Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventions.

BACKGROUND: Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach. METHODS: This study used individual and household-level data from the 2015 and 2018 annual malaria indicator surveys on Bioko Island, as well as remotely-sensed environmental data in multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the odds of malaria infection. The analyses were stratified by urban and rural settings and by survey year. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence was higher in 10-14-year-old children and similar between female and male individuals. After adjusting for demographic factors and other covariates, many of the variables investigated showed no significant association with malaria infection. The factor most strongly associated was history of travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea (mEG), which increased the odds significantly both in urban and rural settings (people who travelled had 4 times the odds of infection). Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net decreased significantly the odds of malaria across urban and rural settings and survey years (net users had around 30% less odds of infection), highlighting their contribution to malaria control on the Island. Improved housing conditions indicated some protection, though this was not consistent across settings and survey year. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria risk on Bioko Island is heterogeneous and determined by a combination of factors interacting with local mosquito ecology. These interactions grant further investigation in order to better adapt control according to need. The single most important risk factor identified was travel to mEG, in line with previous investigations, and represents a great challenge for the success of malaria control on the Island.

Real-time, spatial decision support to optimize malaria vector control: The case of indoor residual spraying on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

Public health interventions require evidence-based decision-making to maximize impact. Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are designed to collect, store, process and analyze data to generate knowledge and inform decisions. This paper discusses how the use of a SDSS, the Campaign Information Management System (CIMS), to support malaria control operations on Bioko Island has impacted key process indicators of indoor residual spraying (IRS): coverage, operational efficiency and productivity. We used data from the last five annual IRS rounds (2017 to 2021) to estimate these indicators. IRS coverage was calculated as the percentage of houses sprayed per unit area, represented by 100x100 m map-sectors. Optimal coverage was defined as between 80% and 85%, and under and overspraying as coverage below 80% and above 85%, respectively. Operational efficiency was defined as the fraction of map-sectors that achieved optimal coverage. Daily productivity was expressed as the number of houses sprayed per sprayer per day (h/s/d). These indicators were compared across the five rounds. Overall IRS coverage (i.e. percent of total houses sprayed against the overall denominator by round) was highest in 2017 (80.2%), yet this round showed the largest proportion of oversprayed map-sectors (36.0%). Conversely, despite producing a lower overall coverage (77.5%), the 2021 round showed the highest operational efficiency (37.7%) and the lowest proportion of oversprayed map-sectors (18.7%). In 2021, higher operational efficiency was also accompanied by marginally higher productivity. Productivity ranged from 3.3 h/s/d in 2020 to 3.9 h/s/d in 2021 (median 3.6 h/s/d). Our findings showed that the novel approach to data collection and processing proposed by the CIMS has significantly improved the operational efficiency of IRS on Bioko. High spatial granularity during planning and deployment together with closer follow-up of field teams using real-time data supported more homogeneous delivery of optimal coverage while sustaining high productivity.