease profile observed in Sierra Leone from 1990 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Sierra Leone, in West Africa, is one of the poorest developing countries in the world. Sierra Leone has experienced several recent challenges namely, a civil war from 1991 to 2002, a massive Ebola outbreak from 2014 to 2016, followed by floods and landslides in 2017.In this study, we quantified the burden of disease in Sierra Leone over a 27-year period, from 1990 to 2017. METHODOLOGY: In this descriptive study, we analysed secondary data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We quantified patterns of burden of disease, injuries, and risk factors in Sierra Leone. We report GBD data and metrics including mortality rates, years of life lost and risk factors for all ages and both sexes from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2017, trends of mortality rates for all ages and sexes have declined in Sierra Leone although mortality rates remain some of the highest when compared to other developing countries. The burden of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases are greater than the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) due to the prevalence of endemic diseases in Sierra Leone. The most important CMNNs associated with premature mortality included respiratory infections, neglected tropical diseases, malaria, and HIV-Aids. Life expectancy has increased from 37 to 52 years. CONCLUSION: Sierra Leone's health status is gradually improving following the civil war and Ebola outbreak. Sierra Leone has a double burden of disease with CMNNs leading and NCDs progressively increasing. Despite these challenges, Sierra Leone has promising initiatives and programs pursuing the Universal Health Coverage 2030 Sustainable Developmental Goals Agenda. There is need for accountability of available resources, clear rules and expected roles for non-governmental organisations to ensure a level playing field for all actors to rebuild the health system.

Locked Down: Economic and Health Effects of COVID-19 Response on Residents of a South African Township.

Background: Little research has examined how pandemics affect residents in under-resourced communities. This study investigated how COVID-19 and lockdown policies affected residents of Alexandra, one of Johannesburg, South Africa's lowest-income townships. Methods: We conducted a telephone survey May 11-22, 2020, while the lockdown and alcohol ban were in effect, of a spatially stratified sample of 353 adult Alexandra residents drawn randomly from voter registration, credit card application, and prior studies' sampling frames. We examined economic consequences; health experiences, including COVID-19 exposure and mental health symptoms; alcohol use; and personal experiences with violence. Results: Respondents were aged 18 to 89 and 47% female. About 70% of those employed before the lockdown were no longer working. Over half of households lost at least one source of income. About 50% of respondents reported stockpiling food. A majority reported price rises and declines in availability of food. Smaller percentages reported such changes for other items. Over 80% reported stress or anxiety, or depression due to the pandemic. The prevalence of past-week alcohol use fell from over 50% before the lockdown to less than 10% during the lockdown. Self-reported physical violence victimization increased. Discussion: COVID-19 and the lockdown disrupted Alexandra residents' lives through unemployment, lost income, mental health problems, and increased violence. The differences between these outcomes and those in more advantaged communities deserve investigation. Research should also seek to identify tailored responses to effectively address the challenges of marginalized communities that often have limited resources to deal with pandemics and policies to contain them.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

The effectiveness of alternative transportation programs in reducing impaired driving: A literature review and synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: Studies have shown that approximately half of arrested intoxicated drivers had their last alcoholic drink at a licensed bar or restaurant. Current efforts to prevent intoxicated patrons from leaving licensed establishments and driving home have been only partially successful. Since a high proportion of drinkers drive to their drinking destination, promoting the use of alternative transportation (AT) - including safe ride shuttles, free or subsidized taxi and ridesharing services, voluntary or paid designated driver programs, and more accessible public transportation - is an important strategy for preventing impaired driving. The primary goal of this study was to review and synthesize the findings of research studies designed to test the effectiveness of AT programs in reducing alcohol-impaired driving. A secondary goal was to report if using AT has led to any unintended consequences, in particular greater alcohol consumption. METHOD: We identified relevant academic articles, new articles, government reports, and other documents (English only) through the University of Chicago library, Google Scholar, and Google Search. We also included published articles recommended by peers. Key search terms included: alternative transportation; safe rides; designated driver; alcohol-impaired driving; alcohol consumption, cost effectiveness; and reduce drunk driving. Initially, we identified 168 potentially relevant sources, of which only 57 were academic articles. After a thorough review, we narrowed down the number of relevant articles to 125 including some background articles and government reports. RESULTS: Some AT programs produced reductions in one or more of the following outcomes: (1) impaired driving; (2) impaired driving crashes; (3) driving under the influence (DUI) arrests; and (4) traffic crashes in general, but others were not shown to be effective. A few programs resulted in greater self-reported alcohol use, but there were no significant findings indicating that drinking when using AT led to an increase in alcohol-related harms such as public intoxication, assaults, or other alcohol-related crime. Of the studies that conducted a cost-benefit analysis, most showed that AT programs yielded a positive benefit, but these studies did not include a sufficient number of variables to be considered true cost-benefit analyses. CONCLUSIONS: There is mixed evidence regarding the effectiveness of AT programs. Evaluations with more rigorous quasi-experimental and experimental designs are needed to identify which types of AT programs work best for different types of communities and target groups. Practical Applications: The literature review and synthesis revealed that the most successful AT programs typically have some of these attributes: (1) social acceptance; (2) high level of public awareness; (3) low cost; (4) year-round availability; (5) provide rides to and from drinking venues; (6) several sponsors that provide funding); (7) user convenience; and (8) perceived safety.

Transformation of the Tanzania medical store department through global fund support: an impact assessment study.

BACKGROUND: The Tanzania government sought support from The Global Fund to Fight AIDs, Tuberculosis and Malaria to reform its Medical Stores Department, with the aim of improving performance. The study sought to assess the impact of the reforms and document the lessons learnt. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative research methods were applied to assess the impact of the reforms. The quantitative part entailed a review of operational and financial data covering the period before and after the implementation of the reforms. Interrupted time series analysis was used to determine the change in average availability of essential health commodities at health zones. Qualitative data were collected through 41 key informant interviews. Participants were identified through stakeholder mapping, purposive and snowballing sampling techniques and responses were analysed through thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Availability of essential health commodities increased significantly by 12.6% (95% CI 9.6% to 15.6%) after the reforms and continued to increase on a monthly basis by 0.2% (95%CI 0.0% to 0.3%) relative to the preintervention trend. Sales increased by 56.6% while the cost of goods sold increased by 88.6% between 2014/2015 and 2017/2018. Surplus income increased by 56.4% between 2014/2015 and 2017/2018 with reductions in rent and fuel expenditure. There was consensus among study participants that the reforms were instrumental in improving performance of the Medical Stores Department. CONCLUSION: Positive results were realised through the reforms. However, despite the progress, there were risks such as the increasing government receivable that could jeopardise the sustainability of the gains. Therefore, multistakeholder efforts are necessary to make progress and expand public health.

Burden of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Although the burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by infectious diseases, countries in this region are undergoing a demographic transition leading to increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To inform health system responses to these changing patterns of disease, we aimed to assess changes in the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)-with crude counts as well as all-age and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population-with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined changes in burden between 1990 and 2017, and differences across age, sex, and regions. We also compared the observed NCD burden across countries with the expected values based on a country's Socio-demographic Index. FINDINGS: All-age total DALYs due to NCDs increased by 67·0% between 1990 (90·6 million [95% UI 81·0-101·9]) and 2017 (151·3 million [133·4-171·8]), reflecting an increase in the proportion of total DALYs attributable to NCDs (from 18·6% [95% UI 17·1-20·4] to 29·8% [27·6-32·0] of the total burden). Although most of this increase can be explained by population growth and ageing, the age-standardised DALY rate (per 100 000 population) due to NCDs in 2017 (21 757·7 DALYs [95% UI 19 377·1-24 380·7]) was almost equivalent to that of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (26 491·6 DALYs [25 165·2-28 129·8]). Cardiovascular diseases were the second leading cause of NCD burden in 2017, resulting in 22·9 million (21·5-24·3) DALYs (15·1% of the total NCD burden), after the group of disorders categorised as other NCDs (28·8 million [25·1-33·0] DALYs, 19·1%). These categories were followed by neoplasms, mental disorders, and digestive diseases. Although crude DALY rates for all NCDs have decreased slightly across sub-Saharan Africa, age-standardised rates are on the rise in some countries (particularly those in southern sub-Saharan Africa) and for some NCDs (such as diabetes and some cancers, including breast and prostate cancer). INTERPRETATION: NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa are posing an increasing challenge for health systems, which have to date largely focused on tackling infectious diseases and maternal, neonatal, and child deaths. To effectively address these changing needs, countries in sub-Saharan Africa require detailed epidemiological data on NCDs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Centre (Australia).

Trends of mortality attributable to child and maternal undernutrition, overweight/obesity and dietary risk factors of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

OBJECTIVE: To assess trends of mortality attributable to child and maternal undernutrition (CMU), overweight/obesity and dietary risks of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015. DESIGN: For each risk factor, a systematic review of data was used to compute the exposure level and the effect size. A Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression analysis was used to estimate the exposure level of the risk factors by age, sex, geography and year. The burden of all-cause mortality attributable to CMU, fourteen dietary risk factors (eight diets, five nutrients and fibre intake) and overweight/obesity was estimated. SETTING: Sub-Saharan Africa.ParticipantsAll age groups and both sexes. RESULTS: In 2015, CMU, overweight/obesity and dietary risks of NCD accounted for 826204 (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 737346, 923789), 266768 (95 % UI 189051, 353096) and 558578 (95 % UI 453433, 680197) deaths, respectively, representing 10·3 % (95 % UI 9·1, 11·6 %), 3·3 % (95 % UI 2·4, 4·4 %) and 7·0 % (95 % UI 5·8, 8·3 %) of all-cause mortality. While the age-standardized proportion of all-cause mortality accounted for by CMU decreased by 55·2 % between 1990 and 2015 in SSA, it increased by 63·3 and 17·2 % for overweight/obesity and dietary risks of NCD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing burden of diet- and obesity-related diseases and the reduction of mortality attributable to CMU indicate that SSA is undergoing a rapid nutritional transition. To tackle the impact in SSA, interventions and international development agendas should also target dietary risks associated with NCD and overweight/obesity.

Health disparities across the counties of Kenya and implications for policy makers, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease. METHODS: We used GBD 2016 estimates of life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk factors to analyse health by age and sex at the national and county levels in Kenya from 1990 to 2016. FINDINGS: The national all-cause mortality rate decreased from 850·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 829·8-871·1) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 579·0 (562·1-596·0) deaths per 100 000 in 2016. Under-5 mortality declined from 95·4 (95% UI 90·1-101·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 43·4 (36·9-51·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2016, and maternal mortality fell from 315·7 (242·9-399·4) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 257·6 (195·1-335·3) deaths per 100 000 in 2016, with steeper declines after 2006 and heterogeneously across counties. Life expectancy at birth increased by 5·4 (95% UI 3·7-7·2) years, with higher gains in females than males in all but ten counties. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, unsafe sex, and malnutrition were the leading national risk factors in 2016. INTERPRETATION: Health outcomes have improved in Kenya since 2006. The burden of communicable diseases decreased but continues to predominate the total disease burden in 2016, whereas the non-communicable disease burden increased. Health gains varied strikingly across counties, indicating targeted approaches for health policy are necessary. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. METHODS: GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. RESULTS: CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country's performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country.

National disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 257 diseases and injuries in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) provide a summary measure of health and can be a critical input to guide health systems, investments, and priority-setting in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using DALYs and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for non-fatal disease burden, cause-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality to derive age-standardized DALYs by sex for Ethiopia for each year. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each age group and sex. Causes of death by age, sex, and year were measured mainly using Causes of Death Ensemble modeling. To estimate YLDs, a Bayesian meta-regression method was used. We reported DALY rates per 100,000 for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases, and injuries, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia. RESULTS: Non-communicable diseases caused 23,118.1 (95% UI, 17,124.4-30,579.6), CMNN disorders resulted in 20,200.7 (95% UI, 16,532.2-24,917.9), and injuries caused 3781 (95% UI, 2642.9-5500.6) age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 in Ethiopia in 2015. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top three leading causes of DALYs in 2015, accounting for 2998 (95% UI, 2173.7-4029), 2592.5 (95% UI, 1850.7-3495.1), and 2562.9 (95% UI, 1466.1-4220.7) DALYs per 100,000, respectively. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the fourth and fifth leading causes of age-standardized DALYs, with rates of 2535.7 (95% UI, 1603.7-3843.2) and 2159.9 (95% UI, 1369.7-3216.3) per 100,000, respectively. The following causes showed a reduction of 60% or more over the last 25 years: lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, meningitis, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, measles, war and legal intervention, and maternal hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing age-standardized DALYs related to most communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases in the last 25 years, causing a major ranking shift to types of non-communicable disease. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal disease, and tuberculosis continue to be leading causes of premature death, despite major declines in burden. Non-communicable diseases also showed reductions as premature mortality declined; however, disability outcomes for these causes did not show declines. Recently developed non-communicable disease strategies may need to be amended to focus on cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and major depressive disorders. Increasing trends of disabilities due to neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, and neonatal disorders should be emphasized in the national newborn survival strategy. Generating quality data should be a priority through the development of new initiatives such as vital events registration, surveillance programs, and surveys to address gaps in data. Measuring disease burden at subnational regional state levels and identifying variations with urban and rural population health should be conducted to support health policy in Ethiopia.

Health system productivity change in Zambia: A focus on the child health services.

Efficiency and productivity improvement have become central in global health debates. In this study, we explored productivity change, particularly the contribution of technological progress and efficiency gains associated with improvements in child survival in Zambia (population 15 million). Productivity was measured by applying the Malmquist productivity index on district-level panel data. The effect of socioeconomic factors was further analyzed by applying an ordinary least squares regression technique. During 2004-2009, overall productivity in Zambia increased by 5.0 per cent, a change largely attributed to technological progress rather than efficiency gains. Within-country productivity comparisons revealed wide heterogeneity in favor of more urbanized and densely populated districts. Improved cooking methods, improved sanitation, and better educated populations tended to improve productive gains, whereas larger household size had an adverse effect. Addressing such district-level factors and ensuring efficient delivery and optimal application of existing health technologies offer a practical pathway for further improving population health.

The imperative for systems thinking to promote access to medicines, efficient delivery, and cost-effectiveness when implementing health financing reforms: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Health systems across Africa are faced with a multitude of competing priorities amidst pressing resource constraints. Expansion of health insurance coverage offers promise in the quest for sustainable healthcare financing for many of the health systems in the region. However, the broader policy implications of expanding health insurance coverage have not been fully investigated and contextualized to many African health systems. METHODS: We interviewed 37 key informants drawn from public, private and civil society organizations involved in health service delivery in Botswana. The objective was to determine the potential health system impacts that would result from expanding the health insurance scheme covering public sector employees. Study participants were selected through purposeful sampling, stakeholder mapping, and snowballing. We thematically synthesized their views, focusing on the key health system areas of access to medicines, efficiency and cost-effectiveness, as intermediate milestones towards universal health coverage. RESULTS: Participants suggested that expansion of health insurance would be characterized by increased financial resources for health and catalyze an upsurge in utilization of health services particularly among those with health insurance cover. As a result, the health system, particularly within the private sector, would be expected to see higher demand for medicines and other health technologies. However, majority of the respondents cautioned that, realizing the full benefits of improved population health, equitable distribution and financial risk protection, would be wholly dependent on having sound policies, regulations and functional accountability systems in place. It was recommended that, health system stewards should embrace efficient and cost-effective delivery, in order to make progress towards universal health coverage. CONCLUSION: Despite the prospects of increasing financial resources available for health service delivery, expansion of health insurance also comes with many challenges. Decision-makers keen to achieve universal health coverage, must view health financing reform through the holistic lens of the health system and its interactions with the population, in order to anticipate its potential benefits and risks. Failure to embrace this comprehensive approach, would potentially lead to counterproductive results.

Technical and scale efficiency in the delivery of child health services in Zambia: results from data envelopment analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Despite tremendous efforts to scale up key maternal and child health interventions in Zambia, progress has not been uniform across the country. This raises fundamental health system performance questions that require further investigation. Our study investigates technical and scale efficiency (SE) in the delivery of maternal and child health services in the country. SETTING: The study focused on all 72 health districts of Zambia. METHODS: We compiled a district-level database comprising health outcomes (measured by the probability of survival to 5 years of age), health outputs (measured by coverage of key health interventions) and a set of health system inputs, namely, financial resources and human resources for health, for the year 2010. We used data envelopment analysis to assess the performance of subnational units across Zambia with respect to technical and SE, controlling for environmental factors that are beyond the control of health system decision makers. RESULTS: Nationally, average technical efficiency with respect to improving child survival was 61.5% (95% CI 58.2% to 64.8%), which suggests that there is a huge inefficiency in resource use in the country and the potential to expand services without injecting additional resources into the system. Districts that were more urbanised and had a higher proportion of educated women were more technically efficient. Improved cooking methods and donor funding had no significant effect on efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: With the pressing need to accelerate progress in population health, decision makers must seek efficient ways to deliver services to achieve universal health coverage. Understanding the factors that drive performance and seeking ways to enhance efficiency offer a practical pathway through which low-income countries could improve population health without necessarily seeking additional resources.

Assessing the Contribution of Malaria Vector Control and Other Maternal and Child Health Interventions in Reducing All-Cause Under-Five Mortality in Zambia, 1990-2010.

Under-five mortality in Zambia has declined since 1990, with reductions accelerating after 2000. Zambia's scale-up of malaria control is viewed as the driver of these gains, but past studies have not fully accounted for other potential factors. This study sought to systematically evaluate the impact of malaria vector control on under-five mortality. Using a mixed-effects regression model, we quantified the relationship between malaria vector control, other priority health interventions, and socioeconomic indicators and district-level under-five mortality trends from 1990 to 2010. We then conducted counterfactual analyses to estimate under-five mortality in the absence of scaling up malaria vector control. Throughout Zambia, increased malaria vector control coverage coincided with scaling up three other interventions: the pentavalent vaccine, exclusive breast-feeding, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV services. This simultaneous scale-up made statistically isolating intervention-specific impact infeasible. Instead, in combination, these interventions jointly accelerated declines in under-five mortality by 11% between 2000 and 2010. Zambia's scale-up of multiple interventions is notable, yet our findings highlight challenges in quantifying program-specific impact without better health data and information systems. As countries aim to further improve health outcomes, there is even greater need-and opportunity-to strengthen routine data systems and to develop more rigorous evaluation strategies.