Estimation of HIV prevalence and burden in Nigeria: a Bayesian predictive modelling study.

Background: The cost of population-based surveys is high and obtaining funding for a national population-based survey may take several years, with follow-up surveys taking up to five years. Survey-based prevalence estimates are prone to bias owing to survey non-participation, as not all individuals eligible to participate in a survey may be reached, and some of those who are contacted do not consent to HIV testing. This study describes how Bayesian statistical modeling may be used to estimate HIV prevalence at the state level in a reliable and timely manner. Methods: We analysed national HIV testing services (HTS) data for Nigeria from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, to derive state-level HIV seropositivity rates. We used a Bayesian linear model with normal prior distribution and Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate HIV state-level prevalence for the 36 states +1 FCT in Nigeria. Our outcome variable was the HIV seropositivity rates and we adjusted for demographic, economic, biological, and societal covariates collected from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and 2016-17 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The estimated population of 15-49 years olds in each state was multiplied by estimates from the estimated prevalence to generate state-level HIV burden. Findings: Our estimated national HIV prevalence was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-2.7%) among adults aged 15-49 years in Nigeria, which corresponds to approximately 2 million people living with HIV, compared to previous national HIV prevalence estimates of 1.4% from the 2018 NAIIS and UNAIDS estimation and projection package PLHIV estimation of 1.8 million in 2022. Our modelled HIV prevalence in Nigeria varies by state, with Benue (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.0-6.3) having the highest prevalence, followed by Rivers (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.6-5.8%), Akwa Ibom (3.5%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.1%), Edo (3.4%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.0%) and Taraba (3.0%, 95% CI: 2.6-3.7%) placing fourth and fifth, respectively. Jigawa had the lowest HIV prevalence (0.3%), which was consistent with prior estimates. Interpretation: This model provides a comprehensive and flexible use of evidence to estimate state-level HIV seroprevalence for Nigeria using program data and adjusting for explanatory variables. Thus, investment in program data for HIV surveillance will provide reliable estimates for HIV sub-national monitoring and improve planning and interventions for epidemiologic control. Funding: This article was made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

The potential role of patent and proprietary medicine vendors' associations in improving the quality of services in Nigeria's drug shops.

BACKGROUND: Patent and Proprietary Medicine Vendors (PPMVs) play a major role in Nigeria's health care delivery but regulation and monitoring of their practice needs appreciable improvement to ensure they deliver quality services. Most PPMVs belong to associations which may be useful in improving their regulation. However, little is known about how the PPMV associations function and how they can partner with relevant regulatory agencies to ensure members' compliance and observance of good practice. This study sought to describe the PPMV associations' structure and operations and the regulatory environment in which PPMVs function. With this information we explore ways in which the associations could help improve the coverage of Nigeria's population with basic quality health care services. METHODS: A mixed methods study was conducted across four rural local government areas (LGAs) (districts) in two Nigerian states of Bayelsa and Oyo. The study comprises a quantitative data collection of 160 randomly selected PPMVs and their shops, eight PPMV focus group discussions, in-depth interviews with 26 PPMV association executives and eight regulatory agency representatives overseeing PPMVs' practice. RESULTS: The majority of the PPMVs in the four LGAs belonged to the local chapters of National Association of Patent and Proprietary Medicine Dealers (NAPPMED). The associations were led by executive members and had regular monthly meetings. NAPPMED monitored members' activities, provided professional and social support, and offered protection from regulatory agencies. More than 80% of PPMVs received at least one monitoring visit in the previous 6 months and local NAPPMED was the organization that monitored PPMVs the most, having visited 68.8% of respondents. The three major regulators, who reached 30.0-36.3% of PPMVs reported lack of human and financial resources as the main challenge they faced in regulation. CONCLUSIONS: Quality services at drug shops would benefit from stronger monitoring and regulation. The PPMV associations already play a role in monitoring their members. Regulatory agencies and other organizations could partner with the PPMV associations to strengthen the regulatory environment and expand access to basic quality health services at PPMV shops in Nigeria.

Malaria testing and treatment knowledge among selected rural patent and proprietary medicine vendors (PPMV) in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of illness and death in Nigeria, but access of poor people to quality anti-malarial services remains low especially in the rural areas. Patent and proprietary medicine vendors (PPMVs) provide the majority of malaria treatment in rural areas, but little is known about their knowledge of malaria testing and treatment of uncomplicated malaria as recommended in the 2011 National Malaria Control Programme policy. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in two purposively selected states (Oyo and Bayelsa) in Nigeria with each state representing a different geographic and linguistic-ethnic region in the southern part of the country. Two rural LGAs were randomly selected from each state and data were collected from 160 randomly selected PPMVS (40 per LGA) using a structured questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The 2011 National Policy on Malaria Diagnosis and Treatment is mostly unknown to PPMVs. Although most PPMVs (89%) knew that artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended in the national policy, 91% also thought non-ACT were endorsed. The proportion of PPMVs who stated they would treat a malaria case with an artemisinin-based combination at the correct dose was 33% for a child under five, 47% for an adult male and 14% for a pregnant woman in her second trimester. The proportion of PPMVs who reported they would diagnose a case of malaria prior to treatment using a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kit was 1.9% for children under five, 7.5% for adult males and 3.1% for pregnant women in their first trimester due to lack of knowledge. Almost two-thirds (65.6%) would correctly refer children with severe malaria to health facility. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial knowledge gaps on the use of RDTs and treatment with artemisinin-based combinations exist among rural PPMVs. Given existing evidence regarding the effectiveness of private retail outlets in malaria case management, PPMVs should be provided with competency-based training and supervision to improve the quality of care they provide.

Efficiency of HIV services in Nigeria: Determinants of unit cost variation of HIV counseling and testing and prevention of mother-to-child transmission interventions.

BACKGROUND: Like most countries with a substantial HIV burden, Nigeria continues to face challenges in reaching coverage targets of HIV services. A fundamental problem is stagnated funding in recent years. Improving efficiency is therefore paramount to effectively scale-up HIV services. In this study, we estimated the facility-level average costs (or unit costs) of HIV Counseling and Testing (HCT) and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) services and characterized determinants of unit cost variation. We investigated the role of service delivery modalities and the link between facility-level management practices and unit cost variability along both services' cascades. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, observational, micro-costing study in Nigeria between December 2014 and May 2015 in 141 HCT, and 137 PMTCT facilities, respectively. We retrospectively collected relevant input quantities (personnel, supplies, utilities, capital, and training), input prices, and output data for the year 2013. Staff costs were adjusted using time-motion methods. We estimated the facility-level average cost per service along the HCT and PMTCT service cascades and analyzed their composition and variability. Through linear regressions analysis, we identified aspects of service delivery and management practices associated with unit costs variations. RESULTS: The weighted average cost per HIV-positive client diagnosed through HCT services was US$130. The weighted average cost per HIV-positive woman on prophylaxis in PMTCT services was US$858. These weighted values are estimates of nationally representative unit costs in Nigeria. For HCT, the facility-level unit costs per client tested and per HIV-positive client diagnosed were US$30 and US$1,364, respectively; and the median unit costs were US$17 and US$245 respectively. For PMTCT, the facility-level unit costs per woman tested, per HIV-positive woman diagnosed, and per HIV-positive woman on prophylaxis were US$46, US$2,932, and US$3,647, respectively, and the median unit costs were US$24, US$1,013 and US$1,448, respectively. Variability in costs across facilities was principally explained by the number of patients, integration of HIV services, task shifting, and the level of care. DISCUSSION: Our findings demonstrate variability in unit costs across facilities. We found evidence consistent with economies of scale and scope, and efficiency gains in facilities implementing task-shifting. Our results could inform program design by suggesting ways to improve resource allocation and efficiently scale-up the HIV response in Nigeria. Some of our findings might also be relevant for other settings.

Differences in Sexual Practices, Sexual Behavior and HIV Risk Profile between Adolescents and Young Persons in Rural and Urban Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to determine differences in sexual practices, HIV sexual risk behaviors, and HIV risk profile of adolescents and young persons' in rural and urban Nigeria. METHODOLOGY: We recruited 772 participants 15 to 24 years old from urban and rural townships in Nigeria through a household survey. Information on participants' socio-demographic profile (age sex, residential area, number of meals taken per day), sexual practices (vagina, oral and anal sex; heterosexual and homosexual sex; sex with spouse, casual acquaintances, boy/girlfriend and commercial sex workers), sexual behavior (age of sexual debut, use of condom, multiple sex partners, transactional sex and age of sexual partner), and other HIV risk factors (use of alcohol and psychoactive substances, reason for sexual debut, knowledge of HIV prevention and HIV transmission, report of STI symptoms) were collected through an interviewer administered questionnaire. Differences in sexual behavior and sexual practices of adolescents and HIV risk profile of adolescents and young persons resident in urban and rural areas were determined. RESULTS: More than half (53.5%) of the respondents were sexually active, with more residing in the rural than urban areas (64.9% vs 44.1%; p<0.001) and more resident in the rural area reporting having more than one sexual partner (29.5% vs 20.4%; p = 0.04). Also, 97.3% of sexually active respondents reported having vaginal sex, 8.7% reported oral sex and 1.9% reported anal sex. More male than female respondents in the urban area used condoms during the last vaginal sexual intercourse (69.1% vs 51.9%; p = 0.02), and reported sex with casual partners (7.0% vs 15.3%; p = 0.007). More female than male respondents residing in the rural area engaged in transactional sex (1.0% vs 6.7%; p = 0.005). More females than males in both rural (3.6% vs 10.2%; p = 0.04) and urban (4.7% vs 26.6%; p<0.001) areas self-reported a history of discharge. More females than males in both rural (1.4% vs 17.0%; p = 0.04) and urban (15.0% vs 29.1%; p<0.001) areas self-reported a history of itching. CONCLUSION: There are differences in the sexual behavior and practices of adolescents and young persons' residing in the urban and rural area with implication for HIV prevention programming.