Waist-to-height ratio cut-off points to predict obesity in adolescents and associa-tion with inflammatory markers.

Introduction: Introduction: obesity increases inflammatory molecules and cardiovascular risk even in young populations. New indicators are being investigated, including the waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) to predict obesity and the relationship with inflammatory markers in childhood and adolescence. Objective: to identify the cut-off points of the WHtR to determine obesity and its association with inflammatory markers in adolescents in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil. Methods: this is a cross-sectional study, with 2,209 adolescents aged 18 and 19, belonging to the third phase of the birth cohort entitled "RPS", carried out in 2016. The total area under the ROC curve (AUC) was identified to assess the predictive capacity of WHtR in relation to body fat percentage (%BF), obtained by air displacement plethysmography (ADP). The association of WHtR with inflammatory markers interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α) and c-reactive protein (CRP) was evaluated. Results: prevalence of obesity by the %BF was 10.3 % in males and 40.4 % in females. The cut-off points for the WHtR were 0.50 for females and 0.51 for males, with an AUC of 0.90 (95 % CI: 0.88-0.92) and 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.90-0.97). There was an association of elevated WHtR with higher levels of IL-6 and CRP (p < 0.05). Conclusion: the predictive capacity of WHtR for obesity was excellent. Elevated values of the WHtR were associated with early inflammatory markers. This study contributed to the identification of cut-off points for simple and low-cost anthropometric indicators.

Introducción: Introducción: la obesidad aumenta las moléculas inflamatorias y el riesgo cardiovascular incluso en poblaciones jóvenes. Se están investigando nuevos indicadores, incluida la relación cintura-altura (RCE) para predecir la obesidad y la relación con los marcadores inflamatorios en la infancia y la adolescencia. Objetivo: identificar los puntos de corte de la RCE para determinar la obesidad y su asociación con marcadores inflamatorios en adolescentes de São Luís, estado de Maranhão, Brasil. Métodos: se trata de un estudio transversal con 2.209 adolescentes de 18 y 19 años pertenecientes a la tercera etapa de la cohorte de nacimiento denominada "RPS", realizado en 2016. Se identificó el área total bajo la curva ROC (AUC) para evaluar la capacidad predictiva del RCE en relación al porcentaje de grasa corporal (%GC), obtenido a través del pletismografía por desplazamiento de aire (PDA). Se evaluó la asociación de la RCE con los marcadores inflamatorios interleucina-6 (IL-6), factor de necrosis tumoral (TNF-α) y proteína C reactiva (PCR). Resultados: se halló una prevalencia de obesidad por %GC del 10,3 % en hombres y 40,4 % en mujeres. Los puntos de corte para la RCE fueron 0,50 para mujeres y 0,51 para hombres, con un AUC de 0,90 (IC 95 %: 0,88-0,92) y 0,93 (IC 95 %: 0,90-0,97). Hubo una asociación de RCE de nivel superior con niveles más altos de IL-6 y PCR (p < 0,05). Conclusión: la capacidad de predicción de la RCE para la obesidad fue excelente y los valores elevados de RCE se asociaron con marcadores inflamatorios tempranos. Este estudio contribuyó a la identificación de puntos de corte para indicadores antropométricos simples y de bajo coste.

EXCESS DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES AND BY COVID-19 IN BRAZIL IN 2020

ObjectiveTo estimate the 2020 all-cause and COVID-19 excess mortality according to sex, age, race/color, and state, and to compare mortality rates by selected causes with that of the five previous years in Brazil. MethodsData from the Mortality Information System were used. Expected deaths for 2020 were estimated from 2015 to 2019 data using a negative binomial log-linear model. ResultsExcess deaths in Brazil in 2020 amounted to 13.7%, and the ratio of excess deaths to COVID-19 deaths was 0.90. Reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases, and external causes, and an increase in ill-defined causes were all noted. Excess deaths were also found to be heterogeneous, being higher in the Northern, Center-Western, and Northeastern states. In some states, the number of COVID-19 deaths was lower than that of excess deaths, whereas the opposite occurred in others. Moreover, excess deaths were higher in men, in those aged 20 to 59, and in black, yellow, or indigenous individuals. Meanwhile, excess mortality was lower in women, individuals aged 80 years or older, and in whites. Additionally, deaths among those aged 0 to 19 were 7.2% lower than expected, with reduction in mortality from respiratory diseases and external causes. There was also a drop in mortality due to external causes in men and in those aged 20 to 39 years. Furthermore, reductions in deaths from CVD and neoplasms were noted in some states and groups. ConclusionThere is evidence of underreporting of COVID-19 deaths and of the possible impact of restrictive measures in the reduction of deaths from external causes and respiratory diseases. The impacts of COVID-19 on mortality were heterogeneous among the states and groups, revealing that regional, demographic, socioeconomic, and racial differences expose individuals in distinct ways to the risk of death from both COVID-19 and other causes.

Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is more than halfway through the herd immunity threshold in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

BackgroundFew population-based studies on the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been performed to date, and most of them have used lateral flow immunoassays with finger-prick, which may yield false-negative results and thus underestimate the true infection rate. MethodsA population-based household survey was performed in the State of Maranhao, Brazil, from 27 July 2020 to 8 August 2020 to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 using a serum testing electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. A three-stage cluster sampling stratified by four state regions was used. The estimates took clustering, stratification, and non-response into account. Qualitative detection of IgM and IgG antibodies was performed in a fully-automated Elecsys(R) Anti-SARS-CoV-2 electrochemiluminescence immunoassay on the Cobas(R) e601 analyser (Roche Diagnostics). FindingsA total of 3156 individuals were interviewed. Seroprevalence of total antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was 40{middle dot}4% (95%CI 35{middle dot}6-45{middle dot}3). Population adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions was higher at the beginning of the pandemic than in the last month. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were significantly lower among mask wearers and among those who maintained social and physical distancing in the last month compared to their counterparts. Among the infected, 62{middle dot}2% had more than three symptoms, 11{middle dot}1% had one or two symptoms, and 26{middle dot}0% were asymptomatic. The infection fatality rate was 0{middle dot}17%, higher for males and advanced age groups. The ratio of estimated infections to reported cases was 22{middle dot}2. InterpretationTo the best of our knowledge, the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 estimated in this population-based survey was the highest and the closest to the herd immunity threshold reported to date. Our results suggest that the herd immunity threshold is not as low as 20%, but at least higher than or equal to around 40%. The infection fatality rate was one of the lowest reported so far, and the proportion of asymptomatic cases was low.