Estimating contemporary migration numbers of adults based on kinship relationships in iteroparous species.

This paper describes the development of estimators for the contemporary migration number and rate of adults between two populations in iteroparous species. The proposed estimators are based on known half-sibling (HS) and/or parent-offspring (PO) relationships observed between populations across breeding seasons. The rationale is that HS and PO pairs exhibit information about the occurrence frequency of parental movements during the breeding interval. The proposed method allows for variance in the average number of offspring per parent within and between populations. In addition, coupled with the PO pairs found within the population, the estimators can be obtained using only genetic data. Generally, a sample size representing the square root of the population size is required to obtain meaningful migration information. We describe a detailed evaluation of the performance of the proposed estimators by running an individual-based model, and the results provide guidance regarding sample sizes to ensure the required accuracy and precision. In addition, given that there are few effective methods to estimate adult movement (especially when populations cannot be genetically distinct), we discuss the usefulness of the proposed kinship assignment method in terms of conservation biology and wildlife management.

Nearly unbiased estimator of contemporary Ne /N based on kinship relationships.

This study develops a nearly unbiased estimator of the ratio of the contemporary effective mother size to the census size in a population, as a proxy of the ratio of contemporary effective size (or effective breeding size) to census size (Ne /N or Nb /N). The proposed estimator is based on both known mother-offspring (MO) and maternal-sibling (MS) relationships observed within the same cohort, in which sampled individuals in the cohort probably share MO relationships with sampled mothers. The rationale is that the frequency of MO and MS pairs contains information regarding the contemporary effective mother size and the (mature) census size, respectively. Therefore, the estimator can be obtained only from genetic data. We also evaluate the performance of the estimator by running an individual-based model. The results of this study provide the following: (a) parameter range for satisfying the unbiasedness, and (b) guidance for sample sizes to ensure the required accuracy and precision, especially when the order of the ratio is available. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the usefulness of a sibship assignment method for genetic monitoring, providing insights for interpreting environmental and/or anthropological factors fluctuating Ne /N (or Nb /N), especially in the context of conservation biology and wildlife management.

Nearly unbiased estimator of contemporary effective mother size using within-cohort maternal sibling pairs incorporating parental and nonparental reproductive variations.

In this study, we developed a nearly unbiased estimator of contemporary effective mother size in a population, which is based on a known maternal half-sibling relationship found within the same cohort. Our method allows for variance of the average number of offspring per mother (i.e., parental variation, such as age-specific fecundity) and variance of the number of offspring among mothers with identical reproductive potential (i.e., nonparental variation, such as family-correlated survivorship). We also developed estimators of the variance and coefficient of variation of contemporary effective mother size and qualitatively evaluated the performance of the estimators by running an individual-based model. Our results provide guidance for (i) a sample size to ensure the required accuracy and precision when the order of effective mother size is available and (ii) a degree of uncertainty regarding the estimated effective mother size when information about the size is unavailable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report to demonstrate the derivation of a nearly unbiased estimator of effective population size; however, its current application is limited to effective mother size and situations, in which the sample size is not particularly small and maternal half-sibling relationships can be detected without error. The results of this study demonstrate the usefulness of a sibship assignment method for estimating effective population size; in addition, they have the potential to greatly widen the scope of genetic monitoring, especially in the situation of small sample size.

Improvement of the Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) reference genome and development of male-specific DNA markers.

The Pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus orientalis, is a highly migratory species that is widely distributed in the North Pacific Ocean. Like other marine species, T. orientalis has no external sexual dimorphism; thus, identifying sex-specific variants from whole genome sequence data is a useful approach to develop an effective sex identification method. Here, we report an improved draft genome of T. orientalis and male-specific DNA markers. Combining PacBio long reads and Illumina short reads sufficiently improved genome assembly, with a 38-fold increase in scaffold contiguity (to 444 scaffolds) compared to the first published draft genome. Through analysing re-sequence data of 15 males and 16 females, 250 male-specific SNPs were identified from more than 30 million polymorphisms. All male-specific variants were male-heterozygous, suggesting that T. orientalis has a male heterogametic sex-determination system. The largest linkage disequilibrium block (3,174 bp on scaffold_064) contained 51 male-specific variants. PCR primers and a PCR-based sex identification assay were developed using these male-specific variants. The sex of 115 individuals (56 males and 59 females; sex was diagnosed by visual examination of the gonads) was identified with high accuracy using the assay. This easy, accurate, and practical technique facilitates the control of sex ratios in tuna farms. Furthermore, this method could be used to estimate the sex ratio and/or the sex-specific growth rate of natural populations.

Effects of environmental change and early-life stochasticity on Pacific bluefin tuna population growth.

Species conservation and fisheries management require approaches that relate environmental conditions to population-level dynamics, especially because environmental conditions shift due to climate change. We combined an individual-level physiological model and a conceptually simple matrix population model to develop a novel tool that relates environmental change to population dynamics, and used this tool to analyze effects of environmental changes and early-life stochasticity on Pacific bluefin tuna (PBT) population growth. We found that (i) currently, PBT population experiences a positive growth rate, (ii) somewhat surprisingly, stochasticity in early life survival increases this growth rate, (iii) sexual maturation age strongly depends on food and temperature, (iv) current fishing pressure, though high, is tolerable as long as the environment is such that PBT mature in less than 9 years of age (maturation age of up to 10 is possible in some environments), (v) PBT population growth rate is much more susceptible to changes in juvenile survival than changes in total reproductive output or adult survival. These results suggest that, to be effective, fishing regulations need to (i) focus on smaller tuna (i.e., juveniles and young adults), and (ii) mitigate adverse effects of climate change by taking into the account how future environments may affect the population growth.

Coalescent framework for prokaryotes undergoing interspecific homologous recombination.

Coalescent process for prokaryote species is theoretically considered. Prokaryotes undergo homologous recombination with individuals of the same species (intraspecific recombination) and with individuals of other species (interspecific recombination). This work particularly focuses on interspecific recombination because intraspecific recombination has been well incorporated in coalescent framework. We present a simulation framework for generating SNP (single-nucleotide polymorphism) patterns that allows external DNA integration into host genome from other species. Using this simulation tool, msPro, we observed that the joint processes of intra- and interspecific recombination generate complex SNP patterns. The direct effect of interspecific recombination includes increased polymorphism. Because interspecific recombination is very rare in nature, it generates regions with exceptionally high polymorphism. Following interspecific recombination, intraspecific recombination cuts the integrated external DNA into small fragments, generating a complex SNP pattern that appears as if external DNA was integrated multiple times. The insight gained from our work using the msPro simulator will be useful for understanding and evaluating the relative contributions of intra- and interspecific recombination events in generating complex SNP patters in prokaryotes.

Theoretical lessons for increasing algal biofuel: Evolution of oil accumulation to avert carbon starvation in microalgae.

Microalgae-derived oil is considered as a feasible alternative to fossil-derived oil. To produce more algal biomass, both algal population size and oil accumulation in algae must be maximized. Most of the previous studies have concentrated on only one of these issues, and relatively little attention has been devoted to considering the tradeoff between them. In this paper, we first theoretically investigated evolutionary reasons for oil accumulation and then by coupling population and evolutionary dynamics, we searched for conditions that may provide better yields. Using our model, we assume that algae allocate assimilated carbon to growth, maintenance, and carbon accumulation as biofuel and that the amount of essential materials (carbon and nitrate) are strongly linked in fixed proportions. Such stoichiometrically explicit models showed that (i) algae with more oil show slower population growth; therefore, the use of such algae results in lower total yields of biofuel and (ii) oil accumulation in algae is caused by carbon and not nitrate starvation. The latter can be interpreted as a strategy for avoiding the risk of increased death rate by carbon starvation. Our model also showed that both strong carbon starvation and moderately limited nitrate will promote total biofuel production. Our results highlight considering the life-history traits for a higher total yields of biofuel, which leads to insight into both establishing a prolonged culture and collection of desired strains from a natural environment.

Modeling evolutionary growth of a microRNA-mediated regulation system.

Gene duplication plays a crucial role in the development of complex biosystems, but the evolutionary forces behind the growth of biosystems are poorly understood. In this work, we introduce a model for such a growth through gene duplication. Plant microRNAs (miRNAs) are considered as a model. miRNAs are one of the non-coding small RNAs (19-25 nucleotides), which are involved in the post-transcriptional gene regulation. A single kind of miRNAs can be encoded by multiple genomic regions called miRNA genes, and can regulate multiple kinds of functional gene families. It is assumed that a single miRNA system involves all these genes, miRNA genes and their target gene families. We are interested in how duplication of miRNA genes affects the evolution of the miRNA system by focusing on the numbers of miRNA genes and their target gene families, denoted by x and y, respectively. We here theoretically explore the evolutionary growth of (x,y); the former increases by duplication of the miRNA gene while the latter increases when an independent gene family acquires a novel binding site of the miRNA by mutations. We first investigate the evolutionary patterns of (x,y) under three commonly assumed scenarios for the evolution of duplicated genes, that is, the positive and negative dosage and neofunctionalization scenarios. The results indicate that under the three scenarios, the transient process of (x,y) is unidirectional, although the direction is different depending on the model. This pattern is not consistent with the observation in the Arabidopsis thaliana genome, suggesting that a model that incorporates at least two directional evolutionary forces is needed to explain the observation. Then, such a model called the "complexity growth model" is introduced, in which we assume that duplication of miRNA genes is evolutionary advantageous in that the system can encode a complex and sophisticated pattern of regulation because multiple miRNA genes can have different expression patterns. This is helpful to optimize the regulation of a few particular functional gene families, but there is a cost; once the system is optimized for one purpose, it could be difficult for other purposes to use it. That is, duplication of miRNA genes would narrow down the potential gene families that can join the system. Our theoretical analysis revealed that this model can explain the observation of Arabidopsis miRNAs. Although we consider plant miRNAs as an example in this work, the model can be readily applied to other regulation systems with some modifications. Further development of such models would provide insights into the evolutionary growth of the complexity of biosystems.

Why do sex ratio dimorphisms exist in Quercus masting? Evolution of imperfect synchronous reproduction in Monoecious trees.

Masting is synchronous intermittent production of seeds in perennial plant populations. Some self-compatible monoecious Quercus species, such as oaks, exhibit sex ratio dimorphism and produce a certain proportion of male flowers, even in a year when no seed set occurs. To investigate sex ratio dimorphism in masting trees, we introduced sexual allocation as an evolutionary trait into the Resource Budget Model and examined the evolution of the sex ratio. Analytical and numerical findings show that (1) perfectly synchronous intermittent reproduction does not evolve; (2) if the fruiting cost of female flowers R(c) is sufficiently large and the pollen limitation beta is intermediate, annual reproduction does not evolve; (3) under conditions (2), sex ratio dimorphism can evolve across a wide region of parameter space; (4) after dimorphism is established, individuals with a female-biased sex ratio receive much more pollen supply from male-biased individuals and tend to show intermittent reproduction with or without synchrony; and (5) dimorphism is maintained with irregular and nearly discontinuous changes of sex ratio. These results suggest that sex ratio dimorphism contributes to improving pollen availability and causes resource depletion and the occurrence of intermittent reproduction in female-biased individuals.