Prediction of genotoxic potential of cosmetic ingredients by an in silico battery system consisting of a combination of an expert rule-based system and a statistics-based system.

Genotoxicity is the most commonly used endpoint to predict the carcinogenicity of chemicals. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) M7 Guideline on Assessment and Control of DNA Reactive (Mutagenic) Impurities in Pharmaceuticals to Limit Potential Carcinogenic Risk offers guidance on (quantitative) structure-activity relationship ((Q)SAR) methodologies that predict the outcome of bacterial mutagenicity assay for actual and potential impurities. We examined the effectiveness of the (Q)SAR approach with the combination of DEREK NEXUS as an expert rule-based system and ADMEWorks as a statistics-based system for the prediction of not only mutagenic potential in the Ames test, but also genotoxic potential in mutagenicity and clastogenicity tests, using a data set of 342 chemicals extracted from the literature. The prediction of mutagenic potential or genotoxic potential by DEREK NEXUS or ADMEWorks showed high values of sensitivity and concordance, while prediction by the combination of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks (battery system) showed the highest values of sensitivity and concordance among the three methods, but the lowest value of specificity. The number of false negatives was reduced with the battery system. We also separately predicted the mutagenic potential and genotoxic potential of 41 cosmetic ingredients listed in the International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI) among the 342 chemicals. Although specificity was low with the battery system, sensitivity and concordance were high. These results suggest that the battery system consisting of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks is useful for prediction of genotoxic potential of chemicals, including cosmetic ingredients.

Development of QSAR models using artificial neural network analysis for risk assessment of repeated-dose, reproductive, and developmental toxicities of cosmetic ingredients.

Use of laboratory animals for systemic toxicity testing is subject to strong ethical and regulatory constraints, but few alternatives are yet available. One possible approach to predict systemic toxicity of chemicals in the absence of experimental data is quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis. Here, we present QSAR models for prediction of maximum "no observed effect level" (NOEL) for repeated-dose, developmental and reproductive toxicities. NOEL values of 421 chemicals for repeated-dose toxicity, 315 for reproductive toxicity, and 156 for developmental toxicity were collected from Japan Existing Chemical Data Base (JECDB). Descriptors to predict toxicity were selected based on molecular orbital (MO) calculations, and QSAR models employing multiple independent descriptors as the input layer of an artificial neural network (ANN) were constructed to predict NOEL values. Robustness of the models was indicated by the root-mean-square (RMS) errors after 10-fold cross-validation (0.529 for repeated-dose, 0.508 for reproductive, and 0.558 for developmental toxicity). Evaluation of the models in terms of the percentages of predicted NOELs falling within factors of 2, 5 and 10 of the in-vivo-determined NOELs suggested that the model is applicable to both general chemicals and the subset of chemicals listed in International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI). Our results indicate that ANN models using in silico parameters have useful predictive performance, and should contribute to integrated risk assessment of systemic toxicity using a weight-of-evidence approach. Availability of predicted NOELs will allow calculation of the margin of safety, as recommended by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS).