Extreme precipitation promotes invasion in managed grasslands.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events like drought and flooding, which threaten to amplify other global change drivers such as species invasion. We investigate the effect of wet and dry extreme precipitation regimes on invasive species' abundances in northern tallgrass prairies. Because soil moisture is a key determinant of prairie composition, theory and evidence suggest drought conditions will hinder invasion, whereas wetter conditions will enhance invasion. To test this hypothesis, we explored the effect of precipitation on invasive plant species abundance from 2010 to 2019 in 25 managed prairies using observations from 267 transects comprising 6675 plots throughout western Minnesota, USA. We estimated how increases in the number of extremely wet or dry months in a year altered overall invasive species abundance and the abundance of the highly invasive grasses Poa pratensis and Bromus inermis. We found that a greater occurrence of abnormally wet months increased invasive species abundance but found mixed evidence that abnormally dry conditions hindered invasion. Further, more moderately wet and dry months reduced native grass abundance. Together, these results suggest that more frequent extremely wet months may intensify invasive dominance and that dry months may not counterbalance these trends. Given the considerable uncertainty still surrounding the interactive effects of climate change and invasion on native plant communities, this research represents an important step toward quantifying the complex influence of precipitation extremes on invasion dynamics in managed ecosystems of critical conservation concern.

Seed sourcing for climate-resilient grasslands: The role of seed source diversity during early restoration establishment.

Restoration advocates for the use of local seed in restoration, but theory suggests that diverse seed sources may enhance genetic diversity and longer term evolutionary potential within restored communities. However, few empirical studies have evaluated whether species and genetic diversity within species impacts plant community composition following restoration. The goal of this research is to compare the effects of single and multi-sourced seed mix treatments on plant community diversity following restoration. Species establishment, abundance, and diversity were compared following two restoration seed mix treatments created to include 14 species commonly used in grassland restoration. We compared the application of seed mixes designed using a single population per species with those containing five populations per species across sites in Minnesota and South Dakota, United States. Early plant establishment and richness mostly reflected non-seeded species across both sites, although seeded species established at a slightly higher rate in year two following restoration. At the South Dakota site, community composition largely reflected changes associated with establishment across the growing season as opposed to seed mix treatment. This contrasted with the Minnesota site, where community composition appeared to be strongly influenced by seed mix treatment. While there is some evidence seed mix treatment may be influencing the emergent community across sites, spatial heterogeneity across the Minnesota restoration site likely influenced diversity in early emergence over that of seed mix treatment. Indeed, varying land-use history across both sites likely contributed to differences in species composition observed at this early stage of the restoration. This suggests that seed mix treatment may have limited impact on early post-restoration emergence diversity relative to the importance of land-use history. However, future monitoring will be needed to evaluate whether the impact of seed mix treatment on community composition changes over time.

A resilient and connected network of sites to sustain biodiversity under a changing climate.

Motivated by declines in biodiversity exacerbated by climate change, we identified a network of conservation sites designed to provide resilient habitat for species, while supporting dynamic shifts in ranges and changes in ecosystem composition. Our 12-y study involved 289 scientists in 14 study regions across the conterminous United States (CONUS), and our intent was to support local-, regional-, and national-scale conservation decisions. To ensure that the network represented all species and ecosystems, we stratified CONUS into 68 ecoregions, and, within each, we comprehensively mapped the geophysical settings associated with current ecosystem and species distributions. To identify sites most resilient to climate change, we identified the portion of each geophysical setting with the most topoclimate variability (high landscape diversity) likely to be accessible to dispersers (high local connectedness). These "resilient sites" were overlaid with conservation priority maps from 104 independent assessments to indicate current value in supporting recognized biodiversity. To identify key connectivity areas for sustaining species movement in response to climate change, we codeveloped a fine-scale representation of human modification and ran a circuit-theory-based analysis that emphasized movement potential along geographic climate gradients. Integrating areas with high values for two or more factors, we identified a representative, resilient, and connected network of biodiverse lands covering 35% of CONUS. Because the network connects climatic gradients across 250,000 biodiversity elements and multiple resilient examples of all geophysical settings in every ecoregion, it could form the spatial foundation for targeted land protection and other conservation strategies to sustain a diverse, dynamic, and adaptive world.

Environmental contributions to the evolution of trait differences in Geum triflorum: Implications for restoration.

PREMISE: How the environment influences the distribution of trait variation across a species' range has important implications for seed transfer during restoration. Evolution across environments could influence fitness when individuals are transferred into new environments. Here, we evaluate the role the environment has had on the distribution of genetic variance for traits important to adaptation. METHODS: In a common garden experiment, we quantified trait differentiation for populations of Geum triflorum sourced from three distinct ecoregions and evaluated the ability of climate to predict trait variation. Populations were sourced from the Manitoba and Great Lake alvar ecoregions that experience predictable extremes in seasonal water availability and the prairie ecoregion which exhibits unpredictable changes in water availability. RESULTS: Plants sourced from alvar ecoregions exhibited smaller but more stomata and greater intrinsic water-use efficiency relative to prairie plant populations, supporting the evolution of ecotypic differences. Estimates of standing genetic variance and heritable genetic variation for quantitative traits suggest alvar populations have greater adaptive potential. However, low evolvability suggests all populations likely have limited capacity to evolve in response to environmental change. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the importance of the environment in influencing the evolution and distribution of genetic differences across populations used as seed sources for restoration. Additionally, these data may inform recommendations for seed transfer across novel environments and our expectations of populations' adaptive potential.

Invasive species do not exploit early growing seasons in burned tallgrass prairies.

Invasive species management is key to conserving critically threatened native prairie ecosystems. While prescribed burning is widely demonstrated to increase native diversity and suppress invasive species, elucidating the conditions under which burning is most effective remains an ongoing focus of applied prairie ecology research. Understanding how conservation management interacts with climate is increasingly pressing, because climate change is altering weather conditions and seasonal timing around the world. Increasingly early growing seasons due to climate change are shifting the timing and availability of resources and niche space, which may disproportionately advantage invasive species and influence the outcome of burning. We estimated the effects of burning, start time of the growing season, and their interaction on invasive species relative cover and frequency, two metrics for species abundance and dominance. We used 25 observed prairie sites and 853 observations of 267 transects spread throughout Minnesota, USA from 2010 to 2019 to conduct our analysis. Here, we show that burning reduced the abundance of invasive cool-season grasses, leading to reduced abundance of invasive species as a whole. This reduction persisted over time for invasive cover but quickly waned for their frequency of occurrence. Additionally, and contrary to expectations that early growing season starts benefit invasive species, we found evidence that later growing season starts increased the abundance of some invasive species. However, the effects of burning on plant communities were largely unaltered by the timing of the growing season, although earlier growing season starts weakened the effectiveness of burning on Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) and smooth brome (Bromus inermis), two of the most dominant invasive species in the region. Our results suggest that prescribed burning will likely continue to be a useful conservation tool in the context of earlier growing season starts, and that changes to growing season timing will not be a primary mechanism driving increased invasion due to climate change in these ecosystems. We propose that future research seek to better understand abiotic controls on invasive species phenology in managed systems and how burning intensity and timing interact with spring conditions.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Identifying source populations and genetic structure for savannah elephants in human-dominated landscapes and protected areas in the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands.

We investigated the genetic metapopulation structure of elephants across the trans Rift Valley region of Kenya and Tanzania, one of the remaining strongholds for savannah elephants (Loxodonata africana) in East Africa, using microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers. We then examined this population structure to determine the source population for a recent colonization event of savannah elephants on community-owned land within the trans rift valley region. Four of the five sampled populations showed significant genetic differentiation (p<0.05) as measured with both mtDNA haplotypes and microsatellites. Only the samples from the adjacent Maasai Mara and Serengeti ecosystems showed no significant differentiation. A phylogenetic neighbour-joining tree constructed from mtDNA haplotypes detected four clades. Clade four corresponds to the F clade of previous mtDNA studies that reported to have originated in forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) but to also be present in some savannah elephant populations. The split between clade four and the other three clades corresponded strongly to the geographic distribution of mtDNA haplotypes across the rift valley in the study area. Clade four was the dominant clade detected on the west side of the rift valley with rare occurrences on the east side. Finally, the strong patterns of population differentiation clearly indicated that the recent colonists to the community-owned land in Kenya came from the west side of the rift valley. Our results indicate strong female philopatry within the isolated populations of the trans rift valley region, with gene flow primarily mediated via male movements. The recent colonization event from Maasai Mara or Serengeti suggests there is hope for maintaining connectivity and population viability outside formal protected areas in the region.

A simple and accurate method to sex savannah, forest and Asian elephants using noninvasive sampling techniques.

We report the development of a reliable and efficient method for molecular sexing of all extant elephant taxa. We developed primers that amplify two short Y-specific fragments (SRY1 and AMELY2) and one longer X-specific fragment (PLP1), developed from elephant sequences in one multiplex PCR. All fragments were designed to be short (< 200 basepairs) for use with degraded DNA and to be 50 basepairs apart to optimize visualization on agarose gels or as electropherograms. The multiplex PCR method matched sexes for at least 97.9% of the noninvasive savannah elephant samples and produced the expected female/male banding patterns for 14 African forest and 11 Asian elephant samples. We found this method to be more robust, efficient and less prone to contamination than previously developed sexing methods for elephants.