Excess mortality for men and women above age 70 according to level of care during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Both age and comorbidity are established risk factors for death among those infected with COVID-19. Because they often co-exist, it is difficult to assess if age is a risk factor on its own. METHODS: We used administrative register data of the total Swedish population from 01/2015 until 07/2020. We stratified the population aged 70+ into three groups according to level of care (in care homes, with home care, and in independent living). Within these groups, we explored the level of excess mortality in 2020 by estimating expected mortality with Poisson regression and compared it to observed levels. We investigated if excess mortality has been of the same magnitude in the three groups, and if age constitutes a risk factor for death during the pandemic regardless of level of care. FINDINGS: Individuals living in care homes experienced the highest excess mortality (75- >100% in April, 25-50% in May, 0-25% in June, depending on age). Individuals with home care showed the second highest magnitude (30-60% in April, 15-40% in May, 0-25% in June), while individuals in independent living experienced excess primarily at the highest ages (5-50% in April, 5-50% in May, 0-25% in June). Although mortality rates increased, the age-pattern of mortality during the pandemic resembled the age-pattern observed in previous years. INTERPRETATION: We found stepwise elevated excess mortality by level of care during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden, suggesting that level of frailty or comorbidities plays a more important role than age for COVID-19 associated deaths. Part of our findings are likely attributable to differences in exposure to the virus between individuals receiving formal care and those living independently, and not only different case fatality between the groups. Although age is a strong predictor for mortality, the relative effect of age on mortality was no different during the pandemic than before. We believe this is an important contribution to the discussion of the pandemic, its consequences, and which groups need the most protection. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare (FORTE: grant 2016-07115).

Life expectancy after the first suicide attempt.

OBJECTIVE: To assess excess mortality among suicide attempters compared to the general population. METHOD: Remaining life expectancy was calculated for a nationwide cohort of all 187 894 persons 18 years or older hospitalised for the first time attempted suicide in Sweden in 1971-2010. RESULTS: Life expectancy was shortened throughout the lifespan for both men and women debuting with suicide attempt. The reduction in life expectancy for men debuting with a suicide attempt at 20 years of age was 18 years while the reduction for men debuting at 50 years of age was 10 years. For women attempting suicide, the life expectancy was shortened by 11 and 8 years respectively. The gender difference in life expectancy attenuated in patients making their first suicide attempt at age 70 years or older. Suicide deaths explained about 20% of the total mortality within 10 years of the suicide attempt and 5% in those with duration of four decades since the first suicide attempt. CONCLUSION: The life expectancy is dramatically reduced in patients attempting suicide. With most excess deaths being due to physical health conditions, public efforts should be directed both towards improving physical health and to prevent suicide.

How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated. METHODS: The analyses were based on individual level data on all Swedish and Danish centenarians born from 1870 to 1901; in total 3006 men and 10 963 women were included. Birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying were calculated. Exact ages were used for calculations of maximum length of life. Whether maximum age changed over time was analysed taking into account increases in cohort size. RESULTS: The results confirm that there has not been any improvement in mortality amongst centenarians in the past 30 years and that the current rise in life expectancy is driven by reductions in mortality below the age of 100 years. The death risks seem to reach a plateau of around 50% at the age 103 years for men and 107 years for women. Despite the rising life expectancy, the maximum age does not appear to increase, in particular after accounting for the increasing number of individuals of advanced age. CONCLUSION: Mortality amongst centenarians is not changing despite improvements at younger ages. An extension of the maximum lifespan and a sizeable extension of life expectancy both require reductions in mortality above the age of 100 years.

Payback time? Influence of having children on mortality in old age.

BACKGROUND: It is known that parents have lower mortality than childless individuals. Support from adult children to ageing parents may be of importance for parental health and longevity. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between having a child and the risk of death, and to examine whether the association increased at older ages when health starts to deteriorate and the need of support from a family member increases. METHODS: In this nationwide study, all men and women (born between 1911 and 1925 and residing in Sweden), as well as their children, were identified in population registers and followed over time. Age-specific death risks were calculated for each calendar year for individuals having at least one child and for individuals without children. Adjusted risk differences and risk ratios were estimated. RESULTS: Men and women having at least one child experienced lower death risks than childless men and women. At 60 years of age, the difference in life expectancy was 2 years for men and 1.5 years for women. The absolute differences in death risks increased with parents' age and were somewhat larger for men than for women. The association persisted when the potential confounding effect of having a partner was taken into account. The gender of the child did not matter for the association between parenthood and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Having children is associated with increased longevity, particularly in an absolute sense in old age. That the association increased with parents' age and was somewhat stronger for the non-married may suggest that social support is a possible explanation.

Snus (Swedish smokeless tobacco) use and risk of stroke: pooled analyses of incidence and survival.

BACKGROUND: Snus is a moist smokeless tobacco product with high nicotine content. Its use has a short-term effect on the cardiovascular system, but the relationship between snus use and stroke is unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the associations between use of snus and incidence of and survival after stroke, both overall and according to subtypes. METHODS: Pooled analyses of eight Swedish prospective cohort studies were conducted, including 130 485 men who never smoked. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incidence and death after diagnosis using Cox proportional hazard regression models and case fatality and survival using logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methods, respectively. RESULTS: No associations were observed between the use of snus and the risk of overall stroke (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.92-1.17) or of any of the stroke subtypes. The odds ratio (OR) of 28-day case fatality was 1.42 (95% CI 0.99-2.04) amongst users of snus who had experienced a stroke, and the HR of death during the follow-up period was 1.32 (95% CI 1.08-1.61). CONCLUSION: Use of snus was not associated with the risk of stroke. Hence, nicotine is unlikely to contribute importantly to the pathophysiology of stroke. However, case fatality was increased in snus users, compared with nonusers, but further studies are needed to determine any possible causal mechanisms.

Shared genetic influence of BMI, physical activity and type 2 diabetes: a twin study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to examine the long-term associations of BMI and physical activity with type 2 diabetes, and to estimate shared genetic components of these traits. METHODS: We used data from the Swedish Twin Registry on 23,539 twins born 1886-1958 who answered questionnaires between 1967 and 1972 and were followed up until 1998. The risk of type 2 diabetes in relation to BMI and physical activity was assessed by Cox regression. Structural equation models were used to estimate genetic and environmental variance components and genetic correlations. RESULTS: The risk of type 2 diabetes increased with BMI (HR 1.32 [95% CI 1.29, 1.35] per kg/m²) and decreased with physical activity (HR 0.56 [95% CI 0.39, 0.80] for high vs low). Heritability was estimated to be 77% (95% CI 54%, 83%) for type 2 diabetes, 65% (95% CI 58%, 73%) for BMI, and 57% (95% CI 47%, 67%) for physical activity. The genetic correlation with type 2 diabetes was 0.43 (95% CI 0.31, 0.58) for BMI and -0.23 (95% CI -0.46, 0.02) for physical activity, implying that 18% (95% CI 9%, 34%) of the genetic influence on type 2 diabetes is shared with BMI and 5% (95% CI 0%, 20%) with physical activity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Indications of shared genetic effects are found for BMI and type 2 diabetes, which suggests that these traits are partly influenced by the same genetic factors. In contrast, our findings suggest that the genes related to physical activity are essentially different from those associated with type 2 diabetes.

Alcohol consumption is associated with reduced risk of Type 2 diabetes and autoimmune diabetes in adults: results from the Nord-Trøndelag health study.

AIMS: We investigated the influence of different aspects of alcohol consumption on the risk of Type 2 diabetes and autoimmune diabetes in adults. METHODS: We used data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Survey (HUNT) study, in which all adults aged ≥ 20 years from Nord-Trondelag County were invited to participate in three surveys in 1984-1986, 1995-1997 and 2006-2008. Patients with diabetes were identified using self-reports, and participants with onset age ≥ 35 years were classified as having Type 2 diabetes if they were negative for anti-glutamic acid decarboxylase (n = 1841) and as having autoimmune diabetes if they were positive for anti-glutamic acid decarboxylase (n = 140). Hazard ratios of amount and frequency of alcohol use, alcoholic beverage choice, and binge drinking and alcohol use disorders were estimated. RESULTS: Moderate alcohol consumption (adjusted for confounders) was associated with a reduced risk of Type 2 diabetes in men, but not in women (hazard ratio for men 10-15 g/day 0.48, 95% CI 0.28-0.77; hazard ratio for women ≥ 10 g/day 0.81, 95% CI 0.33-1.96). The reduced risk was primarily linked to consumption of wine [hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.99 (per g/day)]. No increased risk was seen in participants reporting binge drinking or in problem drinkers. The results were also compatible with a reduced risk of autoimmune diabetes associated with alcohol consumption [hazard ratio 0.70, 95% CI 0.45-1.08 (frequent consumption) and hazard ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.13-0.97 (2-7 g/day)]. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate alcohol consumption associates with reduced risk of both Type 2 diabetes and autoimmune diabetes. A protective effect of alcohol intake may be limited to men. High alcohol consumption does not seem to carry an increased risk of diabetes.

No effect by the common gene variant rs10830963 of the melatonin receptor 1B on the association between sleep disturbances and type 2 diabetes: results from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Genetic variation in the melatonin receptor 1B (MTNR1B) is associated with type 2 diabetes. Melatonin contributes to the regulation of sleep, and sleep problems are a documented risk factor for type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the MTNR1B gene variant rs10830963 is associated with sleep problems and whether this variant contributes to the association between sleep disturbances and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This was a case-control study nested within the population-based Nord-Trøndelag Health Study, including 1,322 prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and 1,447 controls. In addition, prospective data were available for 838 incident cases and 1,133 controls. Genotyping was done by TaqMan single-nucleotide polymorphism allelic discrimination analysis. ORs and 95% CIs were calculated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Our findings confirm an association between sleep disturbances and type 2 diabetes (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.33, p = 0.0016) and between the risk allele of rs10830963 and type 2 diabetes (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.27, p = 0.0579). There was a tendency for an association between the risk allele and prevalence of sleep problems (specifically early awakening). However, the risk allele did not influence the association of sleep problems with diabetes, which was unaltered after adjustment for the MTNR1B risk allele (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.23-2.34, p = 0.0014). Results based on prospective data were similar, although non-significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings do not support participation of the MTNR1B gene variant rs10830963 in the well documented association between sleep disturbances and type 2 diabetes.

Pooled analysis of recent studies on magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia.

BACKGROUND: Previous pooled analyses have reported an association between magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia. We present a pooled analysis based on primary data from studies on residential magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia published after 2000. METHODS: Seven studies with a total of 10,865 cases and 12,853 controls were included. The main analysis focused on 24-h magnetic field measurements or calculated fields in residences. RESULTS: In the combined results, risk increased with increase in exposure, but the estimates were imprecise. The odds ratios for exposure categories of 0.1-0.2 µT, 0.2-0.3 µT and ≥0.3 µT, compared with <0.1 µT, were 1.07 (95% CI 0.81-1.41), 1.16 (0.69-1.93) and 1.44 (0.88-2.36), respectively. Without the most influential study from Brazil, the odds ratios increased somewhat. An increasing trend was also suggested by a nonparametric analysis conducted using a generalised additive model. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are in line with previous pooled analyses showing an association between magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia. Overall, the association is weaker in the most recently conducted studies, but these studies are small and lack methodological improvements needed to resolve the apparent association. We conclude that recent studies on magnetic fields and childhood leukaemia do not alter the previous assessment that magnetic fields are possibly carcinogenic.

A pooled analysis of extremely low-frequency magnetic fields and childhood brain tumors.

Pooled analyses may provide etiologic insight about associations between exposure and disease. In contrast to childhood leukemia, no pooled analyses of childhood brain tumors and exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) have been conducted. The authors carried out a pooled analysis based on primary data (1960-2001) from 10 studies of ELF-MF exposure and childhood brain tumors to assess whether the combined results, adjusted for potential confounding, indicated an association. The odds ratios for childhood brain tumors in ELF-MF exposure categories of 0.1-<0.2 µT, 0.2-<0.4 µT, and ≥0.4 µT were 0.95 (95% confidence interval: 0.65, 1.41), 0.70 (95% CI: 0.40, 1.22), and 1.14 (95% CI: 0.61, 2.13), respectively, in comparison with exposure of <0.1 µT. Other analyses employing alternate cutpoints, further adjustment for confounders, exclusion of particular studies, stratification by type of measurement or type of residence, and a nonparametric estimate of the exposure-response relation did not reveal consistent evidence of increased childhood brain tumor risk associated with ELF-MF exposure. These results provide little evidence for an association between ELF-MF exposure and childhood brain tumors.

Job strain predicts recurrent events after a first acute myocardial infarction: the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program.

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating the prognostic role of job stress in coronary heart disease are sparse and have inconclusive findings. We aimed (i) to investigate whether job strain predicts recurrent events after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and if so (ii) to determine behavioural and biological factors that contribute to the explanation of this association. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: Ten emergency hospitals in the larger Stockholm area, Sweden. SUBJECTS: Non-fatal AMI cases from the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program case-control study who were employed and younger than 65 years at the time of their hospitalization (n = 676). RESULTS: During the 8.5 year follow-up, 155 patients experienced cardiac death or non-fatal AMI; totally 96 patients died, 52 of cardiac causes. After adjustment for potential confounders, patients with high job strain had an increased risk for the combination of cardiac death and non-fatal AMI relative to those with low job strain, the hazard ratio (HR) and the 95% confidence interval (CI) being 1.73 (1.06-2.83). Results were similar for cardiac [HR (95% CI): 2.81 (1.16-6.82)] and total mortality [HR (95% CI): 1.65 (0.91-2.98)]. We found no evidence for mediation from lifestyle, sleep, lipids, glucose, inflammatory and coagulation markers on the association between job strain and the combination of cardiac death and non-fatal AMI. CONCLUSIONS: Job strain was associated with poor long-term prognosis after a first myocardial infarction. Interventions focusing on reducing stressors at the workplace or on improving coping with work stress in cardiac patients might improve their survival post-AMI.

The Stockholm non-affective psychoses study (snaps): the importance of including out-patient data in incidence studies.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of schizophrenia and non-affective psychoses from registers, to highlight the importance of including data from out-patient care, and to assess the proportion of persons treated in out-patient care only. METHOD: Data from out-patient and in-patient psychiatric care in Stockholm and information from several national registers constitute 'The Stockholm Non-Affective Psychoses Study' (SNAPS). Incidence rates based on SNAPS data were calculated and compared to in-patient care incidence rates. RESULTS: The incidence rate was 72/100 000 for non-affective psychoses (age group 18-44) and 28/100 000 for schizophrenia (age group 18-34) in the SNAPS. This was higher compared to in-patient based incidence rates (42 and 13/100 000 respectively). The proportion of individuals with psychosis treated in out-patient care only was 25%. CONCLUSION: There are substantial differences in the incidence rates of non-affective psychoses and schizophrenia depending on the availability of data. Not including out-patient care will underestimate the incidence rates.

Chocolate consumption and mortality following a first acute myocardial infarction: the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the long-term effects of chocolate consumption amongst patients with established coronary heart disease. DESIGN: In a population-based inception cohort study, we followed 1169 non-diabetic patients hospitalized with a confirmed first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between 1992 and 1994 in Stockholm County, Sweden, as part of the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program. Participants self-reported usual chocolate consumption over the preceding 12 months with a standardized questionnaire distributed during hospitalization and underwent a health examination 3 months after discharge. Participants were followed for hospitalizations and mortality with national registries for 8 years. RESULTS: Chocolate consumption had a strong inverse association with cardiac mortality. When compared with those never eating chocolate, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-1.31), 0.56 (0.32-0.99) and 0.34 (0.17-0.70) for those consuming chocolate less than once per month, up to once per week and twice or more per week respectively. Chocolate consumption generally had an inverse but weak association with total mortality and nonfatal outcomes. In contrast, intake of other sweets was not associated with cardiac or total mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Chocolate consumption was associated with lower cardiac mortality in a dose dependent manner in patients free of diabetes surviving their first AMI. Although our findings support increasing evidence that chocolate is a rich source of beneficial bioactive compounds, confirmation of this strong inverse relationship from other observational studies or large-scale, long-term, controlled randomized trials is needed.

Use of snus and risk for cardiovascular disease: results from the Swedish Twin Registry.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between snus use and the risk for cardiovascular disease, i.e. ischemic heart disease and stroke. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Sweden. SUBJECTS: Sixteen thousand six hundred and forty-two male Swedish twins participating in the Screening Across the Lifespan Twin Study, conducted in 1998- 2002, were followed for incident cardiovascular disease. Participants were without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline and incident cases were identified via the Swedish Cause of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register. RESULTS: Overall, there was no association between use of snus and risk for cardiovascular disease. Current snus users, without a smoking history, had a relative risk of 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.69-1.46) for cardiovascular disease as compared to non users. Corresponding relative risks for ischemic heart disease and stroke were 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.51-1.41) and 1.18 (95% confidence interval 0.67-2.08), respectively. In smoking adjusted models, risk estimates for ischemic heart disease in relation to snus use were all close to unity regardless of timing or intensity of snus use. However, current heavy snus users (consuming more than four cans week(-1)) had a relative risk for stroke of 1.75 (95% confidence interval 0.95-3.21). CONCLUSION: These data do not support any strong association between snus use and risk for cardiovascular disease.

Prognostic role of the glucometabolic status assessed in a metabolically stable phase after a first acute myocardial infarction: the SHEEP study.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to examine fasting glucose and insulin levels in patients surviving 3 months after a first AMI in relation to long-term prognosis. DESIGN: A total of 1167 consecutive patients between 45 and 70 years with a first nonfatal AMI underwent a standardized clinical examination and were followed for a mean of 8 years for total and cardiac mortality and hospitalization for nonfatal cardiovascular disease. Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) was defined as fasting glucose between 5.6 and 7 mmol L(-1) and a level >or=7 mmol L(-1) as newly detected diabetes. Patients with a fasting glucose level <5.6 mmol L(-1) and without a history of diabetes were classified as normoglycemic (NG). An estimate of insulin resistance was calculated using the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA). RESULTS: We recorded 219 deaths, 121 deaths from cardiac causes, during the follow-up period. After adjustment for several potential confounders, hazard ratios for total mortality were 1.36 (95% confidence interval 0.93-1.99, P=0.11), 2.27 (1.26-4.09, P=0.006) and 2.15 (1.43-3.21, P<0.001) for patients with IFG, newly detected diabetes and history of diabetes when compared to the NG group. Cardiac mortality, risk of hospitalization for recurrent nonfatal AMI, stroke or heart failure generally showed a similar pattern to that of total mortality. Insulin level and HOMA values were also associated with increased risk for recurrent events. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that both known and newly detected diabetes is a strong prognostic factor in AMI. In addition, our findings suggest that glucose levels below the diabetes cut off value might also predict poor long-term prognosis when assessed in a metabolically stable phase.

Golf: a game of life and death--reduced mortality in Swedish golf players.

The specific health benefits achieved from different forms and patterns of leisure-time physical activity are not established. We analyzed the mortality in a cohort of Swedish golf players. We used the Swedish Golf Federation's membership registry and the nationwide Mortality Registry. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) with stratification for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. The cohort included 300 818 golfers, and the total number of deaths was 1053. The overall SMR was 0.60 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.57-0.64]. The mortality reduction was observed in men and women, in all age groups, and in all socioeconomic categories. Golfers with the lowest handicap (the most skilled players) had the lowest mortality; SMR=0.53 (95% CI: 0.41-0.67) compared with 0.68 (95% CI: 0.61-0.75) for those with the highest handicap. While we cannot conclude with certainty that all the 40% decreased mortality rates are explained by the physical activity associated with playing golf, we conclude that most likely this is part of the explanation. To put the observed mortality reduction in context, it may be noted that a 40% reduction of mortality rates corresponds to an increase in life expectancy of about 5 years.